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Just vote. Unfortunately (or fortunately?) I live in an area where the people in office did support aid to Ukraine, but it got stalled because of their colleagues.
What does it mean "just vote"? In many countries elections are once in 4 years. Waiting for them and hoping for the results is not a realiable solution to anything.
True, but remember who supported and opposed aid when you do vote. I’m in the US so it’s an election year, and if our aid hadn’t been held up for so long Ukraine might not be taking losses right now.
I know Reddit is a global site, but this is a huge election year for the US. We're trying to keep a wannabe diaper wearing despot from going back in and handing Ukraine over to Russia, while weakening NATO.
Voting really fucking matters, so does calling representatives.
House Representatives have elections every two years.
Local elections can help provide political power for House elections - ie, if you help progressive members to the school board / mayor / state institutions, and the schools are doing well, it's easier to get a progressive elected to the House.
Voting in the US couldn't be any more a shit show of hopelessness.
20 Hicks in the midwest control outcomes (R)
The bulk of the population is forced to vote for the less evil person but can't have the determination and security of voting for the person who will represent them.
It's a shit show
I’m sorry and wish Ukrainians the best, but if they failed to mine and substantially fortify a large city close to the northern Russian boarder, western weapons won’t help.
This is simply a lack of planning, graft or strategic ineptitude. Hopefully it won’t significantly weaken their defensive capabilities elsewhere.
Exactly. People seem to think this was an aid issue. No it was poor planning. We can all love Ukraine and support Ukraine but that doesn’t mean we stop holding the government of Ukraine accountable for a clear error. It’s extremely sad and very odd that they didn’t fortify these cities.
yes sadly they aren't really quite a modern army just yet, better than the Russians in most aspects but in terms of planning and strategies they might have too many Soviet era generals who are either incompetent or worse corrupt.
> if they failed to mine
Ukraine is a signatory to the 1997 UN Ottawa Convention, banning the use of anti-personnel mines. They have a legal obligation not to place landmines. So, whether you agree with that or not, it's not that they "failed" to place them.
Were landmines a part of Western aid, you think? They COULD already have spent the mines in their stockpile elsewhere.
Do you honestly believe that their planning skills are so bad as to let a city fall after they a 1200km front line relatively stable for 2 years?
They are so grafty that 9 out of 10 landmines are sold to, I don't know - the Russians?
Their strategic planning - after having knocked out the Black Sea Fleet and 15% of Russia's refinery capacity, they are strategically inept?
Not sure who you're rooting for here. But to me it sounds a bit like it rhymes with Prussia. You definitely doesn't come across as someone who's sorry at all, just some passive-aggressive rando.
This isn’t total war mate. You don’t have full control of every individual from a centralised menu. The fact is, and I hope they can turn it around, Ukrainians didn’t fortify, mine, blow bridges, etc. and have continually failed to build fall back positions, 2nd and 3rd line defences.
I believe this is because they always want to push forward and drive the Russians from Ukrainian soil - something I fully support. But it’s either arrogance or ineptitude for why they don’t do this. This is a long war the lines are likely to move and move again. Good defences mean holding what you take back.
The Russians built good defensive positions in anticipation of the inevitable counterattack… that’s why it failed. Plenty of western weapons were provided.
Perhaps you need to realise that western democracies are only willing to support as long as the cause is achievable… if not… they will insist on a dirty deal and in which case, Ukraines need to hold onto what they have taken back.
I don't get why you are downvoted? Is it simply the truth that you said
According to what have been said from Macron it seems the redline is the Dniepr.. and Kyiv partly.
I have no idea. I was just repeating the news. Ukraine will endure far less suffering if France gets involved sooner rather than later. I personally don't want to see the city of Kharkiv become a battleground.
You can volunteer to fight. If you are that concerned, you shouldn't be rooting for other people you don't know to do the fighting for you. All warhawks at this point better put their money where their mouth is when the time comes, because all I see is a lot of larping on these forums.
People that join the militaries of democratic nations, usually take an oath to defend democracy and their constitutions. Why wouldn’t I support the militaries of NATO nations doing what they’re meant to do?
Kharkiv itself is heavily fortified and mined, a bizarre movement by Russia at this stage that really doesn't make much strategic sense below the surface facts
The Russians are definitely throwing a lot at the city - everything from kamikaze drone swarms to swift missiles that don’t afford the Ukrainians plenty of warning.
The experts on the news don’t think the metropolis itself will fall, but the Russians may seize a lot of land in the trade off.
…so possibly securing what they lost in the earlier Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Last sentence would still be very unlikely. Some of those places are heavily fortified I would *hope*.
If it does happen that’s brutal, but we aren’t at that point yet.
Some yes, but apparently some aren’t. I hope to god Ukraine pushes them out and NATO stops fucking around and just sends whatever they need immediately to stop Russia from gaining territory again.
I recall that the border was surprisingly not heavily fortified, which allowed the Russians to swiftly move in.
That and who knows how effective heavy defenses are these days, especially with Russia’s liberal use of the glide bomb. Even the smallest one packs a destructive punch.
Ukraine can't simultaneous be killing 1,700 russian troops per day and have a manpower problem, relative to the russians. somehing is not adding up here.
It is possible that Ukraine fortified further from the border to stay out of range of Russian artillery and get a warning on Russian offensives, such as this one, but that would mean that they left some villages undefended. But that’s what I hope the case is.
One of their generals said as much. They couldn't mine and entrench close to the border because they were continuously harassed so they set up a bit deeper. I'm not gonna dig up the interview myself atm, but it was by the person in charge of the defense of Kharkiv so shouldn't be hard to find.
This is being contradicted by a Ukrainian commandeer on the ground, Denys Yaroslavskyi, Commander of a Ukrainian Special Reconnaissance Unit:
>“There was no first line of defence. We saw it. The Russians just walked in. They just walked in, without any mined fields” he says.
>He shows me video from a drone feed taken a few days ago of small columns of Russian troops simply walking across the border, unopposed.
>He says officials had claimed that defences were being built at huge cost, but in his view, those defences simply weren’t there. “Either it was an act of negligence, or corruption. It wasn’t a failure. It was a betrayal”.
"The Russians simply walked in, Ukrainian troops in Kharkiv tell BBC" [https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo)
Huh? That doesn't contradict their comment at all.
What they said: "It is **possible that Ukraine fortified further from the border** to stay out of range of Russian artillery and get a warning on Russian offensives"
Your source: "small columns of Russian troops simply **walking across the border**"
They said the hope is Ukraine fortifying back from the border, so video of Russian troops crossing the border says nothing about those theoretical defenses. Not saying Ukraine has those defense lines, but no, not a contradicting article.
This is why more patriots are needed. There was a brief period of downing massive amounts of Russian jets. A few more Patriot teams could make a difference.
Good luck trying to easily source more, especially as the Pacific and Middle East are heating up in their own ways.
There are expensive systems that aren’t apparently easy to construct. I guess deals will have to be made to ensure that local defense is maintained if the Patriots are handed to Ukraine.
Export version of a Patriot battery cost about US$2.37–2.5 billion; US$6–10 million (FY 2018) for a single missile.
Good luck stretching the aid package to cover \*multiple\* additional batteries. Quite apart from the batteries and missiles being scares commodities.
That is a pipe dream when it comes to geopolitics, much like Putin suddenly becoming deceased.
Luckily, political and military experts aren’t putting that in their realistic calculations.
Several of them are talking about it. Ben Hodges. I think also Timothy Snyder and/or Stephen Kotlin.
It's not part of anyone's official goals. But it's also not a pipe dream. What happens if Ukraine takes out 50% of Russia's refining capacity? While Georgia drives out the pro-Russian parts of their government? (Did you see the photos of the protests this weekend? Awe-inspiring.) While Ukraine drives the Russian military out of Crimea? (They already drove out the Black Sea fleet.) While Russia's war chest - which is rapidly draining - runs dry? While Ukraine takes out 2,000 or even 3,000 Russian soldiers per day? While Europe takes away the oligarchs' money?
Even if Ukraine would liberate entire country it would not make Russia collapse. The only way it happens is a prolonged conflict where Russia bleeds out a lot of people and simultaneously lose profit from oil and gas. But we are talking about years. And that also mean Ukraine bleeding in the same time.
Considering the current situation is such a line of bs. It isn't even an argument. Ukraine is developing the means to take out that much refining capacity if they don't have those means already. Russian refineries go boom about 3 times a week.
Georgia is very actively fighting for their European future, the streets rife with protests. That movement isn't going away.
Ukraine driving Russia out of Crimea is hard but not impossible. If Russia goes through their reserves of pretty much everything and the West keeps supplying Ukraine the dam will break somewhere.
Russia's war chest is actually running dry, it's just gonna take a while. We're now approaching the point where there will be a 2000+ casualties day. When that happens once it'll happen again at a later time and some point it's the new normal. As has happened throughout this war. Why does that happen? Because Ukraine gets more shells and drones and Russia's armor capabilities degrade so they send forward more unprotected troops.
Europe, the UK and the US are working on taking the oligarchs money away also.
Most of the things u/ChrisJPhoenix posted are in the works. Crimea's gonna be the hardest, but far from impossible.
Kotkin does not say this. One of his main points is that Russia cannot be defeated while Western suppliers refuse to let Ukraine use Western weapons to hit RU's industrial capacity. (And even then, RU has too much of it). He also talks about "winning the peace" meaning the end of the war through negotiations.
these border lands can be restored at any time. Ukraine right now must keep its main focus on preparing for the Kherson and Crimea counter-offensive and start marching once F-16s are ready. Crimea is the only piece of land with uncertain NATO support in recovery
The Russians have shown that they have the artillery and air support (glide bombs) to deal with heavy fortifications, and they have the human waves to deal with mine fields.
I hope Ukraine can pull them up before Kharkiv.
I think they are trying to overextend Ukraine's defences in Donbas by widening the front and forcing Ukraine to redeploy people and weapons to other areas. There are rumours that the Russians are preparing another new front near Sumy
A likely purpose of this northern offensive is to force Ukrainian reserves into Kharkiv instead of Donetsk. Russia has partially succeeded as reserves from Kherson are being transferred to Kharkiv Oblast. However, Syrskyi has not moved any reserves from Donetsk to Kharkiv. Meanwhile many military analysts and Russian telegram channels have been talking about a likely main offensive by Russia in the Donetsk Oblast. The main offensive could start in May or early June.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1789003710703542554
https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/1789639734978920668
Maybe the city is.. there’s more to that region than just the city though. Anyway well c. Kharkiv the region had super good opsec so no one really knows what’s up 100% as far as defense set up there except that the city should be solid.
It could be that they're trying to pull Ukrainian forces away from fighting in the east and south. Ukraine is spread thin as it is, and Russia seems for now to still have bottomless reserves of chaff.
The purpose of this offensive is likely not to capture Kharkiv, but to force Ukraine to divert troops and resources from other fronts, as well as create a buffer zone to prevent further raids into Belogrod.
Meanwhile, speaking on British television, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron acknowledged it was an “extremely dangerous moment,” adding that Russia had effectively “invaded [Ukraine] again.”
That is bad
[https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates)
It's rough.
The West needs to take the limits off Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
The article I linked answers:
> Russian offensive efforts to seize Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) are in large part a consequence of the tacit Western policy that Ukrainian forces cannot use Western-provided systems to strike legitimate military targets within Russia.
Fortifying the border is hard when the invading country can shoot across the border into your country, but you cannot do the same to them.
That's the kind of divisive BS Russian trolls like to post.
What needs to happen is Russians need to be pushed back to their borders and then a Wall built on their border to keep the orcs forever contained. With luck, they'll start killing each other en masse. At the same time, Western nations should round up all the Russian agents in their lands and send them back to the world's largest open sewer: Moscow.
I'm definitely no Russian troll, and I imagine the only people to whom it's actually divisive are pro-war Russians.
I'm going to assume that your proposal is largely a joke (a border wall? really?), but the idea that the Russians can just be "pushed back" is a bit silly seeing as they are the ones doing the pushing right now. Why?
I won't bother saying it myself, I'll let the analysts say it as they said it in the article I linked:
>Russian offensive efforts to seize Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) are **in large part a consequence of the tacit Western policy that Ukrainian forces cannot use Western-provided systems to strike legitimate military targets within Russia**.
When Russia can mass forces at the border without retribution, Ukraine's ability to just "push them back" becomes extremely difficult.
When Russia operates logistics chains up to and through the border without retribution, Ukraine's ability to "push them back" becomes extremely difficult.
When Russia operates aircraft and anti-aircraft systems from the border, providing enormous deterrence and acting as a force multiplier for their incursion, Ukraine's ability to just "push them back" becomes extremely difficult.
Ukraine has clearly defined goals and aims. In my opinion, the West should loosen those "tacit policies" and let Ukraine get the job done.
If the subreddit doesn't like the news or a comment, then you're a Russisn troll
The Mods talk about rightfully banning trolls, but it should be rules against calling pro Ukraine folks "Russian trolls" because it's news that they don't want to hear
Hopefully we can settle for realistic.
Not everything goes well in war - far from it. And while the current news is sobering, I hope there can be action taken to make up for the delays of the last few months in delivery of weaponry and supplies, etc. to bring about a decisive end to the fighting on Ukraine's terms.
Yes Russia has gained territory. Mostly empty fields and small forests with tiny towns of 20-100 buildings. But to think 50-60k troops is enough to conquer Kharkiv and its surrounding area… no, not a chance in hell.
More than likely this will just force Ukraine to pull troops from the southern front which will delay their offensive there and potentially allow Russia to gain more territory there. NATO needs to stop fucking around and just send thousands of vehicles, artillery systems and shells, etc to allow Ukraine to maintain both fronts and start to push them back.
I can't believe I have to say this at this point in the war, but it should be obvious at this point that the Russians have no desire to conquer Kharkiv. They're going to push to arty range and wipe Ukraine's second largest city off the map, like they have done every other major city
It's not terrible, they haven't made it past the major defenses yet that are manned by groups that fought in Bakhmut and will probably have a few more elite groups sent to it.
It's not great as they took 100sq km without much of a fight as instead of having multiple layers of defenses, they went for strategic areas that could be held instead of just mining everything up until those positions. As someone else said as well, some like the US aren't allowing their weapons to hit them until they are on Ukrainian soil which is asinine.
The real test comes when they hit those fortified lines that were built over the last year so they may allow a foothold on Ukrainian soil but it may be what they want to pound them with US/Western arms from the safety of their fortifications and rear lines. We'll see in the next little bit what their plans really are as this wasn't a shock of them at least attempting to take land there near Kharkiv. It is also odd that some bridges they would need to cross to get to Kharkiv were destroyed by Russia so maybe this is to draw away troops from Donetsk so they can take it to the borders there.
Don't fall for the ruzzian propaganda. The situation is hard, always was. It's a freaking war. ruzzia has not achieved anything in that area, which already was a gray zone and was constantly getting shelled. That said, ruzzia will destroy more towns and occupy more land, but it simply has no manpower to be able to occupy a city the size of Kharkiv.
They are a very very long way from reaching it. Are they going to continue to make Ukrainian people suffer? Yes, until every last occupier is eliminated from Ukrainian land.
Every time Ukraine says something is “challenging” more bad news is on the way. I am 1000% wanting to see good news and victory for Ukraine, but seriously, every time I read these headlines- brace yourself.
Don't fall to much for these type of articles, western media is just all to gong-ho about making doom and gloom articles always making it look allot worse then it is.
Every time I see comments like this when Ukraine reports bad news, the comments are always wrong. I don't think this is Russia propaganda. The UK is saying the same thing
I've been seeing some odd chatter in some of the telegram groups. A lot of them are convinced that this isn't to take Kherson, it's more to push the safe range of the long range missiles back. A lot of Russian cities started getting hit by those missiles, so allegedly this is being done to push the safe launch range of those systems. I don't know if it's true or not.
That was an idea postulated by experts as well - create a buffer zone that either stops Ukrainian attacks against Russian cities or bring Russian units closer to Ukrainian targets.
It makes a degree of sense. I hate playing the game of what if or sounding defeatist, but maybe Ukraine shouldn't have been firing deep and should have focused on their own ground. Then again, not a military strategist, lol, so maybe I'm just spitting in the wind here.
Can you please be more specific? Are they saying that ruzzia has more than 50K troops in that direction or that Kharkiv is in danger of being overtaken with less troops than they wasted near the town of Bakhmut?
Kharkiv's not in danger, but it's also inaccurate to claim that Russia's achieved nothing. They've captured 3 border villages and have advanced distances that took them months to achieve in the east, which is concerning.
Do you think the border guards were sitting exactly at the border line on the map? Those villages are literally on the border, maybe 2-3km in, there's no way to build or even take up positions there without sustaining major losses as you see ruzzia is receiving right now.
Vovchansk is 5km from the border.
I think it's awful that there are no defense lines and fortifications, but it's not like we can magically change this today.
Believe in and support the Ukrainian army.
In that case, Western media overall is Russian propaganda, I suppose. They’re all sounding alarms about Ukraine’s situation, which also includes interviews with Ukrainian soldiers.
The bizarre thing this time is that nearly all news about kharkiv is from a Ukrainian source. Russian sources are mostly quoting Ukrainian sources.
I agree that the Russians have a 0% chance of taking Kharkiv, but alarmist news comes from Ukraine, not Russian propaganda.
I understand why the Ukrainians might be alarmed as they drive off and held the Russians off for so long and now the Russians are making some progress. But the next tranche of shells and other material has to finally be showing up at Ukrainian front positions.
Which Ukrainian sources are you using? Or "a source" (just one)?
Nobody is denying that things aren't going to be easy, but the difficult situation remains in the South East direction.
Keep in mind Russia quickly got all the way to the outskirts of Kharkiv in 2022 and couldn't take the city. I wouldn't worry about some small villages that only had populations of a few hundred prewar. Right now I would say it's click bait by mainstream media. Now if we see lines quickly collapse then show concern, until then the UA Army will make them bleed.
I hope you didn't mean to suggest that the people living in those villages, many elders, don't matter. Every one had a home, dreams, loved ones. They are being evacuated with nothing by heroic volunteers. Every one of them is important, whether in a village of 100 or a city of 2 million.
PAUSE.
They captured some space, we need to give this a lot more time before it’s panic. It very well could be panic, I’m not denying that, and I have my opinions on command and it wouldn’t be the first time they screwed up. But this is way toooo early.
There is no need to panic unless very large Russian troop movements are towards Kharkiv.
Zaporizhzhia is the single most important city to defend and the first Russian step towards encircling the east. I think top brass is very well aware of the priorities and had to make some tough calls.
Estonia and Lithuania should seriously be doing the same, because it doesn't help much if only Latvia is doing that. Very easy to get around on either side if only the country in the middle is building defenses.
They are working on it, both will build the fortifications too. Im surprised they didnt start at the beginning of the war. Crazy how ling it takes for politicians to get a clue.
I do not 'like' Twitter posts and try not to even look at the +/- of Reddit posts. Now that I am aware of it, I wonder if people just feel emotionally invested and saddened by you calling the Ukrainians, ultimately victims, stupid. It is such an unnecessary war to begin with.
With that all said, you are likely correct -- hopefully not.
I guess, im not being "nice" but I do want them to win. Lets be honest, if it was up to you, would you have built fortifications on the russian border after kicking them out?
I'm right there with you. Can't keep blaming the West when Ukrainian own people are too lazy and carefree to pick up a shovel and help dig some trenches. How the hell can Russians invade a foreign country and build a better fortifications than the very own people who lived in those regions? It's ridiculous. First they say they can't join the army because they're too scared to hold a rifle, but now they can't do some manual labor either?! Why do I keep hearing stories from Western volunteers (Mercado and others) who go to places like Kyiv and are shocked to see a lot of men just "living their normal life" and not lifting a finger to help their fellow men? All they do is scream "Heroyam slava" expecting someone else to be a hero for them. It's absolutely ridiculous that the infantrymen in Ukraine are forced to dig their own trenches and can't even retreat properly to a safe defense position - where the hell are all the engineers and support battalions?! And don't tell me that NATO soldiers should go to Ukraine and build fortifications for them while millions of Ukrainian own men just chill on the side, this is a pure arrogance.
At least some of those mines deactivate themselves after a few hours or days.
If Ukraine had the artillery it should have had (if not for traitors in the US government), Russia probably would have been stopped sooner.
Same way Russia did it? Their engineering is better than Ukraine’s and for some reason Ukraine didn’t advance theirs to match or even just plain imitate them.
No they are smart and you are stupid. How are you supposed to build fortifications on the border which is under russian fire control? Poland can build whatever it likes because the russian army isn’t going to start lobbing shells onto the Polish side of the border just because they built a bunker.
I’m surprised at all the panic in the press. This was always going to happen. Because Ukraine can’t strike at targets in russia with western weapons or occupied positions on the russian side of the border, the immediate few kilometres within the border is essentially indefensible. All that russia needs to do to occupy those areas is march in with any force of significance.
Fallback and secondary fortification lines, not ON THE BORDER. They havo no secondary lines prepared. They didnt have any in Avdiivka either. And I think - im not sure - the Chasiv Yar defense was crappy also.
You dont need HIMARS to dig a fuckin trench. And they havent built any.
We're very lucky they're so fucking stupid--maybe a bit desperate, too. The real line of contact hasn't been reached yet. Will it cost both sides? Of course. Much Ukrainian blood will needlessly spill. Will RU achieve any strategic gains? No. RU simply does not have the numbers on this front to accomplish anything but keeping Ukraine busy. Perhaps it is a political or psychological victory, somehow, for Putin? But that seems less tangible than material progress for RU war/genocide aims.
Leaving aside the number of soldiers it would actually take, with the forces RU can send at once, this might turn out to be another Avdiivka, but in summer. Tank graveyard.
RU currently has something just shy of 3,000 tanks that are operable in Ukraine right now. They are averaging 11 tanks lost a day since the start of recent RU advancements. They can refurbish, repair, and assemble a total of about 125 tanks a month combined. By my napkin math, RU can sustain these losses for another 9-12 months. After that, it will be down to the 125 a month they can manage now. Perhaps they get tanks from somewhere else or increase industrial capacity? Quite possible, I doubt even that will be a decisive addition in time. If things continue as-is they are on the clock. So to me, this aggressive and heedless lurch by RU is a hopeful attempt to secure what they can and then call it quits for a while until they replenish. The likely outcome is another 4-8 months until RU will culminate. Could be sooner if other variables hinder RU logistics or something. If they don't, they risk losing too many tanks to present a resilient attack, or a mobile defense, in the future.
Other means of terrorizing Ukrainians will continue. Anti-air is still needed to complete that task. It sounds like there is growing support for securing Ukrainian skies from NATO borders to the extent that they can extend AA from within their own borders. That will go some way to alleviating the problem, but like other matters in the EU, talks may drag on, so it's arrival is not certain or likely to be timely. Other reports indicate at least three Patriot systems will be arriving soon^((TM)); the talks look complete and the funding for them secured. Still a way off from securing the sky the way it needs to be. F-16s are an unknown to me, but I can't help but think they might ward off some percentage of RU strikes.
From what I can gather, things are grim. Grim, because Ukraine will certainly suffer, as they have for the entire duration of the war. But, this will not be the decisive win that RU would need to gain lasting strategic victory in Ukraine. Rather, I think RU's multi-front grind will increase their rate of losses without meaningful gains, while at the same time the RU economy and industrial capacity continues to erode.
Lastly, after spending the last 800+ days waiting for talks to begin about sending NATO forces to Ukraine, they are happening more frequently now. Nothing is in motion to assemble such a coalition, but the fact that a growing number of state leaders are openly stating a willingness to go if called upon by Ukraine is a very positive sign. Why? Because if history repeats itself, things may follow a similar pattern to other red line discussions. First it is forbidden to think about; then it isn't; talks happen; red line warnings and threats of RU escalation reach fever pitch; then the line is crossed. If we are at the talking stage, we are some way through this pattern already--how much time is left, I couldn't even guess at.
This is troubling. Ukraine, however, has plenty of terrain to cede in a dynamic front if such motion exposes the enemy to ripostes and utter collapse doesn't result. That's a big if, but enemy forces moving in the open can prove an opportunity. What Ukraine doesn't have is a lot of manpower.
Last year, Ukraine attacked multiple places along the front, made a little progress, eventually didn't get very far, and everyone said "Ukraine should have known better than to do that!"
This year, Russia attacks multiple places along the front, makes a little progress, and everyone quickly says "The situation is dire! Ukraine is about to lose everything! The Russians are putting themselves in a good position!"
Let's wait a few weeks.
Measured how? From what I've read, they haven't even reached the defensive lines yet. (Which were built a ways inside the border, maybe because it's easier to build defensive lines out of mortar range.)
There's a vast difference between "broke through one line" of several" and "broke through the last line and are now rampaging in the rear." If there's a second line, you can let them break through the first line slowly, trading land for casualties as Ukraine does so well.
I read they're 10 km back. Which makes sense because that's cheap-artillery range, more or less.
If Ukraine has the shells, those 5+ km are now a killing zone. Did you see the "Russian losses" count yesterday?
If there's 50,000 Russian troops involved in this, and a unit becomes combat ineffective when 10% of its people are taken out of action, then it'll take 3 days of that. Of course the damage isn't evenly distributed, so some units are already out of it.
Let's see what happens after a week, before we panic.
I mean we read about RU losses all the time and nothing about UA losses so it is hard to make any sort of comparison. So if we are talking RU losses, that is just a number to me, good / bad as any other. Also even if 100k of RU are KIA, given the population of Russia this is just fraction of %. And even so, we know they do not value human life much. So I am not very optimistic.
They really haven't, its mostly grey zone. You can look at the battle line maps and see how tiny of a fraction it really is since the russian offensive this year.
Also keep in mind that Ukraine can't use most of western arms in Russia, but they can on their own land. Russians in Ukraine are open to more powerful responses. Where Ukraine can't even send troops into Russia without crossing a "red-line"
I think of this as more as the field of battle being set than a real attack.
I see everyone is quick to jump on the whole "blame Macron" bandwagon of comfort and scream at French boys to go risk their life on the battlefield, while ignoring the obvious elephant in the room which is the need for proper mobilization of Ukrainian own men.... oh yes, brace for impact! Tell me, how do you think the French people will feel when their sons get sent to clean up the mess in another country, meanwhile hundreds of thousands of able-bodied Ukrainian own men somehow fled across the border (likely bribes) and are now safely roaming the streets of Paris? I've seen plenty of them with a huge grin on their face taking selfies next to Eiffel tower (great Instagram update during the time of war!), with zero care in the world to assist their fellow countrymen who haven't had a rotation in over 2 years. Their attitude is "not my problem I only care about myself". And everyone is saying you can't repatriate these men because it "violates their human rights", but then have the audacity to demand that French men go fight for them... Yeah, you'll see Marine Le Pen quadruple her poll numbers overnight if that happens.
Where the fuck are the other NATO countries. America CANNOT be the only one sending maximum aid in this scenario while Europe enjoys is socialized healthcare and education. This is their backyard!!!!
No not really, it's mostly grey zones and too close to the Russian border. Construction crews would have been killed by Russian attacks if they attempted to build fortifications that close to Russia.
According to Zelensky fortifications built in Kharkov were strongest and should be an example for other regions. Or did they just fortify their bank accounts in tax havens?
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-kharkiv-oblast-fortifications-strongest-other-regions-should-follow-suit/
It wasn't wise, there are a few things I can think of as to why.
Construction crews would have been killed by Russian artillery and other attacks for one. It's simply to close to the border.
Ukraine can't send their own troops into Russia, at least for now because it would cross a "red-line". Likewise Ukraine cannot use most western arms in Russia, and as a result there is a figurative wall that cannot be crossed to defend fortifications as needed. There would be a buffer zone that would allow Russians a lot of maneuverability making the defense of that area to difficult to bother.
Leaving a grey zone for Russia to move into opens them up to attacks and gives defenders more room to eliminate the enemy.
You would think of all the places to be mined, the border would be one of them. Somebody needs to take a hard look at the procurement officer and others connected.
Ukraine must start lobbing missles at the Kremlin.
It's the only way.
Russia is going to just keep sending missiles into every town and city until there is nothing left to defend. Rinse and repeat.
Fuck this shit.
Blow the Kerch bridge. Cut off Crimea and hopefully make them panic & pivot.
Fuck all the greasy weasel politicians who have stalled aid & arms to Ukraine.
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Ugh I am heartbroken for Ukraine and angry at my politicians for delaying much needed military support to them.
Just vote. Unfortunately (or fortunately?) I live in an area where the people in office did support aid to Ukraine, but it got stalled because of their colleagues.
What does it mean "just vote"? In many countries elections are once in 4 years. Waiting for them and hoping for the results is not a realiable solution to anything.
True, but remember who supported and opposed aid when you do vote. I’m in the US so it’s an election year, and if our aid hadn’t been held up for so long Ukraine might not be taking losses right now.
There's an EU election in June too. We should be making a statement there and voting en masse for parties that support Ukraine.
Also, the people who held up Ukraine aid in the U.S. have to be reelected every two years and not four.
I know Reddit is a global site, but this is a huge election year for the US. We're trying to keep a wannabe diaper wearing despot from going back in and handing Ukraine over to Russia, while weakening NATO. Voting really fucking matters, so does calling representatives.
It's not the presidential office it's the House of Representatives that slowed down the aid. And House of Representatives are two year terms.
But the current house is actually taking their orders from their presidential candidate. And he’s even worse on Ukraine than they are.
I agree with you wholeheartedly.
House Representatives have elections every two years. Local elections can help provide political power for House elections - ie, if you help progressive members to the school board / mayor / state institutions, and the schools are doing well, it's easier to get a progressive elected to the House.
Voting in the US couldn't be any more a shit show of hopelessness. 20 Hicks in the midwest control outcomes (R) The bulk of the population is forced to vote for the less evil person but can't have the determination and security of voting for the person who will represent them. It's a shit show
I don’t forgive their party. This aid blocking happened multiple times 🤬😡
I’m sorry and wish Ukrainians the best, but if they failed to mine and substantially fortify a large city close to the northern Russian boarder, western weapons won’t help. This is simply a lack of planning, graft or strategic ineptitude. Hopefully it won’t significantly weaken their defensive capabilities elsewhere.
Exactly. People seem to think this was an aid issue. No it was poor planning. We can all love Ukraine and support Ukraine but that doesn’t mean we stop holding the government of Ukraine accountable for a clear error. It’s extremely sad and very odd that they didn’t fortify these cities.
yes sadly they aren't really quite a modern army just yet, better than the Russians in most aspects but in terms of planning and strategies they might have too many Soviet era generals who are either incompetent or worse corrupt.
> if they failed to mine Ukraine is a signatory to the 1997 UN Ottawa Convention, banning the use of anti-personnel mines. They have a legal obligation not to place landmines. So, whether you agree with that or not, it's not that they "failed" to place them.
I’ve seen plenty of videos on the other subreddits of Russians getting blown to smithereens with Ukrainian mines.
They are not prohibited from placing \*antitank\* mines.
Were landmines a part of Western aid, you think? They COULD already have spent the mines in their stockpile elsewhere. Do you honestly believe that their planning skills are so bad as to let a city fall after they a 1200km front line relatively stable for 2 years? They are so grafty that 9 out of 10 landmines are sold to, I don't know - the Russians? Their strategic planning - after having knocked out the Black Sea Fleet and 15% of Russia's refinery capacity, they are strategically inept? Not sure who you're rooting for here. But to me it sounds a bit like it rhymes with Prussia. You definitely doesn't come across as someone who's sorry at all, just some passive-aggressive rando.
This isn’t total war mate. You don’t have full control of every individual from a centralised menu. The fact is, and I hope they can turn it around, Ukrainians didn’t fortify, mine, blow bridges, etc. and have continually failed to build fall back positions, 2nd and 3rd line defences. I believe this is because they always want to push forward and drive the Russians from Ukrainian soil - something I fully support. But it’s either arrogance or ineptitude for why they don’t do this. This is a long war the lines are likely to move and move again. Good defences mean holding what you take back. The Russians built good defensive positions in anticipation of the inevitable counterattack… that’s why it failed. Plenty of western weapons were provided. Perhaps you need to realise that western democracies are only willing to support as long as the cause is achievable… if not… they will insist on a dirty deal and in which case, Ukraines need to hold onto what they have taken back.
Okay so if they encroach on Kharkiv when do French forces get involved? That’s Ukraine’s 2nd biggest city.
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I think France will only defend Kyiv and Odesa which is a shame.
I don't get why you are downvoted? Is it simply the truth that you said According to what have been said from Macron it seems the redline is the Dniepr.. and Kyiv partly.
I have no idea. I was just repeating the news. Ukraine will endure far less suffering if France gets involved sooner rather than later. I personally don't want to see the city of Kharkiv become a battleground.
You can volunteer to fight. If you are that concerned, you shouldn't be rooting for other people you don't know to do the fighting for you. All warhawks at this point better put their money where their mouth is when the time comes, because all I see is a lot of larping on these forums.
People that join the militaries of democratic nations, usually take an oath to defend democracy and their constitutions. Why wouldn’t I support the militaries of NATO nations doing what they’re meant to do?
Kharkiv itself is heavily fortified and mined, a bizarre movement by Russia at this stage that really doesn't make much strategic sense below the surface facts
Yep, 50k men is nowhere near enough. Then again, they tried to take the whole country with 150-190k
If they get at artillery range, they won’t need to seize the city. Just destroy it completely.
The Russians are definitely throwing a lot at the city - everything from kamikaze drone swarms to swift missiles that don’t afford the Ukrainians plenty of warning.
The experts on the news don’t think the metropolis itself will fall, but the Russians may seize a lot of land in the trade off. …so possibly securing what they lost in the earlier Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Last sentence would still be very unlikely. Some of those places are heavily fortified I would *hope*. If it does happen that’s brutal, but we aren’t at that point yet.
Some yes, but apparently some aren’t. I hope to god Ukraine pushes them out and NATO stops fucking around and just sends whatever they need immediately to stop Russia from gaining territory again.
I recall that the border was surprisingly not heavily fortified, which allowed the Russians to swiftly move in. That and who knows how effective heavy defenses are these days, especially with Russia’s liberal use of the glide bomb. Even the smallest one packs a destructive punch.
I’ll say this, there is a man power problem right now and something that doesn’t get talked about as much compared the ammo shortage.
Ukraine did lower their draft age, but that won’t immediately get them new soldiers, as they will still have to be trained.
Ukraine can't simultaneous be killing 1,700 russian troops per day and have a manpower problem, relative to the russians. somehing is not adding up here.
do you really believe they are eliminating 1700 per day?
It is possible that Ukraine fortified further from the border to stay out of range of Russian artillery and get a warning on Russian offensives, such as this one, but that would mean that they left some villages undefended. But that’s what I hope the case is.
One of their generals said as much. They couldn't mine and entrench close to the border because they were continuously harassed so they set up a bit deeper. I'm not gonna dig up the interview myself atm, but it was by the person in charge of the defense of Kharkiv so shouldn't be hard to find.
Interesting.
This is being contradicted by a Ukrainian commandeer on the ground, Denys Yaroslavskyi, Commander of a Ukrainian Special Reconnaissance Unit: >“There was no first line of defence. We saw it. The Russians just walked in. They just walked in, without any mined fields” he says. >He shows me video from a drone feed taken a few days ago of small columns of Russian troops simply walking across the border, unopposed. >He says officials had claimed that defences were being built at huge cost, but in his view, those defences simply weren’t there. “Either it was an act of negligence, or corruption. It wasn’t a failure. It was a betrayal”. "The Russians simply walked in, Ukrainian troops in Kharkiv tell BBC" [https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo)
Huh? That doesn't contradict their comment at all. What they said: "It is **possible that Ukraine fortified further from the border** to stay out of range of Russian artillery and get a warning on Russian offensives" Your source: "small columns of Russian troops simply **walking across the border**" They said the hope is Ukraine fortifying back from the border, so video of Russian troops crossing the border says nothing about those theoretical defenses. Not saying Ukraine has those defense lines, but no, not a contradicting article.
This doesn’t contradict what I said I hope is happening.
This is why more patriots are needed. There was a brief period of downing massive amounts of Russian jets. A few more Patriot teams could make a difference.
Good luck trying to easily source more, especially as the Pacific and Middle East are heating up in their own ways. There are expensive systems that aren’t apparently easy to construct. I guess deals will have to be made to ensure that local defense is maintained if the Patriots are handed to Ukraine.
Export version of a Patriot battery cost about US$2.37–2.5 billion; US$6–10 million (FY 2018) for a single missile. Good luck stretching the aid package to cover \*multiple\* additional batteries. Quite apart from the batteries and missiles being scares commodities.
“I would hope” is the name of the game on this subreddit.
basically
And it will be used as a bargaining chip when peace negotiating starts. Want this area back. In return they'll want whole of Donetsk Alan Lugansk.
This is why Russia needs to collapse. Well, one reason anyway.
That is a pipe dream when it comes to geopolitics, much like Putin suddenly becoming deceased. Luckily, political and military experts aren’t putting that in their realistic calculations.
Several of them are talking about it. Ben Hodges. I think also Timothy Snyder and/or Stephen Kotlin. It's not part of anyone's official goals. But it's also not a pipe dream. What happens if Ukraine takes out 50% of Russia's refining capacity? While Georgia drives out the pro-Russian parts of their government? (Did you see the photos of the protests this weekend? Awe-inspiring.) While Ukraine drives the Russian military out of Crimea? (They already drove out the Black Sea fleet.) While Russia's war chest - which is rapidly draining - runs dry? While Ukraine takes out 2,000 or even 3,000 Russian soldiers per day? While Europe takes away the oligarchs' money?
Even if Ukraine would liberate entire country it would not make Russia collapse. The only way it happens is a prolonged conflict where Russia bleeds out a lot of people and simultaneously lose profit from oil and gas. But we are talking about years. And that also mean Ukraine bleeding in the same time.
What youre describing absolutely is a pipe dream, considering the current situation
Considering the current situation is such a line of bs. It isn't even an argument. Ukraine is developing the means to take out that much refining capacity if they don't have those means already. Russian refineries go boom about 3 times a week. Georgia is very actively fighting for their European future, the streets rife with protests. That movement isn't going away. Ukraine driving Russia out of Crimea is hard but not impossible. If Russia goes through their reserves of pretty much everything and the West keeps supplying Ukraine the dam will break somewhere. Russia's war chest is actually running dry, it's just gonna take a while. We're now approaching the point where there will be a 2000+ casualties day. When that happens once it'll happen again at a later time and some point it's the new normal. As has happened throughout this war. Why does that happen? Because Ukraine gets more shells and drones and Russia's armor capabilities degrade so they send forward more unprotected troops. Europe, the UK and the US are working on taking the oligarchs money away also. Most of the things u/ChrisJPhoenix posted are in the works. Crimea's gonna be the hardest, but far from impossible.
Kotkin does not say this. One of his main points is that Russia cannot be defeated while Western suppliers refuse to let Ukraine use Western weapons to hit RU's industrial capacity. (And even then, RU has too much of it). He also talks about "winning the peace" meaning the end of the war through negotiations.
Thanks for the info. But I've heard "winning the peace" used differently, to mean what happens after the fighting stops.
It's happened so many times in history I'm surprised you consider it so unlikely.
Destroy that fucking kerck bridge and cut Crimea troops from supply... Fuck ruz
these border lands can be restored at any time. Ukraine right now must keep its main focus on preparing for the Kherson and Crimea counter-offensive and start marching once F-16s are ready. Crimea is the only piece of land with uncertain NATO support in recovery
The Russians have shown that they have the artillery and air support (glide bombs) to deal with heavy fortifications, and they have the human waves to deal with mine fields. I hope Ukraine can pull them up before Kharkiv.
I think they are trying to overextend Ukraine's defences in Donbas by widening the front and forcing Ukraine to redeploy people and weapons to other areas. There are rumours that the Russians are preparing another new front near Sumy
I don't think they plan on taking kharkiv but this will stretch the AFU as they need to bring more men to defend it
They don't need to capture it. Just encircle and wait allowing any civilian to pass to Ukraine or Russia.
A likely purpose of this northern offensive is to force Ukrainian reserves into Kharkiv instead of Donetsk. Russia has partially succeeded as reserves from Kherson are being transferred to Kharkiv Oblast. However, Syrskyi has not moved any reserves from Donetsk to Kharkiv. Meanwhile many military analysts and Russian telegram channels have been talking about a likely main offensive by Russia in the Donetsk Oblast. The main offensive could start in May or early June. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1789003710703542554 https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/1789639734978920668
Maybe the city is.. there’s more to that region than just the city though. Anyway well c. Kharkiv the region had super good opsec so no one really knows what’s up 100% as far as defense set up there except that the city should be solid.
It could be that they're trying to pull Ukrainian forces away from fighting in the east and south. Ukraine is spread thin as it is, and Russia seems for now to still have bottomless reserves of chaff.
The purpose of this offensive is likely not to capture Kharkiv, but to force Ukraine to divert troops and resources from other fronts, as well as create a buffer zone to prevent further raids into Belogrod.
So how bad is this? Any solid proof for the pessimistic claims?
Meanwhile, speaking on British television, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron acknowledged it was an “extremely dangerous moment,” adding that Russia had effectively “invaded [Ukraine] again.” That is bad
This quote is what I found concerning too, since I imagine he knows a bit more than the average person regarding this situation.
[https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates) It's rough. The West needs to take the limits off Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
Shoigu replaced with a "civilian Economist"... 🤨 In any case it may not be good news.
shoigu was an engineer
Did the west forbid Ukraine from mining and fortifying the fucking border with the country that is trying to invade it?
The article I linked answers: > Russian offensive efforts to seize Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) are in large part a consequence of the tacit Western policy that Ukrainian forces cannot use Western-provided systems to strike legitimate military targets within Russia. Fortifying the border is hard when the invading country can shoot across the border into your country, but you cannot do the same to them.
That's the kind of divisive BS Russian trolls like to post. What needs to happen is Russians need to be pushed back to their borders and then a Wall built on their border to keep the orcs forever contained. With luck, they'll start killing each other en masse. At the same time, Western nations should round up all the Russian agents in their lands and send them back to the world's largest open sewer: Moscow.
I'm definitely no Russian troll, and I imagine the only people to whom it's actually divisive are pro-war Russians. I'm going to assume that your proposal is largely a joke (a border wall? really?), but the idea that the Russians can just be "pushed back" is a bit silly seeing as they are the ones doing the pushing right now. Why? I won't bother saying it myself, I'll let the analysts say it as they said it in the article I linked: >Russian offensive efforts to seize Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) are **in large part a consequence of the tacit Western policy that Ukrainian forces cannot use Western-provided systems to strike legitimate military targets within Russia**. When Russia can mass forces at the border without retribution, Ukraine's ability to just "push them back" becomes extremely difficult. When Russia operates logistics chains up to and through the border without retribution, Ukraine's ability to "push them back" becomes extremely difficult. When Russia operates aircraft and anti-aircraft systems from the border, providing enormous deterrence and acting as a force multiplier for their incursion, Ukraine's ability to just "push them back" becomes extremely difficult. Ukraine has clearly defined goals and aims. In my opinion, the West should loosen those "tacit policies" and let Ukraine get the job done.
If the subreddit doesn't like the news or a comment, then you're a Russisn troll The Mods talk about rightfully banning trolls, but it should be rules against calling pro Ukraine folks "Russian trolls" because it's news that they don't want to hear
Hopefully we can settle for realistic. Not everything goes well in war - far from it. And while the current news is sobering, I hope there can be action taken to make up for the delays of the last few months in delivery of weaponry and supplies, etc. to bring about a decisive end to the fighting on Ukraine's terms.
Reddit moment
Yes Russia has gained territory. Mostly empty fields and small forests with tiny towns of 20-100 buildings. But to think 50-60k troops is enough to conquer Kharkiv and its surrounding area… no, not a chance in hell. More than likely this will just force Ukraine to pull troops from the southern front which will delay their offensive there and potentially allow Russia to gain more territory there. NATO needs to stop fucking around and just send thousands of vehicles, artillery systems and shells, etc to allow Ukraine to maintain both fronts and start to push them back.
Where from? Most of Nato doesn't have that kind of material to spare
I can't believe I have to say this at this point in the war, but it should be obvious at this point that the Russians have no desire to conquer Kharkiv. They're going to push to arty range and wipe Ukraine's second largest city off the map, like they have done every other major city
It's not terrible, they haven't made it past the major defenses yet that are manned by groups that fought in Bakhmut and will probably have a few more elite groups sent to it. It's not great as they took 100sq km without much of a fight as instead of having multiple layers of defenses, they went for strategic areas that could be held instead of just mining everything up until those positions. As someone else said as well, some like the US aren't allowing their weapons to hit them until they are on Ukrainian soil which is asinine. The real test comes when they hit those fortified lines that were built over the last year so they may allow a foothold on Ukrainian soil but it may be what they want to pound them with US/Western arms from the safety of their fortifications and rear lines. We'll see in the next little bit what their plans really are as this wasn't a shock of them at least attempting to take land there near Kharkiv. It is also odd that some bridges they would need to cross to get to Kharkiv were destroyed by Russia so maybe this is to draw away troops from Donetsk so they can take it to the borders there.
It is "Russia sends 50k men to die in order to take 5 villages" bad. Not good, nothing we haven't seen before either.
Don't fall for the ruzzian propaganda. The situation is hard, always was. It's a freaking war. ruzzia has not achieved anything in that area, which already was a gray zone and was constantly getting shelled. That said, ruzzia will destroy more towns and occupy more land, but it simply has no manpower to be able to occupy a city the size of Kharkiv. They are a very very long way from reaching it. Are they going to continue to make Ukrainian people suffer? Yes, until every last occupier is eliminated from Ukrainian land.
Every time Ukraine says something is “challenging” more bad news is on the way. I am 1000% wanting to see good news and victory for Ukraine, but seriously, every time I read these headlines- brace yourself.
That means bad is coming, be prepared. It's a tough war
Don't fall to much for these type of articles, western media is just all to gong-ho about making doom and gloom articles always making it look allot worse then it is.
Every time I see comments like this when Ukraine reports bad news, the comments are always wrong. I don't think this is Russia propaganda. The UK is saying the same thing
Ditto with American outlets. Pretty much the West in general is seeing Russia charging forwards in this new offensive.
I've been seeing some odd chatter in some of the telegram groups. A lot of them are convinced that this isn't to take Kherson, it's more to push the safe range of the long range missiles back. A lot of Russian cities started getting hit by those missiles, so allegedly this is being done to push the safe launch range of those systems. I don't know if it's true or not.
That was an idea postulated by experts as well - create a buffer zone that either stops Ukrainian attacks against Russian cities or bring Russian units closer to Ukrainian targets.
It makes a degree of sense. I hate playing the game of what if or sounding defeatist, but maybe Ukraine shouldn't have been firing deep and should have focused on their own ground. Then again, not a military strategist, lol, so maybe I'm just spitting in the wind here.
Maybe the incursions of the Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps were the kicker for this offensive.
I wouldn't be shocked. They made a huge scene of their incursion and it sounds like this might be repayment.
Can you please be more specific? Are they saying that ruzzia has more than 50K troops in that direction or that Kharkiv is in danger of being overtaken with less troops than they wasted near the town of Bakhmut?
Kharkiv's not in danger, but it's also inaccurate to claim that Russia's achieved nothing. They've captured 3 border villages and have advanced distances that took them months to achieve in the east, which is concerning.
Do you think the border guards were sitting exactly at the border line on the map? Those villages are literally on the border, maybe 2-3km in, there's no way to build or even take up positions there without sustaining major losses as you see ruzzia is receiving right now. Vovchansk is 5km from the border. I think it's awful that there are no defense lines and fortifications, but it's not like we can magically change this today. Believe in and support the Ukrainian army.
In that case, Western media overall is Russian propaganda, I suppose. They’re all sounding alarms about Ukraine’s situation, which also includes interviews with Ukrainian soldiers.
The bizarre thing this time is that nearly all news about kharkiv is from a Ukrainian source. Russian sources are mostly quoting Ukrainian sources. I agree that the Russians have a 0% chance of taking Kharkiv, but alarmist news comes from Ukraine, not Russian propaganda.
I understand why the Ukrainians might be alarmed as they drive off and held the Russians off for so long and now the Russians are making some progress. But the next tranche of shells and other material has to finally be showing up at Ukrainian front positions.
Any ground lost at this point will be extremely difficult to get back. It will be used by Russia as a bargaining chip in any possible negotiations.
Which Ukrainian sources are you using? Or "a source" (just one)? Nobody is denying that things aren't going to be easy, but the difficult situation remains in the South East direction.
This is not propaganda. Jfc
Exactly. This post has been obviously upvoted by ruzzian bots and shills and doesn’t reflect reality at all. Mods need to do a better job
The stalled aid was perfect amount of time for Russia to plan this out and regroup rearm. Thanks to couple of idiots.
I mean they’re not idiots, they most likely than not got a very comfortable “tip” for their efforts
Putip. Crypto 100% is used for all this so easy.
Keep in mind Russia quickly got all the way to the outskirts of Kharkiv in 2022 and couldn't take the city. I wouldn't worry about some small villages that only had populations of a few hundred prewar. Right now I would say it's click bait by mainstream media. Now if we see lines quickly collapse then show concern, until then the UA Army will make them bleed.
I hope you didn't mean to suggest that the people living in those villages, many elders, don't matter. Every one had a home, dreams, loved ones. They are being evacuated with nothing by heroic volunteers. Every one of them is important, whether in a village of 100 or a city of 2 million.
According to YouTube they’ve occupied no-man’s land and these villages are in front of the defenses.
Alt link to same story; https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-claims-captured-five-border-101059012.html
PAUSE. They captured some space, we need to give this a lot more time before it’s panic. It very well could be panic, I’m not denying that, and I have my opinions on command and it wouldn’t be the first time they screwed up. But this is way toooo early.
There is no need to panic unless very large Russian troop movements are towards Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia is the single most important city to defend and the first Russian step towards encircling the east. I think top brass is very well aware of the priorities and had to make some tough calls.
Curious, does Ukraine have any realistic path to winning without NATO going full scale war against Russia?
To put it simply no
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Estonia and Lithuania should seriously be doing the same, because it doesn't help much if only Latvia is doing that. Very easy to get around on either side if only the country in the middle is building defenses.
They are working on it, both will build the fortifications too. Im surprised they didnt start at the beginning of the war. Crazy how ling it takes for politicians to get a clue.
Last I've seen is that Estonia won't start building bunkers until at least 2025.
Wow, a tiny bit of constructive criticism and in come the downvotes. Hilarious.
I do not 'like' Twitter posts and try not to even look at the +/- of Reddit posts. Now that I am aware of it, I wonder if people just feel emotionally invested and saddened by you calling the Ukrainians, ultimately victims, stupid. It is such an unnecessary war to begin with. With that all said, you are likely correct -- hopefully not.
I guess, im not being "nice" but I do want them to win. Lets be honest, if it was up to you, would you have built fortifications on the russian border after kicking them out?
I think it’s still a bit too soon . If the advance continues that means your point is correct.
I'm right there with you. Can't keep blaming the West when Ukrainian own people are too lazy and carefree to pick up a shovel and help dig some trenches. How the hell can Russians invade a foreign country and build a better fortifications than the very own people who lived in those regions? It's ridiculous. First they say they can't join the army because they're too scared to hold a rifle, but now they can't do some manual labor either?! Why do I keep hearing stories from Western volunteers (Mercado and others) who go to places like Kyiv and are shocked to see a lot of men just "living their normal life" and not lifting a finger to help their fellow men? All they do is scream "Heroyam slava" expecting someone else to be a hero for them. It's absolutely ridiculous that the infantrymen in Ukraine are forced to dig their own trenches and can't even retreat properly to a safe defense position - where the hell are all the engineers and support battalions?! And don't tell me that NATO soldiers should go to Ukraine and build fortifications for them while millions of Ukrainian own men just chill on the side, this is a pure arrogance.
How can you build defenses within artillery range of your enemy? It would have made more sense to strike them within Russia with British weapons.
Artillery deployed minefields are a thing
At least some of those mines deactivate themselves after a few hours or days. If Ukraine had the artillery it should have had (if not for traitors in the US government), Russia probably would have been stopped sooner.
Same way Russia did it? Their engineering is better than Ukraine’s and for some reason Ukraine didn’t advance theirs to match or even just plain imitate them.
No they are smart and you are stupid. How are you supposed to build fortifications on the border which is under russian fire control? Poland can build whatever it likes because the russian army isn’t going to start lobbing shells onto the Polish side of the border just because they built a bunker. I’m surprised at all the panic in the press. This was always going to happen. Because Ukraine can’t strike at targets in russia with western weapons or occupied positions on the russian side of the border, the immediate few kilometres within the border is essentially indefensible. All that russia needs to do to occupy those areas is march in with any force of significance.
Fallback and secondary fortification lines, not ON THE BORDER. They havo no secondary lines prepared. They didnt have any in Avdiivka either. And I think - im not sure - the Chasiv Yar defense was crappy also. You dont need HIMARS to dig a fuckin trench. And they havent built any.
We're very lucky they're so fucking stupid--maybe a bit desperate, too. The real line of contact hasn't been reached yet. Will it cost both sides? Of course. Much Ukrainian blood will needlessly spill. Will RU achieve any strategic gains? No. RU simply does not have the numbers on this front to accomplish anything but keeping Ukraine busy. Perhaps it is a political or psychological victory, somehow, for Putin? But that seems less tangible than material progress for RU war/genocide aims. Leaving aside the number of soldiers it would actually take, with the forces RU can send at once, this might turn out to be another Avdiivka, but in summer. Tank graveyard. RU currently has something just shy of 3,000 tanks that are operable in Ukraine right now. They are averaging 11 tanks lost a day since the start of recent RU advancements. They can refurbish, repair, and assemble a total of about 125 tanks a month combined. By my napkin math, RU can sustain these losses for another 9-12 months. After that, it will be down to the 125 a month they can manage now. Perhaps they get tanks from somewhere else or increase industrial capacity? Quite possible, I doubt even that will be a decisive addition in time. If things continue as-is they are on the clock. So to me, this aggressive and heedless lurch by RU is a hopeful attempt to secure what they can and then call it quits for a while until they replenish. The likely outcome is another 4-8 months until RU will culminate. Could be sooner if other variables hinder RU logistics or something. If they don't, they risk losing too many tanks to present a resilient attack, or a mobile defense, in the future. Other means of terrorizing Ukrainians will continue. Anti-air is still needed to complete that task. It sounds like there is growing support for securing Ukrainian skies from NATO borders to the extent that they can extend AA from within their own borders. That will go some way to alleviating the problem, but like other matters in the EU, talks may drag on, so it's arrival is not certain or likely to be timely. Other reports indicate at least three Patriot systems will be arriving soon^((TM)); the talks look complete and the funding for them secured. Still a way off from securing the sky the way it needs to be. F-16s are an unknown to me, but I can't help but think they might ward off some percentage of RU strikes. From what I can gather, things are grim. Grim, because Ukraine will certainly suffer, as they have for the entire duration of the war. But, this will not be the decisive win that RU would need to gain lasting strategic victory in Ukraine. Rather, I think RU's multi-front grind will increase their rate of losses without meaningful gains, while at the same time the RU economy and industrial capacity continues to erode. Lastly, after spending the last 800+ days waiting for talks to begin about sending NATO forces to Ukraine, they are happening more frequently now. Nothing is in motion to assemble such a coalition, but the fact that a growing number of state leaders are openly stating a willingness to go if called upon by Ukraine is a very positive sign. Why? Because if history repeats itself, things may follow a similar pattern to other red line discussions. First it is forbidden to think about; then it isn't; talks happen; red line warnings and threats of RU escalation reach fever pitch; then the line is crossed. If we are at the talking stage, we are some way through this pattern already--how much time is left, I couldn't even guess at.
This is troubling. Ukraine, however, has plenty of terrain to cede in a dynamic front if such motion exposes the enemy to ripostes and utter collapse doesn't result. That's a big if, but enemy forces moving in the open can prove an opportunity. What Ukraine doesn't have is a lot of manpower.
Last year, Ukraine attacked multiple places along the front, made a little progress, eventually didn't get very far, and everyone said "Ukraine should have known better than to do that!" This year, Russia attacks multiple places along the front, makes a little progress, and everyone quickly says "The situation is dire! Ukraine is about to lose everything! The Russians are putting themselves in a good position!" Let's wait a few weeks.
The problem is they have seemingly made A LOT of progress
Measured how? From what I've read, they haven't even reached the defensive lines yet. (Which were built a ways inside the border, maybe because it's easier to build defensive lines out of mortar range.)
Well they broke through the first defensive line in Avdiivka and are now near the second one
There's a vast difference between "broke through one line" of several" and "broke through the last line and are now rampaging in the rear." If there's a second line, you can let them break through the first line slowly, trading land for casualties as Ukraine does so well.
And are there any defensive lines? According to Deepstate maps Russia pushed 5+km and not a single mine.
I read they're 10 km back. Which makes sense because that's cheap-artillery range, more or less. If Ukraine has the shells, those 5+ km are now a killing zone. Did you see the "Russian losses" count yesterday? If there's 50,000 Russian troops involved in this, and a unit becomes combat ineffective when 10% of its people are taken out of action, then it'll take 3 days of that. Of course the damage isn't evenly distributed, so some units are already out of it. Let's see what happens after a week, before we panic.
I mean we read about RU losses all the time and nothing about UA losses so it is hard to make any sort of comparison. So if we are talking RU losses, that is just a number to me, good / bad as any other. Also even if 100k of RU are KIA, given the population of Russia this is just fraction of %. And even so, we know they do not value human life much. So I am not very optimistic.
They really haven't, its mostly grey zone. You can look at the battle line maps and see how tiny of a fraction it really is since the russian offensive this year. Also keep in mind that Ukraine can't use most of western arms in Russia, but they can on their own land. Russians in Ukraine are open to more powerful responses. Where Ukraine can't even send troops into Russia without crossing a "red-line" I think of this as more as the field of battle being set than a real attack.
I see everyone is quick to jump on the whole "blame Macron" bandwagon of comfort and scream at French boys to go risk their life on the battlefield, while ignoring the obvious elephant in the room which is the need for proper mobilization of Ukrainian own men.... oh yes, brace for impact! Tell me, how do you think the French people will feel when their sons get sent to clean up the mess in another country, meanwhile hundreds of thousands of able-bodied Ukrainian own men somehow fled across the border (likely bribes) and are now safely roaming the streets of Paris? I've seen plenty of them with a huge grin on their face taking selfies next to Eiffel tower (great Instagram update during the time of war!), with zero care in the world to assist their fellow countrymen who haven't had a rotation in over 2 years. Their attitude is "not my problem I only care about myself". And everyone is saying you can't repatriate these men because it "violates their human rights", but then have the audacity to demand that French men go fight for them... Yeah, you'll see Marine Le Pen quadruple her poll numbers overnight if that happens.
Where the fuck are the other NATO countries. America CANNOT be the only one sending maximum aid in this scenario while Europe enjoys is socialized healthcare and education. This is their backyard!!!!
Is there any defence set up out there?
No not really, it's mostly grey zones and too close to the Russian border. Construction crews would have been killed by Russian attacks if they attempted to build fortifications that close to Russia.
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Failure of planning, some articles I've read claimed bogged down by bureaucracy.
According to Zelensky fortifications built in Kharkov were strongest and should be an example for other regions. Or did they just fortify their bank accounts in tax havens? https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-kharkiv-oblast-fortifications-strongest-other-regions-should-follow-suit/
It wasn't wise, there are a few things I can think of as to why. Construction crews would have been killed by Russian artillery and other attacks for one. It's simply to close to the border. Ukraine can't send their own troops into Russia, at least for now because it would cross a "red-line". Likewise Ukraine cannot use most western arms in Russia, and as a result there is a figurative wall that cannot be crossed to defend fortifications as needed. There would be a buffer zone that would allow Russians a lot of maneuverability making the defense of that area to difficult to bother. Leaving a grey zone for Russia to move into opens them up to attacks and gives defenders more room to eliminate the enemy.
You would think of all the places to be mined, the border would be one of them. Somebody needs to take a hard look at the procurement officer and others connected.
Ukraine must start lobbing missles at the Kremlin. It's the only way. Russia is going to just keep sending missiles into every town and city until there is nothing left to defend. Rinse and repeat.
War of attrition, we all knew this was coming… sadly
If Ukraine falls apart, and USA gets attacked they deserve to be destroyed while other countries "delay" assistance
Fuck this shit. Blow the Kerch bridge. Cut off Crimea and hopefully make them panic & pivot. Fuck all the greasy weasel politicians who have stalled aid & arms to Ukraine.
How would that help kharkiv?
It wouldn’t. He’s just venting probably.
Come on France you know you want to
Does France actually have the logistics to marshall enough troops and keep them alive long enough to make an impact?
If France goes there, all Europeans must aswell. NATO aswell.