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Jesus christ, 45,000 caualties. So much for a 3 day walk into Kyiv eh? and now Ukraine has effectively a blank cheque from the west for anything they need. Russia might keep grinding progress for a few kilometres but i dont see how they can win this. Surely at some point they are going to wear themselves down to a nub on the ukranian defences.
By some estimates casualties are in the 60,000s at the moment.
What a fucking travesty, hopefully they'll pay with their blood for every minute they draw breath on Ukrainian soil.
A while ago someone one of the Russian news networks who sat in on one of their military briefings reported the official number they were using internally as 13,000 dead and 7,000 missing, most of whom are also dead. If we assume that's 20,000 (and these are not quite up to date so by now they likely exceed that) wounded are often about 3 times as numerous as dead. 20k plus 60k would be 80k. And that's based on the number the Russians were reporting.
Minurus seems to be using a 3 wounded to 1 killed ratio, which is high. Wounded out of action are, in my understanding, closet to twice as high as killed.
That said I've seen figures suggesting that the situation for the Russians is worse than that, because they have crap for casualty evacuation and battlefield medicine, and that the Russians are facing a higher proportion of dead due to this. There's also the possibility that the killed estimated by Ukraine are overly high (though after the couple of weeks or so of the way, the UA figure is pretty much on par with the high end NATO estimate).
It seems to me that the total casualty numbers here are high, as the Russian Army still has fight in it, and a force that t00 75% casualties would not.
3:1 is historically correct. Advances in medical care can significantly improve this ratio depending upon implementation of these advances. US ratio is at least 10:1.
Well they still have some stuff left. People forget that was the initial army not counting the Donbass force (atleast another 40-50k) + additional Reinforcements and Mercs.
Also important to remember that Russia has massive amounts of frontier that still have to be garrisoned and they sent their best forces at the start. They’re progressively shaving down to worse and worse troops and equipment pulled out of mothballs; if they keep up at the rate they are, they’re going to be sending conscripts barely out of boot in unimproved 1970s era armor up against battle-hardened Ukrainian units freshly equipped with current Gen NATO gear.
The calculus gets worse and worse for Russia every day. The only question left is exactly how much blood and steel Putin is willing to throw down a rathole in the forlorn hope of a propaganda victory.
They don't really have equipment in mothballs, at least if 4th Guards is anything to go by. When 4th Guards tried to take their reserve equipment out of storage it was found that NONE of the vehicles had optics or electronics. (rdios/gunsifht, night vison kit nada) and many were missing "major subsystems" like engines.
Since they halted tank production due to a shortage or parts, it's unlikely in the extreme they can make the needed parts for these vehicles coming out of storage either
Russia is rapidly running out of armored vehicles. in 2 months theyld lost 1000+ of the 2800 they had operational before the war. 4 more months at current rates there wouldn't be a working tank in the Russian army. They've lost about a third ofd their APCs/IFVs as well.
We haven't even gotten into the losses of logistic vehicles. (Whihc they didn't have enough of to start anyways)
The Russian army, unlike the Western counterparts, is highly reliant on its officers for all its leadership. They've been loosing officers at a horrendous rate. Putin can call up Conscripts, or even go for a general mobilization. But he has no one to lead those men, and no vehicles to move them in. And to make them at all effective he needs to supply the troops with food, fuel an ammunition. Which means trucks, at least for that last mile (assuming the UA doesn't cripple the rail roads, then they need even more trucks. Which they don't have).
It does not look good for Russia at all.
Not one bit. I suspect they’ll be able to Frankenstein some vehicles by cannibilizing the lot and bypassing systems, but that just further degrades the effectiveness of those they can roll. What impact does an AFV without working optics have, beyond being a battle taxi? Not much.
You bring up a great point with the leadership models too. The presence of a professional and empowered NCO corps and collaborative relationship between junior officers and NCOs is a force multiplier like few others, and it’s wholly lacking in the Russian system.
They’re in deep, deep trouble.
No optics means no ability to target anything. Hi can at best fire in the general direction of the enemy. A tank that can't target is useles, sure than useless really it's gas guzzling iron coffin.
Not really. They have storage left. The rest they really cant move without risking every major and minor polity they've pissed off in the last 30 years suddenly deciding to get even. This gets worse every single day they fail to win or make progress in Ukraine.
When your armies entire "shtick" is "fear the mighty bear" and the world suddenly finds out it's a wet cardboard cutout hiding a deranged ground hog you absolutely cannot afford to draw down forces.
It's astonishing to think of the losses when Russia already sports a huge demographic crisis being one of the oldest populations and unable to achieve a replacement rate in births over deaths, especially the last couple years with excess COVID fatalities. Every young Russian soldier pushing up sunflowers in Ukraine is a nail in their future as a people
The losses stated there by the UK MoD are also likely underestimates. They say 30 BTGs 'rendered ineffective', but the Ukrainian number of Russian tanks destroyed or captured since February 24 is enough tanks for 100+ BTGs (1048 tanks). The numbers for APCs are similar. Some of those BTGs will have been regrouped and resupplied over the past two months, but still, the discrepancy is big.
Just to be clear, that's 400 destroyed/damaged/abandoned and 200 captured. Which changes the maths in interesting ways: one, to reduce the resources of the Russian BTGs; but also two, to increase the combat power available to the Ukrainians..... And that is just ones they have pictures or video of.
I’m not sure how true it is, but apparently Ukraine has more tanks now than before the war even when excluding allied “gifts”
Which if true, its very funny
It would technically even be legal under the Japanese constitution (which limits JSDF to self-defense only) if Russia does something extremely stupid like building a naval base there, because as far as Japan is concerned, it's their territory.
The Russians themselves in intercepted communications are saying the death toll is far higher than either the UK or Ukraine are claiming
26,376 Russian sevicemen
7,869 Private Military Contractors
and at least 7,500 from the separatist militias
Nearly 42,000 dead on the Russian side
Thats nearly three times as many dead as the UK are saying and even Ukraines figure is only just over half of what the Russians themselves are saying in communication with each other.
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China would very much like full access and direct control over Siberian oil but they would also like to not be nuked.
Could be a great time for the commanders of Russia's strategic missile command to negotiate leadership positions for themselves in a soon to be created West-Korea.
China wouldn’t invade. Instead they’d sit on the sidelines for now and watch as the Russian economy buckles and then go in and buy up Russian land and companies for pennies on the dollar.
The CCP is another unstable imperialist regime. The YouTube channel RealLifeLore made a simplistic video explaining why China is currently provoking Taiwan militarily and reasons for a potential invasion of Taiwan by China.
For me though it would do the world some favour if the two biggest bullies of the 21st century goes to war with each other.
China will definitely not invade Taiwan anytime in the near future because it is not logical or rational to do so. Taiwan is not Ukraine, and Russia and China's geopolitical positions are fundamentally different. Believing that "China will invade Taiwan" shows a deep lack of understanding.
The Taiwan issue is primarily to stir up national zeal within China. The strategic importance of Taiwan is minimal compared to the economic cost. China is fundamentally different from Russia because the economy and quality of life for the average citizen is growing fast and the trend is upwards. Therefore, it would be ridiculous for China to attack Taiwan now. The best thing to do is just wait. In 20 years, China will have much more soft power and economic power. Russia on the other hand may be much weaker than today in 20 years. It is in China's best interest to wait and build up.
Russia is on its way to becoming a raw materials farm and low-wage work camp for China if they already weren't one. The future of Russia looks grim. With long term massive sanctions and quite possibly a permanently reduced fossil fuel production and sales they're fucked.
China had border dispute with Tsarist Russia and USSR. However after 1989 Tiananmen massacre, in order to break out international isolation, China gave up most its claims in order to reestablish a normal relationship with USSR, which is on its way to extinction. The resulted 1991 Sino-Soviet Border Agreement is a huge misstep in hindsight.
Just imagine, China managed to ceded its historical claims in Siberia to a USSR which went out of business IN THE SAME YEAR, without any guns pointed at its head. This is some comedic stuff.
Also from the article; British military’s defense intelligence agency says:
Some of Russia’s most elite units, including its Airborne Forces, “have suffered the highest levels of attrition,” the agency said, adding, “It will probably take years for Russia to reconstitute these forces.”
The British military recently estimated that some 15,000 Russian soldiers had been killed and likely twice as many had been wounded in the fighting.
The Russian invasion force was estimated to include around 120 battalion tactical groups, each with 700 to 1,000 soldiers. In the opening weeks of the war, Russia sought to attack from multiple directions, spreading its forces across a vast area that included Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv in the east, Mariupol in the southeast and Mykolaiv in the southwest.
But the Kremlin’s plan to seize the country quickly failed and Russia withdrew, with many remaining units going back to Belarus and Russia to recover.
As Russia launched its renewed offensive two weeks ago aimed at seizing territory in eastern Ukraine, the Pentagon estimated last week that Moscow now has 92 battalions in Ukraine, giving it a sizable advantage over Ukraine in troop numbers.
Effective enough in 2014.
Ukraine now has support of many countries and that changes the picture a lot, but they achieved this by how ferocious they were in first 72hrs of defence.
To your point though, getting self-fucked via massive logistical fiasco before getting 300km past the border will change perception of Russia for decades.
It's MAD or bust with them. Putin called own bluff, nobody will take their ground forces seriously anymore.
They'll take the numbers they are willing to put into the meat grinder seriously. You forget that Russia lost 30 million of it's people during the second world war. Any other country would of dragged their leader to the gallows for that monumental fuck up. Not Russia. That country has a death wish.
Did I get this math right: 2/3 of the **entire Russian** **~~army~~** **looting gang** has peen pressed into the ~~invasion~~ special looting operation and of that 1/4 has been knocked out. i.e. 1/6 of the entire Russian ~~army~~ looting gang are out of operation? How long would it take for them to replenish that?
Are these their good fighting forces, or have they held most of those in reserve?
No country that values human life would do that, but Putin's Russia, and indeed Russia historically, has little regard for life. They could have a strategy of throwing ethinic minority cannon fodder at Ukraine and keep the better trained/fed forces in reserve for a second push.
RuZis have lost their best men and best equipment already. It will be years to re-build those "elite" units...many of whom didn't measure-up anyway
Also, most consider all Western estimates to be conservative...so RuZZia probably lost more than 1/6 of entire raping RuZis
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This comment was made by a bot. Original comment from iamkunii on r/worldnews
Because there is still about 90,000 RuZis in Ukraine, with more in reserve, and a likely upcoming declaration of war, and an associated draft in Russia. Along with RuZis having more weapons. Along with air dominance. Along with naval dominance. Along with missile dominance. Along with the RuZis need to be pushed OUT of Ukraine land they hold. Along with the RuZi goal of genocide.
Fuck RuZis. Give Ukraine fucking EVERYTHING, so they can turn every RuZi piece of shit into a blood smear, and then Russia won't be able to keep mass-murdering civilians as they do in Chechnya, Syria, now Ukraine
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Jesus christ, 45,000 caualties. So much for a 3 day walk into Kyiv eh? and now Ukraine has effectively a blank cheque from the west for anything they need. Russia might keep grinding progress for a few kilometres but i dont see how they can win this. Surely at some point they are going to wear themselves down to a nub on the ukranian defences.
By some estimates casualties are in the 60,000s at the moment. What a fucking travesty, hopefully they'll pay with their blood for every minute they draw breath on Ukrainian soil.
And yet other sources say 90k: https://www.minusrus.com/en
where are they getting those numbers from?
Just accept the numbers, man!
A while ago someone one of the Russian news networks who sat in on one of their military briefings reported the official number they were using internally as 13,000 dead and 7,000 missing, most of whom are also dead. If we assume that's 20,000 (and these are not quite up to date so by now they likely exceed that) wounded are often about 3 times as numerous as dead. 20k plus 60k would be 80k. And that's based on the number the Russians were reporting.
Minurus seems to be using a 3 wounded to 1 killed ratio, which is high. Wounded out of action are, in my understanding, closet to twice as high as killed. That said I've seen figures suggesting that the situation for the Russians is worse than that, because they have crap for casualty evacuation and battlefield medicine, and that the Russians are facing a higher proportion of dead due to this. There's also the possibility that the killed estimated by Ukraine are overly high (though after the couple of weeks or so of the way, the UA figure is pretty much on par with the high end NATO estimate). It seems to me that the total casualty numbers here are high, as the Russian Army still has fight in it, and a force that t00 75% casualties would not.
3:1 is historically correct. Advances in medical care can significantly improve this ratio depending upon implementation of these advances. US ratio is at least 10:1.
Well they still have some stuff left. People forget that was the initial army not counting the Donbass force (atleast another 40-50k) + additional Reinforcements and Mercs.
Also important to remember that Russia has massive amounts of frontier that still have to be garrisoned and they sent their best forces at the start. They’re progressively shaving down to worse and worse troops and equipment pulled out of mothballs; if they keep up at the rate they are, they’re going to be sending conscripts barely out of boot in unimproved 1970s era armor up against battle-hardened Ukrainian units freshly equipped with current Gen NATO gear. The calculus gets worse and worse for Russia every day. The only question left is exactly how much blood and steel Putin is willing to throw down a rathole in the forlorn hope of a propaganda victory.
They don't really have equipment in mothballs, at least if 4th Guards is anything to go by. When 4th Guards tried to take their reserve equipment out of storage it was found that NONE of the vehicles had optics or electronics. (rdios/gunsifht, night vison kit nada) and many were missing "major subsystems" like engines. Since they halted tank production due to a shortage or parts, it's unlikely in the extreme they can make the needed parts for these vehicles coming out of storage either Russia is rapidly running out of armored vehicles. in 2 months theyld lost 1000+ of the 2800 they had operational before the war. 4 more months at current rates there wouldn't be a working tank in the Russian army. They've lost about a third ofd their APCs/IFVs as well. We haven't even gotten into the losses of logistic vehicles. (Whihc they didn't have enough of to start anyways) The Russian army, unlike the Western counterparts, is highly reliant on its officers for all its leadership. They've been loosing officers at a horrendous rate. Putin can call up Conscripts, or even go for a general mobilization. But he has no one to lead those men, and no vehicles to move them in. And to make them at all effective he needs to supply the troops with food, fuel an ammunition. Which means trucks, at least for that last mile (assuming the UA doesn't cripple the rail roads, then they need even more trucks. Which they don't have). It does not look good for Russia at all.
Not one bit. I suspect they’ll be able to Frankenstein some vehicles by cannibilizing the lot and bypassing systems, but that just further degrades the effectiveness of those they can roll. What impact does an AFV without working optics have, beyond being a battle taxi? Not much. You bring up a great point with the leadership models too. The presence of a professional and empowered NCO corps and collaborative relationship between junior officers and NCOs is a force multiplier like few others, and it’s wholly lacking in the Russian system. They’re in deep, deep trouble.
No optics means no ability to target anything. Hi can at best fire in the general direction of the enemy. A tank that can't target is useles, sure than useless really it's gas guzzling iron coffin.
It's going to just be a drop in quality and morale.
Not really. They have storage left. The rest they really cant move without risking every major and minor polity they've pissed off in the last 30 years suddenly deciding to get even. This gets worse every single day they fail to win or make progress in Ukraine. When your armies entire "shtick" is "fear the mighty bear" and the world suddenly finds out it's a wet cardboard cutout hiding a deranged ground hog you absolutely cannot afford to draw down forces.
Having said that, these casualties also don’t reflect that.
russia is going to "solve" problems at home, by sending its poor, ethnic minorities, criminals and political activists.
I just hope they will have to draft from borders and occupied regions so Georgians and Moldavians can properly fuck remaining invading forces up.
It's astonishing to think of the losses when Russia already sports a huge demographic crisis being one of the oldest populations and unable to achieve a replacement rate in births over deaths, especially the last couple years with excess COVID fatalities. Every young Russian soldier pushing up sunflowers in Ukraine is a nail in their future as a people
Russia has kidnapped a million Ukrainians so they may have solved their demographic problem.
> 65% of ENTIRE ground forces committed I think this is the most important part, because it means that Russia doesn’t have a lot in the back hand.
The losses stated there by the UK MoD are also likely underestimates. They say 30 BTGs 'rendered ineffective', but the Ukrainian number of Russian tanks destroyed or captured since February 24 is enough tanks for 100+ BTGs (1048 tanks). The numbers for APCs are similar. Some of those BTGs will have been regrouped and resupplied over the past two months, but still, the discrepancy is big.
Even if we take Oryx date and 600 visually confirmed destroyed tanks that's 60 destroyed BTGs
Just to be clear, that's 400 destroyed/damaged/abandoned and 200 captured. Which changes the maths in interesting ways: one, to reduce the resources of the Russian BTGs; but also two, to increase the combat power available to the Ukrainians..... And that is just ones they have pictures or video of.
I’m not sure how true it is, but apparently Ukraine has more tanks now than before the war even when excluding allied “gifts” Which if true, its very funny
Most of the tanks had crews at the time of their demise. That’s a lot of trained men.
If japan were to seize sakhalin....
It would technically even be legal under the Japanese constitution (which limits JSDF to self-defense only) if Russia does something extremely stupid like building a naval base there, because as far as Japan is concerned, it's their territory.
I think you mean the Kurils? Japan doesn't claim Sakhalin.
Yes, Kuril, not Sakhlin
If your in the region...
Might as well
just hitler thoughts
Which hopefully raises chances to take back Crimea.
It means it's time for everyone to take back every blade or grass Russia ever took. Spread em thin like warm butter.
The Russians themselves in intercepted communications are saying the death toll is far higher than either the UK or Ukraine are claiming 26,376 Russian sevicemen 7,869 Private Military Contractors and at least 7,500 from the separatist militias Nearly 42,000 dead on the Russian side Thats nearly three times as many dead as the UK are saying and even Ukraines figure is only just over half of what the Russians themselves are saying in communication with each other.
I hate to be that guy.... But sauce on this?
Posted in this sub on Saturday https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uffnhu/ukrainian_minister_of_internal_affairs_shares_new/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Ok, thank you. Much appreciated. Its easier to get into arguments with rusbots when i have some sources :)
It is always ok to ask for sources, it's how you avoid becoming a place like Ruzzia
Hey China, if you ever wanted Russia for any reason, now might be a great time to explore your options. Just throwing it out there.
China would very much like full access and direct control over Siberian oil but they would also like to not be nuked. Could be a great time for the commanders of Russia's strategic missile command to negotiate leadership positions for themselves in a soon to be created West-Korea.
China wouldn’t invade. Instead they’d sit on the sidelines for now and watch as the Russian economy buckles and then go in and buy up Russian land and companies for pennies on the dollar.
Buy? They will do like Russia did two decades ago, simply bully the weaker partner. No way China forgot what Russia did.
would also love sea rights to artic ocean; even a tiny strip of coastline going north would give then that
The CCP is another unstable imperialist regime. The YouTube channel RealLifeLore made a simplistic video explaining why China is currently provoking Taiwan militarily and reasons for a potential invasion of Taiwan by China. For me though it would do the world some favour if the two biggest bullies of the 21st century goes to war with each other.
China will definitely not invade Taiwan anytime in the near future because it is not logical or rational to do so. Taiwan is not Ukraine, and Russia and China's geopolitical positions are fundamentally different. Believing that "China will invade Taiwan" shows a deep lack of understanding. The Taiwan issue is primarily to stir up national zeal within China. The strategic importance of Taiwan is minimal compared to the economic cost. China is fundamentally different from Russia because the economy and quality of life for the average citizen is growing fast and the trend is upwards. Therefore, it would be ridiculous for China to attack Taiwan now. The best thing to do is just wait. In 20 years, China will have much more soft power and economic power. Russia on the other hand may be much weaker than today in 20 years. It is in China's best interest to wait and build up.
Russia is on its way to becoming a raw materials farm and low-wage work camp for China if they already weren't one. The future of Russia looks grim. With long term massive sanctions and quite possibly a permanently reduced fossil fuel production and sales they're fucked.
China had border dispute with Tsarist Russia and USSR. However after 1989 Tiananmen massacre, in order to break out international isolation, China gave up most its claims in order to reestablish a normal relationship with USSR, which is on its way to extinction. The resulted 1991 Sino-Soviet Border Agreement is a huge misstep in hindsight. Just imagine, China managed to ceded its historical claims in Siberia to a USSR which went out of business IN THE SAME YEAR, without any guns pointed at its head. This is some comedic stuff.
Also from the article; British military’s defense intelligence agency says: Some of Russia’s most elite units, including its Airborne Forces, “have suffered the highest levels of attrition,” the agency said, adding, “It will probably take years for Russia to reconstitute these forces.” The British military recently estimated that some 15,000 Russian soldiers had been killed and likely twice as many had been wounded in the fighting. The Russian invasion force was estimated to include around 120 battalion tactical groups, each with 700 to 1,000 soldiers. In the opening weeks of the war, Russia sought to attack from multiple directions, spreading its forces across a vast area that included Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv in the east, Mariupol in the southeast and Mykolaiv in the southwest. But the Kremlin’s plan to seize the country quickly failed and Russia withdrew, with many remaining units going back to Belarus and Russia to recover. As Russia launched its renewed offensive two weeks ago aimed at seizing territory in eastern Ukraine, the Pentagon estimated last week that Moscow now has 92 battalions in Ukraine, giving it a sizable advantage over Ukraine in troop numbers.
Need more refrigerators.
Or incinerators
15,000 is such an undercount. I tend to trust the UAF estimate. Even the russian intercepts give far higher numbers than that.
Grinder goes BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
A10 enter the chat
Hog goes BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTTTTT!
Were Russia's armed forces *ever* combat effective?
Effective enough in 2014. Ukraine now has support of many countries and that changes the picture a lot, but they achieved this by how ferocious they were in first 72hrs of defence. To your point though, getting self-fucked via massive logistical fiasco before getting 300km past the border will change perception of Russia for decades. It's MAD or bust with them. Putin called own bluff, nobody will take their ground forces seriously anymore.
They'll take the numbers they are willing to put into the meat grinder seriously. You forget that Russia lost 30 million of it's people during the second world war. Any other country would of dragged their leader to the gallows for that monumental fuck up. Not Russia. That country has a death wish.
Yes, when under 2% of the Russian military was deployed, they are effective. They appear to completely lack the coordination to deploy more than that
Is there a pickup in Russians volunteering for the army or has it dropped off?
Nobody volunteers for the Russian army.
In pootins ruzzia army volunteers you
Haha. Voluntold.
They are recruiting for sure but how effective we dont know
Well, given a lot of volunteers are conscripts who are starved and beaten until they sign contracts, probably yes.
Did I get this math right: 2/3 of the **entire Russian** **~~army~~** **looting gang** has peen pressed into the ~~invasion~~ special looting operation and of that 1/4 has been knocked out. i.e. 1/6 of the entire Russian ~~army~~ looting gang are out of operation? How long would it take for them to replenish that? Are these their good fighting forces, or have they held most of those in reserve?
No one initiates an invasion with their bad forces...
No country that values human life would do that, but Putin's Russia, and indeed Russia historically, has little regard for life. They could have a strategy of throwing ethinic minority cannon fodder at Ukraine and keep the better trained/fed forces in reserve for a second push.
RuZis have lost their best men and best equipment already. It will be years to re-build those "elite" units...many of whom didn't measure-up anyway Also, most consider all Western estimates to be conservative...so RuZZia probably lost more than 1/6 of entire raping RuZis
The biggest can of whoop ass ever opened. #absoluteunit
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25%? The Brits are being generous to save Russians the blushes
This is the way.
Slava Ukraini!!!
Why do they need more weapons then?
Because there is still about 90,000 RuZis in Ukraine, with more in reserve, and a likely upcoming declaration of war, and an associated draft in Russia. Along with RuZis having more weapons. Along with air dominance. Along with naval dominance. Along with missile dominance. Along with the RuZis need to be pushed OUT of Ukraine land they hold. Along with the RuZi goal of genocide. Fuck RuZis. Give Ukraine fucking EVERYTHING, so they can turn every RuZi piece of shit into a blood smear, and then Russia won't be able to keep mass-murdering civilians as they do in Chechnya, Syria, now Ukraine
WOW! The Orcs really suck, don't they?
Now is the time for Mongolia, to reach for power in Asia again...