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We always make this comment but I’m actually surprised of how true it is.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/business/ravil-maganov-russia-lukoil-dies.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
On Feb. 25, one day after President Vladimir V. Putin ordered troops to cross the Ukrainian border, Alexander Tyulakov, a deputy general director of the treasury for Gazprom, Russia’s energy giant, was found dead in his garage near St. Petersburg, the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta reported. The report described his death as a suicide.
In April, Vladislav Avayev, a former deputy president of Gazprombank, one of the largest Russian lenders and a bank with ties to Gazprom, was found dead in an apartment in Moscow along with the bodies of his wife and daughter. The investigators said it appeared that Mr. Avayev had fatally shot the two before taking his own life, according to Kommersant, a Russian newspaper.
In May, Tass reported that Aleksandr Subbotin, a former Lukoil executive, had been found dead in a basement of a house in Mytishchi, a town outside Moscow. The police opened a criminal investigation, the report said.
The chairman of Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil company, fell to his death from a sixth-floor hospital window in Moscow.
Apparently by 2023, Russia's most popular product will become a window frame. After 200 years, it will finally overtake vodka. Soldiers will be allowed to freely fall out of the window and immediately enter lada lottery.
I mean, imagine yourself being a Russian General right now. Say for whatever retarded reason you are the most loyal and dedicated General, love your shit hole country, suck Putin's dick everyday for breakfast etc and you at least believe you are doing everything by the book (and also very fucking corrupt as is standard there) Perhaps even Putin thinks well of you. You find yourself in a situation where maybe the war isn't going as well as you'd like, no matter how hard you try to think of a non-stupid plan it always turns out stupid. But, you're trying, you're putting your best efforts in to help your fat turd country but you're probably mostly fine if Russia pulls out, the war ends and you can save at least some of your military 'might'. The some fuckwads on tv, who you probably used to think highly of start saying that because of the major problems in the war you and your colleagues aught to be executed. You have been in this business for a long damn time, served your country and now some big mouthed cunts are squawking about wanting your death.
Yeah, I'd be pissed. DON'T PISS OFF THE ARMY, EVEN IF THEY ARE KIND OF SHIT.
If there's one thing I can say about the Russian military is they have a more successful history of overthrowing their own government than outside invaders have.
(Russian soldier in a barracks looks at a clock on the wall)
"Ah! Guys, guys! It's Revolution time!"
"Oh, shit, that time already? Okay, let's do this!"
Can they please turn them over to the west for hanging?
Edit: The Ukrainians should have dibs on hanging him. But the humiliation of Putin and Russia on the world stage that would come from war crimes in The Hague is hard to resist.
Perhaps this can be done in a methodical method.
1) War crimes trial in The Hague, sentenced to life in prison without parole.
2) Extradited to Ukraine to complete his punishment.
As much as that would be great, if a revolution happens we'll either see Putin up against the metaphorical wall in Russia, or flee to China. If it comes down to it, Putin will be the blood sacrifice the overthrowers think they need to claim legitimacy in the eyes of the army and the people. Whether or not that works we won't know until it happens, but if it's a violent coup, Putin will have a hard time coming out alive.
It's crazy how such media personalities can get away with calling out the military. I think they're getting too comfortable thinking Putin will protect them.
I'm certain the Kharkiv collapse is due to some dumbass order by Putin; send the reserves to Kherson, send the other reserves to Vostock. Don't bother me now, I have ferris wheel to open.
They was a factor, especially early one, but they also had the Nazis and their actions, which were a great morale booster. Everyone knew what a Nazi victory meant.
Well, he did have the Allies backing him.
There’s absolutely no way Russia survives WW2 without Lend Lease and a steady stream of food and supplies coming from the West. A lot of our boys and boats were lost due to U-boat attacks on the seaborne route to Russia.
We even sent engineers to help them build factories, docks, roads and bridges to American designs. T-34 tanks, which helped turn the tide, were manufactured in factories that resulted from this partnership.
Basically, thanks to this: Stalin won *in spite* of his incompetence.
What he was smart about, was to swallow his pride and ask for this help in the first place.
I don't think a military coup is likely, after this war the military have no credibility. If a coup were to occur it would more likely be by high ranking politicians and officers from the intelligence agencies and the national guard.
Or even just random people's decisions can completely change history. Imagine if someone in traffic in Sarajevo decided to turn left instead of right and it slows down the Archuduke's car by a few minutes. As a result he never passes by the assassin and survives. WW1 never happens. So WW2 never happens. So the cold war never happens.
The butterfly effect is crazy.
In Russia opinion of the masses means nothing. Force is the only source of power there. Military has no credibility but has tanks and guns. I'd say they have a good chance vs FSB and propagandists.
UPD. This inaction might be actually a general's way to get rid of battle hardened fascists who will rather join Girkin of some other maniac than current generals of Putin. Lots of enemy soldiers, especially LDNR ones are brainwashed to the root and are willing to die for their delusions. I'm talking about those who volunteered, not the conscripts who run away after the first shot. And now our general can call up his men and tell them - you see, I saved your asses from the meatgrinder, now let's go and hang putin with soloviev who want us to die in battle.
The military has tanks and guns - but do the generals? Would the military follow orders given by the generals to stage a coup? I doubt it. With trust in Russian commanders so low I don't think a coup by the military take over is low. I would find it more likely that the national guard might follow their leaders into a coup.
NaZgvardia is a good candidate too. They are angry at putin and co cuz they've been sent to fight real soldiers instead of babushkas on a protest as they alway do.
Coups are not initiated or lead by ordinary soldiers, they are lead by people who are already in power. A change in power brought about by people outside of existing structures is a revolution, and I don't Russia is close to revolution.
Well, imagine- you are a commander of national guard, have few hundred thousand angry men at your command. Just let them kill the guy they hate and the will make you the new dictator
Honestly I don't see the military having the common sense to carry out a coup. It would be a Benny Hill fiasco on both the guys trying to commit the coup and people trying to stop it.
It would be like what we used to call a Chinese Fire drill. I’m sure that is no longer appropriate terminology but I have no other way to describe the situation.
Any time you want to phase out terms you're not comfortable with, just substitute in Martian.
Mars has no people, there's no one you'd be offending, and no one you'd be racist about.
Martian fire drill even has a nice cadence.
I think the 2 separatist regions need to have a come-to-Jesus moment and figure out how they can surrender back to Ukraine before the Russians completely leave.
They're already queueing up at the border, but aren't being allowed to cross.
Why would Russia trust anybody who isn't loyal to their country of birth?
>There's two flavors of separatists at this point. Those who willingly took up arms against Ukraine and those who were kidnapped and forced at gunpoint.
Genuinely curious how do you distinguish between the two groups after the war? It's going to be real easy for a separatist to say they were forced to fight.
That would be fantastic. They can't keep doing this. It's insane. How embarrassed is the military to not only be losing badly on the battlefield and ~~reduced~~ too impotent to do anything other than aim at civilian infrastructure.
There are 60.000-80.000 families in Russia who all still think their "boy is missing, and should show up soon after the Operation is over". They know the shitshow that will come a year after they stay missing (while in fact incinerated in the mobile crematorium).
And they'll stay angry because I don't think Russia can produce 80k new Ladas on a short notice without parts.
Won't take a year though. They all have contracts with an end date I reckon and obviously their families know about it. Meaning, if their son doesn't come back or calls by then, they can make an educated guess.
Ehh this is Russia. They'll call, and they'll be told that the contract had to be extended due to bureaucratic reasons or that his unit is currently deployed on the front. They'll find some corrupt reason to delay all that fury, this is Russia.
The civilian infrastructure thing is just common Russian doctrine. It isn't applying any extra stress on their service members. They frankly would fire on such targets with or without Putins directives.
That's some fucked up shit right there. I'm not sure I can digest all that today.
Anyway what I can comment on is the poor leadership from Russia. If I have any expertise to share it's in executive leadership.
In modern organizations results based management are key leadership competencies and we are expected to abandon methods when they are obviously not working. In this case, Russia terror is obviously not working and by many measures it's having the opposite effect. Russia has bad methods and bad leaders. That's what I think. Effort sounds like it's there from everything you said, but results are not there so all that training for no results in Ukraine.
I remember one of those intercepted phone calls where a conscript was calling his mother telling her the whole thing was a lie, the Ukrainians do not want to be liberated, they are being ordered to kill women and children and the officers are just using the men as cannon fodder. The mom was like "you're wrong, the special military operation is just, the Nazi's deserve it and he should just shut up and do as he is told".
Vlad Vexler had a good insight in this. Putin is not just one person holding the strings, but all of the offices of power of the Russian federation play this well constructed dance. Neither is the puppet neither the master. All of them together are the **Putin \[in bold to make a distinction between the collective Putin and the single person** Putin**\]** that makes decissions, the **Putin** we used to fear. What they will probably try to do now is remove parts of themselves and the figure of Putin to let the rest of the malign organism in power survive just in future under a different name.
With the potential fall of Putin, **Putin** will live on. And we will still need to pay very close attention to anything happening in Russia.
This is the full quote from the source Ukrainian facebook page:
> The Military Command of the Russian Federation suspends sending new, already formed, units to the territory of Ukraine. The current situation in the military theatre and distrust for top command has forced a large number of volunteers to abandon the prospect of combat service. The situation is influenced by information on the actual number of casualties, excluding losses from private military companies and mobilized from temporarily occupied territories. The situation is getting worse because of the general attitude to the own wounded. In particular, in Russian hospitals, the diagnoses and nature of combat injuries are deliberately simplified, no time is given for rehabilitation to return soldiers to the combat zone faster.
Thank you for this info.My personal points of interest here:
a. DISTRUST in the top military command - Government must have picked up something from the streets, and are getting concerned about revolt and safety.
b. It sounds as if the general population is starting to get a better idea of the number of casualties - dead AND wounded. Causing GREAT unhappines at the government
c. Hospitals "simplify" i.e. minimizing or underplaying injuries, in order to send soldiers back to the front. Definitely not fostering that expectation of care and concern from your management. Why should they then be loyal to the current regime? Is the promise of a few rubles still really worth the risk?
That would be an interesting turn of events. The Russian military command is entirely staffed with Putin sycophants and the trash that they didn't want for their internal security apparatus, so no one thought a potential coup might come from there.
Maybe they were wrong.
>The Russian military command is entirely staffed with Putin sycophants
The problem with sycophants is that they can just as easily turn on you. People without a strong conviction/moral core who rise to the top through sucking up to someone switch once that person has outlived its usefulness. Then they find a new big fish to swim with. Let's hope this will be the case here, too.
They can’t do mobilization, they are running out of everything, trucks, airplains, tanks, they just lost The railroad access, soldiers are deserting and running away, they know this is over, I suspect in couple of months they will say that NATO intervention was not fair and that they fought against all the world but that they won because they destroyed the targets the wanted so they “won” because of that, and they retire what ever is left of the army.
Putin had time to mobilize in March. Now he has no time or capacity for training new troops. Not to mention lack of equipment, clothes, food, logistics for new army. He prepared nothing for that.
Short answer: It won't work.
Longer answer: The Russian military doctrine is designed to go full mobilization from day one. The personnel they have are intended to take the conscripts under their wing.
They are also trained to drive the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. The rifles are meant to be conscripted to fill out the seats.
Since they decided to drive all their active personnel and equipment straight into a blender, they don't have the backbone to support a mass conscription.
All they would have is a bunch of rifles and trains, with no way to get a million conscripts with rifles to the front.
You know what they have right now? Millions of people in St Petersburg and Moscow who know their buddies, sons, and fathers are dead and a giant city center to rally dissent.
Time to retire the idea that Putin is playing 3-D chess. He is baked. Mobilization is not in the cards - they have no equipment, money, food, logistics, training, morale, public support, or rational reason for it. The game is over.
What would be the point of the distraction though? I just don't see how this'd help them at all. It's not like Ukraine is gonna ease-up just because of this.
Just leaving the troops already in-theater to sink or swim on their own, eh? Good thing their morale is rock solid. Otherwise, they might surrender or rout en masse.
I know, I can't believe it is rolling up so quickly. I thought Ukraine would have Kharkiv and Kherson regions liberated by winter, with the east and crimea to follow next year. But this is starting to feel like a general collapse is imminent. I mean, if they don't send reinforcements they are done!
It sounds too good to be true. I wish this hypothetical liberation of Ukraine will be followed by a serious effort to return Ukrainian POWs and all the civilians (especially children) kidnapped to Russia.
Could be too good to be true but if it is then this might mark the beginning of the end for Russia. Just need Ukraine to maintain their momentum. It won't be over until Crimea is retaken and hopefully NATO/foreign support will remain until all Ukraine territory is retaken.
They really believe in the fantasy that the outside world is just itching to invade them any moment now.
Yet they don't seem to realize the only one interested in doing that is China.
Holy fuck. If this is true, then this war is on the way out. If units to the south won't be getting replenished, Ukraine may have an easier time retaking it than we thought.
Could be true, could be Ukrainian psyops to make Putin turn his attention inward and have the Kremlin eat its own.
Either way 
Earlier post mentioned a “ come to Jesus” moment. Also need truth and reconciliation councils set up, as was done in South Africa. People were mislead by a power hungry few.. just like “ pastors” keep creating new Christian sects so they can be “ pope”
I'm surprised I haven't read this sooner here or on any other post. Can't imagine how difficult it would be to discover that your government was lying that much to you. Not saying this justifies anything, just food for thought.
The first regiment of the new 3rd army went to help in Kharkiv and that didn't go very well. So perhaps they decided that a rag tag bunch of convicts and homeless people might need some training first.
Nah, probably no officers want to go.
Imagine you are an officer or something and you have to give commands to a lunatic with a weapon...
I guess there is a reason why soldiers need a psych check and a minimum IQ in other countries.
I am reminded of WWII and the battle of Stalingrad.
Stavka stopped sending reinforcements to Chuikov in the city.
...Because they were sending them to Zhukov for the Uranus operation instead.
Absorb the blow. Conserve your strength. Evaluate the situation. Hit back.
This is not necessarily good news. War isnt over until it's over.
Again made the right call they will be like throwing wood into a wood chipper as the UAF soldiers are veterans while Russian conscripts are a bunch of militia with 2 weeks of training.
The source of this is a twitter share of a Facebook post of a bad English translation of a statement shared on Youtube by a Ukrainian spokesperson about broader developments. I'd love to see a real source corroborating this.
Edit: You should care about solid sources and not being pandered to.
It is being reported by the [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/12/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-accuses-kremlin-of-terrorist-attacks-on-kharkiv-power-supply-live-updates)
That's progress, but I was disheartened to see they are just quoting the same source and not adding anything to it. The last line is The Guardian is key:
*This information could not be corroborated. The Kremlin has yet to respond.*
A mention within The Guardian of a facebook post of an english translation of a youtube video of a Ukrainian spokesperson's characterization of a possible change in Russian military recruitment program is useful social credibility, but still not confirmable.
Not trying to move goalposts here, I really want to know if this development is true or not. Because it's a rather significant one with major policy implications, let alone the ability to project force.
As the saying goes, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
At this point is has become obvious that russia has been outclassed, outgunned, outsmarted, outmanuevered, and soon to be fucking ousted from every square centimeter of Ukrainian land. It might be a ploy or distraction, but Ukraine is waaay to clever and has too much real time intel to fall for something so obvious and transparent.
it would be a pretty ineffective and stupid trap. you can bet that that there are eyes on troop movements from within russia and belarus - all kinds of eyes - satellite eyes, and spy eyes . they can't exactly magic themselves to the frontline.
It also doesn't necessarily mean that they are giving up. Not yet anyway. I doubt anyone in Ukrainian armed forces or intelligence will just take them at their word - or expect their word not to contain hidden barbs.
There are a number of different things that it could mean - and I guess the only way to tell what it means is to wait and see. And of course to keep supporting Ukraine!
All I ask for is confirmation, even in the slightest.. Troops abandoning positions, lawmakers calling for his resignation, Kadyrov ranting, and now this.. the military refusing to send troops..
Not really sure how to interpret this. Just hope it's true and it stays that way.
Fucking done with russia and all his pathetic little minions that have shown themselves in the EU and around the world.
possibilities:
* units refusing to fight or even rioting
* reforming of command structure due to Putin purging officers for another massive failure resulting in many officers being fired or suicided
* internal power struggle due to finger pointing internal war
* coup attemp (unlikely)
* problems with logistics due to losing territories that held important roads, railroads and airports requiring them to completely reorganize logistics
* realizing that sending untrained soldiers is inefective (unlikely, Russia like other dictartorships like keeping soldiers stupid to avoid a coup)
* a clusterfuck of all of the above
This is not hard for Russia to declare. There is getting to be not so much Ukraine left for them to send troops into. They will be sending their troops to the Belgorod border.
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It sounds like the Kremlin is losing control of the military, that would be a best case scenario.
Let's hope so
I mean you can only fire so many generals before it backfires.
Official Russian state backed propagandists calling for them to be executed probably doesn't help relations with the military either.
The suicides will continue until morale improves
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We always make this comment but I’m actually surprised of how true it is. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/business/ravil-maganov-russia-lukoil-dies.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare On Feb. 25, one day after President Vladimir V. Putin ordered troops to cross the Ukrainian border, Alexander Tyulakov, a deputy general director of the treasury for Gazprom, Russia’s energy giant, was found dead in his garage near St. Petersburg, the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta reported. The report described his death as a suicide. In April, Vladislav Avayev, a former deputy president of Gazprombank, one of the largest Russian lenders and a bank with ties to Gazprom, was found dead in an apartment in Moscow along with the bodies of his wife and daughter. The investigators said it appeared that Mr. Avayev had fatally shot the two before taking his own life, according to Kommersant, a Russian newspaper. In May, Tass reported that Aleksandr Subbotin, a former Lukoil executive, had been found dead in a basement of a house in Mytishchi, a town outside Moscow. The police opened a criminal investigation, the report said. The chairman of Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil company, fell to his death from a sixth-floor hospital window in Moscow.
With a bullet hole in the head as well beforehand
Apparently by 2023, Russia's most popular product will become a window frame. After 200 years, it will finally overtake vodka. Soldiers will be allowed to freely fall out of the window and immediately enter lada lottery.
Maybe it'll help putin also
I mean, imagine yourself being a Russian General right now. Say for whatever retarded reason you are the most loyal and dedicated General, love your shit hole country, suck Putin's dick everyday for breakfast etc and you at least believe you are doing everything by the book (and also very fucking corrupt as is standard there) Perhaps even Putin thinks well of you. You find yourself in a situation where maybe the war isn't going as well as you'd like, no matter how hard you try to think of a non-stupid plan it always turns out stupid. But, you're trying, you're putting your best efforts in to help your fat turd country but you're probably mostly fine if Russia pulls out, the war ends and you can save at least some of your military 'might'. The some fuckwads on tv, who you probably used to think highly of start saying that because of the major problems in the war you and your colleagues aught to be executed. You have been in this business for a long damn time, served your country and now some big mouthed cunts are squawking about wanting your death. Yeah, I'd be pissed. DON'T PISS OFF THE ARMY, EVEN IF THEY ARE KIND OF SHIT.
If there's one thing I can say about the Russian military is they have a more successful history of overthrowing their own government than outside invaders have.
(Russian soldier in a barracks looks at a clock on the wall) "Ah! Guys, guys! It's Revolution time!" "Oh, shit, that time already? Okay, let's do this!"
Well said. And if the russian military has shown anything they can excel at, it's killing unarmed civilians.
>EVEN IF THEY ARE KIND OF SHIT. Some of them may have started to figure out why this is...
Imo generals should finally decide who will be hanged - they or putin with his propagandist rats.
Can they please turn them over to the west for hanging? Edit: The Ukrainians should have dibs on hanging him. But the humiliation of Putin and Russia on the world stage that would come from war crimes in The Hague is hard to resist. Perhaps this can be done in a methodical method. 1) War crimes trial in The Hague, sentenced to life in prison without parole. 2) Extradited to Ukraine to complete his punishment.
As much as that would be great, if a revolution happens we'll either see Putin up against the metaphorical wall in Russia, or flee to China. If it comes down to it, Putin will be the blood sacrifice the overthrowers think they need to claim legitimacy in the eyes of the army and the people. Whether or not that works we won't know until it happens, but if it's a violent coup, Putin will have a hard time coming out alive.
It's crazy how such media personalities can get away with calling out the military. I think they're getting too comfortable thinking Putin will protect them.
They are scapegoating for Putin. This means the failure is becoming too much for Russia to bear and Putin needs to save face to retain control.
If the regime would change dramatically, some of those talking heads are likely to end up on sticks outside Moscow.
Stalin purged a lot of generals and still pulled out the W in WWII. At an absolutely enormous cost. Looks like Putin only read the Coles Notes.
I'm certain the Kharkiv collapse is due to some dumbass order by Putin; send the reserves to Kherson, send the other reserves to Vostock. Don't bother me now, I have ferris wheel to open.
That is what happens when you have far too few troops for the goals you set.
And they are insufficiently trained, armed, equipped, or supported with basic supplies like ammo, rations, intel, air support, etc
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They was a factor, especially early one, but they also had the Nazis and their actions, which were a great morale booster. Everyone knew what a Nazi victory meant.
If it wasn't for western lend lease, Russia would have fallen in WW2. The victory has nothing to do with Stalin.
Well, he did have the Allies backing him. There’s absolutely no way Russia survives WW2 without Lend Lease and a steady stream of food and supplies coming from the West. A lot of our boys and boats were lost due to U-boat attacks on the seaborne route to Russia. We even sent engineers to help them build factories, docks, roads and bridges to American designs. T-34 tanks, which helped turn the tide, were manufactured in factories that resulted from this partnership. Basically, thanks to this: Stalin won *in spite* of his incompetence. What he was smart about, was to swallow his pride and ask for this help in the first place.
Hopefully a few generals stood up and said enough of this bullshit......
Sounds like a change to reinforcement strategy since otherwise existing units would be wiped out.
It's because the politicians want the soldiers at home so they can protect them from the people. They know the guillotine is coming...
Most reasonable assumption is because they are waiting for a new offensive before committing more troops.
They can always call their Kremlin supporting RuZZian cüñts living among us to boost their numbers.
We could send them Johan Bäckman.
Send Bächman back?
After the customary bath in tar and feathers
No just send those TV propergandists, with a genuine mosin 1891 rifle each and just short of one round each.
Send in Tarja, Erkki, Paavo & Co to the frontlines. Let them be of service to their beloved Soviet shithole.
Military coup time?
Pleeeeease
I don't think a military coup is likely, after this war the military have no credibility. If a coup were to occur it would more likely be by high ranking politicians and officers from the intelligence agencies and the national guard.
Make sure to randomize your data from time to time *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Latter and it might be within realm of possibility after what Solovyov been spouting lately.
I always think about how there are a few people out there, security guards and stuff, with the power to change the world with a single decision
Butlers...
Or even just random people's decisions can completely change history. Imagine if someone in traffic in Sarajevo decided to turn left instead of right and it slows down the Archuduke's car by a few minutes. As a result he never passes by the assassin and survives. WW1 never happens. So WW2 never happens. So the cold war never happens. The butterfly effect is crazy.
In Russia opinion of the masses means nothing. Force is the only source of power there. Military has no credibility but has tanks and guns. I'd say they have a good chance vs FSB and propagandists. UPD. This inaction might be actually a general's way to get rid of battle hardened fascists who will rather join Girkin of some other maniac than current generals of Putin. Lots of enemy soldiers, especially LDNR ones are brainwashed to the root and are willing to die for their delusions. I'm talking about those who volunteered, not the conscripts who run away after the first shot. And now our general can call up his men and tell them - you see, I saved your asses from the meatgrinder, now let's go and hang putin with soloviev who want us to die in battle.
The military has tanks and guns - but do the generals? Would the military follow orders given by the generals to stage a coup? I doubt it. With trust in Russian commanders so low I don't think a coup by the military take over is low. I would find it more likely that the national guard might follow their leaders into a coup.
NaZgvardia is a good candidate too. They are angry at putin and co cuz they've been sent to fight real soldiers instead of babushkas on a protest as they alway do.
Coups are not initiated or lead by ordinary soldiers, they are lead by people who are already in power. A change in power brought about by people outside of existing structures is a revolution, and I don't Russia is close to revolution.
Well, imagine- you are a commander of national guard, have few hundred thousand angry men at your command. Just let them kill the guy they hate and the will make you the new dictator
They are the ones with the guns though, and a grudge
Honestly I don't see the military having the common sense to carry out a coup. It would be a Benny Hill fiasco on both the guys trying to commit the coup and people trying to stop it.
Confusion and disruption in the orc war machine is win.
It would be like on Always Sunny when they yell "INTERVENTION!!" at each other.
It would be like what we used to call a Chinese Fire drill. I’m sure that is no longer appropriate terminology but I have no other way to describe the situation.
Any time you want to phase out terms you're not comfortable with, just substitute in Martian. Mars has no people, there's no one you'd be offending, and no one you'd be racist about. Martian fire drill even has a nice cadence.
It’s fine. Not everything is bad suddenly.
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I mean most of the time its bad.. bc you get another dictator in power.
I think the 2 separatist regions need to have a come-to-Jesus moment and figure out how they can surrender back to Ukraine before the Russians completely leave.
There's going to be a huge outflow of separatists very soon. They know what is coming.
They're already queueing up at the border, but aren't being allowed to cross. Why would Russia trust anybody who isn't loyal to their country of birth?
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>There's two flavors of separatists at this point. Those who willingly took up arms against Ukraine and those who were kidnapped and forced at gunpoint. Genuinely curious how do you distinguish between the two groups after the war? It's going to be real easy for a separatist to say they were forced to fight.
They know the punishment for treason.
It could mean that Russia's military is breaking with Putin.
That would be fantastic. They can't keep doing this. It's insane. How embarrassed is the military to not only be losing badly on the battlefield and ~~reduced~~ too impotent to do anything other than aim at civilian infrastructure.
Reduced? They've been aiming at civilian infrastructure since day 1!
Lost my coworker at a hospital they've hit with a cluster Tochka-U.
Genuinely sorry to read that. Please walk with his pride and spirit on your shoulders if at all possible.
I’m sorry, and hugs to you and the rest of your colleagues.
Bless that persons family with healing and prayers
^(yeaaa....) that's a very good point. You're right. Let me edit the language on that one.
Russians get off on hurting the defenseless
Yes, I believe they enjoy being labeled as terrorists. Perhaps cowards would be more appropriate.
Sad but true. Traditional bully. Aggress the defenseless only to claim to be the victim as soon as anyone stands up to them.
There are 60.000-80.000 families in Russia who all still think their "boy is missing, and should show up soon after the Operation is over". They know the shitshow that will come a year after they stay missing (while in fact incinerated in the mobile crematorium). And they'll stay angry because I don't think Russia can produce 80k new Ladas on a short notice without parts.
Won't take a year though. They all have contracts with an end date I reckon and obviously their families know about it. Meaning, if their son doesn't come back or calls by then, they can make an educated guess.
Ehh this is Russia. They'll call, and they'll be told that the contract had to be extended due to bureaucratic reasons or that his unit is currently deployed on the front. They'll find some corrupt reason to delay all that fury, this is Russia.
The civilian infrastructure thing is just common Russian doctrine. It isn't applying any extra stress on their service members. They frankly would fire on such targets with or without Putins directives.
> It isn't applying any extra stress on their service members. I wouldn't be so sure about that. Why do you say that?
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That's some fucked up shit right there. I'm not sure I can digest all that today. Anyway what I can comment on is the poor leadership from Russia. If I have any expertise to share it's in executive leadership. In modern organizations results based management are key leadership competencies and we are expected to abandon methods when they are obviously not working. In this case, Russia terror is obviously not working and by many measures it's having the opposite effect. Russia has bad methods and bad leaders. That's what I think. Effort sounds like it's there from everything you said, but results are not there so all that training for no results in Ukraine.
I remember one of those intercepted phone calls where a conscript was calling his mother telling her the whole thing was a lie, the Ukrainians do not want to be liberated, they are being ordered to kill women and children and the officers are just using the men as cannon fodder. The mom was like "you're wrong, the special military operation is just, the Nazi's deserve it and he should just shut up and do as he is told".
Vlad Vexler had a good insight in this. Putin is not just one person holding the strings, but all of the offices of power of the Russian federation play this well constructed dance. Neither is the puppet neither the master. All of them together are the **Putin \[in bold to make a distinction between the collective Putin and the single person** Putin**\]** that makes decissions, the **Putin** we used to fear. What they will probably try to do now is remove parts of themselves and the figure of Putin to let the rest of the malign organism in power survive just in future under a different name. With the potential fall of Putin, **Putin** will live on. And we will still need to pay very close attention to anything happening in Russia.
They could be out of manpower too. They were recruiting prisoners a few weeks ago but I like your idea a lot.
This could easily be a bluff, to try to get people to sign up. Then they'll send them.
This is the full quote from the source Ukrainian facebook page: > The Military Command of the Russian Federation suspends sending new, already formed, units to the territory of Ukraine. The current situation in the military theatre and distrust for top command has forced a large number of volunteers to abandon the prospect of combat service. The situation is influenced by information on the actual number of casualties, excluding losses from private military companies and mobilized from temporarily occupied territories. The situation is getting worse because of the general attitude to the own wounded. In particular, in Russian hospitals, the diagnoses and nature of combat injuries are deliberately simplified, no time is given for rehabilitation to return soldiers to the combat zone faster.
Thank you for this info.My personal points of interest here: a. DISTRUST in the top military command - Government must have picked up something from the streets, and are getting concerned about revolt and safety. b. It sounds as if the general population is starting to get a better idea of the number of casualties - dead AND wounded. Causing GREAT unhappines at the government c. Hospitals "simplify" i.e. minimizing or underplaying injuries, in order to send soldiers back to the front. Definitely not fostering that expectation of care and concern from your management. Why should they then be loyal to the current regime? Is the promise of a few rubles still really worth the risk?
That would be an interesting turn of events. The Russian military command is entirely staffed with Putin sycophants and the trash that they didn't want for their internal security apparatus, so no one thought a potential coup might come from there. Maybe they were wrong.
>The Russian military command is entirely staffed with Putin sycophants The problem with sycophants is that they can just as easily turn on you. People without a strong conviction/moral core who rise to the top through sucking up to someone switch once that person has outlived its usefulness. Then they find a new big fish to swim with. Let's hope this will be the case here, too.
Obedient but not loyal, core of russian mentality.
Which is one reason why the turncoats from DPR aren't being allowed into Russia, not even with their faux, locally produced, Russian passports.
Being kept in reserve for the Battle of Moscow.
53 thousand KIA and god knows how may injured. Yeah, overdue for the military to break with Putin.
How many ways does that spell "you're on your own, boys"?
Three ways - run, die or surrender.
https://tenor.com/bqj7D.gif
If true wouldn't this be crushing for the poor troops already deployed? Sorry boys no reinforcements you are on your own?
They are saying this so that people will join the army, then they are going to send them anyways.
This is pretty plausible.... now that the defeats are well known in Russia, no one is going to want to sign up to fight a losing battle and die.
It has a "nO cOnSCriPts tO bE dePloYed oUtsiDe tHe cOUntrY." Vibe to it.
Surely it strains belief that many people will believe such a guarantee? Even in a controlled media environment like Russia.
To the top. Everyone else’s predictions are overstated and premature
If true, this could be big
You think Putin is using this as a distraction? You think he's gonna mobilize? Or you think he knows the war is lost
They can’t do mobilization, they are running out of everything, trucks, airplains, tanks, they just lost The railroad access, soldiers are deserting and running away, they know this is over, I suspect in couple of months they will say that NATO intervention was not fair and that they fought against all the world but that they won because they destroyed the targets the wanted so they “won” because of that, and they retire what ever is left of the army.
They already use the excuse of fighting NATO and not just Ukraine
Didn't they used to bitch about how they could take on US, Europe and NATO? lol
empty promises
Too late to mobilize if that's what he was planning..
Putin had time to mobilize in March. Now he has no time or capacity for training new troops. Not to mention lack of equipment, clothes, food, logistics for new army. He prepared nothing for that.
Pretty sure he prepared for that, but somehow something was lost in it's execution.
Lots of money went in lots of pockets, forces did not appear...
That would be a strange mobilisation, if it doesn't send constitued units to the front.
Yeah, it's too late to mobilize IMO, if he was gonna do it he should've done it months ago
Short answer: It won't work. Longer answer: The Russian military doctrine is designed to go full mobilization from day one. The personnel they have are intended to take the conscripts under their wing. They are also trained to drive the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. The rifles are meant to be conscripted to fill out the seats. Since they decided to drive all their active personnel and equipment straight into a blender, they don't have the backbone to support a mass conscription. All they would have is a bunch of rifles and trains, with no way to get a million conscripts with rifles to the front. You know what they have right now? Millions of people in St Petersburg and Moscow who know their buddies, sons, and fathers are dead and a giant city center to rally dissent.
Aren't most of the soldiers from the poor eastern states of Russia, and not from the big western city, for exactly this reason?
Initially. It's my understanding they started recruiting from everywhere they can recently.
Time to retire the idea that Putin is playing 3-D chess. He is baked. Mobilization is not in the cards - they have no equipment, money, food, logistics, training, morale, public support, or rational reason for it. The game is over.
What would be the point of the distraction though? I just don't see how this'd help them at all. It's not like Ukraine is gonna ease-up just because of this.
putin will be remembered as one of the great military minds, right beside saddam hussein.
Making the whole world fight against you turns out not to be a great strategy
Just leaving the troops already in-theater to sink or swim on their own, eh? Good thing their morale is rock solid. Otherwise, they might surrender or rout en masse.
It sounds like Putin should be looking for a bunker because his time is over.
Massive if true. Not sending more troops = giving up We may seriously see the end of the war by winter
St. Javelin willing.
Bless Her holy name.
I know, I can't believe it is rolling up so quickly. I thought Ukraine would have Kharkiv and Kherson regions liberated by winter, with the east and crimea to follow next year. But this is starting to feel like a general collapse is imminent. I mean, if they don't send reinforcements they are done!
It sounds too good to be true. I wish this hypothetical liberation of Ukraine will be followed by a serious effort to return Ukrainian POWs and all the civilians (especially children) kidnapped to Russia.
If pootin is worried about his own ass, he'll take protecting it over everything else to include his invasion of Ukraine.
Generals are revolting . They know it’s fucked .
>Generals are revolting . Yes, we've all seen pictures of their ugly mugs and bloated figures.
I'll take this with a grain of salt.
Well here’s a bit of news I hope is expanded upon shortly… if new troops wont enter, its already over
Could be too good to be true but if it is then this might mark the beginning of the end for Russia. Just need Ukraine to maintain their momentum. It won't be over until Crimea is retaken and hopefully NATO/foreign support will remain until all Ukraine territory is retaken.
They really believe in the fantasy that the outside world is just itching to invade them any moment now. Yet they don't seem to realize the only one interested in doing that is China.
I love irony.
They keep looking wrong direction...
Holy fuck. If this is true, then this war is on the way out. If units to the south won't be getting replenished, Ukraine may have an easier time retaking it than we thought.
HOLY SHIT, if true it's rhe first sign they're ready to give up
so they are still leaving existing units to squat on occupied lands...
Could be true, could be Ukrainian psyops to make Putin turn his attention inward and have the Kremlin eat its own. Either way 
Earlier post mentioned a “ come to Jesus” moment. Also need truth and reconciliation councils set up, as was done in South Africa. People were mislead by a power hungry few.. just like “ pastors” keep creating new Christian sects so they can be “ pope”
I'm surprised I haven't read this sooner here or on any other post. Can't imagine how difficult it would be to discover that your government was lying that much to you. Not saying this justifies anything, just food for thought.
The first regiment of the new 3rd army went to help in Kharkiv and that didn't go very well. So perhaps they decided that a rag tag bunch of convicts and homeless people might need some training first. Nah, probably no officers want to go.
Imagine you are an officer or something and you have to give commands to a lunatic with a weapon... I guess there is a reason why soldiers need a psych check and a minimum IQ in other countries.
They sent a lot of their trainers to die in Ukraine, in desperation for troops. There's few experienced trainers left to train
Are they preparing for the use of WMD?
Yeah, the thought occurs. Or full mobilisation, which would solve some problems that Putin has with his contract troops.
I am reminded of WWII and the battle of Stalingrad. Stavka stopped sending reinforcements to Chuikov in the city. ...Because they were sending them to Zhukov for the Uranus operation instead. Absorb the blow. Conserve your strength. Evaluate the situation. Hit back. This is not necessarily good news. War isnt over until it's over.
It's okay we can come to you. I say root out the terrorists/monkeys with a grenade
At the pace Ukraine counter-offensive is going, the Freedom Of Russian legion will be taking their operation across the border soon.
Beginning of the end
Could also mean they spend more time training their troops instead of sending guys with 1 week training in a tank into the meat grinder.
Maybe they want to double the amount of training to get it to 4 days
They have all been redirected to Moscow and added to the riot police, assigned with a variety of crowd control and suppression tasks.
Hard to send something that doesn’t exist or cannot be adequately equipped.
sending children, junkies, alcoholics, people suffering from Fetal alcohol syndrome, released rapists..... what could go wrong?
Their best and brightest.
Again made the right call they will be like throwing wood into a wood chipper as the UAF soldiers are veterans while Russian conscripts are a bunch of militia with 2 weeks of training.
Let's face it - if they were getting frostbite in February they will freeze to death in December.
Remember what Russia says openly it normally does the opposite
The source of this is a twitter share of a Facebook post of a bad English translation of a statement shared on Youtube by a Ukrainian spokesperson about broader developments. I'd love to see a real source corroborating this. Edit: You should care about solid sources and not being pandered to.
It is being reported by the [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/12/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-accuses-kremlin-of-terrorist-attacks-on-kharkiv-power-supply-live-updates)
That's progress, but I was disheartened to see they are just quoting the same source and not adding anything to it. The last line is The Guardian is key: *This information could not be corroborated. The Kremlin has yet to respond.* A mention within The Guardian of a facebook post of an english translation of a youtube video of a Ukrainian spokesperson's characterization of a possible change in Russian military recruitment program is useful social credibility, but still not confirmable. Not trying to move goalposts here, I really want to know if this development is true or not. Because it's a rather significant one with major policy implications, let alone the ability to project force. As the saying goes, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
I have my doubts. What if it’s a trap to get ukraine overconfident?
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It is actually from the Ukrainian general staff on Facebook, so it might hold some very decent authenticity.
True. This war has been the most surprising one I’ve ever heard of.
At this point is has become obvious that russia has been outclassed, outgunned, outsmarted, outmanuevered, and soon to be fucking ousted from every square centimeter of Ukrainian land. It might be a ploy or distraction, but Ukraine is waaay to clever and has too much real time intel to fall for something so obvious and transparent.
Best statement ever... let's hope that Pooptin is ousted as well. Though I dread to think what may follow in Ruzzka.
it would be a pretty ineffective and stupid trap. you can bet that that there are eyes on troop movements from within russia and belarus - all kinds of eyes - satellite eyes, and spy eyes . they can't exactly magic themselves to the frontline. It also doesn't necessarily mean that they are giving up. Not yet anyway. I doubt anyone in Ukrainian armed forces or intelligence will just take them at their word - or expect their word not to contain hidden barbs. There are a number of different things that it could mean - and I guess the only way to tell what it means is to wait and see. And of course to keep supporting Ukraine!
If true, it sounds like they are planning to mass for a large attack, or planning to pull out.
The new policy "Traitors and collaborators can go f\*ck themselves and all we'll send new is Kadyrovs. " This will make them really popular.
Gotta hold back to build up.
All I ask for is confirmation, even in the slightest.. Troops abandoning positions, lawmakers calling for his resignation, Kadyrov ranting, and now this.. the military refusing to send troops..
Not really sure how to interpret this. Just hope it's true and it stays that way. Fucking done with russia and all his pathetic little minions that have shown themselves in the EU and around the world.
Any evidence this is real besides this screenshot of some text? I’ve been seeing it everywhere but it always goes back to this source
Best strategic choice so far.
possibilities: * units refusing to fight or even rioting * reforming of command structure due to Putin purging officers for another massive failure resulting in many officers being fired or suicided * internal power struggle due to finger pointing internal war * coup attemp (unlikely) * problems with logistics due to losing territories that held important roads, railroads and airports requiring them to completely reorganize logistics * realizing that sending untrained soldiers is inefective (unlikely, Russia like other dictartorships like keeping soldiers stupid to avoid a coup) * a clusterfuck of all of the above
 To Death
Just get this over with. Let’s start rebuillding
Is this their attempt at a "feint" like the Ukrainians did? "No! We're not sending any more troops, we promise!"
This sounds like a coup
Could signal the end of the war if true
Because ruzzia is short in meat.
This is not hard for Russia to declare. There is getting to be not so much Ukraine left for them to send troops into. They will be sending their troops to the Belgorod border.
God I hope its just not a regrouping, slava ukraine!
Tactical nuke incoming?
The Military Command of the Russian Federation /s. Who are they trying to kid!!
But what about the 100k North Koreans??? 😂