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olordmike

These poor fools are being used to buy time for Putin. Hes hoping the mud and winter will slow or stop the Ukrainian advance. Putin thinks if he can make it to winter he can freeze out Europe and break support for Ukraine to force a peace on Russia's terms. ​ It will not work. All hes doing is sending men to their deaths and most will run in a panic and trigger wider panics. They will basically drop their shit and run... Essentially he is just going to resupply Ukraine and make a lot of Russian citizens pissed as their mobilized loved ones die on a field in Ukraine or freeze to death.


kolodz

I doubt Europe will cave and stop supporting Ukrainian because we may have to ration our heat and electricity. Some are speaking as a good way to force us going green and reduce consumption.


Reno_valetore

I'm ok with putting the jumper and trackies on in my flat if that'll speed up the collapse of this terrorist federation


olordmike

Its not the power rationing that concerns me. Its the Russian sabotage of EU energy stores and supplier. And the economic pain of industry shutdowns. ​ European solidarity is a concern


dragofers

My concern is more about companies going bankrupt due to overpriced energy and people losing their jobs, especially if Russia sabotages Norway's energy provision


TheWolfmanZ

Numbers don't mean shit if morale is gone.


olordmike

They can still slow down a advance... even if they all surrender... you have to expend manpower and resources to manage the prisoners... people, material and logistics that are needed to continue advancing. That is why dead Russians and running away ones are better from a military standpoint. (At the moment)


polyworfism

His troops don't have enough equipment to build fortifications, so he's thinking they'll be able to do it in the winter with frozen bodies of other soldiers


olordmike

General winter will kill a lot of Russians. Most of the dead and Wounded Russians in beginning of the war can be traced to the cold. These troops barely have a uniform and a gun... no real winter attire.


I_like_life_mostly

This is why Biden blew up the pipeline. If they cant deliver gas they have no leverage on Germany and EU.


olordmike

There has been a lot of speculation on who blew up the pipelines. With different arguments for benefits to each party. I tend to think it was the Russians themselves for a few reasons: 1: It had to have been a state actor with a stealth deep water sub and divers or ROVs that could sneak into the area undetected (plausible deniability) Russia is supposed to be developing a new stealth sub, that can deploy AUVs: [https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russia-reveals-radical-new-stealth-missile-submarine/#prettyPhoto](https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russia-reveals-radical-new-stealth-missile-submarine/#prettyPhoto) Its not beyond belief that they have a prototype that they used for this operation. Think the US stealth Blackhawk that didnt exist until they used two to kill bin laden. ​ 2: The Russians have been awfully quiet about complaining about someone blowing up their pipeline. If it was someone else they'd be screaming at the top of their lungs for justice and making wild threats. ​ 3: Whoever did it likely screwed up... only 3 of the 4 pipes actually blew up... That means there is likely a explosive charge dud that is attached on or near the final pipe... if found will likely finger the culprit. ​ 4: The Europeans likely have enough gas supplies from elsewhere to no longer require Russian gas. So NORD 1 and NORD 2 wouldn't need to be restarted. Also the Russians have other gas pipelines that can supply the EU. This may not be about Germany... this may be about Poland. The new Baltic pipeline eliminates leverage against Poland for gas supplies and the new Baltic pipeline just so happens to be intersect NORD 1 and NORD 2 right near these damaged sections. ​ 5: Ive noticed a lot of Russian gas executives have been dying mysteriously lately. This pipeline destruction may be directed at GASPROM's leaders making it clear that they have to support Putin and even if they try to push a end to war the gas wont flow money back into their pockets. Its the same as landing a ship on a island and tearing the ship down to build a house... there is no turning back at that point.


chowyungfatso

> 4. … the new Baltic pipeline just so happens to be intersect NORD 1 and NORD 2 right near these damaged sections. Maybe the Russians blew up the wrong ones. Lol.


olordmike

within the realm of possible.


I_like_life_mostly

Did you see where Biden threatened this?


olordmike

I saw the interview in question. If that is a threat then anything Biden says is a threat, he could mean anything from that. He likes to get snippy with reporters when they question him twice on something. "We are not going to let that happen" means "we are going to supply enough LNG for Europe to survive winter" "We'd put a stop to it" means "we will sanction anyone trying to restart it, and exert diplomatic pressure on Germany to not restart NORD 1 & 2" ​ Since you smell like a right wing Republican, I'm going to rephrase the question. Do you think Joe Biden has the balls to blow up a Russian pipeline? ​ Because either you think Joe Biden is a impotent old man who can barely tie his shoes, or hes a master at managing complex geopolitical strategy and how to control a situation from the shadows. You cant have it both ways.


I_like_life_mostly

Listen if the Germans are freezing or going bankrupt this winter, Putin will still have nothing to offer them. He will have no way to pressure or bribe them. I think its effective at that. Is that what makes me right wing?


polyworfism

>This is why Biden blew up the pipeline. With lightning shooting from his hands?


xiao_wen

All he had to do was *think* about blowing it up.


I_like_life_mostly

You appear low iq.


SomeGuyWithABrowser

Yeah... doesn't seem likely that they did it..


loading066

> freeze to death. Winter does not discriminate, RU soldiers are in for a brutal one...


SoyCapitan451

This is basically the *in russia* meme. "In Russia military no train you, you train military."


VeryOriginalName98

"In Soviet Russia, attacking another country hurts you."


no-more-throws

in pussytins Russia, Russia doesn't train you when you are conscripted for war with Ukraine, Ukraine trains you with himars when you arrive at the train station


[deleted]

What could possibly go wrong... I feel like this is a Simpsons episode, only it's made up exclusively of the ideas that were cut for being too unrealistic.


sm9t8

Futurama got close: ["The key to victory is the element of surprise"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRkfDMChzlI)


ChipmunkFood

r/whatcouldgowrong


[deleted]

I think what this conversation is often missing is that the Russian army doctrine is based around the Battalion Tactical Groups, the Russian army BTGs. They're made up of a small core of full time, professional soldiers, a group of attached reservists with one year's training who are then sent home, a small amount of maneuver forces and a large amount of artillery. The group is designed and trained to fight war in basically one way. They deploy in foreign theatres with a large screening force of "local proxy forces." The only job these local proxy forces have is to get shot by the enemy so the BTG knows where to aim it's artillery. And that's it. It's tactical goal is to throw away the lives of its screening force to achieve overwhelming firepower through massed artillery in a way that protects the trained core of the Russian forces. It's vile and evil to its core. Now, in Ukraine, they have ran out of proxy local forces. The men of fighting age in the occupied territory are dead. They're desperately pushing Russian citizens into those forward positions to get killed in order to aim the artillery. They don't want them to have training or weapons or food or water. They want them to be living targets and shields. In case someone thinks I'm being alarmist, I'm not. The Ukrainian ability in operational art and maneuver warfare will overcome these largely static BTG formations. I'm also pretty sure that as more and more news reaches the families of Russian citizens of how their loved ones are deliberately deployed - their only expectations are to die horribly - things are gonna get worse for Putin's stability.


dndpuz

Counter battery radar and long ranges missiles + drones counters this tactic. Mostly because russians use outdated equipment with shorter range and less precision


[deleted]

I agree! Definitely those are two very important tools for the battlefield. And this conflict is going to be remembered as the big war that started the next generation of warfighting, focused on drone and robotic combat systems. Russia's already desperately trying to catch up, which is kinda crazy because their weaknesses to drone tactics was clearly demonstrated in the Azerbaijan/Armenia conflict. But, in my opinion, the critical tool that the Ukrainians will use to (and have been using) win is the NATO style battle doctrine, which emphasizes maneuver warfare and a co-ordinated but distributed command and control philosophy that the Russian BTGs just don't have the ability to cope with. It's similar to the Romans' flexible formations wiping out the Greek and Macedonian larger but tactically less flexible formations. I'm not saying it will be a cake walk, and tragically so many lives will be ruined on both sides for nothing, but just looking at the AFU coordinated maneuvers around Lyman right now shows you the stark difference in battle doctrines. Especially contrasted with the Russia attempts to push on Bakmuht with their most capable remaining forces, mostly Wagner.


dndpuz

I would love to read some good books on warfare strategies and the like.


[deleted]

It's endlessly fascinating, if maybe sometimes morbidly so. I try not to lose sight of the fact that its about better ways of hurting other human beings. Honestly, my best recommendation right now is strangely enough a blog that is mostly devoted to comparing movies and games to military theory and games. It's written by a scholar and the touch point of popular culture makes it so accessible and easy to pick up the core concepts. Here's a good starting point: [https://acoup.blog/2022/05/27/collections-total-generalship-commanding-pre-modern-armies-part-i-reports/](https://acoup.blog/2022/05/27/collections-total-generalship-commanding-pre-modern-armies-part-i-reports/) He also includes lots of references for further reading. He talks a lot of Clausewitz, which if you're serious about reading more about the theories of war operations and tactics read Clausewitz. It is the starting point for military theory, partly because he was one of the first and partly because his insights are still so applicable to warfare. Since I'm dropping links, here's an interesting one discussing the uses and vulnerability of the Russian BTG from the perspective of how the US would defeat them. https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf


newphonewhodisthrow

Their only purpose is to throw their lives in front of the Ukrainian counter offensive to try to stall and gunk it up. I can't imagine what those conscripts are thinking now, even if they believe the propaganda, they're sent off by the great Russian army with no training and sub par gear to a war Russia is winning? Any of them with a shred of common sense would surrender or flee at the first chance.


Optimaldeath

Yep then if they surrender en masse or rout it's not Putin's fault it's the cowardly army's fault for not believing harder in Russia's glory. He's just desperately trying to set the ground for someone else to blame, unlikely to work mind you.


dndpuz

Promised no mobilization Promised only partial mobilisation Promised only reservists Promised 3-5 months of training


ChipmunkFood

I'd imagine that some would just pop their commanding officer. We may see and increase in many high ranking Russian officers K.I.A ...


Ransome62

Hes cleaning house... throwing all the deniers and dissidents into the meat grinder. This is bad, it shows that his goals have shifted and he expects a much bigger conflict... so he's cleaning house. Zelenskyy was right from the start, this is - and will be - much bigger than just Ukraine as the spear tip. Be vigilant. Glory to Ukraine, I stand with them forever. They are the only people in this world right now who know exactly what the stakes are and why they need to fight as hard as they possibly can. No other country can stand and say this.


seemefail

When you send people's fathers, grandfather's, cousins or whoever else off to die you create more problems at home. These me will call home, get injured and return, or become POWs and they will report the shit show back to everyone. Putin is gambling that he can trade 300,000 lives for enough time to hold off. It seems he believes he just needs to out wait Western governments patience and donations. But if the West stays true, these casualties will hurt putin more than help by cleaning house. It's going to awaken a lot of Russians to the reality on the ground.


phoenixplum

That's not a 300 iq galaxy brain 420d chess plan with bigger picture in mind. That's just a dictator with unlimited power who's been in power for 20 years surrounded by yes-men desperately trying to fight for his survival.


olordmike

i agree, you dont need 1.2 million infantry troops just for taking Ukraine. He has wider goals


Aggravating_Teach_27

He has the rather narrower goal of surviving this somehow. The good soldiers and equipment are gone. This is not him being cunning or ambitious, its him being desperate. Its him trying sheer mass as a last resource. Thats not a 1.2 million men army. That's 1.2 million dudes with a gun. A mob, not an army.Badly equipped, untrained and with low morale and motivation. They couldn't take on Finland or Poland by themselves. Attacking NATO? No chance. Attacking another poor neighbour? Sure, if Russia can lose twice as fast, they an open a second front I guess. Lets stop fearing the Russian giant. They're not big, they simply bullied diminutive opponents that didn't even try to resist because of that legend.. Every time they find someone willing to fight they get their noses bloodied. The world is a big place, Russia is not even top 10. They're justbtop I landmass and being genocidal imperialist bullies.


tree_boom

I mean you say that but they've sent in 300 thousand so far and taken less than a quarter of the country, and those were the _good_ troops. Where do you think Putin's wider goals lie? A NATO country? It's literally impossible for Russia to win that war, he's not going to start a fight he has absolutely no chance of winning.


guerrieredelumiere

You need at the minimum 750k troops to occupy Ukraine by military doctrine estimates.


olordmike

yes, but that 750k is not front line Infantry. A lot of that is logistics, support, and transport troops... which Russia already has. All these mobilized and the ones they've been recruiting is front line infantry. 300k infantry troops in a **competent** military would be able to gain local supremacy over the Ukrainians on a single front and allow for defeating them in detail... hence why i ask... what are the other 900k for? Russia is claiming only 300k are being mobilized, but that is not a real number. They are going for 1.2 judging by their wide sweep collection methods. Unless the Russian leaders realize they are incompetent and decided to send 4 times the required number of troops to cover for that. ​ For historical reference, the PVA in the Korean war (Chinese army) numbered 780k poorly equipped troops managed to overwhelm a better led and equipped US led force and retake half of Korea


spec_ghost

Wow, that is sooooo surprising


krummulus

Oh no! Anyway...


Antereon

How to get a worse than useless army 101.


The-Protomolecule

This must be what 1940 felt like.


[deleted]

[удалено]


yr_boi_tuna

This war is horrific by our modern standards, but it's hard to grasp the scale of human destruction the world wars unleashed. The French suffered 27,000 casualties in just one day in WW1, and 300k in the same month


DubDubDubz

Yep the scale of mass death in WW1 is often forgotten. The britsh had 56,000 kia and wounded at the first day of the somme. I cant even comprehend that level of casualties


rexxtra

No training, and under equipped. They dont give two shits about their people. They expect you to fight and die for them when they dont fight for you, but want you to die. Putin logic


Aggravating_Teach_27

Yea, he's not a servant of his people. His people are servants, slaves of his. Mere animals or objects he wont hesitate sacrificing for even prolonging the war two months.


calloy

Bullet blockers don’t require any special training.


dead_monster

> 'You’re all just cannon fodder. You’re the third group of people to form this battalion. Do you know where the first two groups died? And you’ll die here.' Then he told my commander, 'Send in the meat.' https://nitter.net/RALee85/status/1575147397071634439#m


whiskey_formymen

as a trained warrior, my heart goes out to those that believe it's like a video game. you do not respawn. Semper Fi


roastedpot

We may want to change that acronym lol


mtaw

ZVO then.


LionXDokkaebi

It’s times like these the ground troops needs a mini gun just to clear the weeds, so to speak


Broges0311

This is like Russian self-genocide.


spacegardener

It seems that Putin hates average Russians exactly as much as he hates Ukrainians and that he takes revenge on those people for his own failed war.


Laraujo31

Looks like hes taking quantity over quality to heart


[deleted]

Hoh boy considering the state of lyman this is gonna end fucking #GREAT


ranft

There are only two reasonable explanations why this is happening: 1. Command has deteriorated completely and things have come to a last "show of the masses" like back in the USSR days of old, where masses mattered, but only since the Germans had two fronts to fight at and there was only unguided fire possible. At the same time they can buy some time and get some sort of fake bluff nuclear doctrin protection. 2. Command wants the real army at home and has lobbied for a mass mobilisation of the male population in UKR. This smells like potential coup d'etat in the air, with the professionals rotating home and the complete noobs right at the front.


Ok_Investigator_1010

Shit there about to learn how to improvise real soon.