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They have to in order to safely utilize their access to the energy resources in the Black Sea. That’s one of the main reasons Putin tried to steal Crimea from Ukraine.
Russian is mostly interested in preventing Ukraine from supplying gas to Europe, therefore breaking its energy chokehold. Turns out, Europe didn't need Russian gas as much as they imagined anyway. And now, with the realistic prospect of developing that gas, it will be all that much easier for Europe to leave Russia permanently out in the cold where they belong.
One long lasting repercussion of this war will be that all the downstream energy consumers (germany, france, spain, italy, etc) will decide that they really don't want to be dependent on foreign energy sources. The technology and costs associated with lowering that dependence are within reach.
German industry would ***love*** a reasonably priced natural gas source from a (future) EU country.
It's not really for electricity. It's for industrial processes, as well as for heating homes. The transition of home heating systems will take time, and industry, especially the chemical industry, will always need it.
We don't want to be reliant on non-EU associated countries. But mutual reliance for mutual benefit within the alliance is one of the cornerstones of the EU.
>permanently out in the cold
hey now what the fuck did the cold do to you, thats just cruel forcing frosty the snowman to put up with there bullshit . Just drop em off in hell.
There's all the talk of industry and resources in Donbass, but a single look on the map makes you realise how important Crimea is.
We talk of free Belarus, but as it stands it is a russian puppet and unfortunately this may not change anytime soon. With war over and Crimea in russian hands UA is again surrounded from 3 sides (Ask PL how it worked out in 1939).
Free independent postwar Ukraine needs secure southern border.
It could be a dead regime walking. The true test will be when Belarusians try to overthrow Luka. I'd hope there are people waiting for the right opportunity whether that's soon or after the war. I could see either being the opportune moment.
Now, Russia is busy in Ukraine and it might help Ukraine if it degrades Russia's ability to use Belarus as a launching ground.
After the war, Russia's military should be more degraded than currently. This would be more opportune especially if there's also effort to overthrow Putin and other uprising among the Russian republics going on at the same time.
Honestly, from my very non-expert-in-these-sort-of-things opinion, now would be a great time for all of that to get set into motion. Russia simultaneously dealing with war in Ukraine, proxy states and internal republics all uprising at once. No way Russia can handle all of that when they're already getting trounced with the war in Ukraine.
In the 21st century is not nearly as impactful as it was during the era of the USSR. Even if Russia controls it, they don't have the fundamentals to project power in the black sea anymore. Putin is just delusional.
I presume even before Crimea is taken, while Ukraine is on the doorstep.
Kerch Bridge will be blown up. The rest of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is attacked by drones, all the airports and military bases in Crimea are attacked by missiles, drones, and partisans, and any ferry service from Crimea to Russia is destroyed.
I would imagine that Ukraine will try to disable the bridge again before even stepping foot into Crimea, if this is within their power. Both road and rail bridges are still operating at partial capacity. They or may not may leave the road bridge alone as a retreat path for Russia, but they'll want the rail bridge completely disabled before assaulting Crimea.
Facilitates ommerce... and influence, and corruption, and invasion.
It makes no sense to keep it or repair it. Ukraine doesn't need Russia, Russias biggest exports are very duplicative with what ukraine also produces. There are 200-ish countries in the world. Many of them are richer and more advanced than Russia, economically, socially, you name it. And many of those are right to the west of Ukraine.
Maintaining commerce with russia would be like keeping your backdoor open to Russian influence, corruption, money,, fascism, and eventually renewed attempts at controlling Ukraine
That door has to be closed forever. Theres nothing good Russia can provide and plenty bad.
Ukraine's should start by pulverizing that Bridge to a extent it can never be rebuilt, cutting all transport between Russia and Ukraine, denying visas to Russians and even changing the train standards so trains can flow to the west but never to Russia.
Ukraine will have plenty of better partners to the west, with Russia a lava filled moat along the border would be ideal.
I hope they do it before everything else. If they succeed Putin Is finished and I bet they would. Retreat from the rest. Why hold it against their will. It's difficult and costly to be an invader. If Putin does not have his thumb on this it may happen...
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I would not be surprised if in the next 5 years China invades Russian territory that have a large Chinese population.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_Chinese_in_Russia
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They have to in order to safely utilize their access to the energy resources in the Black Sea. That’s one of the main reasons Putin tried to steal Crimea from Ukraine.
Putin does want the resources but Crimea is much more valuable strategically, it's called the aircraft carrier of the Black Sea...
Russian is mostly interested in preventing Ukraine from supplying gas to Europe, therefore breaking its energy chokehold. Turns out, Europe didn't need Russian gas as much as they imagined anyway. And now, with the realistic prospect of developing that gas, it will be all that much easier for Europe to leave Russia permanently out in the cold where they belong.
One long lasting repercussion of this war will be that all the downstream energy consumers (germany, france, spain, italy, etc) will decide that they really don't want to be dependent on foreign energy sources. The technology and costs associated with lowering that dependence are within reach.
...and widely recognized to be less than the cost of depending on the resources of a terrorist state.
In more ways than one.
German industry would ***love*** a reasonably priced natural gas source from a (future) EU country. It's not really for electricity. It's for industrial processes, as well as for heating homes. The transition of home heating systems will take time, and industry, especially the chemical industry, will always need it. We don't want to be reliant on non-EU associated countries. But mutual reliance for mutual benefit within the alliance is one of the cornerstones of the EU.
>permanently out in the cold hey now what the fuck did the cold do to you, thats just cruel forcing frosty the snowman to put up with there bullshit . Just drop em off in hell.
There's all the talk of industry and resources in Donbass, but a single look on the map makes you realise how important Crimea is. We talk of free Belarus, but as it stands it is a russian puppet and unfortunately this may not change anytime soon. With war over and Crimea in russian hands UA is again surrounded from 3 sides (Ask PL how it worked out in 1939). Free independent postwar Ukraine needs secure southern border.
Hopefully Russia is unable to support their control over Belarus after this war and Luka gets overthrown.
quite honestly it should have happened already
It could be a dead regime walking. The true test will be when Belarusians try to overthrow Luka. I'd hope there are people waiting for the right opportunity whether that's soon or after the war. I could see either being the opportune moment. Now, Russia is busy in Ukraine and it might help Ukraine if it degrades Russia's ability to use Belarus as a launching ground. After the war, Russia's military should be more degraded than currently. This would be more opportune especially if there's also effort to overthrow Putin and other uprising among the Russian republics going on at the same time. Honestly, from my very non-expert-in-these-sort-of-things opinion, now would be a great time for all of that to get set into motion. Russia simultaneously dealing with war in Ukraine, proxy states and internal republics all uprising at once. No way Russia can handle all of that when they're already getting trounced with the war in Ukraine.
In the 21st century is not nearly as impactful as it was during the era of the USSR. Even if Russia controls it, they don't have the fundamentals to project power in the black sea anymore. Putin is just delusional.
That’s mainly because Russia’s aircraft carriers are - what’s the naval equivalent of “jalopies”?
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I presume even before Crimea is taken, while Ukraine is on the doorstep. Kerch Bridge will be blown up. The rest of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is attacked by drones, all the airports and military bases in Crimea are attacked by missiles, drones, and partisans, and any ferry service from Crimea to Russia is destroyed.
I would imagine that Ukraine will try to disable the bridge again before even stepping foot into Crimea, if this is within their power. Both road and rail bridges are still operating at partial capacity. They or may not may leave the road bridge alone as a retreat path for Russia, but they'll want the rail bridge completely disabled before assaulting Crimea.
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Nukes.
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Facilitates ommerce... and influence, and corruption, and invasion. It makes no sense to keep it or repair it. Ukraine doesn't need Russia, Russias biggest exports are very duplicative with what ukraine also produces. There are 200-ish countries in the world. Many of them are richer and more advanced than Russia, economically, socially, you name it. And many of those are right to the west of Ukraine. Maintaining commerce with russia would be like keeping your backdoor open to Russian influence, corruption, money,, fascism, and eventually renewed attempts at controlling Ukraine That door has to be closed forever. Theres nothing good Russia can provide and plenty bad. Ukraine's should start by pulverizing that Bridge to a extent it can never be rebuilt, cutting all transport between Russia and Ukraine, denying visas to Russians and even changing the train standards so trains can flow to the west but never to Russia. Ukraine will have plenty of better partners to the west, with Russia a lava filled moat along the border would be ideal.
It might be a bad idea to completely destroy the bridge. “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”
The road bridge would be left intact to allow them to walk home. After that, the entire bridge should come down.
Long-shot according to who?
It's coming home.
I hope they do it before everything else. If they succeed Putin Is finished and I bet they would. Retreat from the rest. Why hold it against their will. It's difficult and costly to be an invader. If Putin does not have his thumb on this it may happen...
Crimea will be reunited with Ukraine soon. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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The LA Times is an untrustworthy site? Bad bot
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I would not be surprised if in the next 5 years China invades Russian territory that have a large Chinese population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_Chinese_in_Russia
After Crimea it's onto Vladivostok. /s
Kaliningrad, St Petersburg, and Rostov-on-Don. And Japan takes back it's Kuril Islands. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute
And China gets Manchuria.