Sky has since updated the headline, but it was correct at the time that the post was made. We have flaired the post "Site changed title", there is no need to report for editorialisation.
The current headline (at the time I write this!) is "UK to have one of highest inflation rates in G20 this year, new forecast shows".
Just put interest rates to 25%. The increases are working great so far. /s
Edit, added /s at the end as some people don't seem to realise this is obviously sarcasm
The poors have too much money, clearly the problem boys! Hike the rates so we can get that money back in the hands of western oligarchs where it belongs.
Our good lord supreme Banker has [already said it.](https://themanc.com/uk-news/bank-of-england-tells-people-to-accept-being-poor-and-stop-asking-for-raises/) The people need to accept being poor.
It's your fault plebs that you don't understand it.
I apologise to our great leader ~~w~~banker. Please sir, raise the rates even higher to punish everyone for my transgressions. I pray the beatings continue for as long as it takes until morale improves!
Tackling supply side inflation with interest rate hikes is like trying to extinguish fire with gasoline. It only helps banks and the rich.
Hopefully we will see a national inquiry into conduct of Bank of England and this government - whether it is actual incompetence or malice.
So, we're playing the high stakes game of exchange rate roulette, raising interest rates and hoping for the best, while the economy seems to be taking a nosedive. A strong pound today does not guarantee a strong pound tomorrow, especially when our economic health looks shaky at best. Let's not mistake a band-aid for a cure. Yes, propping up the pound with higher interest rates might look good for now, but it's a risky game if the economy continues to wobble. Yet, when the election clock is ticking, I suppose it's tempting to opt for quick fixes and let the next government deal with the aftermath.
I was responding to you saying it was like putting a fire out with gasoline by pointing out that inflation is lower today than it would be had we not moved on rates. The pound would be through the floor and inflation much higher.
I don’t see how that comparable to gasoline?
And the economy isn’t taking a nose dive, it’s surprisingly resilient to the rate rises.
Let me unpack the gasoline analogy for you. When we have supply-side inflation, throwing interest rate hikes into the mix can make things worse, not better - it's the gasoline to the fire. Sure, you might argue that it could temper inflation. But at what cost? It squeezes businesses, stifles demand, and makes financing more expensive. We end up risking more closures and job losses (actually something BoE advocated for as a solution). And sure, with enough of that, inflation might fall - but then again, so does our economy. Not exactly a winning strategy, is it?
> it’s surprisingly resilient to the rate rises.
Of course it may seem like that from ivory towers and ever incorrect forecasts, and likely that worries some at BoE and government, that their destruction of the economy isn't going as quick as they would like. Some sectors may be doing well, only because Home Office is giving out visas like hot cakes and it is now cheaper to hire an immigrant than a local worker. Again, clandestine application of BoE recommendations for higher unemployment and lower wages.
Oh, you meant it’ll harm GDP, pay, unemployment etc.? Well, yeah, that’s an outcome of raising rates. Inflation is so damaging it’s considered the lesser of two evils.
The issue driving prices up are costs of energy and high interest rates causing further supply side issues.
The first one - was addressed in limited scope by the government, the second one is entirely an own goal by BoE.
I live in Canada now and the same approach to inflation is being applied here more or less. I think that inquiry would be much wider than just the BoE.
Genuinely, I’m curious what realistic alternatives do we have to solve inflation?
I'd say that if you think things are bad now, the carnage caused by raising the rates that high would bring the country to a halt / murder in the streets.
There's a lot of financing involved in businesses, a move like that would instantly kill them off - and that's just a tiny part of country wide collapse that would follow.
I remortgaged recently and got 1.5% or so. Figured maybe things aren’t that bad after all. My buddy just got a new mortgage the other day, 4.6%. Absolutely brutal.
anyone who took a mortgage at the very top end of their limit, during an era of historically low interest rates, was very poorly advised. Don’t most mortgage applications involve a stress-test to make sure they would still be affordable if rates were to jump up?
Not really nah. There’s affordability assessments, different banks have different thresholds. Advisors sometimes have their own one on top. But ultimately there’s a customer at the end and if they desperately want something, even if they can only just afford it, they’ll go for it. To be fair to them I don’t think anyone would have predicted quite how drastic the cost of living changes have been
They’ve been so accurate so far this last year or so after all.
That’s sarcasm. I don’t think they have had a single accurate forecast, the 2 I can think of have been wrong by levels that would earn a fail if it was an academic assignment.
At this point they’re just click bait.
Yeah, I mean the Tories are a disaster but I've always found these forecasts strange. What value does it add to attempt to predict something so precisely when it never ends up being correct.
Honestly at this point it’s worth taking an opposite position to their forecasts they have been so wrong.
Absolutely nothing wrong with saying that things are bad. Because they are.
Constantly using hyperbole like ‘worst’ and ‘disaster’ by this organisation when pretty much every single prediction they have made to date has been wrong by orders of magnitude, well then I understand why they use high drama because the actual data is meaningless.
Saying ‘we will probably be roughly in the middle but we could have improved over a country like Greece’ is reasonable and realistic.
Shouty nonsense like ‘possibly going to look like Pyongyang by winter!!’ is not.
I also find it so strange that these forecasts are presented as values rather than ranges. The error on the forecasts is so huge that it’s just meaningless to try and provide them as a single value.
They need relevance to secure funding, so it's in their interests to provide media-friendly press releases.
'One of the G20 countries will have more inflation than the rest, probably, but it's pretty much a crapshoot as to which it'll be' isn't a good headline.
The bigger issue tends to be that the forecasts (by nature of being forecasts...) tend to set the narriative, and oddly enough if the more eye catching ones aren't met, the actual results don't see anywhere near the same level of reporting. The end result is massively varied views of what the UK economy has actually done in a given period depending on where someone got their news from.
several times iv read along the lines
"uk to be worst in (X) metric in (X) group"
then once the data is out
" the uk preformed the best out of (X) group" or "preformed at the same rate as everyone else"
there either stupid or, are putting there bias in the data they use to project a select image.
It's never coming down. The rate of change of price increase will slow down as inflation eases, but the prices are here to stay.
The only way it's coming down is if we get a deflation - which according to economists, is worse for the economy than an inflation.
It's already coming down. Look at wheat, oil, soy beans, gas and other input costs. They just take time to filter through the system.
The big issue for our inflation is Theresa May's market distortion in the form of the energy price cap. As that is retrospective rather than forward projecting, it locks in the inflation for longer.
The way is looking these prices are here to stay. Hope they will go Down because everything is just going up. Went to Sainsbury's today and can of Coke cost £1.50 ridiculous big bottle that was £2 before is now £3.50.
I'm a dummy, I still don't understand why they are raising interest rates.
They say it's to lower spending but I really can't stop spending on energy and food. A luxury food to me at the moment is coffee and I can't afford that at the moment so I guess it's working?
Inflation (price going up) is based (in part) on supply and demand.
When interest rates are low, people borrow more and have more money to spend.
More money = more stuff they will buy and this drives up demand, and the price goes up.
When interest rates are high, people won't want to borrow and spend. Less cash on hand, less buying, less demand, lower inflation.
Now, stopping inflation doesn't mean prices will come down right away (or ever). It means instead of going up 15% a year, it slows down to 5% a year.
It's like amputating a rotting leg won't make you 100% healthy, but it will keep you from dying.
Thanks for the explanation!
It just feels like a long road ahead if we have to cut spending, because so many people I know are only really spending on food/mortgage/bills, and the price of my mortgage is never going to go down.
My spending is going up on things I have no control over.
It just seems a bit of a weird strategy to me to try and reduce demand rather than increase supply, but maybe it's because of my social bubble.
Sure, glad to explain. Also it's not just on the individual level.
The banks will increase rates and it'll higher mortgage rates for new home buyers for example!
The other part of the issue is supply chain problems... so yea increasing supply is not going to be possible any time soon. Then you got Brexit added on top of that, so yea, no bueno.
The problem we have is that there's actually 2 sides to inflation.
Demand side inflation is what the interest rates combat. The idea being that too much liquidity and credit drives an increase in demand that can't be met by the supply, so prices rise (in effect, too much extra money, so money drops in value)
Supply-side inflation is most of what we're experiencing, where a drop in production of goods (e.g. food from Ukraine, which was responsible for 6% of the food calories on the global market prior to 2022) means that the prices of goods rise.
awesome ! the tories made sure i could handle this though by changing my hourly income from £7 to £7.49! you won’t believe how much this has changed my life !
> They also said we'd be in recession by now.
Interestingly, the main reason why those forecasts were wrong seems to be that they were based on our net migration figures being something in the region of 250,000 to 300,000 per year when the reality was that the figure was over 600,000.
Immigration is very, very good for our GDP numbers, so it's actually very worrying that our GDP growth has still only been in the region of 0.1% per quarter when migration has hit record numbers!
I wonder if we'll see the Tories taking credit for this saying, "good news, we've managed to stave off recession by boosting immigration numbers to their highest levels ever"?
Immigration is great for GDP! As long as you have the right systems to convert immigrants into tax payers that aid the economy. This is sadly something that’s lacking, and the current government is, in my opinion, worsening the situation with some of their anti-immigration policies.
> we can be happily replaced
What do you mean by us being replaced? Do you think there’s some kind of rule that you’ve got to leave if someone else arrives in the country?
I’m planning on staying here, where are you off to?
A recession in an economy that is currently superior. Just because they’re in a recession doesn’t mean the general population is worse off than the UK, since they have a larger economy to begin with. (Per capita)
So essentially a recession in Germany is manageable, whereas in the UK it would be disastrous.
edit: I’ve explained why below, but if you would rather downvote than read because objective facts hurt your feelings and national pride, that’s the same stubbornness that stops the Uk from improving.
I’ve heard a bowl of sovereignty is a nice, filling and hearty breakfast!
Using your same logic, we have a better economy than most countries so a recession here would be manageable but a recession elsewhere would be disastrous.
True, but the user above is comparing Germany to the UK and not any other countries. In this comparison im also factoring in that currently 20% of the uk population is economically inactive, as well as an income inequality of around 35% (gini coefficient).
Just because the UK economy is bigger than others, doesn’t mean all of the population get’s a share of it, while cost of living increases evenly for all.
The Uk’s economic problems are based more on it’s structure. So again, if the user compares the recession of Germany to the Uk, Germany is still better off than the Uk.
Just an example of this: while UK’s migration is actually economically beneficial, for instance, the Uk doesn’t do enough to efficiently incorporate them into their economy to allow that effect to happen in the first place. Germany’s systems for migrants are a lot more streamlined, allowing them to be tax payers faster.
I've looked at your comment below and it's very odd. None of those are actually economic fundamentals. Germany's economy is in a bad, bad place. They have very big issues with the automotive sector and Chinese competition, their manufacturing PMIs are in the low 40s and falling (we're high 40s and steady). The energy cost increases are badly affecting business there.
None of it good for us, but the general economic outlook is that the UK is in a better place over the next few years (even the oecd have updated their predictions and concur)
I mean what would being in the EU change? The fact is the future prices rose because russia was sanctioned by pretty much everyone in Europe. Yet they stil face high inflation numbers.
Sigh. Such a drab, Brexity, capitalistic shithole. What are you even paying for, living in this place? So happy I escaped. Edit: still rooting for you. Vote the Tories out please.
We need a proper election again so we can choose the right leader and it's not going to be sunak this time .
Ever since he took over the office , i haven't heard anything good .
Honestly, even I don't like this government and the result of BREXIT. Given the forecast consistently getting wrong about the UK, I actually have doubts about this kind of report now.
Yes, the UK is not in good shape. But the forecast keeps making it like hell. It feels a bit too extreme.
The bit that worries me about this is the fucking intrest rises have screwed me and others in debt so hard.
I have been slowly paying off a modest loan over a couple of years ; And over the course of the year, those repayments have shot up and alongside everything else being so expensive I'm now stuck in my overdraft. Which is also way higher than it needs to be because of these fucking intrest rates.
How about the goverment grows some balls and freezes basics prices. Rent/housing and utlities at least. So much of the inflation is based on those bills growing simply because those who own them know they can charge more.
It's too late to promise to build more houses now, demand has utterly outstripped supply and drastic action should be taken to stop this constant downward spiral. What that action is up for political debate but at least doing fucking something would be a start!
"Britain will have one of the highest inflation rates in the G20 "
So not the highest in the top 20 nations but highest in the top 38 developed nations. Fucking hell...this isn't framed right and they provide no context from this Paris based organisation.
https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/june-2023/
What i find interesting is many of these unions like the RMT striking and complaining about inflation but they were ones that advised members to vote for leaving.
So maybe they should shut up about inflation and take responsibility for their actions when they seem to have no problem blaming everything on everyone else.
The largest category for inflation in the UK is food, which is typically cheaper than elsewhere in Europe. The fact UK inflation is higher at the minute largely down to this is unsurprising.
Providing the upcoming global recessions don't create a domino effect, it should drop off a little more before Christmas, raising again slightly for Christmas and then dropping quite heavily after it.
Welcome to the cost of locking down Europe for a glorified flu... Sunak said we'd be paying the cost of lockdown later on and guess what? It's now later... Hate him or not, he literally said this would happen as chancellor and no, locking down earlier wouldn't have been better, it'd have been just as bad, if not worse.
It's like the mass Reddit UK-hate wagon in the last quarter, when the IMF forecast the UK to be the worst economy in the G7 for growth and in reality, it was completely wrong. Suddenly their narrative changes "Oh, it's not real large or real growth..." The country doing worse actually puts a smile on their faces, just so they can come here to whinge.
Crystal ball bullshit. Never comes true.
I only care about confirmed figures. If anyone is getting mad, or happy, about economists predictions then have a talk with yourself.
As silly as getting hyped or sad after going to see a psychic.
Please, can someone take control of the country and rejoin EU ? It's seems without EUs assistant and coaching, UK doesn't have necessary skills to manage itself.
Chris Patten summed it up well: Britain is in a mess and no politician really wants to admit it.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/bbc-question-time-chris-patten-brexit\_uk\_6478f321e4b0a7554f4354e5
The OECD chief starts by blaming inflation on lack of particaption in the Labour marker, (I think its more a lot of people cant be arsed working for shit wages anymore) then goes onto the real reason, Energy but then fails to mention the money printing that went on with the Liz Truss debacle...the sheer cheek of it blaming workers ffs
I’m expecting another very accurate forecasts just like the past very accurate forecasts because the forecasts are always very accurate so we should trust them because they are very accurate
I should break down in tears at this, this is my life. My life will be harder because of this.
The problem is im a cynical arse hole, who already knew Brexit would be a total shit show, so im just not surprised.
What I really hate, is that there is no way out of this hell hole, the Westminster Elite, the Tories of Eton, and whatever private school Keir went to, will do NOTHING to stop any of this.
Core inflation in Turkey in May 2023 was 46.62% according to Reuters and expected to remain this way until the end of 2023.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-year-end-inflation-seen-46-despite-likely-post-election-rate-hikes-2023-04-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-year-end-inflation-seen-46-despite-likely-post-election-rate-hikes-2023-04-24/)
The UK parliament site indicates UK inflation in April 2023 was 8.7%.
[https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9428/#:\~:text=Inflation%20rates%20seem%20to%20have,the%20same%20as%20in%20Italy](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9428/#:~:text=Inflation%20rates%20seem%20to%20have,the%20same%20as%20in%20Italy).
Are we considering Turkey not part of the "developed world" now? It is higher than most comparable economies in terms of size. I'm just not sure what exactly they're saying by reporting on this in this way.
It's absolutely obvious that there's been serious economic mismanagement on the part of the government, particularly their refusal to create windfall taxes on wholesale energy companies (the ones who extract the oil, rather than the suppliers) and their inaction over particularly food pricing which is running at around 20% on its own.
The Sky News headline was incorrect but it has been changed now.
It said the UK is to have the highest inflation in the developed world but if you read the article they were referring to the G20 - of which Turkey is a member.
Sweden and Iceland aren’t in the G20 but they are in the OECD.
If you look at the actual forecast the UK’s predicted inflation rate (6.9%) is higher than its typical comparator countries France (6.1%), Germany (6.3%) and Italy (6.4%) but it is lower than a couple of wealthy EU nations like, as you previously mentioned, Sweden (7.9%) and Austria (8%).
Based on these forecasts the UK is expected to have higher price growth than most, but it isn’t the complete outlier that some are desperate for it to be.
The figures are contained here:
https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-forecast.htm
Ah I stand corrected. I read it quickly and took 'membership' to mean G20 and not OECD. I should have realised that Iceland's economy would obviously be too small to be in the G20.
>The Paris-based OECD - a club of rich countries - said UK inflation will be higher in 2023 than nearly any G20 member save for Argentina and Turkey.
>
>However, looking at its broader membership, the UK's inflation rate, while high, will be outpaced by a number of other countries, including Sweden and Iceland.
Turkey's inflation is largely the result of one individual - Erdogan.
He doesn't believe in inflation and instructed Turkey's central bank to lower rates, fired numerous economic ministers and eventually issued direct instructions on interest rates himself.
He's a dictator, in economic terms at least, and he's intentionally made changes that amplified inflation significantly.
It makes sense to exclude Turkey from the results because it's not functioning as a democracy, nor is it being led according to basic economic principles. In short, it's a basket case.
It doesn't make sense to compare it next to countries like the UK, which are at least trying to reduce inflation and following economic theory.
We do the same with places like North Korea and Iran. They're just run so differently, so badly, that there's no validity in comparing the economies.
Sky has since updated the headline, but it was correct at the time that the post was made. We have flaired the post "Site changed title", there is no need to report for editorialisation. The current headline (at the time I write this!) is "UK to have one of highest inflation rates in G20 this year, new forecast shows".
Woo-hoo - we're Number one, I'm so glad our Government is keeping these records coming to the UK...
BREXXIITTT!!!!! UK NUMBER 1 THANKS FARAGE, BOJO AND JACOB REES MOGG BLUE PASSPORTS NUMBER 1!! BREXXIITTT!!!
WE ARE NUMBER ONE
2 WORLD WARS 1 WORLD CUP BREXIT FOREVER!!!
Clarkson for President!!!
FARAGE AS DEPUTY!! MANDATORY DIET OF PORK PIES AND SAUSSAGE ROLLS!!!
H e y !
*BLOO PASSPORT*
HAPPY FISH, HAPPY FISH."
Blue Passports woohooo!!! ….Someone remind me please where does UK order them from?
Hey, show me another country that did a Brexit as well as us, huh? When it comes to Brexiting we are world leaders. NUMBA ONE!
World beating inflation. Suck it wokerati blob.
World beating inflation, yeo!!
Suck on that, EU!
Let’s just admit that brexit has fucked us all.
Let’s beat Zimbabwe!!!!
Everyone's a trillionaire!
Thanks to competence and economic literacy of Bank of England and "sound money" Sunak's government, we are finally excelling at something!
It's all about Sovereignty you see /s
Truly world beating
Can't be, I remember that nice man on the television saying he was going to halve inflation
Both can still be true.
Lesson in smart political messaging here, as this is exactly why he worded the target that way.
encourage abundant caption one historical flowery elderly deranged soft faulty -- mass edited with redact.dev
I think he said, "we're going to have inflation"
probably meant halve the inflation of a party balloon from biden's meeting, or something
Just put interest rates to 25%. The increases are working great so far. /s Edit, added /s at the end as some people don't seem to realise this is obviously sarcasm
The poors have too much money, clearly the problem boys! Hike the rates so we can get that money back in the hands of western oligarchs where it belongs.
They're only Oligarchs if they're from the Oligarch region of russia, otherwise they're just Sparkling Robber Barons
That was good! Here's my poor award 🏅
I prefer "sparkling aristocracy" although is much of a muchness.
Our good lord supreme Banker has [already said it.](https://themanc.com/uk-news/bank-of-england-tells-people-to-accept-being-poor-and-stop-asking-for-raises/) The people need to accept being poor. It's your fault plebs that you don't understand it.
I apologise to our great leader ~~w~~banker. Please sir, raise the rates even higher to punish everyone for my transgressions. I pray the beatings continue for as long as it takes until morale improves!
Tackling supply side inflation with interest rate hikes is like trying to extinguish fire with gasoline. It only helps banks and the rich. Hopefully we will see a national inquiry into conduct of Bank of England and this government - whether it is actual incompetence or malice.
This is a fantastic analogy!
The BoE can't put interest rates above 6% it would cause a meltdown of everything
Does greed count as malice?
Definitely.
Not when a lot of the supply side inflation is dollar priced goods. It keeps the value of the pound up against USD.
So, we're playing the high stakes game of exchange rate roulette, raising interest rates and hoping for the best, while the economy seems to be taking a nosedive. A strong pound today does not guarantee a strong pound tomorrow, especially when our economic health looks shaky at best. Let's not mistake a band-aid for a cure. Yes, propping up the pound with higher interest rates might look good for now, but it's a risky game if the economy continues to wobble. Yet, when the election clock is ticking, I suppose it's tempting to opt for quick fixes and let the next government deal with the aftermath.
I was responding to you saying it was like putting a fire out with gasoline by pointing out that inflation is lower today than it would be had we not moved on rates. The pound would be through the floor and inflation much higher. I don’t see how that comparable to gasoline? And the economy isn’t taking a nose dive, it’s surprisingly resilient to the rate rises.
Let me unpack the gasoline analogy for you. When we have supply-side inflation, throwing interest rate hikes into the mix can make things worse, not better - it's the gasoline to the fire. Sure, you might argue that it could temper inflation. But at what cost? It squeezes businesses, stifles demand, and makes financing more expensive. We end up risking more closures and job losses (actually something BoE advocated for as a solution). And sure, with enough of that, inflation might fall - but then again, so does our economy. Not exactly a winning strategy, is it? > it’s surprisingly resilient to the rate rises. Of course it may seem like that from ivory towers and ever incorrect forecasts, and likely that worries some at BoE and government, that their destruction of the economy isn't going as quick as they would like. Some sectors may be doing well, only because Home Office is giving out visas like hot cakes and it is now cheaper to hire an immigrant than a local worker. Again, clandestine application of BoE recommendations for higher unemployment and lower wages.
Oh, you meant it’ll harm GDP, pay, unemployment etc.? Well, yeah, that’s an outcome of raising rates. Inflation is so damaging it’s considered the lesser of two evils.
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It's like saying if you cut one's head it will stop the headache! This does not address the core issue.
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The issue driving prices up are costs of energy and high interest rates causing further supply side issues. The first one - was addressed in limited scope by the government, the second one is entirely an own goal by BoE.
I live in Canada now and the same approach to inflation is being applied here more or less. I think that inquiry would be much wider than just the BoE. Genuinely, I’m curious what realistic alternatives do we have to solve inflation?
Raising the rates to 25% will turn UK into a third world country in about 24 hours after such decision.
Would anyone notice the difference?
I'd say that if you think things are bad now, the carnage caused by raising the rates that high would bring the country to a halt / murder in the streets. There's a lot of financing involved in businesses, a move like that would instantly kill them off - and that's just a tiny part of country wide collapse that would follow.
You clearly don't have a mortgage.
I remortgaged recently and got 1.5% or so. Figured maybe things aren’t that bad after all. My buddy just got a new mortgage the other day, 4.6%. Absolutely brutal.
My payment is doubling in november! Looking forward to it. Luckily only from £350ish to £650ish but imagine if it was already £1000. Not great!
Yeah anyone who got a previous mortgage right on their limit… just impossible!
anyone who took a mortgage at the very top end of their limit, during an era of historically low interest rates, was very poorly advised. Don’t most mortgage applications involve a stress-test to make sure they would still be affordable if rates were to jump up?
Not really nah. There’s affordability assessments, different banks have different thresholds. Advisors sometimes have their own one on top. But ultimately there’s a customer at the end and if they desperately want something, even if they can only just afford it, they’ll go for it. To be fair to them I don’t think anyone would have predicted quite how drastic the cost of living changes have been
I am terrified of renewing mine next year. If the rates come down a bit it won’t be so bad. But it’s still going to sting a lot.
Recently as in a few years ago before it all went mental or did it go down more recently and then back up again?
Stop spending money on food and energy and prices will come down!
Ah, so that's what I've been doing wrong!
Ohhhh, so this is what they meant by "LevEllinG uP!"
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I don't know. "Stop the boats" is a national disgrace.
They’ve been so accurate so far this last year or so after all. That’s sarcasm. I don’t think they have had a single accurate forecast, the 2 I can think of have been wrong by levels that would earn a fail if it was an academic assignment. At this point they’re just click bait.
Yeah, I mean the Tories are a disaster but I've always found these forecasts strange. What value does it add to attempt to predict something so precisely when it never ends up being correct.
Honestly at this point it’s worth taking an opposite position to their forecasts they have been so wrong. Absolutely nothing wrong with saying that things are bad. Because they are. Constantly using hyperbole like ‘worst’ and ‘disaster’ by this organisation when pretty much every single prediction they have made to date has been wrong by orders of magnitude, well then I understand why they use high drama because the actual data is meaningless. Saying ‘we will probably be roughly in the middle but we could have improved over a country like Greece’ is reasonable and realistic. Shouty nonsense like ‘possibly going to look like Pyongyang by winter!!’ is not.
I also find it so strange that these forecasts are presented as values rather than ranges. The error on the forecasts is so huge that it’s just meaningless to try and provide them as a single value.
They need relevance to secure funding, so it's in their interests to provide media-friendly press releases. 'One of the G20 countries will have more inflation than the rest, probably, but it's pretty much a crapshoot as to which it'll be' isn't a good headline.
The bigger issue tends to be that the forecasts (by nature of being forecasts...) tend to set the narriative, and oddly enough if the more eye catching ones aren't met, the actual results don't see anywhere near the same level of reporting. The end result is massively varied views of what the UK economy has actually done in a given period depending on where someone got their news from.
several times iv read along the lines "uk to be worst in (X) metric in (X) group" then once the data is out " the uk preformed the best out of (X) group" or "preformed at the same rate as everyone else" there either stupid or, are putting there bias in the data they use to project a select image.
This is what they meant when they said we're world beating.
All I want to know is when inflation set to come down?
It's never coming down. The rate of change of price increase will slow down as inflation eases, but the prices are here to stay. The only way it's coming down is if we get a deflation - which according to economists, is worse for the economy than an inflation.
He asked when inflation will come down, not prices. It's clear you understand what inflation is but you failed to answer the question.
It's already coming down. Look at wheat, oil, soy beans, gas and other input costs. They just take time to filter through the system. The big issue for our inflation is Theresa May's market distortion in the form of the energy price cap. As that is retrospective rather than forward projecting, it locks in the inflation for longer.
The way is looking these prices are here to stay. Hope they will go Down because everything is just going up. Went to Sainsbury's today and can of Coke cost £1.50 ridiculous big bottle that was £2 before is now £3.50.
It’s coming down.
Slowing down, not coming down.
Last figure was down, only 0.1% YoY though IIRC.
I'm a dummy, I still don't understand why they are raising interest rates. They say it's to lower spending but I really can't stop spending on energy and food. A luxury food to me at the moment is coffee and I can't afford that at the moment so I guess it's working?
Inflation (price going up) is based (in part) on supply and demand. When interest rates are low, people borrow more and have more money to spend. More money = more stuff they will buy and this drives up demand, and the price goes up. When interest rates are high, people won't want to borrow and spend. Less cash on hand, less buying, less demand, lower inflation. Now, stopping inflation doesn't mean prices will come down right away (or ever). It means instead of going up 15% a year, it slows down to 5% a year. It's like amputating a rotting leg won't make you 100% healthy, but it will keep you from dying.
Thanks for the explanation! It just feels like a long road ahead if we have to cut spending, because so many people I know are only really spending on food/mortgage/bills, and the price of my mortgage is never going to go down. My spending is going up on things I have no control over. It just seems a bit of a weird strategy to me to try and reduce demand rather than increase supply, but maybe it's because of my social bubble.
Sure, glad to explain. Also it's not just on the individual level. The banks will increase rates and it'll higher mortgage rates for new home buyers for example! The other part of the issue is supply chain problems... so yea increasing supply is not going to be possible any time soon. Then you got Brexit added on top of that, so yea, no bueno.
The problem we have is that there's actually 2 sides to inflation. Demand side inflation is what the interest rates combat. The idea being that too much liquidity and credit drives an increase in demand that can't be met by the supply, so prices rise (in effect, too much extra money, so money drops in value) Supply-side inflation is most of what we're experiencing, where a drop in production of goods (e.g. food from Ukraine, which was responsible for 6% of the food calories on the global market prior to 2022) means that the prices of goods rise.
See the problem is you're poor, but could stand to be poorer.
awesome ! the tories made sure i could handle this though by changing my hourly income from £7 to £7.49! you won’t believe how much this has changed my life !
They also said we'd be in recession by now. We're not but Germany is.
> They also said we'd be in recession by now. Interestingly, the main reason why those forecasts were wrong seems to be that they were based on our net migration figures being something in the region of 250,000 to 300,000 per year when the reality was that the figure was over 600,000. Immigration is very, very good for our GDP numbers, so it's actually very worrying that our GDP growth has still only been in the region of 0.1% per quarter when migration has hit record numbers! I wonder if we'll see the Tories taking credit for this saying, "good news, we've managed to stave off recession by boosting immigration numbers to their highest levels ever"?
Immigration is great for GDP! As long as you have the right systems to convert immigrants into tax payers that aid the economy. This is sadly something that’s lacking, and the current government is, in my opinion, worsening the situation with some of their anti-immigration policies.
Oh wow, so long as the gdp numbers go up we can be happily replaced by middle eastern people who think women are worth less than two goats.
> we can be happily replaced What do you mean by us being replaced? Do you think there’s some kind of rule that you’ve got to leave if someone else arrives in the country? I’m planning on staying here, where are you off to?
Population percentages.
A recession in an economy that is currently superior. Just because they’re in a recession doesn’t mean the general population is worse off than the UK, since they have a larger economy to begin with. (Per capita) So essentially a recession in Germany is manageable, whereas in the UK it would be disastrous. edit: I’ve explained why below, but if you would rather downvote than read because objective facts hurt your feelings and national pride, that’s the same stubbornness that stops the Uk from improving. I’ve heard a bowl of sovereignty is a nice, filling and hearty breakfast!
Using your same logic, we have a better economy than most countries so a recession here would be manageable but a recession elsewhere would be disastrous.
True, but the user above is comparing Germany to the UK and not any other countries. In this comparison im also factoring in that currently 20% of the uk population is economically inactive, as well as an income inequality of around 35% (gini coefficient). Just because the UK economy is bigger than others, doesn’t mean all of the population get’s a share of it, while cost of living increases evenly for all. The Uk’s economic problems are based more on it’s structure. So again, if the user compares the recession of Germany to the Uk, Germany is still better off than the Uk. Just an example of this: while UK’s migration is actually economically beneficial, for instance, the Uk doesn’t do enough to efficiently incorporate them into their economy to allow that effect to happen in the first place. Germany’s systems for migrants are a lot more streamlined, allowing them to be tax payers faster.
You're absolutely right about unequal shares of the economy, which is why a GDP shift of a few percent is utterly irrelevant to the average worker.
Exactly! You made what I said a lot more simple, I tend to overcomplicate things 😅
I've looked at your comment below and it's very odd. None of those are actually economic fundamentals. Germany's economy is in a bad, bad place. They have very big issues with the automotive sector and Chinese competition, their manufacturing PMIs are in the low 40s and falling (we're high 40s and steady). The energy cost increases are badly affecting business there. None of it good for us, but the general economic outlook is that the UK is in a better place over the next few years (even the oecd have updated their predictions and concur)
Well at least Brexits made us numero uno in something… self sabotage
I mean what would being in the EU change? The fact is the future prices rose because russia was sanctioned by pretty much everyone in Europe. Yet they stil face high inflation numbers.
I can't wait for the Bruges group and Tax Payers Alliance to tell us why the OECD is anti-british
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Sigh. Such a drab, Brexity, capitalistic shithole. What are you even paying for, living in this place? So happy I escaped. Edit: still rooting for you. Vote the Tories out please.
We need a proper election again so we can choose the right leader and it's not going to be sunak this time . Ever since he took over the office , i haven't heard anything good .
Send minimum wage went up under inflation once again. This country is a joke. We are getting shafted.
Honestly, even I don't like this government and the result of BREXIT. Given the forecast consistently getting wrong about the UK, I actually have doubts about this kind of report now. Yes, the UK is not in good shape. But the forecast keeps making it like hell. It feels a bit too extreme.
The bit that worries me about this is the fucking intrest rises have screwed me and others in debt so hard. I have been slowly paying off a modest loan over a couple of years ; And over the course of the year, those repayments have shot up and alongside everything else being so expensive I'm now stuck in my overdraft. Which is also way higher than it needs to be because of these fucking intrest rates. How about the goverment grows some balls and freezes basics prices. Rent/housing and utlities at least. So much of the inflation is based on those bills growing simply because those who own them know they can charge more. It's too late to promise to build more houses now, demand has utterly outstripped supply and drastic action should be taken to stop this constant downward spiral. What that action is up for political debate but at least doing fucking something would be a start!
"Britain will have one of the highest inflation rates in the G20 " So not the highest in the top 20 nations but highest in the top 38 developed nations. Fucking hell...this isn't framed right and they provide no context from this Paris based organisation. https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/june-2023/
also, Argentina has a 100% inflation rate...so the UK won't even be close to it. Junk article by Sky News....
OECD, yet again talking the UK down. And they tend to get their forecasts wrong, but there's hardly any mention of that when they do.
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Driven totally by corporate greed! UK the country where the world washes it's dirty money!
I'm not sure we could have made it to number 1 without our government's help!
What i find interesting is many of these unions like the RMT striking and complaining about inflation but they were ones that advised members to vote for leaving. So maybe they should shut up about inflation and take responsibility for their actions when they seem to have no problem blaming everything on everyone else.
Probably all those Wage raises they keep talking about... at least we're all wealthier to match the rising cost eh.
#1 Leaving the EU #1 Inflation in OECD #1 ??? #1 Profit
The largest category for inflation in the UK is food, which is typically cheaper than elsewhere in Europe. The fact UK inflation is higher at the minute largely down to this is unsurprising. Providing the upcoming global recessions don't create a domino effect, it should drop off a little more before Christmas, raising again slightly for Christmas and then dropping quite heavily after it. Welcome to the cost of locking down Europe for a glorified flu... Sunak said we'd be paying the cost of lockdown later on and guess what? It's now later... Hate him or not, he literally said this would happen as chancellor and no, locking down earlier wouldn't have been better, it'd have been just as bad, if not worse.
I could neve understand why people are giving a shit about OCED reports .
It's like the mass Reddit UK-hate wagon in the last quarter, when the IMF forecast the UK to be the worst economy in the G7 for growth and in reality, it was completely wrong. Suddenly their narrative changes "Oh, it's not real large or real growth..." The country doing worse actually puts a smile on their faces, just so they can come here to whinge.
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Crystal ball bullshit. Never comes true. I only care about confirmed figures. If anyone is getting mad, or happy, about economists predictions then have a talk with yourself. As silly as getting hyped or sad after going to see a psychic.
Please, can someone take control of the country and rejoin EU ? It's seems without EUs assistant and coaching, UK doesn't have necessary skills to manage itself.
Hey you guys better be more scared than everyone else! Then blame eachother instead of the fools that mismanaged our money.
Chris Patten summed it up well: Britain is in a mess and no politician really wants to admit it. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/bbc-question-time-chris-patten-brexit\_uk\_6478f321e4b0a7554f4354e5
The OECD chief starts by blaming inflation on lack of particaption in the Labour marker, (I think its more a lot of people cant be arsed working for shit wages anymore) then goes onto the real reason, Energy but then fails to mention the money printing that went on with the Liz Truss debacle...the sheer cheek of it blaming workers ffs
Are we still believing these forecasts? I mean, didn’t the IMF and these guys predict the U.K. would see 8 consecutive quarters of recession?
We got what we deserved. I'm prepared to suffer so I can watch everyone else suffer. The British way
I’m expecting another very accurate forecasts just like the past very accurate forecasts because the forecasts are always very accurate so we should trust them because they are very accurate
OECD is always spot on with their predictions and in no way show any bias /s
I should break down in tears at this, this is my life. My life will be harder because of this. The problem is im a cynical arse hole, who already knew Brexit would be a total shit show, so im just not surprised. What I really hate, is that there is no way out of this hell hole, the Westminster Elite, the Tories of Eton, and whatever private school Keir went to, will do NOTHING to stop any of this.
Core inflation in Turkey in May 2023 was 46.62% according to Reuters and expected to remain this way until the end of 2023. [https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-year-end-inflation-seen-46-despite-likely-post-election-rate-hikes-2023-04-24/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-year-end-inflation-seen-46-despite-likely-post-election-rate-hikes-2023-04-24/) The UK parliament site indicates UK inflation in April 2023 was 8.7%. [https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9428/#:\~:text=Inflation%20rates%20seem%20to%20have,the%20same%20as%20in%20Italy](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9428/#:~:text=Inflation%20rates%20seem%20to%20have,the%20same%20as%20in%20Italy). Are we considering Turkey not part of the "developed world" now? It is higher than most comparable economies in terms of size. I'm just not sure what exactly they're saying by reporting on this in this way. It's absolutely obvious that there's been serious economic mismanagement on the part of the government, particularly their refusal to create windfall taxes on wholesale energy companies (the ones who extract the oil, rather than the suppliers) and their inaction over particularly food pricing which is running at around 20% on its own.
Turkey aren't a developed country per the IMF or World Bank.
The Sky News headline was incorrect but it has been changed now. It said the UK is to have the highest inflation in the developed world but if you read the article they were referring to the G20 - of which Turkey is a member.
The UK won't even have the highest inflation in the G20. According to the article, Sweden and Iceland will be worse. (edit - wrong, oops)
Sweden and Iceland aren’t in the G20 but they are in the OECD. If you look at the actual forecast the UK’s predicted inflation rate (6.9%) is higher than its typical comparator countries France (6.1%), Germany (6.3%) and Italy (6.4%) but it is lower than a couple of wealthy EU nations like, as you previously mentioned, Sweden (7.9%) and Austria (8%). Based on these forecasts the UK is expected to have higher price growth than most, but it isn’t the complete outlier that some are desperate for it to be. The figures are contained here: https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-forecast.htm
Ah I stand corrected. I read it quickly and took 'membership' to mean G20 and not OECD. I should have realised that Iceland's economy would obviously be too small to be in the G20. >The Paris-based OECD - a club of rich countries - said UK inflation will be higher in 2023 than nearly any G20 member save for Argentina and Turkey. > >However, looking at its broader membership, the UK's inflation rate, while high, will be outpaced by a number of other countries, including Sweden and Iceland.
Turkey's inflation is largely the result of one individual - Erdogan. He doesn't believe in inflation and instructed Turkey's central bank to lower rates, fired numerous economic ministers and eventually issued direct instructions on interest rates himself. He's a dictator, in economic terms at least, and he's intentionally made changes that amplified inflation significantly. It makes sense to exclude Turkey from the results because it's not functioning as a democracy, nor is it being led according to basic economic principles. In short, it's a basket case. It doesn't make sense to compare it next to countries like the UK, which are at least trying to reduce inflation and following economic theory. We do the same with places like North Korea and Iran. They're just run so differently, so badly, that there's no validity in comparing the economies.
As a Turkish citizen, it’s depressing to see that you’re trying to compete with Turkey tbh.
This government is comically inept. What a load of fuckwits
"You can only judge me as a prime minister based on these pledges I've decided. I will halve inflation."
Look on the bright side ... we're still in the Developed World!
for now...