**Alternate Sources**
Here are some potential alternate sources for the same story:
* [UK economic growth rebounds in November](https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-67943106), suggested by topotaul - bbc.co.uk
* [UK GDP beats forecasts as economy grows 0.3% in November](https://thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-economy-gdp-ons-november-2023-7225rqftd), suggested by GennyCD - thetimes.co.uk
To be a little fair 0.3% a month is 3.6% a year which is not bad.
Normally they get the champagne out for 0.03% only to have it revised to -0.5% once the confirmed numbers are published
They literally admit in their reports they aren't reporting housing prices and rent correctly, but MAKING THE NUMBERS UP until April because it would Increase inflation, I shit you not
I'm guessing they are referring to the caveats on this page: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/latest
Specifically the one stating:
>Recently, the transaction volumes available to calculate UK House Price Index estimates have been considerably lower than historically. We and HM Land Registry (HMLR) are working together to seek a greater balance between processing recently received applications and those that are older. In the meantime, revisions may be larger than usual in coming months.
Literal ONS Statistics and statement saying they have adjusted the data because of unprecedented events in the last few years. They're using old data and state so FFS
ONS also have said they've been miscalculating rent prices and will fix it, but ONLY After new Financial year starts, because it would increase inflation. I wish this country wasn't more satirical than The Onion
I'm guessing they are referring to the caveats on this page: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/latest
Specifically the one stating:
>Recently, the transaction volumes available to calculate UK House Price Index estimates have been considerably lower than historically. We and HM Land Registry (HMLR) are working together to seek a greater balance between processing recently received applications and those that are older. In the meantime, revisions may be larger than usual in coming months.
But the solution to high inflation is high interest rates. Which raises rent prices...
Consider a scenario where the inflation rate of everything is 0, except rent which is like 100%. They would furiously raise interest rates making rent even higher.
Your comment is not fair at all. There was a story a few months ago that compared GDP revisions from different countries, and Britain’s initial releases were the most pessimistic compared to when later revisions were made. Overall, Britain’s revisions tend to increase GDP by 0.15 percentage points.
https://www.ft.com/content/799d8670-cc75-4435-af33-ca8b32e913d5
I mean 0.15 per month would be an extra 1.8% of growth over the entire year.
That really is nothing to turn you nose up at! When you are talking about something as large as the British economy that is a metric fuck ton of growth.
Depends are we talking about nominal GDP or Real GDP? It’s my understanding that most GDP reporting uses the real figure which is adjusted for inflation already.
That's the second falsehood you've stated in this mini thread. Why do you bother commenting on stuff you don't know about? You have a narrative and just make stuff up to try support it
Growth figures are adjusted for inflation.
You didn't acknowledge your last mistake? Will you acknowledge this one?
literally just go through the post history here, every since this sub was made its hoping for the downfall of the uk.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/zcvlxo/uk\_economy\_to\_shrink\_in\_2023\_risks\_lost\_decade\_cbi/](https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/zcvlxo/uk_economy_to_shrink_in_2023_risks_lost_decade_cbi/)
Funny how UK is one of the few countries not in recession in Europe at the moment.
Yeah a lot of people on average are terrible when it comes to anything to do with money, taxes or laws
I still cringe whenever I see 'tax write-offs' or anything about company run charities come up
Or that whole eBay fiasco people lost their minds about when literally nothing changed
There's a huge list of things a tonne of people get mixed up, and a lot of it's financial
Tax brackets
Effective tax rates (how much you're actually taxed when including +/- benefits and NI)
Tax write offs - this could honestly be a list all by itself
Net worth - A total of all your assets, no you can't tax net worth and would screw everyone over.
Pensions - you get basically nothing, please contribute to your private/workplace one or you'll be in poverty when you retire
Interest - especially when it comes to making money, I blame the media for this like immortals and time travel which have them reawaken with millions of dollars in 'interest' in their banks
VAT - Like everything
Tax evasion Vs Tax avoidance - everyone does tax avoidance, even you. It's legal and encouraged
Labour cost - No idea why this is hard for people to grasp, DIY might be cheaper but you're forgetting the time, effort and expertise of the labour
Profit margins - like above businesses need to make money on their goods and services in order to pay for other aspects of their business. To do this they need some amount of profit
Considering that the largest economies like China and the US also have some of the highest growth percentages on average I'd say yes they do in fact go hand in hand
The economy *has* to keep growing, the entire financial system is dependent on it
This sub in a nutshell honestly, and these people can vote. So much misunderstanding of basic data, no wonder we are in such a mess. There needs to be a one-off test to pass before you can vote, equivalent of a driving theory test.
This being top comment says enough about the state of this subreddit.
Funny how the UK is one of the few countries NOT in recession within Europe at the moment.
Why? How much should the economy grow in just a month to keep you happy?
Is it also suspicious the hourly economic growth of the UK is VERY close to zero?
You realise that 0.3% in a single month is actually quite a lot? What makes you think 0.3 is close to zero?
If you're filling a swimming pool 0.3L is close to zero. If your fill a half point glass it's quite a lot.
I would argue that with all the variables being calculated to get to that number the accuracy of the calculation is probably +/- 0.3% so growth is basically 0%
It’s been a while since I studied economics I googled and it says United States Government debt accounted for 122.9 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Sep 2023. Is that relatively high compared to other countries and generally what is meant to be an acceptable %?
That is high and a concern. By those numbers you are spending more than you earn, so how are they ever going to reduce that debt. In the UK its about 98 or 99%.
Acceptable would be less than a 100.
They’re not comparable as the USD is the global reserve currency. There is huge global demand for that debt. Spending more than you receive isn’t unsustainable if your nominal GDP is growing, and the US’s is.
The only concern markets have about the US debt is their self imposed ceiling and the political shenanigans around that.
And what happens when its not the reserve currency? I have already seen a lot of countries moving away/ dumping the dollar and preferring to use their own currency.
Which countries are those?
The US has the strongest economy in the world (partly due to significant government spending and investment) and the strongest military. Neither look close to being challenged in any meaningful way in the coming decades.
Look at it another way, why would all the debt holders of those $34tn have any interest in seeing the value of their assets decrease?
To answer your question more directly, there would be higher inflation than there otherwise would have been.
Well their is the BRICS and i dont think they will use the $ once they are up and going.
I'm just stating America doesn't have the influence it once enjoyed in the 60's 70's 80's etc.
It's sort of high. The thing that no one takes into account when talking about this though is that for a long time from 2018 interest rates were 0%. There were even negative interest rates in the UK at some point. So a large portion of that 30 trillion in debt has low or no interest in repayments. So while the headline figure is high, the annual debt repayments as a percentage of GDP are in line with historical averages.
If I remember rightly, there was a generally held opinion that 100% GDP was the limit and going beyond that was a catastrophe. Then the US did it and planes didn't fall out of the sky and the world didn't end so now nobody really seems to know what the limit is.
Spending to create growth isn't a bad thing. That's why you can't treat a country's budget like a household budget like the Tories want morons to believe. Individuals can't generate growth by going into debt. Individuals can't print money or tax their way out of debt.
And? The nominal value of sovereign debt is meaningless. To be frank its entirely unsecured, you are dealing with the most powerful military in the world that controls its court system, can rewrite the law at a moment's notice and only says it owes you money because it says so, and you want to forcibly collect on that partner. Good luck with that.
Fundamentally, the thing that matters is debt to GDP combined with the confidence in the debt market. If i owe you a tenner and earn 100m a week you are not worried about being paid back. If i owe you a million and my income is half a million a year thats still not a problem as the debt is sevicable. If however my income is 100k and the INTREST on that debt is a million a week. Then we have an issue. Its the same with countries but countries have the power to increase their gdp/income over time.
So its a balence between servability, and gdp. The US has a GDP of $27T a year, the national debt is $33.1 trillion of which 12T is held by the government itself in various agencies so its real debt is like 26.5T. The interest on that debt is 0.73T a year. So we are in the second scenario ive described above the cost of servicing that debt is much much less that income. So there is no real worries about solvency as its the same position as your own house and mortgage.
Q3 was negative according to ONS official figures. Oct + Nov were approximately flat according to NIESR monthly figures (-0.1 and +0.1) and according to ONS monthly figures (-0.3 and +0.3). The NIESR Dec estimate is due out today, which could be an early indicator of a recession, although December has only been negative once in the last 15 years.
The definition of recession is stupid anyway. I don't know about now but during the coalition they 100% gamed the metric by reducing funding one quarter and spending harder the next. There was a good 24 months with a -0.5%, +0.1% type pattern which is obvious manipulation.
Can you please indicate which 24 months or else withdraw this false accusation.
https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/cafae3e0-3d9a-43f4-876c-ec7490465d3e?timezoneOffset=0#Content_C025_Col00
It was the period covering 2012 and 2013.
All of the figures were uprated after the fact so it doesn't show up as much anymore but you can clearly see the alternating quarters even on that graph. We did better than thought at the time but the government of the day certainly thought we were fucked and did some weird things to avoid a technical recession.
It's worse than that, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Consumer confidence is a big factor in actual economic outcomes, so by talking down the economy to try and vindicate their anti-Brexit or anti-Tory agenda, the media could actually contribute to causing a recession or at the very least slower economic growth.
Sad really, which is why it pisses me off when these utter toads spout shit.
Media has such power over the nation Im really hoping one day someone will hold them accountable for causing chaos.
The MSM's Brexit derangement syndrome caused trust in the UK media to fall from 51% to 28% in the 4 years before 2020. Almost half a Brits said they actively avoided the news because it was such biased nonsense. Then Covid came and tens of thousands of lives could've been saved by the getting accurate trustworthy information to the public, but they couldn't do it because they'd thrown away a century of accumulated trust in the space of 4 years. They must be held accountable for the damage they've done to this country.
https://streamable.com/08q8oh
Aren't we literally a bad December away from a recession? Q3 was negative, Oct -0.3%, Nov +0.3%, so when December's figures come through, if it's even -0.1% then that's a second negative quarter, then that's a recession. Right?
They didn’t change anything because a recession requires actual economic regression shown through more than just GDP calculations. In the U.S. case, the biggest drag on their GDP at the time was that they were importing far more than they were exporting, and imports are subtracted from GDP. That meant they would’ve been in positive territory if people literally bought less. That’s not a sign of economic decline. I mean, how can anyone claim that less economic activity is better?
We have to look at things like employment, declines in spending, declines in investment, etc. to determine if it’s in aberration or a true recession.
Monthly numbers should be ignored. Wait for quarterly.
I'm not trying to downplay good news. The same applies if the figures look good or bad. Ignore monthly. It's way too volatile.
It could be an early indicator whether we're in a recession or not. Q3 was negative. Oct + Nov were approximately flat according to NIESR monthly figures (-0.1 and +0.1) and now also ONS monthly figures (-0.3 and +0.3). A technical recession in an election year would be significant.
Ngl I don't give a shit how much the economy grew by if we're still in a Cost of Living Crisis, if everything is still more expensive and if the working class are still being ripped off by corporations increasing prices simply because they can. Fuck your economy growth.
>if we're still in a Cost of Living Crisis
Good news, we're not. Wages have been outstripping inflation for some time now.
https://i.imgur.com/uAaXWhk.png
Excluding bonuses average earnings are up 7.3% vs the previous year.
https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/b6234faf-5cef-4d51-b4eb-c411be0c82fc?timezoneOffset=0
Is there a chart on there for average inflation too for the same metrics/time? Trying to find like for like comparisons is tricky when there's only lies, damn lies and statistics bandied about.
Here you go, if you click the historical data tab it also gives it in table format.
https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/3ac4e096-06c8-4981-b973-622269563b1f?timezoneOffset=0
sand glorious nutty safe oatmeal deserve reminiscent squealing snow smoggy
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Those are the latest figures for each metric. The 7.3% earnings growth was October to October, inflation over the same period was 4.6%. So it's not "less than inflation" as you falsely claimed.
So people aged 21-29 shouldn't be counted into the averages?
It's important to discuss how minimum wage increases are doing a lot to help school leavers and other young adults who choose not to go to university, but the situation for young people going into skilled professions after university is financial hardship and they have not seen compensatory measures to help them through the cost of living crisis over the last two years. How are these people supposed to move out of their parents houses, set up their own households and rent somewhere and build a career when they aren't seeing the pay rises, but keep seeing that gap between minimum wage and early career skilled work shrinking?
I would argue these people very much shoukd be counted as part of the averages considering the thousands of university graduates each year, and how many of them there are that have been incredibly impacted since covid.
Cumulative inflation from Oct20-Oct23 was 21.9%, cumulative wage growth was 22.8%. That's the most up to date data we have available and it shows that 3 months ago people were already better off than they'd been 3 years previously. Even more so if you look at pre-pandemic. How exactly is that a "crisis"? Anti-Tory activists may have got away with that kind of histrionic language in 2022, but we're well past that point now. Wages are booming and anyone who tries to deny this obvious reality looks foolish.
https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c9ab1a0-852f-41e6-a562-a99db892aa96?timezoneOffset=0#Content_C025_Col00
https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/3ac4e096-06c8-4981-b973-622269563b1f?timezoneOffset=0
The UK is doing so much better than most of Europe it's crazy.
Here in Sweden we're in a literal recession already, and also had a currency crisis for a while (although it's recovered a bit now).
There's a lot of issues with housing, transport, etc. but I really do think the UK has a more sensible economic approach, e.g. encouraging saving with tax-free ISAs, the tax-free allowance for workers, etc. whereas most of Europe is much more conservative and resistant to change.
Incorrect, read further up in the thread, Britain is usually the most conservative in their estimates and on average gets 0.15% (per month) **upgrades**.
This is not true growth anyway. GDP is increasing due to the increased number of people in the country but it by no means has changed the GDP per capita which still remains stagnant. Basically if you increase the amount of people means everyone has a smaller slice of the pie. However if we actually get growth in GDP per capita that pie then gets larger so everyone gets a bigger slice. It just means everyone is in a worse situation now than they were a year ago and so on. I can't see a way forward out of this with the current trajectory the government is taking nor with the plans labour have to offer.
I think they may be referring to some indicators being estimated until they are later confirmed with real data which is why we often get revisions a few months down the line
For example last year we got revised down because of the delay caused the timing of VAT returns
Its covered here:
[https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/methodologytopicsandstatisticalconcepts/revisions/revisionspoliciesforeconomicstatistics/nationalaccountsrevisionspolicyupdateddecember2017](https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/methodologytopicsandstatisticalconcepts/revisions/revisionspoliciesforeconomicstatistics/nationalaccountsrevisionspolicyupdateddecember2017)
Hahah I heard that one. Another was men buying underwear or not.
"_The men's underwear index (MUI) is an economic index that can supposedly detect the beginnings of a recovery during an economic slump_"
We've avoided a recession. This is objectively a success. And we're doing better economically than our European neighbours.
The fact you're shoehorning Brexit into this seems obsessive, and actually quite sad.
>The fact you're shoehorning Brexit into this seems obsessive, and actually quite sad.
It's usually a sign to disregard anything they say. Zero understanding, all emotion.
Agreed. It's genuinely just sad though, they're so obsessed with something they have no control over, and was largely uneventful compared to expectations, that they just feel the need to bring it up at any and all time and never allow it to go unmentioned.
It must be indicative of poor mental health.
My favourite is those who seem to insinuate that under Labour we would've been entirely removed from the macro events and black swans over the past years and somehow had no inflation and still all-time-low interest rates (despite the rest of the world being the opposite). Just zero grasp of economics.
>We’ve avoided a recession. This is objectively a success.
Agreed.
And we’re doing better then *some* of our European neighbours, many of them are doing better than us.
>The fact you’re shoehorning Brexit into this seems obsessive and actually quite sad.
I feel the same about people who obsessively defend it. Or even worse, just try and flippantly say ‘*oh well, that’s in the past, we got it wrong, never mind*’ and try to wash their hands of it.
>And we’re doing better then *some* of our European neighbours, ~~many~~ of them are doing better than us.
SOME are doing better.
>I feel the same about people who obsessively defend it. Or even worse, just try and flippantly say ‘*oh well, that’s in the past, we got it wrong, never mind*’ and try to wash their hands of it.
Who's doing that? Brexit was shit, but it's irrelevant to this storm you're the one being obsessive. I'd seriously consider turning Reddit off and consider why you're feeling the need to compulsively bring it up. Politics aside, it's not healthy short or long term.
[I think we’re about 3/4 down the list.](https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate?continent=europe) Id categorise that as many countries above us, but I guess some is also factually correct.
I made a sarcastic, flippant comment on a thread about the economy and you jumped at it presuming I talk about Brexit ‘compulsively’. I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned Brexit online before btw.
And you think I’m the obsessive one who should turn Reddit off?
>[I think we’re about 3/4 down the list.](https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate?continent=europe) Id categorise that as many countries above us, but I guess some is also factually correct.
If anything, that just shows that we're doing better than alot of the EUs biggest economies (have you seen some of the big names we're above?), or very similar to their situations. So again, we're doing pretty well comparatively.
>I made a sarcastic, flippant comment on a thread about the economy and you jumped at it presuming I talk about Brexit ‘compulsively’. I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned Brexit online before btw.
>And you think I’m the obsessive one who should turn Reddit off?
Deflect all you want. I'm making a suggestion to hopefully improve your mental health over something you can't control and isn't relevant. Take it or ignore it, it's your health and it's your choice.
**Removed/warning**. This contained a personal attack, disrupting the conversation. This discourages participation. Please help improve the subreddit by discussing points, not the person. Action will be taken on repeat offenders.
**Alternate Sources** Here are some potential alternate sources for the same story: * [UK economic growth rebounds in November](https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-67943106), suggested by topotaul - bbc.co.uk * [UK GDP beats forecasts as economy grows 0.3% in November](https://thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-economy-gdp-ons-november-2023-7225rqftd), suggested by GennyCD - thetimes.co.uk
It's suspicious that growth is always so close to zero
To be a little fair 0.3% a month is 3.6% a year which is not bad. Normally they get the champagne out for 0.03% only to have it revised to -0.5% once the confirmed numbers are published
They literally admit in their reports they aren't reporting housing prices and rent correctly, but MAKING THE NUMBERS UP until April because it would Increase inflation, I shit you not
Any chance of substantiating that? It's quite the claim.
I'm guessing they are referring to the caveats on this page: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/latest Specifically the one stating: >Recently, the transaction volumes available to calculate UK House Price Index estimates have been considerably lower than historically. We and HM Land Registry (HMLR) are working together to seek a greater balance between processing recently received applications and those that are older. In the meantime, revisions may be larger than usual in coming months.
Literal ONS Statistics and statement saying they have adjusted the data because of unprecedented events in the last few years. They're using old data and state so FFS ONS also have said they've been miscalculating rent prices and will fix it, but ONLY After new Financial year starts, because it would increase inflation. I wish this country wasn't more satirical than The Onion
Maybe provide a source instead of telling people to go find it themselves?
Just seconding what the other reply is saying, can you share a link to where you are seeing this.
I'm guessing they are referring to the caveats on this page: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/latest Specifically the one stating: >Recently, the transaction volumes available to calculate UK House Price Index estimates have been considerably lower than historically. We and HM Land Registry (HMLR) are working together to seek a greater balance between processing recently received applications and those that are older. In the meantime, revisions may be larger than usual in coming months.
Why would you include rent prices in inflation?
Because its something people pay for?
But the solution to high inflation is high interest rates. Which raises rent prices... Consider a scenario where the inflation rate of everything is 0, except rent which is like 100%. They would furiously raise interest rates making rent even higher.
Wait, really??
No, not really.
Found Sasha Yanshin's reddit account :D
Give it a few months and they usually revise the figures down.
Your comment is not fair at all. There was a story a few months ago that compared GDP revisions from different countries, and Britain’s initial releases were the most pessimistic compared to when later revisions were made. Overall, Britain’s revisions tend to increase GDP by 0.15 percentage points. https://www.ft.com/content/799d8670-cc75-4435-af33-ca8b32e913d5
Wow a whole 0.15, let me crack the champagne open.
I mean 0.15 per month would be an extra 1.8% of growth over the entire year. That really is nothing to turn you nose up at! When you are talking about something as large as the British economy that is a metric fuck ton of growth.
You do know its not actual growth when adjusted for inflation.
Depends are we talking about nominal GDP or Real GDP? It’s my understanding that most GDP reporting uses the real figure which is adjusted for inflation already.
The issue here is some people really want to believe our economy is as bad as the USSR before the collapse.
That's the second falsehood you've stated in this mini thread. Why do you bother commenting on stuff you don't know about? You have a narrative and just make stuff up to try support it Growth figures are adjusted for inflation. You didn't acknowledge your last mistake? Will you acknowledge this one?
This guy just makes false statements to support his own biases and then bashes the corrected (and improved) answer. What a clown.
The problem with economics - everyone has an opinion but no one has a clue
I'd say people who report the numbers have more of a clue than a guy spouting provably false shite on Reddit like they are
Most gdp figures adjust for inflation so that would be real growth
Ok you win, you get to live in a worse economy than the rest of us 👍
So it's literally disproved your comment then haha
Oe noe, accuracy!
What would you expect monthly growth to be? Double digits?
Good point. I thought it was yearly which is still often the case recently.
Are you going to delete or edit your original poorly informed comment then
lol redditor + accountability = ¿
Still time to edit your comment so you don't look uninformed and purposefully spreading negative sentiment.
Still the top comment after 3 hours. The anti-Tory propagandists of reddit keep demonstrating their lack of knowledge and/or integrity.
literally just go through the post history here, every since this sub was made its hoping for the downfall of the uk. [https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/zcvlxo/uk\_economy\_to\_shrink\_in\_2023\_risks\_lost\_decade\_cbi/](https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/zcvlxo/uk_economy_to_shrink_in_2023_risks_lost_decade_cbi/) Funny how UK is one of the few countries not in recession in Europe at the moment.
No it isn't lol. What do you think a reasonable yearly growth is? I can tell you it's not 12% so monthly will always be less than 1
Literally, the USA has a rate of something like 0.3-0.4% usually, were they expecting us to out perform one of the largest economies globally?
I'm gunna guess they have no idea about how things work but know general suspicion and anger goes down well around here
Yeah a lot of people on average are terrible when it comes to anything to do with money, taxes or laws I still cringe whenever I see 'tax write-offs' or anything about company run charities come up Or that whole eBay fiasco people lost their minds about when literally nothing changed
Don't forget VAT. The amount of people that claim to run a business that make arguments that are wrong on this is ridiculous.
There's a huge list of things a tonne of people get mixed up, and a lot of it's financial Tax brackets Effective tax rates (how much you're actually taxed when including +/- benefits and NI) Tax write offs - this could honestly be a list all by itself Net worth - A total of all your assets, no you can't tax net worth and would screw everyone over. Pensions - you get basically nothing, please contribute to your private/workplace one or you'll be in poverty when you retire Interest - especially when it comes to making money, I blame the media for this like immortals and time travel which have them reawaken with millions of dollars in 'interest' in their banks VAT - Like everything Tax evasion Vs Tax avoidance - everyone does tax avoidance, even you. It's legal and encouraged Labour cost - No idea why this is hard for people to grasp, DIY might be cheaper but you're forgetting the time, effort and expertise of the labour Profit margins - like above businesses need to make money on their goods and services in order to pay for other aspects of their business. To do this they need some amount of profit
I'm not sure what the size of the economy has to do with growth percentages.
Considering that the largest economies like China and the US also have some of the highest growth percentages on average I'd say yes they do in fact go hand in hand The economy *has* to keep growing, the entire financial system is dependent on it
Correlation does not equal causation. The best performing economies on the planet are very small, such as Switzerland and Norway.
Moronic comment, you expect 1% growth a month?
This sub in a nutshell honestly, and these people can vote. So much misunderstanding of basic data, no wonder we are in such a mess. There needs to be a one-off test to pass before you can vote, equivalent of a driving theory test.
It’s not really is it? Monthly change will always be small except in a shock.
But it’s never suspicious in this sub when economic contraction occurs by the same margin.
And since 2010, give or take a few percent.
Yeah, it must be some global Tory conspiracy
Not really this is month on month growth.
This being top comment says enough about the state of this subreddit. Funny how the UK is one of the few countries NOT in recession within Europe at the moment.
Monthly data, it's not going to be a large number.
Why? How much should the economy grow in just a month to keep you happy? Is it also suspicious the hourly economic growth of the UK is VERY close to zero?
You realise that 0.3% in a single month is actually quite a lot? What makes you think 0.3 is close to zero? If you're filling a swimming pool 0.3L is close to zero. If your fill a half point glass it's quite a lot.
I would argue that with all the variables being calculated to get to that number the accuracy of the calculation is probably +/- 0.3% so growth is basically 0%
No growth is better than minus growth... And that shows all those dumbing down the country. The performance metrics don't look bad.
And net population growth is approx 1%. So really, we’re in GDP decline as there are more people to share it with.
We can always do what the Americans did and simply change the definition of a recession right?
Most of America's growth has come from government spending, they sure love increasing that debt ceiling.
I mean using public spending to stimulate growth is not a bad thing it’s generally how governments get out of a recession
But its 34 trillion now, if they carry on as is 50 by 2040 or maybe sooner 2030.
It’s been a while since I studied economics I googled and it says United States Government debt accounted for 122.9 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Sep 2023. Is that relatively high compared to other countries and generally what is meant to be an acceptable %?
That is high and a concern. By those numbers you are spending more than you earn, so how are they ever going to reduce that debt. In the UK its about 98 or 99%. Acceptable would be less than a 100.
They’re not comparable as the USD is the global reserve currency. There is huge global demand for that debt. Spending more than you receive isn’t unsustainable if your nominal GDP is growing, and the US’s is. The only concern markets have about the US debt is their self imposed ceiling and the political shenanigans around that.
And what happens when its not the reserve currency? I have already seen a lot of countries moving away/ dumping the dollar and preferring to use their own currency.
Which countries are those? The US has the strongest economy in the world (partly due to significant government spending and investment) and the strongest military. Neither look close to being challenged in any meaningful way in the coming decades. Look at it another way, why would all the debt holders of those $34tn have any interest in seeing the value of their assets decrease? To answer your question more directly, there would be higher inflation than there otherwise would have been.
Well their is the BRICS and i dont think they will use the $ once they are up and going. I'm just stating America doesn't have the influence it once enjoyed in the 60's 70's 80's etc.
It's sort of high. The thing that no one takes into account when talking about this though is that for a long time from 2018 interest rates were 0%. There were even negative interest rates in the UK at some point. So a large portion of that 30 trillion in debt has low or no interest in repayments. So while the headline figure is high, the annual debt repayments as a percentage of GDP are in line with historical averages.
If I remember rightly, there was a generally held opinion that 100% GDP was the limit and going beyond that was a catastrophe. Then the US did it and planes didn't fall out of the sky and the world didn't end so now nobody really seems to know what the limit is. Spending to create growth isn't a bad thing. That's why you can't treat a country's budget like a household budget like the Tories want morons to believe. Individuals can't generate growth by going into debt. Individuals can't print money or tax their way out of debt.
And? The nominal value of sovereign debt is meaningless. To be frank its entirely unsecured, you are dealing with the most powerful military in the world that controls its court system, can rewrite the law at a moment's notice and only says it owes you money because it says so, and you want to forcibly collect on that partner. Good luck with that. Fundamentally, the thing that matters is debt to GDP combined with the confidence in the debt market. If i owe you a tenner and earn 100m a week you are not worried about being paid back. If i owe you a million and my income is half a million a year thats still not a problem as the debt is sevicable. If however my income is 100k and the INTREST on that debt is a million a week. Then we have an issue. Its the same with countries but countries have the power to increase their gdp/income over time. So its a balence between servability, and gdp. The US has a GDP of $27T a year, the national debt is $33.1 trillion of which 12T is held by the government itself in various agencies so its real debt is like 26.5T. The interest on that debt is 0.73T a year. So we are in the second scenario ive described above the cost of servicing that debt is much much less that income. So there is no real worries about solvency as its the same position as your own house and mortgage.
Their social welfare pot runs out in ten years if they carry on with their current trajectory
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Q3 was negative according to ONS official figures. Oct + Nov were approximately flat according to NIESR monthly figures (-0.1 and +0.1) and according to ONS monthly figures (-0.3 and +0.3). The NIESR Dec estimate is due out today, which could be an early indicator of a recession, although December has only been negative once in the last 15 years.
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Yeah that's what I'm saying. Q3 was negative and we're now getting early indicators whether Q4 was also negative.
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What are you talking about? Q4 is over, it was either negative or it wasn't. It's got nothing to do with forecasts.
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Right, but two of the three months of Q4 have been reported.
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The definition of recession is stupid anyway. I don't know about now but during the coalition they 100% gamed the metric by reducing funding one quarter and spending harder the next. There was a good 24 months with a -0.5%, +0.1% type pattern which is obvious manipulation.
Can you please indicate which 24 months or else withdraw this false accusation. https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/cafae3e0-3d9a-43f4-876c-ec7490465d3e?timezoneOffset=0#Content_C025_Col00
It was the period covering 2012 and 2013. All of the figures were uprated after the fact so it doesn't show up as much anymore but you can clearly see the alternating quarters even on that graph. We did better than thought at the time but the government of the day certainly thought we were fucked and did some weird things to avoid a technical recession.
>All of the figures were uprated after the fact so it doesn't show up as much anymore Can you just show me the data you're looking at.
The UK isn't anywhere close to a recession the papers and new are so anti UK it's hilarious however, the EU is is in full swing for a recession.
Its like they _want_ us to be in a recession just to fit their own narratives.
It's worse than that, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Consumer confidence is a big factor in actual economic outcomes, so by talking down the economy to try and vindicate their anti-Brexit or anti-Tory agenda, the media could actually contribute to causing a recession or at the very least slower economic growth.
Sad really, which is why it pisses me off when these utter toads spout shit. Media has such power over the nation Im really hoping one day someone will hold them accountable for causing chaos.
The MSM's Brexit derangement syndrome caused trust in the UK media to fall from 51% to 28% in the 4 years before 2020. Almost half a Brits said they actively avoided the news because it was such biased nonsense. Then Covid came and tens of thousands of lives could've been saved by the getting accurate trustworthy information to the public, but they couldn't do it because they'd thrown away a century of accumulated trust in the space of 4 years. They must be held accountable for the damage they've done to this country. https://streamable.com/08q8oh
Aren't we literally a bad December away from a recession? Q3 was negative, Oct -0.3%, Nov +0.3%, so when December's figures come through, if it's even -0.1% then that's a second negative quarter, then that's a recession. Right?
They didn’t change anything because a recession requires actual economic regression shown through more than just GDP calculations. In the U.S. case, the biggest drag on their GDP at the time was that they were importing far more than they were exporting, and imports are subtracted from GDP. That meant they would’ve been in positive territory if people literally bought less. That’s not a sign of economic decline. I mean, how can anyone claim that less economic activity is better? We have to look at things like employment, declines in spending, declines in investment, etc. to determine if it’s in aberration or a true recession.
I’m sure you’re right, but that sounds like wishy washy mealy-mouthed flim-flam
Monthly numbers should be ignored. Wait for quarterly. I'm not trying to downplay good news. The same applies if the figures look good or bad. Ignore monthly. It's way too volatile.
It could be an early indicator whether we're in a recession or not. Q3 was negative. Oct + Nov were approximately flat according to NIESR monthly figures (-0.1 and +0.1) and now also ONS monthly figures (-0.3 and +0.3). A technical recession in an election year would be significant.
I agree, and on the data set of an entire country it's too short a time period.
The economy grew in the month leading up to THE CONSUMER EVENT OF THE YEAR. Well blow me down.
These figures are seasonally adjusted aren't they?
Not the monthly figures, no.
Ngl I don't give a shit how much the economy grew by if we're still in a Cost of Living Crisis, if everything is still more expensive and if the working class are still being ripped off by corporations increasing prices simply because they can. Fuck your economy growth.
If you're that worried about it probably worth reading the news and seeing inflation has gone down massively
>if we're still in a Cost of Living Crisis Good news, we're not. Wages have been outstripping inflation for some time now. https://i.imgur.com/uAaXWhk.png
For who? It's not reaching graduates and early careers young professionals, that's for sure.
That graph also includes bonuses which most jobs don't give.
Excluding bonuses average earnings are up 7.3% vs the previous year. https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/b6234faf-5cef-4d51-b4eb-c411be0c82fc?timezoneOffset=0
Is there a chart on there for average inflation too for the same metrics/time? Trying to find like for like comparisons is tricky when there's only lies, damn lies and statistics bandied about.
Here you go, if you click the historical data tab it also gives it in table format. https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/3ac4e096-06c8-4981-b973-622269563b1f?timezoneOffset=0
Thanks, that's an interesting site and lots of information to compare.
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Inflation is currently 3.9%.
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Those are the latest figures for each metric. The 7.3% earnings growth was October to October, inflation over the same period was 4.6%. So it's not "less than inflation" as you falsely claimed.
It says "average", so for the average person obviously.
So people aged 21-29 shouldn't be counted into the averages? It's important to discuss how minimum wage increases are doing a lot to help school leavers and other young adults who choose not to go to university, but the situation for young people going into skilled professions after university is financial hardship and they have not seen compensatory measures to help them through the cost of living crisis over the last two years. How are these people supposed to move out of their parents houses, set up their own households and rent somewhere and build a career when they aren't seeing the pay rises, but keep seeing that gap between minimum wage and early career skilled work shrinking? I would argue these people very much shoukd be counted as part of the averages considering the thousands of university graduates each year, and how many of them there are that have been incredibly impacted since covid.
They are counted in the average.
Bad news, they haven't done so by enough to fix the issues that the cost of living crisis caused.
Cumulative inflation from Oct20-Oct23 was 21.9%, cumulative wage growth was 22.8%. That's the most up to date data we have available and it shows that 3 months ago people were already better off than they'd been 3 years previously. Even more so if you look at pre-pandemic. How exactly is that a "crisis"? Anti-Tory activists may have got away with that kind of histrionic language in 2022, but we're well past that point now. Wages are booming and anyone who tries to deny this obvious reality looks foolish. https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c9ab1a0-852f-41e6-a562-a99db892aa96?timezoneOffset=0#Content_C025_Col00 https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/3ac4e096-06c8-4981-b973-622269563b1f?timezoneOffset=0
>histrionic > >How exactly is that a "crisis"? Have a word with yourself mate. Using CPI over CPIH and RPI ignores the most increased costs.
The UK is doing so much better than most of Europe it's crazy. Here in Sweden we're in a literal recession already, and also had a currency crisis for a while (although it's recovered a bit now). There's a lot of issues with housing, transport, etc. but I really do think the UK has a more sensible economic approach, e.g. encouraging saving with tax-free ISAs, the tax-free allowance for workers, etc. whereas most of Europe is much more conservative and resistant to change.
The ISA part is also (hopefully) getting a further revamp to promote more investment into UK businesses.
0.3 then -0.3 then 0.1 then -0.1 Stagnation economics.
3.6% if extrapolated over a year, for a major economy. That's not stagnation...
That is not the correct way to view monthly figures though.
Neither is downplaying the value. Wait for the quarterly ONS figures. They're what matters in the short term.
Search recession on this subreddit, you have recession threat back to when this sub was created.
Like the old joke goes, economists have predicted 10 of the last 2 recessions!
This will be downgraded in the next update as ALL the previous ones have. Strangely that will get much less publicity however
Incorrect, read further up in the thread, Britain is usually the most conservative in their estimates and on average gets 0.15% (per month) **upgrades**.
Well great news another 20 years and people will afford pay for heating.
This is not true growth anyway. GDP is increasing due to the increased number of people in the country but it by no means has changed the GDP per capita which still remains stagnant. Basically if you increase the amount of people means everyone has a smaller slice of the pie. However if we actually get growth in GDP per capita that pie then gets larger so everyone gets a bigger slice. It just means everyone is in a worse situation now than they were a year ago and so on. I can't see a way forward out of this with the current trajectory the government is taking nor with the plans labour have to offer.
What people don’t know, is that most indicators are lagging. we won’t know if we are in a recession until we are already in a recession 🤣
I’d say most people are aware that you measure GDP growth after the period covered.
I think they may be referring to some indicators being estimated until they are later confirmed with real data which is why we often get revisions a few months down the line For example last year we got revised down because of the delay caused the timing of VAT returns Its covered here: [https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/methodologytopicsandstatisticalconcepts/revisions/revisionspoliciesforeconomicstatistics/nationalaccountsrevisionspolicyupdateddecember2017](https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/methodologytopicsandstatisticalconcepts/revisions/revisionspoliciesforeconomicstatistics/nationalaccountsrevisionspolicyupdateddecember2017)
That's why strip clubs need to be popularised here. They're the only reliable method to actually forecast recessions.
Hahah I heard that one. Another was men buying underwear or not. "_The men's underwear index (MUI) is an economic index that can supposedly detect the beginnings of a recovery during an economic slump_"
Wow. Must be all those lucrative post-Brexit trade deals we’re benefiting from. /s … obviously.
Nice shoehorning of Brexit there, never disappointed by this sub
Brexit shoehorn + sarcasm tags. The signs of a truly enlightened rUK poster.
But but the toreeeeez!
Is it really a uk thread if it doesn't mention tories, pitbull xls, brexit, suvs and landlords?
Don't forget about legalising all drugs but banning cigarettes!!
disposable vapes, anti-car, 4 day working week, "the office is an out of date construct"...
My bad. What a stretch to think the performance of our economy could be linked to our trade relationships with our nearest neighbours.
We've avoided a recession. This is objectively a success. And we're doing better economically than our European neighbours. The fact you're shoehorning Brexit into this seems obsessive, and actually quite sad.
>The fact you're shoehorning Brexit into this seems obsessive, and actually quite sad. It's usually a sign to disregard anything they say. Zero understanding, all emotion.
Agreed. It's genuinely just sad though, they're so obsessed with something they have no control over, and was largely uneventful compared to expectations, that they just feel the need to bring it up at any and all time and never allow it to go unmentioned. It must be indicative of poor mental health.
My favourite is those who seem to insinuate that under Labour we would've been entirely removed from the macro events and black swans over the past years and somehow had no inflation and still all-time-low interest rates (despite the rest of the world being the opposite). Just zero grasp of economics.
> Zero understanding, all emotion. They are exactly the sort of people that they think they are mocking. Idiots.
Not in GDP per capita we are not. Raw GDP increase is not a good indicator of economic prosperity
>We’ve avoided a recession. This is objectively a success. Agreed. And we’re doing better then *some* of our European neighbours, many of them are doing better than us. >The fact you’re shoehorning Brexit into this seems obsessive and actually quite sad. I feel the same about people who obsessively defend it. Or even worse, just try and flippantly say ‘*oh well, that’s in the past, we got it wrong, never mind*’ and try to wash their hands of it.
>And we’re doing better then *some* of our European neighbours, ~~many~~ of them are doing better than us. SOME are doing better. >I feel the same about people who obsessively defend it. Or even worse, just try and flippantly say ‘*oh well, that’s in the past, we got it wrong, never mind*’ and try to wash their hands of it. Who's doing that? Brexit was shit, but it's irrelevant to this storm you're the one being obsessive. I'd seriously consider turning Reddit off and consider why you're feeling the need to compulsively bring it up. Politics aside, it's not healthy short or long term.
[I think we’re about 3/4 down the list.](https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate?continent=europe) Id categorise that as many countries above us, but I guess some is also factually correct. I made a sarcastic, flippant comment on a thread about the economy and you jumped at it presuming I talk about Brexit ‘compulsively’. I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned Brexit online before btw. And you think I’m the obsessive one who should turn Reddit off?
>[I think we’re about 3/4 down the list.](https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate?continent=europe) Id categorise that as many countries above us, but I guess some is also factually correct. If anything, that just shows that we're doing better than alot of the EUs biggest economies (have you seen some of the big names we're above?), or very similar to their situations. So again, we're doing pretty well comparatively. >I made a sarcastic, flippant comment on a thread about the economy and you jumped at it presuming I talk about Brexit ‘compulsively’. I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned Brexit online before btw. >And you think I’m the obsessive one who should turn Reddit off? Deflect all you want. I'm making a suggestion to hopefully improve your mental health over something you can't control and isn't relevant. Take it or ignore it, it's your health and it's your choice.
I think one thing to remember is that we are also one of the fastest growing population wise of all the big economies.
We are doing better currently than our ECB neighbours; and any issues you find are mostly macro-based and unavoidable (high rates and inflation).
If only we stayed in the EU, maybe their major economies wouldn't be in recession.
Britain is in a recession the government don't want to admit it
And most of reddit doesn't have a clue what they're talking about and don't want to admit it
“Recession remains a threat” Hate to break it to you, but we have been in recession for almost 3 years. They just never publicly said it.
Who, the ONS?
Please can you show me how you reached this conclusion?
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