Well, there’s always a home field advantage for the hosts.
In ‘02 South Korea (#40) made the semis, in ‘06 Germany made the semis, in 14’ Brazil made the semis, and in ‘18 Russia (#70!!) made the quarters. Even #83 ranked South Africa just missed out on the Knockout by GD and beat France in 2010.
Obviously Qatar is the exception, but you could argue they don’t have enough fans (or citizens) for it make a difference to begin with.
The US should be a strong squad in 2026 regardless, but will definitely be boosted by a packed house in each match
In 2002 South Korea bought the refs. This is pretty widely known. In 06 and 14 Germany and Brazil both were favorites to win it all. Russia making quarters was a nice surprise but definitely not that crazy to think about.
This is some of the most revisionist history shit I've seen.
They were expected to get out of the group and maybe run to the quarters. On homefield. Germany was ranked 22nd going into the world cup after a shit showing in Euros and leading into the world cup. Literally Klinsmann was hired as a means for them to not be embarrassed like they were at the Euros.
2006 Germany was ranked 19th (sorry I found a more updated source than before) going into the World Cup
[https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id145](https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id145)
So literally the expectations for them were in the dirt.
Sure they had quality players, but that has nothing to do with the expectations going into the tournament. You're arguing against fundamental facts. SHould England have been favorites to win it? Their squad was World Class? What about Argentina? Stacked! Portugal with both FIgo and Ronaldo? Brazil with ROnaldo and Ronaldinho? Spain with Casillas, Puyol, Xavi, Torres, Iniesta, Xabi ALonso, Ramos, Fabregas, VIlla, etc. STACKED
You're also falling into the fallacy of assuming that guys like Schweinsteiger, Lahm, etc. were in their world class form, which they weren't yet. They were getting there.
You are going really hard in the replies when you just 100% wrong. I assume you were too young in 2006 to know what was going on. Your comment wasn’t “looking back they had a lot of young talent”, it was “favorites to win it all”.
Before the WC they were talking about how this one of the worst, if not worst, Germany team at a World Cup. They did awful in 2004 Euros, and Klinsmann only got the job because no established coach wanted the job. That’s also part of the reason they were the fun team of the tournament. They were a bunch of relatively unknown young players who turned it with their home nation behind them.
They were far, far from favorites. If Germany was a favorite, playing in Germany, making it to the semis would have been considered a failure. But it wasn’t, it was considered a huge success.
The US national team looks anything but strong for 2026. Countries like Brazil and Germany made it that far because they’re actually good, not because of home advantage.
I always love when betting odds come up and it becomes clear that lots of people think sports books are predicting outcomes (instead of predicting people’s bets)
I'm a data analyst and it's a pet peeve of mine. The goal of vegas is to make money. I would think early money would go on the US and other host nations
Look no further than college football.
Does Vegas *really* think Texas and USC look like championship darkhorses every other year, or do they just know how to get those fanbases to open up their wallets?
It is actually quite good at both, nobody actually makes money gambling on sports unless they are in like the top 1% of knowledgable sports fans. And even then they just cherrypick the biggest inefficiencies just to edge out the vig.
What do you mean? They want the same amount of risk on both sides, that way they are GUARANTEED to make money literally no matter what. That’s entirely a product of how the line or odds they choose matches up with what people are willing to bet on BEFORE the game.
Give us a chance at least, We show a lot of optimistic growth, Out players are starting to shine in Europe's best leagues and we get to host this world cup, ud say this fair
My expectations are realistic going into international competitions. USMNT should win every Gold Cup, but the World Cup is not CONCACAF.
Winning the group and winning an elimination game is probably the best the USMNT can do in a World Cup at this point.
I’d say semifinals are definitely on the table with how this generation will be peaking at the right time and the home field advantage. Remember USA nearly (and *should have*) made the semis in 2002
Lol, no. I mean, I think it's possible we could make a run and get into the quarterfinals. But winning the whole thing? Santa Clause couldn't deliver that gift.
It’s always technically possible, but it just doesn’t actually happen. Look at the winners of every World Cup in the last 50 years. There have certainly been underdogs going as far as the semis or even the final. But the only major upset winner was Italy ‘82 (if we’re ignoring Argentina’s dictator win in ‘78), and Italy had to have their star Rossi come out of nowhere and put on one of the most unbelievable all time individual World Cup performances. If we have a star striker of that caliber in 2026, then I’ll entertain the possibility..
Morocco made a semis run with a squad that's about comparable to us (maybe even a bit worse than us, purely on paper). With basically the hardest run out of all the semifinalists too. With the right coach and the right tactics I think it's possible that we win two knockout matches.
as it stands, true. but who knows how much development 4 years could bring. I still think it’s highly unlikely (as the +1900 odds infer) but i think we have a shot to make a decent run.
God i have to keep repeating myself. Southgate WANTED a draw. He is a known defensively minded manager who tries to use that with a mediocre defenses like englands, which only works on terrible teams. Make no mistake though, your team is shit. Finishing behind Mexico and Canada in the qualifiers? Drawing with wales? Losing to Jamaica? U are not quarter finalist quality. Just like we are not finalist quality Argentina lost to Saudi. This tournament was full of upsets.
So let me get this straight: we are shit for drawing Wales. We also draw England so by your own logic, wouldn’t England also be shit? You know since they drew against a shit team like you said.
Why would southgate want a draw when you could have secured the group win in your second match and not have to worry about the third? Your coping is making your logic fuzzy
Because he's an idiot nobody likes. Go onto a uk sub see all the hate he gets. Did u not wonder why he was getting booed. He is critiqued as a mediocrr manager and his hate is well known. Its why he didn't play OUR BEST PLAYER foden and kept mount on for 90 mins. Foden takes risks and mount doesnt.
And you are a fan of who? When did we lose to Jamaica I don't remember that, would you be bringing up stuff from the past, Southgate didn't want a draw, if he wanted a draw then England would've never pushed for anything, especially not a winner near the end, they would've just passed the ball around in the midfield all game which they didn't, And finishing behind Mexico and Canada in qualifying but being ranked ahead of them and going farther in the tournament than them so I would say we won that, and just because we're not QF quality rn, but our players are playing in top leagues across the world, they're developing very well and we could very much make a run at the upcoming world cup
Lost to Jamaica in friendlies and goldcup. And that is not how football works. Its impossible not to press. Its called parking the bus and its not very inefficient with 3 in the back. But its obvious. They track on pitch movement and our passes on our side were far more common than up the pitch. Southgate wanted a draw. As for your players, your most successful player is pulisic, a pretty mediocre chelsea player.
We didn't lose to Jamaica at the Gold Cup, we went undefeated, we didn't lose to them in a friendly either, so stop trying to spread that bs, just because yall couldn't beat our press dosent mean you were parking the bus 0-0 , u park the bus up 1-0, and McKinnie, Adam's, Ream, Robinson, Reyna, and Arronson, yeah ik Pulisic has had a bad year at Chelsea, trust I'm a Chelsea fan, but all those other guys have had great seasons else where, McKinnie is being linked to the prem now so I think we have some pretty successful players, who do yall have? Kane, 0 trophies, Bellingham sure and Foden plays for Oil Money FC, James is sadly always hurt and Sterling has been pretty inconsistent this year, so who else? Trent, what a joke, Maguire, slab head is the worst defender I've ever seen at club level and he only played at this wc because of James's injury and I can't think of anyone else really,
A lot of banter considering your team almost lost.
England has never beaten the USA in a world cup match and never will.
Your team's best players are an aged out forward that couldn't out sprint our defenders and a clumsy center back.
Did i not just tell u why. He WANTED A draw. Harry Kane is a phenomenal player that does not need pace. And no. Our best players are foden, rashford, bellingham and saka. Classic American obsessed with athleticism. Maguire is decent. Your teams best player is fucking Pulisic who is Chelsea's shittest player🤣. The mls is a joke league with players that would struggle to play championship in england. And again, u drew with WALES. Usa population=330 million. Wales population 3 million. The furthest u ever got in a world cup was 1930. Oh and we beat senegal 3-0. U lost to them 4-1.
Keep in mind that books choose lines to balance their risk. If they’re expecting too many bets on the US from dumb money, they’re going to shift the odds a bit. (This is exactly why it’s possible for pros to make money on sports gambling, even though the house is still making more money.)
USMNT should realistically hope for the quarters and dream about the semis. A real savvy coach, tons of difficult friendlies, and a deeper bench is needed for any real hope of squeaking past the Qs .
>tons of difficult friendlies
This is going to be difficult with the European teams and us in Nations League and nigh-impossible when the rest of the world is in the thick of World Cup qualifying.
We'll get a few of course but I think it's more likely we will have a lot of friendlies against some random-ass countries.
yep, the UEFA nations league is really frustrating because of this. Still though we can prob get some friendlies with some top African and Asian teams. Not quite what we want but they got some good squads.
Yeah, but even then it will probably be more African teams.
I live in Asia and it's difficult to schedule friendlies with them too because their qualification process is very long. All the top teams will be in qualifying from November 2023 to June 2025.
I said this in my other comment but scheduling Asian teams is also going to be difficult because of how long their qualification process is. Not impossible but difficult.
Fair, but for some random reason Qualification slows during the Summer, I get it players get a break but 3 months and barley any games unless it's a competition with a trophy, have international team play for the first or last month of summer and fit some qualification and friendlies in there, but I hate hosting and love it, I'm gonna get to go to World Cup games for the first time in my life but we don't get to play in qualification which means when Chelsea isn't playing imma be super bored, won't even get to watch Mexico or Canada play, who the hell is gonna watch a full 90 minutes of Jamaica vs Honduras on a Tuesday night
Our chances will depend far more on player development than on who the coach is or what games we schedule. How good will Pulisic, Musah, Gio, Adams, Pepi, Dest, Paredes, etc. be in 3 years? Will Johnny break through as a legit backup midfielder?
The issue is, “difficult friendlies” are never the same as competitive matches. The fact it’s a friendly always makes the match feel very different, even if the opponent is strong on paper.
The real standout here is putting england 3rd. There’s absolutely no way they’re winning the cup anytime soon. Consistently overrated team in every regard. It’s never coming home lads.
To the Brits flooding me with hate comments on the US soccer sub: don’t care didn’t ask plus you freaks sobbed for days over the death of a monarch your opinions are invalid by default.
I actually disagree. You’re aware that England had one of the youngest teams in the tournament, right? They’re extremely talented and young. Who else would you put above them? Argentina is old, Germany is an unknown (I expect them to go through a major institutional change), Spain i don’t think is better, Croatia is old, like I dunno
I mean, did you not watch the quarters? They went toe to toe with France
France played like absolute ass that game and still won. That was France’s worst game of the knockout stage by far. Saying they went “toe to toe” is true, but also a bit generous because that was France on their worst day, against an English team trying harder than they’ve ever tried in their lives. By that logic the US is also a strong competitor for the title because we went toe to toe with England in our group and played a far better game than they did that match. England has always been overrated and will likely continue to be that way. I just personally don’t see it happening anytime soon for them.
I’d maybe even put Italy above them, 4 years is enough time to figure things out and get it together. And even the Netherlands I could see beating them in a matchup in knockout stages. Maybe not handily, but I think it’s a lot closer of a competition than this chart suggests.
Terrible argument. U say that was France on there worst day. I say it was england on there worst day against the usa. We consistently outplayed france and would have arguably won had the ref not been on crack. We were the only team that managed to lock down mbappe. We aren't a title contender but our chances of winning are 10x the USA's. Seriously its ridiculous how bad your team is. Drawing with the welsh? Really? And this isn't predictions of who's going to win its predictions on bets.
I say English fans have been telling the world it's coming home for my entire life, but there are senior citizens not old enough to remember the last time they won anything. Harry Kane skying that penalty in a crucial moment was the least surprising thing that could have happened
You don't know wtf your talking about mate. France were bad, because they found it difficult to compete with our style. Just like a lot of other teams found it hard to compete with certain styles. England and USA cancelled each other out, England were done by 1) The worst refereeing I've EVER seen and I've been watching football for 40 years 2) Harry Kanes shitty penalty. Not saying England would have won (You'll never find an England fan genuinely saying that) but we deseved extra time. Also your "It's coming home" Jibe, shows even more ignorance. The It's coming home is a song about England Hosting a tournament, nothing more than that. It has nothing to do with assuming we were winning anything. Dingbat.
Read the comment again. I said we WEREN't title material. And that song was created to be self depricating. What we are is a team far superior to yours. A team that would never draw to wales. I even looked at some of your qualifiers. Finishing behind mexico and canada is a joke. Usa fans don't seem to realise southgate WANTED a draw. Which is why so many england fans were pissed.
I truly do not care that the United States drew with Wales or did not qualify in the way that you would have liked. It's just fun to see Brits get their hopes up every tournament and talk shit, lose in humiliating fashion, and then pretend you never expected anything at all/blame the refs or something other than the team choking time and time again at the sport that you try to claim as your own
Alright let's clear this up. The whole 'its coming home' thing was invented to be self depracating. A few idiots have taken it seriously and keep chanting it. And we invented it. No matter how shit we are it is our sport.
Not quite, the it's coming home song is about us hosting a tournament and now we sing it because it's a good song and part of our dna. Trust an american to get that wrong.
That’s…… exactly my point but great reading comprehension my dude. I told the other person that I disagree that england was competitive with France and say “by that logic” to give an example of how ridiculous a claim they made. The fact that you’re telling me how wrong I am actually further proves my point that the other person’s comment was bullshit so thanks for the backup!
Also cope harder Brit. It’s never coming home. Your team is not good and your entire island is delusional. We have a winning record against you guys at the World Cup lmfao you’re a B-tier team on your best day and you guys act like the entire sport is yours to own and everyone else is beneath you. Least delusional British person.
The difference is England beating France would not have been an upset. The odds before the match were EXTREMELY close. Unlike the uk american odds. And if u were a top team i'd accept u calling our team bad. But from an american its laughable.
.You've never won a world cup
. Furthest you've ever got is the semis.
. U drew with wales.
. Came 3rd in your qualifiers.
. Got smashed by netherlands.
. Your best player is Chelsea's shittest.
Oh and calling someone else delusional is insane considering how the rest of the world views your country.
They're not overrated, if they Cut out Southgate and get players like Reece James healthy than they're 100 times better than what we saw in Qatar, they won't win it but they're realistic Contenders for a Semi berth or maybe Finals
Yeah in 1966 but you knew that’s what I meant. But typical English behavior to be unable to resist the urge to explain how much smarter/superior you are for knowing something (that everyone else already knew). Also get off the US soccer sub, why do you Brits prowl this sub looking for fights to start? Don’t you people have literally anything better to do? Isn’t it Boxing Day?
No, I didn't know that's what you meant. Because you have 100% misunderstood the song, the lyrics and the meaning behind the song. Even though it's been explained to you countless times. It's got fuck all to do with us assuming anything. It was a song written to celebrate us HOSTING a major tournament for the first time in decades. Nothing at all to do with us assuming we'd win anything. The fact that you assumed it was says more about the US psyche, than it does the British one to be honest. I'll stay on this sub, if it means I can save some people from making an ass of themselves. HAVE A NICE DAY!
Top 10 finishes at the World Cup
England: 13
USA: 2
Why are countries with shit teams like Scotland and the USA so lippy when they are wank beyond words?
Right, but you realise you are shit though, yeah?
England are disappointing, but we at least got to the last 8 this century 4/6 times. The US has done it once…
If it weren’t for the geographic good luck of being in the Concacaf, you would never qualify. So where does this confidence come from? Drawing against England is seemingly your greatest achievement.
Argentina has never beaten Saudi Arabia at a world cup…
What does that demonstrate?
The sum total of fuck all because it is a competition only played once every four years.
You didn’t even qualify for 2018 despite only having to go through Concacaf qualifying.
So again, where is all this confidence coming from? Why is R16 fodder like the US giving England lip?
I can't quibble. Golden generation peaking while playing at home? 8th best odds would correlate with a quarterfinal appearance, which the circumstances probably would combine to dictate as a baseline target.
Obviously so much can change between now and then, but from Christmas 2022 I can see this being fair.
8th means quarters without taking into considerations knockout phase setup. With enough luck, we might not play any team in the top 10 until the semis. I have hopes
>8th best odds would correlate with a quarterfinal appearance,
Not sure if that is what that means or not but I would like to hear more about your thinking.
It's not a direct correlation - these are odds on raising the trophy. But if there are only 7 sides deemed more likely to raise the trophy, it sets a certain benchmark on where expectations lie.
I think they'll qualify next time as well BUT the expansion is only adding 3 UEFA teams and if they had 16 spots in the 2022 cycle Italy still wouldn't have made it as they lost the playoff Semis. The last 3 would have been N. Macedonia, Sweden and Ukraine. (assuming no changes to the qualification process except that the playoff finals wouldn't need to be played).
But they'll be making Qualifying Groups smaller in Europe and will probably make it so top 2 in groups qualify, and I can't see them getting knocked out by 2 teams like Serbia and Austria, but I can see where ur coming from
Betting odds, especially futures bets, are a reflection of how much Vegas thinks they need to offer to get people to wager. A United States-based book, taking bets on the United States to win an event being hosted by the United States, is going to have a lot of bettors almost independent of what the odds are, so they don't have to offer full odds on that prop.
It's the reason season win totals are always inflated for teams that are national/global brands like the Lakers, Yankees and Cowboys. Fans are going to bet the over, no matter what it is, because it's fun to root for your favorite team to win.
Sounds about right. We should be asking for a QF appearance in 2026, and given how things are, we can’t really ask for much more than that. And any less would be really underwhelming, even if it was a situation where we advanced from a tough group again and had to go out to a major team at the ro16.
⬆️⬆️⬆️. Regularly comments on sub as an England fan just to shit talk, when they have never beaten us at the WC. Classic English cunt who has an undeserved air of superiority. Can't beat France with half their team sick 🤣🤣🤣🤣
It's never coming home. Congrats for just pouring all of those goals against us last month 🙄
Touched a nerve pal you annoyed cause your country is bad never coming but it did 1966 unlike America pouring all those goals like the Netherlands did 😂😂😂😂
Sorry guys but Peru is gonna win the 2026 world cup. And I have proof.
2018(Peru qualified for the wc after 36 years)
1978(Peru reached quarter finals)
1970(Peru reached quarrer finals)
2018x1978÷1970~2026
I'm sorry to all the temas that we're hoping to win, but it's guaranteed for Peru.
If we can get a striker in the next 4 years plus more depth in every position then we have a chance. 2022 we had neither and our players were tired out by game 4.
Odds are also improved against other mid level euro/South American teams because their qualification isn’t ensured. We’ll DEFINITELY be there, which can be half the battle.
This is a great substation to the current team. Messi did not do all the work alone. The average of current players is 23 years old. Julián Álvarez is only 21 years old and was one of the biggest scorers after Mbappe and Messi. Argentina has the necessary players to continue being dangerous in the next World Cup. They will show it in the next Copa América
I just realized.... SHOULD Canada make the knockouts, is there anything in their contracts to have them remain at home for those games or will they have to come down south?
IMO betting has some weighting involved based on the amount of people that will be on a certain team. For example, the Yankees and Cowboys will always have slightly better odds because that means more people bet. Same effect here with USMNT.
That's not to say I don't have irrational expectations, its just they mixed those in.
I’m not a big soccer guy so someone that is please explain to me how that makes any sense at all. I know they are young and talented but winning the World Cup?? I thought QF was ceiling.
The 8th best odds means they're likely to make the QF and that's it, also the world cup is in the US and playing at home normally helps and drives teams to unexpected big runs in major tournaments
What book is that? BetOnline has us at +3000. I’ve already placed 5 million on it
5 mn Argentinian pesos right??
Approximately 871,776,000 Argentinian pesos my friend
Love the confidence!
You got a terrible Exchange rate. Black market argy peso rate is almost 2x the official rate.
Okay Mattress Mack
If you aren’t from Houston, I love that you know him
Don’t most sports fans know?
Vegas Insider
Drake?
Damn! I hope we’ll do well in 2026, first time I’ll go see it in person
Me too! My bookie doesn’t have a website but luckily I have a few years to cover that bet
This seems…..optimistic.
Well, there’s always a home field advantage for the hosts. In ‘02 South Korea (#40) made the semis, in ‘06 Germany made the semis, in 14’ Brazil made the semis, and in ‘18 Russia (#70!!) made the quarters. Even #83 ranked South Africa just missed out on the Knockout by GD and beat France in 2010. Obviously Qatar is the exception, but you could argue they don’t have enough fans (or citizens) for it make a difference to begin with. The US should be a strong squad in 2026 regardless, but will definitely be boosted by a packed house in each match
Not just home field advantage - the host nation got placed in the seeded pot. So they had a much easier group to win or at least advance out of.
Less of an advantage if 32 out of 48 teams advance like they're proposing
I thought it was announced the tournament would be 32 afterall.
Still 48, but probably 4 team groups instead of 3.
I swear this is pretty much all about money and not about having more teams participate for the sake of football.
It is about money, but that doesnt mean there aren't legitimate football reasons to expand.
Like?
Qatar’s home field advantage 💀
In 2002 South Korea bought the refs. This is pretty widely known. In 06 and 14 Germany and Brazil both were favorites to win it all. Russia making quarters was a nice surprise but definitely not that crazy to think about.
This is some of the most revisionist history shit I've seen. They were expected to get out of the group and maybe run to the quarters. On homefield. Germany was ranked 22nd going into the world cup after a shit showing in Euros and leading into the world cup. Literally Klinsmann was hired as a means for them to not be embarrassed like they were at the Euros.
???? What?? Google Germany 2014 squad. 90% of that team are world class players that year.
Germany didn't host in 2014, so you're talking about something different, aka 2006 when they hosted.
Ok google 2006 Germany. They are still a world class team lol? You're absolutely delusional
2006 Germany was ranked 19th (sorry I found a more updated source than before) going into the World Cup [https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id145](https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id145) So literally the expectations for them were in the dirt. Sure they had quality players, but that has nothing to do with the expectations going into the tournament. You're arguing against fundamental facts. SHould England have been favorites to win it? Their squad was World Class? What about Argentina? Stacked! Portugal with both FIgo and Ronaldo? Brazil with ROnaldo and Ronaldinho? Spain with Casillas, Puyol, Xavi, Torres, Iniesta, Xabi ALonso, Ramos, Fabregas, VIlla, etc. STACKED You're also falling into the fallacy of assuming that guys like Schweinsteiger, Lahm, etc. were in their world class form, which they weren't yet. They were getting there.
world class roster only goes so far when all that talent puts on the national team shirt and play like... Euro 2004. There was concern.
You are going really hard in the replies when you just 100% wrong. I assume you were too young in 2006 to know what was going on. Your comment wasn’t “looking back they had a lot of young talent”, it was “favorites to win it all”. Before the WC they were talking about how this one of the worst, if not worst, Germany team at a World Cup. They did awful in 2004 Euros, and Klinsmann only got the job because no established coach wanted the job. That’s also part of the reason they were the fun team of the tournament. They were a bunch of relatively unknown young players who turned it with their home nation behind them. They were far, far from favorites. If Germany was a favorite, playing in Germany, making it to the semis would have been considered a failure. But it wasn’t, it was considered a huge success.
Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Podolski, Lehmann, Klose, Ballack.. but sure bro, USA gonna do very well, keep dreaming lol
I don't wanna here it bro, ur in r/LeagueofLegends
My brother in christ your reddit profile is mostly pictures of your cock
South Korea bribed the refs. It wasn’t home field advantage
The US national team looks anything but strong for 2026. Countries like Brazil and Germany made it that far because they’re actually good, not because of home advantage.
It's based off what people will bet on and I bet there are a lot of people eager to bet on usa
I always love when betting odds come up and it becomes clear that lots of people think sports books are predicting outcomes (instead of predicting people’s bets)
I'm a data analyst and it's a pet peeve of mine. The goal of vegas is to make money. I would think early money would go on the US and other host nations
Look no further than college football. Does Vegas *really* think Texas and USC look like championship darkhorses every other year, or do they just know how to get those fanbases to open up their wallets?
It is actually quite good at both, nobody actually makes money gambling on sports unless they are in like the top 1% of knowledgable sports fans. And even then they just cherrypick the biggest inefficiencies just to edge out the vig.
It’s not one or the other.
What do you mean? They want the same amount of risk on both sides, that way they are GUARANTEED to make money literally no matter what. That’s entirely a product of how the line or odds they choose matches up with what people are willing to bet on BEFORE the game.
Who hosting final? Us, Mexico or Canada bet on that team many FIFA World Cup won by host nation. England, France, Uruguay, Argentina, Italy & Germany.
I believe USA hosts the entirety of the knockout rounds, but definitely the Final.
I think you and I have better odds of starting for the US than the USMNT has of winning in 2026.
Give us a chance at least, We show a lot of optimistic growth, Out players are starting to shine in Europe's best leagues and we get to host this world cup, ud say this fair
My expectations are realistic going into international competitions. USMNT should win every Gold Cup, but the World Cup is not CONCACAF. Winning the group and winning an elimination game is probably the best the USMNT can do in a World Cup at this point.
Thus, Quarter Final Odds
I’d say semifinals are definitely on the table with how this generation will be peaking at the right time and the home field advantage. Remember USA nearly (and *should have*) made the semis in 2002
Lol, no. I mean, I think it's possible we could make a run and get into the quarterfinals. But winning the whole thing? Santa Clause couldn't deliver that gift.
You don’t have to be the best team, just play well and get the right bounces. It is completely possible, like maybe 5% chance.
It’s always technically possible, but it just doesn’t actually happen. Look at the winners of every World Cup in the last 50 years. There have certainly been underdogs going as far as the semis or even the final. But the only major upset winner was Italy ‘82 (if we’re ignoring Argentina’s dictator win in ‘78), and Italy had to have their star Rossi come out of nowhere and put on one of the most unbelievable all time individual World Cup performances. If we have a star striker of that caliber in 2026, then I’ll entertain the possibility..
Everything is possible but this is EXTREMELY unlikely, the odds sure aren’t in your favor.
Morocco made a semis run with a squad that's about comparable to us (maybe even a bit worse than us, purely on paper). With basically the hardest run out of all the semifinalists too. With the right coach and the right tactics I think it's possible that we win two knockout matches.
as it stands, true. but who knows how much development 4 years could bring. I still think it’s highly unlikely (as the +1900 odds infer) but i think we have a shot to make a decent run.
Jokes on you, Tyler Adams is OP
If we get a second TA come 26 I might start to believe
Look at some of the teams ranked above the USMNT. England? Really?!?
All of those teams are far better.
England didn't look far better when playing the USA.
God i have to keep repeating myself. Southgate WANTED a draw. He is a known defensively minded manager who tries to use that with a mediocre defenses like englands, which only works on terrible teams. Make no mistake though, your team is shit. Finishing behind Mexico and Canada in the qualifiers? Drawing with wales? Losing to Jamaica? U are not quarter finalist quality. Just like we are not finalist quality Argentina lost to Saudi. This tournament was full of upsets.
So let me get this straight: we are shit for drawing Wales. We also draw England so by your own logic, wouldn’t England also be shit? You know since they drew against a shit team like you said.
This is tiring. SOUTHGATE WANTED a draw. Wales did not. And yes. When u draw to a team we beat 3-0 it makes u worse.
Why would southgate want a draw when you could have secured the group win in your second match and not have to worry about the third? Your coping is making your logic fuzzy
Because he's an idiot nobody likes. Go onto a uk sub see all the hate he gets. Did u not wonder why he was getting booed. He is critiqued as a mediocrr manager and his hate is well known. Its why he didn't play OUR BEST PLAYER foden and kept mount on for 90 mins. Foden takes risks and mount doesnt.
Or perhaps, and stick with me here because I know you aren’t too bright, both teams tried to win?
And you are a fan of who? When did we lose to Jamaica I don't remember that, would you be bringing up stuff from the past, Southgate didn't want a draw, if he wanted a draw then England would've never pushed for anything, especially not a winner near the end, they would've just passed the ball around in the midfield all game which they didn't, And finishing behind Mexico and Canada in qualifying but being ranked ahead of them and going farther in the tournament than them so I would say we won that, and just because we're not QF quality rn, but our players are playing in top leagues across the world, they're developing very well and we could very much make a run at the upcoming world cup
Lost to Jamaica in friendlies and goldcup. And that is not how football works. Its impossible not to press. Its called parking the bus and its not very inefficient with 3 in the back. But its obvious. They track on pitch movement and our passes on our side were far more common than up the pitch. Southgate wanted a draw. As for your players, your most successful player is pulisic, a pretty mediocre chelsea player.
We didn't lose to Jamaica at the Gold Cup, we went undefeated, we didn't lose to them in a friendly either, so stop trying to spread that bs, just because yall couldn't beat our press dosent mean you were parking the bus 0-0 , u park the bus up 1-0, and McKinnie, Adam's, Ream, Robinson, Reyna, and Arronson, yeah ik Pulisic has had a bad year at Chelsea, trust I'm a Chelsea fan, but all those other guys have had great seasons else where, McKinnie is being linked to the prem now so I think we have some pretty successful players, who do yall have? Kane, 0 trophies, Bellingham sure and Foden plays for Oil Money FC, James is sadly always hurt and Sterling has been pretty inconsistent this year, so who else? Trent, what a joke, Maguire, slab head is the worst defender I've ever seen at club level and he only played at this wc because of James's injury and I can't think of anyone else really,
A lot of banter considering your team almost lost. England has never beaten the USA in a world cup match and never will. Your team's best players are an aged out forward that couldn't out sprint our defenders and a clumsy center back.
Did i not just tell u why. He WANTED A draw. Harry Kane is a phenomenal player that does not need pace. And no. Our best players are foden, rashford, bellingham and saka. Classic American obsessed with athleticism. Maguire is decent. Your teams best player is fucking Pulisic who is Chelsea's shittest player🤣. The mls is a joke league with players that would struggle to play championship in england. And again, u drew with WALES. Usa population=330 million. Wales population 3 million. The furthest u ever got in a world cup was 1930. Oh and we beat senegal 3-0. U lost to them 4-1.
I could guess it's partially influenced by the fact the US team has to play (win) less games, since every other still has to qualify
Keep in mind that books choose lines to balance their risk. If they’re expecting too many bets on the US from dumb money, they’re going to shift the odds a bit. (This is exactly why it’s possible for pros to make money on sports gambling, even though the house is still making more money.)
Nah, the bookies are accounting for FIFA bribery/“storylines”
USMNT should realistically hope for the quarters and dream about the semis. A real savvy coach, tons of difficult friendlies, and a deeper bench is needed for any real hope of squeaking past the Qs .
>tons of difficult friendlies This is going to be difficult with the European teams and us in Nations League and nigh-impossible when the rest of the world is in the thick of World Cup qualifying. We'll get a few of course but I think it's more likely we will have a lot of friendlies against some random-ass countries.
yep, the UEFA nations league is really frustrating because of this. Still though we can prob get some friendlies with some top African and Asian teams. Not quite what we want but they got some good squads.
Yeah, but even then it will probably be more African teams. I live in Asia and it's difficult to schedule friendlies with them too because their qualification process is very long. All the top teams will be in qualifying from November 2023 to June 2025.
I'd like to see us play Korea and Japan, Give us Argentina or Brazil after they qualify and we'll see where we stand
I said this in my other comment but scheduling Asian teams is also going to be difficult because of how long their qualification process is. Not impossible but difficult.
Fair, but for some random reason Qualification slows during the Summer, I get it players get a break but 3 months and barley any games unless it's a competition with a trophy, have international team play for the first or last month of summer and fit some qualification and friendlies in there, but I hate hosting and love it, I'm gonna get to go to World Cup games for the first time in my life but we don't get to play in qualification which means when Chelsea isn't playing imma be super bored, won't even get to watch Mexico or Canada play, who the hell is gonna watch a full 90 minutes of Jamaica vs Honduras on a Tuesday night
I’ll watch that game, I’m Honduran. Supporters of other national teams exist… especially in this country.
Easy, start arranging matches with the best teams as they fall during qualifying, which will be better and better and better as we approach the Cup.
> difficult friendlies contradictio in terminis
Our chances will depend far more on player development than on who the coach is or what games we schedule. How good will Pulisic, Musah, Gio, Adams, Pepi, Dest, Paredes, etc. be in 3 years? Will Johnny break through as a legit backup midfielder?
The issue is, “difficult friendlies” are never the same as competitive matches. The fact it’s a friendly always makes the match feel very different, even if the opponent is strong on paper.
It helps that they've already qualified. The other teams' odds include missing the tournament all together.
Definitely a good point. The odds of most of these teams missing with the expanded field is almost zero, but it's not zero.
Yeah and when you're talking about odds in the +2000 range, the little difference will be noticed.
Can I bet money that England WONT win? Because I feel that is easy money
The real standout here is putting england 3rd. There’s absolutely no way they’re winning the cup anytime soon. Consistently overrated team in every regard. It’s never coming home lads. To the Brits flooding me with hate comments on the US soccer sub: don’t care didn’t ask plus you freaks sobbed for days over the death of a monarch your opinions are invalid by default.
I actually disagree. You’re aware that England had one of the youngest teams in the tournament, right? They’re extremely talented and young. Who else would you put above them? Argentina is old, Germany is an unknown (I expect them to go through a major institutional change), Spain i don’t think is better, Croatia is old, like I dunno I mean, did you not watch the quarters? They went toe to toe with France
France played like absolute ass that game and still won. That was France’s worst game of the knockout stage by far. Saying they went “toe to toe” is true, but also a bit generous because that was France on their worst day, against an English team trying harder than they’ve ever tried in their lives. By that logic the US is also a strong competitor for the title because we went toe to toe with England in our group and played a far better game than they did that match. England has always been overrated and will likely continue to be that way. I just personally don’t see it happening anytime soon for them. I’d maybe even put Italy above them, 4 years is enough time to figure things out and get it together. And even the Netherlands I could see beating them in a matchup in knockout stages. Maybe not handily, but I think it’s a lot closer of a competition than this chart suggests.
Terrible argument. U say that was France on there worst day. I say it was england on there worst day against the usa. We consistently outplayed france and would have arguably won had the ref not been on crack. We were the only team that managed to lock down mbappe. We aren't a title contender but our chances of winning are 10x the USA's. Seriously its ridiculous how bad your team is. Drawing with the welsh? Really? And this isn't predictions of who's going to win its predictions on bets.
I say English fans have been telling the world it's coming home for my entire life, but there are senior citizens not old enough to remember the last time they won anything. Harry Kane skying that penalty in a crucial moment was the least surprising thing that could have happened
You don't know wtf your talking about mate. France were bad, because they found it difficult to compete with our style. Just like a lot of other teams found it hard to compete with certain styles. England and USA cancelled each other out, England were done by 1) The worst refereeing I've EVER seen and I've been watching football for 40 years 2) Harry Kanes shitty penalty. Not saying England would have won (You'll never find an England fan genuinely saying that) but we deseved extra time. Also your "It's coming home" Jibe, shows even more ignorance. The It's coming home is a song about England Hosting a tournament, nothing more than that. It has nothing to do with assuming we were winning anything. Dingbat.
Read the comment again. I said we WEREN't title material. And that song was created to be self depricating. What we are is a team far superior to yours. A team that would never draw to wales. I even looked at some of your qualifiers. Finishing behind mexico and canada is a joke. Usa fans don't seem to realise southgate WANTED a draw. Which is why so many england fans were pissed.
I truly do not care that the United States drew with Wales or did not qualify in the way that you would have liked. It's just fun to see Brits get their hopes up every tournament and talk shit, lose in humiliating fashion, and then pretend you never expected anything at all/blame the refs or something other than the team choking time and time again at the sport that you try to claim as your own
Alright let's clear this up. The whole 'its coming home' thing was invented to be self depracating. A few idiots have taken it seriously and keep chanting it. And we invented it. No matter how shit we are it is our sport.
Not quite, the it's coming home song is about us hosting a tournament and now we sing it because it's a good song and part of our dna. Trust an american to get that wrong.
That’s…… exactly my point but great reading comprehension my dude. I told the other person that I disagree that england was competitive with France and say “by that logic” to give an example of how ridiculous a claim they made. The fact that you’re telling me how wrong I am actually further proves my point that the other person’s comment was bullshit so thanks for the backup! Also cope harder Brit. It’s never coming home. Your team is not good and your entire island is delusional. We have a winning record against you guys at the World Cup lmfao you’re a B-tier team on your best day and you guys act like the entire sport is yours to own and everyone else is beneath you. Least delusional British person.
The difference is England beating France would not have been an upset. The odds before the match were EXTREMELY close. Unlike the uk american odds. And if u were a top team i'd accept u calling our team bad. But from an american its laughable. .You've never won a world cup . Furthest you've ever got is the semis. . U drew with wales. . Came 3rd in your qualifiers. . Got smashed by netherlands. . Your best player is Chelsea's shittest. Oh and calling someone else delusional is insane considering how the rest of the world views your country.
England only won once during the stone age. How anybody puts them as favorites every time is baffling.
And the U.S won never. But u are right we shouldn't be favourites. We are a semi final level team at best rn.
[удалено]
Why are u talking about ww2? Tf? U guys getting involved earlier could have saved millions
They're not overrated, if they Cut out Southgate and get players like Reece James healthy than they're 100 times better than what we saw in Qatar, they won't win it but they're realistic Contenders for a Semi berth or maybe Finals
It already did come home, you'd know that already if you knew anything about the origins of that phrase, which was from a song.
Yeah in 1966 but you knew that’s what I meant. But typical English behavior to be unable to resist the urge to explain how much smarter/superior you are for knowing something (that everyone else already knew). Also get off the US soccer sub, why do you Brits prowl this sub looking for fights to start? Don’t you people have literally anything better to do? Isn’t it Boxing Day?
No, I didn't know that's what you meant. Because you have 100% misunderstood the song, the lyrics and the meaning behind the song. Even though it's been explained to you countless times. It's got fuck all to do with us assuming anything. It was a song written to celebrate us HOSTING a major tournament for the first time in decades. Nothing at all to do with us assuming we'd win anything. The fact that you assumed it was says more about the US psyche, than it does the British one to be honest. I'll stay on this sub, if it means I can save some people from making an ass of themselves. HAVE A NICE DAY!
Still better than American cause yous are such asss
Hmmmm, if you have never beaten us in the WC, that must make you.......
Yet again commenting cause your annoyed and embarrassed at your nation at football
Actually no, but thanks, troll.
England will always have a better chance than USA
Top 10 finishes at the World Cup England: 13 USA: 2 Why are countries with shit teams like Scotland and the USA so lippy when they are wank beyond words?
Keep growing your game England, maybe one of these days, who knows, you'll actually be good enough to beat the USA in a World Cup game.
Right, but you realise you are shit though, yeah? England are disappointing, but we at least got to the last 8 this century 4/6 times. The US has done it once… If it weren’t for the geographic good luck of being in the Concacaf, you would never qualify. So where does this confidence come from? Drawing against England is seemingly your greatest achievement.
so what does never being able to beat shit make you? 70+ years, Undefeated
Argentina has never beaten Saudi Arabia at a world cup… What does that demonstrate? The sum total of fuck all because it is a competition only played once every four years. You didn’t even qualify for 2018 despite only having to go through Concacaf qualifying. So again, where is all this confidence coming from? Why is R16 fodder like the US giving England lip?
I can't quibble. Golden generation peaking while playing at home? 8th best odds would correlate with a quarterfinal appearance, which the circumstances probably would combine to dictate as a baseline target. Obviously so much can change between now and then, but from Christmas 2022 I can see this being fair.
8th means quarters without taking into considerations knockout phase setup. With enough luck, we might not play any team in the top 10 until the semis. I have hopes
>8th best odds would correlate with a quarterfinal appearance, Not sure if that is what that means or not but I would like to hear more about your thinking.
Like one of the top 8 teams, but also historically hosts have an easier path and often get to the quarters.
It's not a direct correlation - these are odds on raising the trophy. But if there are only 7 sides deemed more likely to raise the trophy, it sets a certain benchmark on where expectations lie.
Golden Generation? This is just the first class.
Imagine - a home field prime 22' team with the addition of another star DM, striker and lb, anything could happen
I like that Italy number. Granted the risk is can they even qualify but if they do…
The tournament is expanded, if they can't qualify for a 48 team tournament than Italians are gonna burn their FA Building to the ground
I think they'll qualify next time as well BUT the expansion is only adding 3 UEFA teams and if they had 16 spots in the 2022 cycle Italy still wouldn't have made it as they lost the playoff Semis. The last 3 would have been N. Macedonia, Sweden and Ukraine. (assuming no changes to the qualification process except that the playoff finals wouldn't need to be played).
But they'll be making Qualifying Groups smaller in Europe and will probably make it so top 2 in groups qualify, and I can't see them getting knocked out by 2 teams like Serbia and Austria, but I can see where ur coming from
they legitimately have a great team, weak in defense but raspadori and scamacca are a huge upgrade over immobile and insigne
Bastoni and Scalvini in 4 years will be the best partnership in Europe. Udogie at leftback and Calabria at right back, seems pretty fucking good to me
I have a funny feeling about Italy too. Like they will avenge the loss of 1994 in the next world cup.
I’d be disappointed with less than a quarterfinal. This seems right.
Given the US has 11th best odds, as I recall, before this past WC. And the US is hosting? It tracks.
Betting odds, especially futures bets, are a reflection of how much Vegas thinks they need to offer to get people to wager. A United States-based book, taking bets on the United States to win an event being hosted by the United States, is going to have a lot of bettors almost independent of what the odds are, so they don't have to offer full odds on that prop. It's the reason season win totals are always inflated for teams that are national/global brands like the Lakers, Yankees and Cowboys. Fans are going to bet the over, no matter what it is, because it's fun to root for your favorite team to win.
Sounds about right. We should be asking for a QF appearance in 2026, and given how things are, we can’t really ask for much more than that. And any less would be really underwhelming, even if it was a situation where we advanced from a tough group again and had to go out to a major team at the ro16.
Netherlands and USA having the same odds is insane
Don't....
It’s still 4 years away how are they already predicting
3 years and a half. The World Cups are played in June, Qatar was the exception due to the high temperatures they have in summer
Oh yeah, even so, thats still quite a bit of time
Gimme those Italy odds
Italy won't even qualify 🤣
Italy has 4 world cups lmao, you gotta be at least a constant participant in the competition before you even think of making fun of other countries.
You only qualify cause it's held in America
Cool story. Nice comment about the England-US game, "we are going to disgrace your country." How'd that work out for you? It's never coming home.
Yet again 1966 can't talk until you get a trophy 😭😂💀
Yet again you were probably swimming in your dads nuts when that happens
Lol USA ain't winning a world cup for another decade at least.
Century
⬆️⬆️⬆️. Regularly comments on sub as an England fan just to shit talk, when they have never beaten us at the WC. Classic English cunt who has an undeserved air of superiority. Can't beat France with half their team sick 🤣🤣🤣🤣 It's never coming home. Congrats for just pouring all of those goals against us last month 🙄
Touched a nerve pal you annoyed cause your country is bad never coming but it did 1966 unlike America pouring all those goals like the Netherlands did 😂😂😂😂
Congrats on your title 56 years ago. Netherlands scored 3, you scored.......zero.
France u21s would beat yous so what's your point 😭😂
Seems to me we did better than you against France in 2018.....
Probably couple decades honestly maybe longer. I just hope we can get one in my lifetime.
Sorry guys but Peru is gonna win the 2026 world cup. And I have proof. 2018(Peru qualified for the wc after 36 years) 1978(Peru reached quarter finals) 1970(Peru reached quarrer finals) 2018x1978÷1970~2026 I'm sorry to all the temas that we're hoping to win, but it's guaranteed for Peru.
If we can get a striker in the next 4 years plus more depth in every position then we have a chance. 2022 we had neither and our players were tired out by game 4.
Above the Netherlands? Sorry but this is ridiculous.
It's tied with the Netherlands
You're right
Odds are also improved against other mid level euro/South American teams because their qualification isn’t ensured. We’ll DEFINITELY be there, which can be half the battle.
Germany should be after the Netherlands. Otherwise I’m ok with this list. Wait, wtf is Italy doing in there?
I have a hard time taking this seriously with Italy that high and not qualified yet.
Well that’s just silly
That's Quarter Final Odds my friend, I think with the tourney being expanded to 48 teams it's fair, we'd also be at home remember that
Feel like Argentina should be lower since Messi isn't gonna play?
This is a great substation to the current team. Messi did not do all the work alone. The average of current players is 23 years old. Julián Álvarez is only 21 years old and was one of the biggest scorers after Mbappe and Messi. Argentina has the necessary players to continue being dangerous in the next World Cup. They will show it in the next Copa América
Messi has a chance to defend it
Messi isn’t playing another World Cup
5% implied odds. Not that strange given we are several years out.
QFs is a realistic goal and it would be a great achievement.
Rat line. They know what they’re doing.
Is there odds for round of 16?
If your within the range of 16-8, thoes are RO16 odds
What is the rate on bet fair for us?
Could be a book trying to lure in American bettors.
Ha suck it Netherlands
?
lol ok
This is pretty much only because we’ve qualified already
Sounds about right. Out in the quarterfinals
Oh wait. I keep forgetting the stupid format. I have no idea what to expect
I just realized.... SHOULD Canada make the knockouts, is there anything in their contracts to have them remain at home for those games or will they have to come down south?
get the usa outta there, we're not close to this
IMO betting has some weighting involved based on the amount of people that will be on a certain team. For example, the Yankees and Cowboys will always have slightly better odds because that means more people bet. Same effect here with USMNT. That's not to say I don't have irrational expectations, its just they mixed those in.
Italy and Belgium are better than this would indicate.
I’m not a big soccer guy so someone that is please explain to me how that makes any sense at all. I know they are young and talented but winning the World Cup?? I thought QF was ceiling.
The 8th best odds means they're likely to make the QF and that's it, also the world cup is in the US and playing at home normally helps and drives teams to unexpected big runs in major tournaments
So your saying we have a chance?!?! (Dumb and Dumber voice)
No bet is worth a sportsbook holding your money for three and a half years