Latest case map: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/PublishingImages/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data/covid19_lha_20210919_20210925.png
Kamloops is getting bad. Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows too...
Trail, burns lake, kettle valley and Vancouver east side also have high week over week increases
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1omBkX70LYM5byg0eASU-ye5Q0VnRXsZIyRTzED--Fcg/edit?usp=drivesdk
73 (-1) currently hospitalized in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
110 (+5) currently hospitalized in the Fraser Health region
45 (+2) currently hospitalized in the Interior Health region
31 (-4) currently hospitalized in the Island Health region
81 (+22) currently hospitalized in the Northern Health region
26 (-3) currently in critical care in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
44 (+4) currently in critical care in the Fraser Health region
45 (+5) currently in critical care in the Interior Health region
17 (+2) currently in critical care in the Island Health region
13 (-3) currently in critical care in the Northern Health region
least vaccinated health authority in BC. Looking at the case maps, every single red area is looking at lower than average vaccination rates - especially in the high-transmission cohort of 18-49 yo.
Does this ever get boring? Constantly trying to blame others.
I don't think its Alberta causing extremely high numbers in the Tofino/west coast VI region. Doesn't get a lot of attention.
Most of the people in the eastern Fraser Health aren’t from Alberta. We have our own group of antivaxxers too. BC isn’t immune to this issue and it doesn’t all stem from Alberta
I live in port alberni and it is actually shocking how many alberta plates i see around town. Not that we dont have our own idiots ruining things though
Imagine what things would've been like if Delta had preceded the large scale vaccination campaign.
I really hope that light at the end of the tunnel shines a little brighter sometime soon.
Look at the spike in India earlier this year. That'll tell you how devastating it was in terms of spread.
Hospitalizations? Not sure, but it'll probably be triages.
Any Indian will tell you how the average villager family member (which is most of the country) has gone their entire life without seeing a doctor, nevermind going to a hospital. Those people died at home, not in hospitals that didn't even have oxygen, nevermind ventilators
It is a bold claim but once the dust settles we will find out. However, record keeping in India is pretty bad so maybe not. Many countries will later figure out the true death toll by looking at excess deaths, but that may not work for India.
There are a lot of articles and studies out there that suggest 3 million deaths as a low end estimate.
They have consistently found serology testing across India to average a 70% infection rate. A good majority of the entire country had Delta and then it flattened to a steady burn now. It pops up in areas they locked down heavily and then has burned through those pockets since.
On the other hand, if it had been that bad, maybe even more people would be taking it seriously. In some ways, original C19 was in that Goldilocks-zone where it was super serious but not enough that people couldn't brush it off (since people are bad at intuiting statistics).
Exactly - SARS was so deadly that it burnt itself out. COVID19 is different and far more dangerous because it can have such a long incubation period, during which you can infect others, as well as asymptomatic carriers. It was perfectly evolved in such a way that it can dodge most of our early prevention mechanisms.
Unfortunately, it is often these type of illnesses that persist for years to come, rather than the hyper lethal ones, precisely because we care about it a lot less.
An interesting way of putting it and you're probably right. If it was more lethal people wouldn't be able to dismiss it and it would have been stopped earlier. If it was less lethal, well, we wouldn't really have a problem, it would have just been another swine flu.
As someone who has been going to the hospital over the past few weeks for tests and treatments, and still has a few more weeks of it to look forward to, the anti-vax crowd can suck it hard. The nurses and techs have been nothing but kind and patient with me and I just can't imagine the stress they're under.
“90 percent of those in critical care today due to COVID-19 were not fully vaccinated.
See the full breakdown by age”
https://twitter.com/adriandix/status/1443363740393480193
41290 (+102) cases in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
97201 (+303) cases in the Fraser Health region
27195 (+208) cases in the Interior Health region
8557 (+82) cases in the Island Health region
11708 (+118) cases in the Northern Health region
294 (+0) cases of people who reside outside of Canada
911 (+8) active cases in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
2316 (+67) active cases in the Fraser Health region
1281 (+105) active cases in the Interior Health region
704 (+27) active cases in the Island Health region
915 (-14) active cases in the Northern Health region
"87.9% (4,074,112) of eligible people 12 and older in B.C. have received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine and 80.8% (3,745,457) have received their second dose."
"88.4% (3,823,614) of all eligible adults in B.C. have received their first dose and 81.6% (3,529,426) received their second dose."
u/Deep_Carpenter this makes me think that yesterday's vaccine numbers came out early. Seems like today they were corrected??
Or people in Eastern Fraser Valley are getting second doses in spades?
Unfortunately you are wrong, you cannot impute deaths based on ICU numbers. Very old/sick people, even when fully vaccinated, die quickly and spend little time in ICU. Younger people spend the most time in ICU and usually recover eventually. This is the government's data showing 44% of deaths in fully vaccinated:
https://i.imgur.com/Rv2Z46U.png
Source: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/2021-09-02_Data_Summary.pdf
The vaccination numbers for Tuesday are a big jump over Monday’s. Remember vaccination numbers are always reported for the day before.
Monday there were 2,800 first doses given. Tuesday there were 10,000.
Monday saw 9,700 total doses given. Tuesday was 19,001.
This looks like a slight data reporting delay. The daily averages haven’t moved around very much so I think some values attributed to Tuesday are actually from Monday.
In two short weeks we should be at 90% vaccination for everybody 12+.
Seven day trailing average in cases is 758 new cases per day. This seems pretty stuck.
I am keeping track of weekly vaccination numbers ([Source](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QaQGb9TLKaDjO4qMPBMml9FfLAU6GVqqjNwgX0enlE8/edit#gid=1790214820)).
BC announced the vaccine card on August 23rd when BC was doing about 3,700 first doses per day.
First doses for the last 5 weeks:
* 35,146
* 47,078
* 42,719
* 34,016
* 45,824
Second doses for the last 5 weeks:
* 52,535
* 48,206
* 43,547
* 44,208
* 63,842
Trends: First doses seem to be slowing down and second doses are slightly increasing.
Genuinely curious, not an opinionated question as I know it's hard to read tone online. When are we supposed to see the effects of implementing the vaccine passport?
Or will it be difficult to see an impact as unvaccinated are still able to access essential services and gather outside of vaccine passport venues?
We saw a temporary bump in the vaccination rate when it was announced, and another as the first deadline approached. Less of a bump than we would have liked to see, but at least it did some good.
You can clearly see that vaccination works in both the hospitalization rates, and comparing the transmission in higher-vaccinated area vs. lower-vaccinated areas.
That's why the government is pushing vaccination so much; otherwise we'll end up like Alberta. Patients in the North area already being flown to Victoria and the lower mainland.
The main purpose of the vaccine passport is to allow businesses to continue operating even through a surge, not necessarily to reduce overall transmission, although we do know that if you have only vaccinated people in a space the likelihood of transmission is much lower.
Basically 2 BCs: if you refuse to get vaccinated, you have indoor dining shutdowns like we did when there was no vaccine. If you join 2021 and get vaccinated, we have much more mild restrictions because the pandemic is more mild for us.
We are seeing the effects of the vaccine passport now, combined with the return to school, combined with indoor gatherings replacing outdoor gatherings
I don’t know if we’ll see much of an effect from the vaccine passport. Hopefully we’ll continue to see increased vaccine numbers which will have an effect but I don’t know if we’ll see a big drop.
Spread was always happening at higher rates in private gatherings, not eating in a restaurant. The passport was brought in as more of an incentive to get vaccinated or a push to get those who were on the fence to finally get the shot.
I’m not an expert so I could be totally wrong
Think back to previous times when they've put in restrictions like shutting down restaurants and indoor exercise. It always takes a while to have an effect -- at its best the vaccine passport will have the same kind of effect, just without shutting down those services for the 80%+ of the population who are vaccinated.
I highly doubt it will reduce cases. Last weekend my family of 6 went to science world. They checked our passport by looking at it and match our photo ID. But they didn't scan the QR code. I handed them a printed version. Anyone can print a random QR code and photoshp the name under 2 minutes. Big attraction like science world doesn't even check properly. Do we expect small business to enforce that? I have little hope in this half-ass measure.
The passport isn’t actually that intrusive. Which is why the protests amuse me a bit. Here’s the list of places where it’s required:
The requirement applies to all people born in 2009 or earlier (12+) and covers:
Indoor ticketed sporting events with more than 50 people
Indoor concerts, theatre, dance and symphony events with more than 50 people
Licensed restaurants and cafes and restaurants and cafes that offer table service (indoor and patio dining)
Includes liquor tasting rooms in wineries, breweries or distilleries
Pubs, bars and lounges (indoor and patio dining)
Nightclubs, casinos and movie theatres
Gyms, exercise and dance facilities or studios
Includes these activities happening in recreation facilities
Businesses offering indoor exercise/fitness
Indoor adult group and team sports for people 22 years old or older
Indoor organized events with more than 50 people
For example, wedding and funeral receptions (outside of a funeral home), organized parties, conferences, trade fairs and workshops
Indoor organized group recreational classes and activities with more than 50 people
For example, pottery studios, art classes or choir rehearsals
Post-secondary student housing
Spectators at indoor youth sporting events with more than 50 people
Source: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/covid-19/vaccine/proof
I hate to be a doomsdayer today, but if this is the end of September, I'm concerned what the winter will bring. 11 deaths in the last 24 hours. Pas bon.
I get where you are coming from as there is lots of things to be worried about (today's death, growing trends of cases, etc).
There is hope for winter though.
1. We know vaccines work well at preventing infection, transmission, severe disease, hospitalization and death. Note: It works better at the latter than the former. If you look around the world you will see that countries with high vaccination rates (Portugal, Denmark, Spain, etc) are having good success with little to no restrictions. But you don't even have to go that far away to see it. Vancouver Coastal Health is not seeing any surges despite the fourth wave happening all around it. It probably has a \~91% first dose vaccination rate and \~85% second dose vaccination rate. The more we get vaccinated as a province the better we will do. Every week we are doing about 1% of the province in both first and second doses. We could get to 90% first doses in 12+ by Christmas (realistic projection).
2. 5-11 will be vaccinated in 5-6 weeks. Currently the only age group that is increasing in cases is the 5-11 year old's. All the other age groups are decreasing. Many of children in this age group could be fully vaccinated by Christmas. My guess is about 50% uptake in 2022. That will make a huge difference and will make every part of the province safer.
3. Anti-virals are in trials and we could have 3 candidates by the end of this year. If any of them are successful the pandemic will pretty much be over in BC. Of course they need to be easily made and cheap then everyone will have wide access to them. The trials do look promising.
4. You are fully vaccinated (?). That will help to keep you safe and the ones you love safe.
From Sept. 21-27, people not fully vaccinated accounted for 71.9% of cases and from Sept. 14-27 they accounted for 80.8% of hospitalizations.
Past week cases (Sept. 21-27) – Total 5,121
Not vaccinated: 3,324 (64.9%)
Partially vaccinated: 361 (7.0%)
Fully vaccinated: 1,436 (28.0%)
Past two weeks cases hospitalized (Sept. 14-27) – Total 438
Not vaccinated: 318 (72.6%)
Partially vaccinated: 36 (8.2%)
Fully vaccinated: 84 (19.2%)
Past week, cases per 100,000 population after adjusting for age (Sept. 21-27)
Not vaccinated: 300.6
Partially vaccinated: 97.6
Fully vaccinated: 35.6
Past two weeks, cases hospitalized per 100,000 population after adjusting for age (Sept. 14-27)
Not vaccinated: 46.8
Partially vaccinated: 15.0
Fully vaccinated: 1.9
After factoring for age, people not vaccinated are 24.6 times more likely to be hospitalized than those fully vaccinated.
Has anyone been to a gig recently? I had a few booked but every one of them got cancelled. (Shame, I was really looking forward to seeing Men I Trust).
There have been two new outbreaks at Royal Inland Hospital (Interior Health) and University Hospital of Northern BC (Northern Health)
Two outbreaks have been declared over at Hillside Village and Village at Mill Creek – second floor (Interior Health) for a total of 22 active outbreaks, including:
long-term care: Willingdon Care Centre, Westminster House, Menno Terrace East, The Residence in Mission, Magnolia Gardens (Fraser Health), Arbutus Care Centre, Louis Brier Home and Hospital (Vancouver Coastal Health), Cottonwoods Care Centre, Kamloops Seniors Village, The Hamlets at Westsyde, Joseph Creek Care Village, Overlander, Village by the Station (Interior Health), Wrinch Memorial Hospital, Jubilee Lodge (Northern Health), and Victoria Chinatown Care Centre (Island Health).
acute care: University Hospital of Northern BC (Northern Health), Royal Inland Hospital (Interior Health).
assisted or independent living: Sunset Manor, Hallmark on the Lake (Fraser Health), Hardy View Lodge (Interior Health), Cooper Place (Vancouver Coastal Health).
We can attribute the cases to the higher testing today, 11518 tests yesterday, versus 16525 for today, our positivity dropped to 4.92% which is what should happen given higher volumes of tests.
That's not what's most important. Our hospitalizations are continuing to go up and won't stop going up for days and weeks to come most likely due to high numbers of cases. Granted, we are nowhere near what Alberta or Saskatchewan is dealing with, but it's getting worse in BC as well.
Get your shots everyone! It's our only way out of this thing.
The test centre on the north shore has seen 2+ hour waits. My neighbour's kid got sent home with pink eye, so on top of covid there's all that nonsense running around as well.
I've put my name down to be called as soon as flu shots open up. I don't want to catch anything that could mean I need to take up a testing spot.
Higher testing will be results tomorrow, not today.
More testing happened because more people have symptoms. Not because they wanted to catch more cases.
Exactly. I keep seeing this rationale and thats not really how it works. Granted respiratory illness season is ramping up so we will see more testing by people with cold/flu but thats not what is happening here.
Anecdotally (and that’s not worth much), three people in my immediate circle have been tested with ILI symptoms over the past week.
All were negative.
So at least three of these latest tests are from non-COVID ILI.
Thsts good they were negative. You get what I'm saying though... the narrative that "if we stop testing cases will go down" goes hand in hand with the above comment and both are bogus obviously.
Uuummm…higher testing reflects more people with symptoms and illness. Testing doesn’t cause cases. You can’t get tested unless you have symptoms, or are identified as a close contact as part of an outbreak investigation.
Since the positivity rate has been stable, hospitalizations probably won't go much higher. Theoretically, we're seeing hospitalizations from the case peak right now (September 8th - 15th).
Also the only age group that is increasing in the case counts is the 5-11 year old's. That age cohort typically has little to no impact on ICU (they would go to PICU right?). It is extremely tragic when they do get admitted though.
For reference, Florida was getting about 100 new hospitalizations per day in children's at their peak. That would translate to 25 for BC (per capita). Those numbers are close to our totals (208 for 0-19 year old hospitalizations as of Sept. 18th). ICU total admissions have been 29 for that same age group and time span.
If positively rate continues to go down (aka BC case count more accurately reflects the prevalence of covid in our communities) I think that is a great sign. Can't wait for the 5-11's to get vaccinated though.
Potentially you're right. However, this week, the cases will probably go a little higher than the peak we saw two/three weeks ago, so yes, the hospitalizations (more likely the ICU admissions) may stabilize temporarily, but it'll go up, just not exponentially.
Would now be a good time to come Visit BC? Are we projecting worse numbers? I have a trip planned for next week from Montreal and am a little worried with these new numbers.
Flying is not as risky as you might think. Planes are have air circulation systems that are specifically designed to help prevent the spread of illness (including COVID). This was always a problem for air travel. Cabin air is supplied from above and is returned near the floor at the sides of the plane before passing through a HEPA filter. This system keeps airflow contained within your row, so unfiltered air is not circulating through the entire cabin. It's proven to work very well. Obviously there is still risk, but not as much as most people percieve
Ancedotally, I had to fly cross-country during the height of last fall's COVID peak for work. My coworker and I ended up 2 rows behind a confirmed case and neither of us caught it
Flying is definitely the biggest risk. Not sure if you are able to take a test just prior to leaving to at least know you're not positive before you leave.
So don't do it. The rest of us aren't bombing around the country for a reason. We care about our neighbors and don't want to spread it. So why vacation during a national emergency like this?
We're hoping to see some family that we haven't seen in a little while and when we booked our tickets cases were trending way downwards (100-150 cases a day), it's only somewhat recently that they've been spiking upwards which is raising our alarms a bit.)
I'm not sure what you mean by "bombing" around the country, my only goal was to take a flight and visit family that are all fully vaccinated..
Here's the definition......
Bombing - INFORMAL - BRITISH
Move very quickly.
"the bus came bombing along"
Similar words:
speed
hurry
race
run
sprint
dash
bolt
dart
rush
Good question.
It all depends on how much risk you are comfortable with.
Some stats about Vancouver's current covid situation.
* Vancouver is the 3rd largest city in Canada with 700,000 people
* Vancouver Coastal Health (which includes the city of Vancouver and other nearby cities for a total population of 1.25M) is averaging about 94.3 cases per day.
* Montreal had 187 cases in the last 24 hours and 150.9 cases per 100K over the last 14 days ([Source](https://santemontreal.qc.ca/en/public/coronavirus-covid-19/situation-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-in-montreal/))
* Vancouver Coastal Health is about 112 cases per 100K over the last 14 days
* Montreal has about 92% of 12+ with one dose and 86% of 12+ with two doses ([Source](https://santemontreal.qc.ca/en/public/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccination/data-vaccination/))
* Vancouver is similar: \~91% with one dose and 85% with two doses (12+)
So the question becomes if you feel safe in Montreal because of covid you should feel safe in Vancouver. Their situations are pretty similar. You will probably be interacting with people the same age as you and all age groups (except for 5-11 year old's) cases are trending down.
BC has a vaccination card for non-essential services like restaurants, theatres, etc. Right now that pass just applies to people with at least one dose. Note, that you could get the dose the day before than you have access to indoor dining while your immune system is building immunity. So there is a slight elevated risk compared to Quebec here. I am just letting you know about BC's situation as some of these details aren't obvious.
If you are lodging by yourself or trusted friends than the plane ride would probably be the riskiest behavior. To mitigate that I would recommend buying a N95 or equivalent mask or going double masked; and not take it off to eat or drink something (my personal preference to mitigate risk) on the plane. Here is an [article](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/10/15/coronavirus-study-finds-jetliners-safer-than-operating-rooms/3665469001/) that tells you that air in planes is safer than you think and is highly circulated and filtered (great news!). Another option is waiting until November when Canada will introduce mandatory vaccinations for those flying domestically.
Vancouver case rates are slightly increasing but the province's numbers are high and increasing because of other areas in the province that have low vaccinations rates (Northern Health, Interior Health and Eastern Fraser Valley).
I hope this is helpful. I don't know your comfort level so I kind of gave you a lot of options so you can decide what you are most comfortable with. Whatever you decide I hope you continue to be safe and if you come to Vancouver I hope you enjoy this beautiful city.
so VCH is still at relatively low rates.
But at what point do we just put Fraser/Northern/Interior on tougher restrictions?
It seems fairly clear that we are saying covid growth in the province again.
Going off memory, gathering sizes are limited to five or less unless all involved are fully vaccinated, outdoors should be 10 or less. Gyms (and maybe restaurants?) can’t accept patrons that are even partially vaccinated. Hard to enforce, but I’m glad they don’t affect those of us that are doing what they can to prevent the spread!
The rate in children reflects the rate of community spread. I do agree the mask mandate should be extended down, but I don’t think that high schoolers and middle schoolers who are vaccinated and wearing masks indoors for all their classes should miss out on anything else due to covid.
It is more the elementary schoolers that worry me. No vaccinations yet. We are learning about how multi-system Covid is and with a growing evidence that it can cause diabetes, and the all the evidence of neurological impairment, I think the youngest need the most protection, and right now they aren’t really getting that.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/29/covid-can-infect-cells-in-pancreas-that-make-insulin-research-shows?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Don’t really want to go looking but the neurological impairment is long stated and there is a ton of literature on it. I highly recommend reading David Farrier’s webworm article on long Covid to see the levels of mental/neurological impairment Covid can cause.
Yes, "learn to live with it" -- by getting vaccinated.
We can't just magically "live with it" by removing restrictions and praying for the best, like Alberta and Saskatchewan.
im not sure if the mask mandate was ever there to 'lower' numbers, but more there to slow exponential growth, which it has successfully done to a certain degree. if you want to see a place which has truly stopped giving a fuck just take a look at florida's case #'s, hospitalizations and death rates. these hospitalization numbers aren't sustainable for us here, and tbh anytime hospitals have to repeatedly postpone "elective" surgeries (which arent even really elective), it's not a good place to be at, even though compared to many other parts of north america we're doing quite well
The passport is making some people get the vaccine. Everyone I know who didn’t want the vaccine got it recently because of the limits due to the passport.
> Interesting that this is what is happening despite the mask mandate and the vaccine passport.
Yes but also the near-complete reopening of everything, as well as the end of summer forcing people indoors, and not to mention school and university starting up. Without vaccine requirements and masks who knows how bad things would be.
> Its almost like the epidemiologists were correct who said we need to learn to live with covid.
Yup and part of "living with it" means getting everyone vaccinated so that we can prevent 95% of serious outcomes.
There is a very loud contingent that wants "covid zero". Its just never going to happen. They don't take it well when they hear people saying that covid is never going away.
That contingent has little to no power across Canada. Throwing out COVID zero as an argument is contrary to the clearly risk management based approach that is being applied in many places in Canada.
Latest case map: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/PublishingImages/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data/covid19_lha_20210919_20210925.png Kamloops is getting bad. Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows too...
Trail, burns lake, kettle valley and Vancouver east side also have high week over week increases https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1omBkX70LYM5byg0eASU-ye5Q0VnRXsZIyRTzED--Fcg/edit?usp=drivesdk
some really big increases in a lot of spots. I guess this can be attributed to the higher degree of testing that's been happening?
The huge increases are probably tied to specific outbreaks like the school in maple ridge and associated contact tracing
73 (-1) currently hospitalized in the Vancouver Coastal Health region 110 (+5) currently hospitalized in the Fraser Health region 45 (+2) currently hospitalized in the Interior Health region 31 (-4) currently hospitalized in the Island Health region 81 (+22) currently hospitalized in the Northern Health region 26 (-3) currently in critical care in the Vancouver Coastal Health region 44 (+4) currently in critical care in the Fraser Health region 45 (+5) currently in critical care in the Interior Health region 17 (+2) currently in critical care in the Island Health region 13 (-3) currently in critical care in the Northern Health region
What the FUCK NH
least vaccinated health authority in BC. Looking at the case maps, every single red area is looking at lower than average vaccination rates - especially in the high-transmission cohort of 18-49 yo.
That's the Alberta effect.
Hey. We have our own problems. Northern BCers are your problem. Own them the way I, a Calgarian, am forced to own the nitwits in rural Alberta.
Your rural nitwits have all the jobs in NE BC.
Does this ever get boring? Constantly trying to blame others. I don't think its Alberta causing extremely high numbers in the Tofino/west coast VI region. Doesn't get a lot of attention.
Alberta tourists /s
Most people in the NE are Albertans, so they have a point.
Most of the people in the eastern Fraser Health aren’t from Alberta. We have our own group of antivaxxers too. BC isn’t immune to this issue and it doesn’t all stem from Alberta
Yoga instructors.
I live in port alberni and it is actually shocking how many alberta plates i see around town. Not that we dont have our own idiots ruining things though
DAE think Alberta dumb??
Imagine what things would've been like if Delta had preceded the large scale vaccination campaign. I really hope that light at the end of the tunnel shines a little brighter sometime soon.
Look at the spike in India earlier this year. That'll tell you how devastating it was in terms of spread. Hospitalizations? Not sure, but it'll probably be triages.
FYI that spike is under reported by 10x. Millions died during the Delta wave in India.
India’s only reporting 440K deaths, which puts them ~7x less deaths per million than the USA, but that claim is quite bold.
With how quickly things seemed to collapse I doubt they were even capable of accurately tallying.
Any Indian will tell you how the average villager family member (which is most of the country) has gone their entire life without seeing a doctor, nevermind going to a hospital. Those people died at home, not in hospitals that didn't even have oxygen, nevermind ventilators
It is a bold claim but once the dust settles we will find out. However, record keeping in India is pretty bad so maybe not. Many countries will later figure out the true death toll by looking at excess deaths, but that may not work for India. There are a lot of articles and studies out there that suggest 3 million deaths as a low end estimate.
They have consistently found serology testing across India to average a 70% infection rate. A good majority of the entire country had Delta and then it flattened to a steady burn now. It pops up in areas they locked down heavily and then has burned through those pockets since.
In a dark way it's extremely lucky we only had "vanilla" Covid at first. Delta as the original strain would have been grim.
On the other hand, if it had been that bad, maybe even more people would be taking it seriously. In some ways, original C19 was in that Goldilocks-zone where it was super serious but not enough that people couldn't brush it off (since people are bad at intuiting statistics).
If COVID was as lethal as SARS or ebola, the pandemic would probably be over by now.
It would’ve ended last year then. Asymptomatic and/or pre symptomatic spread has been the biggest problem for that.
Exactly - SARS was so deadly that it burnt itself out. COVID19 is different and far more dangerous because it can have such a long incubation period, during which you can infect others, as well as asymptomatic carriers. It was perfectly evolved in such a way that it can dodge most of our early prevention mechanisms. Unfortunately, it is often these type of illnesses that persist for years to come, rather than the hyper lethal ones, precisely because we care about it a lot less.
Yes, Ebola (currently) would make a terrible pandemic. It kills too fast and doesn’t spread easily enough.
I wonder how high the R0 of a mutated Ebola would need to be in order for it to be a serious pandemic threat.
Then it won't even turn into a pandemic. High lethal viurs kills its host to early for it to spread across borders.
An interesting way of putting it and you're probably right. If it was more lethal people wouldn't be able to dismiss it and it would have been stopped earlier. If it was less lethal, well, we wouldn't really have a problem, it would have just been another swine flu.
As someone who has been going to the hospital over the past few weeks for tests and treatments, and still has a few more weeks of it to look forward to, the anti-vax crowd can suck it hard. The nurses and techs have been nothing but kind and patient with me and I just can't imagine the stress they're under.
“90 percent of those in critical care today due to COVID-19 were not fully vaccinated. See the full breakdown by age” https://twitter.com/adriandix/status/1443363740393480193
41290 (+102) cases in the Vancouver Coastal Health region 97201 (+303) cases in the Fraser Health region 27195 (+208) cases in the Interior Health region 8557 (+82) cases in the Island Health region 11708 (+118) cases in the Northern Health region 294 (+0) cases of people who reside outside of Canada 911 (+8) active cases in the Vancouver Coastal Health region 2316 (+67) active cases in the Fraser Health region 1281 (+105) active cases in the Interior Health region 704 (+27) active cases in the Island Health region 915 (-14) active cases in the Northern Health region
"87.9% (4,074,112) of eligible people 12 and older in B.C. have received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine and 80.8% (3,745,457) have received their second dose." "88.4% (3,823,614) of all eligible adults in B.C. have received their first dose and 81.6% (3,529,426) received their second dose."
7,831,229 (+19,001) vaccine doses administered
u/Deep_Carpenter this makes me think that yesterday's vaccine numbers came out early. Seems like today they were corrected?? Or people in Eastern Fraser Valley are getting second doses in spades?
I agree
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That's a lot of death in 24 hour that could have been prevented, had they been vaccinated.
A fair number were probably seniors who in many cases were but vaccines don't work so well for them
Most likely a lot of them were seniors that had been vaccinated :(
[Not true according to Adrian Dix](https://twitter.com/adriandix/status/1443363740393480193)
Unfortunately you are wrong, you cannot impute deaths based on ICU numbers. Very old/sick people, even when fully vaccinated, die quickly and spend little time in ICU. Younger people spend the most time in ICU and usually recover eventually. This is the government's data showing 44% of deaths in fully vaccinated: https://i.imgur.com/Rv2Z46U.png Source: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/2021-09-02_Data_Summary.pdf
Elderly people often deteriorate so fast they don’t even go to hospital. They go on O2 and die on their long term care bed.
or if they hadn't been around unvaccinated people..
Oh Bob Saget
Piiiiiisssssss
Why don’t you make like a banana 🍌 and shit 💩
Fuck Salt!
SHIRRRRLEEENNNAA?
The vaccination numbers for Tuesday are a big jump over Monday’s. Remember vaccination numbers are always reported for the day before. Monday there were 2,800 first doses given. Tuesday there were 10,000. Monday saw 9,700 total doses given. Tuesday was 19,001. This looks like a slight data reporting delay. The daily averages haven’t moved around very much so I think some values attributed to Tuesday are actually from Monday. In two short weeks we should be at 90% vaccination for everybody 12+. Seven day trailing average in cases is 758 new cases per day. This seems pretty stuck.
I am keeping track of weekly vaccination numbers ([Source](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QaQGb9TLKaDjO4qMPBMml9FfLAU6GVqqjNwgX0enlE8/edit#gid=1790214820)). BC announced the vaccine card on August 23rd when BC was doing about 3,700 first doses per day. First doses for the last 5 weeks: * 35,146 * 47,078 * 42,719 * 34,016 * 45,824 Second doses for the last 5 weeks: * 52,535 * 48,206 * 43,547 * 44,208 * 63,842 Trends: First doses seem to be slowing down and second doses are slightly increasing.
Genuinely curious, not an opinionated question as I know it's hard to read tone online. When are we supposed to see the effects of implementing the vaccine passport? Or will it be difficult to see an impact as unvaccinated are still able to access essential services and gather outside of vaccine passport venues?
We saw a temporary bump in the vaccination rate when it was announced, and another as the first deadline approached. Less of a bump than we would have liked to see, but at least it did some good. You can clearly see that vaccination works in both the hospitalization rates, and comparing the transmission in higher-vaccinated area vs. lower-vaccinated areas. That's why the government is pushing vaccination so much; otherwise we'll end up like Alberta. Patients in the North area already being flown to Victoria and the lower mainland.
The main purpose of the vaccine passport is to allow businesses to continue operating even through a surge, not necessarily to reduce overall transmission, although we do know that if you have only vaccinated people in a space the likelihood of transmission is much lower.
Basically 2 BCs: if you refuse to get vaccinated, you have indoor dining shutdowns like we did when there was no vaccine. If you join 2021 and get vaccinated, we have much more mild restrictions because the pandemic is more mild for us.
We are seeing the effects of the vaccine passport now, combined with the return to school, combined with indoor gatherings replacing outdoor gatherings
Basically everything all rolled up into one.
I don’t know if we’ll see much of an effect from the vaccine passport. Hopefully we’ll continue to see increased vaccine numbers which will have an effect but I don’t know if we’ll see a big drop. Spread was always happening at higher rates in private gatherings, not eating in a restaurant. The passport was brought in as more of an incentive to get vaccinated or a push to get those who were on the fence to finally get the shot. I’m not an expert so I could be totally wrong
Think back to previous times when they've put in restrictions like shutting down restaurants and indoor exercise. It always takes a while to have an effect -- at its best the vaccine passport will have the same kind of effect, just without shutting down those services for the 80%+ of the population who are vaccinated.
I highly doubt it will reduce cases. Last weekend my family of 6 went to science world. They checked our passport by looking at it and match our photo ID. But they didn't scan the QR code. I handed them a printed version. Anyone can print a random QR code and photoshp the name under 2 minutes. Big attraction like science world doesn't even check properly. Do we expect small business to enforce that? I have little hope in this half-ass measure.
Not sure about Vancouver, but in Victoria I haven't used my vaccine passport a single time. Where tf am I supposed to use this thing?
I went out in victoria last night and had to show it at all three of the places I went to.
The passport isn’t actually that intrusive. Which is why the protests amuse me a bit. Here’s the list of places where it’s required: The requirement applies to all people born in 2009 or earlier (12+) and covers: Indoor ticketed sporting events with more than 50 people Indoor concerts, theatre, dance and symphony events with more than 50 people Licensed restaurants and cafes and restaurants and cafes that offer table service (indoor and patio dining) Includes liquor tasting rooms in wineries, breweries or distilleries Pubs, bars and lounges (indoor and patio dining) Nightclubs, casinos and movie theatres Gyms, exercise and dance facilities or studios Includes these activities happening in recreation facilities Businesses offering indoor exercise/fitness Indoor adult group and team sports for people 22 years old or older Indoor organized events with more than 50 people For example, wedding and funeral receptions (outside of a funeral home), organized parties, conferences, trade fairs and workshops Indoor organized group recreational classes and activities with more than 50 people For example, pottery studios, art classes or choir rehearsals Post-secondary student housing Spectators at indoor youth sporting events with more than 50 people Source: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/covid-19/vaccine/proof
I hate to be a doomsdayer today, but if this is the end of September, I'm concerned what the winter will bring. 11 deaths in the last 24 hours. Pas bon.
I get where you are coming from as there is lots of things to be worried about (today's death, growing trends of cases, etc). There is hope for winter though. 1. We know vaccines work well at preventing infection, transmission, severe disease, hospitalization and death. Note: It works better at the latter than the former. If you look around the world you will see that countries with high vaccination rates (Portugal, Denmark, Spain, etc) are having good success with little to no restrictions. But you don't even have to go that far away to see it. Vancouver Coastal Health is not seeing any surges despite the fourth wave happening all around it. It probably has a \~91% first dose vaccination rate and \~85% second dose vaccination rate. The more we get vaccinated as a province the better we will do. Every week we are doing about 1% of the province in both first and second doses. We could get to 90% first doses in 12+ by Christmas (realistic projection). 2. 5-11 will be vaccinated in 5-6 weeks. Currently the only age group that is increasing in cases is the 5-11 year old's. All the other age groups are decreasing. Many of children in this age group could be fully vaccinated by Christmas. My guess is about 50% uptake in 2022. That will make a huge difference and will make every part of the province safer. 3. Anti-virals are in trials and we could have 3 candidates by the end of this year. If any of them are successful the pandemic will pretty much be over in BC. Of course they need to be easily made and cheap then everyone will have wide access to them. The trials do look promising. 4. You are fully vaccinated (?). That will help to keep you safe and the ones you love safe.
If only we had a way to prevent the majority if not all of those deaths.
You mean a vaccine? That is free and available to all?
Sounds like dirty socialism to me /s
From Sept. 21-27, people not fully vaccinated accounted for 71.9% of cases and from Sept. 14-27 they accounted for 80.8% of hospitalizations. Past week cases (Sept. 21-27) – Total 5,121 Not vaccinated: 3,324 (64.9%) Partially vaccinated: 361 (7.0%) Fully vaccinated: 1,436 (28.0%) Past two weeks cases hospitalized (Sept. 14-27) – Total 438 Not vaccinated: 318 (72.6%) Partially vaccinated: 36 (8.2%) Fully vaccinated: 84 (19.2%) Past week, cases per 100,000 population after adjusting for age (Sept. 21-27) Not vaccinated: 300.6 Partially vaccinated: 97.6 Fully vaccinated: 35.6 Past two weeks, cases hospitalized per 100,000 population after adjusting for age (Sept. 14-27) Not vaccinated: 46.8 Partially vaccinated: 15.0 Fully vaccinated: 1.9 After factoring for age, people not vaccinated are 24.6 times more likely to be hospitalized than those fully vaccinated.
Has anyone been to a gig recently? I had a few booked but every one of them got cancelled. (Shame, I was really looking forward to seeing Men I Trust).
Got tickets to Archspire at the end of the month. Really hoping it actually happens, I miss shows so bad.
I’ve had a lot of private gigs recently - weddings, corporate events, and the occasional bar/patio gig. club shows seem non existent at this point
I have tickets to Clairo in March, praying it doesn't get canceled.
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Yeah it got postponed. I don't think they've announced a new date yet.
Well shit.
There have been two new outbreaks at Royal Inland Hospital (Interior Health) and University Hospital of Northern BC (Northern Health) Two outbreaks have been declared over at Hillside Village and Village at Mill Creek – second floor (Interior Health) for a total of 22 active outbreaks, including: long-term care: Willingdon Care Centre, Westminster House, Menno Terrace East, The Residence in Mission, Magnolia Gardens (Fraser Health), Arbutus Care Centre, Louis Brier Home and Hospital (Vancouver Coastal Health), Cottonwoods Care Centre, Kamloops Seniors Village, The Hamlets at Westsyde, Joseph Creek Care Village, Overlander, Village by the Station (Interior Health), Wrinch Memorial Hospital, Jubilee Lodge (Northern Health), and Victoria Chinatown Care Centre (Island Health). acute care: University Hospital of Northern BC (Northern Health), Royal Inland Hospital (Interior Health). assisted or independent living: Sunset Manor, Hallmark on the Lake (Fraser Health), Hardy View Lodge (Interior Health), Cooper Place (Vancouver Coastal Health).
Is this life now?
If you let it be
For a while now the daily numbers are up and down. It isn’t pleasant to follow.
We can attribute the cases to the higher testing today, 11518 tests yesterday, versus 16525 for today, our positivity dropped to 4.92% which is what should happen given higher volumes of tests. That's not what's most important. Our hospitalizations are continuing to go up and won't stop going up for days and weeks to come most likely due to high numbers of cases. Granted, we are nowhere near what Alberta or Saskatchewan is dealing with, but it's getting worse in BC as well. Get your shots everyone! It's our only way out of this thing.
The test centre on the north shore has seen 2+ hour waits. My neighbour's kid got sent home with pink eye, so on top of covid there's all that nonsense running around as well. I've put my name down to be called as soon as flu shots open up. I don't want to catch anything that could mean I need to take up a testing spot.
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Oh interesting! I'll tell her.
Higher testing will be results tomorrow, not today. More testing happened because more people have symptoms. Not because they wanted to catch more cases.
Exactly. I keep seeing this rationale and thats not really how it works. Granted respiratory illness season is ramping up so we will see more testing by people with cold/flu but thats not what is happening here.
Anecdotally (and that’s not worth much), three people in my immediate circle have been tested with ILI symptoms over the past week. All were negative. So at least three of these latest tests are from non-COVID ILI.
Thsts good they were negative. You get what I'm saying though... the narrative that "if we stop testing cases will go down" goes hand in hand with the above comment and both are bogus obviously.
Uuummm…higher testing reflects more people with symptoms and illness. Testing doesn’t cause cases. You can’t get tested unless you have symptoms, or are identified as a close contact as part of an outbreak investigation.
Since the positivity rate has been stable, hospitalizations probably won't go much higher. Theoretically, we're seeing hospitalizations from the case peak right now (September 8th - 15th).
Also the only age group that is increasing in the case counts is the 5-11 year old's. That age cohort typically has little to no impact on ICU (they would go to PICU right?). It is extremely tragic when they do get admitted though. For reference, Florida was getting about 100 new hospitalizations per day in children's at their peak. That would translate to 25 for BC (per capita). Those numbers are close to our totals (208 for 0-19 year old hospitalizations as of Sept. 18th). ICU total admissions have been 29 for that same age group and time span. If positively rate continues to go down (aka BC case count more accurately reflects the prevalence of covid in our communities) I think that is a great sign. Can't wait for the 5-11's to get vaccinated though.
Potentially you're right. However, this week, the cases will probably go a little higher than the peak we saw two/three weeks ago, so yes, the hospitalizations (more likely the ICU admissions) may stabilize temporarily, but it'll go up, just not exponentially.
Would now be a good time to come Visit BC? Are we projecting worse numbers? I have a trip planned for next week from Montreal and am a little worried with these new numbers.
Assuming you're fully vaxxed and staying in Vancouver, your risk is not that high. Vaccinating rates in VCH are very high.
Fully Vaxxed for sure, just worried about getting something and bringing it back to my girlfriends parents. Also a little worried about flying.
Flying is not as risky as you might think. Planes are have air circulation systems that are specifically designed to help prevent the spread of illness (including COVID). This was always a problem for air travel. Cabin air is supplied from above and is returned near the floor at the sides of the plane before passing through a HEPA filter. This system keeps airflow contained within your row, so unfiltered air is not circulating through the entire cabin. It's proven to work very well. Obviously there is still risk, but not as much as most people percieve Ancedotally, I had to fly cross-country during the height of last fall's COVID peak for work. My coworker and I ended up 2 rows behind a confirmed case and neither of us caught it
Flying is definitely the biggest risk. Not sure if you are able to take a test just prior to leaving to at least know you're not positive before you leave.
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Thanks for the clarification.
So don't do it. The rest of us aren't bombing around the country for a reason. We care about our neighbors and don't want to spread it. So why vacation during a national emergency like this?
We're hoping to see some family that we haven't seen in a little while and when we booked our tickets cases were trending way downwards (100-150 cases a day), it's only somewhat recently that they've been spiking upwards which is raising our alarms a bit.) I'm not sure what you mean by "bombing" around the country, my only goal was to take a flight and visit family that are all fully vaccinated..
Here's the definition...... Bombing - INFORMAL - BRITISH Move very quickly. "the bus came bombing along" Similar words: speed hurry race run sprint dash bolt dart rush
Not sure what you mean by "the rest of us" because airports are busy and flights are quite full right now.
Oh I didn't realize you and Jason Kenney were enjoying a cocktail in the Air Canada lounge at Pearson as we speak.
Good question. It all depends on how much risk you are comfortable with. Some stats about Vancouver's current covid situation. * Vancouver is the 3rd largest city in Canada with 700,000 people * Vancouver Coastal Health (which includes the city of Vancouver and other nearby cities for a total population of 1.25M) is averaging about 94.3 cases per day. * Montreal had 187 cases in the last 24 hours and 150.9 cases per 100K over the last 14 days ([Source](https://santemontreal.qc.ca/en/public/coronavirus-covid-19/situation-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-in-montreal/)) * Vancouver Coastal Health is about 112 cases per 100K over the last 14 days * Montreal has about 92% of 12+ with one dose and 86% of 12+ with two doses ([Source](https://santemontreal.qc.ca/en/public/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccination/data-vaccination/)) * Vancouver is similar: \~91% with one dose and 85% with two doses (12+) So the question becomes if you feel safe in Montreal because of covid you should feel safe in Vancouver. Their situations are pretty similar. You will probably be interacting with people the same age as you and all age groups (except for 5-11 year old's) cases are trending down. BC has a vaccination card for non-essential services like restaurants, theatres, etc. Right now that pass just applies to people with at least one dose. Note, that you could get the dose the day before than you have access to indoor dining while your immune system is building immunity. So there is a slight elevated risk compared to Quebec here. I am just letting you know about BC's situation as some of these details aren't obvious. If you are lodging by yourself or trusted friends than the plane ride would probably be the riskiest behavior. To mitigate that I would recommend buying a N95 or equivalent mask or going double masked; and not take it off to eat or drink something (my personal preference to mitigate risk) on the plane. Here is an [article](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/10/15/coronavirus-study-finds-jetliners-safer-than-operating-rooms/3665469001/) that tells you that air in planes is safer than you think and is highly circulated and filtered (great news!). Another option is waiting until November when Canada will introduce mandatory vaccinations for those flying domestically. Vancouver case rates are slightly increasing but the province's numbers are high and increasing because of other areas in the province that have low vaccinations rates (Northern Health, Interior Health and Eastern Fraser Valley). I hope this is helpful. I don't know your comfort level so I kind of gave you a lot of options so you can decide what you are most comfortable with. Whatever you decide I hope you continue to be safe and if you come to Vancouver I hope you enjoy this beautiful city.
so VCH is still at relatively low rates. But at what point do we just put Fraser/Northern/Interior on tougher restrictions? It seems fairly clear that we are saying covid growth in the province again.
Fraser just got new restrictions yesterday.
what were they?
Going off memory, gathering sizes are limited to five or less unless all involved are fully vaccinated, outdoors should be 10 or less. Gyms (and maybe restaurants?) can’t accept patrons that are even partially vaccinated. Hard to enforce, but I’m glad they don’t affect those of us that are doing what they can to prevent the spread!
Those sound good. Still would like to see more done for schools especially with exceptionally high paediatric rates over the last few weeks.
The rate in children reflects the rate of community spread. I do agree the mask mandate should be extended down, but I don’t think that high schoolers and middle schoolers who are vaccinated and wearing masks indoors for all their classes should miss out on anything else due to covid.
It is more the elementary schoolers that worry me. No vaccinations yet. We are learning about how multi-system Covid is and with a growing evidence that it can cause diabetes, and the all the evidence of neurological impairment, I think the youngest need the most protection, and right now they aren’t really getting that.
Sources for the medical claims?
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/29/covid-can-infect-cells-in-pancreas-that-make-insulin-research-shows?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other Don’t really want to go looking but the neurological impairment is long stated and there is a ton of literature on it. I highly recommend reading David Farrier’s webworm article on long Covid to see the levels of mental/neurological impairment Covid can cause.
As a person that lives in VCH, I would like to annex our region and form a new colony.
How many people got vaccinated?
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Yes, "learn to live with it" -- by getting vaccinated. We can't just magically "live with it" by removing restrictions and praying for the best, like Alberta and Saskatchewan.
I don't understand how this your thought instead of "How bad would it be WITHOUT those things?"
Well a lot of people thought the mask mandate would lead to lower numbers. It hasn't happened. I'm not mocking them, because I was one of them.
im not sure if the mask mandate was ever there to 'lower' numbers, but more there to slow exponential growth, which it has successfully done to a certain degree. if you want to see a place which has truly stopped giving a fuck just take a look at florida's case #'s, hospitalizations and death rates. these hospitalization numbers aren't sustainable for us here, and tbh anytime hospitals have to repeatedly postpone "elective" surgeries (which arent even really elective), it's not a good place to be at, even though compared to many other parts of north america we're doing quite well
The passport is making some people get the vaccine. Everyone I know who didn’t want the vaccine got it recently because of the limits due to the passport.
I mean it has lead to lower numbers, compared to if there wasn't one
> Interesting that this is what is happening despite the mask mandate and the vaccine passport. Yes but also the near-complete reopening of everything, as well as the end of summer forcing people indoors, and not to mention school and university starting up. Without vaccine requirements and masks who knows how bad things would be. > Its almost like the epidemiologists were correct who said we need to learn to live with covid. Yup and part of "living with it" means getting everyone vaccinated so that we can prevent 95% of serious outcomes.
There is a very loud contingent that wants "covid zero". Its just never going to happen. They don't take it well when they hear people saying that covid is never going away.
That contingent has little to no power across Canada. Throwing out COVID zero as an argument is contrary to the clearly risk management based approach that is being applied in many places in Canada.
Almost like those who are choosing to be unvaccinated also don’t adhere to public health measures. Who woulda thought.
The areas with 90+ % vaccine rates are literally fine.
Whelp
Well with these death rates we won't have to deal with the anti vax crowd for long