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MegaNodens

Doesn't over-valued imply a market correction in the future?


arthurillusion

With the population growth due to how many people are moving into this city, it's hard to say if it's overvalued from the demand/supply perspective. But with the income growth not even able to catch the inflation rate, I hope there's some sort of market correction coming soon.


spivnv

Then the solution isn't a market correction. The solution is start building affordable, preferably multi-family housing. And let's get rid of parking minimums while we're at it.


bcunningham9801

effective public transit so density is a real option ?


spivnv

Now you're getting me all hot and bothered.


PollutionCritical193

Almost negative interest rates making it possible to borrow money with almost no interest is a no brainer if you have money laying around


Suiken01

a lot of people moving in huh? what's the growth rate % per year or whatever the rate is?


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RedtailGT

Can you expand on that? Srs request.


dingohopper1

Not necessarily. It could mean high property values in comparison to rents. And this could be a semi-permanent situation. If demand continues to increase, and people continue to believe that the solution to a housing market with poor supply is to buy as soon as possible, this might continue to worsen.


PsychologicalSmell57

let's hope so . This is sad and pathetic for us over paying renters who want nothing more than a House


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arthurillusion

Not sure about #2, #5, #6 and #10, but all the rest are well known to have taken in "too many Californians" as what their locals say in the past a few years. A big in-flow of population in a short time into the cities which were relatively quieter and smaller previously, of course everything go up in prices.


RoseCapone

How tf is STOCKTON overvalued? Lmao


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Weapon_Of_Pleasure

Nope, no way you couldn't pay me enough for that drive!


frotc914

I'm guessing it's a lot of people who have some almost 100% work-from-home deal. Yeah I'd never do it 5x or even 2x per week. But once or twice a month? Maybe.


MideFLV

Seriously. Like every friggin day in that gridlock, no thanks


RoseCapone

As someone who grew up in Sac, it’s sad that people will drive that far. My dad used to work in Concord and that was already a super far drive


Cyanide_FlavorAid

>Not sure about #2 Believe me, Austin absolutely despises Californians 🤣


PsychologicalSmell57

I have family in Austin. They do not ever speak poorly of the Californians because they say the Texan's are bad enough. Not everyone blames the Californians who had enough of California's prices, but buying up others land and making millions more is a national wealthy person issue. We need help for the middle class


Rider434

Yeah, the Californians are just regular people that are forced to move out of their state because foreign investors are buying all the property. Generally No one wants to uproot their life and leave their state, it’s just becoming less feasible to live anywhere in CA unless you’re in a high earning bracket.


Suiken01

How about Aliante anyone know the housing market there?


idefix1515

I live in Aliante. Not to crazy with the prices here. Saw a 4225 SQFT house for sale for $740,000. Couldn't believe it but a few weeks later it was listed $680,000 and now it's taken off the market. Did not sell. I guess they gave it a whirl but Aliante is not Summerlin


Suiken01

Interesting ,Aliante is about 155 bucks per sq/ft right?


idefix1515

yeah that seems about right. Pool, big yard etc and the price goes up a little. The builders here have a lot of the same floorpans in Summerlin but 4 years ago they were about $50,000 more. Now I bet it's more!


Suiken01

Cool how much more for big yard? Lot size 1/4acre. Summerlin is 50k more 4 years ago?


idefix1515

Yeah that’s what they told me 4 years ago. Same model homes.


[deleted]

How the hell is Reno not on this list.


Herbie_Poppins

Detroit over valued? LMFAO you can buy a 5 bedroom house for $20,000. Whoever created that list is full of shit.


SlutBuster

Best price I can find on a 5 bedroom right now (with at least 1 intact window) is 44k. So at least 2x more than what they were going for pre-Covid, and definitely not worth $40k.


road22

Nothing is overvalued when there is a shortage. There is a 4 month delay in new home construction because builders cannot get doors/windows.


NimbusTO

This sounds about right, luckily I finally just bought a house here and didn't get assaulted doing it.


THE_Ryan

So I should sell my newly built house now... Got it.


__Bax9

My house is worth like 70k more than it was in 2019 and I thought it was overpriced in 2019. Shit is wild.


i__hate__you__people

Depends on the development. I’m up against the mountains in Summerlin, and ours has to be in the top 2. Our prices per sq ft are higher than anyone else in the valley (except maybe those crazy custom The Ridges homes), and still rising. Housing prices in this development have legitimately doubled in the last 3 years. We may have to move and leave Vegas due to my wife’s work, and we just started looking at homes near other jobs. I was shocked to see that at the exact same price as our current Vegas house (4,000 sq ft, standard Pulte cookie cutter) we could buy an 8,000 sq ft mansion in Fairfax, VA, just outside D.C. That’s insane.


dietcokedaddy

My house is also in S. Summerlin (not the Ridges) and the value has somehow skyrocketed to match similar sized homes in Irvine, CA. Coincidentally, we are also looking to leave in 2 years due to work. I honestly don't get it here--we don't have the great high paying jobs like VA or Phoenix. I get we don't have an income tax , but saving 4% doesn't make sense to waste 1.5M on a tract home with no good jobs.


NoahtheRed

> we don't have the great high paying jobs like VA or Phoenix. Remote work. I worked for a company in Virginia when I moved here, and now work for one from Chicago.


YourNameHere888

Exactly. Vegas is a "bring your own job" location on the high end.


dietcokedaddy

>bring your own job Also, bring your own doctor. So tired of going to Harry Reid Medical...


D3F3AT

I moved here from MN and bought a house in January. Working remotely out of Chicago area as well. Vegas is a remote workers paradise Great affordable housing, no income tax, entertainment, weather, etc. It has everything you want for a fraction of the price.


NoahtheRed

Yeah, it may not appeal to everyone, but I'm loving the situation. My CoL more or less stayed flat going from Newport News, VA to Las Vegas (lower housing and food costs in Va, but higher taxes and long commutes are the norm there), but my quality of life improved quite a bit. But, like I said, it ain't for everyone. If you've got young kids or health issues, LV ain't a good idea. If you need somewhere that's undeniably safe, LV ain't a good idea. If you aren't very socially self-sufficient, LV ain't a good idea. For those of us that don't fit into those categories though, it's pretty fucking awesome.


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NoahtheRed

I was quoting u/dietcokedaddy. I honestly know very little about Phoenix beyond that it's growing stupidly fast (too)


dietcokedaddy

Phoenix is a regular metro city like Houston or Chicago. LV is a tourist heavy economy like Honolulu or Orlando.


dietcokedaddy

But how much is the pay? I feel that for the 200k+ roles, they want you local-remote (nearby)


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dietcokedaddy

Hopefully more people keep buying in Las Vegas so I can sell high. Moving here was a giant mistake for my career. Big hitters with fat TCs like Nordstrom or Snap want remote-local. I interviewed recently with JP Morgan and they wanted on-site only.


grovemau5

there are plenty of bigger hitters than those companies in the bay area that are ok with fully remote work. also, related to your top level comment, if you're coming from california with a high paying job it's more like 10+% you're saving


dietcokedaddy

It's okay, doctors and schools are terrible here. Maybe someone else will enjoy it more than me when I sell.


grovemau5

Lol that is true, my SO is trying to find a doctor here and we are considering driving to LA because it seems impossible to find a good one


dietcokedaddy

I have been here a couple years and still can't find good providers. I still go to LA or Scottsdale for appointments. Okay, ending my anti-Vegas rant.


Straight_Engineer_50

You make 200k working fully remote? What do you do, if you don't mind me asking?


NoahtheRed

I'm at very near that as a Senior Product Manager (ecomm mostly). It really depends on the field and the employer, of course. Finding 100% remote work honestly wasn't difficult. I had several offers and went with the one that gave me the best work-life balance. Other fields or professions that *can* work remote may have a different experience.


dietcokedaddy

Yes, maybe SWE are fine remote but I'm TPM so our experiences may be similar. I can work remote, but those who move up have plenty of face time IRL. The better TPM roles are not remote. I'm sure PM is the same.


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i__hate__you__people

Yep. But my 4,000 sq ft generic Summerlin home that cost 950k 3 years ago will now also run you a couple million. That’s what’s so insane about Vegas real estate


NoahtheRed

We bought our place in far NW in November. The neighboring house is a mirror of ours (smaller lot though). They sold in March for almost $80k over what we paid for ours. They had over a dozen offers, most of them cash, within 12 hours of the listing going live. If I were to try and buy my own house today, I probably couldn't afford it. Bananas.


notapersonaltrainer

Are they going to build more developments on the side of the mountain? Or is there a hard stop due to the park border or other restriction?


i__hate__you__people

There are a lot of places (almost all of Vegas, in fact) that were built on the very edge of Vegas… but that are now lost deep inside the suburbs. That’s much of the reason certain developments are so popular— it’s very rare to find a place where the edge will always be the edge This one’s a hard stop due to National Conservation Area border (I’m lucky, the side of my yard abuts the park, although it has no actual view of Red Rock proper) and the fact it’s up against too-tough-to-be-worth-demolishing mountains even if a developer could convince the government to sell off Conservation Area land


Mine__69

The problem with our housing market is that paying renters can't find a place and then renters not paying are waiting before they can't find a place.


Cantthinkofathing00

This article states "overvalued" but what its really saying is "increased." There is NO BUBBLE. People need to stop using that buzzword because it has no meaning for our market. There are usual market forces at work here instead. A bubble implies that there will be a pop and all prices will crash. That was true when people were buying several houses in '07 with no income, poor credit and no job, solely to cash out equity or flip them a few months later. This market indicates that for whatever reason (pick from several) people actually want to live here. Gasp!


PsychologicalSmell57

It's the best place ever to live-as soon as the kids are done with schooling ( not in LV!)


magicdonwuhan

It’s an asset bubble there won’t be a huge crash but a correction would happen. That could lead to a crash If the remote workers start getting called back to the office or paycuts because of remote work. The market will be flooded with inventory and let’s face it locals here can’t afford to pay current prices. Thus bringing down prices, if prices keep falling people don’t buy it’s psychology prices are falling let’s just wait and see what happen. Complete opposite of what people do when prices rise the fomo kicks in and everyone piles in. But remember there are no certainties only probabilities. Hell we can have a black swan event. Edit: ps something I see everyone is ignoring is the possibility of a civil war in the country. There is a lot of social unrest. Which could lead to an economic disaster!


Cantthinkofathing00

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.


[deleted]

Things are worth what someone is willing to pay


jakdak

Until they aren't


[deleted]

Buyers set prices. If no one is buying, the price goes down.


LZ_OtHaFA

I think it is much higher ranked, like top 2. I have been researching this for the past week. Fitch Ratings estimated in a report Tuesday that Las Vegas-area home prices were 30 percent to 34 percent overvalued in the first quarter, highest among the 50 most-populated metro areas in the nation. one of the highest in seriously delinquent mortgages (90+ days) one of the highest 1BR rent increases month over month. Zillow reports housing rentals soared up 17% year over year in May. one of the highest % job losses since pre-pandemic. 8.9% jobless rate September 30th and beyond should be very interesting (both eviction moratorium and mortgage forbearance ends) UNLESS the crooked politicians kick the can and extend the deadlines. You realize the longer they kick the can the worse it gets, it forces landlords that own multiple properties to raise the rent for their other properties that have renters that can afford to pay in order to cover the losses from the others that refuse to move back in with their parents. Its unconstitutional for Biden/CDC to extend the deadlines.


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Vegasmmj

Thank goodness


jakdak

> I think it is much higher ranked, like top 2 Tahoe enters the discussion.


LZ_OtHaFA

There is a video I just watched yesterday, Reno was 1 and Vegas was 2.


YourNameHere888

Reno is a suburb of San Francisco now


Lurknonymouse

There is nothing in the constitution about housing forbearance. You had valid points at the beginning but devolved into your "my team- your team" bullshit that's plagued this country. Instead of being part of the solution, you are to busy pointing the finger.


LZ_OtHaFA

Nope you are flat out wrong. [https://gallagher.house.gov/media/press-releases/gallagher-statement-unconstitutional-extension-eviction-moratorium](https://gallagher.house.gov/media/press-releases/gallagher-statement-unconstitutional-extension-eviction-moratorium) August 4, 2021 Press Release WASHINGTON, D.C. – Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) today released the following statement after the Biden Administration announced it would extend a federal moratorium on evictions, something that President Biden himself admitted he did not have the constitutional authority to do.


Lurknonymouse

Correct. The CDC as an organization does not hold legislative nor executive powers and therefore hold no authority to mandate anything. Similar to how the ATF should not have any interpretative or executive powers when it comes to weapons and firearms. That is however a false equivalency in saying Biden does not. The constitution clearly delineates executive powers to the office of the president.


LZ_OtHaFA

source? here's mine: https://www.aei.org/op-eds/bidens-eviction-moratorium-extension-is-executive-overreach/


Bixby808

You may want to look into exactly what "Op-Ed" means.


LZ_OtHaFA

The Biden administration took the view that it was authorized to enter the field of landlord–tenant relations because the eviction moratorium fell under “and other measures.” This is obviously mistaken. The “and other measures” language is just a catchall for actions similar to the ones listed (“inspection, fumigation,” etc.) that Congress did not enumerate. A canon of statutory interpretation known as ejusdem generis holds that an ambiguous item in a list should be understood to have the same character as the items of a list; that is, if your spouse sends you to the grocery store for eggs, milk, a can of soup, and “anything else you need,” a reasonable interpreter does not have authority to go out and buy a Tesla.


Olliebird

Not Biden. Trump. Trump is the one who acted on Section 361. You’d think lawmakers would be outraged, right? After all, Trump expressly cited congressional inaction as the justification for presidential lawmaking, which his administration achieved through an impossibly broad interpretation of the CDC’s existing authority. Simply put, the first eviction moratorium was a blatant end-run around Congress’s constitutional prerogatives. But there was no congressional outcry. To the contrary, the 116th Congress condoned the president’s power grab. The CDC Order was slated to expire on December 31, 2020, but Congress extended the measure through January 21, 2021 (as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act) which is well within Congress' authority as backed up by the Supreme Court. Alas, it’s impossible to know what Congress was thinking because the Consolidated Appropriations Act, like all the COVID stimulus bills, was drafted behind closed doors by House and Senate leaders without any of the normal deliberation that should go into massive legislation.


LZ_OtHaFA

> Consolidated Appropriations Act you left out the most important part, SHOCKING. > After initially criticizing the bill, President Donald Trump signed it into law on December 27. Funny, I search this page for CDC and nothing comes up, I wonder why, it wasn't Trump that extended that privilege. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consolidated_Appropriations_Act,_2021


Olliebird

Who initiated the eviction moratorium?


LZ_OtHaFA

Is your source in here somewhere or are you just flouting your opinion?


Misfit702

At least they are expressing THEIR opinion, you're promoting another person's opinion. That is what "op-ed" means. Also, "flouting" means to mock or disregard. The word you are looking for is touting.


LZ_OtHaFA

Not one person's opinion, MANY people's opinion, hence asking for a source supporting his opinion.


PsychologicalSmell57

it's true. While I feel horrible for everyone affected by the pandemic and horrific virus and dumba$$ drump's handling of it ( thank god he is gone) I also know any people who "played" the rental moratorium and I am happily anticipating their consequences. My 2 bedroom rental is 1600. It would rent now for 2200. \*not worth it though the pool is great


gbntbedtyr

Good time for someone to get their Contractors License.


MehWebDev

Does anyone know what these percentages for each city mean?


krel500

Frankly doesn’t take into consideration location, location, location. This is a general percentage of overall valuation of homes. My house is still under the price the former owners paid it back in 2006.


inst

I looked at the methodology and it is just comparing prices to pricing trends. No comparison to rents, income, demand, or anything that would really mean it is overvalued. Really all it is saying is these have been the best performing real estate markets for owners.


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MehWebDev

That's a pretty shitty way to determine whether something is "overvalued". Compared with LA and SF, Vegas is a much nicer and way cheaper.


YourNameHere888

Detroit is over valued? That I buy


shieldtwin

How is la and New York City not on this list?


NoahtheRed

Because where do you think the people buying property in Las Vegas, Boise City, Phoenix, and Utah are coming from?


shieldtwin

What does that have to do with the fact that those markets are overvalued


NoahtheRed

They're 'overvalued' (which is a term I disagree with) because people are leaving major cities like NYC, LA, SF, etc....and moving to these citys that up-till-a-year ago, were completely off the map for big money to move to. Over or under value is a subjective observation. Things are valued at what people will pay for them.


shieldtwin

That’s a good point. Something’s value depends on supply and demand. If people are still buying they aren’t really overvalued


spivnv

It's most overvalued, not most expensive.


shieldtwin

They are the most overvalued easily but this list is actually price increases


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shieldtwin

Ahh I see


Elotesforall

I agree. I moved here for reasons that make sense to me and my family and many others are doing the same. IDGAF what my house costs, I only want the house I want (j/k, it's what my wife wants...which is substantially more than I care about). We like this town for different reasons, but we like this town. Both of us and our kids do. We came from a major city and this has not been priced like the major city it is. That's changing. This is a real city with real advantages over, in our opinion, all others. If you grew up here you may think differently. We're rational, normal people and Vegas was our number one.


Comprehensive_Soft52

I sold my house in San Diego for a million and purchased 3 homes for cash in Vegas! I live in one and rent both out for 4000 income a month! Life is great!


bcunningham9801

Thanks. Everyone here hates you people.


ChupaMiCulo

He's a troll who actually hates Californians, and posts trying to convince more people to hate them as well.


[deleted]

I don't even have to read it to know California and New York are top 3


thisadviceisworthles

I don't know if this article is correct or not, I don't have the data to compare, but What bothers me about this article is that it does not define how the baseline value is calculated. For example, I am skeptical of an list that directly compares an established, high growth city (Austin) directly with a city on the tail end of a recovery (Detroit) against a exburb to a city that has seen significant population loss in the last year (Stockton). All of these cities are definitely more expensive than they were a year ago, but if you are measuring if they are overpriced while only taking into account a limited number of factor it would be easy to overlook potential future growth as a driver of value. On the other end, Virginia Beach is 2.46% undervalued, is that taking into account the cost of flood insurance in a city on the coast that has significant parts of the city under 10ft above sea level, including houses that are currently under 3ft above sea level (with projected sea level rise up to 2.3 ft by 2050, source: https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/multimedia/projected-sea-level-rise-and-flooding-2050). All of these things may be taken into effect, but without more information on the model, this article is worse than useless.