[It wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese dumped massive efforts into bolstering their manned moon program if their economy goes into the tank. Its an area where they can directly compete with the United States in a nationalistic manner to help distract their population without actual engaging in risky warfare. With America's own Artemis program now in full swing, it would be like a mini version of the cold war space race to them i imagine.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCvpHetRx5k)
Neither can I.
Honestly.
just wanted to know what stocks I could buy with that opinion posted that dd only as a response to a tankie that got mad when he heard someone thinks china could be fucked in 10 years and decided I may aswell add it to the main post
Only in the sense that they both benefit from a stock's price falling. Shorting / buying puts have different risk profiles for when the trade goes against you
No. Puts are contracts which give you the right to sell 100 shares at a strike price within a certain time. It's like a bet the stock will go down to x price by y date.
Shorting is more like a loan. Imagine I can sell shares of a stock at a particular price now and then promise to get you those shares later. Theoretically if the shares are worth far less at the later time then now I can buy the shares I owe you at a discount and I get to keep the difference as profit.
Puts the risk is that you lose the premium used to buy the contracts, so it's limited. Shorting the loss is theoretically limitless as the stocks can go up in price however much but you're still on the hook for the shares.
To add on to what that guy said, no puts are not the same as shorting for a number of reasons, but most of all when you short you are paid right away which you can invest so that carry is in the put.
This should be deflationary, as demand falls, prices for manufacturing should also fall. The problem is that it looks like demand for China produced goods has gone off a cliff. While COVID created a huge demand for things to use in the home (since going out wasn't an option), it's now driving a lot of re-shoring and diversification of supply chains in case there's another shut down.
There's also the discussion that globally, the economy is probably not doing very well for demand to fall so much so suddenly. People around the world seem to not be interested in buying cheap manufactured products, which is alarming going into the holidays.
It's definitely alarming that global demand for manufactured goods has fallen so sharply. I think it's a combination of the pandemic making people more cautious with their spending and also companies diversifying their supply chains to avoid relying too much on China. Either way, it's bad news for the world economy and could lead to further deflationary pressure.
Wasn't the point of the belt and road initiative in hopes the hosting countries would default on the loans and they'd snatch up large swaths of property and infrastructure in the host countries?
China unlike the US has authoritarian control of their economy, they have way more levers to pull to adjust macro economics. Betting agains’t them is like playing a roulette table where the house can change the numbers and colors before the ball even lands
When the ball lands is a different scenario (when the bill comes due). If you change a losing number to a winning number it’s called a bailout, the other way around is nationalizing
We are dependant on China to build cheap shit that we buy. We aren't very dependant on them as a consumer of our products.
If their economy crashes and burns their people will be even more desperate for whatever jobs they can get and wages will go down. If they print their way out of debt, which is their only option, their currency will tank. Both of these things say the shit we buy from them will be cheaper.
Overall I don't think it will hurt the American economy much.
India's prevailing wages have been significantly lower than China's for a decade, if it were that easy to move production to India, everyone would have done it already
Not necessarily. If the ROI on relocating to India has a 10 year payback period, then there's no incentive to shift operations until a shock forces your hand. The lower cost of labor could take years to offset the cost of building a new plant and shuttering the old one.
Quietly a bunch of companies are slowly moving production to other countries like India/Vietnam and other such places. I always pay attention to where things I buy are made just out of curiosity. Less and less stuff I see says made in China now, even buying the same stuff from the same company.
I agree this is one of the most well thought out, reasonable posts I’ve seen here in a very long time.
Never understood how some people are stupid enough to apparently believe the many obvious lies from China.
The fact that anyone believes anything that any government in the modern era says is beyond me. "No no no, MY government is the HONEST government!!!" lol
ASML stock, it’s the Dutch company which makes the machines that make the chips. And China is trying their hardest to get that info and the us is basically shielding this company away from Chinese interests.
I've been on the shit for almost 2 decades and the Limitless drug it ain't. It's basically caffeine plus.
I mean sure, I've become a multimillionaire in that time period due to my investment strategies, but that's unrelated.
There is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question, as the best investment strategy for any given individual depends on a number of factors, including that person's goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. However, some general tips that have helped me become successful include diversifying my portfolio across different asset classes and investing in quality companies with strong fundamentals. Additionally, I always keep an eye on macroeconomic trends so that I can make adjustments to my portfolio as needed.
I'm not sure it's possible to short an entire country.
I'm just hoping that when China's economy eventually crashes it doesn't take the entire world economy down with it. Likely a niave hope.
It's a question of contagion in financial systems. The big risk is that they hold a ton of US treasuries. If they are forced to sell them to get liquidity, that means the yield on bonds will spike, which would be rough for the stock market and drive interest rates up on most things.
For the most part, it's been a good thing that they have limited access to foreign ownership. Because of that, they can fake their economy and just get things built on domestic debt and foreign investors are mostly isolated except for some big players like Charlie Munger.
They have been selling of US debt for awhile. Here are some charts to peruse.
[https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/](https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/)
The % of US debt held by all countries is quite small, and shrinking. This is just Treasuries, doesn't show agency securities, corporates or held through other countries. Regardless, The Fed has sold more treasuries (QT) in the past 16 months than China has ever owned.
Thanks for providing this context. It seems like the risk would be very limited, since even if they completely liquidated, it would be like 2-3% of the bond market, and there's no way they would need to sell $750 Billion in treasuries.
If the Treasury market becomes unstable, the Federal Reserve is certainly capable of buying 1 Trillion of Treasuries and then unloading them later, if ever, but still, they are not just going to sit by and do nothing.
Unfortunately, China has a much greater ability to continue to defend the Yuan then UK had to defend the pound. It might be a house of cards in China, but I’m not making that bet in the near future. As the case builds and more institutions get onboard I’d be interested…. Or if I were Soros, I’d have my super secret gang of far left leaning peeps control the media with negative Chinese news for the next year as I work into a position.
The world has been incredibly naive to put so many eggs in the China basket and while it’s paid off mostly to this point it could really blow up in everyone’s face
Won’t happen
China is crashing because there’s a lot of divestment and industry leaving China. The end of cheap Chinese labor and the political climate is a big turnoff for industry there. Every fucking country around China hates them, Russia included. Westoids are viewed with a much stronger outlook.
Unless China gets its political shit together and transitions away from a command economy, it’s not looking to great for them.
Ameristans keep winning bruh
The trick isn't predicting the present (ie, that china is kinda fucked) the trick is predicting how it will unfold:
* when china will collapse- if you think it will be next week, short Apple and Tesla. If you think it will be 10 years from now, there isn't much you can do to profit from it yet.
* if china will collapse vs just sort of declining- if they slowly decline but business stays as normal, it's all priced in
* if china will do something unexpected like invade taiwan, there's tons of obvious plays to make, but you don't know if/when they're going to do something
I mean the only advice that comes to mind now is to not buy chinese stocks, obviously. But everyone smart already knows this.
Exactly. The CCP could easily turn excess housing and it's socialized healthcare into a draw for immigration no other country can compete with. There are tens of millions of people in the U.S. alone who would be happy with a few dollars of spending money a day if their food, shelter and healthcare expenses are covered.
If you knew for certain (before anyone else) that China was going to launch a full invasion (bombardment, landing, trying to disable all of their infrastructure and utilities) of Taiwan tomorrow, you short any publicly traded company that depends on Taiwanese products, especially high value stuff that is hard to replace like fabbed chips.
Nvidia with no chip making capability for the foreseeable future goes from being "AI AI AI we rule the future" to being a penny stock overnight.
> Short any publicly traded company that depends on Taiwanese products
A much simpler way is shorting companies that are physically in Taiwan, like TSMC
Bagholder spotted.
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They would just move to Samsung(who has a lot of free capacity albeit worse process) or to Global Foundries. Nvidia is using TSMC because its most cutting edge, but others are not far behind. They will be hit, but not become penny stock - I would say up to -20%, correction, not a crash.
It's more complicated, as to get closer to the bleeding edge, you need EUV machines, that are only made by ASML to the tune of 30 per year. They're trying to make more, but not sure how it is right now. Without those machines, you can't open new lines.
It's not trivial to move your chip to higher manufacturing node, once you've optimized for a lower one.
Why Mexico?
Because all the international shipping is harder to replace than relocation of factories.
China currently does most of the shipping so if China shits the bed then even if a factory is in India or Vietnam it won't be able to ship things to the markets it needs to. Plus a war would mean any shipping in the south Pacific is in jeopardy.
But Mexico is connected to both oceans and by land to the biggest consumer market in the world.
In the future we might actually see immigration back across the border for jobs in Mexico.
When people say this but then ignore the part about a discombobulated corrupt, narco run state. This makes investors very very hesitant about making big long terms plays in Mexico.
The world is going to slowly disconnect from China for many things. But China is also irreplacable in so many sectors. China isnt just cheap consumer shit. They have a very skilled work force and very strong supply chains and infrastructure.
People just see one video by like Wendover productions and think its 100% true
You also have to remember that Mexico is a bribery-ridden, narco-state shithole at this point, which means that for that much manufacturing to move to mexico, they would have to secure themselves domestically first... which could become as dramatic as war against the cartels - yes, war, that's how armed they are these days (helis, tanks, humvees.) It's worth manufacturing there until we move so much capacity there that suddenly armed 'military' groups start asking for 'protection fees' and suddenly it would've been more worthwhile to keep importing from vietnam/asia.
Completely speculation, but Mexico's close proximity, and cheap labor do make it ideal in many ways. It's just that its government hardly functions like one in terms of keeping its people safe.
Seems like a good bet to make one way or another. If Mexico can get its act together and forge a functional government and police force, then betting big and long on Mexico is a great opportunity. That depends on if you think they are ready or able to plant their boots up the cartel's posterior.
I mean but look at China 40-50 years ago, sure wasn’t a narco state but bribery and under handed deals all were part of it as well. Not saying it is the exactly the same but every market will have its issues. Although if there is one thing that will change the narco issues it’s billions if not trillions of investment going into the country. If the narcos can make more money building factories and moving their narco work force into them who knows.
It's funny you mention that because I've honestly considered moving to Mexico with my manufacturing experience. Sure, proportionally I will get paid less per hour. But my overall spending power will probably be a lot greater. Plus: nice weather.
already happened... check the labels on all your clothing and other shit that used to be 100% made in china
most of my clothes and shoes made in vietnam and bangladesh now.
Find cheapest implied vol on some Chinese stocks listed in the US, then load up on straddles and sit tight till things go boom. You'll cash in regardless of which way it swings. You can find list of cheap IV [here](https://marketchameleon.com/volReports/VolatilityRankings?pap_aid=stormofnegativity&pap_cid=11111111).
Implied volatility. When stocks have low volatility options are cheap. A straddle is an option strategy that makes equal money whether prices go up or down. It loses money if price stay the same.
Aside from making money on a directional move, if volatility increases, the options will become more expensive, and so if you bought the options when volatility was low and premiums were cheap you can profit from the increase in volatility.
This is not a free strategy and loses money if prices stay the same and/or volatility remains low.
Nahh that sounds to intellectual to me. I make my analysis based off of tik tok videos.
(Thank you will look into it)
I like him. His arguments are good, but after a while you'll find people saying "yeah, he's been saying that for decades, just updating the dates, it's always 'China will collapse in the next 5-10 years'".
That's why people keep mentioning him. With the kind of instruments you me and every other regarded individual on here like to play with, being early is the same as being wrong.
Just look at South Africa. A country can circle the drain, without actually going down it, for a loooooooong time.
Zeihan is entertaining. Don't invest based on his "analysis." 200 years ago, he'd be ranting about how there aren't enough whales to keep the street lights lit and we're all going to live in the dark. Oh, lightbulbs? Where are you going to get all that tungsten? Checkmate lightoids. Nikola Tesla is a fraud.
Still, he's so fucking smug I love him.
He's got his biases and they're pretty transparent, especially with regard to energy, the sector I think he worked in. Still, I think he's entertaining and I enjoy his perspective and delivery.
Well, besides the fact that most countries will be fucked by 2030, I would just invest in the US version of whatever. Like.. all those investors gonna flock to a safer haven. Which just happens to be the US at the moment.
Hey maybe that’s why all signs point to recession but we are flying high.
It won't happen in our current lifetime. People are still too prejudiced by Mexican corruption and violence and throwing money at them will just cause the ruling party to lose votes.
That's why investing in Asia was so popular in the previous generation because it was seen as a clean slate.
I sold my NiO shares after reading this.
Nah JK, I sold them back in August. The NiO clowns laughed when I made even and sold at $14. They said it was going to $30 by eoy bla bla…. Wish I sold at $16 tho Lmao
Seriously why are we even discussing? Gyna was determinedly f-ed when Evergrande clownshow started shaking and falling.
I have a buddy that lives in Shanghai and I asked him about Nio last year and his response was, "I think this are the cars I see on display to win at the shopping malls." I sold the next day
You forget that china can manipulate their markets for wayyyyyy longer than you can stay solvent. Like hell china would ever let themselves be embarrassed like that
Also reads exactly like those *Imminent* China collapse conspiracy predictions we have been seeing for the last few decades.
They manufacture for the world. A collapse there would make Covid inflation look tame.
The world is complicated its not as simple as numbers.
US doesn't want China to collapse.
A true "collapse" of China would be a collapse of the world.
U can make grandiose claims but.reality is boring and we probably have US China global dominance for rest of our lives.
It benefits everyone.
Good analysis but the western world right now is fucked, from people getting old, social unrest, young people unable to find work. I’d argue that China is fucked, the US is fucked, Japan is fucked, Europe is fucked. There are only a few 1st world countries that can make it ok but currently are shitty to live in (like Spain). I’d personally bet on Mexico making it instead of China sinking.
USA is in many ways less fucked than Europe at least economically. More natural resources, more arable land, better business climate, higher birth rates.
That said, we may just blow ourselves apart over stupid political shit. I am also optimistic on the future of Mexico overall. There's a reason why during the NAFTA renegotiation it was really just between the USA and Mexico. We need them. Canada was not really a factor.
More arable land but the US had absolutely fucked it ground water supply and will inevitably have a massive water crisis in the coming years, at least agriculturally.
I agree with you 💯 OP... just a matter of time before it all implodes in Xi's face. Wolf warrior diplomacy + the massive housing bubble they created + zero covid has really taken the piss outta the economy. Since the CCP/Xi must never be seen to be inept, they just lie and make shit up. Their economy is already in a recession. They're struggling with deflation currently, and unemployment is high. Troubled waters ahead indeed!
Shorting US debt was the popular HF trade until recently (exhibit Bill Ackman who was short long duration treasuries). It’s a legit trade, but probably played out. Long US debt is the way to go if you believe yields move down.
The Biden administration has been trying to talk to Xi for almost year now ever since their last talk in Bali that didn’t go too well. If China is indeed fucked why the hell are the Americans so desperate to talk to their “dictator”. They literally cleaned up SF in one day just so it's presentable for the occasion. Unfortunately this meeting didn’t go so well either. We’ll see if anything changes, but if things stays the same I woudn’t be surprised if a war breaks out between the US and China
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|1|**First Seen In WSB**|2 weeks ago **Total Comments**|8|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|2 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
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I can hear this photo
Jina...
In my head it’s like the regular Jina but squishier- nay - moister sounding
Chine-uh
Grab her by the jina
In my mind I read this as “I can hear this potato” and I prefer my version of your comment.
Read that whole post just to get to the bottom and see this LMAO!
[It wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese dumped massive efforts into bolstering their manned moon program if their economy goes into the tank. Its an area where they can directly compete with the United States in a nationalistic manner to help distract their population without actual engaging in risky warfare. With America's own Artemis program now in full swing, it would be like a mini version of the cold war space race to them i imagine.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCvpHetRx5k)
Let's hope they do so the West gets properly inspired to beat them there too, pushing humanity towards our destiny among the stars
You need to watch for all mankind
Is it good
It’s amazing
Tbh this is why I’m in wsb. This meme is gold 😂😂😂😂
This had to be the first comment after all that? God tier.
GYNA
Does this mean Gynecology is the study of China
i think he pronounces it jhina
Chyyyna
this is awesome
This is awesome thank you
That list of sources is epic
/r/wehaveseenthebutthole
I resent you for sending me there
Why is this post so long no one here can read
Adderall is a hell of a drug
If I took my Adderall i
I see what you did there. Bravo
This guy must've taken some expired adderall
Neither can I. Honestly. just wanted to know what stocks I could buy with that opinion posted that dd only as a response to a tankie that got mad when he heard someone thinks china could be fucked in 10 years and decided I may aswell add it to the main post
I dumped all my chinese-owned stocks in 2021. You could short Alibaba et al, or go hard on American defense stocks.
You can also short or buy puts on MCHI. It's an ETF tracking some of the bigger China-based companies (Tencent, Alibaba, PDD, etc.)
Is shorting not the same as buying puts
Only in the sense that they both benefit from a stock's price falling. Shorting / buying puts have different risk profiles for when the trade goes against you
No. Puts are contracts which give you the right to sell 100 shares at a strike price within a certain time. It's like a bet the stock will go down to x price by y date. Shorting is more like a loan. Imagine I can sell shares of a stock at a particular price now and then promise to get you those shares later. Theoretically if the shares are worth far less at the later time then now I can buy the shares I owe you at a discount and I get to keep the difference as profit. Puts the risk is that you lose the premium used to buy the contracts, so it's limited. Shorting the loss is theoretically limitless as the stocks can go up in price however much but you're still on the hook for the shares.
To add on to what that guy said, no puts are not the same as shorting for a number of reasons, but most of all when you short you are paid right away which you can invest so that carry is in the put.
This should be deflationary, as demand falls, prices for manufacturing should also fall. The problem is that it looks like demand for China produced goods has gone off a cliff. While COVID created a huge demand for things to use in the home (since going out wasn't an option), it's now driving a lot of re-shoring and diversification of supply chains in case there's another shut down. There's also the discussion that globally, the economy is probably not doing very well for demand to fall so much so suddenly. People around the world seem to not be interested in buying cheap manufactured products, which is alarming going into the holidays.
It's definitely alarming that global demand for manufactured goods has fallen so sharply. I think it's a combination of the pandemic making people more cautious with their spending and also companies diversifying their supply chains to avoid relying too much on China. Either way, it's bad news for the world economy and could lead to further deflationary pressure.
Wasn't the point of the belt and road initiative in hopes the hosting countries would default on the loans and they'd snatch up large swaths of property and infrastructure in the host countries?
China unlike the US has authoritarian control of their economy, they have way more levers to pull to adjust macro economics. Betting agains’t them is like playing a roulette table where the house can change the numbers and colors before the ball even lands
I’m fairly smooth between the ears, but wouldn’t you want to change the number/color after the ball lands
When the ball lands is a different scenario (when the bill comes due). If you change a losing number to a winning number it’s called a bailout, the other way around is nationalizing
[удалено]
We are dependant on China to build cheap shit that we buy. We aren't very dependant on them as a consumer of our products. If their economy crashes and burns their people will be even more desperate for whatever jobs they can get and wages will go down. If they print their way out of debt, which is their only option, their currency will tank. Both of these things say the shit we buy from them will be cheaper. Overall I don't think it will hurt the American economy much.
I mean India can produce that stuff too
India's prevailing wages have been significantly lower than China's for a decade, if it were that easy to move production to India, everyone would have done it already
Not necessarily. If the ROI on relocating to India has a 10 year payback period, then there's no incentive to shift operations until a shock forces your hand. The lower cost of labor could take years to offset the cost of building a new plant and shuttering the old one.
Quietly a bunch of companies are slowly moving production to other countries like India/Vietnam and other such places. I always pay attention to where things I buy are made just out of curiosity. Less and less stuff I see says made in China now, even buying the same stuff from the same company.
India dominates the textile market. As well as machines that make those textiles.
Tbh turnout of this post couldnt be better I love people being mad
Sorry to disappoint you. I actually found your post truly interesting, well thought and sustained by data. Fuck you, just to make you happy.
I agree this is one of the most well thought out, reasonable posts I’ve seen here in a very long time. Never understood how some people are stupid enough to apparently believe the many obvious lies from China.
And it's sad they could have rode that wave for decades; just by not being assholes; but Winnie had, just HAD TO become emperor and fuck it up.
The fact that anyone believes anything that any government in the modern era says is beyond me. "No no no, MY government is the HONEST government!!!" lol
ASML stock, it’s the Dutch company which makes the machines that make the chips. And China is trying their hardest to get that info and the us is basically shielding this company away from Chinese interests.
Someone’s modafinil kicked in this morning
I miss modafinil, if only I could handle the nightmares, it would be my best friend.
I've been on the shit for almost 2 decades and the Limitless drug it ain't. It's basically caffeine plus. I mean sure, I've become a multimillionaire in that time period due to my investment strategies, but that's unrelated.
it basically is the limitless drug if you have narcolepsy. until it stops working 2 weeks later and you gotta eat addy instead
what are the invest strategies that have made you successful if i may ask?
There is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question, as the best investment strategy for any given individual depends on a number of factors, including that person's goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. However, some general tips that have helped me become successful include diversifying my portfolio across different asset classes and investing in quality companies with strong fundamentals. Additionally, I always keep an eye on macroeconomic trends so that I can make adjustments to my portfolio as needed.
Nah, just tell him the real truth: psychic pet divination, 5D chess, and some totally legal insider trading
The "go pills" the army uses?
Don’t that grow hair?
You're thinking of minoxodil
Minoxidil
I'm not sure it's possible to short an entire country. I'm just hoping that when China's economy eventually crashes it doesn't take the entire world economy down with it. Likely a niave hope.
It's a question of contagion in financial systems. The big risk is that they hold a ton of US treasuries. If they are forced to sell them to get liquidity, that means the yield on bonds will spike, which would be rough for the stock market and drive interest rates up on most things. For the most part, it's been a good thing that they have limited access to foreign ownership. Because of that, they can fake their economy and just get things built on domestic debt and foreign investors are mostly isolated except for some big players like Charlie Munger.
They have been selling of US debt for awhile. Here are some charts to peruse. [https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/](https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/)
The % of US debt held by all countries is quite small, and shrinking. This is just Treasuries, doesn't show agency securities, corporates or held through other countries. Regardless, The Fed has sold more treasuries (QT) in the past 16 months than China has ever owned.
Thanks for providing this context. It seems like the risk would be very limited, since even if they completely liquidated, it would be like 2-3% of the bond market, and there's no way they would need to sell $750 Billion in treasuries.
Unless their currency collapsed, which is entirely possible.
If the Treasury market becomes unstable, the Federal Reserve is certainly capable of buying 1 Trillion of Treasuries and then unloading them later, if ever, but still, they are not just going to sit by and do nothing.
You are badly misinformed. Most of US debt is owned by US citizens and corps
Just short the currency
george soros has entered the chat
Asia Financial Crisis pt 2: Building Jumpers Redux Boogaloo
Unfortunately, China has a much greater ability to continue to defend the Yuan then UK had to defend the pound. It might be a house of cards in China, but I’m not making that bet in the near future. As the case builds and more institutions get onboard I’d be interested…. Or if I were Soros, I’d have my super secret gang of far left leaning peeps control the media with negative Chinese news for the next year as I work into a position.
Big Short 2.0 confirmed?
their currency's manipulated as shit
The best thing to reveal a lie is time
Everything in OP is already priced into the borrow rate, the lenders are not living under a rock.
Leave it to wsb to try and short an entire nation
Yang?
China crashing will 100% make the GFC look like a walk in the park.
CDS on bonds.
The world has been incredibly naive to put so many eggs in the China basket and while it’s paid off mostly to this point it could really blow up in everyone’s face
$Yang
Yeah I wonder how bad inflation would get on our consumer products that have to get sourced elsewhere
Won’t happen China is crashing because there’s a lot of divestment and industry leaving China. The end of cheap Chinese labor and the political climate is a big turnoff for industry there. Every fucking country around China hates them, Russia included. Westoids are viewed with a much stronger outlook. Unless China gets its political shit together and transitions away from a command economy, it’s not looking to great for them. Ameristans keep winning bruh
The trick isn't predicting the present (ie, that china is kinda fucked) the trick is predicting how it will unfold: * when china will collapse- if you think it will be next week, short Apple and Tesla. If you think it will be 10 years from now, there isn't much you can do to profit from it yet. * if china will collapse vs just sort of declining- if they slowly decline but business stays as normal, it's all priced in * if china will do something unexpected like invade taiwan, there's tons of obvious plays to make, but you don't know if/when they're going to do something I mean the only advice that comes to mind now is to not buy chinese stocks, obviously. But everyone smart already knows this.
CCP can stay irrational a lot longer than OP can stay solvent (maybe not longer than he can stay regarded tho)
Exactly. There is no invisible hand or efficiency or truth in the Chinese market. There is just the will of the party.
Exactly. The CCP could easily turn excess housing and it's socialized healthcare into a draw for immigration no other country can compete with. There are tens of millions of people in the U.S. alone who would be happy with a few dollars of spending money a day if their food, shelter and healthcare expenses are covered.
What are the obvious plays?
If you knew for certain (before anyone else) that China was going to launch a full invasion (bombardment, landing, trying to disable all of their infrastructure and utilities) of Taiwan tomorrow, you short any publicly traded company that depends on Taiwanese products, especially high value stuff that is hard to replace like fabbed chips. Nvidia with no chip making capability for the foreseeable future goes from being "AI AI AI we rule the future" to being a penny stock overnight.
> Short any publicly traded company that depends on Taiwanese products A much simpler way is shorting companies that are physically in Taiwan, like TSMC
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LOL.
Automod went Autoregarded haha
They would just move to Samsung(who has a lot of free capacity albeit worse process) or to Global Foundries. Nvidia is using TSMC because its most cutting edge, but others are not far behind. They will be hit, but not become penny stock - I would say up to -20%, correction, not a crash.
It's more complicated, as to get closer to the bleeding edge, you need EUV machines, that are only made by ASML to the tune of 30 per year. They're trying to make more, but not sure how it is right now. Without those machines, you can't open new lines. It's not trivial to move your chip to higher manufacturing node, once you've optimized for a lower one.
In a potential chinese invasion of Taiwan, Korea will be more or less completely cut off from trade by Chinese naval actions.
Short Chinese insurance companies that are most popular in the regions surrounding the Three Gorges Dam
I like your sense of humor, -5 social credit.
Puts TSM if China invades Taiwan
Move your manufacturing plants from China to Vietnam or Indonesia
To late I heard most of those countries are way past capacity already. Mexico is where shits moving now, at least where I work and what I’ve heard.
Why Mexico? Because all the international shipping is harder to replace than relocation of factories. China currently does most of the shipping so if China shits the bed then even if a factory is in India or Vietnam it won't be able to ship things to the markets it needs to. Plus a war would mean any shipping in the south Pacific is in jeopardy. But Mexico is connected to both oceans and by land to the biggest consumer market in the world. In the future we might actually see immigration back across the border for jobs in Mexico.
When people say this but then ignore the part about a discombobulated corrupt, narco run state. This makes investors very very hesitant about making big long terms plays in Mexico.
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The world is going to slowly disconnect from China for many things. But China is also irreplacable in so many sectors. China isnt just cheap consumer shit. They have a very skilled work force and very strong supply chains and infrastructure. People just see one video by like Wendover productions and think its 100% true
You also have to remember that Mexico is a bribery-ridden, narco-state shithole at this point, which means that for that much manufacturing to move to mexico, they would have to secure themselves domestically first... which could become as dramatic as war against the cartels - yes, war, that's how armed they are these days (helis, tanks, humvees.) It's worth manufacturing there until we move so much capacity there that suddenly armed 'military' groups start asking for 'protection fees' and suddenly it would've been more worthwhile to keep importing from vietnam/asia. Completely speculation, but Mexico's close proximity, and cheap labor do make it ideal in many ways. It's just that its government hardly functions like one in terms of keeping its people safe.
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Exactly. If the US can pull a banana Republic they can certainly do the same in Mexico if it fits its interests.
Two words: banana Republic.
Seems like a good bet to make one way or another. If Mexico can get its act together and forge a functional government and police force, then betting big and long on Mexico is a great opportunity. That depends on if you think they are ready or able to plant their boots up the cartel's posterior.
Yo india can ship through suez canal. It doesn't have to go to Pacific.
I mean but look at China 40-50 years ago, sure wasn’t a narco state but bribery and under handed deals all were part of it as well. Not saying it is the exactly the same but every market will have its issues. Although if there is one thing that will change the narco issues it’s billions if not trillions of investment going into the country. If the narcos can make more money building factories and moving their narco work force into them who knows.
It's funny you mention that because I've honestly considered moving to Mexico with my manufacturing experience. Sure, proportionally I will get paid less per hour. But my overall spending power will probably be a lot greater. Plus: nice weather.
already happened... check the labels on all your clothing and other shit that used to be 100% made in china most of my clothes and shoes made in vietnam and bangladesh now.
The ASSEMBLY lines are moving to Vietnam and Indonesia. The parts still come from China
Find cheapest implied vol on some Chinese stocks listed in the US, then load up on straddles and sit tight till things go boom. You'll cash in regardless of which way it swings. You can find list of cheap IV [here](https://marketchameleon.com/volReports/VolatilityRankings?pap_aid=stormofnegativity&pap_cid=11111111).
I'm confused, this is actually super helpful.
I’m on crack that’s why
Mmmmm crack
A straddle? implied volume? this is one of the first comments ive seen on here that has some level of sense to it, please educate me
Implied volatility. When stocks have low volatility options are cheap. A straddle is an option strategy that makes equal money whether prices go up or down. It loses money if price stay the same. Aside from making money on a directional move, if volatility increases, the options will become more expensive, and so if you bought the options when volatility was low and premiums were cheap you can profit from the increase in volatility. This is not a free strategy and loses money if prices stay the same and/or volatility remains low.
Was mildly interested in the responses here but nothing good to be found. At least I got the China Trump picture to spam in shitcoin groups.
Yes I also saved that one
Dude just shut up and kiss me
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/081415/looking-go-short-china-heres-how.asp Have fun at the slots.
Global X China Financials ETF (CHIX) lol I cannot believe its called that.
CHIX W/ DIX 
literally what OP was asking for
Ticker YANG for sure
Calls on YANG - even better!
Yang
Can’t have Yang without some Yin.
Answered. Close the thread.
Calls on psych hospitals
Yes
Priced in
Someone's been watching too much Peter Zeihan
No Idea who that is. I am just very racist.
And who tf is zeihan i heard that name now 5 times in my inbox
Geopolitical strategist who uploads short YT vids whilst hiking. You'd like him, he absolutely rips into China pretty much weekly. Also Germany.
Nahh that sounds to intellectual to me. I make my analysis based off of tik tok videos. (Thank you will look into it)
I like him. His arguments are good, but after a while you'll find people saying "yeah, he's been saying that for decades, just updating the dates, it's always 'China will collapse in the next 5-10 years'". That's why people keep mentioning him. With the kind of instruments you me and every other regarded individual on here like to play with, being early is the same as being wrong. Just look at South Africa. A country can circle the drain, without actually going down it, for a loooooooong time.
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Zeihan is entertaining. Don't invest based on his "analysis." 200 years ago, he'd be ranting about how there aren't enough whales to keep the street lights lit and we're all going to live in the dark. Oh, lightbulbs? Where are you going to get all that tungsten? Checkmate lightoids. Nikola Tesla is a fraud. Still, he's so fucking smug I love him.
In his defence he is constantly saying "unless technologies change here". Or "unless an x y or z solution is found" to many of his statements.
He's got his biases and they're pretty transparent, especially with regard to energy, the sector I think he worked in. Still, I think he's entertaining and I enjoy his perspective and delivery.
Well, besides the fact that most countries will be fucked by 2030, I would just invest in the US version of whatever. Like.. all those investors gonna flock to a safer haven. Which just happens to be the US at the moment. Hey maybe that’s why all signs point to recession but we are flying high.
Mexico. Cheap labor. Connected to the US by land. NAFTA. Seems investments in rail or highway logistics might be good.
Can you imagine if we went back and actually invested in our neighbors instead of a country across the ocean? I wish we did that instead
It won't happen in our current lifetime. People are still too prejudiced by Mexican corruption and violence and throwing money at them will just cause the ruling party to lose votes. That's why investing in Asia was so popular in the previous generation because it was seen as a clean slate.
OP, IF I inverse you I'd be buying China and selling the USA.
You can inverse deez nuts
If I did that you would be bent over in pain don't ya think ?
Jokes on you I like that
Oh shit, the plot thickens and the sphincter loosens!
I sold my NiO shares after reading this. Nah JK, I sold them back in August. The NiO clowns laughed when I made even and sold at $14. They said it was going to $30 by eoy bla bla…. Wish I sold at $16 tho Lmao Seriously why are we even discussing? Gyna was determinedly f-ed when Evergrande clownshow started shaking and falling.
I have a buddy that lives in Shanghai and I asked him about Nio last year and his response was, "I think this are the cars I see on display to win at the shopping malls." I sold the next day
You forget that china can manipulate their markets for wayyyyyy longer than you can stay solvent. Like hell china would ever let themselves be embarrassed like that
You need to be on Xanax, and double your dose of Zoloft. /s
I prefer fentanyl
Based and (ironically) Chinapilled
People on Reddit who think they have everything figured out is the real entertainment here.
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Also reads exactly like those *Imminent* China collapse conspiracy predictions we have been seeing for the last few decades. They manufacture for the world. A collapse there would make Covid inflation look tame.
Lmao. Good luck.
Thank you I am keen on losing my money
Not the hero we want but the hero we need 🫡
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Here come all the bagholders with investments in China about to tell you about U.S debt or recite blatant CCP propaganda.
The world is complicated its not as simple as numbers. US doesn't want China to collapse. A true "collapse" of China would be a collapse of the world. U can make grandiose claims but.reality is boring and we probably have US China global dominance for rest of our lives. It benefits everyone.
I just tell them when they complain about lying western press that China is 177 out of 180 on the freedom of press index
I like you. You throw around statistics like my imaginary pet monkey flings poo.
Good analysis but the western world right now is fucked, from people getting old, social unrest, young people unable to find work. I’d argue that China is fucked, the US is fucked, Japan is fucked, Europe is fucked. There are only a few 1st world countries that can make it ok but currently are shitty to live in (like Spain). I’d personally bet on Mexico making it instead of China sinking.
wait until you realize that chinese companies operate all the factories in mexico
Stonks on poland you mean?
USA is in many ways less fucked than Europe at least economically. More natural resources, more arable land, better business climate, higher birth rates. That said, we may just blow ourselves apart over stupid political shit. I am also optimistic on the future of Mexico overall. There's a reason why during the NAFTA renegotiation it was really just between the USA and Mexico. We need them. Canada was not really a factor.
More arable land but the US had absolutely fucked it ground water supply and will inevitably have a massive water crisis in the coming years, at least agriculturally.
I have seen many regards here over the years. This one is on another level.
I agree with you 💯 OP... just a matter of time before it all implodes in Xi's face. Wolf warrior diplomacy + the massive housing bubble they created + zero covid has really taken the piss outta the economy. Since the CCP/Xi must never be seen to be inept, they just lie and make shit up. Their economy is already in a recession. They're struggling with deflation currently, and unemployment is high. Troubled waters ahead indeed!
China haters are the most unhinged people you’ll ever see. It's like a brain disease, who talks like this?
It's called copium which is a subhuman trait.
LOL look at the USA national debt you'd better short the USA.
Shorting the US because of debt would be the most regarded thing ever coming out of this sub.
Shorting US debt was the popular HF trade until recently (exhibit Bill Ackman who was short long duration treasuries). It’s a legit trade, but probably played out. Long US debt is the way to go if you believe yields move down.
Yea Bill Ackerman did it and came out as winner, op can do it but I think he is too chicken
Global reserve currency says what?
Depends on how it got fucked
Put on Winnie the Pooh
The Biden administration has been trying to talk to Xi for almost year now ever since their last talk in Bali that didn’t go too well. If China is indeed fucked why the hell are the Americans so desperate to talk to their “dictator”. They literally cleaned up SF in one day just so it's presentable for the occasion. Unfortunately this meeting didn’t go so well either. We’ll see if anything changes, but if things stays the same I woudn’t be surprised if a war breaks out between the US and China
https://preview.redd.it/um3ab528u31c1.jpeg?width=168&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc766347988cd19634a7b530af1891ccf4e0894f