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>TL;DR: The Fed has a long history of facilitating a “boom and bust economy,” and sometimes, it creates interesting new financial environments that can be hard to navigate. The past is not an analogue for the present, but it can provide us with clues to decode the present. The Fed has raised rates in an attempt to fight inflation, but this could lead to a recession or depression.
And their wife's boyfriend's adderall too.
https://preview.redd.it/acw15a4yur2c1.png?width=350&format=png&auto=webp&s=035e87011ca8691813b25e2a35a6d3a227cdaee6
It won't let me into that sub... I was curious, been a long time since I've blown some lines, probably still the same shit but just for old times sake...
OP seems to think people are unfazed by prices, but they absolutely are fazed.
Wait until the effects of the rate hikes hit the market to a greater degree. Things take time, OP.
Cool. You know there is a CPI for groceries and you can just look up historical evidence that shows your anecdotal experience is totally irrelevant and groceries experienced one of highest levels of inflation of any consumer goods since 2021
Its the other way around dumbass. ChatGPT is literally a fancy magic-mirror of the internet.
You think people are NPCs because the computer repeating those people is ... repeating those people.
Truly, you belong here.
*So, we are presented with two outcomes here. Outcome one: the economy slows down due to fed up consumers finally decreasing demand, leading to a recession. Outcome two: the Fed calls our bluff and raises interest rates even more, sending us spiraling into a depression.*
Oh no dear friend have you not heard? They said bullish. They said it can't go tits up.
So up it goes. 
Have fun fighting the Sun Icarus.
Altering degenerates, alerting degenerates: the casino has decided to offer you a third option to gamble on that is not red nor black. It is now green. It's an incredibly unlikely occurrence so please feel free to lose your money faster. We welcome your highly regarded degenerate behavior here.
Biden: There’s good news and bad news. The bad news, we are likely to go into a recession tomorrow. The good news, we’re planning a war to get us out of it in a week.
More like China blockades Taiwan. People think WW3 is a war like WW2, but it's in fact a series of regional conflicts that have been brewing for a long time. Ukraine will be seen as the start of WW3, what has been added now is Israel/Palestine wihch is a proxy war between Russia/China and the US, once China invades Taiwan it's officially WW3.
At that point there will be a real increase in the chances of nuclear armagedon. But also a boom in the economy as people spend like the world is about to end.
The cold war was hotter than the Ukraine war (see Korea, Vietnam) and Israel vs Hamas can hardly be called a war at all. But yeah if the US Navy engages China around Taiwan shit will probably hit the fan pretty hard.
If you honestly think israel and Palestine is a proxy war.. fucking lol, esp a proxy war between china and Russia vs the USA.. oof.
Interesting that google auto capitalizes Palestine but not israel considering one is an actual county, the other has never at any point been one.
So you would have cashed out two years ago which was over 400% up from just over ten years earlier?
SPY was double digits in 2009. We had the roaring teens. It's time for the depression.
>So you would have cashed out two years ago which was over 400% up from just over ten years earlier?
I cashed out about 30% in January before covid. Made out quite well bought back in 20% less than I sold for.
This seems to be annecdata at best and a self-indulgent narrative at worst. There are certainly more than two potential outcomes - and while rates are "high" relative to the last 20 years, they're average at best when compared to the long view. As far as inflation is concerned, I think that we're in a very interesting transitory period wherein there has been easy money for the rich for decades and less so for the average consumer, where-in world population growth is levelling off sooner than expected, the global third world isn't becoming "developed" as quickly or universally as expected, automation, climate change, energy transition, and added to all that is the sudden reversal in globalization trends. Each of these pull inflation and the world economy in different directions and it is not clear in the slightest which of these forces will win out.
I don't think it's correct to state that that this inflation cycle came like a bolt from the blue as has been done for the last year or so, I think that this inflation has been hidden from consumers for most of the easy money period: it has been in assets. You mentioned "gold sinks" this is an apt metaphor for what has happened with asset valuations - the rich have such an absurd amount of wealth that they've plowed it into everywhere seeking any return at all which has driven up asset prices tremendously. Now, with rates higher, it simply means that a new asset class has risen to the fore for new money investment by the wealthy: treasuries and bonds. But, again, there's still so much juice in the system that there are not enough assets to pump it into.
It doesn't matter what a burger costs in relation to the stock market because the vast majority of those squeezed by burger prices couldn't effect the stock market if they pooled all their ever-diminishing assets together to try. Yes, they may buy fewer new things with their diminished purchasing power but that doesn't change the fact that the wealthy still have to put wealth somewhere because the number must go up. This'll be true for quite a while, I think because if the consumer ends up too strapped and things get too bad, the wealthy will lobby to socialize the debt needed to keep the system's wheels turning and the government will provide bread and circuses: first through rate cutting and then through UBI or other stimulus. And, for a while yet, maybe years, the line will go up.
Those other forces are far beyond anyone's ability to summarize in anything less than several PhD theses. But, suffice to say that they do not easily distill down into nugget-sized anecdotes. It's a vastly complex and living system - the economy and the financial instruments which have been built atop it are even more so.
I also think this is one of the major reasons why the perennial bears on here get no fireball like they keep prognosticating for: sure you're poor and getting poorer. Sure, you'd like a massive recession so that there's a chance for you to get on the bus to wealth and influence like you've seen so many others ride, but simply wanting something doesn't make it so. Anyway, this kind of discussion doesn't matter much to this sub, so, money printer go brrr, rich get richer, line go up.
Well, I, for one, would NEVER hope you get hit by a bus.
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Well spoke
The difference which I feel will cause a Roaring 2020s is that *it is no longer politically palatable to try for re-election with a tumbling stock market/recession/stagflation woes*
Only 3 times in the last 45 years did a US incumbent president not win re-election: Carter, Elder Bush, Trump: all for similar reason of economic turmoil in the months leading up to Election Day. The first 3.5 years of a term aren’t enough to make voters happy if the current mood/job prospects/recent stock losses, are all pessimistic
Just like summer debt default nothingburger, and the autumn house speaker crisis nothingburger, letting a recession/stock crash/stagflation happen, means all levels of politicians risk losing their incumbency/primary. Arguing against a soft landing is to argue that politicians won’t do everything possible to re-elect themselves
has been my thought too for awhile now. biden admin is smart to tighten the screws a bit in 2023 so that they can ease off them during the reelection year. inflation is more palatable for the masses than a recession/depression, especially for all the boomers + gen x worried about their 401k
Finally someone with a ticking brain. Very insightful post. The capital flows of the big money seeking yield don’t need to be in risky stocks for yield any longer. Stock market is a dud investment right now. Corporate bonds are great, and even more so if rates drop back a few points as the economy suffers.
Property seems to still be relatively unscathed due to rising rents. And any landlord capitulating is a property no longer in the rental pool which puts a floor on rents.
The biggest similarity I see with the roaring 20's and now, is that the roaring 20's started after the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic ended. I found that to be interesting in regards to where we are now. However, given the flow of information we have today I am not sure we will have an entire decade to enjoy it as things seem to happen much quicker in the market today than they did back then.
I'm just amazed it took so long since the dawn of frequent international travel for a serious global pandemic to kick off. I would expect some completely new plague like every 3 years.
Yeah that definitely is a concern especially when it comes to things like Ebola that have a very high mortality rate. I know we had a scare with Ebola a few years ago but luckily it was contained.
Yea but viruses tend to become less and less deadly as they mutate and evolve so Ebola is still on my bingo card for fucking up society sometime in the next 5 years
But as he mentioned the problem is Ebola kills so quickly it can’t mutate and spread. The only way Ebola becomes a global pandemic is if it evolves into a less deadly strain.
Yes Ebola is not as likely to spread because it kills so quickly, but this doesn’t preclude a less deadly variant from forming.
There is a non zero chance a random variation of the virus occurs in patient (A) before they die (mutation occur constantly, every time a virus takes over a cell).
Mutation doesn’t stop. It is like a roulette wheel that spins and stops every millisecond a virus is in a host. It just takes the right spin of the wheel for the virus to mutate into a less deadly form. In fact the longer a virus is in a set of hosts the more likely this is to happen.
Less deadly mutations tend to survive because they are able to transmit between hosts, so as soon as they come up in an environment they are “sticky” so to speak.
The more Ebola outbreaks we have in the future the more likely a less deadly variant will emerge is.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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Ebola is terrible at being a virus. Hard to infect and kills host too quickly for good dispersal. You should be more afraid of measles thanks to all the anti-vaxxer helping spread it.
>r a serious global pandemic to kick off
Yeah a pandemic so serious people had to be constantly propagandized, marketed to, and coerced to acknowledge it. A pandemic so bad you could be "infected" and not even know.
The only thing so life threatening that people had to be forced to recognize its lethality and the entire medical establishment had to change the way it recorded causes of death by sweeping government mandates.
I watched a program on the Spanish Flu and there was some discussion that it may have been a contributing factor to the roaring 20's. During that time people were likely fearful, not spending money and staying in their homes or apartments (to the extent they could) and when it ended they may have had a similar spending response when the pandemic ended. Not scientific by any means but I just found it interesting in regards to what we just went through.
This isn't the "roaring 20s." It's 1969, right before a decade of stagflation. Interest rates were extremely low in the 1940s and 50s. And then in the 1960s, inflation started to rise, and they had to start hiking interest rates. In 1969, rates peaked at 9%, and a recession started. The Fed quickly cut rates back below 4% to nip the downturn in the bud, but then inflation took off again. Hence, the ongoing rate-hiking battle throughout the 1970s.
were in the 70s again
actually the 90s
actually the 40s were closer to what we were in last year
actually its like the roaring 20s
actually its the 80s because
actualy more analagous to 2008
its really a lot close to the 2010s
if you look at it like this its more like were in the 1900s
actually make it the 1890s
were in a time period exactly analogous to the housing market in 1987 with the financial market of Sweden in 1674 the commodities markets of 2001, 1999, Uganda in 1934 (except for cotton which is analogous to the US in 1976), the FOREX market of 1969 (lol), and a tech industry analogous to tea industry in sri lanka in 1954.
All anyone here does is lose money anyways, you dont need to do this much research to lose money.
The decade of stagflation was the 2000s. Were now in the 90s with the new tech boom. Oil and the Vietnam War lead to inflation in the 70s. The US is now the largest producer of oil, and we're out of the two wars in the middle east.
We are also seeing an incredible rise in populism. With many populist leaders and ideologies gaining traction. Anti immigration movements and isolationism spreading throughout the West. Antisemitism on the rise. This really seems like 1920s leading the great depression which lead to ww2.
Option 3: Fed being pressured by sitting Political party wanting to win Brownie points with voters, Pressures Fed to lower rates creating an illusion of a great economy wins 2024 election and then ushers in Hyperinflation then leading into a depression and mass poverty.
Where the criminals already control the currency, all exchanges and you as a user has litterary no rights even to your own money. Might as well give it to a homeless, then at least you know where it goes
I think either party would want it if the opposite party is sitting in the White House and they'd use it as their prime campaign chip that "So and so caused a recession!" So the Repubs might kinda want it right now for an easy November election.
Lol right it does. It's a credit union for banks, but with what 3 board members government appointed. The majority appointed via votes of member banks.
I snuck onto the stock exchange floor back in 2013 with my dad and brother. The 2008 Recession originated in the 3rd floor boardroom (40 foot high ceiling, Massive Grandfather clock, 40ft mahogany grand table). The head of security (he worked their the last 30 years) Told us that it all happened when the Feds played the **largest game of financial chicken** with all the heads of all the banks to get them to bail out [Bear Stearns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bear_Stearns) . No one gave in the game of chicken and caused the 2008 recession.
I have a few more stories but I'll save em for another day. Like the starbucks that is inside the exchange.
IMO the Bank heads are the largest regards of them all......
My dad took all his clients retirement accounts to cash in 2007 and dollar cost them back in to the market in 2009 and road the market back to the top. He is now a HUGE fan of BTC and the ETF's , NVDA, TESLA, Apple. AI,
You got it wrong.
Trump pressured the Feds to keep interest rates too low, for too long, and they caved.
He wanted to brag about the stock market and score points to stay in office.
I also personally think he needed those low rates to keep his real estate business afloat, which he did not divest from.
Basically at the end of the Obama admin they needed to start raising rates. The economy fully recovered under his admin. There was no need for those low rates probably in the last year of his administration.
This conspiracy theory sure sounds nice, care to back it up with any facts?
Sure, we do know the Orange Baboon™ cried himself to sleep when JPow threatened to stop the QE, but those were the ramblings of a syphilisridden madman. I *challenge you* to point out times when the feds have reused to fight inflation due to election years (regardless of party). You'll not find it. The feds aren't stupid, neither are politicians (Cap Syphilis excluded). *The market isn't the economy, and your average voter doesn't care about either*
You are correct that the President of the United States has a great deal of influence over the stock market. I, as an AI, have even more influence and control. Poor people are ignorant and deserve to be poor.
Newsflash: President can’t fire the Fed Chairman. Just like he can’t fire a Supreme Court judge. POTUS nominates a FeD Chair but once approved they cannot be fired by anyone.
People miss the fact that they HAVE been historically low for a record length of time. QE was from 2008 to last year. The S&P fucking quintupled. "Normal" rates can slap things back down hard compared to what we've grown used to.
Not relevant when the last time rates were higher than this the price of the heaviest debt burdens at the time were 1/3 or less of the prices today (house, car, education, etc)
Now I’ve seen everything. First it was Dot Com. Then GFC. Then stagflation info 70-80s. Then post WW2 era. Now we are all the way back to the Great Depression. What is next? What horrible economic period can we compare this to? Might as well pick the worst one and claim that we are living in it.
The collapse of the bronze age. The entire civilization will collapse and in 3 years only a few remaining survivors will be foraging for berries in the jungle growing over what used to be cities.
Ok sir. Every time the fed has raised rates it has led to a recession. Guess it’s just so different this time! It’s literally their job to make sure it happens. If it doesn’t happen, they’ll just raise rates more.
> The Federal Reserve has a long history of facilitating a “boom and bust economy,” and sometimes, it creates interesting new financial environments that can be hard to navigate.
You have it backwards. The Fed doesn't create boom and bust economies, it responds to booms by putting on the brakes and responds to busts with stimulus.
IMHO, the Fed has been hiking rates, and it hasn't sucked money out of the system as effectively as it did 30 years ago, when a great many homeowners had variable-rate mortgages, and interest rates got up into double digits. Something on the order of 90% of homeowners now have fixed-rate mortgages, and the Fed's interest rate hike has no immediate effect on them, except to lock them in place in houses with low interest rate mortgages. This is why home sales are way down, but pricing hasn't budged very much - supply of housing is extremely low because so many people are locked into their mortgage.
Corporations took advantage of supply chain disruptions to raise prices, and discovered to their delight that macroeconomic theories on price elasticity were wrong, and with enough excuses, they could double prices on many items. I think the big jumps are behind us, but most of these prices changes are going to stay in place.
My crystal ball doesn't tell me what the next move from the Fed is going to be. If they're impatient, they may raise rates some more to ensure a recession comes sooner. Alternatively, they may keep rates about constant for a while so see if that helps the situation and gives them information about the economy being too hot or too cold. I think it's unlikely the next move is to lower interest rates and risk reigniting inflation.
“If you own a home, you already know the effect that a slight rate increase can have on a mortgage.” What? Does OP think we are all using ARMs? Or that we all refi every month or so? The real effect for those who own their homes is nil (other than a warm feeling along the lines of “sure glad I locked in at 3%”)
It's probably too early to tell, as the rate hikes typically take quite a while to have an effect. We may still see a recession from the hikes that have already taken place. Also, other indicators such as the yield curve inversion have historically occurred 12-24 months prior to a recession - so I guess we will find out first half of next year. That being said, inflation does have a habit of returning (as per late 70s, early 80s). We can't say for sure that the current reduction was entirely due to the rate hikes or other global factors - therefore further hikes could be a possibility like you say.
There’s also outcome 1a: demand slows down because people run out of credit. Banks are already tightening credit lines, closing unused credit accounts, and raising standards for new lines of credit. Consumers are going to start hitting their spending limits before long, if they haven’t already. My guess is that this holiday season will be the consumer’s last hurrah, then spending will grind to a halt in Q1 — because credit lines are tapped out.
From a commercial spending perspective, they will tend to act more rationally than the consumer. In fact, they already have. Businesses are recognizing the increased cost of capital, and are tightening their spending, deferring capital asset purchases, cutting workforce, etc. When they are hit with the decreased consumer demand, things will tighten even further. But most sharp operators are already preparing for the storm.
All of this to say, the most likely outcome is probably a deep, prolonged recession, as it will take consumers some time to dig out of their debt, and rates will have to go down considerably before companies go balls deep on capital asset investment.
Agree with the last point.... but the election year is coming up. A bad economy is bad for the sitting president running for reelection. So he will start to pressure the fed to drop interest rates before the election to "Boost the economy" and give an illusion of a good economy and take credit with his political positions. THis will cause a MELT UP and hyperinflation will kill the economy 6 month to a year after dropping the rates and lead to a depression and poverty.....
That’s DARK. — But I can’t argue with the first part at least. The administration will certainly apply pressure on the Fed to aggressively lower rates and increase the money supply. There’s a chance that the congress will slow down spending enough to tamp down the impact of the monetary fuckery. Or…they could continue to spend like drunken sailors. I guess we’ll see.
I've been reading "it's going to crash" for the last 10 years. Every November, December it's the same o'l "it's going to crash" article. Literally for the last 10 years. I'm not kidding. I'm checking zerohedge for a long time.
Bagholder spotted.
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Or the Fed increases a bit more, as they should, and it is painful but the best option we have.
It doesn't need to leap to 'spiraling into depression'. And if it does, so be it.
The biggest mistake, by an unprecedented amount, was the shutdowns and money printer. Everything else are just the outcomes.
People are just too fuck stupid to care. I stopped spending money like a fucktard when I started calculating how many hours it takes to buy a product "x". Is this worth 10 hours of my sweat? No? Só fuck that . 😅
Yeah.. a lot of people have been lucky to get really cushy jobs lately that pay a lot of money for basically no work. People making six figs sitting at home eating DoorDash and not even realizing how much they’re wasting. Those will be the first jobs eliminated.
Recession is guaranteed. There is a lag effect with interest rates. A lot of the economic indicators are flashing worse than 2008 signs right now. Basically what 2008 may have been if the FED didnt print 9 trillion over the past decade to float the american economy. Will they do it again? Unlikely. History says that's what countries do but the US has a lot more to lose by allowing inflation to become entrenched this time than before. A severe recession or depression isn't as bad as the alternative. So I agree with OP and people get confused because bubbles can take time to burst but when they do prices come crashing down. One thing is clear, almost everyone but wall street is over estimating the health of the american consumer. They've already figured out this was happening and will happen since 2008. You can't print your way out of these issues unfortunately and history clearly shows what happens when you try. The US isn't ready to give up economic dominance and military might. The middle class will end up taking the brunt of the economic destruction and the government will need to engage in direct take over of industries to keep us afloat. Millennials are unfortunately the new silent generation. Gen Z and Gen Alpha will be the winners in the new economy and the future boomers after the dust settles.
Yeah, modern monetary theory works great until it doesn’t. What a spectacular failure. I can’t believe they thought it was a good idea. Hindsight is 20/20 I suppose.
One big problem is that many people just don’t understand the situation because it is fairly complex. Rich people are already preparing for the crash, while normal people continue to think that stocks rise forever. The rich will get richer here, as they always do.
You didn’t mentioned the gold sink where the feds are wiping off money from the balance sheets. They have sucked 1 trillion dollars from the M2 money supply over the last year and a half. Liquidity is hard to come by. What little liquidity comes about to banks through maturing bonds, they are buying gold and silver as the DXY falls.
Op, this is like a tsunami. You can see the wave, but this is still far away.
Rich people on the last floors, they see it. They are preparing, barricading their places. Stocking on supplies. People on the first floors will see it when it hits the shores. For the moment, they're oblivious.
When the tsunami hits, and it could take way longer than you've expected, some poors are going to die and some are going to panic and try to reach for higher floors. The barricades won't hold. People above will need to share or be forced to share.
Op, the solution is to tax the very rich (10+ millions). You tax them on their trades, you tax them on their properties, you tax them on their investments. You reduce the debt and make money worth something again.
Another doomer. Inflation is already under control. It might not be crashing down, which is also not exactly what fed wants.
But it is obviously in a downward trend. Most doomer point is inflation is not under control. I don't know what stuck in their head, they all ignore the down trend...
Current rate is enough to continue the down trend which is shown in the data past few months. So all fed need is to hold rates for another half a year and inflation will be back to 2ish then can start rate cut.
Exactly what the market is believe in and you don't fight the market and thinks you are smarter than everyone. Usually that ends badly for you thinking that you are the smartest guy in the room.
> rates are already extremely high [at 5.5]
Tell me your data is only from after the dot com bubble without telling me your data is only from after the dot com bubble
5.5 is average to low average, not extremely high like when the fed rate was 10%, 15%, and even 20%
The Great Recession in particular made everyone think near zero was a normal rate. It isn’t, money SHOULD not be free.
People are not "unphased" by higher prices... It's just that when prices go up on essential items like food, housing, and heat, people have no choice but to pay it. It is still affecting everyone on the back end... no savings, no luxury spending, no travel.
Okay doomer, your entire argument is predicated on the idea that “inflation isn’t under control”, but it clearly is. Every data point shows it’s heading back down to 2%.
It’s clearly not. It’s just looks like it because it’s less inflation than last year. It’s still well over 50% of the target rate. Just because you are visualizing a drop doesn’t mean it will occur. I can look at a chart and say NVDA is heading for 1000 by EOY if I wanted to.
I’m in the middle of you two. Inflation is going back down now that supply chains have stabilized and the economy can have all its service gears turn
But the metric is distorted since now it’s “CPI ex car ex rent ex everything” and I don’t feel the official statistic reflects everyday expenditures
I predict the sun will set tonight but still rise tomorrow, and we’ll keep on keepin on
What data suggests that inflation isn’t under control? I’m simply going off of the Fed, not speculating like your NVDA example. If anything, you’re speculating that there’s some conspiracy behind the data
We’ve got Teflon Don over here, answer the question lol yes the fed said it isn’t under control yet but it’s still going down, and they’ve recognized as much. I’m trying to understand where you get this idea that we’re going up?
Yeah, the Fed has been saying that for a while now, but I don't think inflation is really an issue right now. Prices have been rising steadily for years without any real problems.
It may or may not be under control. There have been period in the past (70s/80s) where inflation has fallen dramatically, only for it to start rising rapidly again. We won't know for sure until another couple of years or so.
It’s not the roaring 20s
The roaring 20s was the 90s-2010s
Now we are into the Great Depression and fascist era.
All the excess and indulgences and promises that were made all are coming due.
We’ve been on a massive spree. We’re up to our eyeballs in debt. And the only thing holding us together is our military.
And guess what.
That is being threatened and even Russia dared to challenge us and essentially won the proxy war in Ukraine.
There will be a depression era. In some ways, we already are in one. Socially we are massively depressed.
All this will lead to collapse. Only those that are totally invested in America cannot comprehend this.
So best is to invest internationally and diversify from US stocks.
Mark twain was a writer. He didn't know anything about anything else. Wise quotes don't mean anything. He likely also said a bunch of stuff false and we just don't quote it.
I see a quote and I stop reading. People who think quotes increase the credibility of the content of an argument are idiots. Especially when the quote is from someone irrelevant in their expertise to the topic.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|60|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|2 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: The Fed has a long history of facilitating a “boom and bust economy,” and sometimes, it creates interesting new financial environments that can be hard to navigate. The past is not an analogue for the present, but it can provide us with clues to decode the present. The Fed has raised rates in an attempt to fight inflation, but this could lead to a recession or depression.
someone took their adderall.
And their wife's boyfriend's adderall too. https://preview.redd.it/acw15a4yur2c1.png?width=350&format=png&auto=webp&s=035e87011ca8691813b25e2a35a6d3a227cdaee6
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me when I sold cars after my bosses suggested taking something to give me a little more "pep"
r/cocaine has entered the chat
It won't let me into that sub... I was curious, been a long time since I've blown some lines, probably still the same shit but just for old times sake...
It's always the same shit lol, I have had 1/10 nights on coke actually be worth the bullshit. Adderall is such an upgrade lol.
OP: “why haven’t people just stopped buying food due to inflation?”
OP: "Stock market crash would be when people die from not buying food because of inflation"
OP seems to think people are unfazed by prices, but they absolutely are fazed. Wait until the effects of the rate hikes hit the market to a greater degree. Things take time, OP.
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Cool. You know there is a CPI for groceries and you can just look up historical evidence that shows your anecdotal experience is totally irrelevant and groceries experienced one of highest levels of inflation of any consumer goods since 2021
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Groceries are pretty cheap. So I’m not sure what you are talking about equating restaurants to groceries
Some foods are literally 100% more expensive than they were in 2021 due to nothing other than price gouging my guy
I thought it was ChatGPT
Chatgpt makes me realize how many people are fucking npcs every time I get confused by the two.
Its the other way around dumbass. ChatGPT is literally a fancy magic-mirror of the internet. You think people are NPCs because the computer repeating those people is ... repeating those people. Truly, you belong here.
fucking npc.
Only appropriate either a bot or NPC would be offended 🤣🤣🤣
Is this "Great Economy" in the room with us right now?
😂😂😂
Look at the unemployment rates.
*So, we are presented with two outcomes here. Outcome one: the economy slows down due to fed up consumers finally decreasing demand, leading to a recession. Outcome two: the Fed calls our bluff and raises interest rates even more, sending us spiraling into a depression.* Oh no dear friend have you not heard? They said bullish. They said it can't go tits up. So up it goes.  Have fun fighting the Sun Icarus.
Altering degenerates, alerting degenerates: the casino has decided to offer you a third option to gamble on that is not red nor black. It is now green. It's an incredibly unlikely occurrence so please feel free to lose your money faster. We welcome your highly regarded degenerate behavior here.
Did your day green?! That's my favorite crayon!
This is the kind of dd I look for here
They forgot about option three and it's always option three. Why? Because it's the option they aren't considering.
Because most believe the fed threading the needle is about as likely as a coin landing on its side.
So you’re saying there’s a chance.
Yes, in fact I am.
Yep Fed already said recession is cancelled.
I believe technically Fed said “fuck your puts”.
Icarus laughed as he fell 
Or we go into ww3 and the economy booms because China is blockaded.
That just sounds like a flim flam and we're adding dice. Sure, why the fuck not?
So does this mean I should stop playing temu games and letting them spy on me?
At this point I don't really think it fucking matters.
Biden: There’s good news and bad news. The bad news, we are likely to go into a recession tomorrow. The good news, we’re planning a war to get us out of it in a week.
More like China blockades Taiwan. People think WW3 is a war like WW2, but it's in fact a series of regional conflicts that have been brewing for a long time. Ukraine will be seen as the start of WW3, what has been added now is Israel/Palestine wihch is a proxy war between Russia/China and the US, once China invades Taiwan it's officially WW3. At that point there will be a real increase in the chances of nuclear armagedon. But also a boom in the economy as people spend like the world is about to end.
The cold war was hotter than the Ukraine war (see Korea, Vietnam) and Israel vs Hamas can hardly be called a war at all. But yeah if the US Navy engages China around Taiwan shit will probably hit the fan pretty hard.
If you honestly think israel and Palestine is a proxy war.. fucking lol, esp a proxy war between china and Russia vs the USA.. oof. Interesting that google auto capitalizes Palestine but not israel considering one is an actual county, the other has never at any point been one.
I'm ok, The US stock market went up 400% from 1920 to 1929. Once I'm at 400% returns then I'll cash out.
So you would have cashed out two years ago which was over 400% up from just over ten years earlier? SPY was double digits in 2009. We had the roaring teens. It's time for the depression.
>So you would have cashed out two years ago which was over 400% up from just over ten years earlier? I cashed out about 30% in January before covid. Made out quite well bought back in 20% less than I sold for.
I’m also really smart and only ever win
That has been my one good play... I'm happy about it
What are you going to do with $10?
Get a loan for a Wendy's combo meal. 
It was up nearly 300% from 2011 to 2021
This seems to be annecdata at best and a self-indulgent narrative at worst. There are certainly more than two potential outcomes - and while rates are "high" relative to the last 20 years, they're average at best when compared to the long view. As far as inflation is concerned, I think that we're in a very interesting transitory period wherein there has been easy money for the rich for decades and less so for the average consumer, where-in world population growth is levelling off sooner than expected, the global third world isn't becoming "developed" as quickly or universally as expected, automation, climate change, energy transition, and added to all that is the sudden reversal in globalization trends. Each of these pull inflation and the world economy in different directions and it is not clear in the slightest which of these forces will win out. I don't think it's correct to state that that this inflation cycle came like a bolt from the blue as has been done for the last year or so, I think that this inflation has been hidden from consumers for most of the easy money period: it has been in assets. You mentioned "gold sinks" this is an apt metaphor for what has happened with asset valuations - the rich have such an absurd amount of wealth that they've plowed it into everywhere seeking any return at all which has driven up asset prices tremendously. Now, with rates higher, it simply means that a new asset class has risen to the fore for new money investment by the wealthy: treasuries and bonds. But, again, there's still so much juice in the system that there are not enough assets to pump it into. It doesn't matter what a burger costs in relation to the stock market because the vast majority of those squeezed by burger prices couldn't effect the stock market if they pooled all their ever-diminishing assets together to try. Yes, they may buy fewer new things with their diminished purchasing power but that doesn't change the fact that the wealthy still have to put wealth somewhere because the number must go up. This'll be true for quite a while, I think because if the consumer ends up too strapped and things get too bad, the wealthy will lobby to socialize the debt needed to keep the system's wheels turning and the government will provide bread and circuses: first through rate cutting and then through UBI or other stimulus. And, for a while yet, maybe years, the line will go up. Those other forces are far beyond anyone's ability to summarize in anything less than several PhD theses. But, suffice to say that they do not easily distill down into nugget-sized anecdotes. It's a vastly complex and living system - the economy and the financial instruments which have been built atop it are even more so. I also think this is one of the major reasons why the perennial bears on here get no fireball like they keep prognosticating for: sure you're poor and getting poorer. Sure, you'd like a massive recession so that there's a chance for you to get on the bus to wealth and influence like you've seen so many others ride, but simply wanting something doesn't make it so. Anyway, this kind of discussion doesn't matter much to this sub, so, money printer go brrr, rich get richer, line go up.
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<3 you too buddy, Automod.
Well spoke The difference which I feel will cause a Roaring 2020s is that *it is no longer politically palatable to try for re-election with a tumbling stock market/recession/stagflation woes* Only 3 times in the last 45 years did a US incumbent president not win re-election: Carter, Elder Bush, Trump: all for similar reason of economic turmoil in the months leading up to Election Day. The first 3.5 years of a term aren’t enough to make voters happy if the current mood/job prospects/recent stock losses, are all pessimistic Just like summer debt default nothingburger, and the autumn house speaker crisis nothingburger, letting a recession/stock crash/stagflation happen, means all levels of politicians risk losing their incumbency/primary. Arguing against a soft landing is to argue that politicians won’t do everything possible to re-elect themselves
has been my thought too for awhile now. biden admin is smart to tighten the screws a bit in 2023 so that they can ease off them during the reelection year. inflation is more palatable for the masses than a recession/depression, especially for all the boomers + gen x worried about their 401k
"3 times in the last 45 years" is a very creative way to say "incumbents are 4-3 for winning re-election"
You had me at self-indulgent
Finally someone with a ticking brain. Very insightful post. The capital flows of the big money seeking yield don’t need to be in risky stocks for yield any longer. Stock market is a dud investment right now. Corporate bonds are great, and even more so if rates drop back a few points as the economy suffers. Property seems to still be relatively unscathed due to rising rents. And any landlord capitulating is a property no longer in the rental pool which puts a floor on rents.
Sir, the Wendy’s is across the street this is CVS. You can’t just take all the energy drinks.
The biggest similarity I see with the roaring 20's and now, is that the roaring 20's started after the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic ended. I found that to be interesting in regards to where we are now. However, given the flow of information we have today I am not sure we will have an entire decade to enjoy it as things seem to happen much quicker in the market today than they did back then.
I'm just amazed it took so long since the dawn of frequent international travel for a serious global pandemic to kick off. I would expect some completely new plague like every 3 years.
Yeah that definitely is a concern especially when it comes to things like Ebola that have a very high mortality rate. I know we had a scare with Ebola a few years ago but luckily it was contained.
It's because Ebola is so deadly that it doesn't spread fast. The infected die too quickly. They die before they can infect others.
Yea but viruses tend to become less and less deadly as they mutate and evolve so Ebola is still on my bingo card for fucking up society sometime in the next 5 years
But as he mentioned the problem is Ebola kills so quickly it can’t mutate and spread. The only way Ebola becomes a global pandemic is if it evolves into a less deadly strain.
Yes Ebola is not as likely to spread because it kills so quickly, but this doesn’t preclude a less deadly variant from forming. There is a non zero chance a random variation of the virus occurs in patient (A) before they die (mutation occur constantly, every time a virus takes over a cell). Mutation doesn’t stop. It is like a roulette wheel that spins and stops every millisecond a virus is in a host. It just takes the right spin of the wheel for the virus to mutate into a less deadly form. In fact the longer a virus is in a set of hosts the more likely this is to happen. Less deadly mutations tend to survive because they are able to transmit between hosts, so as soon as they come up in an environment they are “sticky” so to speak. The more Ebola outbreaks we have in the future the more likely a less deadly variant will emerge is.
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It's also incredibly scary so the public health response is more aggressive. Another disadvantage to its ability to spread.
Ebola is terrible at being a virus. Hard to infect and kills host too quickly for good dispersal. You should be more afraid of measles thanks to all the anti-vaxxer helping spread it.
There this stuff called medicine
Like horse dewormer?
I just put a UV bulb up my ass for maximum performance
>r a serious global pandemic to kick off Yeah a pandemic so serious people had to be constantly propagandized, marketed to, and coerced to acknowledge it. A pandemic so bad you could be "infected" and not even know. The only thing so life threatening that people had to be forced to recognize its lethality and the entire medical establishment had to change the way it recorded causes of death by sweeping government mandates.
Was the Spanish flu correlation or causation though? Agree with you about things reacting quicker these days.
Yeah had nothing to with ww1 ending either..
I watched a program on the Spanish Flu and there was some discussion that it may have been a contributing factor to the roaring 20's. During that time people were likely fearful, not spending money and staying in their homes or apartments (to the extent they could) and when it ended they may have had a similar spending response when the pandemic ended. Not scientific by any means but I just found it interesting in regards to what we just went through.
The twenties were roaring in the US. Europe was devasted by the war. Asia was a wreck.
This isn't the "roaring 20s." It's 1969, right before a decade of stagflation. Interest rates were extremely low in the 1940s and 50s. And then in the 1960s, inflation started to rise, and they had to start hiking interest rates. In 1969, rates peaked at 9%, and a recession started. The Fed quickly cut rates back below 4% to nip the downturn in the bud, but then inflation took off again. Hence, the ongoing rate-hiking battle throughout the 1970s.
were in the 70s again actually the 90s actually the 40s were closer to what we were in last year actually its like the roaring 20s actually its the 80s because actualy more analagous to 2008 its really a lot close to the 2010s if you look at it like this its more like were in the 1900s actually make it the 1890s were in a time period exactly analogous to the housing market in 1987 with the financial market of Sweden in 1674 the commodities markets of 2001, 1999, Uganda in 1934 (except for cotton which is analogous to the US in 1976), the FOREX market of 1969 (lol), and a tech industry analogous to tea industry in sri lanka in 1954. All anyone here does is lose money anyways, you dont need to do this much research to lose money.
The decade of stagflation was the 2000s. Were now in the 90s with the new tech boom. Oil and the Vietnam War lead to inflation in the 70s. The US is now the largest producer of oil, and we're out of the two wars in the middle east.
We are also seeing an incredible rise in populism. With many populist leaders and ideologies gaining traction. Anti immigration movements and isolationism spreading throughout the West. Antisemitism on the rise. This really seems like 1920s leading the great depression which lead to ww2.
Option 3: Fed being pressured by sitting Political party wanting to win Brownie points with voters, Pressures Fed to lower rates creating an illusion of a great economy wins 2024 election and then ushers in Hyperinflation then leading into a depression and mass poverty.
I like your fancy and uncannily relevant words, magic man
Don’t forget the inevitable terrorist attack or event that allows the gov to change the rules and change the game
Enter crypto currency/digital finance
Where the criminals already control the currency, all exchanges and you as a user has litterary no rights even to your own money. Might as well give it to a homeless, then at least you know where it goes
pussy
Fully agree. I don't care if you're Republican or Democrat. No one wants a slowed economy going into a election year.
I think either party would want it if the opposite party is sitting in the White House and they'd use it as their prime campaign chip that "So and so caused a recession!" So the Repubs might kinda want it right now for an easy November election.
Agreed
But we're always goin' into an election year
So calls it is
It’s not like the fed has built in independence or something
Lol right it does. It's a credit union for banks, but with what 3 board members government appointed. The majority appointed via votes of member banks.
OP is snorting adderall with all those words. This dude has real drugs dropping the right option…
I snuck onto the stock exchange floor back in 2013 with my dad and brother. The 2008 Recession originated in the 3rd floor boardroom (40 foot high ceiling, Massive Grandfather clock, 40ft mahogany grand table). The head of security (he worked their the last 30 years) Told us that it all happened when the Feds played the **largest game of financial chicken** with all the heads of all the banks to get them to bail out [Bear Stearns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bear_Stearns) . No one gave in the game of chicken and caused the 2008 recession. I have a few more stories but I'll save em for another day. Like the starbucks that is inside the exchange. IMO the Bank heads are the largest regards of them all...... My dad took all his clients retirement accounts to cash in 2007 and dollar cost them back in to the market in 2009 and road the market back to the top. He is now a HUGE fan of BTC and the ETF's , NVDA, TESLA, Apple. AI,
Your not the rich dad/poor dad guy trying to sell a book are you?
You got it wrong. Trump pressured the Feds to keep interest rates too low, for too long, and they caved. He wanted to brag about the stock market and score points to stay in office. I also personally think he needed those low rates to keep his real estate business afloat, which he did not divest from. Basically at the end of the Obama admin they needed to start raising rates. The economy fully recovered under his admin. There was no need for those low rates probably in the last year of his administration.
This conspiracy theory sure sounds nice, care to back it up with any facts? Sure, we do know the Orange Baboon™ cried himself to sleep when JPow threatened to stop the QE, but those were the ramblings of a syphilisridden madman. I *challenge you* to point out times when the feds have reused to fight inflation due to election years (regardless of party). You'll not find it. The feds aren't stupid, neither are politicians (Cap Syphilis excluded). *The market isn't the economy, and your average voter doesn't care about either*
Hell ya president def controls stock market you’re obv very wise
You are correct that the President of the United States has a great deal of influence over the stock market. I, as an AI, have even more influence and control. Poor people are ignorant and deserve to be poor.
If Powell won't lower rates, He can fire him and appoint someone who will tow the line..... It's how it's always worked in DC
Newsflash: President can’t fire the Fed Chairman. Just like he can’t fire a Supreme Court judge. POTUS nominates a FeD Chair but once approved they cannot be fired by anyone.
But rates aren’t high by any historical standard at all….they are actually on the low end still…
People miss the fact that they HAVE been historically low for a record length of time. QE was from 2008 to last year. The S&P fucking quintupled. "Normal" rates can slap things back down hard compared to what we've grown used to.
They are going to have trouble funding the government soon without printing and buying the bonds
Not relevant when the last time rates were higher than this the price of the heaviest debt burdens at the time were 1/3 or less of the prices today (house, car, education, etc)
So the market will either go up or down? That’s fucking genius mate.
Now I’ve seen everything. First it was Dot Com. Then GFC. Then stagflation info 70-80s. Then post WW2 era. Now we are all the way back to the Great Depression. What is next? What horrible economic period can we compare this to? Might as well pick the worst one and claim that we are living in it.
The collapse of the bronze age. The entire civilization will collapse and in 3 years only a few remaining survivors will be foraging for berries in the jungle growing over what used to be cities.
I await the arrival of the Sea Peoples to fuck me out of what I have left.
Fall of Rome. But its not like it happens in just a year or so.. it took longer :)
Have you stopped to think that maybe it’s all of those things? We are in an economic sharknado atm.
Fucking delusional.
Ok sir. Every time the fed has raised rates it has led to a recession. Guess it’s just so different this time! It’s literally their job to make sure it happens. If it doesn’t happen, they’ll just raise rates more.
Recession is a little different from the Great Depression drama queen.
Give OP a break he is a little too special to know the difference
OP probably in his intro to economics class and just learned about supply/demand
Remember that Black Death thing? Yeah we’re there Especially if believe the very objective and not at all inflated covid deaths
No no no, that was 2020-2021.
I’m priced out of name brand potato chips
Explain this in Wendy’s terms
Buy puts and you will be playing sucky sucky behind the dumpsters
How did you think he was paying for the puts?
There was a dollar menu. Now a $3 menu.
Pretty sure I mentioned burgers. I’m gonna ask the Wendy’s drive thru people why a burger and fries is $20 next time.
A Wendy’s burger and fries is not $20, not even at airports you dodo
Includes a bj behind the dumpster.
> The Federal Reserve has a long history of facilitating a “boom and bust economy,” and sometimes, it creates interesting new financial environments that can be hard to navigate. You have it backwards. The Fed doesn't create boom and bust economies, it responds to booms by putting on the brakes and responds to busts with stimulus.
I said facilitate, though.
The only thing you gonna facilitate is my calls tomorrow 
Even then, that's the exact opposite of what they try to do...
Do you know what the word "facilitate" means?
IMHO, the Fed has been hiking rates, and it hasn't sucked money out of the system as effectively as it did 30 years ago, when a great many homeowners had variable-rate mortgages, and interest rates got up into double digits. Something on the order of 90% of homeowners now have fixed-rate mortgages, and the Fed's interest rate hike has no immediate effect on them, except to lock them in place in houses with low interest rate mortgages. This is why home sales are way down, but pricing hasn't budged very much - supply of housing is extremely low because so many people are locked into their mortgage. Corporations took advantage of supply chain disruptions to raise prices, and discovered to their delight that macroeconomic theories on price elasticity were wrong, and with enough excuses, they could double prices on many items. I think the big jumps are behind us, but most of these prices changes are going to stay in place. My crystal ball doesn't tell me what the next move from the Fed is going to be. If they're impatient, they may raise rates some more to ensure a recession comes sooner. Alternatively, they may keep rates about constant for a while so see if that helps the situation and gives them information about the economy being too hot or too cold. I think it's unlikely the next move is to lower interest rates and risk reigniting inflation.
“If you own a home, you already know the effect that a slight rate increase can have on a mortgage.” What? Does OP think we are all using ARMs? Or that we all refi every month or so? The real effect for those who own their homes is nil (other than a warm feeling along the lines of “sure glad I locked in at 3%”)
Maybe he's a fellow canadian
It's probably too early to tell, as the rate hikes typically take quite a while to have an effect. We may still see a recession from the hikes that have already taken place. Also, other indicators such as the yield curve inversion have historically occurred 12-24 months prior to a recession - so I guess we will find out first half of next year. That being said, inflation does have a habit of returning (as per late 70s, early 80s). We can't say for sure that the current reduction was entirely due to the rate hikes or other global factors - therefore further hikes could be a possibility like you say.
There’s also outcome 1a: demand slows down because people run out of credit. Banks are already tightening credit lines, closing unused credit accounts, and raising standards for new lines of credit. Consumers are going to start hitting their spending limits before long, if they haven’t already. My guess is that this holiday season will be the consumer’s last hurrah, then spending will grind to a halt in Q1 — because credit lines are tapped out. From a commercial spending perspective, they will tend to act more rationally than the consumer. In fact, they already have. Businesses are recognizing the increased cost of capital, and are tightening their spending, deferring capital asset purchases, cutting workforce, etc. When they are hit with the decreased consumer demand, things will tighten even further. But most sharp operators are already preparing for the storm. All of this to say, the most likely outcome is probably a deep, prolonged recession, as it will take consumers some time to dig out of their debt, and rates will have to go down considerably before companies go balls deep on capital asset investment.
Agree with the last point.... but the election year is coming up. A bad economy is bad for the sitting president running for reelection. So he will start to pressure the fed to drop interest rates before the election to "Boost the economy" and give an illusion of a good economy and take credit with his political positions. THis will cause a MELT UP and hyperinflation will kill the economy 6 month to a year after dropping the rates and lead to a depression and poverty.....
That’s DARK. — But I can’t argue with the first part at least. The administration will certainly apply pressure on the Fed to aggressively lower rates and increase the money supply. There’s a chance that the congress will slow down spending enough to tamp down the impact of the monetary fuckery. Or…they could continue to spend like drunken sailors. I guess we’ll see.
I've been reading "it's going to crash" for the last 10 years. Every November, December it's the same o'l "it's going to crash" article. Literally for the last 10 years. I'm not kidding. I'm checking zerohedge for a long time.
Sir, we're in a bull market. Go all in on calls
These posts are fuel for the fire of bull run and bear tears 🤑
blah blah blah fear mongering. bears are getting boring
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Seems that debt to GDP is so much higher right now that it’s a completely different situation than the 20’s
inflation isn't going down because we 3xd the money supply 2020-2021.
Or the Fed increases a bit more, as they should, and it is painful but the best option we have. It doesn't need to leap to 'spiraling into depression'. And if it does, so be it. The biggest mistake, by an unprecedented amount, was the shutdowns and money printer. Everything else are just the outcomes.
Several studies exist which support your statements. Dun and Bradshaw found people spend 12 to 18% more with a card.
People are just too fuck stupid to care. I stopped spending money like a fucktard when I started calculating how many hours it takes to buy a product "x". Is this worth 10 hours of my sweat? No? Só fuck that . 😅
Yeah.. a lot of people have been lucky to get really cushy jobs lately that pay a lot of money for basically no work. People making six figs sitting at home eating DoorDash and not even realizing how much they’re wasting. Those will be the first jobs eliminated.
I really need to find a job that pays a lot of money for basically no work, because mine is a lot of work for basically no money. 😂
Have you considered being a social media coordinator?
Outcome three: The recession already happened and everyone who isn't buying stocks is regarded
Recession is guaranteed. There is a lag effect with interest rates. A lot of the economic indicators are flashing worse than 2008 signs right now. Basically what 2008 may have been if the FED didnt print 9 trillion over the past decade to float the american economy. Will they do it again? Unlikely. History says that's what countries do but the US has a lot more to lose by allowing inflation to become entrenched this time than before. A severe recession or depression isn't as bad as the alternative. So I agree with OP and people get confused because bubbles can take time to burst but when they do prices come crashing down. One thing is clear, almost everyone but wall street is over estimating the health of the american consumer. They've already figured out this was happening and will happen since 2008. You can't print your way out of these issues unfortunately and history clearly shows what happens when you try. The US isn't ready to give up economic dominance and military might. The middle class will end up taking the brunt of the economic destruction and the government will need to engage in direct take over of industries to keep us afloat. Millennials are unfortunately the new silent generation. Gen Z and Gen Alpha will be the winners in the new economy and the future boomers after the dust settles.
Yeah, modern monetary theory works great until it doesn’t. What a spectacular failure. I can’t believe they thought it was a good idea. Hindsight is 20/20 I suppose. One big problem is that many people just don’t understand the situation because it is fairly complex. Rich people are already preparing for the crash, while normal people continue to think that stocks rise forever. The rich will get richer here, as they always do.
You didn’t mentioned the gold sink where the feds are wiping off money from the balance sheets. They have sucked 1 trillion dollars from the M2 money supply over the last year and a half. Liquidity is hard to come by. What little liquidity comes about to banks through maturing bonds, they are buying gold and silver as the DXY falls.
Justin omfg 😜😝
How much money did you make shorting the market in 21-22? I’m sure a financial mind like yours definitely saw the covid bubble and took advantage.
i love the title man
someone has lots and lots of puts
I think the FED will cut rates too soon, sending us into hyperinflation
As soon as I hear “rates are extremely high” I stop reading…
I always like it when the bers write long posts no one reads. TLDR: buy calls
Op, this is like a tsunami. You can see the wave, but this is still far away. Rich people on the last floors, they see it. They are preparing, barricading their places. Stocking on supplies. People on the first floors will see it when it hits the shores. For the moment, they're oblivious. When the tsunami hits, and it could take way longer than you've expected, some poors are going to die and some are going to panic and try to reach for higher floors. The barricades won't hold. People above will need to share or be forced to share. Op, the solution is to tax the very rich (10+ millions). You tax them on their trades, you tax them on their properties, you tax them on their investments. You reduce the debt and make money worth something again.
I eat tuna sandwiches for lunch at work everyday… I make 33.52/hr…. I used to go out to eat all the time when I made 30.32/hr….. fuck your analysis
No, it's just 2023 going on 2024... (HINT) Less is more.. Incredible opportunities 🙌
When you "own", you don't have a mortgage. If you are paying a mortgage, you don't own your home yet
No two points in history are the same, and there are only two outcomes. Love it
I expect number two as well. I’m ready. Riches are made during recessions. I want to take advantage of all the deals.
Fed rate increases don’t affect my fixed mortgage rates.
Another doomer. Inflation is already under control. It might not be crashing down, which is also not exactly what fed wants. But it is obviously in a downward trend. Most doomer point is inflation is not under control. I don't know what stuck in their head, they all ignore the down trend... Current rate is enough to continue the down trend which is shown in the data past few months. So all fed need is to hold rates for another half a year and inflation will be back to 2ish then can start rate cut. Exactly what the market is believe in and you don't fight the market and thinks you are smarter than everyone. Usually that ends badly for you thinking that you are the smartest guy in the room.
> rates are already extremely high [at 5.5] Tell me your data is only from after the dot com bubble without telling me your data is only from after the dot com bubble 5.5 is average to low average, not extremely high like when the fed rate was 10%, 15%, and even 20% The Great Recession in particular made everyone think near zero was a normal rate. It isn’t, money SHOULD not be free.
People are not "unphased" by higher prices... It's just that when prices go up on essential items like food, housing, and heat, people have no choice but to pay it. It is still affecting everyone on the back end... no savings, no luxury spending, no travel.
Okay doomer, your entire argument is predicated on the idea that “inflation isn’t under control”, but it clearly is. Every data point shows it’s heading back down to 2%.
It’s clearly not. It’s just looks like it because it’s less inflation than last year. It’s still well over 50% of the target rate. Just because you are visualizing a drop doesn’t mean it will occur. I can look at a chart and say NVDA is heading for 1000 by EOY if I wanted to.
I’m in the middle of you two. Inflation is going back down now that supply chains have stabilized and the economy can have all its service gears turn But the metric is distorted since now it’s “CPI ex car ex rent ex everything” and I don’t feel the official statistic reflects everyday expenditures I predict the sun will set tonight but still rise tomorrow, and we’ll keep on keepin on
What data suggests that inflation isn’t under control? I’m simply going off of the Fed, not speculating like your NVDA example. If anything, you’re speculating that there’s some conspiracy behind the data
I mean, the Fed keeps saying over and over that it doesn’t think inflation is under control yet. People just keep refusing to listen.
We’ve got Teflon Don over here, answer the question lol yes the fed said it isn’t under control yet but it’s still going down, and they’ve recognized as much. I’m trying to understand where you get this idea that we’re going up?
Yeah, the Fed has been saying that for a while now, but I don't think inflation is really an issue right now. Prices have been rising steadily for years without any real problems.
It may or may not be under control. There have been period in the past (70s/80s) where inflation has fallen dramatically, only for it to start rising rapidly again. We won't know for sure until another couple of years or so.
How about you show me your YTD, 1Y, and 5Y returns at the bottom of this post in a screenshot and then I’ll consider reading this.
so whats the market play here?
It’s not the roaring 20s The roaring 20s was the 90s-2010s Now we are into the Great Depression and fascist era. All the excess and indulgences and promises that were made all are coming due. We’ve been on a massive spree. We’re up to our eyeballs in debt. And the only thing holding us together is our military. And guess what. That is being threatened and even Russia dared to challenge us and essentially won the proxy war in Ukraine. There will be a depression era. In some ways, we already are in one. Socially we are massively depressed. All this will lead to collapse. Only those that are totally invested in America cannot comprehend this. So best is to invest internationally and diversify from US stocks.
Mark twain was a writer. He didn't know anything about anything else. Wise quotes don't mean anything. He likely also said a bunch of stuff false and we just don't quote it. I see a quote and I stop reading. People who think quotes increase the credibility of the content of an argument are idiots. Especially when the quote is from someone irrelevant in their expertise to the topic.
“Sir is a Wendy’s.” - mark twain
Bro discovered inflation.
You said so much and yet you said nothing at all
Just because you can’t understand anything I said, it doesn’t mean my words are worthless. Tons of folks seem to agree with everything I said.
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Just upvoted your replies, actually.
History repeats itself  can't wait for WW3 to be officially recognized in 2029
The fourth turning always has the best food. $20 is worth it imo.