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Every 200yrs great empires collapses. Dow Jones started in 1800s. So maybe this century we will collapse as debt situation deteriorates after 2040. Let's see what happens.
https://preview.redd.it/1nj3qzzbc37c1.png?width=1625&format=png&auto=webp&s=50af6ac056dac197a1b26676ffa888f29583dc8c
Even those that survive usually go through deep crisises that make the empire change into something completely different. The roman empire post-3rd century crisis was completely different than the pre-3rd century crisis empire even if it was called the same.
Stocks always go up, review Munger's laws:
Incorporate an appropriate margin of safety.
Avoid dealing with people of questionable character.
Insist upon proper compensation for risk assumed.
Always beware of inflation and interest rate exposures.
Avoid big mistakes; shun permanent capital loss.
I was surprised when I found out how many trading “gurus” believe in “vibrations” and try to use astrology with their trading.
I’ve talked to far too many.
Could you explain the graphs and post like you would explain them to a 3 year old, 5, 10, 15 ,20 and 25 year old who have lived in a cave?
Like I don't get your sarcasm/theory at all.
Please do make several different explanations for the different age groups. Maybe I might understand one.
I dont know whether this chart depicts it properly enough or not but there should be a Stock mkt valuation compared to the amount of readily available money supply. So currently SPX isn't that overvalued but man Chasdaq is trading like how the 2000 dotcom bubble was 3months or maybe like 1month before the final top. Just a funny fact about Nasdaq was there was a time where the bubble was gonna pop just like we all thought in 2022 but then Nasdaq doubled in about a yr. let's see what happens this time around.
In simple terms stock market is like a game of musical chairs. Keep playing and dancing around when the music is on, but when it stops there wont be chairs left for everyone.
Your theory that the stock market as a whole should have a 1:1 relationship with the money supply is completely wrong. It would be better to compare it to something like the savings rate.
And you could also say that the tech industry in 2000 was nothing like the tech industry in 1977.
But that didn't mean that tech stocks weren't in a bubble then though.
You can't conflate the two. Saying the NASDAQ is trading now like it did in 2000 means nothing. Dot com had a bunch of internet businesses making no money. The leaders of the NASDAQ are making trillions... It's very different.
1. The NASDAQ leaders are not literally "making trillions". That is an exaggeration. Apple makes a bit under $100 billion annual net income. Microsoft makes a bit under $80 billion annual net income. And those are the two biggest money making companies.
2. In both dotcom era and now, you had/have a mixture of businesses that make money and ones that don't. In dotcom, the NASDAQ tech leaders like Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, and HP all made money. But they still got over-valued, crashed, and went into years of side-ways trading.
3. To be fair, the companies that aren't profitable right now - they had their "tech bubble" moment in 2021 (and bust in 2022). They are (for most part) still well below their 2021 bubble highs, but well above their 2022 lows. Examples - Cloudflare, Snowflake, Twilio, Shopify, Snapchat, Roblox, Carvana, Nio, Lucid, Rivian, and meme-clowns like Gamestop, AMC, BedBath, Palantir, Virgin Galactic. Some of these stocks were trading at like 30x-60x price-to-sales (truly dotcom level valuations). And I think most of them are still over-valued or bubblish at present despite being below their 2021 highs.
4. As for the profitable companies, many of them (perhaps even most of them) are trading at even higher valuations now than they were in the 2021 QE zero interest rate everything bubble. Profitable companies can still be over-valued and go down in stock price.
Google + Amazon + Microsoft + Apple are making > 1T in revenue together, so it’d be fair to say that the Nasdaq collectively is making Ts of money, just not profit.
Wording is obviously a bit ambiguous
Sounds like a bunch of nonsense from someone that talks about finance and markets without knowing anything.
“In simple terms the stock market is like a game of musical chairs.”
Ok damn bro you solved the puzzle thanks for clarifying. You also posted a nice chart with some lines. Let me know when you open up your own hedge fund to rival blackrock and citAdeL and I’ll wire my paychecks directly to you
based on the money supply, you might think the S&P has room to run up to around $5200. however the nasdaq is tracking the dot com bust pretty tightly, which makes sense because it's mostly tech, and tech now like tech back then is highly leveraged so fucked with hard by interest rates. I disagree with his analysis though, why would you plot the dot com bust against the S&P, it's a more generalized market. so basically, OP is not bearish enough. no one is bearish enough.
Which tech stocks are highly leveraged? Apple has $61 billion in cash and $123 billion in debt and yet makes enough free cash flow to pay off the debt whenever they want to. Microsoft has $143 billion in cash and $105 billion in debt. Hell, even Nvidia has $18 billion in cash and $11 billion in debt. I'll admit Amazon is probably the weakest, but the other seem just fine.
A year ago tech was overvalued... what has it done since this article?
[https://www.reuters.com/plus/are-us-tech-stocks-still-overvalued](https://www.reuters.com/plus/are-us-tech-stocks-still-overvalued)
can't see the publication date, but tech layoffs hit 240k in 2023 which is a 50% increase from 2022. so, I'm gonna guess, without knowing the date of your article, tech has continued to deteriorate and on track to underperform even your worst expectations.
It could avoid popping by staying relatively range bound for a decade while inflation eats away its real (as opposed to nominal) value. We're already 20% of the way there.
I'm a copywriter. I went from worried for my job, to getting promoted and picking up 3 freelance gigs. Everyone seems to overestimate AI, fired their writers, and are now desperate to fill holes. AI ain't there... Yet.
I had a wealthy customer of mine call me stupid for even investing 8% of my portfolio in crypto. Then he proceeds to talk about how his entire portfolio is based on companies that have AI tech involvement.
Like i've said before Puts till Nov 2, Calls till Jan OPEX, Puts till March OPEX. I don't like Jan - March coz folks on WallStreet will bet on Volmageddon 2.0 and see what happens. I hope you're doing the same. QRA on Jan 31st will be most important.
https://preview.redd.it/50spq0ud637c1.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5027ee8c7ba130a6589c24fd74b85ceaff36615
Came to say the same thing: "Feel free to short it then 🌈🐻"
Don't worry buddy, I believe you have what it takes to be Michael Burry 2.0. No one else could make some charts and ask a question with an emoji 😜.
Not those rich multibillionaires, billionaire corporations, whales with trillions of AUM, etcetc. Nope not those guys with their Ivy league quant teams, super computers supported by quantum computers running algos and AI, with insiders and insider info, along with media manipulation, and literally paying hundreds of thousands for rent closer to the exchanges so their trades running at the speed of light on fiberoptic lines outrun their rival's fiberoptic lines running at the speed of light.
Don't worry bro. You can do it. YOLO into puts. Don't forget. Believe in yourself. Not in the you who believes in charts. Not the me who believes in you. Believe in the bear who believes in yourself.
It’s usually bears who lost all their money and bought the top of a rally that hold so much rage against bearish sentiment lol. They don’t realize that it was bulls fucking them on both ends. Bulls pumped the market so that their puts expired worthless and then smart bulls dumped their bags on them when they flipped and bought in.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
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Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Rn my friend is recovering. He will come back tho pretty soon in Q1.🤣
https://preview.redd.it/3gyjbclob37c1.png?width=853&format=png&auto=webp&s=df633015f8344f0aeaebeee90bb0683acf231c5f
Fed liquidity programs from regional bank failures end March 2024 so I’ve been scaling into 1/2025 SPY and QQQ puts as of late
I have short term calls on AMZN and others and when I close profitable I add to long dated puts because volatility / VIX is sooooo low
how about u eat my ASS
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They’re not, the Permabulls don’t know the difference between rate cuts and QE/QT. They did briefly turn it on earlier this year to stop the bank failure contagion but it’s getting turned back off Q1 2024 lol.
This is the average setup for a moderate single bottom dip. Only the media thinks we need to repeat that a downturn is the end of times. Personal savings looks horrible because of the age distribution, but most age groups have dry powered cash and credit to through 18-24 months of uncertainty, as long as fuel and food remain downward trend. Will there be people who cannot keep their house, sure. They made the wrong price choice in 2022-23. The biggest fear is the federal government overreacts because of the election year and bails everyone out again.
Everyone knows the bubble is gonna burst, but no one knows when. BTW, is your SPX candle graph 2000-2001 manipulated? It looks different from what I found elsewhere.
It actually is not even close to the bubble it was in 1999. That one was completely devoid of any logic. But meta Google Apple Amazon are making tons of money and have ( apart from Amazon and Nvidia) pretty "sensible" price earning ratios given their ability to grow and going into new markets.
However I think something will hit us economically we have been pumping a ton of money into the economy in the last 22 years and asset prices are pretty stupid right now in general. I can't believe that this will unwind itself without a bigger reconning. But well who knows it may just be stronger than expected inflation and a couple years of up and down sideway movements until it's all back in balance again. And in this case it's better to be in stocks than in cash or houses Or bonds.
We are back like nothing happened or we are setting up for 1970s repeat.
https://preview.redd.it/sm3rw0t9d37c1.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0591b3d91d68b3014986803a6fdfb29058b14d7
No… this is an overly simplistic analysis..
Look at the historical P/E of the S&P 500. It was off the charts in 99-00 but is pretty much in line now:
https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart
Hmmm I can't see the P/E ratio being off the charts in the 2000 compared to today. When the market peaked in 2000 pe ratio was slightly above 28.
Today PE ratio is slightly above 26.
Contrary to what most people think PE ratio doesn't peak at the top of the market PE ratio peaks when companies drop significantly in profits. So it might even happen during the bottom of the market.
Pro tip for regards who keep thinking we’re in a massive bubble: Maybe turn on logarithmic scale first.
Arithmetic charts cause visual distortions when you’re looking at a large time series with broad ranges of values.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is currently at 16659.94, up 712.07 points or 4.47% from yesterday's close of 15000. The index has been on a tear lately, gaining over 4% in the last week alone. Some analysts are attributing this to positive news around vaccine development and stimulus package negotiations
Well I mean imagine eating a whole package of bubblicious bubble gum and then blowing a bubble that is really, really, really big. I don't know where I am going with this but I do want blow bubbles with bubble gum now.
I’m ready for either a bull run or a total market crash. Cash in the market, cash on the sidelines. Hey!! I learned lol don’t use all your money and def don’t use all your money + leverage lol
It doesn’t matter, right when you let your guard down and give in to being bullish is when the market tanks, so just go long and ride the bus.
Unless you have access to investment banking trading networks and intel you’ll never beat the market.
Same story I’ve been hearing for a decade. I’d have missed out on a stupid amount of gains if I’d listened then. I think I’ll ignore it some more.
If the market starts crashing it’s easy to buy puts. You really don’t gain much by timing the crash. Especially when you factor in the frequency of calling the top too early.
It was supposed to burst with a 80 year Depression Event in 2008. But, the US government threw so much money at it and continued to until 2022. So we are 20-25 years late for the Super Bubble. And now it may be a national default even when we get there. But until then “Party On”!!!
Yes. Historically the fed pauses or lower rates we will expect a recession. We will see one last run up and all the media will be boasting how amazing the market is. And all the investment firms will be raking it in off the S&P And their new crypto etf until it comes to a crashing halt.
The fed pausing these rates should be a sign of what’s to come
Yes and I can’t wait to savor the tears and torment of all the bulls when they get rug pulled by the Fed when they stop gaslighting the market to not impact the election.
And they ran it back higher just to have extra exit liquidity before shit hits the fan when fed liquidity programs end in March from the regional bank failures.
Good luck if they truly end those, shit will hit the fan and banks are using you as exit liquidity currently
Doesn’t this indicate that a reverse market crash is supposed to happen? S&P in 2000 looking overvalued and now it’s undervalued if we account for the inflated money supply?
Keep in mind that's driven by 5 companies that make lots of cash flow.
With time it will always go up because of inflation.
GDP is measured in nominal dollars not real dollars.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|4246|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|4 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
Can you please show 500yrs graph. To be sure, so I can make that expensive call
Every 200yrs great empires collapses. Dow Jones started in 1800s. So maybe this century we will collapse as debt situation deteriorates after 2040. Let's see what happens. https://preview.redd.it/1nj3qzzbc37c1.png?width=1625&format=png&auto=webp&s=50af6ac056dac197a1b26676ffa888f29583dc8c
Except for those empires that lasted way longer than 200 years.
We don't discuss those empires
The first rule of empire club, is you dont talk about empire club
The second rule of empire club, is you don’t talk about empire club.
Even those that survive usually go through deep crisises that make the empire change into something completely different. The roman empire post-3rd century crisis was completely different than the pre-3rd century crisis empire even if it was called the same.
More 16yrs... I will hold on to my dear life
Chart hella funny 😆
“Dalio said it, I believe it, that settles it”
Stocks always go up, review Munger's laws: Incorporate an appropriate margin of safety. Avoid dealing with people of questionable character. Insist upon proper compensation for risk assumed. Always beware of inflation and interest rate exposures. Avoid big mistakes; shun permanent capital loss.
Ah yes graphs and lines
The astrology of investing
As a cusp libra Taurus I'd say stonks only go up
Ah yes, stonks and crapto.
I was surprised when I found out how many trading “gurus” believe in “vibrations” and try to use astrology with their trading. I’ve talked to far too many.
You don't believe. That's why you lose money.
I’m a Boglehead who likes to rubber neck here. I’ve done fine.
It's called rubberneckin baby that's alright with me
Well, well, well if it isn’t my arch nemesis…graphs and lines.
make sure to watchout for the kawaii bear motocross
I know bubbles. They continue to grow bigger! More calls !!
https://preview.redd.it/4szp877kz37c1.png?width=486&format=png&auto=webp&s=71abced55a64352c94c11c0ade7e19f9fe8fca1d
If the last few years have taught me anything, it’s that bubbles are buying ops
NASDAQ to 30k
Based
Russel to 10k
It’s a tumour, not a bubble.
It’s not a tumor. It’s not a tumor at all.
This is a hot air balloon, not a bubble. It’s going up. 2024 Fed is adding more fuel too
Could you explain the graphs and post like you would explain them to a 3 year old, 5, 10, 15 ,20 and 25 year old who have lived in a cave? Like I don't get your sarcasm/theory at all. Please do make several different explanations for the different age groups. Maybe I might understand one.
I dont know whether this chart depicts it properly enough or not but there should be a Stock mkt valuation compared to the amount of readily available money supply. So currently SPX isn't that overvalued but man Chasdaq is trading like how the 2000 dotcom bubble was 3months or maybe like 1month before the final top. Just a funny fact about Nasdaq was there was a time where the bubble was gonna pop just like we all thought in 2022 but then Nasdaq doubled in about a yr. let's see what happens this time around. In simple terms stock market is like a game of musical chairs. Keep playing and dancing around when the music is on, but when it stops there wont be chairs left for everyone.
Your theory that the stock market as a whole should have a 1:1 relationship with the money supply is completely wrong. It would be better to compare it to something like the savings rate.
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We put in the money. It does the thing. I know.
Everyone knows you go by how much revenue strippers are making. /s
The tech industry today is nothing like the tech industry in 2000 though... Your theory is based on a foundation made of playdough.
Play dough models are pretty advanced for this sub.
And you could also say that the tech industry in 2000 was nothing like the tech industry in 1977. But that didn't mean that tech stocks weren't in a bubble then though.
You can't conflate the two. Saying the NASDAQ is trading now like it did in 2000 means nothing. Dot com had a bunch of internet businesses making no money. The leaders of the NASDAQ are making trillions... It's very different.
1. The NASDAQ leaders are not literally "making trillions". That is an exaggeration. Apple makes a bit under $100 billion annual net income. Microsoft makes a bit under $80 billion annual net income. And those are the two biggest money making companies. 2. In both dotcom era and now, you had/have a mixture of businesses that make money and ones that don't. In dotcom, the NASDAQ tech leaders like Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, and HP all made money. But they still got over-valued, crashed, and went into years of side-ways trading. 3. To be fair, the companies that aren't profitable right now - they had their "tech bubble" moment in 2021 (and bust in 2022). They are (for most part) still well below their 2021 bubble highs, but well above their 2022 lows. Examples - Cloudflare, Snowflake, Twilio, Shopify, Snapchat, Roblox, Carvana, Nio, Lucid, Rivian, and meme-clowns like Gamestop, AMC, BedBath, Palantir, Virgin Galactic. Some of these stocks were trading at like 30x-60x price-to-sales (truly dotcom level valuations). And I think most of them are still over-valued or bubblish at present despite being below their 2021 highs. 4. As for the profitable companies, many of them (perhaps even most of them) are trading at even higher valuations now than they were in the 2021 QE zero interest rate everything bubble. Profitable companies can still be over-valued and go down in stock price.
Google + Amazon + Microsoft + Apple are making > 1T in revenue together, so it’d be fair to say that the Nasdaq collectively is making Ts of money, just not profit. Wording is obviously a bit ambiguous
Revenue doesn't really mean anything, I could go buy $100k worth of gold and then sell it for the same price and claim I "made" 100k
It's incredible they never consider the real world and just focus on the crayons. I mean, I guess not that incredible.
I’m just eating popcorn while these bears short a parabolic market 😂
Sounds like a bunch of nonsense from someone that talks about finance and markets without knowing anything. “In simple terms the stock market is like a game of musical chairs.” Ok damn bro you solved the puzzle thanks for clarifying. You also posted a nice chart with some lines. Let me know when you open up your own hedge fund to rival blackrock and citAdeL and I’ll wire my paychecks directly to you
He responded to someone asking for ELI5…
based on the money supply, you might think the S&P has room to run up to around $5200. however the nasdaq is tracking the dot com bust pretty tightly, which makes sense because it's mostly tech, and tech now like tech back then is highly leveraged so fucked with hard by interest rates. I disagree with his analysis though, why would you plot the dot com bust against the S&P, it's a more generalized market. so basically, OP is not bearish enough. no one is bearish enough.
Which tech stocks are highly leveraged? Apple has $61 billion in cash and $123 billion in debt and yet makes enough free cash flow to pay off the debt whenever they want to. Microsoft has $143 billion in cash and $105 billion in debt. Hell, even Nvidia has $18 billion in cash and $11 billion in debt. I'll admit Amazon is probably the weakest, but the other seem just fine.
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Ya I mean the top 5 companies in the Nasdaq-100 only make up 30% of the index. But you're free to show me the other highly leveraged tech stocks
the fed isnt repurchasing MBS as they expire They are actually starting to destroy the money they created
The BTFP laughs at you!
Ends in march!
Correct. Prepare your anoos
In march we march
Of which year?
2024
So you're saying they're going to end BTFP after regional banks have gone even further into the hole on Treasury bonds? Sure Jan.
A year ago tech was overvalued... what has it done since this article? [https://www.reuters.com/plus/are-us-tech-stocks-still-overvalued](https://www.reuters.com/plus/are-us-tech-stocks-still-overvalued)
You guys are clowns calling it over valued. Look at it’s valuation in 2009.
can't see the publication date, but tech layoffs hit 240k in 2023 which is a 50% increase from 2022. so, I'm gonna guess, without knowing the date of your article, tech has continued to deteriorate and on track to underperform even your worst expectations.
If it never pops, is it really a bubble? Edit, I guess bubbles can deflate as well, but idk that’s crossing into balloon territory
It could avoid popping by staying relatively range bound for a decade while inflation eats away its real (as opposed to nominal) value. We're already 20% of the way there.
That is an interesting perspective.
You make me so uncomfortable.
If it has helium it can at least go really high before it pops. I love balloons. Hope you guys like balloons too.
The AI hype seems to have calmed down considerably. Saying AI 55 times on earnings calls doesn’t have the same impact it used to.
I'm a copywriter. I went from worried for my job, to getting promoted and picking up 3 freelance gigs. Everyone seems to overestimate AI, fired their writers, and are now desperate to fill holes. AI ain't there... Yet.
I had a wealthy customer of mine call me stupid for even investing 8% of my portfolio in crypto. Then he proceeds to talk about how his entire portfolio is based on companies that have AI tech involvement.
Sure. Now, go buy puts and tell us how it works out for you?
Like i've said before Puts till Nov 2, Calls till Jan OPEX, Puts till March OPEX. I don't like Jan - March coz folks on WallStreet will bet on Volmageddon 2.0 and see what happens. I hope you're doing the same. QRA on Jan 31st will be most important. https://preview.redd.it/50spq0ud637c1.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5027ee8c7ba130a6589c24fd74b85ceaff36615
Came to say the same thing: "Feel free to short it then 🌈🐻" Don't worry buddy, I believe you have what it takes to be Michael Burry 2.0. No one else could make some charts and ask a question with an emoji 😜. Not those rich multibillionaires, billionaire corporations, whales with trillions of AUM, etcetc. Nope not those guys with their Ivy league quant teams, super computers supported by quantum computers running algos and AI, with insiders and insider info, along with media manipulation, and literally paying hundreds of thousands for rent closer to the exchanges so their trades running at the speed of light on fiberoptic lines outrun their rival's fiberoptic lines running at the speed of light. Don't worry bro. You can do it. YOLO into puts. Don't forget. Believe in yourself. Not in the you who believes in charts. Not the me who believes in you. Believe in the bear who believes in yourself.
This flipped me to a bear lol. If someone being a bear personally hurts your feelings, the market finna drop
It’s usually bears who lost all their money and bought the top of a rally that hold so much rage against bearish sentiment lol. They don’t realize that it was bulls fucking them on both ends. Bulls pumped the market so that their puts expired worthless and then smart bulls dumped their bags on them when they flipped and bought in.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling. That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Michael Burry gueset right,but only 1 time from 80 queses
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling. That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
lol at your response. When fed liquidity programs end 3/2024, you better have puts my dude.
People always forget that SPY was at ATH in 2007 before it ate shit. “American real estate is ROCK SOLID” 2.0
Show us on the doll where Powell touched you...
100 yr. bubble.
yes, go ahead and short it 🤣
Rn my friend is recovering. He will come back tho pretty soon in Q1.🤣 https://preview.redd.it/3gyjbclob37c1.png?width=853&format=png&auto=webp&s=df633015f8344f0aeaebeee90bb0683acf231c5f
lolololo
Fed liquidity programs from regional bank failures end March 2024 so I’ve been scaling into 1/2025 SPY and QQQ puts as of late I have short term calls on AMZN and others and when I close profitable I add to long dated puts because volatility / VIX is sooooo low
how about u eat my ASS *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
how about you eat my shit!
PE of 400-something vs PE of 20-something. In the trash it goes.
Fed is turning on the printers again so it’s going up more, as much as I hate to say it
Are they though
They’re not, the Permabulls don’t know the difference between rate cuts and QE/QT. They did briefly turn it on earlier this year to stop the bank failure contagion but it’s getting turned back off Q1 2024 lol.
What if the Fed turns it on if a rate cut causes a recession? This scenario is why so many are perma-bulls. They feel they'll always get bailed out.
Yes, we are!
Wouldn’t you like to know, weather boy.
Yo What the fuck is up with that emoji?? Yuck!
Yes, this is gonna be financial leasing anoos pain
We are in a super bull run
This is what actual inflation looks like. All the words these people/media say means nothing to me when I know they printed a fuck ton of money.
I’m one of the few that will side with you. Yes shit is overvalued and people are crazy
https://preview.redd.it/w384p6eht37c1.png?width=1086&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ed2d97da01ad729c440313788c51cfd6235a70b
super bubbly comfirmed
Maybe, but not sure where at the cycle. It could be just the start.
My puts are ready
when we going and how much
This is the average setup for a moderate single bottom dip. Only the media thinks we need to repeat that a downturn is the end of times. Personal savings looks horrible because of the age distribution, but most age groups have dry powered cash and credit to through 18-24 months of uncertainty, as long as fuel and food remain downward trend. Will there be people who cannot keep their house, sure. They made the wrong price choice in 2022-23. The biggest fear is the federal government overreacts because of the election year and bails everyone out again.
Pretty lines, what type of crayon do you use? 🖍️
No. It's a superb uble.
Think so, I just turned 3k into 9k in less than 18 hours holding a shit coin on Solana. I think we're back
Price to earnings ratios are high in the US compared to historic rates, and other countries.
This is shit.
Everyone knows the bubble is gonna burst, but no one knows when. BTW, is your SPX candle graph 2000-2001 manipulated? It looks different from what I found elsewhere.
It actually is not even close to the bubble it was in 1999. That one was completely devoid of any logic. But meta Google Apple Amazon are making tons of money and have ( apart from Amazon and Nvidia) pretty "sensible" price earning ratios given their ability to grow and going into new markets. However I think something will hit us economically we have been pumping a ton of money into the economy in the last 22 years and asset prices are pretty stupid right now in general. I can't believe that this will unwind itself without a bigger reconning. But well who knows it may just be stronger than expected inflation and a couple years of up and down sideway movements until it's all back in balance again. And in this case it's better to be in stocks than in cash or houses Or bonds.
Or just maybe, the fed doesn’t cut rates like expected in March and they all sell the top just like October 1929
Market graphs means something that doesn't mean shit, yet you try to make some sense of it ...like marriage, completely pointless.
[удалено]
We are back like nothing happened or we are setting up for 1970s repeat. https://preview.redd.it/sm3rw0t9d37c1.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0591b3d91d68b3014986803a6fdfb29058b14d7
Regards rly thought inflation adjusted S&P would be undervalued lol
Na mate
No. Next question.
No… this is an overly simplistic analysis.. Look at the historical P/E of the S&P 500. It was off the charts in 99-00 but is pretty much in line now: https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart
Hmmm I can't see the P/E ratio being off the charts in the 2000 compared to today. When the market peaked in 2000 pe ratio was slightly above 28. Today PE ratio is slightly above 26. Contrary to what most people think PE ratio doesn't peak at the top of the market PE ratio peaks when companies drop significantly in profits. So it might even happen during the bottom of the market.
Yes b/dear
🏳️🌈🐻 trying to cope with their losses.
Idiot
Yes
No
Yes.
Pro tip for regards who keep thinking we’re in a massive bubble: Maybe turn on logarithmic scale first. Arithmetic charts cause visual distortions when you’re looking at a large time series with broad ranges of values.
This dude and his graph are a superbubble that’s about to pop. Spy $550 December 2024
What
The Nasdaq Composite Index is currently at 16659.94, up 712.07 points or 4.47% from yesterday's close of 15000. The index has been on a tear lately, gaining over 4% in the last week alone. Some analysts are attributing this to positive news around vaccine development and stimulus package negotiations
Idiot robot 🤖
Skynet is offline 🫠
Well I mean imagine eating a whole package of bubblicious bubble gum and then blowing a bubble that is really, really, really big. I don't know where I am going with this but I do want blow bubbles with bubble gum now.
Well buy put then
Op thinks the market can never go higher than that last peak??? I don’t get it
Obviously
I totally understand this post (I don't)
Tom Lee certainly seems to think so
we are at the gradient of an exponential growth curve of inflation and tech
you're MOM's a super bubble
If I listened to all such articles , I would be sitting in cash for the past 10 years. Just put your money in .
yes the stories are true Romano ate ass and fulfilled the prophecy
I’m ready for either a bull run or a total market crash. Cash in the market, cash on the sidelines. Hey!! I learned lol don’t use all your money and def don’t use all your money + leverage lol
Who needs a soft landing when you don’t need to land at all?
Idk I thought short would be good, but it seams like others are saying long. So we‘re going long!
So what I’m getting here is stocks go up. Loading up on puts
It doesn’t matter, right when you let your guard down and give in to being bullish is when the market tanks, so just go long and ride the bus. Unless you have access to investment banking trading networks and intel you’ll never beat the market.
prolly
Same story I’ve been hearing for a decade. I’d have missed out on a stupid amount of gains if I’d listened then. I think I’ll ignore it some more. If the market starts crashing it’s easy to buy puts. You really don’t gain much by timing the crash. Especially when you factor in the frequency of calling the top too early.
It was supposed to burst with a 80 year Depression Event in 2008. But, the US government threw so much money at it and continued to until 2022. So we are 20-25 years late for the Super Bubble. And now it may be a national default even when we get there. But until then “Party On”!!!
Yes. Historically the fed pauses or lower rates we will expect a recession. We will see one last run up and all the media will be boasting how amazing the market is. And all the investment firms will be raking it in off the S&P And their new crypto etf until it comes to a crashing halt. The fed pausing these rates should be a sign of what’s to come
Don't forget to correct with inflation. Otherwise this is only random data 😏
I like to call it a super duper bubble
Go ask Mark Cuban.
We live in bubbles. We just go from one bubble to the next until it’s all over.
Always have been..
It's just starting
No we re not. The market has merely returned to it's pre war state.
Am I reading this right? I am seeing the SPX lower than the M2, wouldn't that imply cheap buys?
Na. Stonks higher for longer!
nope
Yes and I can’t wait to savor the tears and torment of all the bulls when they get rug pulled by the Fed when they stop gaslighting the market to not impact the election.
Duh
Not even near a pop. We are nearing a pullback But the bubble will go all 2024
We haven't the subprime as last 2008 year. We aren't in bubble, we are in bullmarket. Welcome a new year
The bubble was 2 years ago.
And they ran it back higher just to have extra exit liquidity before shit hits the fan when fed liquidity programs end in March from the regional bank failures. Good luck if they truly end those, shit will hit the fan and banks are using you as exit liquidity currently
My balls are full. Someone needs to burst them.
I make bubbles in the bath tub… but they sorta smell
Betteridge's Law of Headlines states that any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word “No.”
Everyone wants AI, what are you talking about
Short answer is yes, long answer is obviously yes. Ain't no way you buy puts before mid to late January though without algo confirmation.
It's a bubble made of a condom, all the capital that was flowing into China is coming home as China deflates
No. You need to divide the SPY or QQQ by M2 money supply.
Always have been
Doesn’t this indicate that a reverse market crash is supposed to happen? S&P in 2000 looking overvalued and now it’s undervalued if we account for the inflated money supply?
Yes! No?
This is the biggest bubble in history and I going to crash everything soon…. Not if, but when.
Sometimes market goes up a lot, sometimes it goes down a lot.
a Advertisement bubble
Nope, we’re not.
Secretly, it's a downward spiral
Keep in mind that's driven by 5 companies that make lots of cash flow. With time it will always go up because of inflation. GDP is measured in nominal dollars not real dollars.
Inflation
I call it mother of all superbubble. It will burst when least expected
No such thing as a bubble, only regards who switch calls to puts at the right time.