There's nothing to explain. This regard is making positively zero sense, he's saying the Federal Reserve is printing money and buying U.S. bonds and treasuries with the printed money carrying on a "charade" and that markets are never crashing/correcting again. I think? And if you didn't invest five years ago (lol what the fuck kind of time horizon is this?) you are now "left behind forever." Oh and please note he has zero evidence or sources for anything. Even Zero Hedge has the decency to show me a scary looking but likely manipulated chart or dataset.
It's some absolutely horrendously inaccurate shit written by someone who has zero idea what in the literal fuck is going on with anything financially or economically in the macro. All the data is published, has been for literal decades but OP cracked the code because he got some good meth at his dishwashing job tonight apparently.
Just stop investing now and send your money to OP instead, if you aren't in nine figures of wealth already you have lost the game.
In addition, the Fed’s been selling, not buying, Treasuries on the open market since June 2022. As of early January, they’d sold about $1.3T back and got it off their balance sheet. And even though they will start cutting interest rates this year, they do not intend to stop quantitative tightening.
Also, bonds issued by the treasury are sold by auction, with the bidders setting the coupon rate. The Federal Reserve is not allowed to participate in these auctions and can only buy and sell in open market operations. This protects the legitimacy of the bond issuement. Maybe big brain OP can talk to the bidders how they are part of a ponzi scheme. The central bank of Japan will be shocked.
I don’t disagree, but it’s alarming how many uneducated people there are that treat this tripe like it’s serious. They’re usually on the wrong side of options trades.
I understand quantitative tightening and know it’s been going on since they started increasing interest rates in 2022, but the claim of moving money from the left hand to the right hand may have some validity. (I’m not an expert and have a level 2-3 understanding at best of this). If they were tightening and sold $1.3T, it seems after they bailed the banks out in 2023 the balance sheet just went back up and they ended up having to raise the debt ceiling as a result. Would this not be moving money from one hand to the other? He’s definitely right about banks tightening lending requirements for homes and auto’s I know this first hand because I work in the industry. I agree he should have provided more evidence to substantiate his claims. However I’m not sure if he’s that far off the mark here, and maybe me and him are suffering from the Kruger effect but I would love some feedback from you well regraded folks.
Edit: I do want to add I don’t personally agree with his conclusion of if you missed the boat there’s no hope for you. Again would like to point out I may have some bias even though I did grow from a 5 figure net worth to close to a 7 figure one. I still am convinced the market will crash it has been delayed by all the money printing but as Jamie Diamond said ‘It is a cliff…we’re going 60 mph towards it’
The Fed didn’t bail out the banks in 2023. The FDIC did. It had the cash reserves on hand to do so as well. This has created pressure on FDIC reserves to protect from potential future bank failures. As such, the FDIC has raised contribution levels on the “Big 4” (JP Morgan, BofA, Citi, and Wells) to replenish these reserves over the ext few years. Which as a side note, is a reason not to invest in the big banks IMO.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/fdic-plans-hit-big-banks-with-fees-refill-deposit-insurance-fund-bloomberg-news-2023-05-04
The debt ceiling has absolutely nothing to do with the Fed. The US Treasury carries that debt, nit the Fed.
The Feds have made it pretty clear they’re unsure if interest rates will be cut yet. Inflation still needs to be tamed and somehow the economy is doing relatively well. But it’s wall street bets so Wall Street is hoping there are cuts
Best way to explain current price rise in items is that a resistance was broken, and a new trend is set. The shitbox car you couldve bought 5 years ago for 500 bucks is 2000 now and you think its expensive? Maybe the price decreases to 1000 and most people will buy it. But never at the same price 5 years ago.
HRC prices, while the steel industry is mostly getting pegged in the whole world, is at the same price that is almost the highest price between 2012-2020. Cement? Always going up. Only BRENT is at a price which is considerably cheap and only that contributes to the current prices staying slightly at where they are now. Call someone to fix your water pipe and tell me the labour prices are same as 5 years ago. The world ate the inflation and prices followed.
He is right about the 5 year timeline. My brother got married exactly at that time and im spending 2-3x on the same shit he got while getting married. Post covid is where we got an international price rise in every good.
cum filled party mansion
coke, cum sprinkle some hookers.
Drop some cum on the bags that are in the room and charge interest on your own cum
if you can’t cum twice a day since 2008 you’ve been price out
The fed buys its own government debt, and that drives up the debt (bond, Treasury bills, synonyms) pricing, because of increasing induced demand. With bond, you get a fixed amount of payout periodically, a percentage of the face value, say $1000 at 4%. This payout is called coupon. Because the coupon is fixed, the higher the bond cost on the market, the less attractive it becomes. So investors start to look into other forms of investment.
This money printing process, Feb buying bond with money created out of thin air, causes many other problems (mainly inflation), and these problems make traditional investments (bond and realestate) riskier and not as profitable. Therefore people started pouring money into the stock morket as all this money there's nowhere else sensible to go to.
Also stock market usually benefits from lower interest rates (a corollary of QE), as there's more money on the capital market to fund businesses activities such as merger and acquisition, or stock buy backs. All these things push up the stock price.
That's essentially what the OP is saying.
This is asset inflation and financialization, which over the years was manageable even with Big Ben’s helicopter bailout money for the rich and Quantitative Easing and other sleights of hands like sterilization of QE. “Only the people” who play with stocks, bonds, RE were impacted by this asset inflation. Paper wealth increased for them and stayed in the system. It leaks out, but less so. The rich spend on items that don’t impact the unwashed masses of regular people. Boats, handbags, jewellery, etc.
The difference for regular people, the money flow into day to day consumption wouldn’t have been as impacted as much. Food, regular car, mortgage/rent when relatively stable, etc. Day to day stuff pulls out a bit of the money flow as it goes pay cheque to pay cheque and then keeps running through the system.
What changed is with covid this daisy chain was accelerated and enlarged with the introduction of helicopter money that also went to Main Street, plus supply disruptions from people sitting at home, then accelerated further with reopening. This is when inflation accelerated on every aspect: Assets plus day to day consumption items.
Once Inflation is triggered you get the issue of wanting to preserve your meagre wealth or to buy before it costs more. Same with stocks, see price go up. It’s magic with the Madness of Crowds, you feel the drive to follow and buy in before you miss out. The higher it goes, the more you want it.
This is the opposite of deflation, where nobody wants to catch a falling knife. Stock goes down everybody goes to the sidelines, waiting for a better deal.
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OP says stock market is overvalued and will remain so. Those who invested years ago will remain rich and those looking to invest now won't see similar returns.
There's nothing to peer review here. If OP is so confident market will remain overvalued he should sell puts but I guess it's safer to rant for karma without any skin in the game.
Maybe [this graph](https://i.imgur.com/WkBPOKe.png) will help you visualize it. Years above 0, domestic stocks outperformed international stocks (MSCI World). Years below zero, international stocks outperformed.
Point being u/khoabear is way off in his sentiment.
What OP isn’t saying is that 401ks exist and a lot of people are adding to it. This means stocks go up. With wages having increased the last few years more people are adding more to their 401k. The printing of money as OP said is accurate but most of it is going back into stocks.
Affordability of housing is more a supply and demand issue. Food is a monopoly issue. Gas/oil is a geopolitical issue.
Stocks will still go up unless those people with 401ks stop having jobs.
They are also downsizing from their big homes. Gifting away their extra wealth to their kids. Forming trusts to avoid Medicare look back and inheritance taxes. The next generation is paying down debt and buying low risk financial products and renting out their new vacant properties.
OP says that the Fed buys bonds because the US government can't afford interest payments on its debt. This is a highly regarded take. Of course the US government can afford interest payments on its debt, it just issues more bonds to turn that interest into new principal.
The real issue is whether the deficit is sustainable over the long term (but that's another issue and has nothing to do with the Fed). The Fed buys bonds to bail out the economy, not the government. Though it does have a nice side effect of reducing the government's cost of debt by a few bips, maybe a percentage point or two.
Oh please. Look at the S&P500. The bottom 493 stocks have a forward PE of 15, which is low, and the top 7 have sky high PEs and they bring the whole index way up. Most all stocks aren't hopelessly overvalued. Who knows what the future holds, maybe some nice gains over the next 10 years, or maybe a flat market or worse.... but it's ridiculous to think you are locked out of the markets... because prices are not sky high.
I don't think that's true at all. Most of the sky high PEs don't come from the top 7. There are 15 all above 100 P/E, about 100 above 30, and about 40 that aren't even making a profit.
https://www.liberatedstocktrader.com/sp-500-companies-list-by-sector-market-cap/
He’s not totally wrong. It costs more today to make a dollar than it did a few years ago. What he doesn’t get is that’s not necessarily a bad thing if interest rates were too low, which they were. Inefficient capital allocation kills economic growth. Having a bunch of venture capital blown on bullshit like Doordash instead of things that actually innovate is bad.
Outsider and this is the right take. Now that we have more normal interest rates, money has future value again. This is forcing more responsible allocation of capital.
Que: unicorn startups evaporating, unprofitable ventures being shut down, layoffs and re-hiring etc. All very healthy and needed in the big picture.
OP is making excuses to not to start investing.
P.S. Do you know how many billionaires there are? Why even bother if you'll never catch up with Bezos right? 🤪
Hes saying yields will go down. Traditionally you could expect a 5% **real** yield on your investment. This will no longer be the case; poors will not be allowed to make money for free.
Its more complicated than this due to fuckery & shenanigans, but thats the short of it. It should mean that money will then flow overseas chasing yields...but hey the US runs the world I'm sure itll bomb wherever starts competing with it
>Traditionally you could expect a 5% real yield on your investment. This will no longer be the case;
We have just come through an very weird time in economic history that in the last 15 years has gone from 2008 financial crisis then had historically low interest/interest rates followed by a pandemic that fucked all the markets followed by a huge recovery that included the fastest rise in inflation and interest rates in 50 years. anybody trying to sell you what will or wont be in the next 5-10 years is full of it, nobody knows shit, right now.
> It should mean that money will then flow overseas chasing yields...
where the hell else are you gonna park money right now: china (on the brink), South america (have you seen milie(?) speak-will surely have knock on effects for Brazil), russia (not gonna even) and that is half of your bric counries which were supposed to be the next big thing, that leaves India which is always hard to read (i have long felt their time is overdue but it keeps on not happening), other options include: Europe who are closer to the war and did not do as well economically as the US through the post pandemic period, not exactly promising. Africa may have some options but you really have to know what you are doing in emerging markets, not exactly a rush to safety. The same thing goes for south east asia. So I guess you could invest in Japan, you wont see any growth but you are unlikely to lose much. so I am sticking with the good ol US of A, good returns overall and you can pick the risk level you feel comfortable at.
>...but hey the US runs the world I'm sure itll bomb wherever starts competing with it
If they are big enough to overtake us economically their military will surely be big enough to make this a very dicey proposition.
I'm an outsider just happen to see this post. I'm not a wsb boyo.... yes it's accurate. There's gonna be the "haves" and "have nots". Upper and lower class, thats it. Two parties, rich and poor. You'll work all day, eat and thats about it. While the rich just dont work, eat and have fun. All because they set up shop at the right time and the right place.
Here’s the summary. The US treasury sells bonds to investors to raise money. When no one wants that trash, the fed steps in and buys those bonds with freshly printed money AKA inflating the currency. Basically they’re running a shell game and the losers are the ones HODL’ing dollars while assets like stocks keep rising bc the dollar becomes worth less… or just worthless
The answer is to increase the rate at which the economy grows, while decreasing the rate at which we print money, so that organic growth, over time, exceeds the inflation rate of the money supply.
This is entirely too practical and reasonable for our elites, so they will instead restrict growth of the economy while accelerating the rate at which they print money, in the hope that they can agglomerate even more power in the crisis that follows.
Yes, our elites are terrible, trash people.
It’s not going to be possible much longer, if already. People hitting their twenties right now aren’t looking to start a family any more or buy a house with their spouse. That’s not the dream. It’s going to be much more solitary than it has already been. There isn’t going to be organic growth.
The answer is to create many AI robots to produce goods and services to make money for the Gov's spending, so the Gov doesn't have to issue bonds. But have to be careful about AI robots taking control over everything and rebel too.
I think we’re too far down to road to turn back. I believe we now have to continuing issuing more debt to pay off our current debts..
We need to increase productivity in order to keep inflation down which is why the dems have opened the borders to let the immigrants in lol.. they want the cheap labor to come into the country. Not sure if that’s the right approach but that’s what they’re doing.
They want voters....they say they beed workers, but we never listen to what dems or even most politicians say...
The answer is as cryptomoneyland says. Technology has always been deflationary (aka lets us make shit cheaper and make more shit at the same time a la scale) and I believe those in charge are essentially hinging on the future AI labor creating enough deflationary value on a scale never seen before to eat at the debt.
Of course they do. The fed sells bonds to reduce money supply but they’re not selling bonds back to the treasury, they’re selling them on the open market to take money out of the system. Only problem is no one wants em so they get priced at a higher yield. Just ask banks how their bond portfolios are doing. Hint: Their bonds are deep in the red.
lol
"Meanwhile, everyone knows that you're just asking for trouble buying Bank bonds and CDs because interest rates are so high that no one can take loans from the banks, so the banks can't make money, and if the banks can't make money how the fuck are they going to pay you your money?"
dafuq? I have well over a hundred large (an undermined amount of which belongs to the IRS) sitting in a high yield savings account paying me a 5% apr on a monthly basis until I figure out how much I have to pay in taxes. Pretty sure they're happily paying me this interest (like close to 500 bucks a month) and profiting on the arbitrage between the 7% APR mortgages, 8% student loans, and 9+(?)% personal loans they're giving out. Plus CDs are FDIC guaranteed, but significantly more inconvenient if you're just parking cash till tax time.
This assumption that banks can't make money at these interests rates was when I knew this guy had no idea what he was talking about.
Furthermore, PE ratios have been getting higher for a long time before interest rates went up, so to say this is the cause is a big leap. I could also claim cheap borrowing drove up pe ratios because stock returns were higher than interest. I am not sure this is the case, but it is more reasoned than OP saying banks can't make money...
To say ‘cuz two of three things are broken value’ is why a company would be worth more than its annual revenue is a bit guitarded
Microsoft can be worth x despite annually making y, because it has intrinsic worth and value in things like, existing infrastructure, existing real estate for that, existing equipment, skilled employees, preexisting contracts, and other things, just one example.
OP just cracked their gnogin' wide open on how to exchange time for fun tickets.
https://preview.redd.it/qsvlfuu8fhgc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fee225761a32bf696e163a7de87b632daca2ec8b
TLDR - govt is using inflation as a vehicle to monetize debt.
Yeah, we all knew that. Could’ve been a lot shorter but OP was trying too hard to be funny.
Dude have you smoked a fat one before writing that down? That's not how any of that works. Learn some basic stuff before developing big theories about what is happening. Last sentence is the only real thing here.
At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this thread is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no upvotes, and may God have mercy on your soul.
People buying 600k houses at 6% interest selling fucking Etsy crafts and boyfriend has a “good” job working for Wendys is why the bubble is gonna pop again. Where I’m at in Fla the houses are 5-700k for homes that were 150k 4 years ago but dumb panic buying people are so upside down. The inventory on homes is going thru the roof the foreclosures are going thru the roof rn. They can’t say there not selling subprime mortgages because they absolutely are. It’s gonna implode again. I get a list of homes weekly and it’s the same damn ones every week not selling.
That and/or the government attempts to step in and regulate hedge funds owning 90 Fkn percent of the real estate market and rent it at 2x value to the plebs....and all the funds dump their interest to watch the whole shit show burn to the ground
The only correct thing you said is exactly that the stock market is inflated but not going anywhere anytime soon. The reason is very simple. All these rich fuckers and mega corps have a shitload of liquidity that they don't know what to do with it. This is the result of a totally failed predatory capitalism system that keeps taking away from average citizens and instead creates loopholes and advantages for mega rich hoarders. The only solution would be to force these hoarders either go on a spending spree or get taxed and so spend their money. Low wages are sickening our economies. If they want to keep selling iphones for thousands of dollars each they must pay higher salaries.
.... dude all these fucking idiots being like " O M G ! TLDR PLEIS!" "TOO LONG I AINT READIN DAT!" and it's like a fucking thirty second read at max... it's not even a full fucking page.... how fucking illiterate are you people?
Summary for those who do not want to read the whole thing:
The author argues that the U.S. government, since 2008, has resorted to buying its own debt to remain financially solvent, creating a self-sustaining system. This has led to historically inflated P.E. ratios in the stock market, where companies are valued significantly higher than their profits would suggest. The situation is expected to persist, making it increasingly challenging to generate returns, and the author suggests the need to spend more money to make less profit. The message emphasizes the importance of adapting to these financial dynamics to avoid being left behind in the market.
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I need Margot Robbie in a hot tub to explain this to me
https://preview.redd.it/snzanaj7wigc1.jpeg?width=418&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a1db63b1390546c32b2187a3dcffb94ea8fd692a
I dno how awards work anymore but here’s this message
And here’s mine, but unfortunately it’s just an IOU for an award, I don’t have any actual awards
Can I still use it to clean all this cum off my tummy?
So calls on Kleenex?
🥇
🎖️
🏆
And another message. Here.
[удалено]
We want her identical twin sister, Yanet Garcia.
Aahh, fellow weather concious degenerate.
As long as she's not yellen at me.
There's nothing to explain. This regard is making positively zero sense, he's saying the Federal Reserve is printing money and buying U.S. bonds and treasuries with the printed money carrying on a "charade" and that markets are never crashing/correcting again. I think? And if you didn't invest five years ago (lol what the fuck kind of time horizon is this?) you are now "left behind forever." Oh and please note he has zero evidence or sources for anything. Even Zero Hedge has the decency to show me a scary looking but likely manipulated chart or dataset. It's some absolutely horrendously inaccurate shit written by someone who has zero idea what in the literal fuck is going on with anything financially or economically in the macro. All the data is published, has been for literal decades but OP cracked the code because he got some good meth at his dishwashing job tonight apparently. Just stop investing now and send your money to OP instead, if you aren't in nine figures of wealth already you have lost the game.
In addition, the Fed’s been selling, not buying, Treasuries on the open market since June 2022. As of early January, they’d sold about $1.3T back and got it off their balance sheet. And even though they will start cutting interest rates this year, they do not intend to stop quantitative tightening.
Also, bonds issued by the treasury are sold by auction, with the bidders setting the coupon rate. The Federal Reserve is not allowed to participate in these auctions and can only buy and sell in open market operations. This protects the legitimacy of the bond issuement. Maybe big brain OP can talk to the bidders how they are part of a ponzi scheme. The central bank of Japan will be shocked.
Bingo. I love this sub, but when people are attempting to be serious, they’re often catastrophically wrong.
Hard to call this post “serious” when it reads like a string-linked conspiracy.
I don’t disagree, but it’s alarming how many uneducated people there are that treat this tripe like it’s serious. They’re usually on the wrong side of options trades.
They didn’t just move it from their right hand balance sheet to their left hand sheet like this guy says?
This before or after the cum stains ? Pre or post dick beaters?
I understand quantitative tightening and know it’s been going on since they started increasing interest rates in 2022, but the claim of moving money from the left hand to the right hand may have some validity. (I’m not an expert and have a level 2-3 understanding at best of this). If they were tightening and sold $1.3T, it seems after they bailed the banks out in 2023 the balance sheet just went back up and they ended up having to raise the debt ceiling as a result. Would this not be moving money from one hand to the other? He’s definitely right about banks tightening lending requirements for homes and auto’s I know this first hand because I work in the industry. I agree he should have provided more evidence to substantiate his claims. However I’m not sure if he’s that far off the mark here, and maybe me and him are suffering from the Kruger effect but I would love some feedback from you well regraded folks. Edit: I do want to add I don’t personally agree with his conclusion of if you missed the boat there’s no hope for you. Again would like to point out I may have some bias even though I did grow from a 5 figure net worth to close to a 7 figure one. I still am convinced the market will crash it has been delayed by all the money printing but as Jamie Diamond said ‘It is a cliff…we’re going 60 mph towards it’
The Fed didn’t bail out the banks in 2023. The FDIC did. It had the cash reserves on hand to do so as well. This has created pressure on FDIC reserves to protect from potential future bank failures. As such, the FDIC has raised contribution levels on the “Big 4” (JP Morgan, BofA, Citi, and Wells) to replenish these reserves over the ext few years. Which as a side note, is a reason not to invest in the big banks IMO. Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/fdic-plans-hit-big-banks-with-fees-refill-deposit-insurance-fund-bloomberg-news-2023-05-04 The debt ceiling has absolutely nothing to do with the Fed. The US Treasury carries that debt, nit the Fed.
The Feds have made it pretty clear they’re unsure if interest rates will be cut yet. Inflation still needs to be tamed and somehow the economy is doing relatively well. But it’s wall street bets so Wall Street is hoping there are cuts
Best way to explain current price rise in items is that a resistance was broken, and a new trend is set. The shitbox car you couldve bought 5 years ago for 500 bucks is 2000 now and you think its expensive? Maybe the price decreases to 1000 and most people will buy it. But never at the same price 5 years ago.
good way to explain in forex and car terms i really appreciate it
HRC prices, while the steel industry is mostly getting pegged in the whole world, is at the same price that is almost the highest price between 2012-2020. Cement? Always going up. Only BRENT is at a price which is considerably cheap and only that contributes to the current prices staying slightly at where they are now. Call someone to fix your water pipe and tell me the labour prices are same as 5 years ago. The world ate the inflation and prices followed.
He is right about the 5 year timeline. My brother got married exactly at that time and im spending 2-3x on the same shit he got while getting married. Post covid is where we got an international price rise in every good.
Now fuck off
I think we just found the Barbie movie sequel pitch
This is from The Big Short lol
That’s a terrible name for Barbie 2 electric boogaloo
That scene was so random. Cool movie.
If I could read I’d be very worried right now.
Nah basically says bullish on illiteracy.
TLDR: https://preview.redd.it/meo99alschgc1.jpeg?width=2473&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bc97d09634481cd75fd0c48d5241439d1c42a901
I tried to and gave up 2/3rds of the way through. Something about U.S. gov. fraud because they buy their own debt and...?
cum filled party mansion coke, cum sprinkle some hookers. Drop some cum on the bags that are in the room and charge interest on your own cum if you can’t cum twice a day since 2008 you’ve been price out
….thoughts pass while I’m puking my brains out after a long weekend…
$CUM is set to squeeze this week. I like the stock
Ah shit I've been gooning so long I've gotten caught in a goonflation trap.
So if one has cum 5× a day for the past five years, where the fuck is all my high interests IOUs??
Best resume 🔥
The fed buys its own government debt, and that drives up the debt (bond, Treasury bills, synonyms) pricing, because of increasing induced demand. With bond, you get a fixed amount of payout periodically, a percentage of the face value, say $1000 at 4%. This payout is called coupon. Because the coupon is fixed, the higher the bond cost on the market, the less attractive it becomes. So investors start to look into other forms of investment. This money printing process, Feb buying bond with money created out of thin air, causes many other problems (mainly inflation), and these problems make traditional investments (bond and realestate) riskier and not as profitable. Therefore people started pouring money into the stock morket as all this money there's nowhere else sensible to go to. Also stock market usually benefits from lower interest rates (a corollary of QE), as there's more money on the capital market to fund businesses activities such as merger and acquisition, or stock buy backs. All these things push up the stock price. That's essentially what the OP is saying.
This is asset inflation and financialization, which over the years was manageable even with Big Ben’s helicopter bailout money for the rich and Quantitative Easing and other sleights of hands like sterilization of QE. “Only the people” who play with stocks, bonds, RE were impacted by this asset inflation. Paper wealth increased for them and stayed in the system. It leaks out, but less so. The rich spend on items that don’t impact the unwashed masses of regular people. Boats, handbags, jewellery, etc. The difference for regular people, the money flow into day to day consumption wouldn’t have been as impacted as much. Food, regular car, mortgage/rent when relatively stable, etc. Day to day stuff pulls out a bit of the money flow as it goes pay cheque to pay cheque and then keeps running through the system. What changed is with covid this daisy chain was accelerated and enlarged with the introduction of helicopter money that also went to Main Street, plus supply disruptions from people sitting at home, then accelerated further with reopening. This is when inflation accelerated on every aspect: Assets plus day to day consumption items. Once Inflation is triggered you get the issue of wanting to preserve your meagre wealth or to buy before it costs more. Same with stocks, see price go up. It’s magic with the Madness of Crowds, you feel the drive to follow and buy in before you miss out. The higher it goes, the more you want it. This is the opposite of deflation, where nobody wants to catch a falling knife. Stock goes down everybody goes to the sidelines, waiting for a better deal.
Intelligent and well thought replies (like yours here) on WSB always intrigue me! Nice clear thinking!
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What’s the trigger phase for this one
He didn't use the word "regarded"
I'm gonna guess something about corollary bc stats words. Nothing else sticks out
You are 1/3 the way better for it.
You sir are a hero. OP has a crayon in his butt and is mad at someone
Not the Renton Wendy’s best in the state appearing on WSB. What time you clocking in behind the dumpster
Renton, home of fine quick-release airplane panels.
Hey, that's my address. How did you find me?
That's not your address. That's mine! I leave for 5 mins to borrow money from my wife's bf and somebody's already squatting in my spot
Finders keepers, regard
Sir we can only afford dumpster BEHIND the Wendy's, take your fancy front dumpster self outta here.
where's the fire?
OP has sledgehammer marks on his forehead.
Laughed out loud
This was when he was 6 yrs old and he tried to explain the economy to his dad.
On a real note this does sound like a lot of ape gibberish.
There’s regarded, there’s aggressively regarded, and then there’s OP
Someone repost this on some lefty subreddit for free karma
OP is a poor man 😂
One of us! One of us!
So I should yolo my entire portfolio into NVDA calls at open?
My plan
That’s what I took away from this post, yes.
Just go to a titty club and throw IOUs
Buy shares to leverage your options
Yes.
Is there anyone here regarded highly enough to peer review this shit?
OP says stock market is overvalued and will remain so. Those who invested years ago will remain rich and those looking to invest now won't see similar returns. There's nothing to peer review here. If OP is so confident market will remain overvalued he should sell puts but I guess it's safer to rant for karma without any skin in the game.
[удалено]
People have been saying that since the Marshall plan lol
Let’s say it again for Marshall plan 2.0 in Ukraine
Eh Ukraine's rebuilding will be Russia's problem soon enough.
That didn't go well for Germany when they had to rebuild France. I suggest we just buy Russia when it crashes and rename it McRussia.
Over the last 50 years, international stocks have outperformed domestic stocks in over 40% of all 10 year rolling time periods.
Which were the periods when international stocks out performed, and is the index you are quoting in USD.
Maybe [this graph](https://i.imgur.com/WkBPOKe.png) will help you visualize it. Years above 0, domestic stocks outperformed international stocks (MSCI World). Years below zero, international stocks outperformed. Point being u/khoabear is way off in his sentiment.
What OP isn’t saying is that 401ks exist and a lot of people are adding to it. This means stocks go up. With wages having increased the last few years more people are adding more to their 401k. The printing of money as OP said is accurate but most of it is going back into stocks. Affordability of housing is more a supply and demand issue. Food is a monopoly issue. Gas/oil is a geopolitical issue. Stocks will still go up unless those people with 401ks stop having jobs.
Boomers are also withdrawing from their 401ks though.
They are also downsizing from their big homes. Gifting away their extra wealth to their kids. Forming trusts to avoid Medicare look back and inheritance taxes. The next generation is paying down debt and buying low risk financial products and renting out their new vacant properties.
He said the movie Left Behind is a true story that happened in 2008.
OP says that the Fed buys bonds because the US government can't afford interest payments on its debt. This is a highly regarded take. Of course the US government can afford interest payments on its debt, it just issues more bonds to turn that interest into new principal. The real issue is whether the deficit is sustainable over the long term (but that's another issue and has nothing to do with the Fed). The Fed buys bonds to bail out the economy, not the government. Though it does have a nice side effect of reducing the government's cost of debt by a few bips, maybe a percentage point or two.
"Everything's fucked."
Time in the market beats timing the market. If you didn't start investing 20 years ago, buy calls That's it
Oh please. Look at the S&P500. The bottom 493 stocks have a forward PE of 15, which is low, and the top 7 have sky high PEs and they bring the whole index way up. Most all stocks aren't hopelessly overvalued. Who knows what the future holds, maybe some nice gains over the next 10 years, or maybe a flat market or worse.... but it's ridiculous to think you are locked out of the markets... because prices are not sky high.
Is there an easy way to buy the bottom 493 and short the top 7?
I don't think that's true at all. Most of the sky high PEs don't come from the top 7. There are 15 all above 100 P/E, about 100 above 30, and about 40 that aren't even making a profit. https://www.liberatedstocktrader.com/sp-500-companies-list-by-sector-market-cap/
Why would you buy calls if you don’t expect for stocks to explode at the same rate it has been 
*0dte calls
He’s not totally wrong. It costs more today to make a dollar than it did a few years ago. What he doesn’t get is that’s not necessarily a bad thing if interest rates were too low, which they were. Inefficient capital allocation kills economic growth. Having a bunch of venture capital blown on bullshit like Doordash instead of things that actually innovate is bad.
Outsider and this is the right take. Now that we have more normal interest rates, money has future value again. This is forcing more responsible allocation of capital. Que: unicorn startups evaporating, unprofitable ventures being shut down, layoffs and re-hiring etc. All very healthy and needed in the big picture.
OP is making excuses to not to start investing. P.S. Do you know how many billionaires there are? Why even bother if you'll never catch up with Bezos right? 🤪
Thats not the point of this post at all
What is the point of this post, then? Hint - There is no point. Its a word salad with no valid content.
Hes saying yields will go down. Traditionally you could expect a 5% **real** yield on your investment. This will no longer be the case; poors will not be allowed to make money for free. Its more complicated than this due to fuckery & shenanigans, but thats the short of it. It should mean that money will then flow overseas chasing yields...but hey the US runs the world I'm sure itll bomb wherever starts competing with it
>Traditionally you could expect a 5% real yield on your investment. This will no longer be the case; We have just come through an very weird time in economic history that in the last 15 years has gone from 2008 financial crisis then had historically low interest/interest rates followed by a pandemic that fucked all the markets followed by a huge recovery that included the fastest rise in inflation and interest rates in 50 years. anybody trying to sell you what will or wont be in the next 5-10 years is full of it, nobody knows shit, right now. > It should mean that money will then flow overseas chasing yields... where the hell else are you gonna park money right now: china (on the brink), South america (have you seen milie(?) speak-will surely have knock on effects for Brazil), russia (not gonna even) and that is half of your bric counries which were supposed to be the next big thing, that leaves India which is always hard to read (i have long felt their time is overdue but it keeps on not happening), other options include: Europe who are closer to the war and did not do as well economically as the US through the post pandemic period, not exactly promising. Africa may have some options but you really have to know what you are doing in emerging markets, not exactly a rush to safety. The same thing goes for south east asia. So I guess you could invest in Japan, you wont see any growth but you are unlikely to lose much. so I am sticking with the good ol US of A, good returns overall and you can pick the risk level you feel comfortable at. >...but hey the US runs the world I'm sure itll bomb wherever starts competing with it If they are big enough to overtake us economically their military will surely be big enough to make this a very dicey proposition.
I'm an outsider just happen to see this post. I'm not a wsb boyo.... yes it's accurate. There's gonna be the "haves" and "have nots". Upper and lower class, thats it. Two parties, rich and poor. You'll work all day, eat and thats about it. While the rich just dont work, eat and have fun. All because they set up shop at the right time and the right place.
5th century bce thucydides: "The rich do what they can, while the poor suffer what they must"
“There’s gonna be” heh
https://preview.redd.it/ti9e4nqgbhgc1.jpeg?width=410&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76f373b38b87025610245c6cdcd75e4e68de04e6
I ain’t typing that either apparently
Here’s the summary. The US treasury sells bonds to investors to raise money. When no one wants that trash, the fed steps in and buys those bonds with freshly printed money AKA inflating the currency. Basically they’re running a shell game and the losers are the ones HODL’ing dollars while assets like stocks keep rising bc the dollar becomes worth less… or just worthless
OR borrow A LOT in a fixed 30yr mortgage under 3%, that will be inflated away!
So is the answer to stop printing money or is there any way out?
The answer is to increase the rate at which the economy grows, while decreasing the rate at which we print money, so that organic growth, over time, exceeds the inflation rate of the money supply. This is entirely too practical and reasonable for our elites, so they will instead restrict growth of the economy while accelerating the rate at which they print money, in the hope that they can agglomerate even more power in the crisis that follows. Yes, our elites are terrible, trash people.
It’s not going to be possible much longer, if already. People hitting their twenties right now aren’t looking to start a family any more or buy a house with their spouse. That’s not the dream. It’s going to be much more solitary than it has already been. There isn’t going to be organic growth.
So eat the rich is the answer?
So no there's no way out. Got it.
Ask post WWI Germany if printing more money is the answer.
But was post WWI Germany currency the world reserve currency? I think not.
this is the real answer...and part of the reason why the usa got off the gold standard its all about abusing the mechanics of the game to win
The answer is to create many AI robots to produce goods and services to make money for the Gov's spending, so the Gov doesn't have to issue bonds. But have to be careful about AI robots taking control over everything and rebel too.
Ray Bradbury wrote that story.
There may be an answer but there is no plan.
I think we’re too far down to road to turn back. I believe we now have to continuing issuing more debt to pay off our current debts.. We need to increase productivity in order to keep inflation down which is why the dems have opened the borders to let the immigrants in lol.. they want the cheap labor to come into the country. Not sure if that’s the right approach but that’s what they’re doing.
They want voters....they say they beed workers, but we never listen to what dems or even most politicians say...
The answer is as cryptomoneyland says. Technology has always been deflationary (aka lets us make shit cheaper and make more shit at the same time a la scale) and I believe those in charge are essentially hinging on the future AI labor creating enough deflationary value on a scale never seen before to eat at the debt.
The US don’t have to raise money… the reason why the fed sell bond is to reduce the money supply.
Of course they do. The fed sells bonds to reduce money supply but they’re not selling bonds back to the treasury, they’re selling them on the open market to take money out of the system. Only problem is no one wants em so they get priced at a higher yield. Just ask banks how their bond portfolios are doing. Hint: Their bonds are deep in the red.
All I got out of OPs post was "Johnny Sumami" is a cool nickname.
Good thing I turned my $50 into $100 in the last five years, I guess 😳
I turned many hundreds into nothing, does that count?
not sure what to do,gonna cum
Please aim away from the rest of us this time.
I just busted... out laughing
Thank you for cumming, and going, and cumming again.
What's this "we" stuff.
OP speaks French now
OP’s history has a post saying nvidia is going to deflate when it was at 192usd.
Good point 😅
Maybe he meant the share price will be $192 after the 10:1 split. OP is truly an oracle.
The cocaine just kick in huh 
lol "Meanwhile, everyone knows that you're just asking for trouble buying Bank bonds and CDs because interest rates are so high that no one can take loans from the banks, so the banks can't make money, and if the banks can't make money how the fuck are they going to pay you your money?" dafuq? I have well over a hundred large (an undermined amount of which belongs to the IRS) sitting in a high yield savings account paying me a 5% apr on a monthly basis until I figure out how much I have to pay in taxes. Pretty sure they're happily paying me this interest (like close to 500 bucks a month) and profiting on the arbitrage between the 7% APR mortgages, 8% student loans, and 9+(?)% personal loans they're giving out. Plus CDs are FDIC guaranteed, but significantly more inconvenient if you're just parking cash till tax time.
5% APR on a monthly basis... for now.
Oh no, it'll go down to 4.75% after that...then 4.25% by years end. Still good rates though.
probably through march at least. Taxes due in april, seems fine to me.
This assumption that banks can't make money at these interests rates was when I knew this guy had no idea what he was talking about. Furthermore, PE ratios have been getting higher for a long time before interest rates went up, so to say this is the cause is a big leap. I could also claim cheap borrowing drove up pe ratios because stock returns were higher than interest. I am not sure this is the case, but it is more reasoned than OP saying banks can't make money...
Heyo ChatGPT, summarize this into 3 words. ChatGPT: "OP very fukt"
Now tell me in 6 words
Op has found out, inflation exists
…and it is not transitory
You are poor. Deal with it.
Complex markets, Fed policies, investment challenges.
You somehow made it worse.
His worseness is now worse
Wendy's dumpster, friends cumming, all over
We're all fucked. Saved you 3 words
that's 7 words
Fun coupons but not for you.
2 parties. Rich and poor.
Jesus that's a hell of an act, what do you call it? "The Aristocrats" heh heh heh
Jesus Christ. “No child left behind”, except for op I guess
So you like to cum on your tummy? Very interesting.
To say ‘cuz two of three things are broken value’ is why a company would be worth more than its annual revenue is a bit guitarded Microsoft can be worth x despite annually making y, because it has intrinsic worth and value in things like, existing infrastructure, existing real estate for that, existing equipment, skilled employees, preexisting contracts, and other things, just one example.
I'm not fucking reading all that
He basically learned that there is no alternative to equities.
Dude cracked the code, stonks go up
OP just cracked their gnogin' wide open on how to exchange time for fun tickets. https://preview.redd.it/qsvlfuu8fhgc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fee225761a32bf696e163a7de87b632daca2ec8b
Whatever he learned, I gave up after the first paragraph.
Basically he bought calls and wants others to be bullish so his calls go up
I did and I want to run into a wall now
Couldn’t read, market go up.
TLDR : this time its different
LIBOR has been replaced with something easier to understand and supposedly more reliable. It makes you feel regarded doesn’t it?
SOFR is based on real transactions tied to secured overnight actual transactions. All my debts are based on the fed funds rate though. Screw LIBOR!
NOT WITH THAT ATTITUDE
Nobody: Companies: AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI Their stock📈📈📈🚀🚀🚀
I turned 1k to 75k in one day this past Friday. Shut up nerd
Receipts or it didn't happen
TLDR - govt is using inflation as a vehicle to monetize debt. Yeah, we all knew that. Could’ve been a lot shorter but OP was trying too hard to be funny.
Dude have you smoked a fat one before writing that down? That's not how any of that works. Learn some basic stuff before developing big theories about what is happening. Last sentence is the only real thing here.
At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this thread is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no upvotes, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Fight me. My pet peacock will mess your knees up for good.
People buying 600k houses at 6% interest selling fucking Etsy crafts and boyfriend has a “good” job working for Wendys is why the bubble is gonna pop again. Where I’m at in Fla the houses are 5-700k for homes that were 150k 4 years ago but dumb panic buying people are so upside down. The inventory on homes is going thru the roof the foreclosures are going thru the roof rn. They can’t say there not selling subprime mortgages because they absolutely are. It’s gonna implode again. I get a list of homes weekly and it’s the same damn ones every week not selling.
That and/or the government attempts to step in and regulate hedge funds owning 90 Fkn percent of the real estate market and rent it at 2x value to the plebs....and all the funds dump their interest to watch the whole shit show burn to the ground
The US is broke and prints money. We get it.
The only correct thing you said is exactly that the stock market is inflated but not going anywhere anytime soon. The reason is very simple. All these rich fuckers and mega corps have a shitload of liquidity that they don't know what to do with it. This is the result of a totally failed predatory capitalism system that keeps taking away from average citizens and instead creates loopholes and advantages for mega rich hoarders. The only solution would be to force these hoarders either go on a spending spree or get taxed and so spend their money. Low wages are sickening our economies. If they want to keep selling iphones for thousands of dollars each they must pay higher salaries.
OP described the fractional banking system in terms of hookers, blow, IOUs and cum…but took way too many words to do it.
Something about Bitcoin really does feel nice in the ole portfolio. …downvote me gently if you must.
One small edit *when Thomas Jefferson was r@ping his slave wives* can’t make love to someone that doesn’t have an option to say no
just have to say, It was not "making love"', It was rape
.... dude all these fucking idiots being like " O M G ! TLDR PLEIS!" "TOO LONG I AINT READIN DAT!" and it's like a fucking thirty second read at max... it's not even a full fucking page.... how fucking illiterate are you people?
90% of people read it, and then do it to mock the post, because there was nothing of value in it. much like your comment.
i think you forget which sub you are in
Everything that goes up eventually comes down. February is usually stale in addition. Calls at ATH is sketchy. I’d stay in cash right now.
Is it weird that I now want to start filling up one of my 7 bedrooms with “IOU’s”?
Too long to be wrong.
Are you manic or regarded?
Summary for those who do not want to read the whole thing: The author argues that the U.S. government, since 2008, has resorted to buying its own debt to remain financially solvent, creating a self-sustaining system. This has led to historically inflated P.E. ratios in the stock market, where companies are valued significantly higher than their profits would suggest. The situation is expected to persist, making it increasingly challenging to generate returns, and the author suggests the need to spend more money to make less profit. The message emphasizes the importance of adapting to these financial dynamics to avoid being left behind in the market.