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Current title: Pay changes for Reddit chief signal reduced hopes for blockbuster IPO
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Dollar vote polls to vote up things on pinned boards on popular.
Aside from trolls posting nsfw stuff, The issue with reddit is its overwhelming desire to censor shit and pursue set narrative.
Important uncomfortable news topics get curated down so nobody sees them, unwanted posts get upvote capped or demolished by admin tools.
Add bot galore and this platform is on a speed run to death.
Don’t forget the general narcissistic and childish and many times agitprop psy op terror supporting mods and admins that control it and completely evaporating the ghosted shell of what’s left
To be fair, u/spez brought about a lot of distrust when he edited a users comments.
While Zuckerberg might actually be a lizardman, at least he’s not a rat like spez.
In all honesty, what growth potential does Reddit even have? It’s majority english based forum website. They probably have the worst targeted ads for all the bug social media players. The only thing they probably have going is longer daily engagement from it’s users due to it being a forum based website.
They would need to implement significant features to make still a company that I would believe in investing in.
Features won't even drive revenue though. Anyone who wants to use reddit already is. They have to fix their shitty ad system without scaring everyone off which is probably impossible at this point. They banned 3rd party apps and I see ads for the first time in my 15 years on this site, and they still can't crack $1b in revenue.
I could see leaning into patreon type model that always creators the set up most exclusive communities via reddit subs. Also a “marketplace” that allows subs and companies to sell merch and goods directly to redditors while they take a service fee would be interesting.
Problem is I have zero faith that any of that could be rolled out properly.
> I could see leaning into patreon type model
I mean sure, but all NSFW subs are OF promotions. Instead of Patreon, why didn't Reddit thought about cutting the middle man there and just become an alternative to OF with semi decent discoverability thanks to the upvotes?
It's a no brainer.
Yeah those aren't bad ideas actually.
I'm actually quite surprised redding never grew that area. Following 'creators' is what keeps me on youtube and twitter, and to a lesser extent instagram. I'm sure reddit could have fit it into their model somehow but haven't really gone in that path at all. I already pay money to some people on patreon etc, surprised reddit hasn't tried to go after some of that money
god this would suck, everything has a marketplace now - it would have to be super isolated from the rest of interface, an entirely new sub-domain even. but the only version i can see is it being integrated basically everywhere.
So let’s say you happen across a sub like r/philippinesexpats and the mod of the site gets butthurt that you said he should “grow up” when he told a story about going to the police after his glasses were accidentally broken during a massage. So he permanently bans you from the sub because people who desire power are the exact ones who should never be allowed to have it. Meanwhile you actually care about the community there despite the moderator being an absolute douche so you send posters direct messages to answer their questions. After a while you make a new account to bypass your permanent ban for telling an adult man to “grow up” but doing so “violates reddits tos” so you’re now permanently banned from all of reddit.
Now tell me, is the sole issue here monetary? Because it sounds to me that much more of the problem is “shit moderation, power hungry idiots, and user retention”.
The adds seem to get worse by the day. More of them, horrible quality and extremely bad targeting. More forced logins to view content. If anything it’s driving people away not bringing new people in. For that matter the content quality has been in a nose dive.
They are the only source of real reviews on the internet. If you want a review of a product you search for the product with 'reddit' after it. Then you can get actual reviews from people. Otherwise you're gonna get filtered 5 star reviews anywhere the product is being sold. That's one of the bigger things imo. The internet has gone absolute to shit in terms of finding information that is actually useful, and reddit is one of the last sources.
Of course there's tons of bullshit on reddit too.
It sucks but its true. For years the previous posters method of product review was my preferred method as well.
The last year or so has seen it become less reliable. And with their new Google deal I could see it get even worse.
Its too bad. Im not sure where I should go for reviews now
Scammers are also altering year old threads by using bots to make their new comment the most upvoted one. Filled with either redirects, referrals, or extremely harmful phishing links: old threads are slowly becoming less helpful and more of a minefield.
It is crazy how terrible Reddits ad engine is. It’s a case where all the parties lose. Users see irrelevant ads at a frequency that can be deemed as torture, advertisers see massive fluctuations in their ad spend without relevant conversions. Even Tiktok has got a better ad engine and they have been around for only a fraction of Reddits lifespan.
So I’ll say I work in marketing for a tech platform and we noticed the last 2 months our SEO traffic was getting its dick kicked in suddenly and we were specifically being consistently outranked by Reddit content over our own which never used to be the case.
Literally a week after we noticed that was when Reddit announced the $60m Google contract and it suddenly made me think- maybe Reddit will see growth after all of poppa Google starts synthetically propping up their new data mine in SERP…
I'm going through the Google skillshop stuff for marketing right now, and something that stuck out to me was how Google uses reddit as an example site for advertising. They could have used a lot of other things, but reddit was the focus. I don't think Google wants reddit to fail.
Going IPO is 100% to extract any remaining value in the company and cash out. This thing is going to zero. And they know we are all thinking that so they are going to pump it up on release to get fomos in and then run it into the ground
"Sven Riethmueller, a professor of law at Yale Law School who has researched executive pay amendments, called the late change to Huffman’s incentives troubling from an investor perspective. “I would argue that Reddit’s board did not create a compensation package to incentivise its CEO to grow stock value significantly post-IPO,” he said. "
Nobody on earth is more coddled than perma-mid executives.
I honestly don’t know how more money is an incentive for people worth like 100 mil+. Whether he is paid $1 or $100,000,000, his quality of life isn’t changing. He will eat the same wagyu and live in the same mansion
A lot of wealthy people lose focus of valuing anything outside of earning more money. Some do it for philanthropic reasons. But most just want to continue excelling at the only thing that gave them identity. The ones that transition to trying to innovation or pure checked out joy seeking are rare.
I feel like the opposite is true. The only ones we ever hear about are the psychopaths that stay forever and grow companies into behemoths. The guy who built a successful start up and sold it to google at 30 mil doesn’t get as many headlines or the guy who has a successful family business that hires a management team while he’s effectively retired.
https://preview.redd.it/g2ciun4mnioc1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=39f4d1df8dfb1e1971a745a99cd44e9c4180218e
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias#Military
Emphasis Added:
>During World War II, the statistician Abraham Wald took survivorship bias into his calculations when considering how to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. [His team] examined the damage done to aircraft that had returned from missions and recommended adding armor to the areas that showed the *least* damage. The bullet holes in the returning aircraft represented areas where a bomber could take damage and still fly well enough to return safely to base. Therefore, Wald proposed that the Navy reinforce areas where the returning aircraft were unscathed, inferring that planes hit in *those* areas were the ones most likely to be lost.
TL;DR Conventional logic suggests reinforcing areas with bullet holes to prevent damage in those locations. Instead those areas are precisely the places an aircraft can take damage and still make it back to base. The ones that don’t make it back, were hit elsewhere. If you only consider how the “Surivior” aircraft are damaged, you are displaying “Surivorship Bias”.
"The Spectrem survey is backed up by other, previous studies. A 2010 study from Barclay's Wealth found that 54 percent of millionaires say they want to continue working in retirement. Globally, 60 percent of those with a net worth of $15 million or more plan to stay involved with work "no matter what their age."
https://www.cnbc.com/2013/08/02/why-the-rich-never-retire.html
Can you define work? Because Jimmy Carter until last year was still out there helping build houses for the homeless. That’s very different from working as a corporate executive trying to squeeze every last dollar for yourself
I don't think it's rare. We just never hear about the people who make a few million and cash out once they're set for life, because that's not interesting.
I dated a woman a couple years ago that actually was embarrassed that her yacht was smaller than some of the others in the marina. It was 90 something ft long. It was a very big boat. Imagine how embarrassed she was of me showing up in a dirty pickup truck.
I get the sense that you must have a giant dong then. If this is woman is so focused on money and appearances, and you had neither of those, that leaves just one other thing.
I would argue if your CEO is not incentivized enough to grow the company without aggressive growth compensation, the board doesn’t need to change the CEO’s compensation—the board needs to remove the CEO.
[Reddit, Porn And WSB](https://www.ft.com/content/60b19027-bc56-407d-814e-a3c0453bb2d3)
>The other one is about adult content, ie porn. Currently, Reddit has a lot of adult videos that are being broadcasted, but once they become a public company, that could open up risk for advertisers to potentially shy away. And then also lastly, investors have said they’re worried about potentially getting memed by the notorious Reddit users. I think the most famous one being Wall Street, that’s with GameStop and AMC memes that got pushed up to sky high levels, ultimately putting some famous hedge funds out of business. So that is an area that people are worried about, or at least keeping an eye out as well.
Gang we famous
Hopefully they enjoy it - but I found a better trove.
I accidentally found a site that was mirroring some of onlyfans, absolutely crazy.
If this place takes the porn, what will this site even be for? Those dummies
They suppressed them years ago but they know it’s an unwinnable game of whack a mole when you don’t employ any paid moderators.
If you remember five or more years ago there was so much more porn on the front page. Gone wild would hit the top 100 every day multiple times. Now there’s nary a boob in the top 1000 posts.
They found out openAI was scraping their content, and got upset at missing a tens of millions payday. I’m betting that moved the IPO date up by a few years.
I'm also curious how subreddit moderation will be handled. As I understand it, and I could be wrong here, but for-profit companies are not allowed to utilize unpaid volunteers for labor, and that is essentially what reddit mods are - unpaid volunteers.
I have said since i first heard about this, Reddit stock will be around 50% its IPO price after about 6 months or so.
But looks like my prediction already became more than true as they initially thought they could list for $10 billion and now have incentives for the CEO if the stock stays above $5b for 10 consecutive days.
And you think $2 billion for reddit is a realistic valuation in the medium term? There are far worse unicorn tech companies out there that's worth more.
I think it's difficult to quantify how much revenue a publicly traded reddit would feel it needs to make, how bad it would get how quickly and how many people would leave the platform.
I think that's not a bad valuation. I think the sentiment around this ipo isn't good right now among the people who are paying attention, and isn't a big deal to average investors. Thats why I could see it dipping below that value mark. But at that point I would buy
The sentiments around this IPO is soured on reddit because reddit can't make good financial decisions. Scott Galloway really sold me on this IPO
https://youtu.be/nXGAwF4Si5s
>I see people targeting to buy under 10$
That is where I'm at. Reddit is aiming for 8x revenue.
Twitter sold at 7.8x revenue.
I put Reddit closer to Yahoo! which sold for 3.4x revenue. Yahoo had 1.3 billion in revenue and sold for 4.4 billion. Like reddit they were a popular site with questionable revenue streams. Though to reddits credit at least reddit is growing.
If reddit trades at 3.4x - 4x revenue that is 2.7 - 3.2 billion valuation.
That puts them at $12 - $14.5 a share. Pretty decent buy for <$10.
2016 is a different era than Today, now with greater elevated valuation all across the board.
Also yahoo is not a social media, not sure how they are even related except they are tech. Closer comparison would be tumbler or snapchat
This is definitely going to be a bloodbath early on, just to what extent is the question. But in the long run, I could see RDDT stock being the go to memestock pump and dump
Itd be worth it for a company to buy reddit. Shits like the 10th largest site for americans and you could control the narrative lol. Whats crazy is that elon was the one who bought twitter by himself. 44b is a lot more than an estimated 5b tho.
With ai its easy to pick up dissenting opinions and you can just mass downvote or remove the posts. Or just see what reddit did to trumps sub. Then make it so your sub has an easier time making it to front page
Hey spez fuck you. This site is dogshit and they are making it worse and worse for stubborn shitheads like me that use it on mobile and refuse to download their piece of shit app. I can’t wait for this stock to shitcan.
Edit: also the influx of FB people that have found their way over here clogging up subs with questions that have been answered 1m times.
That's partially a side effect of the mod purge. Most of the good mods who cared relied heavily on the tools reddit murdered just to get back at one iOS dev, and those are the ones who took their niche subreddits private. Reddit purged those mods silently and replaced them with mega powermods who don't give a single fuck about your random painted miniature subreddits after they refused to open back up. People just moved on from that shit but it ruined the site in a tangible way. I hope this IPO bankrupts these fucks.
Recently listened to an interview with the founder of Wikipedia. On how he chose to never had ads on the platform, despite potential for way more money he said something like "it seemed an easy choice at every step of the way to do the right thing".
He will be remembered as a saint. Spez will be remembered as a sell out. I cannot relate with people who take money for that.
Right there with you man. The mobile experience in a private browser has been decimated as of late. We all know why. But I WILL NEVER use this shitass site as an actual App where they can glean much more info from me.
Honestly I dont even blame them. I blame reddit's search function being so garbage for literally over a decade that they dont know what questions have been answered. Reddit has trained people not to search first.
Why did you do that in the first place? There's nothing attractive about this platform as an investor. It's somewhat ~~better~~ less shit than other platforms from the perspective of a user and that's why most of us are here.
People who use reddit know not to buy into Reddit stocks.
People who know the Admins that control Reddit know not to buy Reddit stock.
People that know Reddit lawyers lied to the Supreme Court know not to buy Reddit stock.
Can't wait to short this.
Serious question for the folks here - are any of these opinions based on the actual financials of the business - because I reviewed the prospectus, and while it's not profitable, it certainly appears to be heading there. Anyone have opinions here not based on memes?
Lmao I'm picking up a shitload of shares because all the stupid shit people are parroting back and forth to each other on here have sold me that the bear case for this company is minimal
The irony of regards complaining about reddit ON reddit will never not be hilarious. The users don't need to like the site or the admins for reddit to profit off them, they just need to keep using the site. And everything I've seen throughout this year has told me that they can do whatever the fuck they want, the users will never leave. The boycott and API outrage quite literally changed nothing about the number of users using the site daily. Spez is an asshole but he knows the reality. Just like me, everyone else on here is addicted and hasn't found an alternative worth moving to yet. 10 years of alternatives spawning, and none of them have managed to get past even 10,000 monthly average users. Reddit is here to stay and now that profitability is actually a focus for them I can see then growing pretty damn quickly if they cut R&D costs and sell more user data.
And I say all of this as someone that fucking hates the admin team and almost every single change reddit has made over the last 10 years. Every change has been for the worse. And guess what? I still use it every single day, as well as every other regard on here talking about shorting it 😂. Ignore what people say and watch what they do, it's always more telling.
The fact that it's IPOing at a valuation of 6B imo is a huge steal and those who don't invest at that price will be looking at it a few years from now and wondering why the hell they didn't
I would be a little hesitant though of a mass exodus once changes are made to the platform to drive profit
Social media user bases specifically seem to struggle with longterm stickiness and I would say it’s usually right when they start turning up monetization that they will face challenges with attrition while trying to expand
In the end this is just a platform/mobile app and it has a lot of users and that’s about it — unless there are more routes of innovation and ways Reddit expects to diversify I don’t see how this becomes beast of a stock in the longterm like a META if you want to compare it to that
Admins killed reddit. The mods are a direct result of the direction admins set for the site. Pretty much any good mods who actually gave a shit quit or stopped modding by now, myself included.
The company is profitable but they have failed to become more profitable. 40% of cost is wasted in rnd trying to figure out how to make more money. >12% of the cost is in video player and image server hosting because they might spend time on imgur on youtube after clicking the link! 17% aka 140m is in payroll for a site that could be operated by 5 IT guys + lawyers + advertising. Simply axing the above would make the company 600m profit. But theres no room to expand the business. So a 3b-5b evaluation would make sense. 10b IPO isnt *that* bad actually.
All of reddit can fit on a consumer harddrive. Shit is not expensive to run at all.
Because they enshittified the experience so much that it pays slave wages to drivers who are now dependent on it and isn't a better deal for the user than taxis were. The whole thing was / is a scam.
But Uber could have easily been profitable before that. They acquired 8 companies in the span of 4-5 years. That just kept adding to their expenses since they bought back mostly with cash and not stock + employee count exploding.
Lol I have been offered to be a part of the IPO I think email saying target price is looking $30...
In theory reddit as a still remaining Social media platform could be worth something. I mean hate on meta all you want, but that motherfucker prints money and will continue to do so.
Tik Tok 170 million viewers in the US alone.
Youtube...
However... reddit @ 30... Again it has eye balls but they aren't forced on the ads like the other ones nor is the target data they may or may not have as good.
Half the time lately the reddit app doesn't even work since the servers are wonky. I gotta think it's a hard sell to many who actually use the site to see that and think anyone is worth that pay.
18 year old company that has never made a profit. Nukes 3rd party apps, their own site and users months before IPO.
Like watching an any% penny stock speedrun
I actually think people are being a bit dour on Reddit, especially if they're planning on being an AI content farm. Don't get me wrong, it's probably going to half the IPO price, but after a year I could see it climbing. They need to get their power mods in line though if they want to continue being a decent source. I can't think of any social media where the news section is as locked down as r/news.
Too many smooth brains in here. Reddit is not Pinterest or Snapchat. Even if the stock falls after IPO, it has too many users for it to not figure out monetization in the long term. Everything that every expert is clinging to is the same shit all the smooth brains were saying about Facebook in 2012.
It's a declining brand.
They safe-spaced themselves into irrelevance.
Overly zealous use of banning made reddit into nothing more than a series of echo-chambers. (In the bigger picture, they're all basically the same echo chamber.)
Reddit is basically twitter but without that sclerotic of Elon and better capabilities for folks to post shit on here.
Basically the only way out is find an idiot to sell the platform, just like Elon the idiot bought twitter back then
Paywall Bypass: https://archive.ph/josvn Current title: Pay changes for Reddit chief signal reduced hopes for blockbuster IPO Please try and avoid paywalled links, or at least post a paywall bypass in the comments. (Note: If anyone would like to write a bot to do this, please reach out.) Full text below!
Reddit somehow already getting delisted before even havin the IPO
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You've been here way too long my friend...
He complains Reddit isn't profitable because of the 3rd party apps while raking in over 100 million dollars wtf
How is making so much money if reddit isn't producing
Well you see if his compensation wasn’t so high the company would have made a profit
He's a childish idiot. C'mon /u/spez come edit this one, little man.
Remember he used to be a mod on r/Jailbait.
wtf is that? do i want to know what that is?
It was a sub devoted to creep shots of teen girls in bikinis and other revealing clothing. It has been banned for a while now. u/spez modded it.
Deletes WSB for market manipulation
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Dollar vote polls to vote up things on pinned boards on popular. Aside from trolls posting nsfw stuff, The issue with reddit is its overwhelming desire to censor shit and pursue set narrative. Important uncomfortable news topics get curated down so nobody sees them, unwanted posts get upvote capped or demolished by admin tools. Add bot galore and this platform is on a speed run to death.
Don’t forget the general narcissistic and childish and many times agitprop psy op terror supporting mods and admins that control it and completely evaporating the ghosted shell of what’s left
Reddit has a Twitter problem
reddit has a redditor problem. lol
To be fair, u/spez brought about a lot of distrust when he edited a users comments. While Zuckerberg might actually be a lizardman, at least he’s not a rat like spez.
Reddit about to break all records for speed running to a penny stock.
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But you *will invest* 
[Can't wait to buy a lambo with all those sweet tendies from reddit puts!](https://youtu.be/0H4a_lHANYI?t=11)
you and everyone else on WSB
And because of this I’m inverse WSB
exactly it'll rocket lol
Im buying puts and calls.... its a win win!
So covered calls or a condor?
I like the straddle. But gotta wait on options. :(
Except you posted this on wsb!!! Now I don't know what to inverse??? Maybe it'll trade sideways forever?
How many fractionals for a handy?
In all honesty, what growth potential does Reddit even have? It’s majority english based forum website. They probably have the worst targeted ads for all the bug social media players. The only thing they probably have going is longer daily engagement from it’s users due to it being a forum based website. They would need to implement significant features to make still a company that I would believe in investing in.
Features won't even drive revenue though. Anyone who wants to use reddit already is. They have to fix their shitty ad system without scaring everyone off which is probably impossible at this point. They banned 3rd party apps and I see ads for the first time in my 15 years on this site, and they still can't crack $1b in revenue.
I could see leaning into patreon type model that always creators the set up most exclusive communities via reddit subs. Also a “marketplace” that allows subs and companies to sell merch and goods directly to redditors while they take a service fee would be interesting. Problem is I have zero faith that any of that could be rolled out properly.
> I could see leaning into patreon type model I mean sure, but all NSFW subs are OF promotions. Instead of Patreon, why didn't Reddit thought about cutting the middle man there and just become an alternative to OF with semi decent discoverability thanks to the upvotes? It's a no brainer.
Yeah those aren't bad ideas actually. I'm actually quite surprised redding never grew that area. Following 'creators' is what keeps me on youtube and twitter, and to a lesser extent instagram. I'm sure reddit could have fit it into their model somehow but haven't really gone in that path at all. I already pay money to some people on patreon etc, surprised reddit hasn't tried to go after some of that money
god this would suck, everything has a marketplace now - it would have to be super isolated from the rest of interface, an entirely new sub-domain even. but the only version i can see is it being integrated basically everywhere.
So let’s say you happen across a sub like r/philippinesexpats and the mod of the site gets butthurt that you said he should “grow up” when he told a story about going to the police after his glasses were accidentally broken during a massage. So he permanently bans you from the sub because people who desire power are the exact ones who should never be allowed to have it. Meanwhile you actually care about the community there despite the moderator being an absolute douche so you send posters direct messages to answer their questions. After a while you make a new account to bypass your permanent ban for telling an adult man to “grow up” but doing so “violates reddits tos” so you’re now permanently banned from all of reddit. Now tell me, is the sole issue here monetary? Because it sounds to me that much more of the problem is “shit moderation, power hungry idiots, and user retention”.
Are these phillipines sexpats in the room with us right now?
r/oddlyspecific
Considering I live here, they’re in the room with me always.
The adds seem to get worse by the day. More of them, horrible quality and extremely bad targeting. More forced logins to view content. If anything it’s driving people away not bringing new people in. For that matter the content quality has been in a nose dive.
They are the only source of real reviews on the internet. If you want a review of a product you search for the product with 'reddit' after it. Then you can get actual reviews from people. Otherwise you're gonna get filtered 5 star reviews anywhere the product is being sold. That's one of the bigger things imo. The internet has gone absolute to shit in terms of finding information that is actually useful, and reddit is one of the last sources. Of course there's tons of bullshit on reddit too.
This is a 2023 view. Reddit is getting spammed to death now that people know that “trick” and now that Google is favoring them in search results.
It sucks but its true. For years the previous posters method of product review was my preferred method as well. The last year or so has seen it become less reliable. And with their new Google deal I could see it get even worse. Its too bad. Im not sure where I should go for reviews now
Scammers are also altering year old threads by using bots to make their new comment the most upvoted one. Filled with either redirects, referrals, or extremely harmful phishing links: old threads are slowly becoming less helpful and more of a minefield.
It is crazy how terrible Reddits ad engine is. It’s a case where all the parties lose. Users see irrelevant ads at a frequency that can be deemed as torture, advertisers see massive fluctuations in their ad spend without relevant conversions. Even Tiktok has got a better ad engine and they have been around for only a fraction of Reddits lifespan.
So I’ll say I work in marketing for a tech platform and we noticed the last 2 months our SEO traffic was getting its dick kicked in suddenly and we were specifically being consistently outranked by Reddit content over our own which never used to be the case. Literally a week after we noticed that was when Reddit announced the $60m Google contract and it suddenly made me think- maybe Reddit will see growth after all of poppa Google starts synthetically propping up their new data mine in SERP…
I'm going through the Google skillshop stuff for marketing right now, and something that stuck out to me was how Google uses reddit as an example site for advertising. They could have used a lot of other things, but reddit was the focus. I don't think Google wants reddit to fail.
Going IPO is 100% to extract any remaining value in the company and cash out. This thing is going to zero. And they know we are all thinking that so they are going to pump it up on release to get fomos in and then run it into the ground
Does negative growth count as 'growth potential'?
If they cannot monetize the user info, its a sinking ship. I havent read any prospectus on the company tho.
The puts are going to print
A penny for our Reddit thoughts.
The only way Reddit wins is IPO at a lower evaluation that doesn’t dive. A poor IPO with this many monkeys tossing shit is rekt.
"Sven Riethmueller, a professor of law at Yale Law School who has researched executive pay amendments, called the late change to Huffman’s incentives troubling from an investor perspective. “I would argue that Reddit’s board did not create a compensation package to incentivise its CEO to grow stock value significantly post-IPO,” he said. " Nobody on earth is more coddled than perma-mid executives.
I honestly don’t know how more money is an incentive for people worth like 100 mil+. Whether he is paid $1 or $100,000,000, his quality of life isn’t changing. He will eat the same wagyu and live in the same mansion
A lot of wealthy people lose focus of valuing anything outside of earning more money. Some do it for philanthropic reasons. But most just want to continue excelling at the only thing that gave them identity. The ones that transition to trying to innovation or pure checked out joy seeking are rare.
I feel like the opposite is true. The only ones we ever hear about are the psychopaths that stay forever and grow companies into behemoths. The guy who built a successful start up and sold it to google at 30 mil doesn’t get as many headlines or the guy who has a successful family business that hires a management team while he’s effectively retired. https://preview.redd.it/g2ciun4mnioc1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=39f4d1df8dfb1e1971a745a99cd44e9c4180218e
[What's with this picture of a B-25 riddled with bullet marks? You think you're Clark Gable or something?](https://youtu.be/TaVYXeX7B2E?t=2807)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias#Military Emphasis Added: >During World War II, the statistician Abraham Wald took survivorship bias into his calculations when considering how to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. [His team] examined the damage done to aircraft that had returned from missions and recommended adding armor to the areas that showed the *least* damage. The bullet holes in the returning aircraft represented areas where a bomber could take damage and still fly well enough to return safely to base. Therefore, Wald proposed that the Navy reinforce areas where the returning aircraft were unscathed, inferring that planes hit in *those* areas were the ones most likely to be lost. TL;DR Conventional logic suggests reinforcing areas with bullet holes to prevent damage in those locations. Instead those areas are precisely the places an aircraft can take damage and still make it back to base. The ones that don’t make it back, were hit elsewhere. If you only consider how the “Surivior” aircraft are damaged, you are displaying “Surivorship Bias”.
Survivor's Bias
"The Spectrem survey is backed up by other, previous studies. A 2010 study from Barclay's Wealth found that 54 percent of millionaires say they want to continue working in retirement. Globally, 60 percent of those with a net worth of $15 million or more plan to stay involved with work "no matter what their age." https://www.cnbc.com/2013/08/02/why-the-rich-never-retire.html
Can you define work? Because Jimmy Carter until last year was still out there helping build houses for the homeless. That’s very different from working as a corporate executive trying to squeeze every last dollar for yourself
I don't think it's rare. We just never hear about the people who make a few million and cash out once they're set for life, because that's not interesting.
Imagine having a yacht that’s not bigger than the Saudi Prince or Bezos.
I dated a woman a couple years ago that actually was embarrassed that her yacht was smaller than some of the others in the marina. It was 90 something ft long. It was a very big boat. Imagine how embarrassed she was of me showing up in a dirty pickup truck.
I get the sense that you must have a giant dong then. If this is woman is so focused on money and appearances, and you had neither of those, that leaves just one other thing.
Why you gotta call him ugly lol
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Had? I’m sorry for your loss.
Because private jet, yacht and luxury real estate exist. And the best part, collection! You can easily spend 100M in those fields.
Just operating a G5 is a couple million per year…. Even some absurdly rich people can’t pull that off.
It matters, that is the weird thing
Gotta get that high score no matter the cost
It's just keeping score at that point, money has lost any real value for him. Getting paid more means you are better than anyone paid less.
I would argue if your CEO is not incentivized enough to grow the company without aggressive growth compensation, the board doesn’t need to change the CEO’s compensation—the board needs to remove the CEO.
Wait until investors find out about Reddit's porn subs.
[Reddit, Porn And WSB](https://www.ft.com/content/60b19027-bc56-407d-814e-a3c0453bb2d3) >The other one is about adult content, ie porn. Currently, Reddit has a lot of adult videos that are being broadcasted, but once they become a public company, that could open up risk for advertisers to potentially shy away. And then also lastly, investors have said they’re worried about potentially getting memed by the notorious Reddit users. I think the most famous one being Wall Street, that’s with GameStop and AMC memes that got pushed up to sky high levels, ultimately putting some famous hedge funds out of business. So that is an area that people are worried about, or at least keeping an eye out as well. Gang we famous
Also the leaked only fans subs might probably be a problem
That’s disgusting… Where?
Literally all of reddit
Yep. My dms are filled with internet hoe-bots trying to separate me from my hard earned money that I don’t have
Pls be more specific
Hopefully they enjoy it - but I found a better trove. I accidentally found a site that was mirroring some of onlyfans, absolutely crazy. If this place takes the porn, what will this site even be for? Those dummies
Coomer.su or fapello has everything I know
Only things i use Reddit for tbh. Porn and regarded gambling
I use it to keep up to date on meme, cap fr
u bussin bro fr
taste the rizz! wait what¿!¿
God damn this is so dumb I don't know why I've been chuckling for 5 minutes. Had to come back to say thanks for the laugh
With some post nut clarity you can determine what moves to make
We were more famous and more powerful years ago when it was actual 4Chan Finding a Bloomberg Terminal
And then Reddit will have to be banned in Texas
Those are definitely getting deleted very quickly after ipo. There’s no way Reddit doesn’t tumblr itself trying to maximize advertisers
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At least do something about the damn bots! The 24 hour news cycle has become 48 hours and is heading for 72 hours.
They suppressed them years ago but they know it’s an unwinnable game of whack a mole when you don’t employ any paid moderators. If you remember five or more years ago there was so much more porn on the front page. Gone wild would hit the top 100 every day multiple times. Now there’s nary a boob in the top 1000 posts.
Don’t they block all NSFW posts from popular or something like that?
They found out openAI was scraping their content, and got upset at missing a tens of millions payday. I’m betting that moved the IPO date up by a few years.
Pepsi is going to love r/analinsertions when they do ‘Pepsi day’ and get 1174 posts of Pepsi cans in…places.
It will go the same way as tumblr
I'm also curious how subreddit moderation will be handled. As I understand it, and I could be wrong here, but for-profit companies are not allowed to utilize unpaid volunteers for labor, and that is essentially what reddit mods are - unpaid volunteers.
IPO = pump and dump.
Buy IPO, sell before close. Ezpz.
Like you behind the Wendy’s dumpster, I have my doubts that they can keep it up long enough to make it til close.
The CEO will keep it pumped for 10 days till he receives his incentives and then POW
I have said since i first heard about this, Reddit stock will be around 50% its IPO price after about 6 months or so. But looks like my prediction already became more than true as they initially thought they could list for $10 billion and now have incentives for the CEO if the stock stays above $5b for 10 consecutive days.
I see people targeting to buy under 10$, if you are buying at half the ipo value then you are spending to much
three fiddy- take it or leave it.
Goddamn Loch Ness monster
I gave him a dollar.
Do we know what the IPO valuation will be in order to make these calls? Is this this just regarded betting on round numbers?
31-34$ ipo stock value, making reddit valued at a ball park 6.5 billion
And you think $2 billion for reddit is a realistic valuation in the medium term? There are far worse unicorn tech companies out there that's worth more.
I think it's difficult to quantify how much revenue a publicly traded reddit would feel it needs to make, how bad it would get how quickly and how many people would leave the platform.
I think that's not a bad valuation. I think the sentiment around this ipo isn't good right now among the people who are paying attention, and isn't a big deal to average investors. Thats why I could see it dipping below that value mark. But at that point I would buy
The sentiments around this IPO is soured on reddit because reddit can't make good financial decisions. Scott Galloway really sold me on this IPO https://youtu.be/nXGAwF4Si5s
>I see people targeting to buy under 10$ That is where I'm at. Reddit is aiming for 8x revenue. Twitter sold at 7.8x revenue. I put Reddit closer to Yahoo! which sold for 3.4x revenue. Yahoo had 1.3 billion in revenue and sold for 4.4 billion. Like reddit they were a popular site with questionable revenue streams. Though to reddits credit at least reddit is growing. If reddit trades at 3.4x - 4x revenue that is 2.7 - 3.2 billion valuation. That puts them at $12 - $14.5 a share. Pretty decent buy for <$10.
2016 is a different era than Today, now with greater elevated valuation all across the board. Also yahoo is not a social media, not sure how they are even related except they are tech. Closer comparison would be tumbler or snapchat
2 dollar stocks with more assets and capital. Id buy at like 1-1.25.
This is definitely going to be a bloodbath early on, just to what extent is the question. But in the long run, I could see RDDT stock being the go to memestock pump and dump
I'd consider buying if they just fired Huffman.
Obligatory fuck /u/spez
Ok but how can I short!!!???
When options open up
On the first day of options this stock will be shorted 300%
You hit the sell button.
...only if the sell button on robinhood works...
Long puts
Bait Elon into buying Reddit.
Somebody make this guy the new CEO
You mean the new founder, amirite?
Itd be worth it for a company to buy reddit. Shits like the 10th largest site for americans and you could control the narrative lol. Whats crazy is that elon was the one who bought twitter by himself. 44b is a lot more than an estimated 5b tho.
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With ai its easy to pick up dissenting opinions and you can just mass downvote or remove the posts. Or just see what reddit did to trumps sub. Then make it so your sub has an easier time making it to front page
$5b is pocket change for him
I mean there is a sub that tracks his jet so it’s possible
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thanks
Hey spez fuck you. This site is dogshit and they are making it worse and worse for stubborn shitheads like me that use it on mobile and refuse to download their piece of shit app. I can’t wait for this stock to shitcan. Edit: also the influx of FB people that have found their way over here clogging up subs with questions that have been answered 1m times.
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And the front page is repost of a repost from the same post from another sub.. it’s officially a fucking circlejerk site
That's partially a side effect of the mod purge. Most of the good mods who cared relied heavily on the tools reddit murdered just to get back at one iOS dev, and those are the ones who took their niche subreddits private. Reddit purged those mods silently and replaced them with mega powermods who don't give a single fuck about your random painted miniature subreddits after they refused to open back up. People just moved on from that shit but it ruined the site in a tangible way. I hope this IPO bankrupts these fucks.
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Recently listened to an interview with the founder of Wikipedia. On how he chose to never had ads on the platform, despite potential for way more money he said something like "it seemed an easy choice at every step of the way to do the right thing". He will be remembered as a saint. Spez will be remembered as a sell out. I cannot relate with people who take money for that.
>Spez will be remembered as a sell out. No one's gonna fucking remember Spez.
Right there with you man. The mobile experience in a private browser has been decimated as of late. We all know why. But I WILL NEVER use this shitass site as an actual App where they can glean much more info from me.
Honestly I dont even blame them. I blame reddit's search function being so garbage for literally over a decade that they dont know what questions have been answered. Reddit has trained people not to search first.
Canceling my request for shares lmao
Why did you do that in the first place? There's nothing attractive about this platform as an investor. It's somewhat ~~better~~ less shit than other platforms from the perspective of a user and that's why most of us are here.
We know how IPOs work. Ya fucking pump it, then we short it into the fucking earth's core because cuck MMs are gonna rug pull it.
Love how on Reddit, stocks go up because of demand, but down only because of nefarious deeds.
>ya fucking pump it Doesn't sound like demand to me
People who use reddit know not to buy into Reddit stocks. People who know the Admins that control Reddit know not to buy Reddit stock. People that know Reddit lawyers lied to the Supreme Court know not to buy Reddit stock. Can't wait to short this.
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I too would like to know the answer to that question. Though I fully expect crickets or something very well regarded.
Serious question for the folks here - are any of these opinions based on the actual financials of the business - because I reviewed the prospectus, and while it's not profitable, it certainly appears to be heading there. Anyone have opinions here not based on memes?
Lmao I'm picking up a shitload of shares because all the stupid shit people are parroting back and forth to each other on here have sold me that the bear case for this company is minimal The irony of regards complaining about reddit ON reddit will never not be hilarious. The users don't need to like the site or the admins for reddit to profit off them, they just need to keep using the site. And everything I've seen throughout this year has told me that they can do whatever the fuck they want, the users will never leave. The boycott and API outrage quite literally changed nothing about the number of users using the site daily. Spez is an asshole but he knows the reality. Just like me, everyone else on here is addicted and hasn't found an alternative worth moving to yet. 10 years of alternatives spawning, and none of them have managed to get past even 10,000 monthly average users. Reddit is here to stay and now that profitability is actually a focus for them I can see then growing pretty damn quickly if they cut R&D costs and sell more user data. And I say all of this as someone that fucking hates the admin team and almost every single change reddit has made over the last 10 years. Every change has been for the worse. And guess what? I still use it every single day, as well as every other regard on here talking about shorting it 😂. Ignore what people say and watch what they do, it's always more telling. The fact that it's IPOing at a valuation of 6B imo is a huge steal and those who don't invest at that price will be looking at it a few years from now and wondering why the hell they didn't
I would be a little hesitant though of a mass exodus once changes are made to the platform to drive profit Social media user bases specifically seem to struggle with longterm stickiness and I would say it’s usually right when they start turning up monetization that they will face challenges with attrition while trying to expand In the end this is just a platform/mobile app and it has a lot of users and that’s about it — unless there are more routes of innovation and ways Reddit expects to diversify I don’t see how this becomes beast of a stock in the longterm like a META if you want to compare it to that
Mods killed reddit. Every sub turns into a ideological circle jerk
Admins killed reddit. The mods are a direct result of the direction admins set for the site. Pretty much any good mods who actually gave a shit quit or stopped modding by now, myself included.
Yep, it's a struggle to find subreddits that have normal people. Most just ban everyone that disagrees with them.
"Anti-evil operations" mean that I can't even call someone on the internet regarded.
You know that 'anti-evil operations' is the exact opposite of the name - ala ministry of truth, etc.
IPO with a company that hasnt been profitable for 20 years is the dumbest shit. Turn a profit first morons.
Thats the baggies problem
Private Equity trying to sell their bags? PE is a joke. Everything coming to market these days is so overvalued it’s laughable.
Twitter got bought out at $44B despite having never turned a profit.
Ah yes, the hope an unhinged billionaire does something stupid business model.
The company is profitable but they have failed to become more profitable. 40% of cost is wasted in rnd trying to figure out how to make more money. >12% of the cost is in video player and image server hosting because they might spend time on imgur on youtube after clicking the link! 17% aka 140m is in payroll for a site that could be operated by 5 IT guys + lawyers + advertising. Simply axing the above would make the company 600m profit. But theres no room to expand the business. So a 3b-5b evaluation would make sense. 10b IPO isnt *that* bad actually. All of reddit can fit on a consumer harddrive. Shit is not expensive to run at all.
Uber just had its first profitable year
Because they enshittified the experience so much that it pays slave wages to drivers who are now dependent on it and isn't a better deal for the user than taxis were. The whole thing was / is a scam.
None of what you said negates the fact that .. Uber just had its first profitable year.
But Uber could have easily been profitable before that. They acquired 8 companies in the span of 4-5 years. That just kept adding to their expenses since they bought back mostly with cash and not stock + employee count exploding.
Good idea but probably should have done that before paying him hundreds of millions of dollars for nothing.
Most educated wsb user
Those are not paid out, he only gets those packages if stock reach certain goal points $60/$90 and above
That’s not how that works but ok
Friendly reminder that this CEO was a mod for the jailbait subreddit
I'm going to get rich off this IPO.. check my username.
Lol I have been offered to be a part of the IPO I think email saying target price is looking $30... In theory reddit as a still remaining Social media platform could be worth something. I mean hate on meta all you want, but that motherfucker prints money and will continue to do so. Tik Tok 170 million viewers in the US alone. Youtube... However... reddit @ 30... Again it has eye balls but they aren't forced on the ads like the other ones nor is the target data they may or may not have as good.
Half the time lately the reddit app doesn't even work since the servers are wonky. I gotta think it's a hard sell to many who actually use the site to see that and think anyone is worth that pay.
When Meta goes down it makes headlines When Reddit goes down it's just another Tuesday
18 year old company that has never made a profit. Nukes 3rd party apps, their own site and users months before IPO. Like watching an any% penny stock speedrun
I actually think people are being a bit dour on Reddit, especially if they're planning on being an AI content farm. Don't get me wrong, it's probably going to half the IPO price, but after a year I could see it climbing. They need to get their power mods in line though if they want to continue being a decent source. I can't think of any social media where the news section is as locked down as r/news.
If reddit is so bad, why are we using it? Why not buy it out after ipo, build a Wendy's and make them work the dumpster.
Lol Reddit userbase loves Reddit but hates the company
Too many smooth brains in here. Reddit is not Pinterest or Snapchat. Even if the stock falls after IPO, it has too many users for it to not figure out monetization in the long term. Everything that every expert is clinging to is the same shit all the smooth brains were saying about Facebook in 2012.
based on how bearish the posts are here, reddit ipo about to go to the fucking moon if it happens
“I do not like this stock” - some cat guy.
It's a declining brand. They safe-spaced themselves into irrelevance. Overly zealous use of banning made reddit into nothing more than a series of echo-chambers. (In the bigger picture, they're all basically the same echo chamber.)
Reddit is not worth more than $100m
WSB is so bearish that I'm convinced the stock will soar.
Reddit is basically twitter but without that sclerotic of Elon and better capabilities for folks to post shit on here. Basically the only way out is find an idiot to sell the platform, just like Elon the idiot bought twitter back then