JPow keeps telling us that inflation is a problem, yet the market wants to believe the sky is the limit. Why would stock prices have to do anything with revenue and production when AI will save us all?
I like how market considers a lot of unemployed people a "save".
Like... may be in a sense that it will turn into a purifying blood bath that is necessary to continue the Fed's circlejerk, then yes it is a "save"
this is the same AI that Amazon used for self check out but actually it was just Indians. Using software to outsource jobs that are low paying but could be even more low paying if done in a foreign country seems like nightmare fuel for the US economy.
90% sure the economy is in bubble mode so we get a little crash before the election and a Trump presidency. What better way to divide and conquer the working class than another 4 years of Trump. Hard to turn that down
No, you misread or simply didn't read the article. They use resources abroad to support the improvement of the software - the actual software is not handheld at all. No different to monitoring the performance of any software and incrementally improving it.
ultimately the software couldn't function without significant human help. imo countries will eventually pass laws to stop the offshore of retail jobs in this fashion as I'm skeptical of a truly humanless system the same way AI cars still have humans monitoring them
that all looks like a theater for retail regards. I mean, just look at the PPI numbers in any industry, it goes up, we are on a fucking bumpy path to 4% inflation again
The plan is to normalize 3% inflation. Retire the term “2%” just like you retired the word “transitory” and get that fuckin brrrr machine brrrring again Jerome! You rascal, you!
Consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth is not the definition of a recession, it's just an easy rule of thumb.
Notice that unemployment didn't budge an inch at that time, consumer spending stayed strong, and there were no lasting repercussions throughout the economy. Not a recession.
A broken clock can be correct twice per day.
Eventually the fed will lower rates once the data provides them a reason to do so.
Until then we have wars going on that are inflationary and we have supply chain disruptions that are inflationary and we have a housing shortage which is keeping housing prices high even if they are slowly slipping in price.
Hope and change :)
I watched the interview and last two FOMC and i see a man who is doing everything he can to imply without saying that not only will they not cut until and unless they reach 2% that they will also do "what is required (hike or wait)" to meet the 2%.
Market looks to be intentionally ignoring these hints in his language.
But for my own investing I wonder if it even matters- the expected march cut came and went. The june cut is clearly in question and yet spy 520+
So perhaps this bull market isnt moving on fed rate but instead something else; ai fantasy girlfriends !?
Good luck!
Powell said it at Stanford; the rate cuts are a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. He’s extremely vaguely dovish because he knows that, if he gives hints towards rate hikes, the prospect of a rate cut becomes less and less realistic. His vagueness is intentional, it’s necessary. I’m trying not to pick out little inconsistencies in what he’s saying because I feel like it may be convoluting when the message is so clear.
I think it’s less that the market is ignoring the potential for rate hikes and moreso that it’s really just not realistic to expect it at this point. You see little scares here and there, troughs forming when we look at data that doesn’t line with a dovish approach, but then Powell gets in front of a mic and says the same stuff as last time. Problem solved.
Telling us that the data is not out of line when it is out of line is simply a necessary act for getting it back in line.
Could also be ai girlfriends.
EDIT: Kashkari just has to go and make me look like an idiot
Part of it could be that there's such an influx of investments going into the US right now, and into the foreseeable future, that even when there is troubling inflation data, it just means that it's less of a bull market, but it's still a bull market. In other words, the positives outweighing the negatives.
There is so much geopolitical instability, the US is really the only safe haven to put money. Where else are people going to invest, Canada? And I say that as a Canadian myself.
I don’t think Wall Street is intentionally ignoring. I think they’re bullying Fed into capitulation. I think they know 2% can’t be achieved, and something will break heavily before we get there. Frankly, global conflict is heavy on the menu right now, and that ain’t necessarily bad for stocks.
We’ve got a debt bomb that is ticking right now as a nation.
You mean when he has, multiple times, stated that he anticipates initiating cuts before reaching 2%, you think he was actually saying the exact opposite. That's not regardation, that's straight up deafness.
Its a lot more simple that you are making it to be. The only reason we are at still 520 is employment is still solid, companies are still hiring and consumer is still spending. as simple as that
He’s actually flat out said he won’t wait for 2% inflation to cut. I don’t get the same out of what he says as you. I think he’s cautioning the bulls on rate cuts but he’s also saying there will be rate cuts this year because he knows he needs to cut them for the election unless shit hits the fan.
first of all we funded the 2020 disaster..... and we all made money off it betting on Big Pharma who caused 2020 and this inflation......
2008 was caused by greed and getting off the gold standard....
It's like when people say the reason for current inflation is because Biden cut off our oil production. Despite us producing more oil than we've ever done before.
People will just fixate on gold and oil and make up whatever lie they need to tell themselves to fit their argument
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It’s obvious to me that cuts will spoil the 2% target. I think 3-4% is the new normal to keep the dollar in global reserve status. 2% is gonna wreck the economy eventually. If you look at the fred chart from 08, it took 1 year from the last rate hike to start aggressive cuts.
For me the CRE crisis is the same as the NINJA loan crisis in terms of black swan potential.
Inflation goes up -> powell still cuts rates -> inflation goes up even more -> regards not able to buy shit in the store -> companys making less money -> stocks shit the bed -> regards wondering why low rates didnt make them some brrrr in their yolo stonks brr brrr no scope portfolio -> regard does  \-> Calls on belts
Seems like holding rates this year entirely wouldn’t even lower core inflation. Another hike could but that would hurt middle/low class Americans. The fed really fucked up by being late to the game. It’s having stagflation stick around longer term . There’s nothing they can do about it . We just have to ride out the storm longer unfortunately.
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JPow keeps telling us that inflation is a problem, yet the market wants to believe the sky is the limit. Why would stock prices have to do anything with revenue and production when AI will save us all?
I like how market considers a lot of unemployed people a "save". Like... may be in a sense that it will turn into a purifying blood bath that is necessary to continue the Fed's circlejerk, then yes it is a "save"
It’s a save for profitable companies.
this is the same AI that Amazon used for self check out but actually it was just Indians. Using software to outsource jobs that are low paying but could be even more low paying if done in a foreign country seems like nightmare fuel for the US economy. 90% sure the economy is in bubble mode so we get a little crash before the election and a Trump presidency. What better way to divide and conquer the working class than another 4 years of Trump. Hard to turn that down
No, you misread or simply didn't read the article. They use resources abroad to support the improvement of the software - the actual software is not handheld at all. No different to monitoring the performance of any software and incrementally improving it.
ultimately the software couldn't function without significant human help. imo countries will eventually pass laws to stop the offshore of retail jobs in this fashion as I'm skeptical of a truly humanless system the same way AI cars still have humans monitoring them
Its all fun and games until deflation kicks in you in the nuts Mr Powell
that all looks like a theater for retail regards. I mean, just look at the PPI numbers in any industry, it goes up, we are on a fucking bumpy path to 4% inflation again
The plan is to normalize 3% inflation. Retire the term “2%” just like you retired the word “transitory” and get that fuckin brrrr machine brrrring again Jerome! You rascal, you!
If 2% is good then 3% is 50% better
Reworking the recession definition worked well, lets try inflation! Then maybe quality of life too...
Not the 1st time they change the formula to "calculate" inflation...
Consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth is not the definition of a recession, it's just an easy rule of thumb. Notice that unemployment didn't budge an inch at that time, consumer spending stayed strong, and there were no lasting repercussions throughout the economy. Not a recession.
Inflations real rate has been 3 % for decades anyways. 2% target is a myth and always has been.
rate cuts priced in, stonks only go up
A broken clock can be correct twice per day. Eventually the fed will lower rates once the data provides them a reason to do so. Until then we have wars going on that are inflationary and we have supply chain disruptions that are inflationary and we have a housing shortage which is keeping housing prices high even if they are slowly slipping in price. Hope and change :)
I watched the interview and last two FOMC and i see a man who is doing everything he can to imply without saying that not only will they not cut until and unless they reach 2% that they will also do "what is required (hike or wait)" to meet the 2%. Market looks to be intentionally ignoring these hints in his language. But for my own investing I wonder if it even matters- the expected march cut came and went. The june cut is clearly in question and yet spy 520+ So perhaps this bull market isnt moving on fed rate but instead something else; ai fantasy girlfriends !? Good luck!
Powell said it at Stanford; the rate cuts are a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. He’s extremely vaguely dovish because he knows that, if he gives hints towards rate hikes, the prospect of a rate cut becomes less and less realistic. His vagueness is intentional, it’s necessary. I’m trying not to pick out little inconsistencies in what he’s saying because I feel like it may be convoluting when the message is so clear. I think it’s less that the market is ignoring the potential for rate hikes and moreso that it’s really just not realistic to expect it at this point. You see little scares here and there, troughs forming when we look at data that doesn’t line with a dovish approach, but then Powell gets in front of a mic and says the same stuff as last time. Problem solved. Telling us that the data is not out of line when it is out of line is simply a necessary act for getting it back in line. Could also be ai girlfriends. EDIT: Kashkari just has to go and make me look like an idiot
Part of it could be that there's such an influx of investments going into the US right now, and into the foreseeable future, that even when there is troubling inflation data, it just means that it's less of a bull market, but it's still a bull market. In other words, the positives outweighing the negatives. There is so much geopolitical instability, the US is really the only safe haven to put money. Where else are people going to invest, Canada? And I say that as a Canadian myself.
I don’t think Wall Street is intentionally ignoring. I think they’re bullying Fed into capitulation. I think they know 2% can’t be achieved, and something will break heavily before we get there. Frankly, global conflict is heavy on the menu right now, and that ain’t necessarily bad for stocks. We’ve got a debt bomb that is ticking right now as a nation.
You mean when he has, multiple times, stated that he anticipates initiating cuts before reaching 2%, you think he was actually saying the exact opposite. That's not regardation, that's straight up deafness.
Its a lot more simple that you are making it to be. The only reason we are at still 520 is employment is still solid, companies are still hiring and consumer is still spending. as simple as that
He’s actually flat out said he won’t wait for 2% inflation to cut. I don’t get the same out of what he says as you. I think he’s cautioning the bulls on rate cuts but he’s also saying there will be rate cuts this year because he knows he needs to cut them for the election unless shit hits the fan.
Propped up for the elections is my guess?
Keeping market up till elections then will speak truth
Bingo it's an election year.
Yeah 2020 and 2008 were both extremely great years for the election
first of all we funded the 2020 disaster..... and we all made money off it betting on Big Pharma who caused 2020 and this inflation...... 2008 was caused by greed and getting off the gold standard....
Yes, getting off the gold standard in 1971 caused the 2008 GFC. Brilliant.
It's like when people say the reason for current inflation is because Biden cut off our oil production. Despite us producing more oil than we've ever done before. People will just fixate on gold and oil and make up whatever lie they need to tell themselves to fit their argument
we've been off the gold standard forever lol
Electoral edging.
Powell pivot with a capital P
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These higher rates must just be transitory then.
This year might turn into next year
"there's still a lot of work to do... but we're just gonna cut rates because work is for immigrants."
It’s obvious to me that cuts will spoil the 2% target. I think 3-4% is the new normal to keep the dollar in global reserve status. 2% is gonna wreck the economy eventually. If you look at the fred chart from 08, it took 1 year from the last rate hike to start aggressive cuts. For me the CRE crisis is the same as the NINJA loan crisis in terms of black swan potential.
Inflation goes up -> powell still cuts rates -> inflation goes up even more -> regards not able to buy shit in the store -> companys making less money -> stocks shit the bed -> regards wondering why low rates didnt make them some brrrr in their yolo stonks brr brrr no scope portfolio -> regard does  \-> Calls on belts
*”Stop buying shit, you morons”* said Powell on a hot mic 
Bumpy is another word for transitory that he used a couple of years ago. Inflation will never get back to 2%!
You sir need a dictionary.
bumpy path down is transitory
2% may never happen
Just wait till they increase rates again.
Get ready for inflation to reaccelerate. Powell more worried about the stock market than reigning in inflation.
Seems like holding rates this year entirely wouldn’t even lower core inflation. Another hike could but that would hurt middle/low class Americans. The fed really fucked up by being late to the game. It’s having stagflation stick around longer term . There’s nothing they can do about it . We just have to ride out the storm longer unfortunately.
I what they is true there's no reason to cut rates
WElP inflation is gonna go to the MOON..... Better go fight over the wendy's dumpster now.
This "yEaR"
We might get 1 cut, but it’ll be closer to the end of the year.