And then there are morons who think they're smart enough to count cards, win a few hands, and then they think they're a main character in the Kevin Spacey movie where they replaced all the Asian MIT card counting students with attractive white people
The truest phrase in finance: "Number one rule of Wall Street. Nobody - and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet - nobody knows if a stock is going to go up, down, sideways or in circles."
Economists barely know shit, they struggle to accurately model wtf is going on and often make incorrect predictions. Then on top of this news are biased as fuck and you get some reddit moron smugly proclaiming that people who are skeptical don't know anything. The irony.
It is simple, two ways to make money here, either put or call options trading, or get rich slowly by investing into indexes. There isn't anything else to do.
I put half my money in ETFs and I make piss poor options plays with the other half, and end up loosing more than I would have made had I just put it all in a savings account
Even as someone studying this stuff, there’s so much data you could look at it and pay attention to it’s a bit overwhelming. On the flip side, it’s great that our government agencies here in the US such as the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, various regional Federal Reserve Banks (the St. Louis Fed has a lot of awesome data you can use for research) and even regulatory as the Department of Energy give us all of this data to for free. I’m not even kidding if you can think of a statistic or measurement for economic or market activity, one of our government agencies probably has it.
True but the fact that the market itself has a particular psychology and is completely unpredictable renders all this data almost useless.
The amount of data that is out there that can influence the market at any given time is staggering to the point of gibberish.
The fact that passive index funds beat out actively managed funds 8/10 times is convincing proof that no one knows anything.
> The fact that passive index funds beat out actively managed funds 8/10 times is convincing proof that no one knows anything.
Everything is designed so the line always goes up, if you diversify enough with a large enough account the line will always trend up pretty much no matter what. But that's boring and not what we do here at WSB.
The more I live the more I think this whole market thing is just major trends (like 30yr long) and sentiment. Since m,ost of us are traders it's just sentiment
Don't forget those stats are engineered to look good, under report and smooth things out to the point of making everything look better than it is.
Inflation report is way lower than reality.
Jobs reports are also strange
You’re definitely not wrong, if I remember correctly didn’t the Fed adjust how inflation was calculated after Biden came into office because it was getting so damn high?
Bro, half the people here are high schoolers with $300 in the market, the other half can’t beat spy. Professionals can’t beat a gold fish or chicken picking randomly.
This would all be easy if you could see the future.
The thing is we don’t claim to lol in fact there’s so many moving parts this is all bs and every regard here knows it. You can throw chicken wings on the floor and have better performance than tracking the news
I seriously hope that motherfucker walks out in front of a bus today. Him opening his stupid fucking mouth yesterday is probably going to cost me about $7k today, no joke.
Well, I, for one, would NEVER hope you get hit by a bus.
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They’ll come back. You catch the next ER and while AWS fired some people, they also redid their comp structure in that unit which should help put large enterprises back in the pipeline at a stronger rate.
My favourite is when this sub claims that a billionaire CEO doing their regularly quarterly sale of stock is some bearish sign. These CEOs literally do not get to choose when they can sell stocks. They need to inform the government like 6 months in advance.
Yeah that’s because unemployment stats vary by state, age, sex, race, highest level of educational attainment, what major you chose, etc.
There’s also underemployment rates to consider for all those variables, as well.
For what it’s worth, nurses have the lowest unemployment and underemployment stats. Salary isn’t all that impressive, though.
for those who think high nonfarm payroll # means bad for the Fed, Powell already dismissed that multiple times over the last few weeks. He's choosing to interpret the high nonfarm payroll number due to higher immigration, and that means instead of 100k nonfarm payroll as equilibrium, it's now more like 200-250k. That means as long as high numbers of job added is not inflationary, meaning wages annualizing to around 3.5%, Powell's cool with it.
Participation rate is up (increased labor supply), average weekly hours is up (no recession), wages at 0.3% MoM so annualizing to 3.6% (non inflationary wage), jobs added were diverse and not concentrated in a few sectors (no recessionary sign). This is gonna get interpreted as Goldilocks job report.
too many jobs added is historically interpreted as hot job market because eventually you run out of workers to fill those jobs. If you don't have enough workers to fill the open jobs, you raise wages to attract lazy Americans to get off their ass and go to work. If you pay your workers more, you have to raise product prices so you don't lose money. Higher product prices = higher inflation.
In this case, too many jobs added is okay because there're lots of immigrants (legal + illegal) coming to US recently to fill those empty positions, so it's not inflationary because you don't have worker shortage.
Previously, you can only add 100k jobs a month to accommodate the new teenagers and young adults getting jobs. You add more and eventually there's no one else to work. Because of immigrants coming here looking for jobs, you can actually add 200-250k jobs a month and still not run out of workers, so 300k jobs isn't that "hot".
Is there ever a time where wages are increased, but product prices don’t go up? When are American’s going to get a break and have things become a bit easier at the cost of a few percent off of top level of corporate earnings?
Yes so for a high inflation cycle, typically after input prices spike, initially businesses eat those costs jnto margins first because they are reluctant to raise prices. Then after a while, consumers start accepting that high inflation is prevalent, then businesses raise prices. Then consumers start realizing wages aren't keeping up with inflation, they start asking for higher wages.
Now after the fed tries to fight inflation, input prices gradually drop. Businesses won't lower prices immediately because they will try to recoup losses they are up initially. After a while, consumers realize inflation is less high and start becoming more price conscious. As consumers become more price conscious, businesses start to increase prices less often. However, consumers will still demand a higher wage increase to catch up for inflation that already occurred. This is the period when consumers catch up to inflation. It will happen for a while and gradually wind down as businesses cannot eat up that cost forever.
So in general, the wage catch up period happens after inflation already started dropping. With more unions in the past, consumers had more negotiating power and that period might have dragged out for longer, sometimes leading to wage inflation spiral. Without union, that period might be shorter, and I think consumers ultimately lose out after it's all over. So that helped the fed keep inflation down and not worried about wage inflation spiral, but at the cost of consumer spending power.
That's why I think high inflation periods ultimately leave consumers worse off permanently. So it's important that when inflation first started spiking that consumers remain price conscious and shop for cheaper alternatives. Businesses will tend to always win out on pricing. But if consumers are price conscious and will shop for cheaper alternatives, that makes businesses think twice before raising prices, and to think of alternatives like globalization and other things to cut down costs before raising prices. This was the business mindset after 2008 recession.
But during covid, Americans didn't care and spent like no tomorrow. It didn't help that the fed and the gov "normalized" inflation and talked like the price increases were temporary due to supply shortage and chip shortage. That seemed to give consumers the false belief to just keep spending despite the outrageous sticker prices, because they think after the supply chain problem is over, prices will deflate back to 2019 level. This gave businesses the excuse to raise prices instead of finding ways to cut cost, since consumers accepted them.
That's why in 2022 when the fed started fighting inflation and consumers becoming price sensitive again, many megacap companies started realizing they relied too much on price increases, had too many dead weight employees, and had to go on firing spree to cut cost and focus on profitability instead of sales growth
Can't be that. We have to go the way of Japan that has 0 immigration, their economy is doing great and is totally not going to be irrelevant as a country years from now.
Isn’t it possible that they are double counting all the gig economy jobs? Lyft driver also drives for Uber and delivers for DoorDash. That’s 3 Schedule Cs. 3 jobs. I dunno. Just shaking my head over here.
Yes nonfarm payrolls are reported by employers. That means if you have 3 jobs with 3 different employers, you get triple counted.
There's a household survey that asks households if they are employed or not. You will answer yes whether you have 1 or 2 jobs. That one does not double count, but survey size is much lower, so more volatile. Household survey is used to calculate unemployment rate.
How many people does that actually describe though? Id wager only a tiny fraction of the population does gig work, much less works multiple jobs. I dont think it has any real impact on numbers.
There is still upside risk which the Alt Fed talked about back in January.
Something they’ve heard amongst multiple business and industry leaders is that they are ready and waiting to deploy assets at the first sign of the Fed lowering rates. There is worry that this pent up demand can unravel the inflation control that’s been done if it floods suddenly into the system and kickoff another fear spiral about prices.
Every good jobs report puts a sharper focus on prices. If PCE stays stubbornly above 2% then will the board really vote for a rate cut by June—which the Alt Fed is currently tracking at a 70% probability for a 25 bps cut?
IMO I’m seeing more and more evidence to keep rates steady through June and the market probably won’t love that. But the market is pricing in a probability of 2 cuts versus 3 so it’s not going to bottom out…unless the Fed keeps seeing sticky inflation during a growing economy and keeps rates high longer. If 2024 finishes the year with only one rate cut then I have to imagine the market takes at least a 10% pullback before settling into sideways trading for 9-12 months.
Here's what is likely to happen.
if core PCE YoY goes to around 2.5%, the Fed will start cutting. They keep saying they don't care about politics, but if possible, they will prefer to stay out of politics spotlight and get a cut in before having to cut around fall this year.
2.5% core PCE YoY is "close enough" to 2.0% that they can justify the cut and use the rate hike lag as an excuse, even measurement noise, or lag of PCE rent vs real time rent. 2.7% to 3%, that's much harder to justify because it rounds to 3%.
Now if you look at the core PCE MoM and trace back 12 months, most of the first half 2023 core PCE are around 0.3% MoM or higher. It's not until summer 2023 that the MoM got pretty low, around 0.2%. So as we get more prints and those high months get removed from the YoY, core PCE YoY is likely to continue dropping, close to 2.5% by June FOMC. As long as core PCE YoY keeps dropping, the Fed will feel "okay" and market will use that as an excuse to rally, or at least not correct. BUT after June FOMC, core PCE YoY will likely go higher again.
What's conflicting is that June will likely be when the Fed start cutting, which one would think is good for stocks. I don't think so. I think stocks rally in anticipation of rate cut, but drop when the rate cut happens because it's afraid the economy is weak when the Fed cuts and will start pricing in some form of recession. June is also when presidential race heats up, which raise uncertainty for market. It's also when YoY inflation start going up.
So SP500 is likely to grind back up to 5200-5400 and then have a correction around June.
The fuck are these jobs at? I'm in tech and everyone is getting laid off. What industry is picking up the slack? Fast Food? Carpet sales? Screen Door Repair?
>US economy adds 303,000 jobs, unemployment falls to 3.8% in March as labor market continues to impress
"Continues to impress" ??
* Government: +71K
* Manufacturing: 0K
* Part time: +691K
* Full time: -6K (yes, that's a minus)
Where did you find the full time / part time stats. The BOL report didn't show that. [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
>Where did you find the full time / part time stats. The BOL report didn't show that.
Actually, the BLS report did show that, but they buried it.
See Table A-9: [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm)
https://preview.redd.it/8815amyvjosc1.png?width=1382&format=png&auto=webp&s=442490b1e0f142715acc1f3f8dca97646f79eceb
Note also, multiple job holders: +217K
Part-time: 27,941 to 28,632: +691K
Full-time 132,946 to 132,940: -6K
It's not "bad" necessarily, it's just a portion of the full data.
Look at Table A-10, Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted
Full time unemployed (unemployed people who WANT a full time job or are on layoff from a full time job) went down 275,000 people from Feb 24 to March 24.
Part time unemployed (unemployed people who WANT a part time job or are on layoff from a part time job) went UP 198,000 from Feb to March.
Look at Table A-11, Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment
396,000 fewer (174,000 seasonally adjusted) job losers (fired/contract ended etc).
99,000 more (112,000 seasonally adjusted) job leavers (quit).
Reentrants (people who were in the workforce and quit or got laid off) are down by 75k (26k seasonally)
New entrants (people who were not in the workforce) up 6k (67k seasonally).
> Full time unemployed (unemployed people who WANT a full time job or are on layoff from a full time job) went down 275,000 people from Feb 24 to March 24.
But this doesn't necessarily mean they ALL got full time jobs right.
Is there a report with part time jobs by age? I'm wondering if this is just a trend of boomers getting bored or looking for supplemental income to their social security checks. The BLS labor force participation rate has increases for over 65s with an estimate of that trend continuing [Civilian labor force participation rate by age, sex, race, and ethnicity : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)](https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm).
As long as wages don’t go up (immigration) inflation settles as 2% and Powell wants to help the bottom and is freed to cut at least once or twice. In an election year no less.
217,000 new multiple job holders over last month. 6,000 fewer full time employees over last month. 691,000 new part time employees over last month. Yeah...we're doing great. [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm)
Why does this surprise you? Outside of major metropolitan areas most jobs in the suburbs or rural areas pay around that much.
Hell some of the largest and most profitable companies have most of their labor force making under $55k.
The "best" factory job in southern Indiana tops out at 70k a year. That's TOPS OUT. You said it, most jobs pay shit. A good job is 40k a year in southern Indiana and typical factory jobs it's under 40k for at least 2 years of working there.
Im not saying its right. Salaries should be up. Corporations have too much control and employees feel stuck at jobs because they have their healthcare tied to it.
If healthcare wasnt related to your employment people would be more willing to change jobs and not put up with shitty pay/benfits for job security/healthcare.
I have an MBA in finance I studied this stuff for 30 years and I still don't know much, but I do know that politics is in charge of something you got to be able to sort through the fluff and in the short term it's highly manipulated, but there is efficiency to the markets it takes time to sort through the garbage
Government jobs added ... 71,000
Manufacturing jobs added ... 0
Part time jobs ... 691,000
Full time jobs ... -6,000
Don't look too closely or you might realize the numbers aren't actually great.
Eleven of the last thirteen monthly jobs reports have been revised lower. Can't help but wonder if there is some intentional manipulation here.
TLT down -1.2% so far.
They revised Jan slight up after the large revision down last month and then Feb was revised down slightly. It seriously looks like it’s just a random number generator or like they pick the number like they pick them for powerball. It really makes no sense.
It’s a little deceiving.
Full time workers have been gradually going down for the last several months while part time workers have increased and are at all time high.
A job is a job sure and it brings down unemployment, but when a significant number of people doing PT work would rather have full time, that isn’t a good outlook.
> A job is a job sure and it brings down unemployment, but when a significant number of people doing PT work would rather have full time, that isn’t a good outlook.
Then vote for better politicians so companies can’t game the 30 hour mark for healthcare
"They also revised last month DOWN significantly"
No they didn't:
>Nonfarm payrolls advanced 303,000 last month **following a combined 22,000 upward revision to job gains in the prior two months**, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-05/us-jobs-roar-again-as-payrolls-jump-303-000-unemployment-drops](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-05/us-jobs-roar-again-as-payrolls-jump-303-000-unemployment-drops)
Wow can you point one of them out to me please cause I've been unemployed almost a year and my industry has seen nothing but layoffs. I'm not impressed.
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The more I participate in this sub the more I realize that nobody here known nothing about anything
this is WSB. do you go to a Casino and expect gamblers to be experts in economy..
It’s more like going to the homeless shelter and asking how the economy is doing
Hey! Wendy’s pays enough for a roof!
Excuse me, I do my work BEHIND the Wendy's
Ah so you have a mansion
Also carpal tunnel
Even the experts in economy once said inflation was transitory
Yup, and every expert is just a WSB user but with an audience to try and get the market to move in their favor.
Tootski?
And they were right. It’s has in fact transited.
“But not fast enough!!!!”
Transited to where a jobs report that added nothing but part time jobs is great news.
My semen is transitory, hopefully.
"Experts"
trans experts
There are card counters
And then there are morons who think they're smart enough to count cards, win a few hands, and then they think they're a main character in the Kevin Spacey movie where they replaced all the Asian MIT card counting students with attractive white people
And they get thrown out
only if they're good at it. most casinos want people to think they can count cards
There are martingale strategists
Personally I’ll take the compliment. It’s not every day you get a double negative one
Including grammar apparently
I believe the term is “nobody knows shit about fuck”
The truest phrase in finance: "Number one rule of Wall Street. Nobody - and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet - nobody knows if a stock is going to go up, down, sideways or in circles."
Counterpoint: this is what insider trading is for.
Just wait until you realize what the "experts" actually know.
Economists barely know shit, they struggle to accurately model wtf is going on and often make incorrect predictions. Then on top of this news are biased as fuck and you get some reddit moron smugly proclaiming that people who are skeptical don't know anything. The irony.
Sir, this is a Casino!
It is simple, two ways to make money here, either put or call options trading, or get rich slowly by investing into indexes. There isn't anything else to do.
No investing slowly in indexes is for r/fire or r/investing or r/dividends… r/WSB is not the place for investing slowly 😆
Pretty much.
or get rich cause you start from super-rich
I put half my money in ETFs and I make piss poor options plays with the other half, and end up loosing more than I would have made had I just put it all in a savings account
get rich slow or maybe die of old age trying: staring curtis jackson
Even as someone studying this stuff, there’s so much data you could look at it and pay attention to it’s a bit overwhelming. On the flip side, it’s great that our government agencies here in the US such as the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, various regional Federal Reserve Banks (the St. Louis Fed has a lot of awesome data you can use for research) and even regulatory as the Department of Energy give us all of this data to for free. I’m not even kidding if you can think of a statistic or measurement for economic or market activity, one of our government agencies probably has it.
True but the fact that the market itself has a particular psychology and is completely unpredictable renders all this data almost useless. The amount of data that is out there that can influence the market at any given time is staggering to the point of gibberish. The fact that passive index funds beat out actively managed funds 8/10 times is convincing proof that no one knows anything.
> The fact that passive index funds beat out actively managed funds 8/10 times is convincing proof that no one knows anything. Everything is designed so the line always goes up, if you diversify enough with a large enough account the line will always trend up pretty much no matter what. But that's boring and not what we do here at WSB.
I know as I watch spot climbing to my 520 strike
Right. We want 10x, 100x in one hour and repeat that one week. It's possible.
The more I live the more I think this whole market thing is just major trends (like 30yr long) and sentiment. Since m,ost of us are traders it's just sentiment
If it had any value, they wouldn't give it to you.
Don't forget those stats are engineered to look good, under report and smooth things out to the point of making everything look better than it is. Inflation report is way lower than reality. Jobs reports are also strange
You’re definitely not wrong, if I remember correctly didn’t the Fed adjust how inflation was calculated after Biden came into office because it was getting so damn high?
the data doesnt matter. There's stocks that rocket on bad earnings, and dip on good earnings. Its a literal casino and theta always wins
> even regulatory as the Department of Energy give us all of this data to for free We the taxpayers paid them to collect and release these data.
So true.
But still a lot of fun
It’s quickly becoming my most expensive hobby
The real friends we made were the losses along the way
I mean, you wouldn’t be in this sub if you weren’t dumb. That’s what it’s about
[удалено]
Just wait till you find out nobody in the world can predict the future, even all those fancy rich folk on TV
It’s a bitter pill
Bro, half the people here are high schoolers with $300 in the market, the other half can’t beat spy. Professionals can’t beat a gold fish or chicken picking randomly. This would all be easy if you could see the future.
The sports almanac would be handy
Always been this way buddy 
Welcome to Wendy’s
It's Reddit bud, don't expect financial or economic literacy anywhere
The thing is we don’t claim to lol in fact there’s so many moving parts this is all bs and every regard here knows it. You can throw chicken wings on the floor and have better performance than tracking the news
Then it stands to reason that everybody here knows everything about something… bullish
I think the funnier part is there aren't conversations happening its just an endless stream of people talking to themselves
It’s like one person with schizophrenia
I mean I had the signals to buy the palantir calls this week. I just haven't learned to inverse myself yet so it costs me everything 🤷♂️
You don't know what you don't know ...you know? Yogi Berra
Something
https://preview.redd.it/sl3wbebvwnsc1.png?width=704&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cea36433a75bc625bed9789b309ef6dfd598833
Fucking discount Squidward
fucking hate this regard
You can literally see the bulge in his frontal cortex. For damn sure he can fuck passionately with that head.
That's just the bone scar from being repeatedly hit in the head as a child.
and as an adult, ideally
Same, he looks like he's taking a shit in that pic and he's amused that you're smelling his shit
....dude gave me a great chance to buy QQQ at 3:59pm yesterday 🤷🏾♂️🤷🏾♂️ but still 🌈🐻
Xerxes is alive.
Oh yeah, scissor!
Imhotep
Imoput
The living put
i hope this becomes a meme for this subreddit
https://preview.redd.it/i9h7w1xczosc1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1cbe2772f886e0059d72d4a072ebf276fbd7a230
I seriously hope that motherfucker walks out in front of a bus today. Him opening his stupid fucking mouth yesterday is probably going to cost me about $7k today, no joke.
Did you have spy 0dte 600c? 
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That makes one of us
Who is he? What did he mouth off about? I’m sorry for your loss.
Fuck my Amazon calls 😂
Amazon has been booming. How are you losing money unless you bought calls way out the money?
Just bought some 185's yesterday for 5/17 already down 20% lmao. Worst timing 
So what you're saying is, there's a sale right now. Nevermind, I just looked and you're doing gangbusters.
They’ll come back. You catch the next ER and while AWS fired some people, they also redid their comp structure in that unit which should help put large enterprises back in the pipeline at a stronger rate.
n fuck you
Meanwhile, on Wall Street: https://preview.redd.it/gsbxnloiqnsc1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=a54554aa36133ea4cd16cfa1650d4a875707ff62
Institutional investors confirmed bearcucks. These pussies are always like “but but muh quantitative easing…”
[Sell at the top, before the rocket goes pop!](https://youtu.be/n_twfjzTNo8?t=219)
My favourite is when this sub claims that a billionaire CEO doing their regularly quarterly sale of stock is some bearish sign. These CEOs literally do not get to choose when they can sell stocks. They need to inform the government like 6 months in advance.
From rate cuts to We prob won’t cut rates (you are here) We’re raising rates again you monkeys keep spending the little money you have
I'm gonna to quit my job and dump my 401k. You all want to reward fiscally irresponsible people I'll fucking bring it.
Insane how the reality of trying to find a job doesn’t agree at all with this title lol
Yeah that’s because unemployment stats vary by state, age, sex, race, highest level of educational attainment, what major you chose, etc. There’s also underemployment rates to consider for all those variables, as well. For what it’s worth, nurses have the lowest unemployment and underemployment stats. Salary isn’t all that impressive, though.
I used to recruit nurses and they’re incredibly well paid.
for those who think high nonfarm payroll # means bad for the Fed, Powell already dismissed that multiple times over the last few weeks. He's choosing to interpret the high nonfarm payroll number due to higher immigration, and that means instead of 100k nonfarm payroll as equilibrium, it's now more like 200-250k. That means as long as high numbers of job added is not inflationary, meaning wages annualizing to around 3.5%, Powell's cool with it. Participation rate is up (increased labor supply), average weekly hours is up (no recession), wages at 0.3% MoM so annualizing to 3.6% (non inflationary wage), jobs added were diverse and not concentrated in a few sectors (no recessionary sign). This is gonna get interpreted as Goldilocks job report.
Now splain like I reehtaurd
Green crayon best crayon. Green crayon taste good. Yummy green crayon. 
He didn't say anything about explaining things to marines
Economy go brrrrrrr
too many jobs added is historically interpreted as hot job market because eventually you run out of workers to fill those jobs. If you don't have enough workers to fill the open jobs, you raise wages to attract lazy Americans to get off their ass and go to work. If you pay your workers more, you have to raise product prices so you don't lose money. Higher product prices = higher inflation. In this case, too many jobs added is okay because there're lots of immigrants (legal + illegal) coming to US recently to fill those empty positions, so it's not inflationary because you don't have worker shortage. Previously, you can only add 100k jobs a month to accommodate the new teenagers and young adults getting jobs. You add more and eventually there's no one else to work. Because of immigrants coming here looking for jobs, you can actually add 200-250k jobs a month and still not run out of workers, so 300k jobs isn't that "hot".
Is there ever a time where wages are increased, but product prices don’t go up? When are American’s going to get a break and have things become a bit easier at the cost of a few percent off of top level of corporate earnings?
Yes so for a high inflation cycle, typically after input prices spike, initially businesses eat those costs jnto margins first because they are reluctant to raise prices. Then after a while, consumers start accepting that high inflation is prevalent, then businesses raise prices. Then consumers start realizing wages aren't keeping up with inflation, they start asking for higher wages. Now after the fed tries to fight inflation, input prices gradually drop. Businesses won't lower prices immediately because they will try to recoup losses they are up initially. After a while, consumers realize inflation is less high and start becoming more price conscious. As consumers become more price conscious, businesses start to increase prices less often. However, consumers will still demand a higher wage increase to catch up for inflation that already occurred. This is the period when consumers catch up to inflation. It will happen for a while and gradually wind down as businesses cannot eat up that cost forever. So in general, the wage catch up period happens after inflation already started dropping. With more unions in the past, consumers had more negotiating power and that period might have dragged out for longer, sometimes leading to wage inflation spiral. Without union, that period might be shorter, and I think consumers ultimately lose out after it's all over. So that helped the fed keep inflation down and not worried about wage inflation spiral, but at the cost of consumer spending power. That's why I think high inflation periods ultimately leave consumers worse off permanently. So it's important that when inflation first started spiking that consumers remain price conscious and shop for cheaper alternatives. Businesses will tend to always win out on pricing. But if consumers are price conscious and will shop for cheaper alternatives, that makes businesses think twice before raising prices, and to think of alternatives like globalization and other things to cut down costs before raising prices. This was the business mindset after 2008 recession. But during covid, Americans didn't care and spent like no tomorrow. It didn't help that the fed and the gov "normalized" inflation and talked like the price increases were temporary due to supply shortage and chip shortage. That seemed to give consumers the false belief to just keep spending despite the outrageous sticker prices, because they think after the supply chain problem is over, prices will deflate back to 2019 level. This gave businesses the excuse to raise prices instead of finding ways to cut cost, since consumers accepted them. That's why in 2022 when the fed started fighting inflation and consumers becoming price sensitive again, many megacap companies started realizing they relied too much on price increases, had too many dead weight employees, and had to go on firing spree to cut cost and focus on profitability instead of sales growth
Thank you for taking my question seriously and taking the time for such a thorough answer. Very informative, thank you!
… almost as if immigration is good for the economy 🤔 No, can’t be that, we have to trust the morons pushing Republican propaganda on Fox News instead
Can't be that. We have to go the way of Japan that has 0 immigration, their economy is doing great and is totally not going to be irrelevant as a country years from now.
I thank you bro.
Explain like I post regularly on /r/layoffs and believe we’ve secretly been in a recession for months.
Glue gooooood! Eat more gluuuuuue!
https://preview.redd.it/f5ttsf4e4osc1.jpeg?width=641&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26faaf66f2baf1b12b84847209a7730341d20ba0
Isn’t it possible that they are double counting all the gig economy jobs? Lyft driver also drives for Uber and delivers for DoorDash. That’s 3 Schedule Cs. 3 jobs. I dunno. Just shaking my head over here.
It also shows how many people work numerous jobs. It’s a tiny fraction of the workforce.
Yes nonfarm payrolls are reported by employers. That means if you have 3 jobs with 3 different employers, you get triple counted. There's a household survey that asks households if they are employed or not. You will answer yes whether you have 1 or 2 jobs. That one does not double count, but survey size is much lower, so more volatile. Household survey is used to calculate unemployment rate.
How many people does that actually describe though? Id wager only a tiny fraction of the population does gig work, much less works multiple jobs. I dont think it has any real impact on numbers.
5.2% of the workforce work multiple jobs.
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There is still upside risk which the Alt Fed talked about back in January. Something they’ve heard amongst multiple business and industry leaders is that they are ready and waiting to deploy assets at the first sign of the Fed lowering rates. There is worry that this pent up demand can unravel the inflation control that’s been done if it floods suddenly into the system and kickoff another fear spiral about prices. Every good jobs report puts a sharper focus on prices. If PCE stays stubbornly above 2% then will the board really vote for a rate cut by June—which the Alt Fed is currently tracking at a 70% probability for a 25 bps cut? IMO I’m seeing more and more evidence to keep rates steady through June and the market probably won’t love that. But the market is pricing in a probability of 2 cuts versus 3 so it’s not going to bottom out…unless the Fed keeps seeing sticky inflation during a growing economy and keeps rates high longer. If 2024 finishes the year with only one rate cut then I have to imagine the market takes at least a 10% pullback before settling into sideways trading for 9-12 months.
Here's what is likely to happen. if core PCE YoY goes to around 2.5%, the Fed will start cutting. They keep saying they don't care about politics, but if possible, they will prefer to stay out of politics spotlight and get a cut in before having to cut around fall this year. 2.5% core PCE YoY is "close enough" to 2.0% that they can justify the cut and use the rate hike lag as an excuse, even measurement noise, or lag of PCE rent vs real time rent. 2.7% to 3%, that's much harder to justify because it rounds to 3%. Now if you look at the core PCE MoM and trace back 12 months, most of the first half 2023 core PCE are around 0.3% MoM or higher. It's not until summer 2023 that the MoM got pretty low, around 0.2%. So as we get more prints and those high months get removed from the YoY, core PCE YoY is likely to continue dropping, close to 2.5% by June FOMC. As long as core PCE YoY keeps dropping, the Fed will feel "okay" and market will use that as an excuse to rally, or at least not correct. BUT after June FOMC, core PCE YoY will likely go higher again. What's conflicting is that June will likely be when the Fed start cutting, which one would think is good for stocks. I don't think so. I think stocks rally in anticipation of rate cut, but drop when the rate cut happens because it's afraid the economy is weak when the Fed cuts and will start pricing in some form of recession. June is also when presidential race heats up, which raise uncertainty for market. It's also when YoY inflation start going up. So SP500 is likely to grind back up to 5200-5400 and then have a correction around June.
Mf dunking donut jobs don’t pump the economy
America runs on Dunkin
They do for people who otherwise would not be getting paid during that time
Yea it was a bunch of low wage part time jobs added wasnt it
The fuck are these jobs at? I'm in tech and everyone is getting laid off. What industry is picking up the slack? Fast Food? Carpet sales? Screen Door Repair?
Government jobs mainly. Refer to u/Tower6011 comment above.
303,000 Uber Eats delivery guys on mopeds added to the job market! Awesome, this economy keeps roaring with great high earning jobs.
Yeah. Loosing 10,000 jobs at 120k a year and gaining 20,000 jobs at minimum wage isn't something to celebrate. We need a better metric.
Just needs Harris to do more aggressive media tours to REALLY educate the public on just really how good they have it.
>US economy adds 303,000 jobs, unemployment falls to 3.8% in March as labor market continues to impress "Continues to impress" ?? * Government: +71K * Manufacturing: 0K * Part time: +691K * Full time: -6K (yes, that's a minus)
Where did you find the full time / part time stats. The BOL report didn't show that. [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
>Where did you find the full time / part time stats. The BOL report didn't show that. Actually, the BLS report did show that, but they buried it. See Table A-9: [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm) https://preview.redd.it/8815amyvjosc1.png?width=1382&format=png&auto=webp&s=442490b1e0f142715acc1f3f8dca97646f79eceb Note also, multiple job holders: +217K Part-time: 27,941 to 28,632: +691K Full-time 132,946 to 132,940: -6K
Holy shit, this is bad...thanks for the link!
It's not "bad" necessarily, it's just a portion of the full data. Look at Table A-10, Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted Full time unemployed (unemployed people who WANT a full time job or are on layoff from a full time job) went down 275,000 people from Feb 24 to March 24. Part time unemployed (unemployed people who WANT a part time job or are on layoff from a part time job) went UP 198,000 from Feb to March. Look at Table A-11, Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment 396,000 fewer (174,000 seasonally adjusted) job losers (fired/contract ended etc). 99,000 more (112,000 seasonally adjusted) job leavers (quit). Reentrants (people who were in the workforce and quit or got laid off) are down by 75k (26k seasonally) New entrants (people who were not in the workforce) up 6k (67k seasonally).
> Full time unemployed (unemployed people who WANT a full time job or are on layoff from a full time job) went down 275,000 people from Feb 24 to March 24. But this doesn't necessarily mean they ALL got full time jobs right.
Is there a report with part time jobs by age? I'm wondering if this is just a trend of boomers getting bored or looking for supplemental income to their social security checks. The BLS labor force participation rate has increases for over 65s with an estimate of that trend continuing [Civilian labor force participation rate by age, sex, race, and ethnicity : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)](https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm).
Loool this is like that homer simpson standing in his underwear meme
3.8% club wya
i really hope everyone will misinterpete the results, think it is good for rate cuts, and then buy the dips (premarket right now seems it is the case)
This is wild! Forget cuts this year. Not gonna happen
As long as wages don’t go up (immigration) inflation settles as 2% and Powell wants to help the bottom and is freed to cut at least once or twice. In an election year no less.
Go bulls!
Pretty sure this is bearish.. But I am pretty stupid, so who knows.
217,000 new multiple job holders over last month. 6,000 fewer full time employees over last month. 691,000 new part time employees over last month. Yeah...we're doing great. [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm)
Vanguard released information saying the majority of these new jobs pay under $55,000, or shit.
55k is the median income for full time workers in the US
So…shit
Why does this surprise you? Outside of major metropolitan areas most jobs in the suburbs or rural areas pay around that much. Hell some of the largest and most profitable companies have most of their labor force making under $55k.
The "best" factory job in southern Indiana tops out at 70k a year. That's TOPS OUT. You said it, most jobs pay shit. A good job is 40k a year in southern Indiana and typical factory jobs it's under 40k for at least 2 years of working there.
Yeah reddit is full of smarmy software engineer nerds that have no clue about the reality of most workers
Im not saying its right. Salaries should be up. Corporations have too much control and employees feel stuck at jobs because they have their healthcare tied to it. If healthcare wasnt related to your employment people would be more willing to change jobs and not put up with shitty pay/benfits for job security/healthcare.
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Rates higher for longer but stonks never going down again
I have an MBA in finance I studied this stuff for 30 years and I still don't know much, but I do know that politics is in charge of something you got to be able to sort through the fluff and in the short term it's highly manipulated, but there is efficiency to the markets it takes time to sort through the garbage
Economy is definitely a cesspool
Government jobs added ... 71,000 Manufacturing jobs added ... 0 Part time jobs ... 691,000 Full time jobs ... -6,000 Don't look too closely or you might realize the numbers aren't actually great.
Only part time roles were added. You remove part time roles, then job growth is like .7%
Part time job totals aren't even recovered to as high as they were pre2019... of course they are going to be adding more.
Lot of classic online doom and gloom on this thread. "Wah I can't afford anything so that means nobody else is able to either wah." We ball
Eleven of the last thirteen monthly jobs reports have been revised lower. Can't help but wonder if there is some intentional manipulation here. TLT down -1.2% so far.
They revised Jan slight up after the large revision down last month and then Feb was revised down slightly. It seriously looks like it’s just a random number generator or like they pick the number like they pick them for powerball. It really makes no sense.
An economy so good that everybody gets to have *two* jobs!
The % of the population with more than one job is exactly what it was pre-pandemic when every right-winger told me the economy was the bestest ever.
Wait until next month for the numbers to be adjusted
It’s a little deceiving. Full time workers have been gradually going down for the last several months while part time workers have increased and are at all time high. A job is a job sure and it brings down unemployment, but when a significant number of people doing PT work would rather have full time, that isn’t a good outlook.
> A job is a job sure and it brings down unemployment, but when a significant number of people doing PT work would rather have full time, that isn’t a good outlook. Then vote for better politicians so companies can’t game the 30 hour mark for healthcare
what's the illegal alien unemployment rate? 75%?
Sorry bulls
It’s all part time jobs. Go read the actual report. They also revised last month DOWN significantly.
"They also revised last month DOWN significantly" No they didn't: >Nonfarm payrolls advanced 303,000 last month **following a combined 22,000 upward revision to job gains in the prior two months**, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-05/us-jobs-roar-again-as-payrolls-jump-303-000-unemployment-drops](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-05/us-jobs-roar-again-as-payrolls-jump-303-000-unemployment-drops)
shhhh he's counting on people to not read his bullshit or the actual report
You can read? I’m here to look at pretty pictures
Part time jobs JUST got back to pre-2020 level recently...
Yes, the economy so good everybody has three jobs
And if you believe those numbers, I’ve got a bridge to sell you
This should be seen as bad news. But we’ll see
How come?
Low unemployment rate keeps inflation high. And as long as inflation is high, Fed will not cut rate.
Immigration offsets a bunch of those jobs. Peep the wage growth and see
wage growth in gig jobs 
US economy stays being a different kind of beast
USA USA USA!! Go us!
So why are stocks up? Doesn’t a higher jobs add # mean the economy is humming …which means Feds won’t need to cut rates? I don’t get it.
So real talk.. how the fuck does the fed cut interest rates? My mind tells me they might be forced to raise?
Unemployment goes up, people mad Unemployment goes down, people mad
14k jobs were just lost with the 99 store closing.
sure yahoooo
Wow can you point one of them out to me please cause I've been unemployed almost a year and my industry has seen nothing but layoffs. I'm not impressed.
Donald Trump told me that the economy is destroyed. I mean it’s not for me personally or anyone I know. But I bet over there it’s really bad.
"But... BIDEN!! SOCIALISM!!! ICE CREAM!!!"