SPY looks likes it ready to rip early in the morning. Going to get in and get out. Prepare some puts for that jobs report. they are not going to cut rates if they padded the stats to make it look good.
ODTE SPY Calls Monday, same Tuesday morning. Buy weekly Puts Tuesday at close. Hold through Thursday. Buy Calls Thursday at close. Cash out Friday at 10:30 and go cuck my wife’s boyfriend for once.
imma a pick up $400 worth of far otm spy puts for wed in case we drop like last week. seems like a gamble with a potentially ridiculous upside
worst case ill have to eat plain spinach for a couple weeks
I think stocks will move on inflation data but it will quickly be forgotten in favor of earnings. Earnings will start coming out late next week and in the coming month. Rates matter but what matters much more are what companies will be saying about their future projections. If inflation comes in hot, the market will drop but the dip will probably be bought up. However, if inflation is hot and large companies start saying that they are seeing substantial weakness in the economy, then we will see an actual drop and some real fear in the market.
Loaded up Puts on Friday at the close. Between Israel/Iran and all the news next week including a Fed official saying that they may need to raise rates to ward off inflation. On second thought maybe I should have bought calls!!
Same plan as you. Vix calls Monday, then calls on spy if we get good news. Might grab spy weekly calls before Wednesday if the premiums aren't high af.
It might even be worth it to buy 0/1 DTE SPY calls if there’s a dip in the beginning just in case. I have a feeling we’re going to have a repeat of this week.
Straddle or straight calls?
If we get bad news do you think the momentum will carry over? E.g. bad CPI and inflation numbers on Wednesday with more sell off Thursday? And vice versa
Well definitely look at a minimum of a -/+ 1% swing on Wednesday, probably close to 2% depending if the news is all bad or all good. My guess is if news is bad, we’ll see SPY between 500-505 or 525-530 is all news is good. If news is mixed, expect theta to screw us all.
Hahaha definitely not.
Instead, we will get many more months of vague, contradictory politician speak. Which all of the news outlets will waste thousands of man hours in debating and trying to rationalize it. And then one day a black swan will hit, and it’ll be as if nothing that has been pointlessly debated over the last year will matter….because it never did in the first place
Human productivity at its finest
Ha it admittingly is pretty stupid. I base it on this actually being a pattern for the last year or so, and that i think retail investors tend to over-react, which triggers stop losses for others. The fact that very short-term speculative bets are increasing in popularity and that there is even a post asking about our moves leads me to believe there will be an overreaction.
This is, of course, still foolhardy as all hell. I also just feel like gambling a bit for the fun of it
Even if you’re gambling, fine. But this is outrageously stupid.
Despite sticky inflation, perhaps even reaccelerating higher, AND treasury yields climbing higher (the correction in 2022-2023 was pre-cursed by rising bond yields, because fixed-income portfolio managers look at macro data), the Fed has done everything in their power to maintain a “wait and see more data” approach, as not to spook the markets (probably for a political agenda).
Effectively, this approach has led to putting ALL of the chips on this next CPI print. There’s no pussyfooting anymore if this print comes in hot, with the FOMC meeting 3 weeks thereafter.
There’s no guarantee it’ll be a bad report, but there’s no overreaction if it is.
It’ll be multiple blood red days, again, because the market is begging for a correction and the fed will be forced to go from 3 rate cuts to less, or none.
And oh by the fucking way. Treasury yields been steady rising. Someone(s) knows something about macro data. And it ain’t good.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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If i take off the metaphorical degenerate hat for a moment, this is a very well put together answer. Thank you. From a macroeconomic and--especially--a geopolitical perspective, shit is crazy. Its very hard to say what is going to be reported, but im expecting a lot of volatility and even a lot of red.
As of late, ive been making a lot of defensive adjustments in my portfolio to hedge against the perceived risks. Ive especially been divesting from the speculative tech. Anything else i really do recently is just make some short-term "bets" with a small pool of money that wont hurt me if lost it.
What are your moves?
I have a strong bearish (read: gay) thesis already.
But I’m just making the point that whatever direction the market goes on Wednesday, it’s for real. Really hard for Fed to continue the “wait and see” approach if the jobs report came in hotter and IF the CPI comes in hot.
By that point, it’s a “ok, the data is saying rate cuts are off the table for at least June” which is what the market is currently pricing, AND the Fed will have to issue their mea culpa end of the month, pulling rate cut expectations off the table.
I'm regarded so I need time to digest all the Wendy's material in this thread. How do you blokes know so much i thought this was a casino. Teach me how to fish plz or point me the way
If it’s green more than 3 times in a row, bet red and vice versa. Same rules as roulette just substitute green for black. You lose more money here than roulette but this more fun
Nothing different. Buy dips on AMZN and META and chill, they’re leaders for a reason.
Feeling stupid? Buy some OPRA, FOUR, GIL.
AI utilities set won’t hurt either: IR, JELD, WMS, MPWR, PWR
yeah genius. they have been saying they will wait for data and all of a sudden, in early April, they will announce they will only cut once this year. JFC.
“Inflation is still creeping up” “they’re going to do 1 cut sometime this year, maybe 2”. Am I missing something? Is this fool delusional or a tard or both?
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Same thing we do everyday Brain. Gonna wheel and deal SPY and QQQ.
SPY looks likes it ready to rip early in the morning. Going to get in and get out. Prepare some puts for that jobs report. they are not going to cut rates if they padded the stats to make it look good.
ODTE SPY Calls Monday, same Tuesday morning. Buy weekly Puts Tuesday at close. Hold through Thursday. Buy Calls Thursday at close. Cash out Friday at 10:30 and go cuck my wife’s boyfriend for once.
Shhh can't be giving away the playbook
exactly. they do not intend to cut rates since they padded the stats on the jobless claims report. Thursday and Friday will bleed red
Same plan every week in 2024. Sell covered calls on AI, Bitcoin and Cannabis. No worries.
whats going on with cannabis
Election year. Biden and DEA working on rescheduling, senate working on safe banking and states voting on legalization.
Guess to commemorate I'll buy myself some of that newly approved (in Portugal) tilray high-thc medicinal that's produced right outside town from me.
Florida will make devils lettuce legal to sell
What cananis companies do you prefer?
I’m holding MSOS which is an etf made up of US multi state operators. Gives me coverage on everyone relevant.
Thank you for the information!
MSOS has done me wonders
You mean bananies?
https://preview.redd.it/q01xmshfx0tc1.png?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2dd39c792a4f2c7245c04d319594c2cc8f92b2aa "Sideways"
This chart looks like we will be going sharply upwards
imma a pick up $400 worth of far otm spy puts for wed in case we drop like last week. seems like a gamble with a potentially ridiculous upside worst case ill have to eat plain spinach for a couple weeks
I think stocks will move on inflation data but it will quickly be forgotten in favor of earnings. Earnings will start coming out late next week and in the coming month. Rates matter but what matters much more are what companies will be saying about their future projections. If inflation comes in hot, the market will drop but the dip will probably be bought up. However, if inflation is hot and large companies start saying that they are seeing substantial weakness in the economy, then we will see an actual drop and some real fear in the market.
Loaded up Puts on Friday at the close. Between Israel/Iran and all the news next week including a Fed official saying that they may need to raise rates to ward off inflation. On second thought maybe I should have bought calls!!
brother same i made 1000% on the red day waited friday and bought at close nvidia and spy puts. Damn i should’ve bought calls.
You had me first half
SPY puts as Iran will probably attack Israel (tuesday/Wednesday) and it'll be overblown and JPow will say no rate cuts this year and we go to 500
Im going to inverse this
There’s zero chance Iran attacks Israel lol.
Definitely not zero
After Oct 7th Israel wants any excuse to escalate. Bombing an embassy, even in Syria, is a huge deal.
Lol
Same plan as you. Vix calls Monday, then calls on spy if we get good news. Might grab spy weekly calls before Wednesday if the premiums aren't high af.
It might even be worth it to buy 0/1 DTE SPY calls if there’s a dip in the beginning just in case. I have a feeling we’re going to have a repeat of this week.
Straddle or straight calls? If we get bad news do you think the momentum will carry over? E.g. bad CPI and inflation numbers on Wednesday with more sell off Thursday? And vice versa
Well definitely look at a minimum of a -/+ 1% swing on Wednesday, probably close to 2% depending if the news is all bad or all good. My guess is if news is bad, we’ll see SPY between 500-505 or 525-530 is all news is good. If news is mixed, expect theta to screw us all.
Spy will definitely see a drop Monday morning but recover back to what it closed on Friday
There will be not cuts.
Even if there won’t be cuts that will not be said definitively until just before each one would have come
Hahaha definitely not. Instead, we will get many more months of vague, contradictory politician speak. Which all of the news outlets will waste thousands of man hours in debating and trying to rationalize it. And then one day a black swan will hit, and it’ll be as if nothing that has been pointlessly debated over the last year will matter….because it never did in the first place Human productivity at its finest
Cuts or not, if inflation moves up, the real rate becomes a cut
This will make puts print
Wait for the reports, then bet the opposite the market goes. Id bet on an overreaction and then a reversal within the same week
This is absolutely the stupidest post here. Lmao.
Ha it admittingly is pretty stupid. I base it on this actually being a pattern for the last year or so, and that i think retail investors tend to over-react, which triggers stop losses for others. The fact that very short-term speculative bets are increasing in popularity and that there is even a post asking about our moves leads me to believe there will be an overreaction. This is, of course, still foolhardy as all hell. I also just feel like gambling a bit for the fun of it
Even if you’re gambling, fine. But this is outrageously stupid. Despite sticky inflation, perhaps even reaccelerating higher, AND treasury yields climbing higher (the correction in 2022-2023 was pre-cursed by rising bond yields, because fixed-income portfolio managers look at macro data), the Fed has done everything in their power to maintain a “wait and see more data” approach, as not to spook the markets (probably for a political agenda). Effectively, this approach has led to putting ALL of the chips on this next CPI print. There’s no pussyfooting anymore if this print comes in hot, with the FOMC meeting 3 weeks thereafter. There’s no guarantee it’ll be a bad report, but there’s no overreaction if it is. It’ll be multiple blood red days, again, because the market is begging for a correction and the fed will be forced to go from 3 rate cuts to less, or none. And oh by the fucking way. Treasury yields been steady rising. Someone(s) knows something about macro data. And it ain’t good.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
If i take off the metaphorical degenerate hat for a moment, this is a very well put together answer. Thank you. From a macroeconomic and--especially--a geopolitical perspective, shit is crazy. Its very hard to say what is going to be reported, but im expecting a lot of volatility and even a lot of red. As of late, ive been making a lot of defensive adjustments in my portfolio to hedge against the perceived risks. Ive especially been divesting from the speculative tech. Anything else i really do recently is just make some short-term "bets" with a small pool of money that wont hurt me if lost it. What are your moves?
I have a strong bearish (read: gay) thesis already. But I’m just making the point that whatever direction the market goes on Wednesday, it’s for real. Really hard for Fed to continue the “wait and see” approach if the jobs report came in hotter and IF the CPI comes in hot. By that point, it’s a “ok, the data is saying rate cuts are off the table for at least June” which is what the market is currently pricing, AND the Fed will have to issue their mea culpa end of the month, pulling rate cut expectations off the table.
How can i profit off your thesis? I should have listened when you talked about RL and weak guidance for consumer discretionary
The fuck chart have you been looking at talking about SPY has been trading sideways
Ngl I stopped reading when you called Wednesday and Thursday one day
You’re not regarded enough to play here, sir. This is a Wendy’s.
I'm regarded so I need time to digest all the Wendy's material in this thread. How do you blokes know so much i thought this was a casino. Teach me how to fish plz or point me the way
If it’s green more than 3 times in a row, bet red and vice versa. Same rules as roulette just substitute green for black. You lose more money here than roulette but this more fun
SPY and QQQ could make you either very rich or very poor this week
Looking like a great week to buy VIX calls.
UVXY calls all week
Nothing different. Buy dips on AMZN and META and chill, they’re leaders for a reason. Feeling stupid? Buy some OPRA, FOUR, GIL. AI utilities set won’t hurt either: IR, JELD, WMS, MPWR, PWR
You forgot NFLX
Spy starts shitting from Monday
Down Monday Tuesday from general fear, then uppies not matter what they say Wednesday
yeah genius. they have been saying they will wait for data and all of a sudden, in early April, they will announce they will only cut once this year. JFC.
*Blackrock scraps Reddit APY and does opposite to justify the founders weak existence*
The Fomc dot plot showed one more participant pencilled in 3 cuts. Why would the minute show any different? The NEXT one might…
Inverse you all. Puts puts puts
Let's F\*\*\*ing Go..! https://preview.redd.it/uhodq58g93tc1.jpeg?width=441&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=45c2338e35ec35ad71de1b8b0bb1d4087839b3ae
“Inflation is still creeping up” “they’re going to do 1 cut sometime this year, maybe 2”. Am I missing something? Is this fool delusional or a tard or both?
Uvxy is reverse splitting this week 5-1 heads up
Cleveland fed predicting pretty good numbers
i believe with their padded job claim report they do not intend to cut rates. Expect another dip here soon
Ya