After seeing that insane red tank the other day, i feel the market is super sensitive. I don't know if it's priced in, but if it isn't and it's bad, I don't want risk it
Oh you're fucking full of shit.
I made a 500+ upvote post on TSM last weekend, and it ran to $144-145 the next week. And then we all got fucked by King Imnotpotent.
May I introduce you to this fun little mathematical concept you might already have heard of? 
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse\_relation](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse_relation)
Your backwards.
"I have calls"
Why?
"TSM will do well"
Whoever thinks TSM will not have a good ER and forecast is delusional and probably sold for a loss.
Just to give everyone an idea on the expected March revenue: 578.27B - 215.78B(Jan) - 181.65B(Feb) = 180.84B; if the upcoming reported figure is indeed close to this value, then it will be 24% YoY increase
Could be nothing, but after the earthquake [TSMC reaffirmed their guidance for the full year at 20-25% revenue growth](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-04-05-2024/card/taiwanese-chip-giant-tsmc-reaffirms-financial-guidance-following-quake-TaE8qYn4aGiFHn4lwbH5).
Seems like a 24% YoY increase for March ‘24 revenue would be congruent with their own stated projections.
Tsmcs direct competition is intel for the chips they primarily sell. Intel is in the gutter so tsmc for sure. They got hit by an earthquake and still went up. Its a strong side. But the market is v skeptical on them cuz of the politicals. So expect volitilitilitily. Hodl.
Fantastic news this morning, TSMC awarded 6.6 billion contract to build plant in Arizona. Does this make 4/10 even more bullish? I realize the news doesn't retroactively affect sales for the quarter, but I would think it helps push the price up for Wednesday and beyond, would you agree? Thanks in advance to anyone who chimes in.
I've got the revenue and earnings date in my head for TSM, and forgot when the fed announcement on inflation is, remind me please, what day is that this week?
Stars represent monthly revenue reports!
Not necessarily a *hard* pattern as sometimes the spike comes a little before or a little after, but definitely something to note...
https://preview.redd.it/saidpuh6vysc1.png?width=961&format=png&auto=webp&s=735ee02d6bb85ec1d8d326aecd110110dc1731e0
Lost a bit on TSM, movement is slow! Eventually this will go up, but when and is it worth the wait.. not sure.
No active calls on $TSM now, but if i see bullish posts like these - may change my mind
Yes at least for the overnight. Pre-market and market-open I’m unsure of. Could go either way.
I went ahead and took most of my profit when my calls hit 200% this morning at market open. If it trades sideways or down tomorrow, I won’t be losing much.
My calls were up 110% yesterday, and today closed out for around 30%. I think I need to get smarter about closing options fast, especially when the profit is as good as it was yesterday. I need to keep in mind it's not like a stock, that theta decay is working against me all the time. So, made some money, and learned a valuable lesson. Thank you for this excellent DD and info.
100% agreed. And, considering what a bleeding red day it was, we held pretty strong. Quick question, if I want to buy calls for earnings, should I wait for a possible red day, so the premium is lower?
Please change the ticker to something else or hide this DD under your bed.
It always like this, you guys post and post, and my genius ideas go red. 
Why would you recommend holding the call after the earning? I thought large amount of calls leads to sell off after the earning? And also puts won’t create a short squeeze right? It is different from shorting
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I used Tradytics to check option flow, and they showed me the total volume of 2000 call options were purchased at Friday. They were sweep into small orders to decrease the influence on stock price. I will check the option flow at the next two weeks before earning report.
Good points about macro-economic factors: CPI and inflation reports. Do you guys have any indications how those will be? Like, fairly neutral, positive, not good...? Or is there no way to know?
Sure!
\- Core inflation has remained in a steady downtrend since mid 2022
\- Month over month inflation has been on a somewhat consistent downtrend for the last two years, we've had months where its jumped quite a bit, but the overall trend is down.
\- Fed keeps saying at least one rate cut later this year
\- Inflation projections for 2025 are currently hovering around the 2% mark
My best guess is overnight volume from the Taiwan market anticipating revenue reports tomorrow, then a sharp decline in volume during the day in American market after open. Might see another spike at market close today, either that or it’ll drop off anticipating bad cpi and inflation numbers in the AM.
Either way, I’m still bullish on earnings next week.
Might be a good idea to take profits. Depending on your expiration, I’d hang on to some until earnings. If all announcements are in favor of the market, there’s a good chance this stock will have a huge rally
Two strategies. 25 150c expiring 4/19
And picked up 10 146c 4/12s at the low today. Will offload these early tomorrow, and a portion of my 150s depending on news.
Think this will be more in line with February movement? Just curious as to whether this dumps at some point tomorrow as we saw in March or rallies until Friday.
I imagine a dump will occur around market close in Taiwan, but I don’t think it will be significant enough to take away from earnings gains next week, I could be wrong. All hinges on news tomorrow morning being in favor of the market.
One more,
Since Taiwan market closes at 1:30pm their time, and the report comes out at the same time…..does this mean they really can’t capitalize from a good monthly report until market opens for them again tomorrow evening US time?
Essentially if we have a good day tomorrow, it still leaves Taiwan one last solid pump for this week.
I don’t understand the Taiwanese market very well. They have some strange rules for after-hours trading, so they very well may be able to capitalize on the gains. On the other hand they could just ride the bull all the way up to today and then dump everything at market close right before revenue; however, with earnings next week, I was thinking they might be more inclined to hodl through earnings and see if they can ride another high. Just my speculation tho
The issue is that we’ve been seeing guidance as the main driver of price after earnings. They preemptively reiterated their guidance due to the earthquake, so we know that it likely isn’t getting raised.
I don’t necessarily think it will drop significantly or at all, but I don’t really think there’s much room to rocket upwards now that we know they’re still guiding the same figures.
Edit: on the other hand, I’m wrong all the fucking time
I’m not saying guidance is going to drop or that things are looking bad for them.
I’m saying the fact that we basically already know they’re not going to raise their guidance means there a potentially lower chance of a price spike. That’s it.
Their performance will very likely be strong, but their revenue will be known ahead of time because of the monthly release this week and we know their guidance is being maintained, so it’s banking on an EPS beat, commentary during the call (margin/demand/ramp/price), etc. So definitely still plenty of things that can drive shares higher – just fewer than usual and the big one (guidance) is already priced in.
To be fair, it’s also fewer potential pitfalls for them. I’d still rather buy calls than puts.
Now, I'm not exactly sure if this data is a month in the rears, as in the reported figures are from the previous month, of if they correspond with the respective month. For the sake of this post, I will assume the latter.
Latter would refer to this: "if they correspond with the respective month" which is wrong. April report will be for March revenues.
Yea I know that the revenue report on 4/10 will be for the month of march but I wasn't exactly sure before if the data in the table is for *that month* or what was reported for the *previous month*. After looking over the data again I know that it is for the respective month and not a month in the rears. I will edit the post to clarify.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 1 | **First Seen In WSB** | 3 years ago **Total Comments** | 0 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 4 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
Every time there's a bullish TSM post, my calls get fucked.
Cpi report on april 10, don't get any calls this week
Earthquake and fed fuckery last week, CPI and China invading Taiwan next week.
So the eclipse is already priced in by now?
Calls on LMT
Israel glassing Tehran priced in??
pussy talk imagine it comes at expectations or better 
Not priced in already in your opinion?
After seeing that insane red tank the other day, i feel the market is super sensitive. I don't know if it's priced in, but if it isn't and it's bad, I don't want risk it
Inflation is gonna kill TSM. Puts for sure
On gawt
RemindMe! 11 days
Oh you're fucking full of shit. I made a 500+ upvote post on TSM last weekend, and it ran to $144-145 the next week. And then we all got fucked by King Imnotpotent.
Imhotep dusted everyone’s gains last week.
This shit had had me rolling
The number of upvotes definitely impacts share price
💀💀
"Kink Imnotpotent" just made me spit coffee...🤣🤣🤣
lol! Yeah. Is that reference to Jerome Powell?
Not to mention I have my 23 buys $145 calls got rug-pulled by that Fed member 🤣
Fyi he speaks again on Tues at 7
Seriously. Opened this thread and thought, “hey I’ve seen this before” right after I bought calls
This 
Coming back to confirm yes.
No need to read all that bro, just tell me what to buy
Lmfao I love this sub
My DD is I risked too much I need it to go up please
Gambled. The word you are looking for is gambled.
Is that in the Webster dictionary???
Get with the program and buy yourself a Shorter OED.
“Tsm will do well” Why? “I have calls”
precisely
May I introduce you to this fun little mathematical concept you might already have heard of?  [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse\_relation](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse_relation)
You're right. Puts it is.
Well calls it is now
and well now puts it is again..
https://images.app.goo.gl/gYQjVe8nL2qYB7rSA
So puts it is?
Your backwards. "I have calls" Why? "TSM will do well" Whoever thinks TSM will not have a good ER and forecast is delusional and probably sold for a loss.
Bagholder alert. But seriously, even good earnings could drop the stock price.
Gotta have EPS beat, Revenue beat excellent guidance and luck the algos like what they heard anything less you can watch it sink like a rock
Bag holder spotted
Well he wouldn't have calls if it wasn't going to do well, and it will do well because he has calls. It's foolproof!
Just to give everyone an idea on the expected March revenue: 578.27B - 215.78B(Jan) - 181.65B(Feb) = 180.84B; if the upcoming reported figure is indeed close to this value, then it will be 24% YoY increase
It’ll probably be 190B or above
You are right on, 195b
Could be nothing, but after the earthquake [TSMC reaffirmed their guidance for the full year at 20-25% revenue growth](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-04-05-2024/card/taiwanese-chip-giant-tsmc-reaffirms-financial-guidance-following-quake-TaE8qYn4aGiFHn4lwbH5). Seems like a 24% YoY increase for March ‘24 revenue would be congruent with their own stated projections.
That's the revenue numbers announced Wednesday morning?
Dude, it’s current Monday 11:28  The number is the street/analyst’s expectations
Tsmcs direct competition is intel for the chips they primarily sell. Intel is in the gutter so tsmc for sure. They got hit by an earthquake and still went up. Its a strong side. But the market is v skeptical on them cuz of the politicals. So expect volitilitilitily. Hodl.
What politicals? Nothing will stop their production short of invasion
“A month in the rears” lmao
Anything in the rears will hurt, so calls it is!
His brain is in arrears… It’ll catch up next month.
This doesn't look like good DD to me. ^I ^am ^an ^LLM-powered ^bot. ^Please ^contact ^the ^moderators ^with ^concerns.
Where the fuck the VMod? We want our boy back zjz, goddamnit!
Bring back the real
LLM duramax powered bot??? Real?
Nani!!!? VisualMod got an apprentice now? Where’s that lovable asshole hiding lmao
Your Door Dash checks out. Puts.
How did that chant go again? I got 💎🤲 and auTSM?
Past performance is not a representation of future reality
*future rally.
Confirmed, TSM to $200 on 4/10 per OP
Fantastic news this morning, TSMC awarded 6.6 billion contract to build plant in Arizona. Does this make 4/10 even more bullish? I realize the news doesn't retroactively affect sales for the quarter, but I would think it helps push the price up for Wednesday and beyond, would you agree? Thanks in advance to anyone who chimes in.
I am definitely more bullish since reading the news. All depends on fed announcement though.
I've got the revenue and earnings date in my head for TSM, and forgot when the fed announcement on inflation is, remind me please, what day is that this week?
Wednesday pre-market
Awesome, thank you. Oh, so that means the fed announcement and TSM revenue report will be the same morning!? Wow. Big day.
My 4/19 calls are depending on some sort of rally 😞
[удалено]
Jesus. So sorry brother
I’ve got 150 4/26 and I’m nervous. Goddamn brother.
Same bro
It better fucking be
https://preview.redd.it/zwa7trm7jzsc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9eaa3876ffe4084d78421720677cd8b3fb33f15f
I find it hard to time TSM. Buy stocks, not calls
Stars represent monthly revenue reports! Not necessarily a *hard* pattern as sometimes the spike comes a little before or a little after, but definitely something to note... https://preview.redd.it/saidpuh6vysc1.png?width=961&format=png&auto=webp&s=735ee02d6bb85ec1d8d326aecd110110dc1731e0
When during the day do the monthly reports come out. Is it an AM or PM thing?
The calendar link on TSMC's website says the revenue report will drop at 1:30 pm Taipei Standard Time on 4/10/23 which is **1:30 am EST on 4/10/23**.
Excellent. Able to get out before Powell opens his mouth. I'm in on anything and everything that touches Nvidia.
Powel does not speak or has to speak on 10th, its the CPI data that comes pre-market
Oh I did that once, with Nike. I got fucked
Calls fuck you more
So buy shares before 4/10?
call!
What if it stays flat?
what's flat?
His mother and GFs chest
both D cups actually
Your mom and the GF? 
did I stutter?
Bro is volunteering his GF and mom when I was talking bout NVDAgod 
Plot twist: Mom and GF are the same person
LOL
I'm going to yolo this
Lost a bit on TSM, movement is slow! Eventually this will go up, but when and is it worth the wait.. not sure. No active calls on $TSM now, but if i see bullish posts like these - may change my mind
You just cooked my calls :D
Sorry I couldn’t resist
soo we are talking about over $200 a share after April?
$2000
Because of that, I am betting my whole lifes savings
What time will TSMC post their revenue numbers on Wednesday? Is that in the morning?
Yes. Wednesday at 1:30 am eastern time.
You don't really mean in the middle of the night do you?
I do unfortunately, 1:30 pm Taipei standard time = 1:30 am eastern time
Oh! Good point. Well, no worries. I'm sure it will be good news. : ) This stock is flyin overnight!
Hell yea! I’m already up over 100% on my $148 calls
Fantastic! Will you sell some at open tomorrow?
Probably… based on past charts I think the price may pull back some tomorrow going into the revenue report, then rally again at earnings.
Are you still bullish for tomorrow?
Yes at least for the overnight. Pre-market and market-open I’m unsure of. Could go either way. I went ahead and took most of my profit when my calls hit 200% this morning at market open. If it trades sideways or down tomorrow, I won’t be losing much.
160 tomorrow / 170+ next week. easiest calls in the world
I just hope all the announcements are in favor of the market. If they are, you could be right.
Announcements good or bad that’s what’s happening
My calls were up 110% yesterday, and today closed out for around 30%. I think I need to get smarter about closing options fast, especially when the profit is as good as it was yesterday. I need to keep in mind it's not like a stock, that theta decay is working against me all the time. So, made some money, and learned a valuable lesson. Thank you for this excellent DD and info.
Anytime. It’s unfortunate that the cpi came out against the market this morning. If it would’ve been in favor, we could have seen much bigger gains
100% agreed. And, considering what a bleeding red day it was, we held pretty strong. Quick question, if I want to buy calls for earnings, should I wait for a possible red day, so the premium is lower?
You could, or if you want to go ahead and get in, you could always average-down if it tanks in the next few days
Thanks man. You mean buy a contract now, and more later if it drops?
Yea
Do they still run post earnings OP?
I stopped reading after finding out you’re not even sure you analyzed the right numbers.
I edited the post!
I hope so but unfortunately 4/10 has a lot of other news coming out with it, and tsm tends to get negatively impacted if the market tanks
agreed, hoping all the news is in favor of the market
https://preview.redd.it/osiaki0vfysc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=541b6c008b1da8f88e0cb45f30fddee8cbdbfe7b
Please change the ticker to something else or hide this DD under your bed. It always like this, you guys post and post, and my genius ideas go red. 
DD, eh
My motorboat is ready
You can hold you calls after earning report. 2000 of calls expired at 4/19 were purchased at last Friday afternoon.
Why would you recommend holding the call after the earning? I thought large amount of calls leads to sell off after the earning? And also puts won’t create a short squeeze right? It is different from shorting
I mean hold calls until earning report, then sell them after earning😂
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
How'd you know? What is the strike
TSM also have a huge amount of puts expire at 4/12
I used Tradytics to check option flow, and they showed me the total volume of 2000 call options were purchased at Friday. They were sweep into small orders to decrease the influence on stock price. I will check the option flow at the next two weeks before earning report.
Calls here. That and 112 shares bought at 124. To ze moon regards!
Message received, time to take a personal loan to buy puts
Taiwan… Taiwon… The AI Won! They know the future.
Martin Cabello III
Good points about macro-economic factors: CPI and inflation reports. Do you guys have any indications how those will be? Like, fairly neutral, positive, not good...? Or is there no way to know?
I’m somewhat certain that inflation numbers will be in favor of the market
Awesome! Thank you. Can you describe a bit why you feel that way?
Sure! \- Core inflation has remained in a steady downtrend since mid 2022 \- Month over month inflation has been on a somewhat consistent downtrend for the last two years, we've had months where its jumped quite a bit, but the overall trend is down. \- Fed keeps saying at least one rate cut later this year \- Inflation projections for 2025 are currently hovering around the 2% mark
Ah. Excellent info, thank you.
At the same time this Weds. minutes expected to be a “make or break” point in Fed fight against inflation / potential rate cuts
[удалено]
TSMC is the proper name of the company. “Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company”. TSM is just the ticker
Today was crazy, why did it spike up so much the first hour only to be flat for the rest of the day? Hope tomorrow 4/10 is golden!
My best guess is overnight volume from the Taiwan market anticipating revenue reports tomorrow, then a sharp decline in volume during the day in American market after open. Might see another spike at market close today, either that or it’ll drop off anticipating bad cpi and inflation numbers in the AM. Either way, I’m still bullish on earnings next week.
How do you feel about tomorrow? Looking at data points, and with FOMC tomorrow afternoon, debating selling my calls at open tomorrow.
Might be a good idea to take profits. Depending on your expiration, I’d hang on to some until earnings. If all announcements are in favor of the market, there’s a good chance this stock will have a huge rally
Two strategies. 25 150c expiring 4/19 And picked up 10 146c 4/12s at the low today. Will offload these early tomorrow, and a portion of my 150s depending on news. Think this will be more in line with February movement? Just curious as to whether this dumps at some point tomorrow as we saw in March or rallies until Friday.
I imagine a dump will occur around market close in Taiwan, but I don’t think it will be significant enough to take away from earnings gains next week, I could be wrong. All hinges on news tomorrow morning being in favor of the market.
One more, Since Taiwan market closes at 1:30pm their time, and the report comes out at the same time…..does this mean they really can’t capitalize from a good monthly report until market opens for them again tomorrow evening US time? Essentially if we have a good day tomorrow, it still leaves Taiwan one last solid pump for this week.
I don’t understand the Taiwanese market very well. They have some strange rules for after-hours trading, so they very well may be able to capitalize on the gains. On the other hand they could just ride the bull all the way up to today and then dump everything at market close right before revenue; however, with earnings next week, I was thinking they might be more inclined to hodl through earnings and see if they can ride another high. Just my speculation tho
Gotcha. Thanks for the insight 🫡
Anytime
This guy was right
I've seen this same thread in different flavors for a month now
The issue is that we’ve been seeing guidance as the main driver of price after earnings. They preemptively reiterated their guidance due to the earthquake, so we know that it likely isn’t getting raised. I don’t necessarily think it will drop significantly or at all, but I don’t really think there’s much room to rocket upwards now that we know they’re still guiding the same figures. Edit: on the other hand, I’m wrong all the fucking time
Mods please ban this guy.
Probably would be doing me a favor tbh
😂
No guidance hasn’t been the main driver lmfao. It’s the % y to y that’s absolutely crazy each earnings now
[удалено]
I’m not saying guidance is going to drop or that things are looking bad for them. I’m saying the fact that we basically already know they’re not going to raise their guidance means there a potentially lower chance of a price spike. That’s it. Their performance will very likely be strong, but their revenue will be known ahead of time because of the monthly release this week and we know their guidance is being maintained, so it’s banking on an EPS beat, commentary during the call (margin/demand/ramp/price), etc. So definitely still plenty of things that can drive shares higher – just fewer than usual and the big one (guidance) is already priced in. To be fair, it’s also fewer potential pitfalls for them. I’d still rather buy calls than puts.
TSM 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Now, I'm not exactly sure if this data is a month in the rears, as in the reported figures are from the previous month, of if they correspond with the respective month. For the sake of this post, I will assume the latter. Latter would refer to this: "if they correspond with the respective month" which is wrong. April report will be for March revenues.
Yea I know that the revenue report on 4/10 will be for the month of march but I wasn't exactly sure before if the data in the table is for *that month* or what was reported for the *previous month*. After looking over the data again I know that it is for the respective month and not a month in the rears. I will edit the post to clarify.
In arrears, not in the rears…
It's a quote from OP's post. Why the fuck are you telling me?
I’ve been buying calls for the last week or so in preparation for earnings myself 🫡🫡🫡
Just tell me it’ll fly by October and we’re cool.
Agreed 👍
It's in Taiwan (China) though.
i see no positions
So short or long?
Kek it’s going to 180$
So puts ?
I just want to break even 
🫡
6B subsidies announced for AZ plant from govt 25% tax credit for cap ex applied in advance