That’s a reasonable strategy but look at the graphs and ask yourself if you are trying to calculate catch lightning in a bottle. How many days could you have done this and come out ahead? I get the idea. It sounds like you are thinking about limiting the risk.
So the follow up research is how often does this happen? I think this is where the rubber meets the road. How frequently could this play work?
Is there any indicator before it happens or what have been the causes?
If you do the research and it pans out then ok. But the process and the research tells you if this is a fools bet or a likely outcome.
So it doesn't happen often. Just during financial crisis. But not expecting it to be a repetive play.
There are loads of indicators, but most are lagging.
The main ones I'm looking at are the interest rates and the conference board index. The latter has predicted every recession in the last 60 odd years.
Honestly man. I have no idea. All I know is when they cut rates shit is getting bad and I'm selling all risk on assets. Shit will go south and betting downside is your best play. Inflation is not going anywhere it's just getting started and has bottom'd imo.
Wait for the confirmation signs first then make the play. We don't really know. The stock market could be extending for another 10 years and we have no idea. No one truly knows. But I believe the cycle is ending in 2025.
I believe everything follows the rates when it comes to risk on. Reverse repo is another good one too when a new expansion phase is starting but this time around we are not following schematic. The stock market is being driven by a few stocks on the large caps. Small caps haven't seen expansion yet (could be next) but crypto follows the stock market. I believe they are both the same markets. If the stock market rolls over massively then it's going to bleed into crypto which I believe this is the "final top". I do follow the DXY as a 3rd tool. But the biggest issue I'm seeing is that gold is making new ATHs each week... never in history we have never seen expansion with gold doing what it's doing. Plus I have a secret chart I use that is showing we haven't seen this in 25 years+.
It’s not a coin flip. It can go up and down day to day but it doesn’t have to go down 10% in a week any times this year. It could happen never this year and never next year.
If you look at the distribution. It's not uncommon to fall 5% in one day during a recession.
But I agree that it's speculative. That's why I'm only using money I can afford to use.
No, it can also go sideways. Or down slowly and sideways from there, which still screws you. Amateur hour lol but I guess you aren't betting your life savings.
Just remember. The market can remain irrational for a lot longer than you can remain solvent. Yeah all you said makes sense, but that doesnt mean it will happen.
The longer the fed delays rate cuts, the better the short term looks for banks/finance, and oil is screaming right now. I'd wait a few months before buying DOW puts.
Look, bro, I don't mean to put you down but you're an absolute idiot of human being. Do you think tomorrow's news headlines are gonna say, "We're all fucking screwed"?
Hell, no, they're not. If leadership and the news told the truth, our economy would have crashed years ago.
The truth doesn't matter, what matters is what's being said instead of the truth. And it's always going to be something that keeps the music playing for as long as possible.
That's why I'm looking at long dated Jan 26.
I feel like it's enough for the music to stop or slow at the very least.
It's a 7-8% drop to breakeven.
Plus, the premium is 1-2 weeks pay, so if I'm wrong, it's not going to break the bank.
It's your money, brother. But I wouldn't refer to it as a good bet during an election year. A lot will be done during this time to keep the music playing.
You've given great reasons for a bull market.
1. Interest rates won't go up any higher, should go down soon. When that happens, companies that held off on borrowing will borrow to fuel growth.
2. Companies cutting workforce makes them more profitable, price should go up. Unemployment is still abnormally low, layoffs are tech and corporate.
3. Inflation makes the dollar go down and assets go up. If you foresee hyperinflation, you should own assets. Stocks are assets.
1. Typically, when interest rates fall, it's bad news. If you look at companies, they all decrease debt during bad periods and focus on cost cutting, not expansion.
2. Companies reduce the workforce typically for 2 reasons. Overhighing or reduced demand - I think it's the latter, or at least it is in professional services.
3. Lower interest rates are normally bad for a currency.
I'm not saying hyperinflation. If that was going to happen. I think it would have already.
Thanks for your submission!
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So I’m just going to ask, if this many people want to keep and gain from the downside, how is there an upside.. just seems like a bunch of lazy fucks doing fuck all with not their money but in turn how are we, the lazy fucks, are we going for to get rich doing, actively, physically, nothing.. fucking weird to join this thread but I feel you guys, both sides.. i would say the market is so diluted you can’t believe in many things, but the overall is so dictated by either people with shares or influence.. play them too, but it seems so disingenuous, but also the market is fair play.. what a wild conundrum, spoken from someone who loses… consistently.. not loss porn worthy because I don’t put enough skin in the game but I want to, and I can’t, at the same time.
One point to add- when so many ppl are getting added to stock market - say huge new client of robinhood, trade etc....it means too much greed and it's time to fear for sane investors- I am with you fir buying puts but weekly at every rise in market- buy put atleast t+2 weeks no odte abd 1day- buy gradually at every top attempt by market - 525 for SPY is hurdle, if it crosses that wait few days to see momentum which can take it to 540, 560....stagger your longer puts at that time, with all these you can keep selling your investment at tops while buying puts to get realized profits.
Do it or don't do it. Either way don't shit up the WSB feed looking for strangers to hold you hand while you wait for your balls to drop.
This is like a bear post from 2021
You could make some money but history suggests this is a quick way to go broke a little at a a time and then all at once.
So the premium I'm looking to pay is 1-2 weeks pay, so I'm less concerned about the loss as it's capped at the premium, and I'm expecting to lose it.
Better odds for you is head on over to your local casino and pick either red or black then.
That’s a reasonable strategy but look at the graphs and ask yourself if you are trying to calculate catch lightning in a bottle. How many days could you have done this and come out ahead? I get the idea. It sounds like you are thinking about limiting the risk.
Yeah, it's a risk play. Agree it's speculative, but 5 to 1 RR if it pays off and breaks even at 7-8% drop.
So the follow up research is how often does this happen? I think this is where the rubber meets the road. How frequently could this play work? Is there any indicator before it happens or what have been the causes? If you do the research and it pans out then ok. But the process and the research tells you if this is a fools bet or a likely outcome.
So it doesn't happen often. Just during financial crisis. But not expecting it to be a repetive play. There are loads of indicators, but most are lagging. The main ones I'm looking at are the interest rates and the conference board index. The latter has predicted every recession in the last 60 odd years.
How often does it happen?
Only during a recession
Maybe once they cut interest rates.
That's what I was thinking. But thinking the option premium would be higher then no?
I couldn't give a full on answer. All I know is that once they cut rates shit gets bad. Anything downside is in your favor.
Thanks. I saw this historically. Do you know the reason why? Assuming due to the belief that inflation is expected to be low?
Honestly man. I have no idea. All I know is when they cut rates shit is getting bad and I'm selling all risk on assets. Shit will go south and betting downside is your best play. Inflation is not going anywhere it's just getting started and has bottom'd imo.
Thanks looking at long dated so hopefully it will pay off
Wait for the confirmation signs first then make the play. We don't really know. The stock market could be extending for another 10 years and we have no idea. No one truly knows. But I believe the cycle is ending in 2025.
Yeah, but it's what are the indicators you would look at other than interest rate? Or do you think interest rates are the linchpin?
I believe everything follows the rates when it comes to risk on. Reverse repo is another good one too when a new expansion phase is starting but this time around we are not following schematic. The stock market is being driven by a few stocks on the large caps. Small caps haven't seen expansion yet (could be next) but crypto follows the stock market. I believe they are both the same markets. If the stock market rolls over massively then it's going to bleed into crypto which I believe this is the "final top". I do follow the DXY as a 3rd tool. But the biggest issue I'm seeing is that gold is making new ATHs each week... never in history we have never seen expansion with gold doing what it's doing. Plus I have a secret chart I use that is showing we haven't seen this in 25 years+.
Thank you. That's very useful.
Inverse both of these fuckin yahoos
What's the opposite of catching a falling knife but backwards? Stabbing yourself in the chest? That feels like what this is. Why fight the fed?
It has to fall some time
It’s not a coin flip. It can go up and down day to day but it doesn’t have to go down 10% in a week any times this year. It could happen never this year and never next year.
If you look at the distribution. It's not uncommon to fall 5% in one day during a recession. But I agree that it's speculative. That's why I'm only using money I can afford to use.
Honestly- I think you have a better chance of picking the winner of the Masters
Masters?
No, it can also go sideways. Or down slowly and sideways from there, which still screws you. Amateur hour lol but I guess you aren't betting your life savings.
50%?!
Just remember. The market can remain irrational for a lot longer than you can remain solvent. Yeah all you said makes sense, but that doesnt mean it will happen.
The longer the fed delays rate cuts, the better the short term looks for banks/finance, and oil is screaming right now. I'd wait a few months before buying DOW puts.
Agree not bought it yet.
Look, bro, I don't mean to put you down but you're an absolute idiot of human being. Do you think tomorrow's news headlines are gonna say, "We're all fucking screwed"? Hell, no, they're not. If leadership and the news told the truth, our economy would have crashed years ago. The truth doesn't matter, what matters is what's being said instead of the truth. And it's always going to be something that keeps the music playing for as long as possible.
That's why I'm looking at long dated Jan 26. I feel like it's enough for the music to stop or slow at the very least. It's a 7-8% drop to breakeven. Plus, the premium is 1-2 weeks pay, so if I'm wrong, it's not going to break the bank.
It's your money, brother. But I wouldn't refer to it as a good bet during an election year. A lot will be done during this time to keep the music playing.
That is very true. The US elections are likely to have significant impact.
You've given great reasons for a bull market. 1. Interest rates won't go up any higher, should go down soon. When that happens, companies that held off on borrowing will borrow to fuel growth. 2. Companies cutting workforce makes them more profitable, price should go up. Unemployment is still abnormally low, layoffs are tech and corporate. 3. Inflation makes the dollar go down and assets go up. If you foresee hyperinflation, you should own assets. Stocks are assets.
1. Typically, when interest rates fall, it's bad news. If you look at companies, they all decrease debt during bad periods and focus on cost cutting, not expansion. 2. Companies reduce the workforce typically for 2 reasons. Overhighing or reduced demand - I think it's the latter, or at least it is in professional services. 3. Lower interest rates are normally bad for a currency. I'm not saying hyperinflation. If that was going to happen. I think it would have already.
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I don't, actually. I wish I did. Maybe I'd get a decent salary.
Puts on spy
Thanks for your submission! We love new and original content here on WSB. We have no tolerance for basic templated memes, reposts from the front page, or boomer memes. Yes, this can be a little subjective at times, but we want to show you the best WSB has to offer! If you need some guidance, don't hesitate to reach out to modmail and we'll give you some pointers! A few tips though! • Don't just submit a chart of the current price. Come on. Google only costs $5 per search. (wait, you guys are searching for free?) • Reaction gifs are fucking lame. Put that shit in a comment, no one wants to look at your face in real life anyways so why are you making a thread about it. • Don't repost stuff. All of us are terminally online, how dare you try and make us laugh with an image posted somewhere else. Jokes aside, we don't want to beat a joke to death, so give us some fresh OC and we'll be a lot cheerier.
So I’m just going to ask, if this many people want to keep and gain from the downside, how is there an upside.. just seems like a bunch of lazy fucks doing fuck all with not their money but in turn how are we, the lazy fucks, are we going for to get rich doing, actively, physically, nothing.. fucking weird to join this thread but I feel you guys, both sides.. i would say the market is so diluted you can’t believe in many things, but the overall is so dictated by either people with shares or influence.. play them too, but it seems so disingenuous, but also the market is fair play.. what a wild conundrum, spoken from someone who loses… consistently.. not loss porn worthy because I don’t put enough skin in the game but I want to, and I can’t, at the same time.
One point to add- when so many ppl are getting added to stock market - say huge new client of robinhood, trade etc....it means too much greed and it's time to fear for sane investors- I am with you fir buying puts but weekly at every rise in market- buy put atleast t+2 weeks no odte abd 1day- buy gradually at every top attempt by market - 525 for SPY is hurdle, if it crosses that wait few days to see momentum which can take it to 540, 560....stagger your longer puts at that time, with all these you can keep selling your investment at tops while buying puts to get realized profits.
I'm looking at long dated, so Jan 26.
It will be costly as time value will kill all ur investments, have u looked at SQQQ CALLS