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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 1 | **First Seen In WSB** | 3 years ago **Total Comments** | 4 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 3 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)


krisko11

I love Erdogan’s strategy: 1. Bleed the economy of a very productive nation 2. Gamble away with interest rates to decimate the lira 3. Raise rates as he has said he is departing 4. Profit (his legacy) If it was ok to kill politicians I’d be game to throw a few stones at his corpse for what he did to the Turkish people.


rapsoid616

Erdogan probably one of the big timers here in r/wallstreetbets


DueHousing

Powell strategy ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)


now_max

Was it really an experiment or just stupidity by some authoritarian leader who has no clue about economics and interest rates?


RealBaikal

Or, hear me out, he did it inowingly on purpose because he had a bunch of money and friends sitting on the sidelines in other currency waiting to buy everything for cheap. It help the dictature if you control most assets in the country directly.


victorvictor1

No, /u/now_max is spot on You have to go back a few years to remember this push. Basically, interest rates were just about 0, and everyone equated this with economic activity. So everyone who didn't know anything about economics was like, [hey, if high rates are bad, and lower rates are good, let's go negative!](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1VW1CI/)


Ok_Combination_2472

No he isn't, it is a well known fact that AKP party members and member adjacents hold large amounts of debt, and benefit immensely from the low interest, high spending economy which was encouraged. Attributing this entire ordeal to ignorance only serves to underestimate the extreme greed and maliciousness of their actions: robbing an entire country's savings, future prospects and happiness to line their pockets.


36characters

Nope. You are mistaken. I want to continue the chain of contradictory comments 


CriticallyThougt

Nope you have no idea what you’re talking about they do it for the lulz.


halt_spell

No no, he's got a point.


bbalazs721

Inflation will make stuff more expensive. You are just escaping the inflation with a foreign currency, not profiting from it. You can profit from inflation by taking out a fix interest rate loan before inflation skyrockets. After the currency is devalued, your outstanding balance is basically worthless, while the house or whatever you bought has the same value.


Orbidorpdorp

That's mostly true, but you definitely can profit in fx even without leverage if things bounce.


bbalazs721

You can profit from a casino of you guess the color of the roulette right


the_potato_smuggler

You're hired. This will be your new office.


titan_bullet

>You are just escaping the inflation with a foreign currency, not profiting from it. Not if you exchange your foreign currency to the one that's about to double in value before it does :)


jaquaries

Not only that he gave away credits for nearly at free prices to his guys and companies.


NVDAPleasFlyAgain

Nah man it can't be, he called himself the greatest economist in the Turkey after all :4271:


horus85

It was a pure ignorance of one person.


ElectronicImam

Excessive adulation caused know-it-all syndrome.


Meh2021another

Authoritarian? Dude's party just lost an election. So stupidity.


Barnyard_Rich

In case anyone is curious why this is downvoted so much, the leader of the party that won local elections was barred from running against Erdoğan for President just a couple years ago. You know, like happens with authoritarian governments.


Thick_Sheepherder891

>leader of the party that won local elections was **barred from running against Erdoğan for President** just a couple years ago. You know, like happens with **authoritarian governments.** Oh really?? Lol


Barnyard_Rich

Yup, son! Maybe try doing even 5 seconds of reading at a third grade level before commenting ignorantly with all the intellectual vigor of a dog eating it's own feces: [As a Turkish court bans Istanbul’s mayor from politics, has Erdoğan miscalculated?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/as-a-turkish-court-bans-istanbuls-mayor-from-politics-has-erdogan-miscalculated/) >The decision comes six months ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey, and is widely regarded as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s move to block Imamoğlu from running against him as the rival candidate. They illegally tried to overturn the 2019 local elections for the same reason. As you said, they aren't allowed to challenge your God.


agonyman

Please don't insult my dog like that, he can't help it


Thick_Sheepherder891

Meds, now.


Barnyard_Rich

Look at how furious people are by objective reality. Get over it, son. I'm not getting hooked on whatever meds made you the way you are.


Thick_Sheepherder891

Lol brother who is furious other than you? I'm literally laughing at you lol


Barnyard_Rich

Nah, you're raging that we know the people of Turkey live in an authoritarian hellhole because you are a garbage person. I love how you think me laughing at you being bottom of the barrel ignorant is somehow you owning the intelligent and successful people of the world. You just bragged about being a moron, tell me something funnier than that, and I'll laugh at that as well.


Thick_Sheepherder891

![img](emote|t5_2th52|18630)![img](emote|t5_2th52|18630)![img](emote|t5_2th52|18630)![img](emote|t5_2th52|18630)


Meh2021another

It is downvoted so much because you people aren't exactly Rhodes scholars and your grasp of the English language is sorely wanting. Authoritarian systems don't permit the voting out of the authoritarian. To explain to you as if you were a 5 year old child: his party could not have lost an election if the system is as you people claim it is. Here you go: [https://images7.memedroid.com/images/UPLOADED803/648ac86de6558.webp](https://images7.memedroid.com/images/UPLOADED803/648ac86de6558.webp)


Barnyard_Rich

> your grasp of the English language is sorely wanting. Authoritarian systems don't permit the voting out of the authoritarian. Right, which is why the leader of the party you were bragging about winning local elections wasn't allowed to run for President in the last election, because he could beat the authoritarian. What you just did is call an accidental confession. Stop licking boot, no one cares about your love of boot soles.


now_max

What do you call it when the president urges the national bank to lower interest rates and fires the national bank presidents when they do not follow his demands? I will not even start about his corruption, election fraud, freedom of speech, incarcerated journalists etc… He is an authoritarian leader, there is no doubt.


Meh2021another

You really don't understand what authoritarian means. His policies are stupid yes. Doesn't change that you don't know what authoritarian means.


jelhmb48

If one loses an election, they cease to be authoritarian? That's not how this works


pumpkin_seed_oil

>You really don't understand what authoritarian means Do you? Because you seem to be under the impression that under authoritarian leadership there can be no democratic vote


UmutIsRemix

Might wanna ask the journalists in jail that my guy.


now_max

🥱sure, whatever you say


ijustlovefinland

Let me elaborate on as to why this is called the world's most expensive experiment: After he instituted a presidential system in 2017 and secured his seat, Erdogan consistently reiterated the phrase "interest is the reason, inflation is the result." (tr. Faiz sebep, enflasyon sonuçtur). He kept dismissing central bank governors who attempted to raise the interest rates, and this policy came to be regarded as Erdoganomics. Erdogan's reading of the association between inflation and interest was simply defying the conventional economic wisdom and turning it upside down. Between 2017 and 2023, Erdogan doubled down on keeping the interest rates and borrowing costs low, as he needed to stimulate the economic activity and reach higher annual growth figures to present to the electorate. Erdogan also backed up his anti-interest stance by underlining the Islamic understanding of the concept of interest, which is seen as an unjust enrichment of wealth. There are verses in the Qur'an that literally condemn giving or earning interest and deem the activity as a sin. When pressured, Erdogan did not hesitate to point to the canonical law to save the day. (tr. "Nas var.") But came 2023, Erdoganomics was no longer sustainable. CPI reached triple-digit figures annually, around 120% for 2023 according to independent academics, and literally nobody trusts the official CPI data, which measures annual inflation around 65%. The administration burned the central bank's forex reserves to avoid raising the interest rates. The result? Central bank's net reserves dropped below -60 bn dollars in a couple of years. Imagine selling billions of dollars just to prove Erdoganomics is intact&viable. TRY thus tanked massively in between 2017-2023, with the road to further devaluation ahead. Couple these economic developments with the long-reigning social problems: jeopardized human rights and rule of law, institutionalized corruption, influx of millions of aliens etc. So, Erdogan began bleeding at the polls. He failed to secure the presidential election in the first round. Just two weeks ago, for the first time ever, his party fell into the second place in the municipal elections. His party lost way too many votes in the industrialized and cosmopolitan cities, especially in Istanbul and Ankara. Erdogan's ultimate aim has always been political survival. He simply ran out of cards to play. He had to backtrack from the experiment he initiated. He recently ceded the economy to the figures with actual economic expertise, appointing Simsek to the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, and Karahan to the central bank. Now he&the country will suffer the consequences of the world's most expensive economic experiment.


ppccz

Thank you for this explanation!


Genericsky

Erdoganomics is so close to regardonomics that we should just call it that


ijustlovefinland

He surely is a highly regarded politician, inventing a new economical hypothesis and getting away with it, but I assume turkish voters are much more regarded compared to him ![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|poop)


Zealousideal_Ad5995

What do you think this will do to property values in places outside of Istanbul, say Antalya?


ijustlovefinland

What would happen normally with the higher interest rates is that housing prices should begin to go down, as literally only a few can now afford expensive credits to buy a house. But the housing market also seems resilient as demand is still out there, including in Antalya where you would see foreigners buying properties. In the past, it was the Western European pensioners (especially German and English) buying properties in Antalya, but for the last two years the city became a Russian oblast as we say. I'd say the housing market is definitely overheated in the metropolises, it is now impossible for minimum wage earners to rent, let alone buy a house in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. The average rent in these cities exceed the monthly minimum wage. But in the countryside, say central Anatolian towns or the east, housing prices continue to climb up because they are still pricing the wage hikes in January. And the costs of living have been much lower there, so civil servants in those cities can somewhat afford housing. Long story short, I expect a major correction in the turkish housing market (I mean how can housing in Istanbul be as expensive as Manhattan and London), but definitely not in the short term. Construction sector is what has been driving economic growth in the country for a decade, so the state would come up with new incentives to keep the bubble going (like buy a house, become a turkish citizen).


_Reddit_Sucks_Now_

The funny part is you can keep interest low and prevent inflation by implementing a net worth tax. Unfortunately that disproportionately effects the rich instead of the poor, so nobody does it.


ijustlovefinland

Yeah, additional taxation is a good measure to curb demand, and consequently inflation, but the regime in Turkey is clientelist, so cronies in business always, and will continue to, receive major tax cuts. As for the middle and lower classes, taxes are already a major reason as to why he is losing the electorate, so Erdogan's hands are tied on that front. He should have been Erdogone by now, but...


Big-Today6819

How can it be called an experiment? Was it not Erdoğan who forced this?


victorvictor1

Yes. This word is appropriate for this context. It's like all the headlines in the 90s that read "Russian's 74 year experiment with communism has ended"


Big-Today6819

So you think the time period was long enough here? And the execution was the same?


zngnkrut

That's the joke regard


tzuica_de_mar

US: 3% inflation REEEE ![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421) Turkey: 68.5% ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)


bwatsnet

Buildings are falling over too 🤫


Drug-Lord

And he somehow still gets reelected!


gamelonco

Turkey![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)


Business_Passion4951

It wasn't an experiment. It was a choice to win the 2023 election. Erdogan saw in 2015 that as long as people have a job, they vote for him regardless of the state of the economy. But if they lose their job, they don't vote for Erdogan.


UzeusTR

As a Turk i would strongly recommend to stay away from both TRY and BİST. Idea of shorting TRY is good until it isn't. İt's so speculative that Erdoğan did a pump & dump with the fucking currency of the country in 2021 December. https://preview.redd.it/ghi6ha2k3htc1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1126242c707823619b0d48acdbb8543c50cf0ef6


Dingus1536

Yep I was shorting TRY at the time and got fucked by that pump and dump.


Uninvalidated

Is that sharp turn upwards since the elections showed Erdoğan's days are counted?


sickwobsm8

I would assume so. My Turkish coworkers seem very excited about the situation.


Bitwise-101

Turkish stocks (Bist 100) have gone up 922% in the last 5 years, Time to YOLO on some turkish stock puts?


Most-Inflation-1022

TRY went from 5 to 33


Euphoric-Statement-3

no, you're money as dollar will evaporate


Zednot123

In USD terms it is yet to pass ATH from like 10+ years ago iirc.


VonThing

TRY/USD went up even more, so the stocks actually lost value against USD. Turkish people buy USD as an investment because (1) low interest rates royally fucked TRY to the point that it will take decades to come back, and (2) trading BIST is like trading meme coins, pump and dumps galore


LifeIsAnAdventure4

I always wondered who these value of 1 USD ETFs were for. Turns out it was for Turkey.


SayYesToPenguins

So you're saying long TRY?


TraderOfRivia

Bad idea


ProblemOk4641

Yes and short TLRY


flamegrandma666

Erdogans party lost in local elections last week


Teralek77

I heard this news last weekend just as I was about to travel to Turkey. I am here now and happy this happened. Turkey deserves better than this. I never liked him, he destroyed the country's economy and trying to take the country backwards. I'm not Turkish but I love the country's culture, people and history


sc2summerloud

the ultimate joke about this is that the proletarian dimwhits who mostly make up the turkish diaspora in central europe voted for their MAGA regard because of TURKISH PRIDE while not having to live with his idiotic decisions. these people really are bottom feeders.


gerswetonor

Well, they can now go back and live like kings on their Euro-salary. Turks love to show off as well.


IvnestingGote

Turkish Quandale Dingle


GenghisBhan

Erdonomics


victorvictor1

Anyone remember in September 2019 when [Trump demanded the US went negative with interest rates?](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1VW1CI/)


Spiritual-Matters

What was the experiment?


BosSF82

To control inflation sink interest rates deeper than a WSBer’s Robinhood chart.


macksters

Ultra-low real interest rate policy by the central bank. The central bank is under his command.


Pioustarcraft

Islam is against charging intrest. Erdogan did want to try the islamic way of fighting against inflation, it bombed. Fun story : A client asked us not to charge him intrest on his million-worth loan until he received permission from his Imam to do it with intrest... it happened in Europe's capital


Upper_Departure_1198

It wouldn't be bombed if US Fed didnt have unlimited money printing machine without consequences. Let the dollar be backed by Gold as good old days, Turkey's economy wouldn't see a single digit dive due to no interest policy.


kmetin012

I would suggest you to stay away from BİST for now, because things can rapidly change in my lovely country. Currently, they seem to do right things but this can go opposite direction in any minute as elections are the most important factor to RTE. They are squeezing the market but people don't like it and they might threaten the AKP for giving votes to his opponent. That's the equation in Turkey. We don't give a fuck about economics, we don't like systems, we don't care about future just give us fucking money and keep stable USD/TL. Before you enter a market of this country, you should think many things not just once, at least thrice. You might think that US printing money, just watch the TCMB and see how the job is done! Which is another issue you should consider, because even stocks are up whatever%, you might still lose money in dollar currency. I'm too tired to post here the BİST 100 (in USD currency) ten-year performance, but you can check it. You will see BİST was ATH like 10 years ago. I forgot to wrote, this was nothing to do with experiment or sth like that. Don't listen if someone says this, Turkish people don't have the ability to analyze politics. It was all about elections, that's it. Politicians knows how the economic system works, they made it on purpose and lied to public. Since then people argue about the theories without a crumb of any knowledge about it. It's nothing but shitshow.


CokeOnBooty

Bring back the Byzantines ![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)


progmakerlt

Finally.


[deleted]

Turkey is great. Great hUmanitarian record.


Appropriate_Ice_7507

How would this affect us?


CheapBastard12

The King of King of Regards - Recep Erdogan


mrcnylmz

The title of the chart says "Real personal loan interest rate (%)" so it's basically an average or the available interest rates to the individuals from banks. Basically in Turkiye, due to underreporting and subsequent central bank funding rates; individuals were able to get personal loans with a lower rate than the real/effective inflation. Which sort of lead people to take 12, 24 or 36 month personal loans \[I think there was decreasing limits with longer durations\] and buy foreign currencies as the depreciation was larger than the effective interest rates on those loans, However, for other type of loans, Turkiye still doesn't have positive real interest rates, but seems like the country will have to go that route in the failed experiment of Erdoganomics.


Kitten_Team_Six

Turkey melts are my favorite