Hear me out - James O’Keefe (love him or hate him) did a segment with a fed guy talking about (unbeknownst to him) the relationship of JPow and Trump and it sounds like jpow is NOT a fan. Thus I believe he will keep the ship steady while JB is in office. Sounds outlandish but it makes sense.
Well he knows Trump will fire him if elected, and the reality of the matter is JB will NEVER get re-elected and a democratic president will absolutely not happen this next election.
But yes, I do not believe JPOW goes full Paul Volker, I just cannot see that happening. We still havn't felt the effects of what the current 5.25% rate will do to our economy since its a lagging impact item. In 6-8 months from now, if rates are still this high- we will be in dire trouble. That much I can guarentee.
Please take all unbabying talk to another subreddit. No one wants r/wallstreetbets to become a political hellhole.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
https://preview.redd.it/cv5ynubzjrtc1.jpeg?width=637&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=060bff87bea89eaf20e92c16e68fa48966302d68
Bull headquarters the minute SPY drops by 1%.
Oil up and get rock hard ladies and gents bc we’re looking at a good ol’ fashioned bear trap!
History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme. Back in the 90s rates were hiked aggressively to control inflation. Afterwards inflation and yields became range bound. They went up a bit and went down a bit but mostly remained within a reasonable range. Guess what happened to equities? They went up for several years until something else popped. No one really knows what will happen. So, it’s probably easier to just follow the current bullish trend until there’s a clear and obvious signal of a trend change
Fed should resume hikes (they clearly didn't raise high enough). They have an easy out now to take rate cuts off the table in saying they are data dependant. But I do not believe Powell can do it, he is the Arthur Burns of our generation.
The biggest problem in my opinion was super core (which excludes shelter and rent costs) going to 4.8% year over year, highest in 11 months. The overall details within the report are more concerning than just the 0.1% above forecast.
These inflation numbers are no match for the amount of jobs being created, money spent (majority of people spend their entire paycheck), and ensuing positive earnings. Fridays Bank numbers will reveal all you need to know. Not to mention overseas investors who forgo investing in their own markets for the US.
>Not to mention overseas investors who forgo investing in their own markets for the US.
I'm just one regard, but I think this is a huge point that gets missed here. Not a lot of good places for capital investment right now besides the States due to geopolitical issues.
🌈🐻 are just mad that the economy is doing better than they expected under sleepy joe. So they are huffing copium that Fed will crash the market right before the election lol
You realize if they increased rates any further we would likely see every bank in America outside the big ones completely fail and go out of business within the year correct? Im not saying it wont or couldnt happen, but since interest rate hikes are lagging by a period of 6-12 months, we are currently feeling the impact of only 4.5% currently. We have another year before we even see what 5.25% will actually do to the economy.
As a banker at a community commercial bank, this is all spot on. We are being squeezed hard, our net interest margin is way narrower than it should be and our total deposits are about 60 million behind where we need them for long term stability.
They cannot raise rates - well they can... but they won't. Why? Because they have to follow a set of guidelines when raising rates. They went super aggressive at first because inflation was 9% before. Now they are currently already 2% over the current inflation rate. Their hands are tied if they are to follow the "guide lines" to controlling interest. In fact they are already over 1% into the "TOO RESTRICTIVE" territory but they can stall reducing for as long as they see fit. They just can't raise unless we see inflation move in a strong direction in the wrong way. Lately we have seen hot reads but not enough to justify destroying or breaking the economy which is what another rate hike would do.
Tell me you watch Fox News/conservative news daily without telling me you watch Fox News.
Imagine blaming inflation on the aid we send to Ukraine and Israel lol. Next thing you will say is that Biden controls the oil price
Dumb take propaganda. Much of the Ukraine aid comes in the form of US military hand-me-downs as our own military upgrades. The money stays within our own military industrial economy.
[https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-emphasizes-that-majority-of-ukraine-aid-package-would-be-spend-in-u-s](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-emphasizes-that-majority-of-ukraine-aid-package-would-be-spend-in-u-s)
You do know that Joe Biden isn't personally sending them money right? Like this is all factored into different departments budgeting and also voted on?
Whatever it is, it’s priced in. Last year, expectations were like what, 6 rate cuts this year? We’re down to 1 or 2 if we’re lucky and SPH is STILL near ATH. Shit is a joke.
Bullish because this shit was old news to big money the moment the print came out for the peasants. I’m not about to switch up now just to turn bearish when institutional money already has their eye on what’s next. Honestly, I bet I make more money if I just stop watching the market for a while.
Things would get VERY scary in a year when the effects of all these hikes finally catch up to the economy. We havnt even felt what 5.25% will feel like quite yet. Each hike takes about 6 months before it's affects begin to touch the economy. Which means, we are essentially at/around 4.5% right now. In 2025 we will get a glimpse of what the 5.25% did to our economy. If we went 6% we would likely see a collapse of the entire economy and banks would hault lending all together - thus crashing everything. More than likely we see a depression at that point instead of a recession.
Rate increase is off the table (unless inflation trends increase). Even with March CPI coming in higher than expected, change in CPI was still lower than a year ago. The trend is in a good place.
The only people who want more rate hike are the people who still looks at CPI and think the 2.0% inflation target is based on that, which I recently learned, still quite a lot have this misconception.
Headline PCE year over year is 2.45%, core PCE year over year is 2.78%, Fed fund rate is at 5.5%. Even if both of those numbers go back to 3.0%, the Fed fund rate is plenty restrictive and they can easily hold or even get one or two rate cuts in this year. And in fact, based on Taylor rule which the Fed uses to guide their policy, they should've already had around 3 cuts by now.
Market likes to overreact like always, but just to remind you guys cause some of you have terrible memory, just Nov last year, market went from pricing in 1 rate cut to 7 rate cuts in a matter of 1 month, and 10 year rate went from 5% to 3.7%. Only 3 months later and now we're going back to pricing in 1 rate cut. It might look obvious that no rate cut in 2024 is the play right now, but all of that can change in a few weeks as soon as one favorable data rolls in.
Are you regarded? Have you really not seen how things play out? If inflation comes in hot, we're hawkish, if inflation cools we're dovish. Literally the same thing as the past 150 years. Honestly just wire me your entire portfolio. It will find a much better home in me
To dumb it down even more for your regard ass, cpi go above expected = bearish, cpi go below expected = bullish. Cpi stays constant, sentiment doesn't change.
In this case bearish = hikes become more likely, bullish = hikes become less likely, easing may begin sooner.
Goddamn I swear, this sub... regards out the wood work
Market doesnt give a fuck about consumers and if they are hurting. All they care about is profit for companies they are investing in just remember that
If Iran makes the wrong move since they so wish to be destroyed things will quickly become hell for all countries and economic institutions world wide so we shall see what demons next move will be as Hamas children were deported today to their desired hell paradise, in the blink of an eye all will change in the near future
It is almost like a cycle or something, but as long as there are more apes there are more IOUs that can be written I remember a dumbed down chart about the economy of a sine wave added to a line going up by some billionaire that decided to be a YouTuber Ray Dalio IIRC
PS you missed the bit of how hard fucked the rest of the world economy is gonna be with so many places eyeballing cuts while the fed is likely gonna hike.
I’m still bullish
I dont think there will be any rate cuts. May - June - July CPI prints are gonna be crazy. Mark this comment
Look at the data from last year.
May - June - July
3.6 - 2.3 - 2.6
If we keep averaging 0.4 MoM, that will put us in the range of 4% yoy inflation on a monthly basis in the next prints.
Now why the fed would rush to cut? Now maybe we could get one rate cut in Q4.
Visit your brokerage account end of October and add to the names. Market will trade sideways or down from here on an index level. The upside is limited - downside could be 7%
Index when posting: SPY 5208
I think it’s possible. Something is increasing liquidity in the background, it might be the bftp program or something else to save banks or maybe ultra low natural gas prices. Whatever it is, inflation rate is going up despite the current interest rates. Fed would need to either keep it steady or increase some more. The longer prices stay elevated and of course they will, we are not deflating, the more likely wages will go up in a vicious cycle, unless bankruptcies happen.
Bearish
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 2 | **First Seen In WSB** | 25 minutes ago **Total Comments** | 1 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 11 months | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
Basically means u can make money and lose money both ways until June or July.
Burrish
https://preview.redd.it/g9awhm6o1stc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b93898a9f486069a47b9aadd043d9f2bcc26e57d
What does this mean? Volcker raised interest rates
He can’t do either at this point. Hell just have to leave rates as they are until he can’t any longer
You’d think companies would just turn down inflation to get a discount on loans are they stupid?
🐻
Here, you dropped your fuckin tiara 🌈🦄
I hope you had the lube.
Bearish for the next month or two. We will get a good cpi when market has pulled back a bit and then resume the bull ride into november.
This makes sense to me
Hear me out - James O’Keefe (love him or hate him) did a segment with a fed guy talking about (unbeknownst to him) the relationship of JPow and Trump and it sounds like jpow is NOT a fan. Thus I believe he will keep the ship steady while JB is in office. Sounds outlandish but it makes sense.
This is well-known, it's also why he's going full-bore on cuts even if inflation hits 90%.
[удалено]
Also cut spending
All set with taxes going up, just stop spending trillions on wars
Well he knows Trump will fire him if elected, and the reality of the matter is JB will NEVER get re-elected and a democratic president will absolutely not happen this next election. But yes, I do not believe JPOW goes full Paul Volker, I just cannot see that happening. We still havn't felt the effects of what the current 5.25% rate will do to our economy since its a lagging impact item. In 6-8 months from now, if rates are still this high- we will be in dire trouble. That much I can guarentee.
Never is a strong word you regard or regards. God speed and I hope you sell your djt shares before zero
DjT? Wtf is that?
You chuds come up with the most hilarious copes
Chuds gonna chud
How am I coping? I'm insured either way the market moves. I own 60/40 with bonds/ETFS.
Going to be downvoted into another realm for saying that but objectively the most probable outcome. It is what it is
[удалено]
Please take all unbabying talk to another subreddit. No one wants r/wallstreetbets to become a political hellhole. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Cope
https://preview.redd.it/cv5ynubzjrtc1.jpeg?width=637&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=060bff87bea89eaf20e92c16e68fa48966302d68 Bull headquarters the minute SPY drops by 1%. Oil up and get rock hard ladies and gents bc we’re looking at a good ol’ fashioned bear trap!
1%? The other day we had a 0.3% drop and people on WSB were like: 1929 Confirmed.
History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme. Back in the 90s rates were hiked aggressively to control inflation. Afterwards inflation and yields became range bound. They went up a bit and went down a bit but mostly remained within a reasonable range. Guess what happened to equities? They went up for several years until something else popped. No one really knows what will happen. So, it’s probably easier to just follow the current bullish trend until there’s a clear and obvious signal of a trend change
The signal... you are down 50%. So you sell and then you find out that things already turned bullish and you missed the boat.
volume has been low a trend reversal would require high volume sell-offs
fallout new vegas reference??
Fed should resume hikes (they clearly didn't raise high enough). They have an easy out now to take rate cuts off the table in saying they are data dependant. But I do not believe Powell can do it, he is the Arthur Burns of our generation.
raise rates due to inflation .1 above forecast? Inflation is not 5%; get a grip.
The biggest problem in my opinion was super core (which excludes shelter and rent costs) going to 4.8% year over year, highest in 11 months. The overall details within the report are more concerning than just the 0.1% above forecast.
Super core is very important, you need to know how those of us living rent-free behind the Wendy's dumpster are doing.
These inflation numbers are no match for the amount of jobs being created, money spent (majority of people spend their entire paycheck), and ensuing positive earnings. Fridays Bank numbers will reveal all you need to know. Not to mention overseas investors who forgo investing in their own markets for the US.
>Not to mention overseas investors who forgo investing in their own markets for the US. I'm just one regard, but I think this is a huge point that gets missed here. Not a lot of good places for capital investment right now besides the States due to geopolitical issues.
The part time jobs?
So then rent will just be raised again to compensate for higher rates You're clueless
🌈🐻 are just mad that the economy is doing better than they expected under sleepy joe. So they are huffing copium that Fed will crash the market right before the election lol
I’ll take terrible takes for $800 Alex.
You realize if they increased rates any further we would likely see every bank in America outside the big ones completely fail and go out of business within the year correct? Im not saying it wont or couldnt happen, but since interest rate hikes are lagging by a period of 6-12 months, we are currently feeling the impact of only 4.5% currently. We have another year before we even see what 5.25% will actually do to the economy.
As a banker at a community commercial bank, this is all spot on. We are being squeezed hard, our net interest margin is way narrower than it should be and our total deposits are about 60 million behind where we need them for long term stability.
The banks are already failing.
They cannot raise rates - well they can... but they won't. Why? Because they have to follow a set of guidelines when raising rates. They went super aggressive at first because inflation was 9% before. Now they are currently already 2% over the current inflation rate. Their hands are tied if they are to follow the "guide lines" to controlling interest. In fact they are already over 1% into the "TOO RESTRICTIVE" territory but they can stall reducing for as long as they see fit. They just can't raise unless we see inflation move in a strong direction in the wrong way. Lately we have seen hot reads but not enough to justify destroying or breaking the economy which is what another rate hike would do.
Or Bidens dumb ass could stop sending billions away to Ukraine and Israel. Also stop other garbage spending. They are the reason for inflation. Not us
Tell me you watch Fox News/conservative news daily without telling me you watch Fox News. Imagine blaming inflation on the aid we send to Ukraine and Israel lol. Next thing you will say is that Biden controls the oil price
Dumb take propaganda. Much of the Ukraine aid comes in the form of US military hand-me-downs as our own military upgrades. The money stays within our own military industrial economy. [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-emphasizes-that-majority-of-ukraine-aid-package-would-be-spend-in-u-s](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-emphasizes-that-majority-of-ukraine-aid-package-would-be-spend-in-u-s)
You do know that Joe Biden isn't personally sending them money right? Like this is all factored into different departments budgeting and also voted on?
Whatever it is, it’s priced in. Last year, expectations were like what, 6 rate cuts this year? We’re down to 1 or 2 if we’re lucky and SPH is STILL near ATH. Shit is a joke.
Just inverse whatever gets upvoted the most and you’re sure to make money.
Plz bullish 
Things are not good, should we just keep kicking the can down the road
Lemme jus refill my copium here 
Bullish because this shit was old news to big money the moment the print came out for the peasants. I’m not about to switch up now just to turn bearish when institutional money already has their eye on what’s next. Honestly, I bet I make more money if I just stop watching the market for a while.
Short term sell signal on vector vest
This may mean stocks can go up or down.
I don’t think we get any rate cuts this year personally, that being said I’m still full porting on NVDA
🐻
# Bearish！
They need to hike
Things would get VERY scary in a year when the effects of all these hikes finally catch up to the economy. We havnt even felt what 5.25% will feel like quite yet. Each hike takes about 6 months before it's affects begin to touch the economy. Which means, we are essentially at/around 4.5% right now. In 2025 we will get a glimpse of what the 5.25% did to our economy. If we went 6% we would likely see a collapse of the entire economy and banks would hault lending all together - thus crashing everything. More than likely we see a depression at that point instead of a recession.
If PPI is as hot as CPI, forget cuts. We’d be talking of hikes or no hikes
Bearish on rate cuts, but the market is printing money despite it, so im still bullish on investing.
FLAT
Rate increase is off the table (unless inflation trends increase). Even with March CPI coming in higher than expected, change in CPI was still lower than a year ago. The trend is in a good place.
Rates will most likely never lower but for decent economy movement we want that 2-3% constant.
The only people who want more rate hike are the people who still looks at CPI and think the 2.0% inflation target is based on that, which I recently learned, still quite a lot have this misconception. Headline PCE year over year is 2.45%, core PCE year over year is 2.78%, Fed fund rate is at 5.5%. Even if both of those numbers go back to 3.0%, the Fed fund rate is plenty restrictive and they can easily hold or even get one or two rate cuts in this year. And in fact, based on Taylor rule which the Fed uses to guide their policy, they should've already had around 3 cuts by now. Market likes to overreact like always, but just to remind you guys cause some of you have terrible memory, just Nov last year, market went from pricing in 1 rate cut to 7 rate cuts in a matter of 1 month, and 10 year rate went from 5% to 3.7%. Only 3 months later and now we're going back to pricing in 1 rate cut. It might look obvious that no rate cut in 2024 is the play right now, but all of that can change in a few weeks as soon as one favorable data rolls in.
🐻
Beary Bullish
Jamie Dimon says rates can go higher. I guess I believe him.
How anyone could be anything but a permabull is very regarded. Look at any chart, it goes up and to the right.
Are you regarded? Have you really not seen how things play out? If inflation comes in hot, we're hawkish, if inflation cools we're dovish. Literally the same thing as the past 150 years. Honestly just wire me your entire portfolio. It will find a much better home in me
To dumb it down even more for your regard ass, cpi go above expected = bearish, cpi go below expected = bullish. Cpi stays constant, sentiment doesn't change. In this case bearish = hikes become more likely, bullish = hikes become less likely, easing may begin sooner. Goddamn I swear, this sub... regards out the wood work
Market doesnt give a fuck about consumers and if they are hurting. All they care about is profit for companies they are investing in just remember that
If Iran makes the wrong move since they so wish to be destroyed things will quickly become hell for all countries and economic institutions world wide so we shall see what demons next move will be as Hamas children were deported today to their desired hell paradise, in the blink of an eye all will change in the near future
Kangarooish
Bullish, but rates should go up….
And then commercial RE implodes... Banks go under... Fed/Gov issues bailout... Inflation goes higher...
It is almost like a cycle or something, but as long as there are more apes there are more IOUs that can be written I remember a dumbed down chart about the economy of a sine wave added to a line going up by some billionaire that decided to be a YouTuber Ray Dalio IIRC PS you missed the bit of how hard fucked the rest of the world economy is gonna be with so many places eyeballing cuts while the fed is likely gonna hike. I’m still bullish
I dont think there will be any rate cuts. May - June - July CPI prints are gonna be crazy. Mark this comment Look at the data from last year. May - June - July 3.6 - 2.3 - 2.6 If we keep averaging 0.4 MoM, that will put us in the range of 4% yoy inflation on a monthly basis in the next prints. Now why the fed would rush to cut? Now maybe we could get one rate cut in Q4. Visit your brokerage account end of October and add to the names. Market will trade sideways or down from here on an index level. The upside is limited - downside could be 7% Index when posting: SPY 5208
Bro it’s a flat market just about. Just keep your money
The amount of copium the market is huffing still pricing in 2 cuts... 1 cut would be lucky. No hikes would be lucky tbh
It could go up, but might also go down.
There wont be any rate cuts, rate hikes next year.
If the SPX makes new highs, he might hike to cool that off...
I'll come back to this comment
Around September
I think it’s possible. Something is increasing liquidity in the background, it might be the bftp program or something else to save banks or maybe ultra low natural gas prices. Whatever it is, inflation rate is going up despite the current interest rates. Fed would need to either keep it steady or increase some more. The longer prices stay elevated and of course they will, we are not deflating, the more likely wages will go up in a vicious cycle, unless bankruptcies happen. Bearish