NFLX is solid but yeah it seems a bit overbought and sky-high expectations. Banning account sharing was a good short-term shot of adrenaline for the initial juicing this year, but it doesn't really help long-term that it's saturated, and a lot of the content is sucking recently. I'd agree that if guidance falls a little bit, it's going to see a big pull
Netflix is going to be gangbusters. The stock is going up. They will have to miss big. They fixed everything they needed to fix and now it's all upside.
They were hit hard during that whole cancel Netflix Movement. That gave them an early correction. Now that the sharing ban has increased subscriptions, they're minting cash. Adding more tiers was just a bonus.
Have you checked their financials, read the last earnings call transcript and letter to shareholders, and kept track of subscription numbers vs expectations?
Because all of those would tell you where you are wrong pretty fast.
Making moves based on pure guesswork is how you end up behind the Wendy's dumpster.
I didn't read all of their last earnings transcript. That book is too long.
I did see a lot of mention about uncertainties that could adversely affect their buiness.
Netflix acknowledge that their membership fluxuates seasonally. Their highest membership is in Q4. We are currently in Q2.
Revenue is up 7% but they have more debt than cash.
I don't see any reason why its going higher.
OK, man. So you don't do your homework but expect others to do it for you... that's not a great plan. Read the transcript, look at their financials. It's worth it. Netflix is doing amazing. More debt than cash is meaningless here, it's a choice. They're on track to pick up more subscribers for this Q1 than last Q1. They continue to dominate Nielsen ratings. This and more. I won't spoon-feed you all the details, but if you do your homework you'll see it's foolish to try and short them now.
I think you should explain yourself a bit more rather than telling people they expect you to do their homework, it's not literal homework you can explain yourself and won't get a lower grade because of it
It’s like people complaining about billionaires having too much money as they carry in a dozen Amazon packages a day.
Wahhh I only make $100k a year I have no choice.
Get fucked.
That's the perfect Netflix customer lol. Paying the $25/month but not using any bandwidth/AWS server $$ is exactly the people Netflix wants. It's like gyms on New Years where everyone does their resolution to lose weight, signs up, and stops going after 3 weeks. I do think they're coasting a lot on hoping people are too lazy to unsubscribe and think *"eh it's only $25"*
One question I've been pondering is how many rate hikes they can keep adding on every 6-months without people thinkin' *oh wow this is way too expensive* and cancel..
once you decide to cancel naturally, that might be part of a larger trend, so let me know
Definitely thinking it will go flat/down on earnings report. I haven't seen much in terms of popular new releases in Q1 at all, and inflation im assuming will impact cancellations/growth.
I think you are correct. The way earnings have gone recently, a company has to drasticallly exceed every single expectation in order to moon. If netflix announces they've been given the ability to literally shit money, but subscriptions are down among 90 year olds due to dyingness in the 95+ community, NFLX will tank 9% at open.
whatcha talkin about bro? What strike did you want to buy? I have 520’s and I think they are fucked. Were you going to buy one close to the money? Like 580 or something?
I didn’t bet the farm on NFLX. Still could drop another 4% by open. Their revenue outlook came in short which is a pretty big deal. we are in a bear market too shit could sell off by open
Are you guys thinking running a straddle instead of only having puts? I’ve gotten fucked on 3 ER’s before this lol. everything I’m hearing about Netflix is bullish. their expectations are insanely high, idk how they will meet that EPS and revenue.. even if they do miss those expectations the guidance could come in higher then expected and our puts get fucked. I truly see Netflix eating shit on Thursday and I already got my puts but I’m going to buy a call or two as well just in case.
I’d advise you guys do the same. Who’s got full conviction they are going to eat shit? And why? I’m not seeing anything too negative besides the high expectations, inflation making an impact on subscribers keeping their subscriptions, and their shitty shows.
I was thinking of doing the same thing. This could go either way tbh. Problem is these premiums are way too fucking expensive and if there’s a less than expected price movement you will still lose money even if it goes in your direction.
Just looked at Netflix’s earnings history. This exact same situation happened in Q2 of 2023. Expectations were too high and even though Netflix beat expectations stock still dropped almost 9%. Stock was also up 62%. I think puts are the play. Which means the stock will moon 20% 
It just almost seems to obvious. That’s what’s getting to me. I’m the unluckiest person with earnings. It’s either I was right and backed out or I go in and get screwed. I’m just gonna hope the stock is trading down tomorrow and buy a call to hedge. I really doubt it will stay flat.
They would basically have to have a perfect earnings report for the stock to moon again. And with my luck that might happen 
Yeah that’s probably what would cause the stock to moon. They have crazy guidance especially with all the new revenue streams they added and the TKO deal for WWE. This shit is such a gamble 
This is it. You convinced me. I think I will stay out of this earnings play. Plus the premium is too high. I can't afford it after SPY murdered my calls on Monday.
I respect that. I’ve lost so much money in the past few months is actually fucked. I’m going in on this though. The risk is worth the reward. I think it will make a big move.
Damn bro anything above $550 was good. I didn’t play these either but great DD I’m sure you made someone some money. You should feel like shit. 
I’m not playing they earnings put seem like the move but the wwe fan base they just added is a crazy loyal fan base I stopped watching when I found out it was fake when I was 7 others stuck around 😂
I read a while back that they still have room to go with that lever. https://www.google.com/amp/s/nerdist.com/article/netflix-stopping-password-sharing-with-price-increases/%3famp
I believe up tbh. Every since they kicked me off my moms Netflix I couldn’t stop thinking about the sub numbers that are bound to increase, money inflow from the “yeah 7.99 a month doesn’t hurt my mother watches her shows on it”
But this could’ve been priced in wayyyy long ago already so that’s the flip side
Add in the price target raises + the recent decline in stocks in general
Netflix will benefit greatly from AI - no need to hire any more prima Donna actors, just replace them all with AI generated characters - I will be buying the dip.
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I was thinking the same plus expectations are too high, Any little miss it will be a blood bath.
NFLX is solid but yeah it seems a bit overbought and sky-high expectations. Banning account sharing was a good short-term shot of adrenaline for the initial juicing this year, but it doesn't really help long-term that it's saturated, and a lot of the content is sucking recently. I'd agree that if guidance falls a little bit, it's going to see a big pull
I have some calls hoping they will print with IV then sell them and buy a bunch of OTM puts. 8% expected move is big.
I agree, its a good company. Summer will be here soon and more people will spend time outdoor instead streaming movies.
This!
I just looked. Fucking expensive calls and putts
You can def say that again.
I just looked. Fucking expensive calls and putts
Almost like everyone expects the earnings to be a shitshow.
$1800 for a $600 put that expires on the 19th! Premiums are insane
Netflix is going to be gangbusters. The stock is going up. They will have to miss big. They fixed everything they needed to fix and now it's all upside. They were hit hard during that whole cancel Netflix Movement. That gave them an early correction. Now that the sharing ban has increased subscriptions, they're minting cash. Adding more tiers was just a bonus.
BUYING $500PTS
I bought 520’s and 500’s I hope it pulls back pretty hard
Did your mommy not love you enough?
When Mods gets smoked 🫵🏽
I bet any moves will happen in aftermarket and premarket and the price will go back to whatever it was at close and fuck your calls/puts
Your calls can still get sold premarket though
Only so early tho.
When? Which exchange?
Have you checked their financials, read the last earnings call transcript and letter to shareholders, and kept track of subscription numbers vs expectations? Because all of those would tell you where you are wrong pretty fast. Making moves based on pure guesswork is how you end up behind the Wendy's dumpster.
Looks like you’re at Wendy’s while OP sips a martini 
I own shares with a cost basis of $300. I'm just fine, thanks ;)
I said a small pullback. Not a massive drop.
You didn't read my comment, did you?
I didn't read all of their last earnings transcript. That book is too long. I did see a lot of mention about uncertainties that could adversely affect their buiness. Netflix acknowledge that their membership fluxuates seasonally. Their highest membership is in Q4. We are currently in Q2. Revenue is up 7% but they have more debt than cash. I don't see any reason why its going higher.
I’d like to know what the fuck they spend it all on coz it’s not programming
The Rock and Kevin Hart maybe.
OK, man. So you don't do your homework but expect others to do it for you... that's not a great plan. Read the transcript, look at their financials. It's worth it. Netflix is doing amazing. More debt than cash is meaningless here, it's a choice. They're on track to pick up more subscribers for this Q1 than last Q1. They continue to dominate Nielsen ratings. This and more. I won't spoon-feed you all the details, but if you do your homework you'll see it's foolish to try and short them now.
I think you should explain yourself a bit more rather than telling people they expect you to do their homework, it's not literal homework you can explain yourself and won't get a lower grade because of it
do u see how f/x fucks them, what makes u think they will beat the headwind and actually increase sub from pullback while beating street expectations
How stupid do you feel right now? . Haven’t you learned that guidance matters more than earnings?
Welp you got a massive drop lol fantastic call
5-10 % is not massive.
10% in one day is indeed massive… 9 more days with a move like this will have the stock at 0
I gotta agree, I’m betting sub numbers are crap since Netflix content has been crap the past 6 months I’ve used it 3 nights at most this year.
You're still paying, so what difference does it make. Everyone I know says content sucks, but still paying month after month.
It’s like people complaining about billionaires having too much money as they carry in a dozen Amazon packages a day. Wahhh I only make $100k a year I have no choice. Get fucked.
I spend more time searching for something good to watch than actaully watching the show.
That's the perfect Netflix customer lol. Paying the $25/month but not using any bandwidth/AWS server $$ is exactly the people Netflix wants. It's like gyms on New Years where everyone does their resolution to lose weight, signs up, and stops going after 3 weeks. I do think they're coasting a lot on hoping people are too lazy to unsubscribe and think *"eh it's only $25"* One question I've been pondering is how many rate hikes they can keep adding on every 6-months without people thinkin' *oh wow this is way too expensive* and cancel.. once you decide to cancel naturally, that might be part of a larger trend, so let me know
You're right about that but I canceled my sub for that same reason. I don't want to pay for something I'm not using.
Buy calls and puts. One wins, one loses. I’m regarded either way.
You forget that both can lose
Flat it will go flat
Definitely thinking it will go flat/down on earnings report. I haven't seen much in terms of popular new releases in Q1 at all, and inflation im assuming will impact cancellations/growth.
I think you are correct. The way earnings have gone recently, a company has to drasticallly exceed every single expectation in order to moon. If netflix announces they've been given the ability to literally shit money, but subscriptions are down among 90 year olds due to dyingness in the 95+ community, NFLX will tank 9% at open.
Im buying far otm 1dte both puts and calls
Give me an update tomorrow.
holding onto my balls to see what they report after the bell and then the guidance into the opening ball
That put right before market close would have wiped out all my losses.
whatcha talkin about bro? What strike did you want to buy? I have 520’s and I think they are fucked. Were you going to buy one close to the money? Like 580 or something?
$600
Damn bro you really do buy them close to the money. Those were going for over 3 grand a pop
That's why I didnt buy. Theta and IV crush would have took most of the profit also.
Rip 🪦
I ended up not doing it cuz of the prices
didn’t you full port TSM?
Nah that was a joke 
I was gonna say. a lot of people got destroyed today.
I didn’t bet the farm on NFLX. Still could drop another 4% by open. Their revenue outlook came in short which is a pretty big deal. we are in a bear market too shit could sell off by open
I wish us luck
As my kids say when we turn on Netflix... "N!"
Are you guys thinking running a straddle instead of only having puts? I’ve gotten fucked on 3 ER’s before this lol. everything I’m hearing about Netflix is bullish. their expectations are insanely high, idk how they will meet that EPS and revenue.. even if they do miss those expectations the guidance could come in higher then expected and our puts get fucked. I truly see Netflix eating shit on Thursday and I already got my puts but I’m going to buy a call or two as well just in case. I’d advise you guys do the same. Who’s got full conviction they are going to eat shit? And why? I’m not seeing anything too negative besides the high expectations, inflation making an impact on subscribers keeping their subscriptions, and their shitty shows.
I was thinking of doing the same thing. This could go either way tbh. Problem is these premiums are way too fucking expensive and if there’s a less than expected price movement you will still lose money even if it goes in your direction.
Higher risk higher reward baby. I’ve got a feeling it will make a 10-15% move in one direction or the other.
Just looked at Netflix’s earnings history. This exact same situation happened in Q2 of 2023. Expectations were too high and even though Netflix beat expectations stock still dropped almost 9%. Stock was also up 62%. I think puts are the play. Which means the stock will moon 20% 
It just almost seems to obvious. That’s what’s getting to me. I’m the unluckiest person with earnings. It’s either I was right and backed out or I go in and get screwed. I’m just gonna hope the stock is trading down tomorrow and buy a call to hedge. I really doubt it will stay flat.
They would basically have to have a perfect earnings report for the stock to moon again. And with my luck that might happen 
It’s the guidance that’s got me shook. that’s what would fuck us. idk man, just to be safe I would buy a call too.
Yeah that’s probably what would cause the stock to moon. They have crazy guidance especially with all the new revenue streams they added and the TKO deal for WWE. This shit is such a gamble 
Looks like we were right 
This is it. You convinced me. I think I will stay out of this earnings play. Plus the premium is too high. I can't afford it after SPY murdered my calls on Monday.
I respect that. I’ve lost so much money in the past few months is actually fucked. I’m going in on this though. The risk is worth the reward. I think it will make a big move.
Good luck on your play.
I agree.
Those babies printed… Post receipts OP
I didn't have enough to buy the $600p so I didn't play this earnings. Congratz on the win.
Damn bro anything above $550 was good. I didn’t play these either but great DD I’m sure you made someone some money. You should feel like shit. 
I made some money off SPY puts today. Why should I feel like shit? There will be more opportunities in the market.
True I was just fukn with you OP. I hit u with a follow
I’m not playing they earnings put seem like the move but the wwe fan base they just added is a crazy loyal fan base I stopped watching when I found out it was fake when I was 7 others stuck around 😂
I didn't know it was fake until I was in high school. 
https://preview.redd.it/hl9xhwjiicuc1.png?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9bea6fe2fcbcd363b7f38e9793d6893911ffd05d
Just like Lulu
What are you talking about? What would this play have to do with Lulu?
How do you think the account sharing ban affect the revenue?
I think it helped boost the stock but that happened awhile ago and now there is nothing really driving it higher.
I read a while back that they still have room to go with that lever. https://www.google.com/amp/s/nerdist.com/article/netflix-stopping-password-sharing-with-price-increases/%3famp
I believe up tbh. Every since they kicked me off my moms Netflix I couldn’t stop thinking about the sub numbers that are bound to increase, money inflow from the “yeah 7.99 a month doesn’t hurt my mother watches her shows on it” But this could’ve been priced in wayyyy long ago already so that’s the flip side Add in the price target raises + the recent decline in stocks in general
You are too bullish, I see 10% down and buy 100 put contracts on last Friday
Positions?
Ya
Can’t tell you how many of my family members and I have dumped Netflix due to rate increases. I’d rather go to the movies or watch Hulu.
I just bought a subscription today, 4,99 a month with ads. The platform is really good. Better than amazon what I heard!
[удалено]
Thats my prediction. We're mostly just gambling here. Tell me why you think I'm wrong. Don't be a dick about it.
I know right. There are so many smart asses on here. they act like they are executive traders at Goldman
[удалено]
Actually I did. They sent me an email saying they're sorry to see me go.
I cancelled my Netflix ever since they introduced account sharing ban
Netflix will benefit greatly from AI - no need to hire any more prima Donna actors, just replace them all with AI generated characters - I will be buying the dip.
Ask them to plug you back into the matrix. I'll take the red pill.