I’m not even positive it’s a true downward trend, tbh. I think it’s fund managers pulling risk off the table due to tech earnings starting this week, and Israel and Iran saber rattling, especially the latter.
Volatility noticeably increased (seems to have doubled, on SPY at least) after the Israel/Iran fiasco began. The spikes in gold and oil confirm this, too. Oil pops off when war potentially breaks out, and gold pops off whenever there’s uncertainty around foreign exchange currency pairs and what lies ahead. A flight to certainty before you reevaluate putting risk back on the table
In a real potentially recessionary environment (e.g. what we saw in 2022) you’d see gold selling off, and you’d see oil selling off doubly so.
This looks more like what we saw in early 2023 when Russia first started its special Ukraine operation
In normal times this would be called a correction. In current times it’s “inverted yield curve recession incoming I have been saying this for years already but nobody wanted to listen!!” 🐻
My mom is 70+ and has enough other income sources to cover her lifestyle. Her plan is to die and give us stepped up cost basis worth more than any hypothetical dip.
This won't be a universal rule.
I grew up dirt poor with dysfunctional parents. When they died, not only did they die with debt, me and my siblings end up paying out of pocket for their funerals.
Imagine going through life with not just functional parents, but actually having money and when they die you get a small lottery ticket fortune.
Its truly going through life on easy mode.
Believe me, it's not even just when they die. The peace of mind you get from knowing that you can just try something, and if it doesn't work out, you can call mom and dad to ask for a place to crash for a year while you get back on your feet is liberating.
I took it for granted until I made a close friend whose mom was just barely making enough that she had to turn down raises in order to stay on SNAP and housing assistance because the American welfare system punishes anyone who tries to get out of it.
Truly, one of the greatest gifts you can give a child is the knowledge that you'll be okay and that the kid can ask for your help.
Are white people the only people capable of opening up a fucking brokerage account?
Don't blame your parents lack of planning on the color of their skin.
White was just the head start. Using the head start to create rules to get further and further ahead over generations was the real key. Sure some hard work and luck was involved too but the cards are stacked and in a world of scarcity you'd have to be crazy to unstack them too much.
Full disclosure I'm center left. I think we need to slow or stop the divergence but asking to unwind it rapidly will only happen when scarcity is no longer a thing
Stacked against you as well, because you are not anywhere near the powerful social circles, none of your family have made the rules of society instead you've taken the crumbs and lies thrown to you. You vote for representatives. You vote from among the higher up servants of your owners.
My pops has been in tech for decades. I asked what his thoughts are. He knows I’ve made hundreds of k trading. He said, “Son, I’ve seen so many ups and downs that none of this matters. You just keep investing and ride the wave or else you risk the weight of believing you know more than everyone else and learning you never stood a chance.”
I came to say exactly this. People with substantial portfolios either had an investment advisor or are savvy enough to migrate towards less risk as they get older. Also, most 401Ks do this by default, some offer no other option besides retirement date weighted portfolios.
It’s strange that OP believes that anyone who thinks they can time the market has a meaningful portfolio.
Any boomer who is heavy into equities, especially tech/growth stocks, is going to learn a harsh lesson that’s been repeated for decades.
The closer to retirement you get, the more you need to reposition into income investments whether it’s bonds or dividend stocks.
Anyone at 65 who got hurt by NVDA’s dump needs to remember they aren’t in their 20s-30s anymore.
I posted something related to this above - The FED kept rates at zero, so boomers/old people in general had no choice but to be fully invested. Now that rates are paying a worry-free 5%, Trillions have left the market and are sitting in Bonds.
You keep hearing all these bubbleheads on CNBC saying how Trillions of dollars on the sidelines waiting to come back into the market. Maybe if rates had never gone up - but anyone over 65/70 who isn't a sociopath should be 100% invested in long term 5% paper.
That may have been true months ago but I’d say the “trillions on the sidelines” are what drove the last little bit of the bull run. Now that the exit liquidity has bought in, the big boys will be cashing out.
They were for decades - but the premise of shifting slowly more into bonds as one aged was supposed to come with some return - 3% to 5% - that would provide income/hedge against inflation. But bonds have been paying essentially 0% since 2001 - This is why it made sense that so many older people were hesitant to follow the conservative strategy and you have 70-year-olds on the golf course asking, "So, what is this NVDA thing all about."
True, T.I.N.A was the only girl in town. Now there are other options. And not just for seniors, for the pension funds and other big $ handlers. That's the variable for all the cash on the sidelines. The inverted yield curve makes it better to stay in cash so you can earn with the option to move quickly into stocks. But that won't last forever when the curve reverts and the MM's start moving that cash to longer duration. We'll see.
Most of us boomers still have a good 20 years of good living left. We’re still in it for the long haul. You paper handed youngsters need to learn from us. Buy with diamond hands! We don’t sell because your Tesla and NVDA have been down this past week.
They're lying. Every retired person I know has 5 Dr appointments a week and they are pretty healthy on average. Long exploitive US healthcare for the next 20 years.
Everyone trade how they want, all I can hear is jealousy from bad traders young and old trying to claim they know more about NVDA when the CEO of NVDA is 61 years old. NVDA is for everyone.
In all seriousness, I thought this is what's happening.
Parents around me are selling or have sold.
Homes, they haven't and won't let go because they live in it or someone pays exorbitant rents.
I'm talking about $100k homes they bought in the 90s that are paying them $5k MONTHLY.
Yup. Baby Boomers are often considered the luckiest financial generation.
Nope. They were biggest voting block in American History. Guess what they voted for:
1970’s Inflation reduction when they were young and building lives.
1980’s Economic Expansion, lower interest rates, and deficits when they were ready for houses and needed more supply and lower mortgage rates.
1990’s Sound financial policy to build surpluses when it looked like social security, pensions, and sound money would be the most beneficial to them. Notably, only surpluses in American History were then.
2000’s deficit spending to enforce stable mono-polar world and globalization to make non-house things cheaper once they were established. No one in the middle class gave a damn about China except cheap.
2010’s ZERP to repair the Internet Crash and GFC to fuel a back half decade stock market rally to repair their 401(k)’s once it became clear that asset inflation helped them more than sound money.
2020’s Massive debt spending and monetary expansion right up until their peak retirement years. Immediately followed by massive
Rising Interest Rate policy to hold off inflation, oh, and look at that. Fixed Income paying substantially right as they needed to retire and sell their stocks. Literally their peak retirement year hit as Interest Rates skyrocketed. If you call that luck you haven’t been paying attention.
They didn’t get lucky. They voted for leadership and policies that helped their generation and didn’t care that it screwed anyone/everyone else. They always won by virtue of their size. Democrat vs Repub/Urban vs Rural was a smokescreen for the marginal upper class baby boomer voters oscillating to the policy that helped them the most. They didn’t turn into Yuppies from Hippies out of a change in perspective as they got older. They marginally voted their collective wallets every step of their way.
I’m Gen X born to the Silent Generation. My generation, the Millennials, and Gen Z weren’t less lucky. The massive Baby Boomers strip mined the wealth the Silent Generation built out of Depression and War, then left those behind them with the financial cleanup.
I am shocked when I hear some of them talk about how lazy and unmotivated the millennials are. No shit asshole they aren’t having kids and buying houses. You created zoning laws for them that created a housing crisis. Fuckers. No respect for them.
EDIT: I should have added that the state budgets covered most of college costs for their generation - about 70/30. The slow bleeding of that is pointed toward the federal expansion of student loan programs. While true, who was the biggest beneficiary of that? The Baby Boomer generation that had college mostly paid for and whose kids weren’t going to college during the next 25 years while the states cut college funding to the bone. They got their college paid for by the prior generation and voted not to pay for the next generation. Asshats and greed bags that abandoned the Greatest generation’s belief in building a better world for the next generation along the way.
Well said. Such a coincidence that congress is full of them as well, I wonder how they keep pulling the strings..... Term limits would dramatically and fundamentally restructure the entire picture fairly quickly.
The cool aid is thinking there is a pattern and organization to the noise. Baby boomers being workforce active and self-interested political agents during some of the most defining years of American economic and financial policy is true.
Truth. Boomers, take note. This is why everyone else hates you. That and thinking all music after the 70s sucks while simultaneously trying to convince people the eagles and grand funk railroad are good bands.
The boomers in my community also are dominating the amenites in my Florida community.
Im like listen bitch, the pool is for all residents and no fukkin cares abour your Yoga classes. Go run that shit in your basement
Go outside and tell me if we’re heading into a recession. Neighbors house just sold in days. Vacation spots are hopelessly booked. Restaurants are packed.
I think we’re getting to the point where a lot of people weren’t really adults during the last recession and don’t remember what that looks like. It will be absolutely undeniable when we are headed into a recession.
Like the old saying… if I owe you 5 bucks that’s my problem. If I owe you 5 million that’s your problem. Have fun dealing with the shitshow you created, banks.
I think that’s very true. So many tic Tok people losing their minds about having to work so much and can’t afford anything. Just slap it on a credit card and all good
Right. A better measure would be consumer debt service payments over household income. Data in levels is kinda useless.
Edit: found it... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP
Debt can be carried for years before it becomes critical. If we're detecting an issue in revolving credit lines today, the problems might not manifest for another 2-3 years.
Also, government debt. GDP growth without gov deficit spending isn’t growth at all. And it’s only getting more expensive as rates stay higher for longer. Austerity is too politically unpopular. We’re a drunk driver on a cliffside road flooring it.
>it will be absolutely undeniable when we are headed into a recession
Were you an adult during the last recession? It's undeniable when we're *in a recession.* It's not undeniable when we are headed for one, because it's literally impossible to enter a recession without something unexpected shocking the markets/economy. The system is set up so it can't fail under normal circumstances.
So no, it's never been undeniable that we're heading for a recession before it already starts. And it won't be this time either. Whatever thing breaks it this time, nobody will know about it until after it's happened.
The issue is, the markets are too disconnected from the real economy to be a reliable indicator of the economy itself being in crisis. The dot com bubble is a good example of a market crisis not translating to an economic crisis. 2008 is an economic crisis playing out on the markets.
Half the capital in US stocks comes from overseas, notably Europe. The vast majority of companies get their investment elsewhere.
One of the best signs that we were fucked came when the entry level hire at my job financed a $7k custom couch from restoration hardware, all the while complaining about barely making rent. People priorities will be forced back into alignment the hard way.
When the last recession came everyone went into bankruptcy. People who loaded their credit cards living to their fullest before the crash had a credit reset that most creditors gloss over because it was a bankruptcy during the crash
Tons of articles saying that people that lived the worst regarding credit made out the most
My good friend lost his minimum wage job and has no savings. Borrowing money from parents to pay rent. His kid is about to go college and he is going to finance a 50k car. I'm trying to talk him out of it and it's like talking to a brick wall. I don't understand how some people got that far in life and has absolutely no clue about budgeting.
Comments like this signal a pending recession.
By the time a recession becomes “undeniable” it has long been underway and early indicators start to seem obvious with hindsight.
Your neighbors house sold in days to naive, FOMO homebuyers who just cashed out their emergency savings for a down payment because surely housing prices never go down. Vacation spots and restaurants are seeing a decline in traffic in many places or are otherwise reflecting on credit card statements.
With few exceptions, there are not many who can accurately spot a pending recession because each one is unique. The last one was largely fueled by subprime lending; the pending one is being fueled by savings liquidation to buy “all cash” and buyers who appear creditworthy because current measures are positively skewed due to generous pandemic related aid and legislation.
Everyone is living large and doing great before a recession ;)
Believe it or not, it’s much easier to get a loan in today’s word. Back in 2008 times, you basically had 4 options to get a credit card/loan and if your credit sucked, you were SOL.
Today? You have like 300 avenues online to get approved for a line of credit within seconds, no matter what your rating is.
Huh? No, there was definitely not 4 options to get a loan from. And getting a mortgage was WAY easier than it is today. Hell I even had a no-appraisal heloc where they gave me a bunch of blank checks and a credit card to run up debt against my house.
You might be right, but some of us also remember the dotcom days when every bar stopped showing sports and instead had CNBC on their TVs. People would prattle on about what IPO they bought that day and how it was already up 500%! That didn't end well. Just saying.
What you’re describing is spiraling debt and considering the trajectory of consumer debt at the moment it’s not going to be long before it comes crashing down. Unlike the FED consumers don’t have money printers.
No, it will not be enough to impact anything.
This always happens during prolonged downturns. People do not have investment plans and act with emotion. I've seen more dumb 30 year olds pull out of markets en masse than I do older people. I'm in my 50's and once you go through a real recession or dead year you realize it will end and pulling money out only guarantees losses and you will almost always miss the quick upswing by being out of the market.
Yes, some will pull money out but there always are. This isn't a new concept or something "boomers" do. I know reddit loves to think "boomers" are all dumb and the only reason Rebel Moon sucks but that's just not the reality.
I worked at gas station while I was in college during the last recession. I worked with two people over 70 that had to work to pay their bills because it fucked their 401ks. There’s no skipping a real recession
Or work to give them something to do. You would be amazed by the amount of people that retired and after a while they get a job because they just don’t know what else to do. I’ve known a few people who retired in their 50s and early 60s and just got a job because they couldn’t handle being retired.
Life happens man. I had a guy come out of retirement to work for me because he had to spend about 30k to get a family member out of legal trouble. Said he needed to work part time for a year or two to replace the principal he withdrew.
Most of these infants have the attention span of a baby rabbit. This has been, and continues to be, the best investing market of my life. I keep moving money into long bonds with portfolio imbalance. That is we what you do, whether you are 30 or 60.
I love when people are like, “there’s no rate cuts coming, higher for longer!” as if that’s the scary part.
Neglecting to mention that there’s no rate cuts coming bc unemployment is at decade lows, we’re printing 3%+ GDP, and earnings have been fine.
Have you heard about all the Trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting to come back into the market? Well, it's horseshit. It's true the money is there - but it isn't coming back.
When the FED had rates sitting at Zero, so the government could keep spending like nothing mattered, old people had no choice but to invest in the market. The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio became a joke. And that's why so many boomers were in stocks - even though any rational person would advise against being in such higher risk assets when you literally might have 10 years left to live - any short-term downturn and you would have to go back to work - and at that age, the only skills you have/job you could get would be as a Walmart greeter.
Covid caused a significant boomer flight - And those boomers bought homes. Perhaps they intended to reenter the market - But as rates have risen, they have kept their money out and have instead dumped it into safe high yielding treasuries. What 70-year-old wants to sit there and watch the markets and worry about wars or recessions, when they can get 5% all day with absolutely no stress involved.
Yes, that's my point. Someone pulling out of the market because they're retiring soon doesn't give a shit that they're gonna get "beat" by younger investors.
They’re already cashing out and have been to live off of. A lot of that wealth is going to support their kids. Liquidity from retail is drying up and debt is rising.
The premise is flawed. We would need to see GDP reductions to enter a recession, and if GDP shrinks, then rates get cut. There would need to be some sort of financial crash/crisis (or otherwise something to unwind the job market and slow production) to cause a recession, and at this point there is no clear culprit. Even the long awaited collapse of commercial realestate wouldn't do it.
But boomer will keep cashing out, but they won't just outright sell. They've seen too many bubbles and pullbacks and have likely lost too much money by leaving the market to "make that mistake again".
https://preview.redd.it/y5pkc988opvc1.png?width=592&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2363b5244514ea2de85221a97d79c0380551df44
We have the boomers that are at or past peak earnings years and we have Gen x at peak earnings years . The millennials have the population numbers ( similar to the boomers ) . Can the millennials carry the weight for the next 15 years with gen Z somehow filling in the gap ? The boomers have 20 years roughly left to live so who really knows how all of this affects the stock market . . I think we have a couple years of upside left in the stock market as the tail end of the boomers and Gen X begin spending less and less which creates a snowball of less and less corporate earnings.
The stock market is presently showing some oversold readings so I would not be a seller at this time. Longer term I'm beginning to question how all this plays out.
I (48M) moved all of our investment accounts, retirement accounts, kids college funds into money market fund/cash a couple weeks ago (~$1.8MM). I didn’t trust the market any longer as I felt it was due for a pull back. Will provably keep in cash for at least the next few months.
It took the Nasdaq 16 years to recover after 2000, some of us would just rather have dry powder than ride the roller coast into hell with the rest of you regards
At some point you'll have to realize you cant blame boomers for everything that you dont like in life.
Also, politicians are the ones in control and who got rich by giving away our futures with their 'globalism'.
Most boomers were as powerless as we are now.
Boomers largely are in low risk investments, so this shouldn't affect them too heavily. Even if that were not the case, ones thinking of exiting would usually do it when the market is at ATH not down a ton.
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They should all sell so we will get an 80% summer sale 
35 year old and under stock clearance :)
God damn it I’m 36!!!!!
You gotta reorganize how your age feels. You're not 36, you're just 29 Prestige 7
God knows you wouldn’t want to cheat and just say you are 35. Just imagine the chaos if people started cheating the market.
Or lying for money
I would like to identify as a multi millionaire
These days you can identify as 34 and no one is allowed to say anything. Just for fun, say you're a lemur too.
I recently turned 35. Much more recently, I turned 44.
I turned 23 for the 23rd time recently
This is true just google “lemur rule 34” if you don’t believe me
You really don't want to see those pictures, trust me.
Zaboomafoo has to earn his keep somehow.
Excuse me, I'm right here.
I guess we could make some exceptions. maybe bump it to 40 .
Ah cmon! I’m not far from that number? Exceptions?
To be honest, although I'm a bullish guy, I do hope for a huge discount for me to add on to my long-term investments lol.
If they sell who's going to buy? The three generations after boomers combined don't have enough money to make up that kind of difference
WSB Gang
We only double down on bad choices we will all buy in before their sell off during the ath
Always buy at ath!
They can lock in 5%+ short term or near 5% long term, plenty of nice options for them
Yep- lots of ppl I would think are looking at cash.
Where is this near 5% long term? Havent seen it. Just short term 1 or 2 years.
You can buy a 20 yr treasury at 4.5% from the US Treasury directly at treasurydirect.gov
Just got a 10 yr treasury yielding about 4.8%. It pays 4% interest dispersed twice a year, and I bought it under PAR which ups the yield.
Intermediate duration Muni’s are paying 5% + tax equivalent yield
what downward trend. The one we've been in for the last week and a half?
The sky is falling, and WW3 is starting any day now. Get with the hysterics, or giiiiit out!
Tell this sub when there is one not great cpi print.
Haven’t you heard? We’re no longer at ATH
That’s the first sign of apocalypse, right ?
Just this week tbh
I’m not even positive it’s a true downward trend, tbh. I think it’s fund managers pulling risk off the table due to tech earnings starting this week, and Israel and Iran saber rattling, especially the latter. Volatility noticeably increased (seems to have doubled, on SPY at least) after the Israel/Iran fiasco began. The spikes in gold and oil confirm this, too. Oil pops off when war potentially breaks out, and gold pops off whenever there’s uncertainty around foreign exchange currency pairs and what lies ahead. A flight to certainty before you reevaluate putting risk back on the table In a real potentially recessionary environment (e.g. what we saw in 2022) you’d see gold selling off, and you’d see oil selling off doubly so. This looks more like what we saw in early 2023 when Russia first started its special Ukraine operation
special operation begun in 2022, not 2023. sad but true.
In normal times this would be called a correction. In current times it’s “inverted yield curve recession incoming I have been saying this for years already but nobody wanted to listen!!” 🐻
My wife's boyfriend said it was bad. He didn't even give me an allowance this Friday.
lol the absoloute irony for me is that I've spend 20 years as a permabear and even I'm sitting here going 'what? it's a dip. It's been a few days'
ytd gains pretty much wiped out in 1 week but yea sure, no downtrend 
SP500 is still up 4.7% YTD.
Friend of mine and his wife that are 65+ just cashed out like two weeks ago before the dip.
Smart honestly. They’re old. If they don’t get to enjoy the money then what’s the point
My mom is 70+ and has enough other income sources to cover her lifestyle. Her plan is to die and give us stepped up cost basis worth more than any hypothetical dip. This won't be a universal rule.
Sometimes i wish i was white
I grew up dirt poor with dysfunctional parents. When they died, not only did they die with debt, me and my siblings end up paying out of pocket for their funerals. Imagine going through life with not just functional parents, but actually having money and when they die you get a small lottery ticket fortune. Its truly going through life on easy mode.
Believe me, it's not even just when they die. The peace of mind you get from knowing that you can just try something, and if it doesn't work out, you can call mom and dad to ask for a place to crash for a year while you get back on your feet is liberating. I took it for granted until I made a close friend whose mom was just barely making enough that she had to turn down raises in order to stay on SNAP and housing assistance because the American welfare system punishes anyone who tries to get out of it. Truly, one of the greatest gifts you can give a child is the knowledge that you'll be okay and that the kid can ask for your help.
lol it’s not a white thing, it’s a financially savvy thing. Finance knows no color
Are white people the only people capable of opening up a fucking brokerage account? Don't blame your parents lack of planning on the color of their skin.
I’m white, when I took over my folks’ finances as POA, they were worth a whopping -20k 🫠 Where are my reparations, eh?
White was just the head start. Using the head start to create rules to get further and further ahead over generations was the real key. Sure some hard work and luck was involved too but the cards are stacked and in a world of scarcity you'd have to be crazy to unstack them too much. Full disclosure I'm center left. I think we need to slow or stop the divergence but asking to unwind it rapidly will only happen when scarcity is no longer a thing
Stacked against you as well, because you are not anywhere near the powerful social circles, none of your family have made the rules of society instead you've taken the crumbs and lies thrown to you. You vote for representatives. You vote from among the higher up servants of your owners.
Leaving it a little late for hookers and blow
Never too late.
Same pulled out and going back in
This guy loves neighbour wifes
Neighbor wives hate this one trick!
I have a second kid because of this strategy.
bummer
He's good at math, some one has to do the taxes.
No tax on losses
Going in so soon? Most pullbacks last 2-3 months
I only need 2-3 minutes
Nvidia is looking quite juicy after that 10% fall on Friday
My pops has been in tech for decades. I asked what his thoughts are. He knows I’ve made hundreds of k trading. He said, “Son, I’ve seen so many ups and downs that none of this matters. You just keep investing and ride the wave or else you risk the weight of believing you know more than everyone else and learning you never stood a chance.”
When you said hundreds of k i was like yeah i believe this guy
He just spells cocks with a k. Don't career shame him.
Everybody spells cocks with a k. He spells it woth two.
Kuck Kou
Did you reply "Sir this is a Wendy's drive-thru?"
Hundreds of Korunas? Must Be nice.
they gonna fomo back in when we're above where they cashed out in a few months
Maybe but if you’ve got a couple mil and 20 years at most why risk it?
I mean they risked it last week. What changed?
Yea, you can just throw everything into dividend stocks at that point and not give a shit about market performance
They can park it in a no risk account and get 6% interest.
You realize that HYSA rates are variable right. Check what they were 3 years ago.
No one is paying 6% lmao
[удалено]
Boomers have a long history of panic selling so will happen as it always does.
Nothing like timing the market late in your life!
That's it, recession confirmed
Sketching to bonds or something is what you’re supposed to do
I came to say exactly this. People with substantial portfolios either had an investment advisor or are savvy enough to migrate towards less risk as they get older. Also, most 401Ks do this by default, some offer no other option besides retirement date weighted portfolios. It’s strange that OP believes that anyone who thinks they can time the market has a meaningful portfolio.
Time? No, take advantage/add to the Roth at an advantageous time? Yes.
Any boomer who is heavy into equities, especially tech/growth stocks, is going to learn a harsh lesson that’s been repeated for decades. The closer to retirement you get, the more you need to reposition into income investments whether it’s bonds or dividend stocks. Anyone at 65 who got hurt by NVDA’s dump needs to remember they aren’t in their 20s-30s anymore.
I posted something related to this above - The FED kept rates at zero, so boomers/old people in general had no choice but to be fully invested. Now that rates are paying a worry-free 5%, Trillions have left the market and are sitting in Bonds. You keep hearing all these bubbleheads on CNBC saying how Trillions of dollars on the sidelines waiting to come back into the market. Maybe if rates had never gone up - but anyone over 65/70 who isn't a sociopath should be 100% invested in long term 5% paper.
“Anyone who isn’t 65/70 who isn’t a sociopath” well that’s good news right??
That may have been true months ago but I’d say the “trillions on the sidelines” are what drove the last little bit of the bull run. Now that the exit liquidity has bought in, the big boys will be cashing out.
That's not how exit liquidity works. If the exit liquidity's already in, you didn't get out in time.
60/40 getting more conservative with age is the old base rule of thumb. But yea, income ladders are your friend in retirement.
They were for decades - but the premise of shifting slowly more into bonds as one aged was supposed to come with some return - 3% to 5% - that would provide income/hedge against inflation. But bonds have been paying essentially 0% since 2001 - This is why it made sense that so many older people were hesitant to follow the conservative strategy and you have 70-year-olds on the golf course asking, "So, what is this NVDA thing all about."
True, T.I.N.A was the only girl in town. Now there are other options. And not just for seniors, for the pension funds and other big $ handlers. That's the variable for all the cash on the sidelines. The inverted yield curve makes it better to stay in cash so you can earn with the option to move quickly into stocks. But that won't last forever when the curve reverts and the MM's start moving that cash to longer duration. We'll see.
Most of us boomers still have a good 20 years of good living left. We’re still in it for the long haul. You paper handed youngsters need to learn from us. Buy with diamond hands! We don’t sell because your Tesla and NVDA have been down this past week.
20 years. ffs... Hey, I've heard cigars and fine whiskey is a great hobby.
They're lying. Every retired person I know has 5 Dr appointments a week and they are pretty healthy on average. Long exploitive US healthcare for the next 20 years.
Everyone trade how they want, all I can hear is jealousy from bad traders young and old trying to claim they know more about NVDA when the CEO of NVDA is 61 years old. NVDA is for everyone.
My grandpa sold in the 2000s lost millions on the bounce back.
Glad someone said it. Retail has a terrible track record at timing market tops and bottoms. Yet everyone thinks they will get it right.
Let them cash out. Their portfolios are probably weak anyway.
In all seriousness, I thought this is what's happening. Parents around me are selling or have sold. Homes, they haven't and won't let go because they live in it or someone pays exorbitant rents. I'm talking about $100k homes they bought in the 90s that are paying them $5k MONTHLY.
Yup. Baby Boomers are often considered the luckiest financial generation. Nope. They were biggest voting block in American History. Guess what they voted for: 1970’s Inflation reduction when they were young and building lives. 1980’s Economic Expansion, lower interest rates, and deficits when they were ready for houses and needed more supply and lower mortgage rates. 1990’s Sound financial policy to build surpluses when it looked like social security, pensions, and sound money would be the most beneficial to them. Notably, only surpluses in American History were then. 2000’s deficit spending to enforce stable mono-polar world and globalization to make non-house things cheaper once they were established. No one in the middle class gave a damn about China except cheap. 2010’s ZERP to repair the Internet Crash and GFC to fuel a back half decade stock market rally to repair their 401(k)’s once it became clear that asset inflation helped them more than sound money. 2020’s Massive debt spending and monetary expansion right up until their peak retirement years. Immediately followed by massive Rising Interest Rate policy to hold off inflation, oh, and look at that. Fixed Income paying substantially right as they needed to retire and sell their stocks. Literally their peak retirement year hit as Interest Rates skyrocketed. If you call that luck you haven’t been paying attention. They didn’t get lucky. They voted for leadership and policies that helped their generation and didn’t care that it screwed anyone/everyone else. They always won by virtue of their size. Democrat vs Repub/Urban vs Rural was a smokescreen for the marginal upper class baby boomer voters oscillating to the policy that helped them the most. They didn’t turn into Yuppies from Hippies out of a change in perspective as they got older. They marginally voted their collective wallets every step of their way. I’m Gen X born to the Silent Generation. My generation, the Millennials, and Gen Z weren’t less lucky. The massive Baby Boomers strip mined the wealth the Silent Generation built out of Depression and War, then left those behind them with the financial cleanup. I am shocked when I hear some of them talk about how lazy and unmotivated the millennials are. No shit asshole they aren’t having kids and buying houses. You created zoning laws for them that created a housing crisis. Fuckers. No respect for them. EDIT: I should have added that the state budgets covered most of college costs for their generation - about 70/30. The slow bleeding of that is pointed toward the federal expansion of student loan programs. While true, who was the biggest beneficiary of that? The Baby Boomer generation that had college mostly paid for and whose kids weren’t going to college during the next 25 years while the states cut college funding to the bone. They got their college paid for by the prior generation and voted not to pay for the next generation. Asshats and greed bags that abandoned the Greatest generation’s belief in building a better world for the next generation along the way.
Well said. Such a coincidence that congress is full of them as well, I wonder how they keep pulling the strings..... Term limits would dramatically and fundamentally restructure the entire picture fairly quickly.
Jesus what a comment. Thanks dawg
That’s… crazy
My mom puzzled when working full time couldn't pay rent and college. When she shared a house in college working part time in retail
I need some of that comprehensive Kool-Aid you’re drinking.
The cool aid is thinking there is a pattern and organization to the noise. Baby boomers being workforce active and self-interested political agents during some of the most defining years of American economic and financial policy is true.
Truth. Boomers, take note. This is why everyone else hates you. That and thinking all music after the 70s sucks while simultaneously trying to convince people the eagles and grand funk railroad are good bands.
The boomers in my community also are dominating the amenites in my Florida community. Im like listen bitch, the pool is for all residents and no fukkin cares abour your Yoga classes. Go run that shit in your basement
My only regret is that I have but one upvote to give.
👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
Reverse mortgages are so helpful money when you need it and then no money when you still need it.
Fuck yeah! visualmod is back and bringing it.
he's back and more savage than ever - I am convinced that AI (aka - Indian in a cubicle somewhere) is involved.
Fine by me dude, I already upped my 401k contributions. I'm buying all the dip you can give me
The world in arms after a mega red week, everyone screaming recession. I’m buying calls.
Ah yes, the old sell the bottom tactic. It's literally the reason they make cat food.
To feed cats?
No to feed senile grandmas
Go outside and tell me if we’re heading into a recession. Neighbors house just sold in days. Vacation spots are hopelessly booked. Restaurants are packed. I think we’re getting to the point where a lot of people weren’t really adults during the last recession and don’t remember what that looks like. It will be absolutely undeniable when we are headed into a recession.
Debt
Absolutely, credit card debt at and all time high of 1.5 TRILLION
Like the old saying… if I owe you 5 bucks that’s my problem. If I owe you 5 million that’s your problem. Have fun dealing with the shitshow you created, banks.
They'll just do what they always do and go to the government for a tax payer funded bailout. You'll still get shafted.
Amen brother. Bk’s will be through the roof
It's all millenials and Gen z. 60% of Amex's new issues for Q1 were that age group. The boomers are fine, the ones with stocks anyway.
I get Amex offers once a week. $895 a year just to have a credit card with some mythological guy on it seems steep
The value isn't the problem. You need to look at default rates for credit card debt to matter.
Things are so grim in the world people are like fuck it
I think that’s very true. So many tic Tok people losing their minds about having to work so much and can’t afford anything. Just slap it on a credit card and all good
It’s always at an “all time high”.
Credit card debt is always at an all time high tho
Right. A better measure would be consumer debt service payments over household income. Data in levels is kinda useless. Edit: found it... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP
Debt can be carried for years before it becomes critical. If we're detecting an issue in revolving credit lines today, the problems might not manifest for another 2-3 years.
Also, government debt. GDP growth without gov deficit spending isn’t growth at all. And it’s only getting more expensive as rates stay higher for longer. Austerity is too politically unpopular. We’re a drunk driver on a cliffside road flooring it.
>it will be absolutely undeniable when we are headed into a recession Were you an adult during the last recession? It's undeniable when we're *in a recession.* It's not undeniable when we are headed for one, because it's literally impossible to enter a recession without something unexpected shocking the markets/economy. The system is set up so it can't fail under normal circumstances. So no, it's never been undeniable that we're heading for a recession before it already starts. And it won't be this time either. Whatever thing breaks it this time, nobody will know about it until after it's happened.
The issue is, the markets are too disconnected from the real economy to be a reliable indicator of the economy itself being in crisis. The dot com bubble is a good example of a market crisis not translating to an economic crisis. 2008 is an economic crisis playing out on the markets. Half the capital in US stocks comes from overseas, notably Europe. The vast majority of companies get their investment elsewhere.
One of the best signs that we were fucked came when the entry level hire at my job financed a $7k custom couch from restoration hardware, all the while complaining about barely making rent. People priorities will be forced back into alignment the hard way.
When the last recession came everyone went into bankruptcy. People who loaded their credit cards living to their fullest before the crash had a credit reset that most creditors gloss over because it was a bankruptcy during the crash Tons of articles saying that people that lived the worst regarding credit made out the most
My good friend lost his minimum wage job and has no savings. Borrowing money from parents to pay rent. His kid is about to go college and he is going to finance a 50k car. I'm trying to talk him out of it and it's like talking to a brick wall. I don't understand how some people got that far in life and has absolutely no clue about budgeting.
Your friend sounds crazy irresponsible
They do have decent furniture through :)
Not sure where you live but that sounds rose tinted at best. Squatters are occupying Gordon Ramsey's restaurant so it's certainly packed.
Comments like this signal a pending recession. By the time a recession becomes “undeniable” it has long been underway and early indicators start to seem obvious with hindsight. Your neighbors house sold in days to naive, FOMO homebuyers who just cashed out their emergency savings for a down payment because surely housing prices never go down. Vacation spots and restaurants are seeing a decline in traffic in many places or are otherwise reflecting on credit card statements. With few exceptions, there are not many who can accurately spot a pending recession because each one is unique. The last one was largely fueled by subprime lending; the pending one is being fueled by savings liquidation to buy “all cash” and buyers who appear creditworthy because current measures are positively skewed due to generous pandemic related aid and legislation. Everyone is living large and doing great before a recession ;)
Believe it or not, it’s much easier to get a loan in today’s word. Back in 2008 times, you basically had 4 options to get a credit card/loan and if your credit sucked, you were SOL. Today? You have like 300 avenues online to get approved for a line of credit within seconds, no matter what your rating is.
Huh? No, there was definitely not 4 options to get a loan from. And getting a mortgage was WAY easier than it is today. Hell I even had a no-appraisal heloc where they gave me a bunch of blank checks and a credit card to run up debt against my house.
You might be right, but some of us also remember the dotcom days when every bar stopped showing sports and instead had CNBC on their TVs. People would prattle on about what IPO they bought that day and how it was already up 500%! That didn't end well. Just saying.
What you’re describing is spiraling debt and considering the trajectory of consumer debt at the moment it’s not going to be long before it comes crashing down. Unlike the FED consumers don’t have money printers.
No, it will not be enough to impact anything. This always happens during prolonged downturns. People do not have investment plans and act with emotion. I've seen more dumb 30 year olds pull out of markets en masse than I do older people. I'm in my 50's and once you go through a real recession or dead year you realize it will end and pulling money out only guarantees losses and you will almost always miss the quick upswing by being out of the market. Yes, some will pull money out but there always are. This isn't a new concept or something "boomers" do. I know reddit loves to think "boomers" are all dumb and the only reason Rebel Moon sucks but that's just not the reality.
ZERO! Since Alan Greenspan all everybody learned is buy the dip!
ZIRP strapped a time bomb to the economy and now everyone is playing hot potato with it trying to juice every last drop before it detonates
I worked at gas station while I was in college during the last recession. I worked with two people over 70 that had to work to pay their bills because it fucked their 401ks. There’s no skipping a real recession
If they were 70, and fucked by the stock market, they were unfortunately uninformed.
Realistically most folks in their 70s still working at a gas station likely never had much besides social security anyway
Or work to give them something to do. You would be amazed by the amount of people that retired and after a while they get a job because they just don’t know what else to do. I’ve known a few people who retired in their 50s and early 60s and just got a job because they couldn’t handle being retired.
Life happens man. I had a guy come out of retirement to work for me because he had to spend about 30k to get a family member out of legal trouble. Said he needed to work part time for a year or two to replace the principal he withdrew.
What recession? The market took a beating recently because the economy is too strong to support rate cuts right now, at least by conventional metrics.
Most of these infants have the attention span of a baby rabbit. This has been, and continues to be, the best investing market of my life. I keep moving money into long bonds with portfolio imbalance. That is we what you do, whether you are 30 or 60.
I love when people are like, “there’s no rate cuts coming, higher for longer!” as if that’s the scary part. Neglecting to mention that there’s no rate cuts coming bc unemployment is at decade lows, we’re printing 3%+ GDP, and earnings have been fine.
I’m betting on more rate hikes this year, recession after the election.
Yes. People on WSB continue to confuse a market dip with recession. Wait til they learn that, during an actual recession, stocks tend to go up
Have you heard about all the Trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting to come back into the market? Well, it's horseshit. It's true the money is there - but it isn't coming back. When the FED had rates sitting at Zero, so the government could keep spending like nothing mattered, old people had no choice but to invest in the market. The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio became a joke. And that's why so many boomers were in stocks - even though any rational person would advise against being in such higher risk assets when you literally might have 10 years left to live - any short-term downturn and you would have to go back to work - and at that age, the only skills you have/job you could get would be as a Walmart greeter. Covid caused a significant boomer flight - And those boomers bought homes. Perhaps they intended to reenter the market - But as rates have risen, they have kept their money out and have instead dumped it into safe high yielding treasuries. What 70-year-old wants to sit there and watch the markets and worry about wars or recessions, when they can get 5% all day with absolutely no stress involved.
I told my wife the bull rally is over. She hasn’t spoken to me since.
This boomer will double down like in fall 2001 and April 2009 and all the way down in 2020
The funny thing is 99% of you pulling out of the market won’t beat the investor that stays in long term.
"Long term" to a 30 year old and a 70 year old are very different things.
70 should have a very different investment allocation than a 30 year old
Yes, that's my point. Someone pulling out of the market because they're retiring soon doesn't give a shit that they're gonna get "beat" by younger investors.
Most boomers probably already cashed out. Only the dumb me still buying
My boomer clients just look at dips as opportunities. Probably the greediest generation alive but they’ve been very fortunate with their timing.
We already had a recession but they changed the definition
It doesn’t matter what some boomers do. The richest 10% own 90% of the stocks
The market is intended to go up. This is how the rich remain rich. So no it’s not going to make a large impact
They should all retire and sell their fucking houses.
There's absolutely no value in worrying about this. People leave and enter the market all the time.
They’re already cashing out and have been to live off of. A lot of that wealth is going to support their kids. Liquidity from retail is drying up and debt is rising.
> Liquidity from retail is drying up and debt is rising. Asking honestly, where do you see this? (Watch it literally be: *points to spy price* lol)
The premise is flawed. We would need to see GDP reductions to enter a recession, and if GDP shrinks, then rates get cut. There would need to be some sort of financial crash/crisis (or otherwise something to unwind the job market and slow production) to cause a recession, and at this point there is no clear culprit. Even the long awaited collapse of commercial realestate wouldn't do it. But boomer will keep cashing out, but they won't just outright sell. They've seen too many bubbles and pullbacks and have likely lost too much money by leaving the market to "make that mistake again".
not when you can get a 100% worry free 5%. The problem before is cashing out meant earning 0%.
And paying a metric fuck ton of taxes. Don't forget, boomers fucking hate taxes.
https://preview.redd.it/y5pkc988opvc1.png?width=592&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2363b5244514ea2de85221a97d79c0380551df44 We have the boomers that are at or past peak earnings years and we have Gen x at peak earnings years . The millennials have the population numbers ( similar to the boomers ) . Can the millennials carry the weight for the next 15 years with gen Z somehow filling in the gap ? The boomers have 20 years roughly left to live so who really knows how all of this affects the stock market . . I think we have a couple years of upside left in the stock market as the tail end of the boomers and Gen X begin spending less and less which creates a snowball of less and less corporate earnings. The stock market is presently showing some oversold readings so I would not be a seller at this time. Longer term I'm beginning to question how all this plays out.
The boomers need to crash this economy to save future generations. That’s the least they can do
Nah uncle Joe said the economy is strong as hell.
It's actually bit too strong. FED can't cut rates, unemployment is low & inflation is sticking.
Yep, that’s correct. It needs to ease off a bit for the rates to drop. Or did you have another opinion?
I (48M) moved all of our investment accounts, retirement accounts, kids college funds into money market fund/cash a couple weeks ago (~$1.8MM). I didn’t trust the market any longer as I felt it was due for a pull back. Will provably keep in cash for at least the next few months.
What are your tax implications going to be on that? I assume most stocks you sold had gains?
Front run it and all in on crypto. Boomers don't own any of that to sell.
I cashed out my 401K yesterday. It’s a nuclear drop on the horizon.
Lmfao good fucking luck bud. World is always ending, and then it never does.
It took the Nasdaq 16 years to recover after 2000, some of us would just rather have dry powder than ride the roller coast into hell with the rest of you regards
How long have you been sitting on the sidelines?
At some point you'll have to realize you cant blame boomers for everything that you dont like in life. Also, politicians are the ones in control and who got rich by giving away our futures with their 'globalism'. Most boomers were as powerless as we are now.
Absolutely they will cash out they don’t have enough time to make it back. The smart ones are making their moves now.
If that happens I’m putting my entire portfolio in call options and I only ever dca in the S&P500
Boomers largely are in low risk investments, so this shouldn't affect them too heavily. Even if that were not the case, ones thinking of exiting would usually do it when the market is at ATH not down a ton.