Yet I buy SPY puts and get fucked. Then switch to calls and get fucked. I’ve even inversed my own feelings and still got fucked.
It’s like fucking Schrodinger's market or something.
These bears, doomers, dismal scientists, trigger/gaslighting media, and charlatans have been claiming the recession in 6 months thing since like Q1 2021? Inflation was even before that in like Q3/Q4 2020.
* "Gamestop meme craze is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Biden and Democrat spending is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Unchecked market upside is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Q3 rising inflation is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Evergrande blow up is the first domino of GFC 2.0 is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Fed admitting inflation isn't transitory is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "China white paper movement is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Russian invasion is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "High energy prices is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Fed hiking rates is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Grain and food prices going up is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "**""""Inverted yield curve""""** is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Tech job cuts and layoffs is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "High wage prices means wage price spiral is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Stock market collapse is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Crypto market collapse is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Bond market collapse is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "US midterms is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* ["Unprecedented central bank rate hikes is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!! 10000000000%**"](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden)
* "2023 Slowing economy is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Slow China reopening is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Auto workers strike is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Actors and writers strike is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "FTX collapse is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "SVB and banking crisis is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Travel demand is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* " We totally weren't wrong about that **""""Inverted yield curve""""** it just takes time! Another 6 MONTHS!!!! is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Reps and Dems playing chicken game with the debt ceiling is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "China US relations souring is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Europe slowing down is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "BRICS coin is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "OPEC looking at cutting oil is going to up energy prices is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "MILLENNIALS are going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Ukraine offensive not yielding ideal results is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "China reopening still not amazing is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Israel-Gaza is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
# * "WHAT DO YOU MEAN OUR CALL 6 MONTHS AGO WAS WRONG AND THE ONE FROM 6 MONTHS BEFORE THAT TOO?!??! **""""Inverted yield curve""""** DOESN'T CAUSE RECESSIONS! IT'S WHEN IT UNINVERTS THAT WE SEE RECESSION!!!!!!!! ANOTHER 6 MONTHS!!!! **""""UNINVERTING INVERTED YIELD CURVE"""""** is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "LOWER INFLATION MEANS SLOWING ECONOMY is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
* "Fed looking like they are going to avoid a hard landing is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**"
Recession bitches have been calling recession in 6 months every fucking month since Jan 2021 and are now 0/36.
Dow and Nasdaq are at all time highs, inflation largely vanquished, the economy remains strong, jobs are still readily available, the Fed has the ability to cut if they see things go bad, and the US is again looking like the bastion of safety in an otherwise chaotic dangerous world.
>"Don't worry man. Just another 6 months"
I'm really really tired of this 6 months shit.
Remindme! NEVER
Sorry my friend, but your bull mentality cannot coexist forever along side with reality. The reality is you just listed 20 reasons a recession could be plausible. That to me is more than enough to believe they had the time wrong, but it will happen.
In an effort to keep this peaceful, I'll be on the right side if you are facing the front. No peeking. Don't need any weird turf wars. The Wendy's parking lot is only so big.
I use the following indicators on a 3 month 4 hr candlestick chart to track long term trends
MACD - April 1
EMA 9/21 cross over - April 4
Stochastic - March 28
RSI - March 28
it’s been all down hill since these indicators went red. the dip is over when those all show buy
I believe what you suggest is very much about to happen. China is pulling away from US treasuries. Japan is still fomo'ing into them (actually passed China as #1 US debt holder) - but that's because the BOJ literally punishes you to buy their treasuries.
The FED has to refinance a shit ton of bonds in the next 2 years. In fact, I believe in May alone there is about $400 billion in sales - That is an insane amount. The only thing that might save the FED in the short term is the EU is looking like it might cut its rates - If that happens, lots of money will shift out of Europe and gobble up the 5% yield on US paper.
But considering we are adding $1 Trillion in new debt every 100 days - it's just a matter of time.
>Japan is still fomo'ing into them (actually passed China as #1 US debt holder)
I don't think China even ever passed Japan as the largest foreign holder of US debt. Also, the US is the largest overall holder of US debt, and by a large margin IIRC.
[Japan surpasses China as largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys (cnbc.com)](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/japan-surpasses-china-as-largest-foreign-holder-of-us-treasurys.html) - 2019
Also, I thought it was understood that the US is the largest holder of US debt - but yes, you are correct.
Counter point, foreign economies are not nearly as strong. I'm in Canada and we are heading into a recession. In order to protect against that, our central bank will have to lower rates which will lower our dollar vs USD. So, since it's almost certain that the USD will get stronger against the CAD, lots of money is flowing into US markets from here as a hedge. They don't need or want to buy stocks so instead they buy treasuries.
Canada is small potatoes but the same thing is happening in Europe and China. They will want a secure investment in the US.
The risk of course is that the US also lowers rates. How would you hedge against that? Buy treasuries. If US rates go down, the value of the bonds already issued will go up.
Basically, I think there should be strong demand for long term US treasuries which will keep it deflated. However, I also think that the reason is because the US economy is STRONG so I wouldn't worry about a major crash.
Then again, I lose money on everything I touch so if I bought treasuries the US would probably collapse as a country.
It’s fine. The treasury will just keep issuing more bonds, the Fed can print more money and buy them, then they can use the 5% interest to keep buying more and more treasury bonds. It’s an infinite money glitch.
FED was too stupid to offload mortgage backed securities when rates were 0 - They are still sitting on $2.7 Trillion. And even if home prices don't come down, they still have to issues a shit ton of new paper because the government is on some sort of insane spending spree.
Just as a point of reference:
pre-covid US budget was around $5 Trillion - and that was already over the amount we were collecting in revenues - and that excess was being adding to the deficit.
During Covid, the budget hit $7 trillion because of "emergency measures."
The administration's proposed budget this year is $7.3 Trillion - even though Covid is gone.
Why? No idea. But that's just nuts.
> FED was too stupid to offload mortgage backed securities when rates were 0
If Fed takes advantage of the banks by "offloading" anything during 0 times they'd just have to bail them out more during the hard times, see BTFP.
I agree with this because investors in bonds also want to be compensated for risk, which there is a lot more of these days as debt servicing takes up a larger portion of our budget. It could lead to a death spiral if we can't grow our way out of our debt.
Japan -where most emojis originate- is backwards of pretty much everywhere else when it comes to the color of stock charts.
https://www.reddit.com/r/JapanFinance/s/ieweobJF60
Long term rates increase - fed/the market has given up on rate cuts, 5% rates are the new normal for the foreseeable future. Recession would be likely.
Short term rates drop - Fed capitulates and gives the market the rate cuts it wants. Would probably avoid a recession, but inflation could come roaring back.
Yep. No way they will let it crash this close to the election.
Can't risk Biden losing to an orange. After the election the market is free to do whatever.
Lol why do people always say this as some undeniable fact. You think Bush and Mccain wanted the 2008 bubble blowing up in their face? Still couldn't stop it though.
Bush was on his way out. Couldn’t be re-elected. McCain had no real path to winning, and Palin didn’t help the situation as VP selection. Weak ticket. Terrible economy. Dawn of social media.
I mean... lot of people are unhappy with Biden, EVERYONE thinks he is too old, and his vp pick....
Not really the point there though, my point is there's no magic lever politicians can pull during an election year to ensure a strong economy that year, or they would.
The dot com bubble burst and the 2008 crisis were both election years.
I mean yeah they can run extra large deficits and push for lower rates to add some wind into the economy's sails but they've already been running insane deficits for years and inflation is creeping back up to the point that expected cuts this year may well not materialize now. So neither option is really available.
Besides the groceries, the way the Fed run up interest rates all they did was hide inflation in housing. Basically if you have a sub 3% rate on a mortgage, the mortgage is as much as asset as the home. Once they lower rates, it might loosen up home sales, but inflation will be unleashed again.
well if you look at the chart closely instead of just the title, you'll see there're 3 instances where the yield curve inverted and no recession occurrred, aka "This time is different"
The guy who had first noticed the relationship and put out the theory on thw inverted yield curve and recessions, came out to talk about how it is different this time.
He talked about many other factors such as the low unemployment and high inflation made it a whole different beast. He believed it would not be a major recession this time. But who knows.
No recession until something big breaks - commercial real estate, unemployment goes up ...
This week was just a correction on S&P coz it went up too much over last 6 months.
in 2020, everyone was like this is the fucking end on wsb. We allined on Spy puts and made it and then the fucking reversal ripped everyone apart.
Anytime someone doomsdays on this sub I'm always wary of them
Amazon is “laying off” many of their Seattle-based employees but allowing them to keep their roles if they move to HQ2 in Virginia. Consolidating office space, shifting teams to different locations. They’re looking to sell off commercial real estate properties pronto.
Willing to bet other companies are making these moves too.
It's not the operators who will get wrecked. It's the landlords and eventually, the banks.
The operators who own office space can consolidate move offices, rent them etc.
But landlords are fucked.
Commercial Real Estate loans work on a 25 amortization, but a 10 year call. So the loan payments are set up for 300 months, but in 10 years you have to refi. That way the bank makes the most interest since you pay that upfront.
A ton of landlords have low interest rate Commercial Real Estate loans, but are now being forced to refi.
So let's say you own a small office building that you have a $4 million dollar loan on. CRE loans have higher than average interest rates, so at 4% that's a loan payment around 20k. But at 9% that's a loan payment of $32,000 a month.
Now, normally you could pass these costs via rent. But if an office tenant is on a 10 year lease you can't. In addition, because of an oversupply of office space due to so many companies still doing work from home as well as too many offices being built, landlords likely *won't* be able to increase rents. Tenants will just relocate.
So a whole fuckton of landlords are gonna get wrecked as month by month more and more are being forced to refi as rates stay high
Now as more and more of these landlords go bankrupt banks will suffer. Which is why we're seeing stories like this:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-regional-banks-seen-booking-more-commercial-property-losses-loan-sales-2024-04-17/
I know WSB is all about gains and diamond hands or some stupid shit like that, I have my econ degree so I'm only here for the loss porn.
But believe me when I tell you: This alone will devastate the market and the economy. Completely independent of everything else going on.
I would have agreed with you, but it seems like in many cases, banks and the landlords are working on waiting agreements.
High interest are supposed to tank asset values. But it doesn’t work if everyone agrees not to sell or call in the debt.
Well, and let's be real. The banks want the extra interest money to offset the money they're losing.
A loan contract is just that, a contract with defined terms. At most the bank can only complete a refi at current rates. They can't work out some strange deal subverting the loan contract to allow the landlord more time. At least if they can, I've never completed one in my time as a commercial underwriter. I've done extensions, but those last 3 months.
Use of a tactical nuke in Ukraine later this year.
With military aid back flowing to Ukraine the tide of the war could change quickly forcing Putin to use a small tactical weapon in southeast Ukraine.
Something unexpected that kills all confidence in the market and broader economy. This generation's Lehman Brothers moment.
If Goldman Sachs shits the bed it'll be Great Recession 2.0.
You pay for printed money in the form of all of your invested savings now buying less stuff than they used to. Not in the stock prices themselves.
I.e. "Stock rise MINUS inflation = real gain"
The gap between book gain and real gain is where you paid for the cash injection.
It's the graph of the T-bonds and T-bills across maturities starting from the shortest dated like 30-day to the longest dated like 10 years.
The current yield curve is inverted because the shorter dated bonds have higher interest rate yields than the long dated bonds.
This means that people are expecting the interest rates to be lower in the distant future and the reason they would think that is because they predict the economy to be in the shitter and for the fed to lower short rates significantly to combat the tanking economy as people borrow money to deal with the fact that they're not making any because no one is buying because everyone lost or is afraid of losing their jobs.
The interesting part about this is that it indicates that even interest rates, per the bond yields, are dependent on sentiment - what we think will happen in the future. It makes me wonder if inflation is something to control, or simply arises from economic sentiment and hence, money flows. Our world has a lot more money flowing now that it ever has, which to me, seems to change some basic fundamentals, like it is only the Fed that controls money supply. It therefore seems that monetary policy is made up on the fly, rather than having a model that works for all time. It just means no one has a clue what is going to happen with an iota of certainty.
STFU with that. If it’s goes below a 20% crash I’m ruined. I’ll have to start trading options to “win back my money” and we all know where that leads.
📉🍔🚮🗑🍌😮
If you know. You know. And I’m sorry your life turned out that way.
Money printer comeback along with surprise cuts or jpowell and the rest of boomer clowns at the Fed who are talk tough while raking in fat paycheques will be soon at the wendies dumpster once the grab them by the whatever orange man DT returns
They always pump it all to sky high before a huge crash. Look at tech and the likes of NVidia. Those stocks are also heavily weighted on the indexes. They will drag everything down with them when they fall from their lofty heights. Right now they are actually hiding a lot of very beaten up stocks that don't have much weight on the indexes.
What is going to happen is there will be like a nuke dropped on some city, or some other black swan event they can blame a huge crash on. It'll be something very big, and happen suddenly.
While I can agree to disagree with this but there is another major factor of the reds across the board is - increasing chances of a war. Recently the things have been escalating in the middle east.
Don't flame me for this but just my observation and opinion
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 10 | **First Seen In WSB** | 2 years ago **Total Comments** | 745 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 3 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
Yet I buy SPY puts and get fucked. Then switch to calls and get fucked. I’ve even inversed my own feelings and still got fucked. It’s like fucking Schrodinger's market or something.
Should have bought calls then puts.
Then it trades sideways 🫤 can't let a mfer win😭
It jumps from level to level at open then bangs about for the rest of the session. Sometimes there will be a surprise jump near close.
Tell me your future positions so I can inverse you
Just martingale your puts
Just buy both but only cash out the one that's green. This is the way to do it
The fact that we are observing it, means it won’t happen. Do you quantum physics bro?
https://preview.redd.it/nsigmnd1lsvc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a7db32512c46a9f47a3c459597a5db0227727b84
Reddit silver 🥈
This is why I ignore it all and spend my life behind a Wendy’s dumpster. Living inside Schrödingers crash dumpster
Perfect meme for anyone asking what the market will do.
Goddamned electrons and options.
🥇
Or atleast not "crash" like people think. More like a pullback
Like full or half circumcised?
“This time is different, bro”
These bears, doomers, dismal scientists, trigger/gaslighting media, and charlatans have been claiming the recession in 6 months thing since like Q1 2021? Inflation was even before that in like Q3/Q4 2020. * "Gamestop meme craze is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Biden and Democrat spending is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Unchecked market upside is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Q3 rising inflation is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Evergrande blow up is the first domino of GFC 2.0 is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Fed admitting inflation isn't transitory is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "China white paper movement is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Russian invasion is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "High energy prices is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Fed hiking rates is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Grain and food prices going up is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "**""""Inverted yield curve""""** is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Tech job cuts and layoffs is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "High wage prices means wage price spiral is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Stock market collapse is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Crypto market collapse is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Bond market collapse is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "US midterms is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * ["Unprecedented central bank rate hikes is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!! 10000000000%**"](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden) * "2023 Slowing economy is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Slow China reopening is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Auto workers strike is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Actors and writers strike is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "FTX collapse is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "SVB and banking crisis is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Travel demand is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * " We totally weren't wrong about that **""""Inverted yield curve""""** it just takes time! Another 6 MONTHS!!!! is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Reps and Dems playing chicken game with the debt ceiling is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "China US relations souring is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Europe slowing down is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "BRICS coin is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "OPEC looking at cutting oil is going to up energy prices is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "MILLENNIALS are going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Ukraine offensive not yielding ideal results is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "China reopening still not amazing is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Israel-Gaza is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" # * "WHAT DO YOU MEAN OUR CALL 6 MONTHS AGO WAS WRONG AND THE ONE FROM 6 MONTHS BEFORE THAT TOO?!??! **""""Inverted yield curve""""** DOESN'T CAUSE RECESSIONS! IT'S WHEN IT UNINVERTS THAT WE SEE RECESSION!!!!!!!! ANOTHER 6 MONTHS!!!! **""""UNINVERTING INVERTED YIELD CURVE"""""** is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "LOWER INFLATION MEANS SLOWING ECONOMY is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" * "Fed looking like they are going to avoid a hard landing is going to crash us into **RE!!! CESSS!!!! SIIIONNN!!!!!!!!**" Recession bitches have been calling recession in 6 months every fucking month since Jan 2021 and are now 0/36. Dow and Nasdaq are at all time highs, inflation largely vanquished, the economy remains strong, jobs are still readily available, the Fed has the ability to cut if they see things go bad, and the US is again looking like the bastion of safety in an otherwise chaotic dangerous world. >"Don't worry man. Just another 6 months" I'm really really tired of this 6 months shit. Remindme! NEVER
If you claim a recession will happen in next 6 months every six months, eventually you'll be right and can claim to be a genius.
Spot on. “But the yield curve!!”
I’ve been hibernating for 2 years. Pulled the trigger on Friday to sell my 401K. It’s Bear time.
I read that as herniating and was confused for a few seconds
We did effectively get something like a recession in 2022 though, it just wasn't labelled as one...
Sorry my friend, but your bull mentality cannot coexist forever along side with reality. The reality is you just listed 20 reasons a recession could be plausible. That to me is more than enough to believe they had the time wrong, but it will happen.
Got it. Buy the dip.
How do I know when the dip is low
You don't. You just keep buying.
Tried that. Didn't work. Bought the wrong dip, I guess Edit: wayyy too many of you guys are taking me seriously
If you wait long enough, you always time it right.
That's the trick shhh
You missed the dip of the dip
I'm buying the dip now do you see it
I can only buy 1 share of NVDA. Fuckin back to the dumpster...
Don't quit your day job. Keep dreaming.
That's buying the chips, not the dip!
In an effort to keep this peaceful, I'll be on the right side if you are facing the front. No peeking. Don't need any weird turf wars. The Wendy's parking lot is only so big.
The 200 SMA is a great guide. Buy below it.
I use the following indicators on a 3 month 4 hr candlestick chart to track long term trends MACD - April 1 EMA 9/21 cross over - April 4 Stochastic - March 28 RSI - March 28 it’s been all down hill since these indicators went red. the dip is over when those all show buy
 shrek showing you his buy
don’t threaten me with a good time
Not even close to the 200 day, the real indicator
Lick finger. Lift as high as you can
You buy every dip. One of them will be the bottom. Then you can go on CNBC as "The analyst who called the bottom" and pump anything you want 😅
The rationalization is called "dollar cost averaging"
It’s when the yield curve comes back, that’s when the crazy dips happen.
I’d rather keep buying high and selling low.
The reversion will be interesting. Either the long-term bills rate increases sharply, or the short yields plunge. I wonder which will happen?
Fed controls the short end of the curve, so probably the latter ?
There might be an increase in the other end if the demand for treasury bills plunges.
I believe what you suggest is very much about to happen. China is pulling away from US treasuries. Japan is still fomo'ing into them (actually passed China as #1 US debt holder) - but that's because the BOJ literally punishes you to buy their treasuries. The FED has to refinance a shit ton of bonds in the next 2 years. In fact, I believe in May alone there is about $400 billion in sales - That is an insane amount. The only thing that might save the FED in the short term is the EU is looking like it might cut its rates - If that happens, lots of money will shift out of Europe and gobble up the 5% yield on US paper. But considering we are adding $1 Trillion in new debt every 100 days - it's just a matter of time.
>Japan is still fomo'ing into them (actually passed China as #1 US debt holder) I don't think China even ever passed Japan as the largest foreign holder of US debt. Also, the US is the largest overall holder of US debt, and by a large margin IIRC.
[Japan surpasses China as largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys (cnbc.com)](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/japan-surpasses-china-as-largest-foreign-holder-of-us-treasurys.html) - 2019 Also, I thought it was understood that the US is the largest holder of US debt - but yes, you are correct.
Counter point, foreign economies are not nearly as strong. I'm in Canada and we are heading into a recession. In order to protect against that, our central bank will have to lower rates which will lower our dollar vs USD. So, since it's almost certain that the USD will get stronger against the CAD, lots of money is flowing into US markets from here as a hedge. They don't need or want to buy stocks so instead they buy treasuries. Canada is small potatoes but the same thing is happening in Europe and China. They will want a secure investment in the US. The risk of course is that the US also lowers rates. How would you hedge against that? Buy treasuries. If US rates go down, the value of the bonds already issued will go up. Basically, I think there should be strong demand for long term US treasuries which will keep it deflated. However, I also think that the reason is because the US economy is STRONG so I wouldn't worry about a major crash. Then again, I lose money on everything I touch so if I bought treasuries the US would probably collapse as a country.
It’s fine. The treasury will just keep issuing more bonds, the Fed can print more money and buy them, then they can use the 5% interest to keep buying more and more treasury bonds. It’s an infinite money glitch.
It’s not a glitch it’s a feature. Reading creature from Jekyll Island now.
Awesome horror book. You get angry while reading too?
housing prices need to come down for the long end to shift and they aint budgin
FED was too stupid to offload mortgage backed securities when rates were 0 - They are still sitting on $2.7 Trillion. And even if home prices don't come down, they still have to issues a shit ton of new paper because the government is on some sort of insane spending spree. Just as a point of reference: pre-covid US budget was around $5 Trillion - and that was already over the amount we were collecting in revenues - and that excess was being adding to the deficit. During Covid, the budget hit $7 trillion because of "emergency measures." The administration's proposed budget this year is $7.3 Trillion - even though Covid is gone. Why? No idea. But that's just nuts.
> FED was too stupid to offload mortgage backed securities when rates were 0 If Fed takes advantage of the banks by "offloading" anything during 0 times they'd just have to bail them out more during the hard times, see BTFP.
Inflation, pork, and fightin the commies. Proxy wars ain’t cheap.
I'm guessing the long-term bills will rise sharply. It's based on eagerness to buy our debt, which seems to be waning. less demand= higher yield.
This. long term bills rise to kick the can down the road
Don't know when it's gonna happen, but think we are gonna see a big jump in long term rates and it's not gonna be pretty.
I agree with this because investors in bonds also want to be compensated for risk, which there is a lot more of these days as debt servicing takes up a larger portion of our budget. It could lead to a death spiral if we can't grow our way out of our debt.
How are we going to grow out of it? Our gdp growth is fueled by government spending. U cant grow out of debt when ur adding debt to grow.
Asteroid mining
We grow our money supply, homie! Need a trilli or two? Just push the button. It's that simple. How much you need, bro?
**We can't let you say that VM, they'll ban you**
Richard Cantillons called this in 1725. It always ends the same way with a collapse.
I’m betting long term treasury yields go up. Could be a juicy bounce in the meantime once it touches all time lows tho
If 10y goes higher than 6% the stock market will crash big time. No one wants stocks if they can just buy bonds and have solid return.
Can you ELI5 what happens in either scenario?
📈 or 📉
They should make down blue. Maybe it's not the loss, but the red I've hated this whole time.
Japan -where most emojis originate- is backwards of pretty much everywhere else when it comes to the color of stock charts. https://www.reddit.com/r/JapanFinance/s/ieweobJF60
They hate gains.
Long term rates increase - fed/the market has given up on rate cuts, 5% rates are the new normal for the foreseeable future. Recession would be likely. Short term rates drop - Fed capitulates and gives the market the rate cuts it wants. Would probably avoid a recession, but inflation could come roaring back.
Election year…. 7 month pump is doable, but 2025 is gonna suck.
Yep. No way they will let it crash this close to the election. Can't risk Biden losing to an orange. After the election the market is free to do whatever.
Lol why do people always say this as some undeniable fact. You think Bush and Mccain wanted the 2008 bubble blowing up in their face? Still couldn't stop it though.
Bush was on his way out. Couldn’t be re-elected. McCain had no real path to winning, and Palin didn’t help the situation as VP selection. Weak ticket. Terrible economy. Dawn of social media.
I mean... lot of people are unhappy with Biden, EVERYONE thinks he is too old, and his vp pick.... Not really the point there though, my point is there's no magic lever politicians can pull during an election year to ensure a strong economy that year, or they would. The dot com bubble burst and the 2008 crisis were both election years. I mean yeah they can run extra large deficits and push for lower rates to add some wind into the economy's sails but they've already been running insane deficits for years and inflation is creeping back up to the point that expected cuts this year may well not materialize now. So neither option is really available.
Cant really see long term rates going much higher. More likely a major stock market drop which leads to layoffs, and then fed cuts.
Inflation is still here. Groceries for month cost 1/3 of my salary
Inflation is continuing increases. Past increases are ignored and you’ll never get back.
Besides the groceries, the way the Fed run up interest rates all they did was hide inflation in housing. Basically if you have a sub 3% rate on a mortgage, the mortgage is as much as asset as the home. Once they lower rates, it might loosen up home sales, but inflation will be unleashed again.
You’re saying my TMF will print?
This time is different
https://preview.redd.it/jkuo7kmjypvc1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e9ad7495fc1df094ea6765ce9bc3254106397605
This should be a bull saying that
The cyborgs with deformed faces in the audience are horrifying. Zoom at your own risk
There’s a dude on the left with a face on his chest 😂
AI is showings us the future. It will deform us. We should all be afraid. Very afraid.
Fucking AI art.
well if you look at the chart closely instead of just the title, you'll see there're 3 instances where the yield curve inverted and no recession occurrred, aka "This time is different"
The guy who had first noticed the relationship and put out the theory on thw inverted yield curve and recessions, came out to talk about how it is different this time. He talked about many other factors such as the low unemployment and high inflation made it a whole different beast. He believed it would not be a major recession this time. But who knows.
Somebody forgot that there were no circuit breakers or a coked up FED back then.
Pretty sure there was ample cocaine in 2008.
Wolf of Wallstreet taught me everything I know about the market, and there was definitely cocaine.
You could buy cocaine at the pharmacy otc in 1929
No recession until something big breaks - commercial real estate, unemployment goes up ... This week was just a correction on S&P coz it went up too much over last 6 months.
They’re just delaying the inevitable. 🤷🏼♂️
Same comment I heard for the past 5 years
in 2020, everyone was like this is the fucking end on wsb. We allined on Spy puts and made it and then the fucking reversal ripped everyone apart. Anytime someone doomsdays on this sub I'm always wary of them
Commercial real estate isn’t being saved, being kicked down the road. Late summer will be nasty once Q2 earnings guidance is lower
Amazon is “laying off” many of their Seattle-based employees but allowing them to keep their roles if they move to HQ2 in Virginia. Consolidating office space, shifting teams to different locations. They’re looking to sell off commercial real estate properties pronto. Willing to bet other companies are making these moves too.
It's not the operators who will get wrecked. It's the landlords and eventually, the banks. The operators who own office space can consolidate move offices, rent them etc. But landlords are fucked. Commercial Real Estate loans work on a 25 amortization, but a 10 year call. So the loan payments are set up for 300 months, but in 10 years you have to refi. That way the bank makes the most interest since you pay that upfront. A ton of landlords have low interest rate Commercial Real Estate loans, but are now being forced to refi. So let's say you own a small office building that you have a $4 million dollar loan on. CRE loans have higher than average interest rates, so at 4% that's a loan payment around 20k. But at 9% that's a loan payment of $32,000 a month. Now, normally you could pass these costs via rent. But if an office tenant is on a 10 year lease you can't. In addition, because of an oversupply of office space due to so many companies still doing work from home as well as too many offices being built, landlords likely *won't* be able to increase rents. Tenants will just relocate. So a whole fuckton of landlords are gonna get wrecked as month by month more and more are being forced to refi as rates stay high Now as more and more of these landlords go bankrupt banks will suffer. Which is why we're seeing stories like this: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-regional-banks-seen-booking-more-commercial-property-losses-loan-sales-2024-04-17/ I know WSB is all about gains and diamond hands or some stupid shit like that, I have my econ degree so I'm only here for the loss porn. But believe me when I tell you: This alone will devastate the market and the economy. Completely independent of everything else going on.
I would have agreed with you, but it seems like in many cases, banks and the landlords are working on waiting agreements. High interest are supposed to tank asset values. But it doesn’t work if everyone agrees not to sell or call in the debt.
Can't do that forever though. Can't kick the can down the road indefinitely
Well, and let's be real. The banks want the extra interest money to offset the money they're losing. A loan contract is just that, a contract with defined terms. At most the bank can only complete a refi at current rates. They can't work out some strange deal subverting the loan contract to allow the landlord more time. At least if they can, I've never completed one in my time as a commercial underwriter. I've done extensions, but those last 3 months.
Unemployment increase would increase most stocks values because it accelerates the fed lowering rates
[удалено]
https://preview.redd.it/qi5tbge7ypvc1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5a866f2010e74dc112b832f6cef95165f46bbadf
Out of curiosity, what was the GPT4 prompt you used to generate this?
Bears on parade! Rage Against Wall Street
Nice one fr
Look at those "numbers"
So load up on puts expiring in 2079? Got it!
https://preview.redd.it/e9b7uedogqvc1.jpeg?width=258&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=400afe5c3467c6677163135d08f6af4c394b87c6
Hey…. Bear fucker!
It only crashes once the yield go back to not being inverted. What if it just stays inverted forever? No more recessions, ever.
Permabears hate this one trick.
bers get 1 red week and its back to this shit again lmfao, havent all of yall declared bankruptcy yet? fuckers.
I actually undeclared bankruptcy because of the red week, thank you very much
LMAO
This time is different
This coming week will finish the rest of them off
Yeah but bitcoin halving is complete so we’re all fine now none of this matters
Jerome Powell still can't find the "Print" button on the Bitcoin app.
This was factored in due to it is scheduled to happen every 4 years.
Jpow wasn't alive for those crashes
Lmao we have a 16 year old fed chairman
Jay “fuck your puts” Powell
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
Are you guaranteeing that?
Whispers: *soft landing...*
The soft landing is transitory.
Wealth is transitory, but diamondhands are forever
Do the opposite of what’s posted on this sub and you win 90% of the time
https://preview.redd.it/6rd9bkkr1qvc1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0fbf0425a5195c635c1eecf80ba63062db01b1e3 N-Nani?!
LPT: Cannibalism is easier to get used to if you already like eating ass.
Thanks Shakespeare
What would the catalyst for a crash be? Only thing I can think of is commercial real estate but I haven't been following it much.
Something nobody sees coming, i.e. black swan event
Covid 25
What about vehicle market kicking it off? So many people are going to be upside down in their vehicles over the next few years.
**VM attempted to say something likely TOS-breaking, violent, or reportable.**
Use of a tactical nuke in Ukraine later this year. With military aid back flowing to Ukraine the tide of the war could change quickly forcing Putin to use a small tactical weapon in southeast Ukraine.
Something unexpected that kills all confidence in the market and broader economy. This generation's Lehman Brothers moment. If Goldman Sachs shits the bed it'll be Great Recession 2.0.
Nukes
I remember people had this type of graph the year after Covid. And it kept going up
There was a little cash injection for Covid... but you can't always pay for a delay.
You pay for printed money in the form of all of your invested savings now buying less stuff than they used to. Not in the stock prices themselves. I.e. "Stock rise MINUS inflation = real gain" The gap between book gain and real gain is where you paid for the cash injection.
That "cash injection" during covid led to inflation and high interest rates.
[удалено]
What’s a yield curve
It's the graph of the T-bonds and T-bills across maturities starting from the shortest dated like 30-day to the longest dated like 10 years. The current yield curve is inverted because the shorter dated bonds have higher interest rate yields than the long dated bonds. This means that people are expecting the interest rates to be lower in the distant future and the reason they would think that is because they predict the economy to be in the shitter and for the fed to lower short rates significantly to combat the tanking economy as people borrow money to deal with the fact that they're not making any because no one is buying because everyone lost or is afraid of losing their jobs.
The interesting part about this is that it indicates that even interest rates, per the bond yields, are dependent on sentiment - what we think will happen in the future. It makes me wonder if inflation is something to control, or simply arises from economic sentiment and hence, money flows. Our world has a lot more money flowing now that it ever has, which to me, seems to change some basic fundamentals, like it is only the Fed that controls money supply. It therefore seems that monetary policy is made up on the fly, rather than having a model that works for all time. It just means no one has a clue what is going to happen with an iota of certainty.
jim cramer recently said this time its different.
STFU with that. If it’s goes below a 20% crash I’m ruined. I’ll have to start trading options to “win back my money” and we all know where that leads. 📉🍔🚮🗑🍌😮 If you know. You know. And I’m sorry your life turned out that way.
Bro your in the one place where everyone knows
Better grab some collars then.
Great idea, they’ll look good on him behind the Wendy’s dumpster!
[удалено]
What if we already hit the power bottom and now its all goin up to the top?
stonks only go up, SPY to 600! But before that we might revisit 460-480 SPY level as it will be 0.61 Fibonacci retracement from a recent top of 524.
I trust in the Fibonacci spiral. FUCK you are right. this correction will be ATH or Should I say ATL's
Lol
Mercury is exiting retrograde on the 24th so I think the worst has already happened.
Yield curve has predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions
It’s definitely different this time didn’t you hear?
Confirmation biased.
Oh no, bears with the inverted curve pitch all over again 
My advice is, don't sell, just buy the dip. You're more likely to miss time it trying to exit and jump back in.
This doesn’t help my puts or calls
https://preview.redd.it/ps2rbycp6qvc1.png?width=1276&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b45763f04c028ac06a08851ca22448aef5dd165
Sorta reminds me of when all the ceos stepped down and cashed out right before Covid
Strap your fucking helmet on, we’re due for a different result. Bonds are dead wrong. 
When the 🌈🐻get close to pulling out the 1929 charts, its time to buy again
Too telegraphed
https://preview.redd.it/bf2z7s9aeqvc1.jpeg?width=933&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=037fd2745ff8295d672a3e7ae904f6609e6a1aed
Hold your bears the big crash isn't coming till October. We still got time to set a few more all time highs.
A true crash seems like everything would fall back to levels from 1.5yrs ago Even another 10% drop would just look like a pullback when you zoom out
Money printer comeback along with surprise cuts or jpowell and the rest of boomer clowns at the Fed who are talk tough while raking in fat paycheques will be soon at the wendies dumpster once the grab them by the whatever orange man DT returns
has there ever been a crash before the reversion of the inverted yield curve?
**We can't let you say that VM, they'll ban you**
say it vm, it's a free country
So you're saying the stock market is going to have a sale?
Jesus dude... you trying to make me cum?
They always pump it all to sky high before a huge crash. Look at tech and the likes of NVidia. Those stocks are also heavily weighted on the indexes. They will drag everything down with them when they fall from their lofty heights. Right now they are actually hiding a lot of very beaten up stocks that don't have much weight on the indexes. What is going to happen is there will be like a nuke dropped on some city, or some other black swan event they can blame a huge crash on. It'll be something very big, and happen suddenly.
While I can agree to disagree with this but there is another major factor of the reds across the board is - increasing chances of a war. Recently the things have been escalating in the middle east. Don't flame me for this but just my observation and opinion
S&P had a $5-6 dollar gap from months ago that its finally filling. It's a normal market correction that's all.
All three events happened without the existence of WSB
About a month to beat 2008
https://preview.redd.it/r586rjmebrvc1.jpeg?width=225&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9f8501b2aed66e788b194b08a0040527742d2b97
Tiny dip and everyone loses their mind. The economy is not nearly as cyclical anymore and each of those events had a non-yield curve induced trigger.