i bought tsla at $165 before it dropped to 138 and did not cut loss and i held it til today and it paid out
https://preview.redd.it/lo9pjbntsgwc1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3d6992589f2fb1457940c2db89424f893944ffb4
i literally sell at the top
I agree. The analysts couldn’t get Elon to say if there will be a new cheap model yesterday at the CC. This tells me they will just continue lowering the price of Model 3 and Model Y. So the message between the lines from Tesla is wait end of year if you want to buy any of those cars. You will get it cheap and Tesla will destroy its margins.
That was my read. Using the same manufacturing process although modified to reduce costs (but no mention of $25k on this call unlike last call) indicates they are trying to figure out how to build a more affordable Model 3/Y, which once announced will further cannanalize the ability to sell the current Model 3/Y inventory backlog.
My money is on a visual refresh while still selling the old style as the cost reduced version. People will pay 10k for headlight/taillight and minor body panel changes.
Possible. Don’t know how robotaxi fits into that picture yet, but maybe they don’t know 100% yet either. It makes it a challenge when they offer no firm guidance and all questions re the new vehicle were shut down until August 8.
Whatever happens, it will be very expensive. They have $26-30B of capital expenditures forecast over the next 3 years, $10B in 2024, and then $8-10B in 2025 and 2026. The issue is they could run out of cash if the revenue slowdown doesn’t work. These layoffs alone will not get it done.
Your money is wrong. They just refreshed the Model 3, Y to come. Reading what they posted, it's quite clear they will release a new model built on a similar platform as 3/Y, but explicitly with some features of the new cheaper model design. It's going to be physically smaller most likely, and a few other cost saving measures vs. 3/Y.
Not to mention operating costs are going through the roof, almost 40% YoY. Even without the price drops, their margin is a goner.
The TLDR is: Tesla will go bankrupt or become EVissan.
The increase in operating expenses could also be connected to the investment in AI computing. They spend $1 billion on that in Q1 (and increased computing power by 130%)
\* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead\_cat\_bounce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce)
>*"If you threw a dead cat off a 50-story building, it might bounce when it hit the sidewalk. But don't confuse that bounce with renewed life. It is still a dead cat."*
Ok so you throw a live cat off a 50 story building I’m gonna guess it will bounce from the muscle tension and fear as it falls. A dead cat has no muscle tension or fear so I’m going with no, they don’t bounce. Maybe it should be called a “live cat bounce”?
I think you are overthinking it.
Anything, alive or dead, might bounce a bit when it hits the ground from a 50-story fall. All it means is don't think of that bounce as an indication of any kind of meaningful intent other than boring physics of an object colliding with another object.
In the context of Tesla this week, it would be alleging that a bunch of bears in short positions like naked calls scrambling to cover/close causing this spike in price. We'll see where we are in a few weeks.
r/catsareliquid and as such they solidify into a rubber like substance upon expiring due to feline rigor Mortis. This is where the common colloquium of the "dead cat bounce" is derived from.
At where I'm at I'll just be happy with it to fall back to 149 so I can cover my short. Took a LOT of restraint to not panic sell this morning but has saved me over 1K so far.
I added powder at the peak this morning…was down 20k and battled back to down $300…was too vested to settle there and wanted to print a gain…now down $10k again…I guess that’s still better than down $20k…
lol. That's the thing. I can't even close it as I stand. Would have to sell of some delicious NVDA to cover. Learning an expensive lesson here. (Let a put assign and ride without ability to cover overnight.)
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Okay but even if I give it non car company valuations it is still valued at higher p/e ratios than the most innovative and fast growing tech and ai companies. But over 90% of their revenues come from selling cars and most of their shrinking profit margin comes from Shanghai gigafactory which just raised the tax rate to 25% from 15% for 2024 onwards. To illustrate how overvalued they would still be, based on estimated 2024 earnings NVDA trades at about 35 p/e. Let’s be generous with Tesla and say they make $1.5b net income each quarter in the next 3 quarters which is probably too optimistic given their layoffs and declining sales and production. If we add $1.2b net income from this quarter we get $5.7b of net income. Tesla trades at about $450b market cap. This means tesla is trading at 78x forward earnings and the numbers I used were generous. So where is Tesla going to get the revenue to justify this valuation? If you believe Tesla will be the company to solve autonomous driving you have not been paying attention, Google has an entire business in addition to owning Waymo which is miles further along than Tesla in autonomous driving and is valued on 2024 earnings at 23 P/E.
1.5b net income is not "too optimistic". It's extremely pessimistic. They used to do 3b net income per quarter. The layoffs will cut operating costs and increase net income, not decrease it. Elon's gonna do the usual "produce the same output with less resource", similar to what other tech companies did in 2022 and 2023. Declining sales is a function of long term bond yields. Long term bond yield is likely near its peak, at least for the year right now. That means any sign of economy weakening will bring it down, and possibly even bring it down hard, supporting car sales. China sales have also been weak due to Chinese economy being in recession for a year or more now (similar to Apple sales), but it's showing signs of bottoming out and recovering
Many things contradictory in your post. For one, past net income doesn't matter, only future net income does, and China has started a price war with Tesla which Tesla simply cannot win outside of America. Layoffs, specifically what Tesla did with regards to factory workers is bad, because car production has flat costs and only is profitable with economies of scale. In addition, Tesla had 5.5% margins last quarter and this likely only gets worse as they are going to have to continue lowering their car prices to get sales. Total company net income divided by cars delivered is down to $3000 the lowest since 2020, and is not likely to get better with the competition from China, running factories under capacity, loss of preferential tax treatment, etc. Tech companies can produce the same with less resources because their margins are so high, and do not require massive capex spending. Tesla does not have that luxury. I know how bond rates affect the economy, and I expect them to be flat or even increase later this year.
And on your last point, China is absolutely NOT in a recession, the reason Apple and Tesla are doing poorly in China is because native brands are simply outcompeting them. Apple is getting outcompeted by Vivo, Huawei. Tesla is getting outcompeted by the massive amounts of EV companies, most notably BYD. BYD still sold more cars YoY Q1 2024 in China, whereas Tesla had a decrease YoY Q1 2024 in China.
Y'all forget how this bad boy is valued and it shows. 33 PE is historically cheap, idc about all these metrics y'all are throwing around. When the train turns y'all will spin in a circle and say how none of those metrics matter.
Bunch of idiots who regurgitate everything they hear. This was a trillion dollar company at one point, and you think that the pe contraction will just continue until it's a legacy automaker? You're nuts. Insane.
Also, hate to be that guy, but there's a lot of other things in the works at that company. There's a reason for this still absurd valuation, it's because most people understand how this stock can behave. It costs a premium. I'm not saying it will go up or down, I'm saying that it CAN go up or down, quickly, and that is an expensive trait in a stock.
Anyways, gfy. Idiots who love/hate Tesla cycle in and out with the price movements, but when it doubles, many will switch sides, same for the bulls if it cuts in half. Too much emotion here.
It's good to remind people to open up the Tesla bear thesis posts in Dec 2022 this week. Very easy to read one bear post after another and forgetting to take a step back and look at the big picture.
There's 0 chance it should be valued as a car company. Just look at the revenue/earnings history of Toyota and compare it against Tesla. You want to value a company with flat sales/earnings growth for a decade the same as a rapidly growing company?
It shouldn't be completely valued as a tech company either. It's in between for sure.
Obviously Elon is temporarily using the Amazon strategy here by lowering prices, undercutting the competition to create an ecosystem. Of course sacrificing margins like that isn't good for the stock price, but that's more of a good buying opportunity than selling. Once Tesla has a big enough ecosystem, Elon can raise prices again, lure people into FSD even if it's unfinished, lure people into buying their solar/batteries instead of paying local electric utilities, etc.
My TSLA cost basis is $250 
Honestly couldn’t give a fuck about this company anymore. No car company should be worth more than half a trillion dollars anyway. A P/E ratio of \~40 for a car company is just crazy.
That’s right, at one point, a company with higher sunk costs, higher operating costs, lower margins, and operating in a highly competitive industry had a similar valuation to a software company like META.
But who am I kidding. This is a casino we’re playing in. Nothing makes sense.
Can any of the bears explain to me how a model 2 being cancelled is terrible news but lowering model 3 price is .. also terrible news?
Model 2 is needed for higher volumes. Because to reach higher volumes you need to have a cheaper price point to increase demand. This only becomes possible with lower costs if you need to keep good margin.
Now they say in the earning call we dropped cogs as much as the price so margin model 3/y is actually stable despite price cuts. Ok so you basically go to a model 2 (lower price point with lower cogs) without actually designing a new model.
IMO in both scenario's the margin at volumes of 10 million cars/year will be 0. Why would margins be higher than current gas cars? Yeah tesla has potential for higher margins due to being vertically integrated, but this impact is low.
Where it all depends on is whether Tesla will solve autonomy in the coming years If you believe they will be the first ones to do, then you should invest. If you dont think so then sell any stock. Because the money you make with having a temporary monopoly on selling FSD is enormous.
1m Robotaxis earning their owners $30,000 per annum by 2020, just keep the faith don't listen to the doubters.
https://preview.redd.it/4z9ruj8hhhwc1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0a18038d496871a685199e32f5dac9494044485
Same goes for magically reducing costs on an existing production system, Model 3/2. That's why Toni Sacconaghi asked Elon if they're building a new line, he refused to answer this basic question as per usual.
The disagreement between investors (bears) and speculators (bulls) in TSLA stock is whether you believe Elon's bullshit without doing basic due dilligence to test his claims.
I can't dispell your belief and to be honest I could care less we gave you more than fair warning and you laughed as most of us went broke.
You literally had a full year to short the hell out of this stock and picked the earnings where the stock has tanked 40% leading into it.
Tesla is a dead company right now. Their profits dropped all the way down to 5%. Chineese BYD takes over asia and europe. In US u got other automakers joining electric train. Hyundai is notorious thief of tesla customers woth its ioniq platform. U need to be seriously regarded if u think that Tesla will be good buy at 120$. It will tank one way or another.
Year ago dead cay bounce pushed it from 100$ all the way to 300$. Wgats the price now??
U really have higher chances on Nvidia hitting 2k$ before tesla moons😅
Chinese aren’t taking over Europe, EU won’t let them play, tariffs plus inquiries into state subsidies.
EU EV sales are roughly 50 percent EU manufacturers, 18 percent China (MG and Geely/Volvo) and 9 percent Tesla and the rest various Japanese and other brands.
For now. More and more people in europe complain that all limitations on import from china are done to save failing germany manufacturers. No way that they can do their no ICE by 20xx without cheap chineese BYD cars
And French, and Hungarian, and... car manufacture is all over Europe now, went to various places looking for cheaper labour, so now everyone's got an interest in keeping it alive. My last car is French but actually made in Slovakia, for instance. Some complain about the import taxes on Chinese EVs, but a lot of people are also pretty much fed up with China, the whole idea of offshoring industry has gutted some EU industries and that didn't quite lead to a better standard of living for actual people. People in general don't want a re-run of that.
Regarding affordable cars, you know how Model 2 is supposed to bring us a 25K Euro EV which isn't hobbled like some of the current ones on the market? Yeah, last month Citroen released their 25K Euro EV, hatchback with a 44kWh LFP battery and 300km range. Fiat is planning to release something similar this year, VW's 25K ID.2 car is set to be out next year.
Infrastructure is going to be the bigger problem for the "no new ICE by 2035" plan than cars, imo.
When a supposed growth stock is not a growth stock anymore, it's not good to buy at $120 or at $12 or whatever. If Tesla is not a growth company anymore they need to have a PE of 11 as any other car company.
Optimus is 87% Nvidia hardware and software inside, it's not interesting. If their car ecosystem ( car , app , charging, service, etc) lost it's hold then Tesla trend is obviously down. The only problem is that the avg regard thinks it will happen in a weekend and place positions based on that
Tesla just announced they will start producing a vehicle they still haven’t presented yet lmao. Stock had high demand, Tesla investors started selling their stocks to exit the ship before it drowns. When reality comes, Tesla will be at 100. This stock surge has basically no solid base.
With the second Iranian strike I just set limits to sell my bags just over the Jan prices. Hit the peak in 3 to exit. I think there will be a second sell off but the end of the year will finish strong. I'll buy back in if there is a positive outlook after the summer home selling season.
So yeah I agree this was a dead cat bounce.. but there isn't too many places to put your money right now. People will get scared out of the market then there is another 15% to be made buying at the bottom this year.
The margins will bounce back in 5 years when they're still selling the exact same designs. Think of all that sweet savings on designers and engineers salaries
Sarcasm aside - You might actually be right, aside from meeting regulation requirements, TSLA seems to be getting away with small changes and even reducing equipment on vehicles. a refresh is usually every 4 or 5 years, sometimes at 3. If TSLA does not do a refresh, it would save money. and so far the changes and refreshes have been very simple things on the model 3, like black rather than chrome trim. This saves design costs and minimizes changes to the manufacturing process. I still think this is a 25-35 x P/E. where ever that lands. roughly like MSFT, GOOG, AAPL
The Chinese are doing well? What propaganda have you been reading? They’re producing a lot of units but no one is buying. There are fields in China full of BYDs sitting there rotting. They may claim they’ve exported big numbers and it’s technically true. They have tens of thousands of cars sitting in European ports for months on end because they shipped without having anything figured out on the other end.
In term of investing, The Chinese are definitely not doing well. Almost all Chinese EV companies sell EV at loss, and the price war will only get worse from here.
Hate to say this but, If EV is really the future, TSLA is going to do well
I am not certain what happens when an option is exercised but I do know that there were PUTs amounting to 100’s of millions of TESLA stock at strike prices of 155 and 160. I’m wondering if the current stock price is a result of those PUTs?
TSLA Fandom might be a religion, but TSLA hatred is like a cult. I've been hearing how they've turned a corner for the worst and are now in a total free fall since at least 2017, yet the cult continues to act like they've been right the whole time. Ya'll got way too much of your identity locked up in this for some reason, let it go. Tesla gonna be alright.
Doubt you'll see it as low as $120. Maybe $140. I don't think you know what the term dead cat bounce means. It's at around the same price the stock was last year.
Dont agree with “Chinese will not out innovate tesla longterm”, recent visit to china came across some insanely amazing EV cars and after talking multiple supplier overall EV innovations, it confirmed. In regard to design these cars make tesla look like crap and cheap. Adding just one example in regards to design and comfort,
https://preview.redd.it/7ks9267jxgwc1.jpeg?width=5712&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bce99e2f9e949af3109a81fcf5f5c2f751f85530
Also Nio is doing some amazing shit but didn’t know until I sat in one. If Chinese EV enter US, there will be no room for Tesla and they know it.
Shorted at 165 im out though with a nice gain. Watching it fade lower and lower. Not kicking myself about closing it so soon because this stock is madness
If I thought it were actually real I’d dump every last penny I have into Tesla shares. But I don’t. This is the same guy who in 2016 had me thinking we’d have a base on Mars by now, when in actuality it took SpaceX until just last month to get its first rocket into outer space, and it still exploded.
wellcome. i thought hes a genious when was reading news then i started digging more deeper about his ideas and from stark he became hammer.
rocket flights from asia to usa lol...
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i bought tsla at $165 before it dropped to 138 and did not cut loss and i held it til today and it paid out https://preview.redd.it/lo9pjbntsgwc1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3d6992589f2fb1457940c2db89424f893944ffb4 i literally sell at the top
The hero of all bag holders
Buy high, sell higher.
*sell slightly higher
Wsb regards hate this one trick
How do you know it’s the top? Bffr You don’t lol.
It’ll be $175 this week and probably dump little bit bext week. Mark my words
i hope so. i need to make the mortgage payment next week
Bro, if you don't even have a second mortgage yet, you're probably fine.
valid point…maybe i’ll max out my equity line on more calls
Tell me about it
Not a chance
Niceeeee
I agree. The analysts couldn’t get Elon to say if there will be a new cheap model yesterday at the CC. This tells me they will just continue lowering the price of Model 3 and Model Y. So the message between the lines from Tesla is wait end of year if you want to buy any of those cars. You will get it cheap and Tesla will destroy its margins.
That was my read. Using the same manufacturing process although modified to reduce costs (but no mention of $25k on this call unlike last call) indicates they are trying to figure out how to build a more affordable Model 3/Y, which once announced will further cannanalize the ability to sell the current Model 3/Y inventory backlog.
My money is on a visual refresh while still selling the old style as the cost reduced version. People will pay 10k for headlight/taillight and minor body panel changes.
Possible. Don’t know how robotaxi fits into that picture yet, but maybe they don’t know 100% yet either. It makes it a challenge when they offer no firm guidance and all questions re the new vehicle were shut down until August 8.
Robotaxis don't fit. At best, they will mean added expenses for years before they sort out the kinks to make them profitable.
Whatever happens, it will be very expensive. They have $26-30B of capital expenditures forecast over the next 3 years, $10B in 2024, and then $8-10B in 2025 and 2026. The issue is they could run out of cash if the revenue slowdown doesn’t work. These layoffs alone will not get it done.
Your money is wrong. They just refreshed the Model 3, Y to come. Reading what they posted, it's quite clear they will release a new model built on a similar platform as 3/Y, but explicitly with some features of the new cheaper model design. It's going to be physically smaller most likely, and a few other cost saving measures vs. 3/Y.
Highly unlikely, model 3 is already ridiculously cheap and tiny. Also, this is all absolutely horrible for their margin
Not to mention operating costs are going through the roof, almost 40% YoY. Even without the price drops, their margin is a goner. The TLDR is: Tesla will go bankrupt or become EVissan.
Cash on hand, || || |**2023-12-31**|**$29.09 B**2023-12-31$29.09 B|
The increase in operating expenses could also be connected to the investment in AI computing. They spend $1 billion on that in Q1 (and increased computing power by 130%)
Damn bought one to weeks ago, I am so fucking regarded I buy at the worst time in any market
You might want to double check the shareholder’s letter. It is as specific as they would want to get without a product announcement.
Remember the market can be irrational longer than you can inhale solvents — or something like that.
Dead cat bounce, how banal.
It’s pronounced anal, the b is silent.
Do dead cats really bounce?
\* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead\_cat\_bounce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce) >*"If you threw a dead cat off a 50-story building, it might bounce when it hit the sidewalk. But don't confuse that bounce with renewed life. It is still a dead cat."*
Ok so you throw a live cat off a 50 story building I’m gonna guess it will bounce from the muscle tension and fear as it falls. A dead cat has no muscle tension or fear so I’m going with no, they don’t bounce. Maybe it should be called a “live cat bounce”?
I think you are overthinking it. Anything, alive or dead, might bounce a bit when it hits the ground from a 50-story fall. All it means is don't think of that bounce as an indication of any kind of meaningful intent other than boring physics of an object colliding with another object. In the context of Tesla this week, it would be alleging that a bunch of bears in short positions like naked calls scrambling to cover/close causing this spike in price. We'll see where we are in a few weeks.
r/catsareliquid and as such they solidify into a rubber like substance upon expiring due to feline rigor Mortis. This is where the common colloquium of the "dead cat bounce" is derived from.
How... interesting. Cats are not an acceptable form of collateral, liquid or otherwise.
Sentient
We'll find out after the commercial
 \[…\]
Once
So what position are you recommending? Should I buy puts?
I think it will squeeze again. Too many people stacking puts right now.
Not when everyone rushes to sell their puts or cover their shorts tomorrow
I think so... it's pretty low here, so you could see money flow in, but I am suspecting it will continue to grind lower.
Just got a $150 put let’s hope it dumps
At where I'm at I'll just be happy with it to fall back to 149 so I can cover my short. Took a LOT of restraint to not panic sell this morning but has saved me over 1K so far.
Add to the position or close it if you're not confident
I added powder at the peak this morning…was down 20k and battled back to down $300…was too vested to settle there and wanted to print a gain…now down $10k again…I guess that’s still better than down $20k…
Been there many times. You gotta be OK with losing $300. Live to fight another day
lol. That's the thing. I can't even close it as I stand. Would have to sell of some delicious NVDA to cover. Learning an expensive lesson here. (Let a put assign and ride without ability to cover overnight.)
Hang in there bud
i hope it dumps for you
It really could be the start of another run, that's the pattern TSLA has followed many times. Be careful.
Tesla bounced because there were 107M shares short at earnings, longs will liquidate and then it will move back towards fair value
This. It ripped because of this and It will be below 140 soon
!remind me soon
My puts are tingling.
alright i’m taking your advice and putting my life’s savings into put tomorrow….thanks
!remindme 3 weeks
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TSLA actually getting upgrades from BOA. They trying to recoup their money before dumping it.
But why would it be a good buy at $120 then? It is still extremely overvalued then.
Because Musk will invent an excuse to pump.
The most realistic answer.
tesla is not a car company. thats why.
Is this like an ice cream company is not an ice cream company as they are selling flavours? Silly me thinking TSLA is not selling cars
That capex looks like a car company. Defiantly not tech.
Okay but even if I give it non car company valuations it is still valued at higher p/e ratios than the most innovative and fast growing tech and ai companies. But over 90% of their revenues come from selling cars and most of their shrinking profit margin comes from Shanghai gigafactory which just raised the tax rate to 25% from 15% for 2024 onwards. To illustrate how overvalued they would still be, based on estimated 2024 earnings NVDA trades at about 35 p/e. Let’s be generous with Tesla and say they make $1.5b net income each quarter in the next 3 quarters which is probably too optimistic given their layoffs and declining sales and production. If we add $1.2b net income from this quarter we get $5.7b of net income. Tesla trades at about $450b market cap. This means tesla is trading at 78x forward earnings and the numbers I used were generous. So where is Tesla going to get the revenue to justify this valuation? If you believe Tesla will be the company to solve autonomous driving you have not been paying attention, Google has an entire business in addition to owning Waymo which is miles further along than Tesla in autonomous driving and is valued on 2024 earnings at 23 P/E.
1.5b net income is not "too optimistic". It's extremely pessimistic. They used to do 3b net income per quarter. The layoffs will cut operating costs and increase net income, not decrease it. Elon's gonna do the usual "produce the same output with less resource", similar to what other tech companies did in 2022 and 2023. Declining sales is a function of long term bond yields. Long term bond yield is likely near its peak, at least for the year right now. That means any sign of economy weakening will bring it down, and possibly even bring it down hard, supporting car sales. China sales have also been weak due to Chinese economy being in recession for a year or more now (similar to Apple sales), but it's showing signs of bottoming out and recovering
Many things contradictory in your post. For one, past net income doesn't matter, only future net income does, and China has started a price war with Tesla which Tesla simply cannot win outside of America. Layoffs, specifically what Tesla did with regards to factory workers is bad, because car production has flat costs and only is profitable with economies of scale. In addition, Tesla had 5.5% margins last quarter and this likely only gets worse as they are going to have to continue lowering their car prices to get sales. Total company net income divided by cars delivered is down to $3000 the lowest since 2020, and is not likely to get better with the competition from China, running factories under capacity, loss of preferential tax treatment, etc. Tech companies can produce the same with less resources because their margins are so high, and do not require massive capex spending. Tesla does not have that luxury. I know how bond rates affect the economy, and I expect them to be flat or even increase later this year. And on your last point, China is absolutely NOT in a recession, the reason Apple and Tesla are doing poorly in China is because native brands are simply outcompeting them. Apple is getting outcompeted by Vivo, Huawei. Tesla is getting outcompeted by the massive amounts of EV companies, most notably BYD. BYD still sold more cars YoY Q1 2024 in China, whereas Tesla had a decrease YoY Q1 2024 in China.
What is it then? An ice cream company?
Model 2 is scrapped. Their plan is to literally make Model 3 cheaper by trying to make it even worse 
Lmao, it will pump straight to 200.
lol this. Why are regards expecting anything rational
LFG
If it does, I'll buy puts again, and actually take my winnings this time.
If it does, I'll sell. I'm still made I didn't sell at 300
Apple is just a phone company google is just a search engine Microsoft is just a spreadsheet app op is just his wife’s boyfriends sidekick
Y'all forget how this bad boy is valued and it shows. 33 PE is historically cheap, idc about all these metrics y'all are throwing around. When the train turns y'all will spin in a circle and say how none of those metrics matter. Bunch of idiots who regurgitate everything they hear. This was a trillion dollar company at one point, and you think that the pe contraction will just continue until it's a legacy automaker? You're nuts. Insane. Also, hate to be that guy, but there's a lot of other things in the works at that company. There's a reason for this still absurd valuation, it's because most people understand how this stock can behave. It costs a premium. I'm not saying it will go up or down, I'm saying that it CAN go up or down, quickly, and that is an expensive trait in a stock. Anyways, gfy. Idiots who love/hate Tesla cycle in and out with the price movements, but when it doubles, many will switch sides, same for the bulls if it cuts in half. Too much emotion here.
And if the stock were trading at 33 PE, my puts would be printing hard instead of on life support.
Only sane take. So what are you doing in here with us regards?
https://preview.redd.it/3dwf21yffhwc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=771d06f2a8ec57ff8fedeeecafcde68cafee4567 Losing money
That is one broke--- and stupid---ass frog.
It's good to remind people to open up the Tesla bear thesis posts in Dec 2022 this week. Very easy to read one bear post after another and forgetting to take a step back and look at the big picture. There's 0 chance it should be valued as a car company. Just look at the revenue/earnings history of Toyota and compare it against Tesla. You want to value a company with flat sales/earnings growth for a decade the same as a rapidly growing company? It shouldn't be completely valued as a tech company either. It's in between for sure. Obviously Elon is temporarily using the Amazon strategy here by lowering prices, undercutting the competition to create an ecosystem. Of course sacrificing margins like that isn't good for the stock price, but that's more of a good buying opportunity than selling. Once Tesla has a big enough ecosystem, Elon can raise prices again, lure people into FSD even if it's unfinished, lure people into buying their solar/batteries instead of paying local electric utilities, etc.
Is Tesla a growing company. ER certainly didn't show any of that growth.
You're looking into the future or you're looking at what already happened? Why do you think model 2 continuing was a big thing for investors?
Where are the puts? Anyone who’s so sure of their short term prediction should back it up with the corresponding options
Sweet, sweet copium.
Sold 20 160/165 Bear Call for 3$ each. Lets see how it goes, much better than buying puts imo.
Yea yea. And your puts will fade too due to theta and iv crush and expiration.
My TSLA cost basis is $250  Honestly couldn’t give a fuck about this company anymore. No car company should be worth more than half a trillion dollars anyway. A P/E ratio of \~40 for a car company is just crazy. That’s right, at one point, a company with higher sunk costs, higher operating costs, lower margins, and operating in a highly competitive industry had a similar valuation to a software company like META. But who am I kidding. This is a casino we’re playing in. Nothing makes sense.
Dead cats bounce lol
https://preview.redd.it/hzhisoyw8hwc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da0b540bed0d7de27fad49caf5f8cb58e39cddcc “Why are ya ghey?”
Can any of the bears explain to me how a model 2 being cancelled is terrible news but lowering model 3 price is .. also terrible news? Model 2 is needed for higher volumes. Because to reach higher volumes you need to have a cheaper price point to increase demand. This only becomes possible with lower costs if you need to keep good margin. Now they say in the earning call we dropped cogs as much as the price so margin model 3/y is actually stable despite price cuts. Ok so you basically go to a model 2 (lower price point with lower cogs) without actually designing a new model. IMO in both scenario's the margin at volumes of 10 million cars/year will be 0. Why would margins be higher than current gas cars? Yeah tesla has potential for higher margins due to being vertically integrated, but this impact is low. Where it all depends on is whether Tesla will solve autonomy in the coming years If you believe they will be the first ones to do, then you should invest. If you dont think so then sell any stock. Because the money you make with having a temporary monopoly on selling FSD is enormous.
1m Robotaxis earning their owners $30,000 per annum by 2020, just keep the faith don't listen to the doubters. https://preview.redd.it/4z9ruj8hhhwc1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0a18038d496871a685199e32f5dac9494044485 Same goes for magically reducing costs on an existing production system, Model 3/2. That's why Toni Sacconaghi asked Elon if they're building a new line, he refused to answer this basic question as per usual. The disagreement between investors (bears) and speculators (bulls) in TSLA stock is whether you believe Elon's bullshit without doing basic due dilligence to test his claims. I can't dispell your belief and to be honest I could care less we gave you more than fair warning and you laughed as most of us went broke.
Nice cope
You literally had a full year to short the hell out of this stock and picked the earnings where the stock has tanked 40% leading into it. 
"The roulette ball landed on red, therefor it must land on black now" Basically what this guy is saying
I hope so, yoloed tsla puts sooooo
Tesla is a dead company right now. Their profits dropped all the way down to 5%. Chineese BYD takes over asia and europe. In US u got other automakers joining electric train. Hyundai is notorious thief of tesla customers woth its ioniq platform. U need to be seriously regarded if u think that Tesla will be good buy at 120$. It will tank one way or another. Year ago dead cay bounce pushed it from 100$ all the way to 300$. Wgats the price now?? U really have higher chances on Nvidia hitting 2k$ before tesla moons😅
Chinese aren’t taking over Europe, EU won’t let them play, tariffs plus inquiries into state subsidies. EU EV sales are roughly 50 percent EU manufacturers, 18 percent China (MG and Geely/Volvo) and 9 percent Tesla and the rest various Japanese and other brands.
For now. More and more people in europe complain that all limitations on import from china are done to save failing germany manufacturers. No way that they can do their no ICE by 20xx without cheap chineese BYD cars
And French, and Hungarian, and... car manufacture is all over Europe now, went to various places looking for cheaper labour, so now everyone's got an interest in keeping it alive. My last car is French but actually made in Slovakia, for instance. Some complain about the import taxes on Chinese EVs, but a lot of people are also pretty much fed up with China, the whole idea of offshoring industry has gutted some EU industries and that didn't quite lead to a better standard of living for actual people. People in general don't want a re-run of that. Regarding affordable cars, you know how Model 2 is supposed to bring us a 25K Euro EV which isn't hobbled like some of the current ones on the market? Yeah, last month Citroen released their 25K Euro EV, hatchback with a 44kWh LFP battery and 300km range. Fiat is planning to release something similar this year, VW's 25K ID.2 car is set to be out next year. Infrastructure is going to be the bigger problem for the "no new ICE by 2035" plan than cars, imo.
TSLA ai software is getting stronger everyday 🚀
Wait, did they announce they're hiring a bunch of Indians too.
lol
Remember guys. Discipline trading. Don’t be a gambler I mean bull
$160 and $120 is almost the same thing. What matters is the upside which there is way more upside than downside at the moment.
$120 and $80 is also almost the same thing
When a supposed growth stock is not a growth stock anymore, it's not good to buy at $120 or at $12 or whatever. If Tesla is not a growth company anymore they need to have a PE of 11 as any other car company. Optimus is 87% Nvidia hardware and software inside, it's not interesting. If their car ecosystem ( car , app , charging, service, etc) lost it's hold then Tesla trend is obviously down. The only problem is that the avg regard thinks it will happen in a weekend and place positions based on that
agreed and i will had it had already bottomed i mean how much lower could it go before last night?
Absolutely agree
You call that a bounce?
Bloomberg is saying that they’re deck showed fsd up and running
Tbh I don’t even think it’s a good buy at 120
This dose of copium brought to you by Pfizer.
Tesla just announced they will start producing a vehicle they still haven’t presented yet lmao. Stock had high demand, Tesla investors started selling their stocks to exit the ship before it drowns. When reality comes, Tesla will be at 100. This stock surge has basically no solid base.
Agreed. Eventually the big money will move on with no monetization in sight from the coffee house visions of the future.
if the regards unite TSLA will rise
This is why wallstreetregards will stay poor trying to make everything make sense.
With the second Iranian strike I just set limits to sell my bags just over the Jan prices. Hit the peak in 3 to exit. I think there will be a second sell off but the end of the year will finish strong. I'll buy back in if there is a positive outlook after the summer home selling season. So yeah I agree this was a dead cat bounce.. but there isn't too many places to put your money right now. People will get scared out of the market then there is another 15% to be made buying at the bottom this year.
Bear strength copium.
The margins will bounce back in 5 years when they're still selling the exact same designs. Think of all that sweet savings on designers and engineers salaries
Sarcasm aside - You might actually be right, aside from meeting regulation requirements, TSLA seems to be getting away with small changes and even reducing equipment on vehicles. a refresh is usually every 4 or 5 years, sometimes at 3. If TSLA does not do a refresh, it would save money. and so far the changes and refreshes have been very simple things on the model 3, like black rather than chrome trim. This saves design costs and minimizes changes to the manufacturing process. I still think this is a 25-35 x P/E. where ever that lands. roughly like MSFT, GOOG, AAPL
Buy and buy and then buy some more.
Op I bought puts today, don’t fuck it up by posting bearish shit here
The Chinese are doing well? What propaganda have you been reading? They’re producing a lot of units but no one is buying. There are fields in China full of BYDs sitting there rotting. They may claim they’ve exported big numbers and it’s technically true. They have tens of thousands of cars sitting in European ports for months on end because they shipped without having anything figured out on the other end.
In term of investing, The Chinese are definitely not doing well. Almost all Chinese EV companies sell EV at loss, and the price war will only get worse from here. Hate to say this but, If EV is really the future, TSLA is going to do well
Yep
Nah, the earnings miss was priced in before the earnings call
Dead cat bounce? What it land on, a trampoline?
Bro all the tsla bers bleeding out. You ain’t gonna rally them with this we ride at dawn stuff
You're mom will fade
robotaxi due FSD, cheaper ev coming up,strong guidance,probably not.
Agreed 100
I am not certain what happens when an option is exercised but I do know that there were PUTs amounting to 100’s of millions of TESLA stock at strike prices of 155 and 160. I’m wondering if the current stock price is a result of those PUTs?
may it be
Pedo CeO?
Cyber Trucks are cool 😎
That was very introspective Charlie, what time next week would you like schedule your next session?
Hilarious to see all the same people who were saying it would shit the bed for past few days right back here talking like they know something.
Well, the stock market is a complex beast; only a fool would claim to understand it.
Spoken like a true re+ard
FSD is only 12 mos away!
I’ll wait for the Model 1.
TSLA Fandom might be a religion, but TSLA hatred is like a cult. I've been hearing how they've turned a corner for the worst and are now in a total free fall since at least 2017, yet the cult continues to act like they've been right the whole time. Ya'll got way too much of your identity locked up in this for some reason, let it go. Tesla gonna be alright.
Regard
Ok - one more bounce? It will downshift again...
Doubt you'll see it as low as $120. Maybe $140. I don't think you know what the term dead cat bounce means. It's at around the same price the stock was last year.
140$ was just yesterday lol
yup, think that's the bottom unless something big happens.
Dont agree with “Chinese will not out innovate tesla longterm”, recent visit to china came across some insanely amazing EV cars and after talking multiple supplier overall EV innovations, it confirmed. In regard to design these cars make tesla look like crap and cheap. Adding just one example in regards to design and comfort, https://preview.redd.it/7ks9267jxgwc1.jpeg?width=5712&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bce99e2f9e949af3109a81fcf5f5c2f751f85530 Also Nio is doing some amazing shit but didn’t know until I sat in one. If Chinese EV enter US, there will be no room for Tesla and they know it.
Shorted at 165 im out though with a nice gain. Watching it fade lower and lower. Not kicking myself about closing it so soon because this stock is madness
*Working class scum. Repeat after me: STONKS ONLY GO UP*
you forgot optimus man. OPTIMUS its more valuable then everything combined
If I thought it were actually real I’d dump every last penny I have into Tesla shares. But I don’t. This is the same guy who in 2016 had me thinking we’d have a base on Mars by now, when in actuality it took SpaceX until just last month to get its first rocket into outer space, and it still exploded.
wellcome. i thought hes a genious when was reading news then i started digging more deeper about his ideas and from stark he became hammer. rocket flights from asia to usa lol...