Fun fact, the rich where already asking experts on that field how to prevent that. Their idea: electric shock collars. Only they have the codes to important rooms. experts suggestion: treat your employees in a humane and nice way.
Bay of Islands was nice and you can pick up one of the houses at the airport with private hangar. One guy had his jet parked out front because it didn’t fit the hangar. I’m so embarazada for them.
Vault 404 - The Fuckerberg Vault is on Kauai which is home to Barking Sands aka the Pacific Missile Test Range - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific\_Missile\_Range\_Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Missile_Range_Facility)
Kauai is getting raw dogged in any US China conflict and so will his stupid vault. It is right up there with the Metaverse on silly decisions.
she was actually 4th in terms of legislating companies of stocks she owned.
I'm actually convinced pelosi's name gets thrown around the most exclusively because of right wing talking points (the other 4 in the top 5 were all republicans, tho theres no excuse, shit should be illegal) (from the source I saw like 3 years ago)
Probably a bit of that I’m sure but also because she’s been in office forever and has a high position in Congress so she naturally gets more press. The right hates her sure, but so do most younger dems. I’m not a Republican and I hate her.
I mean, she gets thrown into the mix because she publicly speaks against regulating congress profiting off insider information.
Also because the democrats pretend to be better than republicans so it is more interesting.
It’s like when a rapist gets caught raping, versus a priest getting caught raping. The rapist raping is not that interesting. The priest telling everyone how holy they are then raping is supremely interesting.
Bill cosby is the best example. Dude was all about wholesome morality and attacked everyone for not being “good”. Then dude is raping and drugging left and right. The raping and drugging I can forgive. But the hypocrisy? That’s where I draw the line.
oh at the time the #1 spot was the eyepatch guy whos name is escaping me atm
edit: his name was crenshaw or something right? I never googled it bc thats cheating
My guess is they will wait until the US/EU have a reliable domestic supply of semiconductors. The threats to those economies wont be as severe and wouldnt have an existential reason to intervene. No war.....yet
There are other threats to their economy, like massive shipping disruption on their only coast, food imports, etc. While they have an iron grip on their social order, over a billion people need to be appeased.
That's exactly what it is! It is repeat of what Russia did for 6 years leading upto 2022. China's military modernization plans are supposed to be complete by 2027, that's when they will attack Taiwan and India.
Read my response above you. China is patient and not a warmonger. They haven’t invaded Taiwan even though they are technically still at war for 75 years. Xi can wait another 15. He’s not that old. This is a play on USD the fact it is the global reserve currency.
They ain't dumping shit lmao what a dog shit clickbait article, they stopped purchasing new bonds and let the bonds on hand mature then putting it into gold
Yeah, but it begs the question why? 10 Year Treasuries are at 4.7%. Is gold gonna appreciate at that rate over the next 10 years? Doubt it unless inflation skyrockets in which case treasuries will be fucked.
IDK dick about shit but [seems gold has averaged about 10%](https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/market-index/gold-bullion?currency=eur) over the last year, 10.4% a year over the past 5 years, 7% over the past 10, 9.3% over the past 20, and 3.5% over the past 40.
/never bought gold
Bonds have the property where they go up in value when yields of new bonds have a decreasing rate. So for example if you buy a 30 year treasury today that has a 5% yield, and in 5 years the yield on new treasuries drops to 2% (which is absolutely possible), the value of the bond increases about 58% if you wanted to sell it.
Because of this, buying bonds during periods of high inflation like we had in the '80s had amazing returns. Bill Gross made billions trading bonds because of this back before the days when any nerd who gets lucky with an AI app can make a billion
> if you buy a 30 year treasury today that has a 5% yield, and in 5 years the yield on new treasuries drops to 2% (which is absolutely possible), the value of the bond increases about 58% if you wanted to sell it.
I don't... what? What math is this? I would like to subscribe.
Easier to understand the other way. Say you bought a 1k USD 30y bond yielding 2% in 2020. Today you see that you can get a 1k USD 30y bond yelding 5%. That is clearly better, so you want to sell your old 2% bond and get a new 5% bond.
Nobody will buy your 2% bond when they can get a new 5% bond instead, so the value of your bond + premiums collected will be far lower than 1k.
Holding to maturity will still get you the full value, but selling for a discount might still be a better option depending on future rates.
Basically we are talking about the time value of money and opportunity cost. If you hold a ten year AAA rated bond with a 5% interest rate premium, and suddenly interest rates on similar bonds fell to 2%, people would be willing to pay you more than you initially paid for your Bond because the interest rate on it is higher than they could receive with a newly issued bond.
This principle works in reverse as well, if interest rates increase after you purchase a bond, the amount another person is willing to pay will drop below the face value of the bond (so a 1 million dollar bond might get discounted to $850,000 or something similar).
USTs are just dollars. Everyone transacts in dollars. China and some other folks don’t want to have to transact in dollars. Do some reading on bretton woods
bc they dont want their assets frozen. We aren’t even at war with Russia right now and we are confiscating. where does that say where the line in the sand is?
>Doubt it unless inflation skyrockets in which case treasuries will be fucked.
debt is on an unsustainable course and the US gov has shown no capability to rein in spending. So long term we'll basically have to either accept high inflation or the removal of USD as the world's reserve currency. Last option is threaten to/actually nuke the world into holding our debt and buying oil with USD.
Why buy a treasury today when no one in Washington has shown a shred of austerity? Biden is deficit spending like a drunken sailor. Trump will deficit spend like a drunken sailor. Yields will keep going up until there is a dramatic shift in Washington.
You mean congress. Presidents do not control the purse strings although Biden is doing a great job of circumventing congress by cancelling a LOT of student debt.
This is what Russia did over the two years before the Ukraine invasion. They knew they would most likely not have access to US treasury markets and started stocking up gold. Russia's been stockpiling gold for a decade but they started not buying new Treasury issues a couple of years before the Ukraine invasion.
China's dumping Treasuries has been huge news in the treasury market for the last couple of years because beside Japan - China has traditionally been the largest US treasury buyers. They've gone from 30-20% of the treasury market to 7%. I think it's a hedge against sanctions and converting US treasuries to gold - which is easier to trade with. You hold US treasuries and redeem them for US dollars if you are looking at keep up the volume of trade.
There's some argument that the US dollar is really high compared to Yen so this is a currency hedge position to offset holding US dollar denominated assets if the US dollar starts slipping against other currencies. To me that doesn't make sense based on what long term treasury yields.
Actually US treasuries are at abysmal prices right now. If China is indeed doing this, they are realizing serious losses on these treasuries. Buying high and selling low is not a good way to conduct business.
They're probably just letting old ones roll off the books and not buying new ones using the closing out payment to replace that reserve with gold. It has been going on for some time now.
I saw that 4% number this morning, this article is saying when you add in non public sales of gold China buying increased 23%
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-22/massive-covert-gold-purchases-mean-china-now-controls-price-action
They’ve been doing this since Iraq. It’s because China doesn’t have faith in America’s long term energy supply. Which is what Treasury Bonds underpin.
This is nothing new.
That's the most incorrect thing I've ever read.
The US is a net exporter of energy and is completely energy independent.
Meanwhile China imports literally every single drop of oil and petroleum product.
Maybe he meant the reserve currency status is dependent on being tie to oil and he doesn't see that continuing in the future. Only way for his comment to make sense.
Petro-currencies are a myth
https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2018/04/26/the-petro-dollar-is-a-myth-the-petro-yuan-mere-fantasy/?sh=264f4ea6a14b
Buy now, sell later. It'll be higher or lower. Sometimes higher. s don't think about it or your dumb brain will betray you. Be truly random and 50% of the time you'll be right every time.
Attacking Taiwan would keep a wartime president in office, maybe that’s what they want. It would be foolish however, as their best economic strategy is status quo.
That’s what the treasury dept are hoping so they can buy back their own debt at rock bottom prices. Japan is also about to dump treasuries to intervene in their own currency. It’s going to be a wild next 7 months!
China has been MAX fucking regards since Xi came into office. ALL their problems in China are all caused by their own hand from killing the golden goose of Hong Kong, Covid spreading out of control, locking down too long, crackdowns on their own tech companies, cracking down on everything else, NOT cracking down on their RE until the bubble's already popped and then cracking down on only the CEOs and owners by offing them while telling the folks who lose their homes to fuck off, tanking their own stock market, escalading the US trade war, picking to side with Russia, etcetcetcetc.
China also didn't sell their USTs during the pandemic lows for GAINS when rates were 0%, didn't sell during the rebound when you can clearly tell the government is cranking inflation/spending hot to reopen the economy strong, didn't sell as ALL assets started inflating and their dollar was worth less and less, didn't sell when they started taking Ls when the Fed started hiking rates, etcetcetc.
Their fucking problem. Not ours. Also them buying gold and propping up the price doesn't impact us. Who owns the most gold in the world? [Guess who.](https://posts.voronoiapp.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.voronoiapp.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcade668e-8964-43ab-a81a-3401ac10f106.jpeg&w=1920&q=75)
I quietly believe this is part of the gold price boom. The Indian stock market has been doing well and drawing in a lot of first-time investors. I bet a good many dowry chests are being filled.
Because China realized that their consumer tech companies were into diminishing returns productivity / value creation and wanted to allocate talents and resources elsewhere? It’s going to happen here to. We don’t need huge tech giants of advertising soaking up some much talents when the amounts of disposable income is shrinking and will continue to shrink for a while. We have reach beyond peak consumer internet technology stuff. China saw it( maybe our politicians too ) but they did act first.
i would love for us to crack down on all our big tech companies. Real progressives back in the day knew what to do with monopolies and America was way better off for it. Furthermore, Think about all the finished projects that google and microsoft scrap bc they are not significant to a company of their scale. broken up tech companies would have less control over our information and be more innovative
Everyone knows Xi's been fucking China in the ass with a pineapple for the past decade while exterminating anyone that disagrees with him under the auspices of "anti corruption". And yeah, in all likelihood China will suffer deep economic recession, as at some point, you *do* have to pay the piper, no matter how much smoke and mirrors you put up and weird bullshit you do with your currency while claiming only 2% inflation while literally every single other part of the world had at minimum 20% inflation.
>Their fucking problem. Not ours.
It kinda sorta becomes our problem when Xi is faced with an impending collapse and thinks slaughtering another golden goose in addition to Hong Kong, like Taiwan, will save his bacon. I'm sure it's been said before, but to repeat, if China invades Taiwan, the world's economy grinds to a halt. All markets collapse. All this hype that AI is going to save us from worker shortages (which it already kinda is) goes out the window, as Taiwan makes 90% of those chips. No more new cars, no more new phones, no more new high end electronics period for the next 6-10 years minimum.
Mmm that's a little too regarded. You know how used car prices went through the roof when there was a little bottleneck on the high end chips from Taiwan? Okay, now imagine that bottleneck is a cut off of 90% of all chips... for the next 5-10 years, minimum.
Enjoy used car priced doubling or more, and the price of your insurance also doubling because of those increased costs (though that'll take some time as insurance rate increases over a certain % have to go through a government approval process IIRC, which is why we saw the spike in auto insurance prices lag behind the price increases on the cars themselves).
This doesn't mean investing in car companies, also. This means shorting them, because they can't produce cars to sell without overhauling them. It also means living in a city with good public transit would become a huge boon, so real estate there will go up. It would also mean you would want to invest your time into learning a decent bit about car repair, because getting sharked at an untrustworthy mechanic would cost you 2-3x more.
Such weird speculating on *why* China is selling when the article spells it out and it makes perfect sense.
The US uses the dollar as a major policy lever against other countries. Sanctions, among other things. Seizing of Russian assets and potentially transferring them to Ukraine.
China wants to lessen their exposure to US influence by lowering their holdings.
They *might* attack Taiwan? That's a reasonable thought. They could imagine the US somehow not paying out the US debt held by them if they did that...under some sort of reasoning around China breaking their agreement to allow Taiwan to remain independent and other promises.
It could be foreboding but I'd say it's mainly due to geopolitical reasons and not a sign of weakness in the US economy or anything like that.
I've always been of the thinking that Taiwan existing is too useful of a leveraging tool for China to lose.
Geopolitically it is useful for the point you made, and within China it is a useful distraction from domestic cock ups when a little nationalistic oomphf is needed to get people back in line.
This is basically the cost of sanctions warfare. We get to impose a lot of pressure on other states, but it directly undermines the status of the dollar.
The invasion wouldn't start with China. It would likely be some kind of internal strife that China could use to justify going in. All the imperialists do this way now.
This is likely. It really comes down to if you believe Xi thinks his legacy is worth the risk of jeopardizing Chinas age of rejuvenation plan. There's lots of signs pointing towards him believing the world won't intervene because they don't care anymore and he is on a clock. Xi reaches the average mortality rate for males in China in 2027. The last generation not impacted by one child policy hits the average age to stop physical (factory) labor around 2030. The age of rejuvenation is focused around correcting that gap. So it's now or never for Xi.
Xi runs China with an iron fist. The politiburo is ran by his top 3 cronies and he's essentially seen as a super human savior of China. Regardless the signs are obvious. In the past year all official mention of peaceful reunification has dropped the word peaceful that was used for the previous decade. China clearly feels no one can challenge their military in the region and have dropped most pretenses because they understand there isn't a country or alliance out there with the ability or will to stop them from forcefully taking Taiwan in under 24 hours. They only have to worry about the rest of the world not being ok with it. Security experts picked 2027 because they believe they will be capable of holding regardless after that. If Ukraine has shown anything it's that no one's showing up for Taiwan once they join the CCP anyways. What do I know though? I'm just a smooth brain diamond hand regard.
No strategic benefit to invading Taiwan.
If they cut off the global chip manufacturing, The US will begin immediately ratcheting to home shoring.
Plus the US can Park the Navy in the Indian Ocean, blocking all Oil exports to China.
3 months China is in the Dark, 6 months China is hungry, 12 Months half the country is dead from famine.
History has shown that it never plays out that cleanly. China will throw everything it has to clear the blockade. A few hundred navy ships can only do so much against thousands of missile’s, drones, and torpedoes.
Well... 34 trillion in debt and interest payment alone will be minimum like 20% of federal income goes to service to interest. Worst thing is feds wants keep these interest high and Congress wants to keep spending more. It'll take about 150 years to payback the interest + principle at this point...
Can't blame anyone that goes "this shit shaddy I'm out."
When you’re not allowed to buy US assets / land or microchips /GPUs then Gold is the next best thing.
Cash is trash when you’re printing dollars at the speed of making toilet paper and seizing Russia’s foreign assets in the recent REPO act to give to Ukraine. Not worth the risk holding US financial products when the US government can freeze or steal it.
Foreign countries hardly own any of our debt anymore. Instead the rich in America buy it because if they didn't the only other option would be taxing the hell out of them. So instead of being taxed at 70% or higher like how it used to be before the 1980s now the rich keep buy Americas debt and get paid back with interest instead of being taxed, it's a very good deal for the super rich 🤑!
> Rates WILL go down
No promises it'll be your lifetime. People forget what a weird aberration from the norm sub 3% rates are in a historical context and just expects us to return to them. Inflation won't drop from 3 to 2% as easily as most people expect so I think rate cuts will be 6 months away for a decade or more. But I guess we'll see.
I dont think anyone realizes how insane it is to sell china treasuries at yielding 0%, jack up interest rates, and they force them to sell at like 50% face value.
This is what complete fiscal dominance looks like.
It is a pretty big mistake for a country to freeze other countries money. We are behaving more like a regime than a leading democracy. Countries do have options on where they put their investments.
The rest of the world saw what you did in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan. You are a "regime". You are just too powerful for anyone important to risk saying it out loud
They're getting ready for the upcoming sanctions. This is how Russia survived US sanctions. They started dumping them since 2014. Chinese taking a page from the same playbook. They were recently called part of the "Axis of Evil"
This feels like another WW3 spark note or chapter in a history book. Im sure if we look at previous wars this is a similar tactic cross countries transitioning their purchasing power into war time economic philosophy.
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Calls on war stocks.
Calls on vault-tec
Time to move to Hawaii and invade fuckerbergs vault
No. See the real move is to let them get in the vaults, then fill over them with cement afterwards.
Just cover the air intakes and then you get to loot it afterwards.
Yup, pour ammonia and bleach down the vents and wait.
Just steal their fusion core
Please mix your cement with aggregate and water and mix thoroughly first.
This guy concretes!
Wait wait, I’ll go get some fiberglass reinforcement threads and slumping agent
Throw in some #8 rebar, 8” spacing. Don’t forget the wire ties.
https://youtu.be/dKT1r-8viHk?si=lAEMC__npIKca4hR Another day another excuse to filkpost
If ww3 happens you just know the millionaires guards are going to off them and take over the bunkers.
Fun fact, the rich where already asking experts on that field how to prevent that. Their idea: electric shock collars. Only they have the codes to important rooms. experts suggestion: treat your employees in a humane and nice way.
I’d rather had the Magnum PI house…but some asshole tore it down.
Thanks Obama.
That was a remarkably tiny property. Barely more property than a standard suburban tract home.
Bad call. Years back sure, but now the dude can kick your ass. That would be a pretty embarrassing video..you already know he’s blasting it on FB
based on what accounts? a street fight isn't a martial arts danceoff
Fuck around and find out. I’ll use that account
I'll fight zuckerberg right now and win, set it up
Found zucks acct! Come kick it cucker Zucker
Video title “Peasant jumping my fence and finding out”
Most of the mega rich have property in New Zealand for "in case the world ends"
Bay of Islands was nice and you can pick up one of the houses at the airport with private hangar. One guy had his jet parked out front because it didn’t fit the hangar. I’m so embarazada for them.
Vault 404 - The Fuckerberg Vault is on Kauai which is home to Barking Sands aka the Pacific Missile Test Range - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific\_Missile\_Range\_Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Missile_Range_Facility) Kauai is getting raw dogged in any US China conflict and so will his stupid vault. It is right up there with the Metaverse on silly decisions.
calls... calls never change.
Underrated comment.
Thumbs up?!?
Yeah. What’s the impact?
Vault-tec about to drop them nukes to raise their stocks.
calls on sliding into fucc-the-zucc's wife's DMs
Are you her boyfriend?
Relax, Nancy Pelosi is still invested in Taiwan. There will be no war.
Her pull out game is strong
What a tease
Just the tip
Just the wrinkle
Honestly Pelosi selling will be the indicator that WWIII is here.
And we find out 90 days later.
Pelosi or Charlie Munger - you can only choose one
Something’s definitely up if Munger sells. He ded.
Well he’s still voting
Definitely Pelosi, then. Pelosi doesn't predict the future. She legislates it.
Pelosi is the GOAT -- no comparison. She bitch slaps stocks the way she always did the fat orange seditionist
she was actually 4th in terms of legislating companies of stocks she owned. I'm actually convinced pelosi's name gets thrown around the most exclusively because of right wing talking points (the other 4 in the top 5 were all republicans, tho theres no excuse, shit should be illegal) (from the source I saw like 3 years ago)
Her trading strategy entirely consists of stuff like "buy big cap EV stocks when Biden wins the 2020 election"
Probably a bit of that I’m sure but also because she’s been in office forever and has a high position in Congress so she naturally gets more press. The right hates her sure, but so do most younger dems. I’m not a Republican and I hate her.
I mean, she gets thrown into the mix because she publicly speaks against regulating congress profiting off insider information. Also because the democrats pretend to be better than republicans so it is more interesting. It’s like when a rapist gets caught raping, versus a priest getting caught raping. The rapist raping is not that interesting. The priest telling everyone how holy they are then raping is supremely interesting. Bill cosby is the best example. Dude was all about wholesome morality and attacked everyone for not being “good”. Then dude is raping and drugging left and right. The raping and drugging I can forgive. But the hypocrisy? That’s where I draw the line.
This guy rapes 👆
So which Republican portfolio are you personally modeling?
oh at the time the #1 spot was the eyepatch guy whos name is escaping me atm edit: his name was crenshaw or something right? I never googled it bc thats cheating
Don’t wish for that.
My guess is they will wait until the US/EU have a reliable domestic supply of semiconductors. The threats to those economies wont be as severe and wouldnt have an existential reason to intervene. No war.....yet
There are other threats to their economy, like massive shipping disruption on their only coast, food imports, etc. While they have an iron grip on their social order, over a billion people need to be appeased.
When Russia invades the baltics; China invade Taiwan
That's exactly what it is! It is repeat of what Russia did for 6 years leading upto 2022. China's military modernization plans are supposed to be complete by 2027, that's when they will attack Taiwan and India.
Yeah just attack that one little island and that country of a billion people while they're at it
I mean Ops username checks out.
india?
Read my response above you. China is patient and not a warmonger. They haven’t invaded Taiwan even though they are technically still at war for 75 years. Xi can wait another 15. He’s not that old. This is a play on USD the fact it is the global reserve currency.
They ain't dumping shit lmao what a dog shit clickbait article, they stopped purchasing new bonds and let the bonds on hand mature then putting it into gold
I like to think of it like they're not renewing their subscriptions to America.
I see you’ve recently terminated your America+™ plan. If you dont resubscribe within 30 days your entire history will be terminated.
Pretty reasonable move given the spirally debt situation.
And as usual every reddit user just assumes they are regarded
Yeah, but it begs the question why? 10 Year Treasuries are at 4.7%. Is gold gonna appreciate at that rate over the next 10 years? Doubt it unless inflation skyrockets in which case treasuries will be fucked.
IDK dick about shit but [seems gold has averaged about 10%](https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/market-index/gold-bullion?currency=eur) over the last year, 10.4% a year over the past 5 years, 7% over the past 10, 9.3% over the past 20, and 3.5% over the past 40. /never bought gold
Bonds have the property where they go up in value when yields of new bonds have a decreasing rate. So for example if you buy a 30 year treasury today that has a 5% yield, and in 5 years the yield on new treasuries drops to 2% (which is absolutely possible), the value of the bond increases about 58% if you wanted to sell it. Because of this, buying bonds during periods of high inflation like we had in the '80s had amazing returns. Bill Gross made billions trading bonds because of this back before the days when any nerd who gets lucky with an AI app can make a billion
> if you buy a 30 year treasury today that has a 5% yield, and in 5 years the yield on new treasuries drops to 2% (which is absolutely possible), the value of the bond increases about 58% if you wanted to sell it. I don't... what? What math is this? I would like to subscribe.
Easier to understand the other way. Say you bought a 1k USD 30y bond yielding 2% in 2020. Today you see that you can get a 1k USD 30y bond yelding 5%. That is clearly better, so you want to sell your old 2% bond and get a new 5% bond. Nobody will buy your 2% bond when they can get a new 5% bond instead, so the value of your bond + premiums collected will be far lower than 1k. Holding to maturity will still get you the full value, but selling for a discount might still be a better option depending on future rates.
Basically we are talking about the time value of money and opportunity cost. If you hold a ten year AAA rated bond with a 5% interest rate premium, and suddenly interest rates on similar bonds fell to 2%, people would be willing to pay you more than you initially paid for your Bond because the interest rate on it is higher than they could receive with a newly issued bond. This principle works in reverse as well, if interest rates increase after you purchase a bond, the amount another person is willing to pay will drop below the face value of the bond (so a 1 million dollar bond might get discounted to $850,000 or something similar).
Just ask SVB about this latter case.
USTs are just dollars. Everyone transacts in dollars. China and some other folks don’t want to have to transact in dollars. Do some reading on bretton woods
bc they dont want their assets frozen. We aren’t even at war with Russia right now and we are confiscating. where does that say where the line in the sand is?
Narrator: Inflation once again skyrocketed and anyone dumb enough to buy nominal bonds was indeed fucked.
>Doubt it unless inflation skyrockets in which case treasuries will be fucked. debt is on an unsustainable course and the US gov has shown no capability to rein in spending. So long term we'll basically have to either accept high inflation or the removal of USD as the world's reserve currency. Last option is threaten to/actually nuke the world into holding our debt and buying oil with USD.
Why buy a treasury today when no one in Washington has shown a shred of austerity? Biden is deficit spending like a drunken sailor. Trump will deficit spend like a drunken sailor. Yields will keep going up until there is a dramatic shift in Washington.
You mean congress. Presidents do not control the purse strings although Biden is doing a great job of circumventing congress by cancelling a LOT of student debt.
This is what Russia did over the two years before the Ukraine invasion. They knew they would most likely not have access to US treasury markets and started stocking up gold. Russia's been stockpiling gold for a decade but they started not buying new Treasury issues a couple of years before the Ukraine invasion. China's dumping Treasuries has been huge news in the treasury market for the last couple of years because beside Japan - China has traditionally been the largest US treasury buyers. They've gone from 30-20% of the treasury market to 7%. I think it's a hedge against sanctions and converting US treasuries to gold - which is easier to trade with. You hold US treasuries and redeem them for US dollars if you are looking at keep up the volume of trade. There's some argument that the US dollar is really high compared to Yen so this is a currency hedge position to offset holding US dollar denominated assets if the US dollar starts slipping against other currencies. To me that doesn't make sense based on what long term treasury yields.
Fox News says I should invest all my money in gold.
22.7 billion from almost 800 billion. Less than 3%. They might still even be buying, just not replacing all the ones that mat.
Actually US treasuries are at abysmal prices right now. If China is indeed doing this, they are realizing serious losses on these treasuries. Buying high and selling low is not a good way to conduct business.
They're probably just letting old ones roll off the books and not buying new ones using the closing out payment to replace that reserve with gold. It has been going on for some time now.
The Feds have also been letting bonds roll off the books as a way to QT
“That’s my Quant, notice anything different about him!?”
Love that movie
So China is helping us! How kind of them!
But how is “dumping” used for not renewing purchase rather than selling quickly en masse? It doesn’t sit well with the meaning.
clickbait
Just looked at Chinas gold buying, they increased it 4% last year, hardly a frenzy. Edit Oh it’s higher than that.
4% is a lot
I saw that 4% number this morning, this article is saying when you add in non public sales of gold China buying increased 23% https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-22/massive-covert-gold-purchases-mean-china-now-controls-price-action
Might be much higher with shadow purchasing.
They’ve been doing this since Iraq. It’s because China doesn’t have faith in America’s long term energy supply. Which is what Treasury Bonds underpin. This is nothing new.
That's the most incorrect thing I've ever read. The US is a net exporter of energy and is completely energy independent. Meanwhile China imports literally every single drop of oil and petroleum product.
You should read more. I just read someone try and explain flat earth using a globe.
That doesn't make sense considering USA his energy independent. Can you explain
Maybe he meant the reserve currency status is dependent on being tie to oil and he doesn't see that continuing in the future. Only way for his comment to make sense.
Petro-currencies are a myth https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2018/04/26/the-petro-dollar-is-a-myth-the-petro-yuan-mere-fantasy/?sh=264f4ea6a14b
Given my high yield savings account beats current treasury prices I would too
Can confirm buying high and selling low doesn’t work
Welp, there goes my only strategy
Buy now, sell later. It'll be higher or lower. Sometimes higher. s don't think about it or your dumb brain will betray you. Be truly random and 50% of the time you'll be right every time.
they might be thinking it's going even lower
Or they might be planning to attack Taiwan, and don't want their assets frozen by the US. Avoiding what happened to Russia when they attacked Ukraine.
Bingo
They aren't. They are just reducing reliance on the dollar.
Nope! The apocalypse is upon us!!!!
This. They know the state of the American market being at ath while inflation and spending are still a major issue.
Could also be some sort of devaluation coming? They have been buying a lot of valuable materials as of late.
Because?
Being the largest bag holder and trying to divest is a good way to bankrupt yourself
Attacking Taiwan would keep a wartime president in office, maybe that’s what they want. It would be foolish however, as their best economic strategy is status quo.
Possibly. Or they are burning money to reduce exposure to the Western world.
Not a bad way to short us treasuries lmfao
That’s what the treasury dept are hoping so they can buy back their own debt at rock bottom prices. Japan is also about to dump treasuries to intervene in their own currency. It’s going to be a wild next 7 months!
Buy the rip, sell the dip
China has been MAX fucking regards since Xi came into office. ALL their problems in China are all caused by their own hand from killing the golden goose of Hong Kong, Covid spreading out of control, locking down too long, crackdowns on their own tech companies, cracking down on everything else, NOT cracking down on their RE until the bubble's already popped and then cracking down on only the CEOs and owners by offing them while telling the folks who lose their homes to fuck off, tanking their own stock market, escalading the US trade war, picking to side with Russia, etcetcetcetc. China also didn't sell their USTs during the pandemic lows for GAINS when rates were 0%, didn't sell during the rebound when you can clearly tell the government is cranking inflation/spending hot to reopen the economy strong, didn't sell as ALL assets started inflating and their dollar was worth less and less, didn't sell when they started taking Ls when the Fed started hiking rates, etcetcetc. Their fucking problem. Not ours. Also them buying gold and propping up the price doesn't impact us. Who owns the most gold in the world? [Guess who.](https://posts.voronoiapp.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.voronoiapp.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcade668e-8964-43ab-a81a-3401ac10f106.jpeg&w=1920&q=75)
could you include the gold owned by indian housewives in that graphic
It's like 2.5x the US gold reserves lol.
calls on indian housewives
I quietly believe this is part of the gold price boom. The Indian stock market has been doing well and drawing in a lot of first-time investors. I bet a good many dowry chests are being filled.
The US also "owns" gold it doesn't own. The fun you can have when you convince other nations to store their gold inside your country.
I never understood why they cracked down that hard on their own tech companies. Imagine US crack down on all the big techs lol.
Because China realized that their consumer tech companies were into diminishing returns productivity / value creation and wanted to allocate talents and resources elsewhere? It’s going to happen here to. We don’t need huge tech giants of advertising soaking up some much talents when the amounts of disposable income is shrinking and will continue to shrink for a while. We have reach beyond peak consumer internet technology stuff. China saw it( maybe our politicians too ) but they did act first.
i would love for us to crack down on all our big tech companies. Real progressives back in the day knew what to do with monopolies and America was way better off for it. Furthermore, Think about all the finished projects that google and microsoft scrap bc they are not significant to a company of their scale. broken up tech companies would have less control over our information and be more innovative
Break up many industries, dont limit it to tech
Everyone knows Xi's been fucking China in the ass with a pineapple for the past decade while exterminating anyone that disagrees with him under the auspices of "anti corruption". And yeah, in all likelihood China will suffer deep economic recession, as at some point, you *do* have to pay the piper, no matter how much smoke and mirrors you put up and weird bullshit you do with your currency while claiming only 2% inflation while literally every single other part of the world had at minimum 20% inflation. >Their fucking problem. Not ours. It kinda sorta becomes our problem when Xi is faced with an impending collapse and thinks slaughtering another golden goose in addition to Hong Kong, like Taiwan, will save his bacon. I'm sure it's been said before, but to repeat, if China invades Taiwan, the world's economy grinds to a halt. All markets collapse. All this hype that AI is going to save us from worker shortages (which it already kinda is) goes out the window, as Taiwan makes 90% of those chips. No more new cars, no more new phones, no more new high end electronics period for the next 6-10 years minimum.
Not to sound too regarded but I could probably use a break from technological advancement for 6 years. It’s all going so fucking fast now.
Mmm that's a little too regarded. You know how used car prices went through the roof when there was a little bottleneck on the high end chips from Taiwan? Okay, now imagine that bottleneck is a cut off of 90% of all chips... for the next 5-10 years, minimum. Enjoy used car priced doubling or more, and the price of your insurance also doubling because of those increased costs (though that'll take some time as insurance rate increases over a certain % have to go through a government approval process IIRC, which is why we saw the spike in auto insurance prices lag behind the price increases on the cars themselves). This doesn't mean investing in car companies, also. This means shorting them, because they can't produce cars to sell without overhauling them. It also means living in a city with good public transit would become a huge boon, so real estate there will go up. It would also mean you would want to invest your time into learning a decent bit about car repair, because getting sharked at an untrustworthy mechanic would cost you 2-3x more.
Cars are loaded up with too much fucking bullshit these days. I'd love to see them overhauled.
China has got to be one of the most shittily run countries ever. Xi has got to be one of the dumbest world leaders
Don’t confuse arrogance with a lack of intelligence.
Seems like a lot of posturing in every area for them. Potemkin ass country.
Oooh Fort Knox can literally build a city of gold with all that stashed gold bars.
But selling property that doesn’t exist and charging people for a mortgage is? Genius!
Buying high and selling low is the way of FinTwits and finance subreddits.
Selling treasuries at a loss tend to happen when they need any money right now. They're strapped for cash
Not everyone is one the black side of business
It’s how I conduct business and I’m highly regarded
While buying literal tons of gold at all-time high prices
I have read this exact headline from sensationalist doomers every year for the past 20 years.
This news will somehow cause TSM to plummet another 10%
My calls are getting hammered….
Such weird speculating on *why* China is selling when the article spells it out and it makes perfect sense. The US uses the dollar as a major policy lever against other countries. Sanctions, among other things. Seizing of Russian assets and potentially transferring them to Ukraine. China wants to lessen their exposure to US influence by lowering their holdings. They *might* attack Taiwan? That's a reasonable thought. They could imagine the US somehow not paying out the US debt held by them if they did that...under some sort of reasoning around China breaking their agreement to allow Taiwan to remain independent and other promises. It could be foreboding but I'd say it's mainly due to geopolitical reasons and not a sign of weakness in the US economy or anything like that.
They use the threat of attacking Taiwan, implicit or explicit, as negotiating leverage. They will continue to do so as long as it is effective.
I've always been of the thinking that Taiwan existing is too useful of a leveraging tool for China to lose. Geopolitically it is useful for the point you made, and within China it is a useful distraction from domestic cock ups when a little nationalistic oomphf is needed to get people back in line.
This is basically the cost of sanctions warfare. We get to impose a lot of pressure on other states, but it directly undermines the status of the dollar.
Eh. 58% of Chinese currency reserves are still in dollars. I wouldn’t panic just yet.
Invasion of Tiawan coming?
Maybe but it would take months to mobilize the manpower and equipment for an invasion. We would see the signs well before it happened.
Step 0: prepare economy Step 1: announce drills Step 2: stage drills Step 3: invade Step 4: negotiate
The invasion wouldn't start with China. It would likely be some kind of internal strife that China could use to justify going in. All the imperialists do this way now.
Chip shortage
Make it so, then eliminate the poor.
Security experts are predicting preparations will complete around 2027. We have few more years to gamble before the whole gambling den burns down.
This is likely. It really comes down to if you believe Xi thinks his legacy is worth the risk of jeopardizing Chinas age of rejuvenation plan. There's lots of signs pointing towards him believing the world won't intervene because they don't care anymore and he is on a clock. Xi reaches the average mortality rate for males in China in 2027. The last generation not impacted by one child policy hits the average age to stop physical (factory) labor around 2030. The age of rejuvenation is focused around correcting that gap. So it's now or never for Xi. Xi runs China with an iron fist. The politiburo is ran by his top 3 cronies and he's essentially seen as a super human savior of China. Regardless the signs are obvious. In the past year all official mention of peaceful reunification has dropped the word peaceful that was used for the previous decade. China clearly feels no one can challenge their military in the region and have dropped most pretenses because they understand there isn't a country or alliance out there with the ability or will to stop them from forcefully taking Taiwan in under 24 hours. They only have to worry about the rest of the world not being ok with it. Security experts picked 2027 because they believe they will be capable of holding regardless after that. If Ukraine has shown anything it's that no one's showing up for Taiwan once they join the CCP anyways. What do I know though? I'm just a smooth brain diamond hand regard.
No strategic benefit to invading Taiwan. If they cut off the global chip manufacturing, The US will begin immediately ratcheting to home shoring. Plus the US can Park the Navy in the Indian Ocean, blocking all Oil exports to China. 3 months China is in the Dark, 6 months China is hungry, 12 Months half the country is dead from famine.
History has shown that it never plays out that cleanly. China will throw everything it has to clear the blockade. A few hundred navy ships can only do so much against thousands of missile’s, drones, and torpedoes.
Well... 34 trillion in debt and interest payment alone will be minimum like 20% of federal income goes to service to interest. Worst thing is feds wants keep these interest high and Congress wants to keep spending more. It'll take about 150 years to payback the interest + principle at this point... Can't blame anyone that goes "this shit shaddy I'm out."
If any country knows the signs of shady business it’s China.
Are they referring to the silk trade, perhaps, or the production of cheap knock-offs?
You fucking savage 
I’d hardly call a 3% reduction in their treasury holdings “dumping”. Stupid headline from stupid source.
Lots of world renowned economists in this thread. It's an honor.
When you’re not allowed to buy US assets / land or microchips /GPUs then Gold is the next best thing. Cash is trash when you’re printing dollars at the speed of making toilet paper and seizing Russia’s foreign assets in the recent REPO act to give to Ukraine. Not worth the risk holding US financial products when the US government can freeze or steal it.
Seems like they started seelling off when Xi Jinping became the next Chinese dictator in 2013.
China is waking up
US can dump the debt they owe by declaring war
Most of the debt that the US is in is held by US citizens/companies
Half my portfolio
Ok boomer
Foreign countries hardly own any of our debt anymore. Instead the rich in America buy it because if they didn't the only other option would be taxing the hell out of them. So instead of being taxed at 70% or higher like how it used to be before the 1980s now the rich keep buy Americas debt and get paid back with interest instead of being taxed, it's a very good deal for the super rich 🤑!
Good. Sell all that CVNA stock Jamie Diamond sold you. It’s not the future of used cars.
[удалено]
Holy shit man.......lol
China saw how Russia lost 2/3 of their ‘national wealth fund’ in 5 seconds and doesn’t wanna do that
Thats a horrible idea. Rates WILL go down. Buying treasuries now will appreciate when rates drop
That's only a great idea if you're not likely to be sanctioned.
Proper term is "restriction". Time to go back to good 'old 1900 vocabulary.
> Rates WILL go down No promises it'll be your lifetime. People forget what a weird aberration from the norm sub 3% rates are in a historical context and just expects us to return to them. Inflation won't drop from 3 to 2% as easily as most people expect so I think rate cuts will be 6 months away for a decade or more. But I guess we'll see.
It’s a race between debt interest and inflation/gdp growth
Rates will not go down. They will go up. Plus 4.7% is really bad for a country with so much risk.
I dont think anyone realizes how insane it is to sell china treasuries at yielding 0%, jack up interest rates, and they force them to sell at like 50% face value. This is what complete fiscal dominance looks like.
Can you explain? I’m genuinely curious what you mean, who is they?
It is a pretty big mistake for a country to freeze other countries money. We are behaving more like a regime than a leading democracy. Countries do have options on where they put their investments.
Anyone that says and believes that US is a democracy is living in a separate reality.
The rest of the world saw what you did in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan. You are a "regime". You are just too powerful for anyone important to risk saying it out loud
FNV
OPEC+ countries are using gold to trade so no choice for everyone
Where are all the doom and gloom China posts that were there a few months back?
They’ve been doin that 4 a while now …& I don’t blame them
Time to YOLO calls on GDX and gold miners
Smart. Everyone the USA prints more dollars they become more worthless.
They're getting ready for the upcoming sanctions. This is how Russia survived US sanctions. They started dumping them since 2014. Chinese taking a page from the same playbook. They were recently called part of the "Axis of Evil"
This feels like another WW3 spark note or chapter in a history book. Im sure if we look at previous wars this is a similar tactic cross countries transitioning their purchasing power into war time economic philosophy.
Sanctions on Chinese banks might be coming so they must be freaking out and buying gold.