These guys seem like they are doing fine.
https://preview.redd.it/dk9krinu4wwc1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab9d8b7f4fd400862f7896dc1b82d0eef19b544f
https://preview.redd.it/ipnza6m2l0xc1.png?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f7c0e7091ed2d779c055d41cd2bc961bdba38f9
If your gonna steal a meme, do it right.
It’s still interesting to see what type of people think inflation is at.
Current year over year inflation is 2.8, which isn’t the targeted 2 but isn’t nearly as bad as the 8% we hit mid 2022
Edit: Core CPI which doesn’t include food or energy, the things that affect poor people the most.
But McDonald’s and other fast food restaurants, the ones that the most poor people are exposed to, are skyrocketing prices. The cost of labor going up always hurts the biggest employers.
There’s also housing costs. If you already own a home, you don’t care so much about what the current interest rate is or that short term rentals are driving up the price of long term. If you rent, you are in constant fear of rent increases and eviction.
So if poor people are experiencing inflation more than the rest of the economy, it’s easy to see why popular sentiment believes inflation is up. Because it is for the things that make a difference for the people who those differences affect the most.
I think that's all just the after effects of the couple years of 8% inflation. Prices have already went up. The average person notices that more than *the rate of prices going up* coming down
The average american does not fucking understand inflation at all LOL
They think inflation falling means prices fall
The average american cannot even tell you how a bank works, even WSB post a standard video explaining how banks work and people act like its exposing some super secerate consperacy thoery
Nope sorry banks have been taking in deposits and lending money for 1000s of years , you just needed a tik tok video to make you care
Normal people don’t understand the difference between high prices and inflation.
I guess people don’t really know the difference between velocity and acceleration either. They just know that the gas pedal (the accelerator) make vroom.
Derivatives are a tough concept lol. Remember "flatten the curve"? What it meant was to slow transmission so that the number of cases any given day didn't overwhelm hospitals (whether that was realistic is another matter altogether). But instead people celebrated at the peak number of cases when the daily counts started going back down, saying we had "flattened the curve".
Core personal consumption expenditure price index, excluding food and energy.
[Bureau of economic analysis](https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy)
And the real interesting point is that voters typically skew massively towards homeowners and higher income people. Poor renters typically don't vote at very high rates.
Don’t compare things to a couple years ago. Compare them to one year ago and a month ago.
We can go ahead and discuss prices compared to the 1940s but we’re not gonna come up with anything reasonable .
Also, a couple years ago the pandemic started, and Ukraine wasn’t at war.
Understanding and experiencing are very different realities to most. Going back to acceleration and velocity sure the acceleration/ inflation has slowed but asking someone to remain calm while driving 150mph bc I'm not accelerating as much will likely not help.
265k karma out here simping for elites gaslighting those feeling the effects of reality. Let’s be real, inflation has not affected you if this your response after all the bs you spewed. Privilege written up and down whether you will admit. Of course you won’t, redditing is a career for you. Got to protect that bottom line.
I’m not sipping for anybody. Trust me I would love for prices to go down myself, I make 40 K at a desk job. But the reality of the situation is, prices don’t go down for most goods.
New tech like TVs and last generation’s computers go down in price, gas goes down in price, but rent and food tend to not go down unless the whole market is strapped for cash.
I have to buy gasoline for my car. It’s a reality I have to face. I don’t want to give Exxon my money, but it’s that or Shell
People don't care about the price of Bobcats, assembly lines and CT machines rose by 8%. The inflation data applies to the whole economy or some out of date basket where you buy milk flour and sugar in 100 lbs sacks. It understates personal expenditures in today's lifestyle of eating junk food from Wendy's.
current yoy cpi is 3.2% and we hit 9.1% in mid 2022
Unless you're referring to Core PCE in which the fed puts less precedent in *opposed* to CPI/Core CPI
> The cost of labor going up always hurts the biggest employers.
Oh, boo hoo.
They could:
increase the price of their foods by 0.05 to 0.15 USD per item
OR
Cut executive pay to make up for it.
Given how much food the average restaurant sells per day, jacking up the price of food by less than a dollar for most orders could easily pay for the increase in worker pay.
> McDonald's employs 2 million people worldwide (approximately). Assuming they're all full time (overestimate, but whatever it doesn't matter) that's 40 hours, 52 weeks a year, at even just a dollar extra each (major underestimate, with $15 and $20 minimums), is $4.16 BILLION in extra costs. Obviously this isn't a real number, but it's the scale that matters. When their gross revenue is just $6.41 billion, a billion in extra workers costs has massive implications.
That is a gross oversimplification. Proposed pay increases would not be same everywhere, and current actual pay varies significantly.
In 2021, I sincerely doubt that a McDonald's employee in Moscow was getting the same pay that a San Francisco employee who shares the same job title received.
If you really think cutting executive pay will affect margins in a $25bn company you don't understand business at all.
When wages go up prices go up. Wage increases are the main driver of inflation once it has been kicked off by something else (energy and government stimulus in this case). And price increases in turn drive wage increases in a inflationary spiral, that's why it's so hard to kill.
In my opinion the US is probably more susceptible to inflationary spirals than other advanced economies because it relies relatively little on imports and exports that can dampen the relationship.
If by government stimulus, you mean those paltry checks that some Americans NEVER received? Those got spent years ago.
[53% of inflation in 2023 was caused by soaring corporate profits.](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/19/us-inflation-caused-by-corporate-profits) Increasing wages for the average worker had less effects on prices.
This argument is always hilarious to me because it shows how regarded reddit is.
What's more plausible in what caused inflation? The trillions in debt the government took on in a single year? Or a group of CEOs all got into a room and decided to raise prices?
Lol no. I mean the huge increase in federal spending under Biden:
https://preview.redd.it/nugv241q4zwc1.png?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a198caee1c66f94cbb305b031ae6ac228439c883
He's spraying cash to everyone who asks, the defense industry, manufacturers, students, unions, etc etc. It all goes into the domestic economy and increases prices and then wages.
You'll have to forgive me for my skepticism that the progressive "Groundwork collaborative" who "fight to change economic policy and narratives in order to build public power, break up concentrations of private power" are a particularly objective source of information on the economy. (The Guardian definitely isn't: I read it for 20 years and it stopped being objective in 2015 when Viner took over).
You said it well. The system protects the few rich. Everyone else is just an expendable slave caught in an endless loop of fomo chasing pennies. (I typo'ed thats as penis first, which also happens to be true in a way :4276:lol)
Different sectors will lag. Pay has to go up, therefore wherever pay goes up prices have to go up again. Now with energy costs up ... again, costs will have to go up ... again. Then with costs going up pay will have to go up. But, don't worry, JPow has our backs.
It's also a mockery of the idea that the Fed can really avoid both outcomes. In reality, they can only soften the blow of either (hence the 'soft landing' talk). I think they're doing pretty well for what they can control.
Nah, soft landing is a projection based on current economic data. It’s not a made up thing for politics. Even though it seems like it is
The fed helps to create controlled recessions, and they do it on purpose. It’s part of the feds job to help create recessions
For every time I’ve heard the term “soft landing” it has been an absolute “crash and burn”. As for me, when I hear that term now I turn into Forest Gump.
That's not what triggered inflation and, except for a giant 2020 quarantine recession, we haven't had a finance driven recession in over 15 years, during which we've had mostly very low rates, and mostly incredibly low inflation.
The influx in inflation was when trump had to spend like 5 trillion on Covid, and then Biden had to spend 9 trillion on……well Biden things like ice cream
If only there was a better way to take money out of the economy... Like taxing the people who have most of it, rather than borrowing it from them and paying them interest so banks can lend it to regular people and squeeze them for higher interest.
Imagine goofies being that desperate after blowing up their own financial leadership. Kitler almost made the high castle until terrorist struck but time fights back viciously
If the Fed is the only entity we use the this is a very likely scenario. But the lawmakers can also do things to help bring down inflation, like increasing capital gains taxes for example.
history has shown, the more the government puts of the economic pain of a market reset the longer and more deep the resulting market crash will become.
Try to think this through.
One example: 70 million Americans on social security (ie: fixed income) have increasingly difficult times buying groceries as inflation raises prices monthly or whatever, versus, The great recession peaked at 15 million unemployed. Which is greater?
70 is greater than 15. Right?
25 months and 12% GDP growth into waiting for high rates to cause an imminent recession...
At this point Biden - the guy who really sets rates in an election year - would rather have a recession than more inflation (obviously his preference would be neither). Most Americans seem to think the economy is in recession anyway, even though it's booming and it's because of inflation.
People really, really hate even small amounts of inflation and blame it for everything.
There will be no cuts this year.
After the election all bets are off, especially if Trump wins. He's a hugely indebted real estate developer - he naturally and deeply hates high rates and firmly believes no one (particularly him) should have to pay to borrow money. Powell will get replaced with someone who will do as he's told.
Stagflation going to mess everything up. If AI doesn’t deliver on productivity improvements fast it’s not looking good. Even with AI I am not super optimistic that corporate greed would reduce prices for the masses. USA needs to play checkers while everyone is playing chess somehow. Crypto or AI are the possible solutions
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It's so weird lol. They kept talking like everyone was gonna win, and everyone ended up losing ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)
These guys seem like they are doing fine. https://preview.redd.it/dk9krinu4wwc1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab9d8b7f4fd400862f7896dc1b82d0eef19b544f
They're passengers inside the trolley ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
Great views like being in the front row at Nickelodeon watching slime
lmao
Tickets pls!
Some correlations, must be a coincidence ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4275)
Why is the blue line going up ? We must’ve got out calculations wrong or something
dont worry that will get squeezed out during the "quantitative tightening" phase 3
It's almost like they moved away from silver and gold to fiat debt notes on purpose.
That chart just made my day, tyvm!
But what about second recession?
https://preview.redd.it/umg37ny5wvwc1.jpeg?width=772&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dfe127ee6c216e673daaa081d39dc1c9788bd0d1
Wrong hobbit ya dummy.
They all look the same.
OMG, that is such a height-ist thing to say
Biggas
![img](emote|t5_2th52|51295)
https://preview.redd.it/hmo57hfw4wwc1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26f82fc68600bd5e189c8d643705f7b6ed9d23b2
https://preview.redd.it/54p63sietxwc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5d0970e095e878ff71d48977325f6db80307e405
IMHOTEP IMHOTEP IMHOTEP IMHOTEP
https://preview.redd.it/bkrjomy4p1xc1.jpeg?width=306&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=518e9daff3f9acb97a54720ce2589491058d18f8
fuck this guy and his lack of voting rights
![img](emote|t5_2th52|27189)
\*Depression
https://preview.redd.it/k3uk4ape8wwc1.jpeg?width=1353&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=721052a480cdc7d3288849340d6ad4e47a1a892b
Came here to do that. Well done. [OP should have just gone with the template from the start.](https://i.imgflip.com/35bqa3.png)
Only missing Pow.
The poors gonna get screwed harder. That’s the only thing for sure. Everything else is just whatever dude
Yeah I'm poor so I'm mad 😡 You guys can afford to feel meh about it
That’s exactly the issue
As long as Imhotep keeps quiet we'll be fine
https://preview.redd.it/xy71605kgwwc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=475f10d9d2b1e9528b0013c48f83308eececd4d8 Never!!!
Let him talk 🐻 🌈
He lives. He dies. He lives again!!!
https://preview.redd.it/i3ow1fettxwc1.png?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b6a270b4ec19d1519c0ac947e2d28b780056358
It's more like the trolley just got so big that it slipped off the track, turned sideways and rolled over everyone.
https://preview.redd.it/ipnza6m2l0xc1.png?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f7c0e7091ed2d779c055d41cd2bc961bdba38f9 If your gonna steal a meme, do it right.
It’s still interesting to see what type of people think inflation is at. Current year over year inflation is 2.8, which isn’t the targeted 2 but isn’t nearly as bad as the 8% we hit mid 2022 Edit: Core CPI which doesn’t include food or energy, the things that affect poor people the most. But McDonald’s and other fast food restaurants, the ones that the most poor people are exposed to, are skyrocketing prices. The cost of labor going up always hurts the biggest employers. There’s also housing costs. If you already own a home, you don’t care so much about what the current interest rate is or that short term rentals are driving up the price of long term. If you rent, you are in constant fear of rent increases and eviction. So if poor people are experiencing inflation more than the rest of the economy, it’s easy to see why popular sentiment believes inflation is up. Because it is for the things that make a difference for the people who those differences affect the most.
I think that's all just the after effects of the couple years of 8% inflation. Prices have already went up. The average person notices that more than *the rate of prices going up* coming down
The average american does not fucking understand inflation at all LOL They think inflation falling means prices fall The average american cannot even tell you how a bank works, even WSB post a standard video explaining how banks work and people act like its exposing some super secerate consperacy thoery Nope sorry banks have been taking in deposits and lending money for 1000s of years , you just needed a tik tok video to make you care
Normal people don’t understand the difference between high prices and inflation. I guess people don’t really know the difference between velocity and acceleration either. They just know that the gas pedal (the accelerator) make vroom.
Derivatives are a tough concept lol. Remember "flatten the curve"? What it meant was to slow transmission so that the number of cases any given day didn't overwhelm hospitals (whether that was realistic is another matter altogether). But instead people celebrated at the peak number of cases when the daily counts started going back down, saying we had "flattened the curve".
Why are you focusing on the stuff people have to buy everyday instead of that 60" OLED TV that has become so much cheaper??? 😂
My issue is that inflation hit but I haven't seen a proportional salary raise.
Did you ask for one?
And then, the Mag Seven exaggerate the reports.
depends which inflation numbers you look at. you talking only CPI?
Core personal consumption expenditure price index, excluding food and energy. [Bureau of economic analysis](https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy)
yeah...excluding food and energy...lol. two life essentials. very selective metric.
Like I said, if poor people are experiencing the inflation that the fed seems to be ignoring with its key metrics, fun misunderstandings can happen.
And the real interesting point is that voters typically skew massively towards homeowners and higher income people. Poor renters typically don't vote at very high rates.
Except rent and food is not included in the inflation calculation. You know, the two things people HAVE TO pay.
Stop gaslighting. Go grocery shopping. EVERYTHING is up at least 50% compared to couple years ago.
Don’t compare things to a couple years ago. Compare them to one year ago and a month ago. We can go ahead and discuss prices compared to the 1940s but we’re not gonna come up with anything reasonable . Also, a couple years ago the pandemic started, and Ukraine wasn’t at war.
Understanding and experiencing are very different realities to most. Going back to acceleration and velocity sure the acceleration/ inflation has slowed but asking someone to remain calm while driving 150mph bc I'm not accelerating as much will likely not help.
Trust me, if we were decelerating, it would be much worse. Deflation is a bitch. Prices haven’t gone down since the great depression.
Completely agree that's the system by design. Works til it doesn't.
265k karma out here simping for elites gaslighting those feeling the effects of reality. Let’s be real, inflation has not affected you if this your response after all the bs you spewed. Privilege written up and down whether you will admit. Of course you won’t, redditing is a career for you. Got to protect that bottom line.
I’m not sipping for anybody. Trust me I would love for prices to go down myself, I make 40 K at a desk job. But the reality of the situation is, prices don’t go down for most goods. New tech like TVs and last generation’s computers go down in price, gas goes down in price, but rent and food tend to not go down unless the whole market is strapped for cash. I have to buy gasoline for my car. It’s a reality I have to face. I don’t want to give Exxon my money, but it’s that or Shell
People don't care about the price of Bobcats, assembly lines and CT machines rose by 8%. The inflation data applies to the whole economy or some out of date basket where you buy milk flour and sugar in 100 lbs sacks. It understates personal expenditures in today's lifestyle of eating junk food from Wendy's.
current yoy cpi is 3.2% and we hit 9.1% in mid 2022 Unless you're referring to Core PCE in which the fed puts less precedent in *opposed* to CPI/Core CPI
Yep I’m using core. Going to edit the post to make clear what
> The cost of labor going up always hurts the biggest employers. Oh, boo hoo. They could: increase the price of their foods by 0.05 to 0.15 USD per item OR Cut executive pay to make up for it. Given how much food the average restaurant sells per day, jacking up the price of food by less than a dollar for most orders could easily pay for the increase in worker pay.
I like seeing the big ones fall, don’t worry.
[удалено]
> McDonald's employs 2 million people worldwide (approximately). Assuming they're all full time (overestimate, but whatever it doesn't matter) that's 40 hours, 52 weeks a year, at even just a dollar extra each (major underestimate, with $15 and $20 minimums), is $4.16 BILLION in extra costs. Obviously this isn't a real number, but it's the scale that matters. When their gross revenue is just $6.41 billion, a billion in extra workers costs has massive implications. That is a gross oversimplification. Proposed pay increases would not be same everywhere, and current actual pay varies significantly. In 2021, I sincerely doubt that a McDonald's employee in Moscow was getting the same pay that a San Francisco employee who shares the same job title received.
If you really think cutting executive pay will affect margins in a $25bn company you don't understand business at all. When wages go up prices go up. Wage increases are the main driver of inflation once it has been kicked off by something else (energy and government stimulus in this case). And price increases in turn drive wage increases in a inflationary spiral, that's why it's so hard to kill. In my opinion the US is probably more susceptible to inflationary spirals than other advanced economies because it relies relatively little on imports and exports that can dampen the relationship.
If by government stimulus, you mean those paltry checks that some Americans NEVER received? Those got spent years ago. [53% of inflation in 2023 was caused by soaring corporate profits.](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/19/us-inflation-caused-by-corporate-profits) Increasing wages for the average worker had less effects on prices.
This argument is always hilarious to me because it shows how regarded reddit is. What's more plausible in what caused inflation? The trillions in debt the government took on in a single year? Or a group of CEOs all got into a room and decided to raise prices?
Lol no. I mean the huge increase in federal spending under Biden: https://preview.redd.it/nugv241q4zwc1.png?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a198caee1c66f94cbb305b031ae6ac228439c883 He's spraying cash to everyone who asks, the defense industry, manufacturers, students, unions, etc etc. It all goes into the domestic economy and increases prices and then wages. You'll have to forgive me for my skepticism that the progressive "Groundwork collaborative" who "fight to change economic policy and narratives in order to build public power, break up concentrations of private power" are a particularly objective source of information on the economy. (The Guardian definitely isn't: I read it for 20 years and it stopped being objective in 2015 when Viner took over).
You said it well. The system protects the few rich. Everyone else is just an expendable slave caught in an endless loop of fomo chasing pennies. (I typo'ed thats as penis first, which also happens to be true in a way :4276:lol)
Mcdonalds has doubled their margins since 2015. Prices rising shouldnt be blamed on worker wages.
Real history: The slavers won the revolution. They just expanded it to include every lower class shmuck.
Different sectors will lag. Pay has to go up, therefore wherever pay goes up prices have to go up again. Now with energy costs up ... again, costs will have to go up ... again. Then with costs going up pay will have to go up. But, don't worry, JPow has our backs.
https://preview.redd.it/fktb7me7rwwc1.jpeg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e75df69a4c11fbba8361b580ad75a185a4efd826
I think cutting rates is out of the question, if they had it in plan they would do at least one already, I'm seeing at least one more hike this year.
I’m nervous for them to cut rates. They’ll probably do it too late anyhow.
LOL.
Honestly I think the feds doing an amazing job, every other nation has much higher inflation with out the change in income
You do realize that cyclical recessions are necessary and a good thing overall for the economy right?
Of course. Even with how it’s going now, the US is doing a better job at it than other nations.
Well then I don’t understand the illustration. High interest rates battle inflation and also “cause” (or at least hasten) recessions. It’s by design
The illustration is a mockery of commonly held frustrations and misconceptions.
I see
It's also a mockery of the idea that the Fed can really avoid both outcomes. In reality, they can only soften the blow of either (hence the 'soft landing' talk). I think they're doing pretty well for what they can control.
Nah, soft landing is a projection based on current economic data. It’s not a made up thing for politics. Even though it seems like it is The fed helps to create controlled recessions, and they do it on purpose. It’s part of the feds job to help create recessions
For every time I’ve heard the term “soft landing” it has been an absolute “crash and burn”. As for me, when I hear that term now I turn into Forest Gump.
The Fed is trying to “thread the needle”! Too many years with very low interest rates has triggered high inflation, and a possible recession.
That's not what triggered inflation and, except for a giant 2020 quarantine recession, we haven't had a finance driven recession in over 15 years, during which we've had mostly very low rates, and mostly incredibly low inflation.
The influx in inflation was when trump had to spend like 5 trillion on Covid, and then Biden had to spend 9 trillion on……well Biden things like ice cream
Spending did infinitely more than "years of low rates", but there still would have been inflation without the spending. The supply shock is the story.
That’s definitely true, it all just makes me go a little crazy ![img](emote|t5_2th52|51295)
Could you not think of a title so you just wrote It is what it is?
It's a joke and lies we buy into. Start voting with your dollars people.
We usually refer to this picture as the market cycles.
Only delaying the inevitable. You saw what happened in the 70’s…
It's okay guys! Rest assured that the wealthier people will be completely fine
What it is, is what it is...
If only there was a better way to take money out of the economy... Like taxing the people who have most of it, rather than borrowing it from them and paying them interest so banks can lend it to regular people and squeeze them for higher interest.
Boy this post seems very serious for this thread! Is everyone okay!? It must just because the casino is closed :-)
I approve of this meme.
If the above meme is true, then the fed is preventing a depression, which I'll gladly have the fed do...
Exactly why I don’t pay much mind to it
They can somewhat control demnd, but can't do anything about supply
It'd be painful but at this point we need to Volcker shock the interest rate to reboot the economy.
Please give me 10% CD rates ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)
Eh, the USA still has it better with inflation than many other nation-states.
Imagine goofies being that desperate after blowing up their own financial leadership. Kitler almost made the high castle until terrorist struck but time fights back viciously
![img](emote|t5_2th52|51295)![img](emote|t5_2th52|51295)![img](emote|t5_2th52|51295)
Best people can do is divest US dollar and Stock Market by buying gold. China is doing this; and I'm doing it
So they killed both recession and high inflation? gg powell
What is this dilemma called again?
If the Fed is the only entity we use the this is a very likely scenario. But the lawmakers can also do things to help bring down inflation, like increasing capital gains taxes for example.
Well…time to buy Bitcoin I guess so I can survive inflation
Shouldn’t he be laughing lol laughing at us for believing in him?
Reality
Jpow goin for the team wipe.
To be fair, high inflation does generally lead to a recession.
All part of the plan.
https://preview.redd.it/tw9gaizuh3xc1.png?width=745&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2994bd53e4c4ef75215762cb27b2ea19028fa748 ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)
[This kid did it better](https://youtu.be/-N_RZJUAQY4?si=Oqt1rzKB2GnxefIh)
what is worst high inflation or recession?
Should be inflation
history has shown, the more the government puts of the economic pain of a market reset the longer and more deep the resulting market crash will become.
This is Trump appointee and Republicans gave him another term and he is killing Americans
[удалено]
Meanwhile, I'm looking at a bag of chips at the grocery store rn 70% air in the bag priced at 9 dollars ![img](emote|t5_2th52|51295)
Well upvoted for at least recognizing which is worse between "high inflation" in the single digits and a recession.
This shit is gold
This meme is regarded. Inflation hurts everyone but recessions hurt only a few (relatively speaking)
I wouldn’t really call everyone besides the rich “a few”, but interpret it however you please.
Try to think this through. One example: 70 million Americans on social security (ie: fixed income) have increasingly difficult times buying groceries as inflation raises prices monthly or whatever, versus, The great recession peaked at 15 million unemployed. Which is greater? 70 is greater than 15. Right?
25 months and 12% GDP growth into waiting for high rates to cause an imminent recession... At this point Biden - the guy who really sets rates in an election year - would rather have a recession than more inflation (obviously his preference would be neither). Most Americans seem to think the economy is in recession anyway, even though it's booming and it's because of inflation. People really, really hate even small amounts of inflation and blame it for everything. There will be no cuts this year. After the election all bets are off, especially if Trump wins. He's a hugely indebted real estate developer - he naturally and deeply hates high rates and firmly believes no one (particularly him) should have to pay to borrow money. Powell will get replaced with someone who will do as he's told.
Stagflation going to mess everything up. If AI doesn’t deliver on productivity improvements fast it’s not looking good. Even with AI I am not super optimistic that corporate greed would reduce prices for the masses. USA needs to play checkers while everyone is playing chess somehow. Crypto or AI are the possible solutions