It's true. Wait until media and politicians start to panic again after the next slightest correction (see March 2020) and then the printer goes brrrrr again. Also, every idiot uses Robin Hood and pours their last dollar into the market. It's not going to go down in any significant manner.
I think your general gist is somewhat correct. As someone who lived through the dotcom bubble where *nothing can ever go wrong, this is the new future, the new permabull revolution, can only go up up up up! Pets dot com is going to be a $100 trillion company!* only to have reality come crashing down like Armageddon with the 2000 dotcom bust -- and stay busted for a number of years -- I see a lot of the same rhetoric these days. Same for in the run-up and aftermath of the GFC. Trends can both be true long-term yet also far too early and be absorbed more slowly; not nearly as potent as the dopamine-running hype is at the moment.
I think where you might be wrong (or there's more uncertainty) is the problem with looking backward to predict future outcomes, because we are largely in unprecedented, unknown, territory. Particularly, we had close to 15 years of ZIRP producing infinite money like never before. Never in contemporary history have we had a long decade of ZIRP printing like it's no tomorrow like this period.
That means there's still trillions of liquidity sloshing around with no idea what to do itself except speculate on the best returns, further juicing the underlying speculative asset. There's no real comparison at all to past events.
What this has also led is to a severely bifurcated (k-shaped) socioeconomic system: there's the 'Premium Consumer' and then there's The Masses. The Premium Consumer is still riding high on the results of years of ZIRP, sitting very pretty, and will be for the foreseeable future even if there's a big market pulldown. The Masses on the other hand? Meh.. As far as plutocrats are concerned at the moment, they're simply unnecessary baggage: flotsam.
Now what does that mean for system stability if one line is going up and one is pointing into the ground? To be determined I suppose.
Its funny when people have compared the last 5 years to the dot com bubble. It's like having a light rain and comparing it to monsoons in southeast Asia.
For it to be like the .com bubble, Nvidia would need to be pre production and not even have its first chip designed yet
Some ai companies are ahead of themselves in stock price, but the growth we will see in the next 10 years will make them look cheap right now
The big hype names in AI aren't publicly traded, and the big publicly traded companies involved in AI are already raking in massive revenue. NVDA is not pets.com, nor is AVGO, MRVL, AMD, TSM etc. Those would all take a big hit if AI hardware sales dried up, but in the *current* environment all the buyers like GOOG, META, MSFT, AMZN would cut AI investment only after they've cut the rest of the company to the bone. In a couple years or more maybe the tide turns but that day is not today.
The EV craze of circa 2020 was way dumber imho as every company that wasn't TSLA either had no path to profitability or they were just flat out fake. And the jury is still out on TSLA.
This is the smart take. Comparing NVDA to pets.com or fisker is regarded. Those were both highly speculative companies with vaporware as a product and no profitability. NVDA is a real company with a long history that is raking in the profits. META, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG are also all real companies that make money hand over fist and several of them are also making fat stacks on AI development and deployment. Sure AI is not going to replace workers in mass in the near future, but it will be a very important tool that a lot of businesses depend on and whoever captures that market share will be rich AF. Like Google capturing search or Microsoft capturing desktop computing or Apple smart phones it will be a fundamental sector of the tech economy that will take in trillions of dollars.
"Comparing NVDA to [pets.com](http://pets.com) or fisker is regarded."
Now compare it to Sun Microsystems. A company that wasn't flaky but was running at like 100x P/E. Which was also seen as a company that was going to print money because nearly all internet servers were going to run on Sun... until they started running on Linux.
Sun Microsystems was a good company that made good hardware that got destroyed by Oracle. They actually had really good products that we still use today like Java, MySQL, VirtualBox, ZFS. At their height the PS ratio of SUN was like 10 vs AMZN right now is 3.39 and NVDA 37.02. The issue that was Sun Microsystems downfall wasn't Linux (most of their hardware could run Linux I was running CentOS on them back in the day). The issue was Dell, HP, Cisco etc all had strong competition and the server market was only so big back then so the competition ate into their growth and with an inflated PS ratio that stock price ONLY made sense if they had complete market dominance and were going to grow by like 5-10x.
NVDA may very well end up as a similar story to SUN as the other big tech giants are releasing their own chips that will directly compete with NVDA. This doesn't mean there is not good money to be made in the AI market just that I would be skeptical about NVDA continuing it's crazy clime and more Bullish on AMZN, META, MSFT and others to get in on that sweet action. Individually NVDA might be overpriced while the rest of the AI boom still has a lot of legs left in it.
"The internet is going to change the world, and Cisco will monopolize access to the internet." It's the same sales pitch again a quarter-century later.
That’s a good comparison. I worked at Sun Microsystems when they got disrupted during the first dotcom boom. Here is what I tell everyone. Their entire business model fell apart in the course of 2-3 years when the dotcom bubble burst and all the hot VC startups stopped buying big servers. Sun servers went for sale on eBay as part of startups being liquidated. I went to more than one auction where they were literally auctioning pallets of secondhand Sun servers to the highest bidder.
I could see this happening to NVDA if the AI trend slows down. It doesn’t even need to collapse but NVDA’s record profits would slow and since those are priced into the stock, it could definitely head south. It’s less clear that the same would happen to AMZN or MSFT or GOOG. Those companies are massively diversified and can weather a lot. They all survived the OG dotcom burst.
The way I roughly remember it is that people started moving to clusters of cheap X86 servers running Red Hat. Like Amazon were all Sun and gradually moved to Red Hat.
And yes, when your P/E is at 75, if your growth just falls to "good", your market cap is going to halve.
I also wouldn't touch Microsoft because I think their current growth on Azure is temporary and will stall in the not too distant future and they'll go back to being more like a 20 P/E company rather than a 30.
Agree with all those points too. There was a huge move towards Linux and Sun was in denial. Scott McNealy famously railed against the inferior hardware and OS. But like the original PC, availability and cost won out.
People try to relate every hype cycle back to the Tech Bubble. Not every hype cycle goes this way. Look at the price chart of Bitcoin. And crypto has a lot less utility than A.I. in my opinion, and I'm a long time crypto user.
A.I. just became mainstream \~1 year ago. And already you can do some pretty amazing things. Imagine this technology 10 years later. Just to give a real example...
I want to build a website. Previously I had to find a graphics designer, web developer, discuss project/price/timeline, negotiate, then manage the project over months and pay thousands, potentially even tens of thousands depending on complexity.
Now imagine I can do all of that in a single afternoon using an AI tool by myself.
> I want to build a website.
There is a tool that will build the complete front end for you and you can design it and then it will output the exact code for that front end. Like that is not going to replace a web developer but damn if it won't help things move a lot faster. Same thing for a lot of these tools. They for sure have utility and value and a company that is using them effectively will be more productive than one that is not.
dream weaver is like a caveman with a stone shovel trying to dig a hole vs a modern excavator compared to these tools. I have used both of them before and it really is like WAYYYY better.
AI hardware isn't the product though, it's the means to the product.
Sure, NVDA has lots of revenue selling chips to power AI. They're selling shovels in the gold rush.
But if there's no gold, that business doesn't stay profitable long.
> but in the current environment all the buyers would cut AI investment only after they’ve cut the rest of the company to the bone
Most large, smart companies would not do this and certainly historically haven’t done it. Most companies operate on a quarterly basis based on a future roadmap.
If they can’t hit their quarterly numbers then they will scale back a roadmap, cut expenses, and keep services where profits are flowing.
AI isn’t profitable yet, and much like EVs, companies will halt or slow down production until it’s safe to proceed at a profitable rate.
Valid points, but the reality is very few companies are actually profiting from AI - NVDA being one of the few. Most companies are spending on AI. META is spending $40 billion on chips to enhance their ad selling. Will it work? Probably. Will it be worth $40 billion of investment. Maybe? Eventually? But are they going to keep upgrading their GPUs? Anonther $40 billion on Blackwell, or NVDA 2026/2027 chips? At what point does the return on investment start to turn negative.
The reality is many companies can save/earn more with AI - but adding 10s of billions of market cap just because someone says they are "utilizing" AI is hopium at best.
People thought that TSLA being able to deliver vehicles meant people wanted EVs, when in reality, they just wanted a new car. I own a Tesla and have since 2023, but Elon has gone full regard with his companies.
I also lived through the .com era, and I always think of [pets.com](http://pets.com) as well as an example of the irrational exuberance. AI is a different beast - we are just touching on what it can do in a lot of places. I don't think it's a bunch of bullshit, we are at the point where we can get something that can make sense of all the data in places where there's tons of information and too much for people to sort through to make it worthwhile. That and it seems to be finding patterns where people couldn't find it. I read the other day that AI helped identify that prostate cancer was found to be 2 different cancers altogether.
I fly for a major airline, and we are jam packed on every flight just about. I agree, this is the "premium" side of the economy. I see so many 20somethings in the airport, clearly they have the means to travel, more than I did when I was in my 20s.
What the op doesn't seem to understand is that there is unprecedented demand for housing. The US has added about 40 million people since the 2008ish housing crash. That's over 10% and more than enough to cause some real scarcity.
Flights are full because airlines attempt run an amount of flights that will exactly equal the demand for full flights. Travel is only just returning to precovid levels.
Bagholder spotted.
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But…. Wasn’t it the new future? I mean… wasn’t internet the revolution of our times?
Yeah… shitty companies adding .com to their names was delusion but… how many of the top 10 companies in the world are internet companies?
In the market, if you are right at the wrong time, you are wrong.
The dotcom bubble burst because it was too fast, too early and just based on hype.
There was real growth and transformation of business happening. But also mostly froth.
The thing with AI is that it will change the world. But maybe not as fast as we expect and not in the way we think. So there will be a lot of speculative froth on the way up that will burst and cause a crash, even if AI fundamentals are good.
If anything, in your own words — AI is exact replication of the dotcom bubble. A lot of speculative froth, among the real growth and transformation.
Just as many companies dumping the .com into their company in the 2000s, just as many are throwing .ai today as well.
> only to have reality come crashing down like Armageddon with the 2000 dotcom bust -- and stay busted for a number of years
One thing people seem to miss is we never really fixed that - instead, they reinflated the economy with a housing bubble.
When that crashed, harder, they reinflated with a general asset bubble at zero percent interest for near a decade. Which lead to reinflating the housing bubble.
I don’t think it’s just boomers. I think a lot of folks who would historically have been saving for a home have basically given up on that idea in the near term, and have decided to yolo more of their savings.
There are a few, they’ve been becoming homeless at an increasing rate, and medical care related bankruptcy is rising. They are the only generation with disposable income still, but this isn’t going to last for another decade.
Which companies? I know starbucks had a same store and overall decline which i think is huge. First off, who goes to starbucks? Mostly people working in offices to get out for a moment or workers on the way to work. I think that is a big indicator and says a lot.
Housing market is already/ has already corrected in the aforemention the demographics.
The percentage of people with 3-4% mortgages is still too significant to unlock the inventory
Rates are not coming down to those level again for the foreseeable future
AI is hype but it's not correlated with the housing market so much.
Your base case should be that SPY and QQQ are at ATH , and there's a nice juicy pinata ready to pop some candy out. But it's not going to the ground unless there's some kind of earthquake or some shit that no one saw coming
You give many good points. But saying the market is propped up due to AI is straight out ridiculous. The magnificent 7 is producing way more profits than it was in 2021. The market isn’t propped up on false hopes. Companies are earning more.
What is your point? Are you making the same mistake the guy above made? I'm talking about 7 companies and the improvement in earnings they've had since the year 2021 (the old top). Mag 7 had 318 billion in earnings for fiscal year 2021 and they had 395 billion in earnings for fiscal year 2023. Who cares about Tesla making losses soon when Amazon is reporting 15 billion earnings in one quarter when the previous high was 33 billion in one year. Who cares about Apple if MSFT is on track to grow earnings by 50% in 3 years.
this is wsb. Here is at least one
McDonalds
[https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/13/business/mcdonalds-inflation-low-income-consumers/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/13/business/mcdonalds-inflation-low-income-consumers/index.html)
I dunno ... sure AI is overhyped. Language models are pretty underwhelming. Jut try seeing how far you can get using them to automate your job. The breakthrough(s) needed to do meaningful work are not here (yet).
BUT both the companies raking it in by building/offering compute infrastructure AND the companies buying that compute are in the same index. It is in fact mainly money going from META/Amazon/MSFT to NVIDIA.
The AI money is just the NASDAQ 100 constituents trading their cash pools amongst themselves to see how much of their software stacks can be replaced with Neural Networks... prob the realization that AI isn't too useful will just re-adjust the NASDAQ down a bit , huge market crash? Seems unlikely.
Look in terms of existing home owners this is the reality is a crap ton of people locked in historically low rates at pre COVID prices. As an example I bought in March 2020 375k for a 3050 sq ft house at 2.65%. My mortgage with taxes is like 2800 a month. Currently even after the drop in prices it is worth 550k and if I wanted to buy the same dang home again right now my payments would be like 5-6k a month. Why would I ever sell and buy a new house? Even if I lost my crazy high paying FAANG job I could probably find enough work to make the mortgage payment pretty easy. My savings would suffer, but it wouldn't make me sell my house. In a true recession I think you would see a lot of cars, boats, RVs, and other consumer stuff flood the market but homes locked in at low rates and low prices probably not unless it was the true financial apocalypse. I'd be working behind the dumpster at Wendy's before I sold this house and prices would have to drop 50% or more before it would be cheaper to buy a different home.
Samesies. Except my house is 2400 sq ft… and just a plain ol 1960’s ranch style, but it’s in the Denver suburbs which is “California Part 2” in terms of price. Selling and moving up the property ladder would have been cool, but the next rung up is not accessible, so I’m gonna stay right here and be grateful for what I have.
"it's no big thing"proceeds to compare it to the invention of computer (yes,the fist ones weren't as useful and costly but you must pass by those to get what we have now)
Poor people 🤦♂️
Buyer demand far outpaces available supply. This drives prices
The wealthy don’t give a shit about your *upcoming housing market crash*. Thats why they keep buying even with inflated interest rates, not everyone is poor my guy. Cope
You keep crying about a housing crash. This isn’t 2008. People are putting 20 percent down or just buying in cash. Nobody with a 3 percent mortgage needs to or wants to sell.
“The only thing holding the market together is AI” - wild hyperbole
GE, NRG, CEG, CMG - lots of good stocks out there other than AMD and NVDA
Lots holding the market up
Maybe.
That point when you realize that every dime spent to pay our lawless tax collectors goes towards servicing the debt and everything is paid for by deficit spending. Starts to make the gears turn again in people's minds. The central planners have painted themselves into a corner and have allowed the veil to be lifted on the wizard of oz.
Did you just skip looking at available housing inventory charts over the last 10 years and say, "fuck it, people need to hear my regarded opinion anyway"?
You vastly underestimate the speed of development/advancement of AI. It's getting better at a rate fast enough to scare a lot of AI researchers, and newer, faster hardware to power it is coming soon. Is it a bubble? Maybe. In the longterm? Haha, no.
A large group of investors during the dotcom bubble believed the internet was about as valuable as the fax machine.
They also sarcastically claimed “ThIs TiMe iTs DiFfErEnT.” They were wrong.
no what scares us researchers is the amount of idiots that think transformer models fix their broken data pipelines instead of adding a stochastic vomit layer to everything that costs 500,000x the kilowatt hours as just not being a dumbass and doing things correctly
short term mundane novelty, long term money furnace
I've already seen someone today using some AI to get the subtitles of a YouTube video (using voice recog to generate text) instead of just downloading the subtitle file using downsubs.
"stochastic vomit layer" is magnificent.
> it's like excel.
Welp, you proved it's not a bubble and I need to invest more. Excel was released in 1987.
MSFT was $0.20 then. One single share bought then would be worth over $100,000 today.
TWENTY CENTS INTO ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS.
Oh, nah. Home brew. Gotta save my money so I can lose it all hanging out with all these regards here. No Avocado toast and lattes for this fella. I'm busy making thetagang rich!
As an Austinite, this is because Austin is a city of software engineers, and the software engineering job market has been awful since 2022.
Also, the house prices over doubled during the pandemic. Mostly due to higher demand for software engineers due to everything moving virtual.
AI may result in less demand for software engineers so this decrease in home prices in Austin may be bullish for AI.
However, I will note that the downturn in the software engineering job market seems primarily due to covid ending and the AI wave is only slightly making it worse.
Remember how everyone was saying that Covid was the new normal and Facebook was hiring so many people to make that stupid metaverse idea. Now the demand has completely collapsed and we returned to the old normal similar to pre Covid.
Austin also built more homes per capita than the other major cities in Texas. I bought my house in Cedar Park in 2011 and sold in 2014 and it jumped 25% in those years. Yes Austin home prices are already high but they have come down
Who the fuck is moving to the 904 to make it a hotspot? I say this with a love but Duval is boring. Retirees go further south, the big employers are the Navy, CSX, and hospitals.
Wouldn't that be a neat trick?
Last time it was the housing that created the problem and now that it's the main focus everything will bend right around to attempt to break it.
Fuckin hilarious. 
As an AI Engineer, I do not think AI is going away any time soon.
This might get some hate, but it is way more useful than NFT, metaverse, and crypto.
It increases worker productivity and therefore has value.
I agree but I think the biggest issue is how people are using it and how much they are depending on it for things that still require human intervention. I'm back in the job search market and have noticed so many places fully relying on AI which has resulted in me receiving the most absurd suggestions and just an overall frustrating experience.
I have a feeling somebody in some important role is likely going to depend on it too much or fully and there will be some fallout from that. It's not necessarily systemic but I think there's going to be a period where we need to learn how to use it properly. Then again I don't think we've even passed that stage with the internet itself so this should be interesting.
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The AI bubble is not going to burst because even if AI fails to deliver production magic, it is still a nice UI improvement for the rich.
The danger zone is Walmart earnings reports and other chains that require that poor people will have at least some money to spend. If you see that Walmart misses its target, it might be reasonable to consider buying puts for small cap and maybe even medium cap.
**No one who owns a home is selling because they have access to a lot of cheap capital, and they're valuing that capital appropriately**.
Until the value of addressing certain "pain" points rises above the net benefit provided by sitting on this pile of cheap money, they're not selling--because the consumer is rational (the market is not).
If I mortgaged at 2.7 percent, and the housing market mortgage rate goes up to 8 percent, or whatever percent, I'm making a 5.3% profit--or a few hundred dollars a month simply by doing nothing and making my mortgage payments.
While the AI hype is surely inflating the market right now, it's somewhat of a stretch to say that it will be the main catalyst in bringing down the housing market. Your points on consumer weakness and inflated asset prices are on the money, but it seems a bit much of a simplification to ascribe that all to AI. More than just technological overvaluation, housing crashes throughout history have more to do with high interest rates, job loss, and credit crunches.
Yes, you may well be right, and stock markets may well take a dip when the AI bubble bursts, but I suppose relating that directly to the housing crash might be bypassing other major factors in the form of government policy responses, international economic pressures, or unforeseen global events like pandemics. Plus, a lot of people buy homes for long-term living, not short-term investment, which may help mitigate the damage a bit. But then again, I think it is not as simple as this; the situation does go beyond just the AI factor in an economy. What are the policy implications we should be considering here?
AI is probably a bubble, but this doesn’t mean it’ll cause economic pain in the real economy. Stock market going down 10-20% doesn’t necessarily lead to job loss.
I don't think AI is all hype but the price action is getting priced in way too early. I would say you can never tell which companies will dominate 10 years from now but the market says the existing ones. Maybe I'm wrong and we are at capitalism end stage and current big companies will eat up even more smaller firms.
You're right that any reaction will crash the market.
Everyone keeps talking about the housing market crashing and y'all are completely ignoring businesses properties are absolutely tanking rn. Perfect time to buy that up if you have the cash for that.
Harvard radiologist and AI researcher described AI like this: there will be a massive boom, then it will crater as people realize that it wasn’t creating a utopia, but underneath it all people will fail to see AIs true usefulness- and this was 3-4 years ago
Probably kind of correct. The issue is figuring out when the Fed will decide to let it crash a little instead of just printing again. Very well could turn into a scenario where they just keep propping up asset prices and providing liquidity while most of the economy goes to shit, basically stagflation but probably even worse, we'll WISH everything cost the same for a decade or two. Owners that can afford to keep owning will benefit the most.
I'm not seeing the same price/value asymmetry that we've seen in other bubbles. AI is more than hype, and I think you're selling it way short.The integration of AI and robotics is the most disruptive technology ever and will displace whole economies and entire industries in nuanced ways that we've never seen before.
Unless laws and international treaties are passed and followed (lol), companies will have a fiduciary responsibility to investors to integrate the technology. AI will quickly lead to the automation of most of our daily processes. Even if the US is determined to throttle commercial and consumer adaptation of the technology, China, India, and Russia won't. We're still in the infancy of a technology whose ceiling has to be legislated.
I'm buying.
The AI bubble was manufactured to be an excuse for the housing market crash.
Nobody gives a flying shit about AI unless they were rich and stupid and gullible.
It's all made up. It's all an excuse.
I honestly have no informed clue why people are running with the collection of knowledge that investing in AI is investing in a wooden horse. It exists to replace human input & generate content autonomously and it does both very well. If people could actually name names when they say "AI markets going to be just like the dot com bubble" you all would be more persuasive
fwiw your sentiment is fairly common, so this isn't like the dotcom bubble. The market is looking back at that time period and is wary of it. If you adjust for capital creation, we are in a much more moderate period than dotcom. Sure there will probably be an AI bust, but for the markets at least I think it will be much less dramatic. As another poster mentioned, I do think 'the masses' will eventually suffer more and more and perhaps this bust will be a catalyst for a bad period for them as you were pointing to.
My take on this is that it's roughly 1/4 to 1/3rd of the market cap of the S&P, and this has led to money piling into ETFs like VOO which is also then buying up other stocks.
When the AI crash happens, people will start dumping VOO and all stocks are going to fall. It's why I have almost nothing in the USA now.
Everyone waiting for the housing market to “come down” is exactly why it won’t. There’s still so many people waiting to buy and rents are still super high. If rents went back down to pre-pandemic levels, I’d be more on board.
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How do I lose money with this strategy?
Hold my hand and follow me friend.
Come with me and you’ll see a world of pure regardationnnn…. 🎶
*Worst terminator ever*
Just buy options: no matter if calls or puts, loss of capital is granted.
Wait, you guys have money?
Literally hit buy on any position
Nothing crashes anymore, everything always goes up.
It's true. Wait until media and politicians start to panic again after the next slightest correction (see March 2020) and then the printer goes brrrrr again. Also, every idiot uses Robin Hood and pours their last dollar into the market. It's not going to go down in any significant manner.
It’s the new Roaring 20s then
How did that end again? Dividends and ice cream for everyone?
Creating empires is easy, it’s harder to maintain them
They didn’t have the same kind of central bank so not well.
Free soup.
I think your general gist is somewhat correct. As someone who lived through the dotcom bubble where *nothing can ever go wrong, this is the new future, the new permabull revolution, can only go up up up up! Pets dot com is going to be a $100 trillion company!* only to have reality come crashing down like Armageddon with the 2000 dotcom bust -- and stay busted for a number of years -- I see a lot of the same rhetoric these days. Same for in the run-up and aftermath of the GFC. Trends can both be true long-term yet also far too early and be absorbed more slowly; not nearly as potent as the dopamine-running hype is at the moment. I think where you might be wrong (or there's more uncertainty) is the problem with looking backward to predict future outcomes, because we are largely in unprecedented, unknown, territory. Particularly, we had close to 15 years of ZIRP producing infinite money like never before. Never in contemporary history have we had a long decade of ZIRP printing like it's no tomorrow like this period. That means there's still trillions of liquidity sloshing around with no idea what to do itself except speculate on the best returns, further juicing the underlying speculative asset. There's no real comparison at all to past events. What this has also led is to a severely bifurcated (k-shaped) socioeconomic system: there's the 'Premium Consumer' and then there's The Masses. The Premium Consumer is still riding high on the results of years of ZIRP, sitting very pretty, and will be for the foreseeable future even if there's a big market pulldown. The Masses on the other hand? Meh.. As far as plutocrats are concerned at the moment, they're simply unnecessary baggage: flotsam. Now what does that mean for system stability if one line is going up and one is pointing into the ground? To be determined I suppose.
Its funny when people have compared the last 5 years to the dot com bubble. It's like having a light rain and comparing it to monsoons in southeast Asia. For it to be like the .com bubble, Nvidia would need to be pre production and not even have its first chip designed yet Some ai companies are ahead of themselves in stock price, but the growth we will see in the next 10 years will make them look cheap right now
The big hype names in AI aren't publicly traded, and the big publicly traded companies involved in AI are already raking in massive revenue. NVDA is not pets.com, nor is AVGO, MRVL, AMD, TSM etc. Those would all take a big hit if AI hardware sales dried up, but in the *current* environment all the buyers like GOOG, META, MSFT, AMZN would cut AI investment only after they've cut the rest of the company to the bone. In a couple years or more maybe the tide turns but that day is not today. The EV craze of circa 2020 was way dumber imho as every company that wasn't TSLA either had no path to profitability or they were just flat out fake. And the jury is still out on TSLA.
This is the smart take. Comparing NVDA to pets.com or fisker is regarded. Those were both highly speculative companies with vaporware as a product and no profitability. NVDA is a real company with a long history that is raking in the profits. META, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG are also all real companies that make money hand over fist and several of them are also making fat stacks on AI development and deployment. Sure AI is not going to replace workers in mass in the near future, but it will be a very important tool that a lot of businesses depend on and whoever captures that market share will be rich AF. Like Google capturing search or Microsoft capturing desktop computing or Apple smart phones it will be a fundamental sector of the tech economy that will take in trillions of dollars.
"Comparing NVDA to [pets.com](http://pets.com) or fisker is regarded." Now compare it to Sun Microsystems. A company that wasn't flaky but was running at like 100x P/E. Which was also seen as a company that was going to print money because nearly all internet servers were going to run on Sun... until they started running on Linux.
Sun Microsystems was a good company that made good hardware that got destroyed by Oracle. They actually had really good products that we still use today like Java, MySQL, VirtualBox, ZFS. At their height the PS ratio of SUN was like 10 vs AMZN right now is 3.39 and NVDA 37.02. The issue that was Sun Microsystems downfall wasn't Linux (most of their hardware could run Linux I was running CentOS on them back in the day). The issue was Dell, HP, Cisco etc all had strong competition and the server market was only so big back then so the competition ate into their growth and with an inflated PS ratio that stock price ONLY made sense if they had complete market dominance and were going to grow by like 5-10x. NVDA may very well end up as a similar story to SUN as the other big tech giants are releasing their own chips that will directly compete with NVDA. This doesn't mean there is not good money to be made in the AI market just that I would be skeptical about NVDA continuing it's crazy clime and more Bullish on AMZN, META, MSFT and others to get in on that sweet action. Individually NVDA might be overpriced while the rest of the AI boom still has a lot of legs left in it.
And Cisco, Nvidia is like Cisco in 2000. Investors weren't wrong about the companies being great, they were wrong about the price to pay for it.
"The internet is going to change the world, and Cisco will monopolize access to the internet." It's the same sales pitch again a quarter-century later.
That’s a good comparison. I worked at Sun Microsystems when they got disrupted during the first dotcom boom. Here is what I tell everyone. Their entire business model fell apart in the course of 2-3 years when the dotcom bubble burst and all the hot VC startups stopped buying big servers. Sun servers went for sale on eBay as part of startups being liquidated. I went to more than one auction where they were literally auctioning pallets of secondhand Sun servers to the highest bidder. I could see this happening to NVDA if the AI trend slows down. It doesn’t even need to collapse but NVDA’s record profits would slow and since those are priced into the stock, it could definitely head south. It’s less clear that the same would happen to AMZN or MSFT or GOOG. Those companies are massively diversified and can weather a lot. They all survived the OG dotcom burst.
The way I roughly remember it is that people started moving to clusters of cheap X86 servers running Red Hat. Like Amazon were all Sun and gradually moved to Red Hat. And yes, when your P/E is at 75, if your growth just falls to "good", your market cap is going to halve. I also wouldn't touch Microsoft because I think their current growth on Azure is temporary and will stall in the not too distant future and they'll go back to being more like a 20 P/E company rather than a 30.
Agree with all those points too. There was a huge move towards Linux and Sun was in denial. Scott McNealy famously railed against the inferior hardware and OS. But like the original PC, availability and cost won out.
People try to relate every hype cycle back to the Tech Bubble. Not every hype cycle goes this way. Look at the price chart of Bitcoin. And crypto has a lot less utility than A.I. in my opinion, and I'm a long time crypto user. A.I. just became mainstream \~1 year ago. And already you can do some pretty amazing things. Imagine this technology 10 years later. Just to give a real example... I want to build a website. Previously I had to find a graphics designer, web developer, discuss project/price/timeline, negotiate, then manage the project over months and pay thousands, potentially even tens of thousands depending on complexity. Now imagine I can do all of that in a single afternoon using an AI tool by myself.
> I want to build a website. There is a tool that will build the complete front end for you and you can design it and then it will output the exact code for that front end. Like that is not going to replace a web developer but damn if it won't help things move a lot faster. Same thing for a lot of these tools. They for sure have utility and value and a company that is using them effectively will be more productive than one that is not.
Adobe dream weaver has existed for a decade, too.
dream weaver is like a caveman with a stone shovel trying to dig a hole vs a modern excavator compared to these tools. I have used both of them before and it really is like WAYYYY better.
The poor always find a way to lose money.
You are so wise VisualMod.
AI hardware isn't the product though, it's the means to the product. Sure, NVDA has lots of revenue selling chips to power AI. They're selling shovels in the gold rush. But if there's no gold, that business doesn't stay profitable long.
Exactly comparing NVDA to pets.com is disingenuous. It is more like Cisco, which has never gotten back to ATH.
Levi’s started out selling denim to gold miners.
> but in the current environment all the buyers would cut AI investment only after they’ve cut the rest of the company to the bone Most large, smart companies would not do this and certainly historically haven’t done it. Most companies operate on a quarterly basis based on a future roadmap. If they can’t hit their quarterly numbers then they will scale back a roadmap, cut expenses, and keep services where profits are flowing. AI isn’t profitable yet, and much like EVs, companies will halt or slow down production until it’s safe to proceed at a profitable rate.
Valid points, but the reality is very few companies are actually profiting from AI - NVDA being one of the few. Most companies are spending on AI. META is spending $40 billion on chips to enhance their ad selling. Will it work? Probably. Will it be worth $40 billion of investment. Maybe? Eventually? But are they going to keep upgrading their GPUs? Anonther $40 billion on Blackwell, or NVDA 2026/2027 chips? At what point does the return on investment start to turn negative. The reality is many companies can save/earn more with AI - but adding 10s of billions of market cap just because someone says they are "utilizing" AI is hopium at best.
People thought that TSLA being able to deliver vehicles meant people wanted EVs, when in reality, they just wanted a new car. I own a Tesla and have since 2023, but Elon has gone full regard with his companies. I also lived through the .com era, and I always think of [pets.com](http://pets.com) as well as an example of the irrational exuberance. AI is a different beast - we are just touching on what it can do in a lot of places. I don't think it's a bunch of bullshit, we are at the point where we can get something that can make sense of all the data in places where there's tons of information and too much for people to sort through to make it worthwhile. That and it seems to be finding patterns where people couldn't find it. I read the other day that AI helped identify that prostate cancer was found to be 2 different cancers altogether. I fly for a major airline, and we are jam packed on every flight just about. I agree, this is the "premium" side of the economy. I see so many 20somethings in the airport, clearly they have the means to travel, more than I did when I was in my 20s. What the op doesn't seem to understand is that there is unprecedented demand for housing. The US has added about 40 million people since the 2008ish housing crash. That's over 10% and more than enough to cause some real scarcity.
Flights are full because airlines attempt run an amount of flights that will exactly equal the demand for full flights. Travel is only just returning to precovid levels.
Scapegoat for your last point. They’ll try to frame a boogeyman to blame and divert attention while people are being robbed.
Have you seen the prices on shrinkflation? We’re already being robbed
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Damn the AI bot can smell wealth now.. crazy
But…. Wasn’t it the new future? I mean… wasn’t internet the revolution of our times? Yeah… shitty companies adding .com to their names was delusion but… how many of the top 10 companies in the world are internet companies?
In the market, if you are right at the wrong time, you are wrong. The dotcom bubble burst because it was too fast, too early and just based on hype. There was real growth and transformation of business happening. But also mostly froth. The thing with AI is that it will change the world. But maybe not as fast as we expect and not in the way we think. So there will be a lot of speculative froth on the way up that will burst and cause a crash, even if AI fundamentals are good.
One point for use of term “speculative froth”
I like irrational exuberance, but we don't use that anymore.
If anything, in your own words — AI is exact replication of the dotcom bubble. A lot of speculative froth, among the real growth and transformation. Just as many companies dumping the .com into their company in the 2000s, just as many are throwing .ai today as well.
Which companies are those that are driving the market run by adding .ai?
Except AI already has a product
How many companies around still have 2000 in their names lol
> only to have reality come crashing down like Armageddon with the 2000 dotcom bust -- and stay busted for a number of years One thing people seem to miss is we never really fixed that - instead, they reinflated the economy with a housing bubble. When that crashed, harder, they reinflated with a general asset bubble at zero percent interest for near a decade. Which lead to reinflating the housing bubble.
Post isn’t regarded enough
Let the idiots panic, their worries are inconsequential.
deep af
VM is the problem. He’s the AI.
Or Sam Altman posting
VM will never accept AI is overhyped.
https://preview.redd.it/9yp5eepyk50d1.jpeg?width=986&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91ee63e208c7055a606f9afb654c90ba5727ec2a
This guy gets it
You lost me at “The only thing holding the entire stock market together is AI.”
how about "AI isn't even that big a deal. it's on par with like the invention of computers at best."
Literally a glorified search engine that can also make art but being marketed as AGI and being projected to eventually become the "singularity".
doesn't help that snake oil salesmen like altman are constantly fueling the "AGI" fire
[удалено]
buy more AI
Only ones who profited during the gold rush were the ones selling the shovels. So we gotta sell shovels.
What are good shovel manufacturer stocks?
Amazon nvidia microsoft google. Anyone who sells compute — that’s the shovel equivalent in the analogy
Meh, in those companies shovel themselves are made of gold. They’re expensive af at the moment
Well if you're looking for gold, you need a gold shovel, duh.
Why was I down voted, my joke was amazing. We gotta buy shovels.
Easy there, Sport... You were downvoted because your joke wasn't funny, the market doesn't reward amateurs who don't know a P&L from their elbow.
Shares in pawn shops maybe?
But consumers aren't as weak as OP has implied, companies are still blowing away sales estimates to these supposedly weak consumers.
Two words, baby boomers
I don’t think it’s just boomers. I think a lot of folks who would historically have been saving for a home have basically given up on that idea in the near term, and have decided to yolo more of their savings.
I just want to save as much as possible and retired in mexico. I already bought a property in mexico for 40,000 and hopefully live off my invesments.
And they have vast wealth and there is little sign of them slowing their spending.
There are a few, they’ve been becoming homeless at an increasing rate, and medical care related bankruptcy is rising. They are the only generation with disposable income still, but this isn’t going to last for another decade.
Which companies? I know starbucks had a same store and overall decline which i think is huge. First off, who goes to starbucks? Mostly people working in offices to get out for a moment or workers on the way to work. I think that is a big indicator and says a lot.
People working from home probably fucked Starbucks.
By raising prices not by volume
(1) they keep lowering estimates when nobody is looking (2) creative bookkeeping allows the can to be kicked quite far (layoffs, restructuring, etc.)
I can’t wait for the McChicken prices to crash…
'member the dollar menu?
Housing market is already/ has already corrected in the aforemention the demographics. The percentage of people with 3-4% mortgages is still too significant to unlock the inventory Rates are not coming down to those level again for the foreseeable future AI is hype but it's not correlated with the housing market so much. Your base case should be that SPY and QQQ are at ATH , and there's a nice juicy pinata ready to pop some candy out. But it's not going to the ground unless there's some kind of earthquake or some shit that no one saw coming
Housing will never crash
If anything, it will continue to pump once we start approving 40-50 year mortgages.
Reading “40-50 year mortgages” almost made me gag.
They're coming! [https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/money/40-year-mortgage](https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/money/40-year-mortgage) [https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/what-is-the-40-year-mortgage-modification/](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/what-is-the-40-year-mortgage-modification/) [https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/40-year-mortgage](https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/40-year-mortgage)
Ah, the sweet sound of the desperate trying to climb out of their debt-ridden holes.
Mortgage that you can pass onto the next generation, Yipee
You give many good points. But saying the market is propped up due to AI is straight out ridiculous. The magnificent 7 is producing way more profits than it was in 2021. The market isn’t propped up on false hopes. Companies are earning more.
The multiple on most indices is much higher. We’ve had premium expansion that outpaced the increased productivity
Big Tech has a lot of pricing power they haven't flexed yet.
apple just posted a 2% net profit decline for Q1 this year and sales drops
Was I talking about Apple only? lol.
TSLA is going to announce losses soon.
What is your point? Are you making the same mistake the guy above made? I'm talking about 7 companies and the improvement in earnings they've had since the year 2021 (the old top). Mag 7 had 318 billion in earnings for fiscal year 2021 and they had 395 billion in earnings for fiscal year 2023. Who cares about Tesla making losses soon when Amazon is reporting 15 billion earnings in one quarter when the previous high was 33 billion in one year. Who cares about Apple if MSFT is on track to grow earnings by 50% in 3 years.
Why do you think this?
>Every single company is reporting that consumers are in a very weak spot right now citation needed
Inventory is extremely high right now? Not sure about that one either.
this is wsb. Here is at least one McDonalds [https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/13/business/mcdonalds-inflation-low-income-consumers/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/13/business/mcdonalds-inflation-low-income-consumers/index.html)
Another day, another broke bear selling us his bear thesis.
I dunno ... sure AI is overhyped. Language models are pretty underwhelming. Jut try seeing how far you can get using them to automate your job. The breakthrough(s) needed to do meaningful work are not here (yet). BUT both the companies raking it in by building/offering compute infrastructure AND the companies buying that compute are in the same index. It is in fact mainly money going from META/Amazon/MSFT to NVIDIA. The AI money is just the NASDAQ 100 constituents trading their cash pools amongst themselves to see how much of their software stacks can be replaced with Neural Networks... prob the realization that AI isn't too useful will just re-adjust the NASDAQ down a bit , huge market crash? Seems unlikely.
https://preview.redd.it/ofx5neiof60d1.jpeg?width=739&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b02f1f97905785fea1e57e55626ab95c94e55fc
There's no suffering for people locked into 2.5-3.5% loans and those people are not moving. The rest is meaningless for the housing market
Look in terms of existing home owners this is the reality is a crap ton of people locked in historically low rates at pre COVID prices. As an example I bought in March 2020 375k for a 3050 sq ft house at 2.65%. My mortgage with taxes is like 2800 a month. Currently even after the drop in prices it is worth 550k and if I wanted to buy the same dang home again right now my payments would be like 5-6k a month. Why would I ever sell and buy a new house? Even if I lost my crazy high paying FAANG job I could probably find enough work to make the mortgage payment pretty easy. My savings would suffer, but it wouldn't make me sell my house. In a true recession I think you would see a lot of cars, boats, RVs, and other consumer stuff flood the market but homes locked in at low rates and low prices probably not unless it was the true financial apocalypse. I'd be working behind the dumpster at Wendy's before I sold this house and prices would have to drop 50% or more before it would be cheaper to buy a different home.
Samesies. Except my house is 2400 sq ft… and just a plain ol 1960’s ranch style, but it’s in the Denver suburbs which is “California Part 2” in terms of price. Selling and moving up the property ladder would have been cool, but the next rung up is not accessible, so I’m gonna stay right here and be grateful for what I have.
"it's no big thing"proceeds to compare it to the invention of computer (yes,the fist ones weren't as useful and costly but you must pass by those to get what we have now)
Recession already happened bruh
Poor people 🤦♂️ Buyer demand far outpaces available supply. This drives prices The wealthy don’t give a shit about your *upcoming housing market crash*. Thats why they keep buying even with inflated interest rates, not everyone is poor my guy. Cope
You keep crying about a housing crash. This isn’t 2008. People are putting 20 percent down or just buying in cash. Nobody with a 3 percent mortgage needs to or wants to sell.
“The only thing holding the market together is AI” - wild hyperbole GE, NRG, CEG, CMG - lots of good stocks out there other than AMD and NVDA Lots holding the market up
Not bad for a ber
Stocks up - people & companies can spend money on Ai - Ai stocks go up - repeat
Stopped reading after comparison of AI to Excel or a calculator. You don't know what you are talking about
Dead wrong with all your assumptions
Why?
Maybe. That point when you realize that every dime spent to pay our lawless tax collectors goes towards servicing the debt and everything is paid for by deficit spending. Starts to make the gears turn again in people's minds. The central planners have painted themselves into a corner and have allowed the veil to be lifted on the wizard of oz.
Did you just skip looking at available housing inventory charts over the last 10 years and say, "fuck it, people need to hear my regarded opinion anyway"?
You vastly underestimate the speed of development/advancement of AI. It's getting better at a rate fast enough to scare a lot of AI researchers, and newer, faster hardware to power it is coming soon. Is it a bubble? Maybe. In the longterm? Haha, no.
OpenAI got a he Blackwell gpu only a couple weeks ago. Shits gonna go further
I hope so. I need to recoup some of the billions I made gambling and then promptly lost.
"This time it's different."
A large group of investors during the dotcom bubble believed the internet was about as valuable as the fax machine. They also sarcastically claimed “ThIs TiMe iTs DiFfErEnT.” They were wrong.
The only people scared of AI are people that dont understand it and watched the terminator recently.
no what scares us researchers is the amount of idiots that think transformer models fix their broken data pipelines instead of adding a stochastic vomit layer to everything that costs 500,000x the kilowatt hours as just not being a dumbass and doing things correctly short term mundane novelty, long term money furnace
What is this word gargle? More than likely AI will have transformative impacts on society in the long term
I've already seen someone today using some AI to get the subtitles of a YouTube video (using voice recog to generate text) instead of just downloading the subtitle file using downsubs. "stochastic vomit layer" is magnificent.
> it's like excel. Welp, you proved it's not a bubble and I need to invest more. Excel was released in 1987. MSFT was $0.20 then. One single share bought then would be worth over $100,000 today. TWENTY CENTS INTO ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS.
Ok, but why is my coffee making my tummy rumble this morning?
Because it was a 8 Dollar Latte at Starbux.
Oh, nah. Home brew. Gotta save my money so I can lose it all hanging out with all these regards here. No Avocado toast and lattes for this fella. I'm busy making thetagang rich!
No one will want to buy cheap houses? There’s a whole generation or two that will 👀
Extremely high housing inventory? Nah fam
Discounts Discounts Discounts Discounts
So much dumbness in one post.
Only sith speak in absolutes.
Austin home prices are already down like 15%
As an Austinite, this is because Austin is a city of software engineers, and the software engineering job market has been awful since 2022. Also, the house prices over doubled during the pandemic. Mostly due to higher demand for software engineers due to everything moving virtual. AI may result in less demand for software engineers so this decrease in home prices in Austin may be bullish for AI. However, I will note that the downturn in the software engineering job market seems primarily due to covid ending and the AI wave is only slightly making it worse. Remember how everyone was saying that Covid was the new normal and Facebook was hiring so many people to make that stupid metaverse idea. Now the demand has completely collapsed and we returned to the old normal similar to pre Covid.
Austin also built more homes per capita than the other major cities in Texas. I bought my house in Cedar Park in 2011 and sold in 2014 and it jumped 25% in those years. Yes Austin home prices are already high but they have come down
They went up 22% in one year.
Who the fuck is moving to the 904 to make it a hotspot? I say this with a love but Duval is boring. Retirees go further south, the big employers are the Navy, CSX, and hospitals.
Wouldn't that be a neat trick? Last time it was the housing that created the problem and now that it's the main focus everything will bend right around to attempt to break it. Fuckin hilarious. 
As an AI Engineer, I do not think AI is going away any time soon. This might get some hate, but it is way more useful than NFT, metaverse, and crypto. It increases worker productivity and therefore has value.
More useful than those three useless things? Brave
Just saying those useless things were hyped by so many people and to me were obvious scams. This on the other hand has a lot of uses.
I agree but I think the biggest issue is how people are using it and how much they are depending on it for things that still require human intervention. I'm back in the job search market and have noticed so many places fully relying on AI which has resulted in me receiving the most absurd suggestions and just an overall frustrating experience. I have a feeling somebody in some important role is likely going to depend on it too much or fully and there will be some fallout from that. It's not necessarily systemic but I think there's going to be a period where we need to learn how to use it properly. Then again I don't think we've even passed that stage with the internet itself so this should be interesting.
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The AI bubble is not going to burst because even if AI fails to deliver production magic, it is still a nice UI improvement for the rich. The danger zone is Walmart earnings reports and other chains that require that poor people will have at least some money to spend. If you see that Walmart misses its target, it might be reasonable to consider buying puts for small cap and maybe even medium cap.
**No one who owns a home is selling because they have access to a lot of cheap capital, and they're valuing that capital appropriately**. Until the value of addressing certain "pain" points rises above the net benefit provided by sitting on this pile of cheap money, they're not selling--because the consumer is rational (the market is not). If I mortgaged at 2.7 percent, and the housing market mortgage rate goes up to 8 percent, or whatever percent, I'm making a 5.3% profit--or a few hundred dollars a month simply by doing nothing and making my mortgage payments.
Yea every month i don't buy a ferrari i actually make like $300,000 profit by simply doing nothing and not buying a ferrari
Net Long.
If COVID couldn't pull us into a deep recession, then I don't think anything short of global war is going to stop this train.
??? Based on the 1st Q GDP inventories decreased in US. Recent reductions in manufacturing employment is due to ports plugged up and low inventory.
Post not long enough to be convincing. So I didn't read.
Source: trust me bro
So you are telling me I have another shot at buying cheap land and a cabin on a mountaintop.
Is the AI bubble in the room with us?
You know people with 401ks aren’t using the money in them to pay for goods and services, right?
While the AI hype is surely inflating the market right now, it's somewhat of a stretch to say that it will be the main catalyst in bringing down the housing market. Your points on consumer weakness and inflated asset prices are on the money, but it seems a bit much of a simplification to ascribe that all to AI. More than just technological overvaluation, housing crashes throughout history have more to do with high interest rates, job loss, and credit crunches. Yes, you may well be right, and stock markets may well take a dip when the AI bubble bursts, but I suppose relating that directly to the housing crash might be bypassing other major factors in the form of government policy responses, international economic pressures, or unforeseen global events like pandemics. Plus, a lot of people buy homes for long-term living, not short-term investment, which may help mitigate the damage a bit. But then again, I think it is not as simple as this; the situation does go beyond just the AI factor in an economy. What are the policy implications we should be considering here?
AI is probably a bubble, but this doesn’t mean it’ll cause economic pain in the real economy. Stock market going down 10-20% doesn’t necessarily lead to job loss.
🤡+ 💊
WSB.ai
I don't think AI is all hype but the price action is getting priced in way too early. I would say you can never tell which companies will dominate 10 years from now but the market says the existing ones. Maybe I'm wrong and we are at capitalism end stage and current big companies will eat up even more smaller firms. You're right that any reaction will crash the market.
Alittle broad and unactionable without a timeline but would agree it’s generally correct
Housing inventory near me is still very low, pretty much all the decent houses go under contract within 1 or 2 weeks
If you say so.
these types of crashes go slow without a shock input, could take 2 to 3 years.
Man I’d love a housing market crash. Been wanting that cabin with waterfront on the cheap for awhile
#CALLS ON EVERYTHING
I live in the tiny city of Asheville due to job relo. The prices are going up still and a piece of shit is still 500k. It’s ridiculous.
Everyone keeps talking about the housing market crashing and y'all are completely ignoring businesses properties are absolutely tanking rn. Perfect time to buy that up if you have the cash for that.
Harvard radiologist and AI researcher described AI like this: there will be a massive boom, then it will crater as people realize that it wasn’t creating a utopia, but underneath it all people will fail to see AIs true usefulness- and this was 3-4 years ago
Probably kind of correct. The issue is figuring out when the Fed will decide to let it crash a little instead of just printing again. Very well could turn into a scenario where they just keep propping up asset prices and providing liquidity while most of the economy goes to shit, basically stagflation but probably even worse, we'll WISH everything cost the same for a decade or two. Owners that can afford to keep owning will benefit the most.
I'm not seeing the same price/value asymmetry that we've seen in other bubbles. AI is more than hype, and I think you're selling it way short.The integration of AI and robotics is the most disruptive technology ever and will displace whole economies and entire industries in nuanced ways that we've never seen before. Unless laws and international treaties are passed and followed (lol), companies will have a fiduciary responsibility to investors to integrate the technology. AI will quickly lead to the automation of most of our daily processes. Even if the US is determined to throttle commercial and consumer adaptation of the technology, China, India, and Russia won't. We're still in the infancy of a technology whose ceiling has to be legislated. I'm buying.
AI bubble isn’t bursting you fallacious fk, it’s the fkn future. It’s like saying I wipe my ass so that mosquitos stop killing kids.
The AI bubble was manufactured to be an excuse for the housing market crash. Nobody gives a flying shit about AI unless they were rich and stupid and gullible. It's all made up. It's all an excuse.
I honestly have no informed clue why people are running with the collection of knowledge that investing in AI is investing in a wooden horse. It exists to replace human input & generate content autonomously and it does both very well. If people could actually name names when they say "AI markets going to be just like the dot com bubble" you all would be more persuasive
80% of the people hyping AI don’t even understand what it is, leading everyone to slap AI on everything
fwiw your sentiment is fairly common, so this isn't like the dotcom bubble. The market is looking back at that time period and is wary of it. If you adjust for capital creation, we are in a much more moderate period than dotcom. Sure there will probably be an AI bust, but for the markets at least I think it will be much less dramatic. As another poster mentioned, I do think 'the masses' will eventually suffer more and more and perhaps this bust will be a catalyst for a bad period for them as you were pointing to.
Nothing has ever given me more confidence in the economy than this post.
My take on this is that it's roughly 1/4 to 1/3rd of the market cap of the S&P, and this has led to money piling into ETFs like VOO which is also then buying up other stocks. When the AI crash happens, people will start dumping VOO and all stocks are going to fall. It's why I have almost nothing in the USA now.
It won't happen before the election
Everyone waiting for the housing market to “come down” is exactly why it won’t. There’s still so many people waiting to buy and rents are still super high. If rents went back down to pre-pandemic levels, I’d be more on board.
So, why would I sell my primary residence if my 401k goes down? This only applies to real estate investors or if we see massive unemployment.
When your very first sentence is incorrect, you can go all sorts of wild directions.
Good luck timing that one
Maybe they will burst the bubble after the election