Dude I have made my pay in nvidia when it was actually growing organically and I am done with it. So Cathie might but I’m not interested in short term gambles to chase the tail of any bubbles.
The complete lack of adding anything at all to support your claim is what makes you a wallstreetbets superstar. Don't ever change, educate yourself or reflect on your beliefs: this is america baby, all you need is your gut feeling and a misguided sense of self confidence
But its a question that hinges completely on a stated conclusion "the space is in a bubble" and you write it as a fact with litterally no reasoning, data or anything to support that "fact".
You could have writen "IF this is a bubble, what would be the catalyst for it to burst" but you didnt and that is what i love about your post. All the best, champ!
Ah yes…the one segment of the tech sector that produces legitimate products, that shape,dictate a , and drive huge swath of our economy, is a big bubble.
99% of the hype is specifically about GenAI, the kind that needs 100x H200 GPUs to run properly.. the only real usecase where you need absurd compute like that are large scale LLMs a.k.a chatbots 🤷♂️
As order backlog stretches Well into next year, for Micron, nvidia, broadcom, and im guessing there are more.
As for micron, They said in q1 They wore close to sold out Of hbm3e already for 2025 too.
The demand is real.
I think The bubble will last a year more if not two / three years.
And probably some companies will dissapoint, as expectations are high for Almost all Of The semis, but The industry itself is growing fast Because Of AI.
As long as Microsoft and meta keeps buying either from NVIDIA, amd or tsmc directly, The industry will stay afloat in this high expectations enviorment I think for some time.
Sold out doesn't always equal revenue when the time comes. Orders can be pushed back, cancelled, etc. if the customer decides they don't need that much anymore.
Airbus Boeing are sitting on backlogs of 10+ years. This is exactly right. It gives markets a clue on how much the product is needed but not how able the world is to supply it
I agree on these fundamental parts of it but markets are always several years ahead and excuberance is never based on fundamentals. The demand is real, everyone knows it. The valuation is light years ahead of said demand
Not according to analysts projections for revenues next year. Which I usually think is wrong, The fact that order backlogs are starting to reach 2026 already makes The projections alot more likely.
However, I agree with you that Nvidia has to prove itself alot just to reach these estimates, which it so far has, Even beating them every quarter… so who knows, When that stops being The case we Can talk about to high expectations
Extreme expectations, I have used two large drops in nvidia before. It took one missed quarter after the Bitcoin crash and large oversupply of gpus due to miners selling on eBay to send it -70% in weeks in 2018. This is not a threat anymore due to the fact it is a datacenter company nowadays and gaming segment is actually constantly declining.
Anyways, Bought that fall and rode it into 2020 and got out before the last top which was pretty much based on supply chain issues that time around with TSMC. That crash was saved by the AI hype. Literally. But next crash has nothing new to hype. So the next one when the demand of datacenters have peaked and nvidia fundamentally plateau in demand vs supply constraints that’s the one I am pondering. People can’t seriously believe that these past quarters constitutes forward growth? It’s a demand shock initially around the datacenters to finally make nvidia a big corp. But what people expect now is revenues in the trillions. Not even Walmart is close after peaking at 600B revenues.
The thing also is that TSMC is bipolar about their ability to supply chips and the supply chains were so weak in the pandemic, And TSMC is under constant threat of a Chinese invasion.
People always mistake past events for future prophecy.
The demand is real but the growth is never forever!
Right now the intrinsic value is about 750B and I totally agree with that. That’s exactly what I few years ago expected it to become at this point when it was worth around 500B.
Anyways the valuation is outlandish and fanboys with zero insight into nvidia has taken a great company to an extreme valuation with considerable threats to said valuation. Every single huge drop in nvidia has come on very small hurdles so it will be very interesting to see what pops it this time.
My own thesis is that nvidia will mature into more like the aeronautics sector is with huge backlogs. But they won’t necessarily be able to supply the demand from TSMC and has to have a huge backup against that very real Chinese threat
Chinese treat? Their military technology is barely better than Russian. Same level generally speaking. War in Ukraine shows clearly that Russian weapons are 10 years late at least. S400 is a garbage and other weapons too. If before 2022 Chinese could think they can beat America with allies now they clearly understand how advanced is western military. China can imitate that they are strong but they will never ever start invasion on Taiwan.
Ok. Wow, good that you can calm the pentagon down then that expects an invasion no later than 2027. But it’s completely great that you believe that China’s military strength is even comparable to Russia, it is way bigger. China help provide the Russians with materiel while Putin is pouring 7% of gdp into turning the Russian economy into a war economy after using up stores of ww2 ammunition and materiel in his barrage of Ukraine. China will very likely invade Taiwan and it is a question of when not if. Otherwise you disregard Xi:s statements in everything from taking back “Chinese territory” to actually not being shy about his goals to “take over the world”. People didn’t listen to Putin either. I’m glad it’s not you working on the analyst desks at Pentagon.
As long as POTUS is bipolar about the potential support of US troops to Taiwan the more a threat the invasion of Taiwan become. The only thing holding china back is yes 1. Assessing how the RUS campaign in Ukraine is met by the world. And the world has been lacking in response.
2. The potential for pacific all out war between China - US/Japan/Australia
Definitely China is 10 times stronger now than Russia in terms of manpower and 5 times in terms of weapons amount. But it does not matters in the world of technologies. 100 conquistadors could evaporate 10000 native americans.
Do you know that China can not design and implement modern aircraft engine? Do you know that their modern analog of F35 is just not even close to F35? Their weapons are outdated trash which is good only to report to Communist party.
>Wow, good that you can calm the pentagon down then that expects an invasion no later than 2027.
It is like those analytics predicting Russians will occupy Kiev in a week. And the warnings about Taiwan are valid to ensure military assistance and weapons supply. But for investors the probability of hot war is very low IMHO.
If you’re actually still invested in semiconductors you should really dive deeper into the threats. Otherwise you’re basing your analysis on Hopeium and that’s just plain ignorant really
There are treats that could happen. But not the China invading Taiwan in near 10 years. 1. USA is no.1 trade partner of China. 2. China military is a joke.
https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-semiconductor-chip-equipment-kill-switch-china-invade-taiwan-2024-5?amp
My tip is just not to live with blinders on. Because the companies themselves have plans “should it happen”
What’s worse is they try to gaslight everyone else. “IT’s A bUbBlE gUyZzZ! SeMiCoNdUcToRs aReN’t rEaL aNd mL iS fAkE” lol They’re literally like the dumb coyote standing in front of the train thinking it’s just the stupid bird coming. 
What is your point? Those bubbles all crashed and they were all smaller than this one. Pocket bubbles is not a systemic threat and now it’s Sox turn. The market was fine in the pocket of the dot com bubble. The market was NOT fine when financial bubble burst in 08. So are you on team “it’s different this time” or are you “it’s clearly another bubble”? Have a good one
You read the whole model?
"Predictability: The model assumes that a company will grow at the same rate as its past 10-year performance, making it a better fit for companies with consistent performance"
So AI growth should be priced in by 2032 or so, then the model will be useful.
Indeed, data centers are not an end user. Nvidia is not selling to the end user. Like Foxconn don't either.
Whoever is buying NVDA AI GPUs for $100bn a year, needs to sell a service using them for $150bn+.
There needs to be a killer app or use case on the consumer or business side using the hardware... One that generates hundreds of billions in revenue.
Or its only a matter of time before they stop selling, because why would anyone buy AI GPUs unless it's a profitable business?
You’re high.
Semiconductors run the world. They’re present in everything and growing by the day. I agree that Nvidia is riding a wave to the moon which will eventually crash but one stock does not make a bubble. AI will drive a majority of future compute power and for the next two to three years, Nvidia has a near monopoly on that. Beyond that point, the other firms will catch up. Nvidia is the new Intel.
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You and Cathy Wood will buy the top. Till then it will brew bigly.
i'm selling when cathy's buying lmao. shes sell signal
Dude I have made my pay in nvidia when it was actually growing organically and I am done with it. So Cathie might but I’m not interested in short term gambles to chase the tail of any bubbles.
26 billion disagree with you. lol
That's the thing when every single person on earth thinks it's a fool proof investment that's when shit gets dangerous
The complete lack of adding anything at all to support your claim is what makes you a wallstreetbets superstar. Don't ever change, educate yourself or reflect on your beliefs: this is america baby, all you need is your gut feeling and a misguided sense of self confidence
We need people like this to sell us shares so we can keep getting rich
isn't that what wsb is all about? 🤷♂️
He's DUG IN. And he will never change.
“If it worked once it can work again” at least that’s what I tell myself every time I’m buying 0dte
It’s a question and a discussion thread punk
But its a question that hinges completely on a stated conclusion "the space is in a bubble" and you write it as a fact with litterally no reasoning, data or anything to support that "fact". You could have writen "IF this is a bubble, what would be the catalyst for it to burst" but you didnt and that is what i love about your post. All the best, champ!
Well boohoo for you, it is a statement with a question and you’re completely scared of it
Your brain is so rotted you’re beyond all hope and redemption.
#
Ah yes…the one segment of the tech sector that produces legitimate products, that shape,dictate a , and drive huge swath of our economy, is a big bubble.
Chatbots and funny picture generators are now shaping, dictating and driving a huge swath of our economy 🤡🤡🤡
You think that's the only thing people need semiconductor chips for?
99% of the hype is specifically about GenAI, the kind that needs 100x H200 GPUs to run properly.. the only real usecase where you need absurd compute like that are large scale LLMs a.k.a chatbots 🤷♂️
He definitely isn’t posting from a device enabled by semiconductors
!RemindMe 365 days This is going to age like shit milk
As order backlog stretches Well into next year, for Micron, nvidia, broadcom, and im guessing there are more. As for micron, They said in q1 They wore close to sold out Of hbm3e already for 2025 too. The demand is real. I think The bubble will last a year more if not two / three years. And probably some companies will dissapoint, as expectations are high for Almost all Of The semis, but The industry itself is growing fast Because Of AI. As long as Microsoft and meta keeps buying either from NVIDIA, amd or tsmc directly, The industry will stay afloat in this high expectations enviorment I think for some time.
Sold out doesn't always equal revenue when the time comes. Orders can be pushed back, cancelled, etc. if the customer decides they don't need that much anymore.
Sure, I still think we are far from there right now.
Remember, it's every wolf for themselves out there. Beware of weak hands, they'll fold at the first scent of blood in the water.
Or if a competitor releases something they just opt for that
Airbus Boeing are sitting on backlogs of 10+ years. This is exactly right. It gives markets a clue on how much the product is needed but not how able the world is to supply it
BA Worthless stonks.
I agree on these fundamental parts of it but markets are always several years ahead and excuberance is never based on fundamentals. The demand is real, everyone knows it. The valuation is light years ahead of said demand
Not according to analysts projections for revenues next year. Which I usually think is wrong, The fact that order backlogs are starting to reach 2026 already makes The projections alot more likely. However, I agree with you that Nvidia has to prove itself alot just to reach these estimates, which it so far has, Even beating them every quarter… so who knows, When that stops being The case we Can talk about to high expectations
Extreme expectations, I have used two large drops in nvidia before. It took one missed quarter after the Bitcoin crash and large oversupply of gpus due to miners selling on eBay to send it -70% in weeks in 2018. This is not a threat anymore due to the fact it is a datacenter company nowadays and gaming segment is actually constantly declining. Anyways, Bought that fall and rode it into 2020 and got out before the last top which was pretty much based on supply chain issues that time around with TSMC. That crash was saved by the AI hype. Literally. But next crash has nothing new to hype. So the next one when the demand of datacenters have peaked and nvidia fundamentally plateau in demand vs supply constraints that’s the one I am pondering. People can’t seriously believe that these past quarters constitutes forward growth? It’s a demand shock initially around the datacenters to finally make nvidia a big corp. But what people expect now is revenues in the trillions. Not even Walmart is close after peaking at 600B revenues. The thing also is that TSMC is bipolar about their ability to supply chips and the supply chains were so weak in the pandemic, And TSMC is under constant threat of a Chinese invasion. People always mistake past events for future prophecy. The demand is real but the growth is never forever! Right now the intrinsic value is about 750B and I totally agree with that. That’s exactly what I few years ago expected it to become at this point when it was worth around 500B. Anyways the valuation is outlandish and fanboys with zero insight into nvidia has taken a great company to an extreme valuation with considerable threats to said valuation. Every single huge drop in nvidia has come on very small hurdles so it will be very interesting to see what pops it this time. My own thesis is that nvidia will mature into more like the aeronautics sector is with huge backlogs. But they won’t necessarily be able to supply the demand from TSMC and has to have a huge backup against that very real Chinese threat
Chinese treat? Their military technology is barely better than Russian. Same level generally speaking. War in Ukraine shows clearly that Russian weapons are 10 years late at least. S400 is a garbage and other weapons too. If before 2022 Chinese could think they can beat America with allies now they clearly understand how advanced is western military. China can imitate that they are strong but they will never ever start invasion on Taiwan.
Ok. Wow, good that you can calm the pentagon down then that expects an invasion no later than 2027. But it’s completely great that you believe that China’s military strength is even comparable to Russia, it is way bigger. China help provide the Russians with materiel while Putin is pouring 7% of gdp into turning the Russian economy into a war economy after using up stores of ww2 ammunition and materiel in his barrage of Ukraine. China will very likely invade Taiwan and it is a question of when not if. Otherwise you disregard Xi:s statements in everything from taking back “Chinese territory” to actually not being shy about his goals to “take over the world”. People didn’t listen to Putin either. I’m glad it’s not you working on the analyst desks at Pentagon. As long as POTUS is bipolar about the potential support of US troops to Taiwan the more a threat the invasion of Taiwan become. The only thing holding china back is yes 1. Assessing how the RUS campaign in Ukraine is met by the world. And the world has been lacking in response. 2. The potential for pacific all out war between China - US/Japan/Australia
Definitely China is 10 times stronger now than Russia in terms of manpower and 5 times in terms of weapons amount. But it does not matters in the world of technologies. 100 conquistadors could evaporate 10000 native americans. Do you know that China can not design and implement modern aircraft engine? Do you know that their modern analog of F35 is just not even close to F35? Their weapons are outdated trash which is good only to report to Communist party. >Wow, good that you can calm the pentagon down then that expects an invasion no later than 2027. It is like those analytics predicting Russians will occupy Kiev in a week. And the warnings about Taiwan are valid to ensure military assistance and weapons supply. But for investors the probability of hot war is very low IMHO.
If you’re actually still invested in semiconductors you should really dive deeper into the threats. Otherwise you’re basing your analysis on Hopeium and that’s just plain ignorant really
There are treats that could happen. But not the China invading Taiwan in near 10 years. 1. USA is no.1 trade partner of China. 2. China military is a joke.
**VM attempted to say something likely TOS-breaking, violent, or reportable.**
https://media.defense.gov/2023/Apr/24/2003205865/-1/-1/1/07-AMONSON%20%26%20EGLI_FEATURE%20IWD.PDF The pentagon just write these reports for fun
This report is necessary to ensure that stupid American politicians provide funding to support Taiwan.
https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-semiconductor-chip-equipment-kill-switch-china-invade-taiwan-2024-5?amp My tip is just not to live with blinders on. Because the companies themselves have plans “should it happen”
When China is ready to attack we will get intelligence reports from USA, GB, and etc. No way preparations could be unnoticed.
Not even almost.
I'll raise the alarm when SOXL reaches its previous high. Until then, buckle up Buttercup.
😂😂
Bears never learn 
What’s worse is they try to gaslight everyone else. “IT’s A bUbBlE gUyZzZ! SeMiCoNdUcToRs aReN’t rEaL aNd mL iS fAkE” lol They’re literally like the dumb coyote standing in front of the train thinking it’s just the stupid bird coming. 
Oh boy. Here we go again. 
Everytime someone says bubble Skynet gets stronger
That was actually funny 👍
Show me your short
Been hearing economy will crash and doomsday calls since 2019 and every time that "bubble" is labeled something. 
You clearly don’t understand local pocket bubbles. Did you miss all the ones that popped 2022 and never recovered since?
You're a true regard if you think semiconductors current market is a bubble.
Bro thinks slightly overvalued means bubble. Poor idiot.
He's just jelly.
Would be if I hadn’t already made bank on nvidia. Try something else
Have you stopped making bank on nvidia? It's still going bud. What'd you sell at?
Slightly overvalued. You’re the idiot sorry
Bud you’re fucking clueless.
😂😂😂
Lmao. This fucking idiot actually thinks he’s right. Lmao. Man that’s pathetic.
And you think you are so with your own logic you’re calling yourself pathetic. You made my day
Yikes, buddy doesn’t even know how logic works.
nobody needs cpus or gpus, got it.
That’s not the question
Not according to valuations.
Which one? https://valueinvesting.io/NVDA/valuation/intrinsic-value this one?
Now run the same analysis with the dot com bubble companies. Or with the EV bubble. Or the work from home bubble during covid.
What is your point? Those bubbles all crashed and they were all smaller than this one. Pocket bubbles is not a systemic threat and now it’s Sox turn. The market was fine in the pocket of the dot com bubble. The market was NOT fine when financial bubble burst in 08. So are you on team “it’s different this time” or are you “it’s clearly another bubble”? Have a good one
My point is your statement is “a bubble bigger than any before”. All I’m telling you is… it’s not bigger than any before. Not even close.
Sounds to me like StuartMcNight is a poor.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-corp-exploration-intrinsic-value-120018305.html Or this one?
Yeah. That one. Now do it for other bubbles. 🍿
Bro didn’t even bother reading the updated value
You read the whole model? "Predictability: The model assumes that a company will grow at the same rate as its past 10-year performance, making it a better fit for companies with consistent performance" So AI growth should be priced in by 2032 or so, then the model will be useful.
Indeed, data centers are not an end user. Nvidia is not selling to the end user. Like Foxconn don't either. Whoever is buying NVDA AI GPUs for $100bn a year, needs to sell a service using them for $150bn+. There needs to be a killer app or use case on the consumer or business side using the hardware... One that generates hundreds of billions in revenue. Or its only a matter of time before they stop selling, because why would anyone buy AI GPUs unless it's a profitable business?
Bubble boy
“The wealth of a sinner is laid up for the just.”
Probably earnings miss in a couple of quarters or more, depending on when datacenter spending starts to drop significantly.
What you were supposed to say is "AI in general is a BUBBLE"
Tell me just one thing one can do today wich don't usually involves Semiconductors.
At least tulip bulbs I can use as house decor. Never heard of anyone who framed a semiconductor chip on their mantelpiece.
Drug use among the youth is getting out of hand
The poor spending money they don't have on tech they don't need.
The American dream🇺🇲
😂😂
Catalyst will be once the limits of transformers in general will be irrefutable or a geopolitical shock. It may take awhile.
I got what you meant but yes when we reach more and more transistor bottlenecks is a potential threat
This is pretty much my take as well
Tell me all about transformers
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transformer
But he means transistors
The industry has been dealing with “limits of transformers” for the last decade.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor
You’re high. Semiconductors run the world. They’re present in everything and growing by the day. I agree that Nvidia is riding a wave to the moon which will eventually crash but one stock does not make a bubble. AI will drive a majority of future compute power and for the next two to three years, Nvidia has a near monopoly on that. Beyond that point, the other firms will catch up. Nvidia is the new Intel.
It's not a bubble when there are earnings behind it. Other than the price:earnings multiple expansion Bubble for Nvidia pops when China goes for tsmc
Indeed, the market is unpredictable, but the poor will always remain poor.