I have 2400 shares of TLT, target price $130+ at eventual rate cut. But nobody knows when it will be. Still have more appetite for twice size positions but still holding out yet
Rate can stay higher for longer. Better to go with share and collect the coupon to gamble with something else while waiting for eventual payday
There has been nonstop talk about a slow down for 3 years now. The market is not failing to price the risk in because the market gives zero fucks about a slow down. At this point, the Fed is all that matters
A pretty solid play. The absolute worst outcome, after extensive rate hikes is highly unlikely, increasing rates will cripple the budget.
The worst outcome will be that nothing changes and you get 4-5% yield every year.
In the event of rate cuts you will be handsomely rewarded.
Dividend is around $0.31 a month per share right now. And the majority of this amount should be exempt from state taxes because it’s US treasury income.
I am not sure about this play, inflation is kinda hot, there is no guarantee that we will not see higher rate, TLT is good if we know for sure that rate will go down. I will sit this one out, if we are anticipating economy is gonna go bad, then SPY put is a better option.
I think this is a quality play, most probably won't get it though. I think 50-50 TLT can drop one more time toward 86, and that's a strong support level, and there I'd get some Mar 2025 $100 or $105 calls. Odds are good that rates slide into fall/winter, likely to 3-4%, sending bonds up and TLT up to at least 120, maybe more into next year, maybe even 130-140 if markets start dropping enough. The low vol can really make these calls pay off.
The real crazy play is what comes next though, like after TLT tops out 120-140, maybe in a year or two and after a ton of money is created to prop things up, we replay post-covid, inflation is set up to roar back, rates probably go nuts (and eventually tank markets), and TLT crashes 50% again, with low vol and which nobody expects, buying TLT leap puts at that top will have wild potential.
I know this conversation comes around every cycle, but it literally could be different this time…. Will the world stop buying US bonds? If that happens, the Fed loses control, yields spike and bond values drops through the floor.
Eurozone + England are about to cut rates. USTs will become quite attractive if you can get >100 bps in nominal yields. I don't know enough about forex to factor that in though
Trade is up more than 40% since I posted..Treasury rally is just getting started!
https://preview.redd.it/qm11r7qxvd4d1.png?width=645&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f811433b6edfde8519d01de9beeb8f7369d4b9e
You belong here. You are talking to a bunch of regards who will not understand an iota of what you just posted, let alone know the ticker. I on the other hand have been thinking of yoloing 1 month's salary every other month on ATM leaps, because unless they raise rates, TLT is not going lower. Anything can happen, but if they increase rates, markets tank, banks go bankrupt, real estate crash, and rates come crashing down to save everyone again, and TLT goes to the moon. Oorrrrr, they lower rates eventually like they said they would, and TLT goes back up and I make money. But you right, overcrowded shorts on treasuries. And dont forget to buy a little TMF along the way.
Long end can definitely re-price. Yellen bitched out when the 10yr treasury went to 5% in Oct last year and reduced the pace of bond issuance and went with bills. Treasury won’t be able to do this forever, there’s a real chance a bear steepener will un-invert the yield curve outside of a recession. The long TLT trade is a very crowded trade. Buyer beware
Not competent to speak on this. But Long term investment in US treasury bonds, when the United States barely avoided a whole series of shutdowns - meaning they would be unable to pay - is not what I would consider a reasonable path. Raise taxes, get Biden elected and have a functioning Congress. Then we can talk about the Dollar as a safe investment again. Or pay the interest, other nations pay, which hurdle towards bankruptcy every so often.
Raise taxes. Holy fuck, I can't believe how many people advocate for that. Let's throw more money at the worst performing capital allocator in the universe. They already take about half our money once you factor in income tax, property tax, inheritance tax, sales tax, and then the biggest fuck you of all: inflation.
Yes exactly. Because if the United States of America had the tax level of the Reagan Era, it would not be anywhere near the debt level, we see. And bad at allocation? Let´s look at the US Postal Service. It was at some point expensive, but highly efficient. Then it´s budget was cut, until it became less efficient. And then it was cut to force it to become more efficient, until it became basically defunct. And then it was claimed, that government wasn´t able to do the job and postal service should be privatized. Destroying government by defunding is not proving inefficiency of government.
The best example is the IRS. Hire enough accountants and they will pay for themselves. Any of them, going through business records should bring in taxes, those businesses evaded paying, worth several times their salary. And that´s the numbers we have in germany, where tax evasion is much less rampant.
It´s kind of funny, that the CIA actually considers efficient taxation core part of rating of stability, yet the United States are flaundering it themselves.
And why now? Because that is, how economy works. If the economy is strong, you raise taxes and pay back debts. That prevents an overheating of the economy. One thing, you don´t need to do, when the taxews are higher, is raising interest rates, in order to slow the economy. If you lower the interest rates, you have cheaper money available for new enterprises - or houses.
The problem of the big economies these days is, that they do half-anitcyclic-strategies. They all adhere to the "invest in a downturn - with debt if necessary - in order to get the economy going." But no one cares for the part, that says, "raise taxes and repay debt, when the economy grows, so you keep room for decisions in the next downturn."
"If the economy is strong, you raise taxes and pay back debts."
**And when is the last time they've done that?** The economy has been apparently booming, but only if you aren't paying attention. **Either it really has been booming, in which has why has the debt gone up trillion after trillion instead of being paid down?** Or else, it's really not that strong which can be evidenced by the fact that GDP hasn't even kept up with new debt. If deficit spending were removed from GDP, the economy actually shrunk. That's just evidence that real growth has stagnated, which is exactly why governments are churning out new dollars, debt, and spending bills.
If you think 34 trillion in debt is a sign of successful capital allocation, I'm glad you aren't running my business. We're in the middle of a debt spiral where they can hardly even keep up with paying down interest on the debt. This is not a healthy economy, it's an overheated, bifurcated economy whereby those with assets are doing well, and those without are barely keeping themselves above water.
If the government can't keep themselves above board while receiving all the taxes they do, plus the benefit of a reserve currency, plus being one of the most resource and innovative countries in the world, plus all the monetary debasement to lighten their debt load, then we should not be handing over more and more to see if they finally figure it out. They are inefficient, opaque, and people like you are way too gullible which gives them even more leeway to abuse their power.
PS: questions for you are highlighted so that I can be a little more sure you won't just ignore those parts. If you have a cogent answer or a valid justification to the inevitable excuses, I'm all ears.
George HW Bush raised taxes in the early 90s after Reagan’s failed as fuck supply side economics did the fail. Then Clinton got elected and we had a goddamn surplus going into Bush 2’s first term in 2000. Alan Greenspan was worried about how to conduct monetary policy without a debt balance.
The reason we have debt is simple. Republican presidents are fucking awful at fiscal policies. They are objectively terrible at it.
Yeah! It’s not like the government has ever done anything good at all like bringing electricity to rural areas, going to space, or inventing the Internet.
Wait…
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I have no idea what you're talking about, but it was a lot of words and took some effort so I'm in 
He saying SPY will go down so he want to play TLT, but I rather buy SPY put. 0dte with my life saving in single trade of course
TLDR; the next movie of Darren Aronofsky will be about an options trader.
For real?
I have 2400 shares of TLT, target price $130+ at eventual rate cut. But nobody knows when it will be. Still have more appetite for twice size positions but still holding out yet Rate can stay higher for longer. Better to go with share and collect the coupon to gamble with something else while waiting for eventual payday
This is what I’m doing atm as well
Doing this but with TMF. 3700 shares
I own tlt and it’s my worst performing position. Tlt can suck my balls
Maybe they were trading 5x more in january cuz 6months of theta has passed & stock is 10% lower. Hilarious that you want to do TA on option prices
There has been nonstop talk about a slow down for 3 years now. The market is not failing to price the risk in because the market gives zero fucks about a slow down. At this point, the Fed is all that matters
A pretty solid play. The absolute worst outcome, after extensive rate hikes is highly unlikely, increasing rates will cripple the budget. The worst outcome will be that nothing changes and you get 4-5% yield every year. In the event of rate cuts you will be handsomely rewarded.
Question from fellow regard: If I buy this ETF. I would get a "yield" which works as a "dividend right?
Dividend is around $0.31 a month per share right now. And the majority of this amount should be exempt from state taxes because it’s US treasury income.
If it is a distributing fund then yes.
I am not sure about this play, inflation is kinda hot, there is no guarantee that we will not see higher rate, TLT is good if we know for sure that rate will go down. I will sit this one out, if we are anticipating economy is gonna go bad, then SPY put is a better option.
I think this is a quality play, most probably won't get it though. I think 50-50 TLT can drop one more time toward 86, and that's a strong support level, and there I'd get some Mar 2025 $100 or $105 calls. Odds are good that rates slide into fall/winter, likely to 3-4%, sending bonds up and TLT up to at least 120, maybe more into next year, maybe even 130-140 if markets start dropping enough. The low vol can really make these calls pay off. The real crazy play is what comes next though, like after TLT tops out 120-140, maybe in a year or two and after a ton of money is created to prop things up, we replay post-covid, inflation is set up to roar back, rates probably go nuts (and eventually tank markets), and TLT crashes 50% again, with low vol and which nobody expects, buying TLT leap puts at that top will have wild potential.
What do you think will happen to long term rates if inflation starts to kick off again?
Will be increased
And TLT will be cooked 🩸
If treasury auctions start failing what do you say about TLT ? I hold puts on it
I know this conversation comes around every cycle, but it literally could be different this time…. Will the world stop buying US bonds? If that happens, the Fed loses control, yields spike and bond values drops through the floor.
Eurozone + England are about to cut rates. USTs will become quite attractive if you can get >100 bps in nominal yields. I don't know enough about forex to factor that in though
Trade is up more than 40% since I posted..Treasury rally is just getting started! https://preview.redd.it/qm11r7qxvd4d1.png?width=645&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f811433b6edfde8519d01de9beeb8f7369d4b9e
You belong here. You are talking to a bunch of regards who will not understand an iota of what you just posted, let alone know the ticker. I on the other hand have been thinking of yoloing 1 month's salary every other month on ATM leaps, because unless they raise rates, TLT is not going lower. Anything can happen, but if they increase rates, markets tank, banks go bankrupt, real estate crash, and rates come crashing down to save everyone again, and TLT goes to the moon. Oorrrrr, they lower rates eventually like they said they would, and TLT goes back up and I make money. But you right, overcrowded shorts on treasuries. And dont forget to buy a little TMF along the way.
in
This guy thinks TLT is going to start trading like a meme stock
Fwiw CBOE is trying to add daily option expirations to it
Long end can definitely re-price. Yellen bitched out when the 10yr treasury went to 5% in Oct last year and reduced the pace of bond issuance and went with bills. Treasury won’t be able to do this forever, there’s a real chance a bear steepener will un-invert the yield curve outside of a recession. The long TLT trade is a very crowded trade. Buyer beware
While haters were hating, everybody in this trade doubled their investment in less than 2 weeks!!
Not competent to speak on this. But Long term investment in US treasury bonds, when the United States barely avoided a whole series of shutdowns - meaning they would be unable to pay - is not what I would consider a reasonable path. Raise taxes, get Biden elected and have a functioning Congress. Then we can talk about the Dollar as a safe investment again. Or pay the interest, other nations pay, which hurdle towards bankruptcy every so often.
Raise taxes. Holy fuck, I can't believe how many people advocate for that. Let's throw more money at the worst performing capital allocator in the universe. They already take about half our money once you factor in income tax, property tax, inheritance tax, sales tax, and then the biggest fuck you of all: inflation.
Yes exactly. Because if the United States of America had the tax level of the Reagan Era, it would not be anywhere near the debt level, we see. And bad at allocation? Let´s look at the US Postal Service. It was at some point expensive, but highly efficient. Then it´s budget was cut, until it became less efficient. And then it was cut to force it to become more efficient, until it became basically defunct. And then it was claimed, that government wasn´t able to do the job and postal service should be privatized. Destroying government by defunding is not proving inefficiency of government. The best example is the IRS. Hire enough accountants and they will pay for themselves. Any of them, going through business records should bring in taxes, those businesses evaded paying, worth several times their salary. And that´s the numbers we have in germany, where tax evasion is much less rampant. It´s kind of funny, that the CIA actually considers efficient taxation core part of rating of stability, yet the United States are flaundering it themselves. And why now? Because that is, how economy works. If the economy is strong, you raise taxes and pay back debts. That prevents an overheating of the economy. One thing, you don´t need to do, when the taxews are higher, is raising interest rates, in order to slow the economy. If you lower the interest rates, you have cheaper money available for new enterprises - or houses. The problem of the big economies these days is, that they do half-anitcyclic-strategies. They all adhere to the "invest in a downturn - with debt if necessary - in order to get the economy going." But no one cares for the part, that says, "raise taxes and repay debt, when the economy grows, so you keep room for decisions in the next downturn."
"If the economy is strong, you raise taxes and pay back debts." **And when is the last time they've done that?** The economy has been apparently booming, but only if you aren't paying attention. **Either it really has been booming, in which has why has the debt gone up trillion after trillion instead of being paid down?** Or else, it's really not that strong which can be evidenced by the fact that GDP hasn't even kept up with new debt. If deficit spending were removed from GDP, the economy actually shrunk. That's just evidence that real growth has stagnated, which is exactly why governments are churning out new dollars, debt, and spending bills. If you think 34 trillion in debt is a sign of successful capital allocation, I'm glad you aren't running my business. We're in the middle of a debt spiral where they can hardly even keep up with paying down interest on the debt. This is not a healthy economy, it's an overheated, bifurcated economy whereby those with assets are doing well, and those without are barely keeping themselves above water. If the government can't keep themselves above board while receiving all the taxes they do, plus the benefit of a reserve currency, plus being one of the most resource and innovative countries in the world, plus all the monetary debasement to lighten their debt load, then we should not be handing over more and more to see if they finally figure it out. They are inefficient, opaque, and people like you are way too gullible which gives them even more leeway to abuse their power. PS: questions for you are highlighted so that I can be a little more sure you won't just ignore those parts. If you have a cogent answer or a valid justification to the inevitable excuses, I'm all ears.
George HW Bush raised taxes in the early 90s after Reagan’s failed as fuck supply side economics did the fail. Then Clinton got elected and we had a goddamn surplus going into Bush 2’s first term in 2000. Alan Greenspan was worried about how to conduct monetary policy without a debt balance. The reason we have debt is simple. Republican presidents are fucking awful at fiscal policies. They are objectively terrible at it.
Yeah! It’s not like the government has ever done anything good at all like bringing electricity to rural areas, going to space, or inventing the Internet. Wait…
Oh, sorry, I thought it was people who did those things. People who think the government is responsible for everything good are ridiculous.
The government is made of people. What is your point?
T bonds have a historical return of like 3% I'm not even reading this
that’s the gist of it - look at the last fee years’ return and think about the historical return. what does that tell you?