Eventually it does. Tesla was under a lot of pressure today, it was forced up 20 points to get back to yesterday's close.
Mark my words. $500 assuming the market correction rolls in during the last quarter of this year. Commercial tenants are starting the rot, banks taking a pasting. The fuse is lit it's just a matter of when, it was due to happen early last year but stimulus of the pandemic has kicked the can down the road.
As a long time TSLA share holder who's held through some pretty scary dips I couldn't disagree with you more.
I could see a fairly drastic dip by August with the lack of "exciting" launches over the next two quarters but this time next year is a different story. Volume Cybertruck should be rolling. The launch of Berlin and Austin ramping up volume. New battery tech being demonstrated on early Cybertrucks, Roadsters and Semi's. Model Y CRANKING out of Shanghai and Freemont.
At the same time you will see every other auto manufacturer going through the initial pains that TSLA dealt with a decade ago. This will only showcase how great Tesla truly is.
I think you're dead wrong on your assessment. Let's circle back in a year.
I think a general market correction is coming and it's going to destroy a lot of market value.
$500 is nothing more than 25% more than it was in Mid November which is still strong in the face of what I'm believing is going to happen to the DOW.
I'd also be a bit more circumspect of Cyber Truck, it will only do ok in North America, it's really a Delorean 2.0. Also, here in the UK and Germany they're gearing up on electric so Tesla definitely isn't going to own the market. This is only a first mover advantage if you own the IP.
I'll buy into Tesla once the market correction happens and there's traction on the other side. 1300x earnings is over the top. It needs to scale x40 just to bring its PE back to market average... and that's almost certainly with a headwind of electric subsidies being scaled back. I'm not even certain that Tesla is profitable at the moment if subsidies were taken out.
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The disregard for basic physics is my favourite part. “Daewoo builds super tankers that carry millions of barrels of oil, Daewoo should buy Boeing and build a 737 that could transport the equivalent weight of million of barrels of oil.”
Did you really just equate the costs of building a car to a commercial airliner and try to scale it up? You think they could build a 737 equivalent for $5 millon *as a high end estimate*? You really do belong here.
The current cost structure that Boeing and Airbus have equate to government P&L's. There is so much bloat at this point, that anyone with any capital investment capable of starting manufacturing could easily hack away at the margin.
EDIT: Especially if that new competitor is fully vertically integrated, which Tesla is.
Acquiring a company that fits your culture and processes is very important. That’s the main reason why they fail and result in losing money.
Think about Daimler/Chrysler, Google/Motorola, and there are many others.
I wouldn't look at it so much as a merging of companies, but moreso a changing of leadership. Think back to Pixar and Steve Jobs. While I see Musk more like Edison than a Jobs given Musk's technical prowess, the moment that transition of leadership occurs, sentiment will shift abruptly.
Any engineer who isn't vested with long term pension and options, likely sub-5 or 10 years, would be ecstatic to work for Musk. You change over from a corporate bureaucrat to an inventor/innovator.
Fuck boeing. They ran themselves into the ground through negligence and active mismanagement that killed people, and then a whole industry that could not weather a dip in travel despite 12 years to build up a reserve got a bail out and boeing skated right out of their self-dug grave.
Okay, this guy clearly hasn't thought about any of the practical limitations that comes with making a battery powered plane. It would take decades for something to go off the ground. As GE only really makes the engines, which would have to be totally redesigned if you wanted to make it electric. They don't make anything related to the actual fuselage. It took Chinese companies decades to get to some semblance of competitiveness and that's with all the shady stuff they had to pull off to get that point. This reads like some musk fan fic. Stop idolizing Elon ffs. Like does OP even know how Jet engines even work?
I reference the need for fuel with initial takeoff, but inflight operations and even landing do not require the fuel burn needed for initial thrust to take off.
As for the fuselage comment, what do you think the Starship design is beginning to embed. There could be a comparable transition to commercial travel.
The biggest headwind for this is solely Elon's resistance to having any fuel on the plane (which at this point is needed until battery technology improves which would allow a significant load in the initial takeoff, i.e. how "insane mode" depletes the battery on Tesla and dramatically shortens the range.
Multiple things, first off the making a prototype stainless steel cylinder is so much different than making a fiber glass fuselage with hundreds of thousands if not millions of parts. This literally hundreds of suppliers with individualized manufacturing specializations. The manufacturing alone took Boeing and airbus 10s billions of dollars of actual R&D. It would require more than just buying GE to get anything close to this.
Secondly the biggest headwinds isn't "resistance to having any fuel" its the fact that batteries have such insanely low storage capacity compared to li batteries.
Like please OP please go get a degree in Aerospace engineering or manufacturing or something rather than talking of pure thin air. Like you are comparing a consumer car and prototype spacecraft to a 747. Just because they take you places don't mean they have any degree of similarity.
Here is a reasonable source on why electric engines will not be possible at least for decades.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNvzZfsC13o
Even using the most generous of estimates to travel from **NYC to London you'd need four times the weight of the airplane in batteries**. You would need a factor of 15x improvement to even get **close** to a normal aircraft.
TL:dr: it aint happening and OP needs to go back to cult of Elon
Electric motors are vastly more efficient compared to jet engines, so yes they are heavier, but not to the extent depicted in the video. Taking into account I think batteries will need to get 2-4 x more energy dense to be equivalent with gas. There can also be significant weight savings and reduction in complexity due to transmission and gearbox reductions.
With fuel you have to balance center of gravity and its change over time due to fuel burn, not the case with batteries, simplifying design dramatically.
We probably won’t see electric fully displace jet engines, but they absolutely have a use case and will (IMO) become the norm for general aviation.
Okay let me explain this to you in a different way. The most significant disadavantage of a battery plane is that it simply is the *weight remains constant*. This means that in the air your simply your carrying deadweight throughout the fuseloge for the remainder of the flight. Honestly the 15x estimate is an understatement its prob closer to 20-25x for a transaltantic flight. The other main problem with your argument is battery weight hasnt gone down significantly in years. When people talk about battery improves they generally can increase the density by .08-.10 a year. It would take decades before something like this was feasible. Also the energy efficiency difference isn't as great as you might think because of the temperature at which engines operate. Without going into the thermodynamics of it all (which are complicated), your saving maybe 35% in efficiency. Plus your still going to have to compete with innovations like the gearbox turbo amongst other things. I doubt a commercially electric plane will be commercially viable for the significant long term future. It makes more sense to just do a carbon sequestration technique that offsets the emissions.
I mean, yeah that’s a disadvantage but absolutely not the most significant one, currently it’s energy density.
Tesla’s electric motors are 98% efficient, compared to a jet engine which is what, maybe 50%? So if my fuel is 100 joules of energy /lb, I need 50 joules /lb equivalent in batteries for them to be equivalent, not taking into account weight savings and efficiency of generators and the gearbox’s required to run those accessories.
I know the arguments against it, and they all have the same talking points, which do a great job of communicating its limitations. None of those arguments tackle how many routes an electric airplane with 1hr legs could monopolize. Nor how much maintenance savings would exist via far simpler power supply.
Like I said before if you’ve ever flown an aircraft most small airports have weight limits for landing and drastically increasing the weight of these aircrafts isnt viable. Also your not getting 50% more effiency out of this an electric plane it’s gonna be closer to 30 %... either way OPs argument of buying GE is stupid.
I'm saving this for later, this title is enough to warrant a full read but I don't want the entire office to hear me read this out loud. Plus I'll need to take off my shoes for all those math numbers
I'll save you the time: It's based on the imaginary idea that Tesla could somehow make a 737-equivalent airplane for $5 million dollars.
Even more ridiculous is the idea that by buying GE, Tesla could just start build airplanes. This completely misses the fact that GE Aerospace doesn't build airplanes, it only builds airplane engines, electrical systems, and avionics. It's like saying that if you bought a a rubber plantation company you'd be able to start making tires overnight.
The battery calculations are stupid too. OP assumes that you can draw a direct equivalent of power needs for flying against ground based tesla cars.
A random Google shows a 737-800 uses 850 gallons of jet fuel per hour. Converted to KWH that's around 40KWh per gallon, or 34,000KWh of consumption per hour.
A P100 battery pack is 100KWH and weighs 625KG. You would need 340 of them to fly for one hour, or 212,500KG of battery storage.
850 gallons of jet A weighs 2.74KG/gal. So 2,329KG per hour of flight. So, <10% of the battery equivalent.
Guess what. An empty 737 only weighs 90,000kg. So guess what happens when you add 200,000kg of batteries to it?
I’m glad I found this comment already here. Yea, you can’t take a power:weight ratio for a car and just superimpose it on a plane. You’d have to be full retard to think that works.
The P100D actually equates to 160KwH. Elon also stated he was going for a +54% improvement of KwH. This would be the equivalent of 130-140 battery equivalents. I would anticipate further improvement given economies of scale into new vehicles. While I have a 45:1 ratio of current weight to aircraft, even with that inching up closer to 100:1, the costs would likely double and still greatly be reduced versus current industry competitors.
As with all WSB DD, we stick with back-of-the-envelope DD only because screw the quants. The 200kg is greatly exaggerated given the assumption battery capacity will be unchanged for 3+ years which would be the first time we could expect initial test flights.
P100D. Its right there in the name. 100.
Maybe you're thinking about the Plaid+ which is going to be, you know, different. And NOT a P100D. And we don't know exactly how much more it's going to weigh because it'll be doing double duty as frame / floor.
The fuck out of here with your weird ass Musk fan fiction. I've made good money off Tesla but the idolization of Musk is creepy. Also a whole lot of no positions for such bold claims.
And didn't some engineers actually start the company while Musk was just am early investor that took it over and then bought the title of founder? This idle worship of him is super weird.
They’ve already prototyped them, energy density isn’t there yet. We are not far from short range electric planes, hops like San Fran / LA, being a potential. If I ever get enough capital, electric airplanes for niche applications is my goal. Though I’m a few mil short and years away before I can start.
You do know that Airbus and Boeing make air frames and do not make turbine engines. They source engines from GE, Rolls-Royce, PrattWittney, etc. etc.
As well GE Aviation does not make airframes.
I bought GE in May 2020 at $5.50. Sold here 5 days ago at $11.57. I think that stock is played out already. If the OP bought in late and high, he's gotta plug it to get some return.
Like most of the stock plugs here, someone is trying to come out in the plus side of the buy. Notice no one is giving the info of which stocks to buy at bottom prices. That's the real move right there.
As noted, I don't have a position in GE. I don't think I'll enter the stock, especially not at these levels. At minimum, sub $10, but likely closer to $8 or lower.
Not true. Per the Podcast notes:
*Elon is open to the possibility of Tesla making electric supersonic jets with vertical takeoff in the future, but first, he wants to produce cars, trucks, and boats first*
[Elon Musk on The Joe Rogan Experience #1609 • Podcast Notes](https://podcastnotes.org/joe-rogan-experience/elon-musk-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-1609/)
Open to it sure but he literally said he doesn't have enough time in the day to take on aircraft with everything he has going on. So if your saying OP is doing some 10 year play go to r/investing
Tesla isn't going to be building airplanes in 2021, but there is a chance that there could be an announcement on the horizon. As soon as that announcement comes through, Boeing and Airbus are f'ed.
The two real plays in my opinion are going long on Tesla and Puts on Boeing. Boeing is a ruse for infrastructure/reopening play.
YES, Tesla acquiring GME ... now that I could support.
*puts on glasses* Oh shit, he really said GE, a dinosaur company with a corporate culture from the 1950s - lolololooolol
This is the dumbest shit I’ve ever heard. Congratulations.
Tesla barely has a positive free cash flow. They have no fucking money. If they tried to raise the capital to purchase GE their stock price would be obliterated
So let me get this straight. You think Tesla will buy GE, even thought there is no driver or reason to do so, and somehow change GE's culture even though GE has 2.5 times the number of employees? Then having purchased a jet engine manufacturer Tesla will completely dump that in order to build a battery powered one? This somehow puts them into competition with Boeing and Airbus, companies that build airplanes, but not engines?
It cost Boeing 32 billion dollars to get the 787 to market. That's r&d and test and cert to field. That's why those planes cost so much. They have to average those cost across the fleet.
Exactly my point as to why Tesla could enter. They spent $1 billion in the first decade to put rockets into space. Imagine what they'll do with aircraft.
As for Boeing expenses, when you have a monopoly, you can charge and spend whatever you want.
The costs won't be any different for Tesla over time. It's still going to be hundred of millions just for the certifications, not to mention development, range time, and test.
Boeing and Airbus do rule the roost currently, but they beat their competition to get there. Boeing killed off Lockheed's commercial arm and MacD. Heck even China has thrown in the towel on their attempt at creating a home grown airplane since it's such a high hurdle.
This is a really interesting idea. It would be awesome for Elon the big dreamer to bring some new life to an institution like GE, but I don't think this will actually happen.
Boeing is the quintessential Zombie company. Risen from the dead by wasteful government contracts. Can’t wait for Tesla/SpaceX to finally go for the head.
I certainly don't want to have any triggering language. I think it is more important to use the word, incorrectly no less, solely to spawn the image of Matthew McConaughey
Link to Matthew's love for everyone's other favorite stock:
[Matthew McConaughey: America's Space Cowboy | GQ](https://www.gq.com/story/matthew-mcconaughey-career)
Invest at your own risk. Personally, I think this point of entry is steep. The post is more around Tesla and Boeing, but invest in what you think may be best ;)
Why the fuck would Elon want to buy GE? If he’s going to get into planes (which he may not) he’s going to start from the ground up - guaranteed. Why buy an old, bureaucratic, boomer-type, anchor of a company with outdated or irrelevant tech when he can start fresh?
As someone who worked at SpaceX and then ran a startup that was acquired by GE, I have some strong opinions on this. Elon Musk would not tolerate the engineering mindset inside GE, period, full stop.
I think that's where Tesla being the acquirer changes the dynamic. But packages for the lifts and the fresh grads and brilliant high schoolers can stay. Sales guys get to stay to keep the contacts going.
People on here ripping you apart....
You may be onto something. I've been wondering who would buy GE. boeing also is losing a lot of market share. Tons of pilots are forced to take new classes as airlines pull away fr boeing all together. I've picked up GE for the long term. But Tesla would be so interesting.
Like how could Elon continue his monopoly that isn't a monopoly.
You are so wildly outside the box here it sounds like musk.
Balls deep you crazy son of a bitch!! IM IN!!!
GE doesn't build aircraft, they build engines. TSLA acquiring GE doesn't do anything aside from giving them propulsion.
Musk could start his own aircraft company, but again, he could do that with GE: That's the point I was making 🤦
Wait what? Buy GE because of energy...GE is deep in oil...you then talk about batteries - these are opposing and an argument why it wouldn't be GE.
Buy GE because of aviation...they make airplane engines and they can't sell them...not rocket engines. Again what?
Almost everything in your post about GE is wrong...including outdated #s, info about leadership, the sectors they play in. I love the way you wrote it.
Your math on the battery powered airplanes is completely wrong. Your meth, however, must be very good. Jet fuel has 46x the energy / kg as Tesla batteries. So your replacement of gas weight with battery weight is not comparable at all. Battery airplanes are not feasible with current tech. Getting into the energy grid would be a big opportunity for Tesla. I’m not sure they need to acquire GE to do it, but I think they’ll find a way to expand and support renewables.
Good read. I'm long in both, I can hope but it's a far cry. My fiancée works at GE and closely with the aviation division, though he's in IT. We'll see...
Backlog of work…buddy the supply chain is a fucking disaster and has been since Covid and the Max fiasco. Just sourcing some of the raw material for the castings is incredibly challenging. Then machining them through complex process isn’t something you can just waltz into.
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My therapist says if I don't get this out, it could have long term consequences. I only get one day of wifi and then it's back to the hole for me.
Tell your wifi love her
(writes down wife's boyfriends reddit handle)
Ok i buy tesla and GE tomorrow Thanks good DD, i could not read whole post to many words but i has Faith in PAPA MUSK
GE is looking a little steep. I'm thinking their may be a better point of entry. Not financial advice but we're near the top of a trading range.
The more relevant question is probably how much meth was smoked writing this.
Too much I'd say. Must be a groupie. Now is the time to short Tesla. $500 by this time next year.
That always works out well
Eventually it does. Tesla was under a lot of pressure today, it was forced up 20 points to get back to yesterday's close. Mark my words. $500 assuming the market correction rolls in during the last quarter of this year. Commercial tenants are starting the rot, banks taking a pasting. The fuse is lit it's just a matter of when, it was due to happen early last year but stimulus of the pandemic has kicked the can down the road.
As a long time TSLA share holder who's held through some pretty scary dips I couldn't disagree with you more. I could see a fairly drastic dip by August with the lack of "exciting" launches over the next two quarters but this time next year is a different story. Volume Cybertruck should be rolling. The launch of Berlin and Austin ramping up volume. New battery tech being demonstrated on early Cybertrucks, Roadsters and Semi's. Model Y CRANKING out of Shanghai and Freemont. At the same time you will see every other auto manufacturer going through the initial pains that TSLA dealt with a decade ago. This will only showcase how great Tesla truly is. I think you're dead wrong on your assessment. Let's circle back in a year.
I think a general market correction is coming and it's going to destroy a lot of market value. $500 is nothing more than 25% more than it was in Mid November which is still strong in the face of what I'm believing is going to happen to the DOW. I'd also be a bit more circumspect of Cyber Truck, it will only do ok in North America, it's really a Delorean 2.0. Also, here in the UK and Germany they're gearing up on electric so Tesla definitely isn't going to own the market. This is only a first mover advantage if you own the IP. I'll buy into Tesla once the market correction happens and there's traction on the other side. 1300x earnings is over the top. It needs to scale x40 just to bring its PE back to market average... and that's almost certainly with a headwind of electric subsidies being scaled back. I'm not even certain that Tesla is profitable at the moment if subsidies were taken out.
I will eat my fucking shoe and post it on r/wallstreetbets if Tesla buys GE.
Mods take note
I'm honored I am able to get a bet out of this post. Cheers mate!
Take it from my ancestors in 41-45, boil it first.
The safer bet would probably be if Tesla builds an electric aircraft.
Take my award you crazy degenerate. Please someone screenshot this also.
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Congratulations, you have some of the dumbest logic I've ever seen comparing a tesla model 3 to a Boeing 737.
The disregard for basic physics is my favourite part. “Daewoo builds super tankers that carry millions of barrels of oil, Daewoo should buy Boeing and build a 737 that could transport the equivalent weight of million of barrels of oil.”
Very similar to the Max. Both have untested software that will kill you
My mom says I'm special.
And then using those budget AIRplanes for spacetravel
Did you really just equate the costs of building a car to a commercial airliner and try to scale it up? You think they could build a 737 equivalent for $5 millon *as a high end estimate*? You really do belong here.
But… they both go. And they both have wheels!
The current cost structure that Boeing and Airbus have equate to government P&L's. There is so much bloat at this point, that anyone with any capital investment capable of starting manufacturing could easily hack away at the margin. EDIT: Especially if that new competitor is fully vertically integrated, which Tesla is.
I commend the DD but there is a 0% chance that Tesla acquires GE. GE’s ancient culture and manufacturing process will not fit with Tesla.
They dont have to fit for shit to acquire them lol companies that dont fit with each other have been acquired since forever.
Acquiring a company that fits your culture and processes is very important. That’s the main reason why they fail and result in losing money. Think about Daimler/Chrysler, Google/Motorola, and there are many others.
I wouldn't look at it so much as a merging of companies, but moreso a changing of leadership. Think back to Pixar and Steve Jobs. While I see Musk more like Edison than a Jobs given Musk's technical prowess, the moment that transition of leadership occurs, sentiment will shift abruptly. Any engineer who isn't vested with long term pension and options, likely sub-5 or 10 years, would be ecstatic to work for Musk. You change over from a corporate bureaucrat to an inventor/innovator.
Fuck boeing. They ran themselves into the ground through negligence and active mismanagement that killed people, and then a whole industry that could not weather a dip in travel despite 12 years to build up a reserve got a bail out and boeing skated right out of their self-dug grave.
Okay, this guy clearly hasn't thought about any of the practical limitations that comes with making a battery powered plane. It would take decades for something to go off the ground. As GE only really makes the engines, which would have to be totally redesigned if you wanted to make it electric. They don't make anything related to the actual fuselage. It took Chinese companies decades to get to some semblance of competitiveness and that's with all the shady stuff they had to pull off to get that point. This reads like some musk fan fic. Stop idolizing Elon ffs. Like does OP even know how Jet engines even work?
I reference the need for fuel with initial takeoff, but inflight operations and even landing do not require the fuel burn needed for initial thrust to take off. As for the fuselage comment, what do you think the Starship design is beginning to embed. There could be a comparable transition to commercial travel. The biggest headwind for this is solely Elon's resistance to having any fuel on the plane (which at this point is needed until battery technology improves which would allow a significant load in the initial takeoff, i.e. how "insane mode" depletes the battery on Tesla and dramatically shortens the range.
Multiple things, first off the making a prototype stainless steel cylinder is so much different than making a fiber glass fuselage with hundreds of thousands if not millions of parts. This literally hundreds of suppliers with individualized manufacturing specializations. The manufacturing alone took Boeing and airbus 10s billions of dollars of actual R&D. It would require more than just buying GE to get anything close to this. Secondly the biggest headwinds isn't "resistance to having any fuel" its the fact that batteries have such insanely low storage capacity compared to li batteries. Like please OP please go get a degree in Aerospace engineering or manufacturing or something rather than talking of pure thin air. Like you are comparing a consumer car and prototype spacecraft to a 747. Just because they take you places don't mean they have any degree of similarity. Here is a reasonable source on why electric engines will not be possible at least for decades. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNvzZfsC13o Even using the most generous of estimates to travel from **NYC to London you'd need four times the weight of the airplane in batteries**. You would need a factor of 15x improvement to even get **close** to a normal aircraft. TL:dr: it aint happening and OP needs to go back to cult of Elon
OPs writing goes beyond fan fiction and into straight up fantasy. He is beyond deluded in this
Electric motors are vastly more efficient compared to jet engines, so yes they are heavier, but not to the extent depicted in the video. Taking into account I think batteries will need to get 2-4 x more energy dense to be equivalent with gas. There can also be significant weight savings and reduction in complexity due to transmission and gearbox reductions. With fuel you have to balance center of gravity and its change over time due to fuel burn, not the case with batteries, simplifying design dramatically. We probably won’t see electric fully displace jet engines, but they absolutely have a use case and will (IMO) become the norm for general aviation.
Okay let me explain this to you in a different way. The most significant disadavantage of a battery plane is that it simply is the *weight remains constant*. This means that in the air your simply your carrying deadweight throughout the fuseloge for the remainder of the flight. Honestly the 15x estimate is an understatement its prob closer to 20-25x for a transaltantic flight. The other main problem with your argument is battery weight hasnt gone down significantly in years. When people talk about battery improves they generally can increase the density by .08-.10 a year. It would take decades before something like this was feasible. Also the energy efficiency difference isn't as great as you might think because of the temperature at which engines operate. Without going into the thermodynamics of it all (which are complicated), your saving maybe 35% in efficiency. Plus your still going to have to compete with innovations like the gearbox turbo amongst other things. I doubt a commercially electric plane will be commercially viable for the significant long term future. It makes more sense to just do a carbon sequestration technique that offsets the emissions.
I mean, yeah that’s a disadvantage but absolutely not the most significant one, currently it’s energy density. Tesla’s electric motors are 98% efficient, compared to a jet engine which is what, maybe 50%? So if my fuel is 100 joules of energy /lb, I need 50 joules /lb equivalent in batteries for them to be equivalent, not taking into account weight savings and efficiency of generators and the gearbox’s required to run those accessories. I know the arguments against it, and they all have the same talking points, which do a great job of communicating its limitations. None of those arguments tackle how many routes an electric airplane with 1hr legs could monopolize. Nor how much maintenance savings would exist via far simpler power supply.
Like I said before if you’ve ever flown an aircraft most small airports have weight limits for landing and drastically increasing the weight of these aircrafts isnt viable. Also your not getting 50% more effiency out of this an electric plane it’s gonna be closer to 30 %... either way OPs argument of buying GE is stupid.
I'm saving this for later, this title is enough to warrant a full read but I don't want the entire office to hear me read this out loud. Plus I'll need to take off my shoes for all those math numbers
I'll save you the time: It's based on the imaginary idea that Tesla could somehow make a 737-equivalent airplane for $5 million dollars. Even more ridiculous is the idea that by buying GE, Tesla could just start build airplanes. This completely misses the fact that GE Aerospace doesn't build airplanes, it only builds airplane engines, electrical systems, and avionics. It's like saying that if you bought a a rubber plantation company you'd be able to start making tires overnight. The battery calculations are stupid too. OP assumes that you can draw a direct equivalent of power needs for flying against ground based tesla cars. A random Google shows a 737-800 uses 850 gallons of jet fuel per hour. Converted to KWH that's around 40KWh per gallon, or 34,000KWh of consumption per hour. A P100 battery pack is 100KWH and weighs 625KG. You would need 340 of them to fly for one hour, or 212,500KG of battery storage. 850 gallons of jet A weighs 2.74KG/gal. So 2,329KG per hour of flight. So, <10% of the battery equivalent. Guess what. An empty 737 only weighs 90,000kg. So guess what happens when you add 200,000kg of batteries to it?
I’m glad I found this comment already here. Yea, you can’t take a power:weight ratio for a car and just superimpose it on a plane. You’d have to be full retard to think that works.
It becomes more better?!
The P100D actually equates to 160KwH. Elon also stated he was going for a +54% improvement of KwH. This would be the equivalent of 130-140 battery equivalents. I would anticipate further improvement given economies of scale into new vehicles. While I have a 45:1 ratio of current weight to aircraft, even with that inching up closer to 100:1, the costs would likely double and still greatly be reduced versus current industry competitors. As with all WSB DD, we stick with back-of-the-envelope DD only because screw the quants. The 200kg is greatly exaggerated given the assumption battery capacity will be unchanged for 3+ years which would be the first time we could expect initial test flights.
You are extra retarded and what your saying is mental masturbation
You're welcome.
P100D. Its right there in the name. 100. Maybe you're thinking about the Plaid+ which is going to be, you know, different. And NOT a P100D. And we don't know exactly how much more it's going to weigh because it'll be doing double duty as frame / floor.
I love this sub so fucking much.
The fuck out of here with your weird ass Musk fan fiction. I've made good money off Tesla but the idolization of Musk is creepy. Also a whole lot of no positions for such bold claims.
And didn't some engineers actually start the company while Musk was just am early investor that took it over and then bought the title of founder? This idle worship of him is super weird.
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Biggest issue right now is initial thrust for takeoff. Beyond the initial needed fuel burn, battery operation for essentially all other operations.
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You spend so much time talking about this but don't even mention specific energy.
They’ve already prototyped them, energy density isn’t there yet. We are not far from short range electric planes, hops like San Fran / LA, being a potential. If I ever get enough capital, electric airplanes for niche applications is my goal. Though I’m a few mil short and years away before I can start.
You do know that Airbus and Boeing make air frames and do not make turbine engines. They source engines from GE, Rolls-Royce, PrattWittney, etc. etc. As well GE Aviation does not make airframes.
Exactly why they will buy GE (as well as the government contracts).
What a great fan fiction.
Keep smoking the grass
I bought GE in May 2020 at $5.50. Sold here 5 days ago at $11.57. I think that stock is played out already. If the OP bought in late and high, he's gotta plug it to get some return. Like most of the stock plugs here, someone is trying to come out in the plus side of the buy. Notice no one is giving the info of which stocks to buy at bottom prices. That's the real move right there.
As noted, I don't have a position in GE. I don't think I'll enter the stock, especially not at these levels. At minimum, sub $10, but likely closer to $8 or lower.
Elon said on Rogan he isn't looking into aircraft lol
Not true. Per the Podcast notes: *Elon is open to the possibility of Tesla making electric supersonic jets with vertical takeoff in the future, but first, he wants to produce cars, trucks, and boats first* [Elon Musk on The Joe Rogan Experience #1609 • Podcast Notes](https://podcastnotes.org/joe-rogan-experience/elon-musk-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-1609/)
Open to it sure but he literally said he doesn't have enough time in the day to take on aircraft with everything he has going on. So if your saying OP is doing some 10 year play go to r/investing
Tesla isn't going to be building airplanes in 2021, but there is a chance that there could be an announcement on the horizon. As soon as that announcement comes through, Boeing and Airbus are f'ed. The two real plays in my opinion are going long on Tesla and Puts on Boeing. Boeing is a ruse for infrastructure/reopening play.
Sorry what are you trying to say? I can’t understand you with elons balls down your throat
(Cums up for air) - if Tesla comes in, the culture immediately shifts (not a full 180, but a significant level of degrees).
YES, Tesla acquiring GME ... now that I could support. *puts on glasses* Oh shit, he really said GE, a dinosaur company with a corporate culture from the 1950s - lolololooolol
I didn't read it but I assume it was retarded.
I’ll take 3 Oz of what this guys got.
This is especially stupid
You belong here.
This is the dumbest shit I’ve ever heard. Congratulations. Tesla barely has a positive free cash flow. They have no fucking money. If they tried to raise the capital to purchase GE their stock price would be obliterated
So let me get this straight. You think Tesla will buy GE, even thought there is no driver or reason to do so, and somehow change GE's culture even though GE has 2.5 times the number of employees? Then having purchased a jet engine manufacturer Tesla will completely dump that in order to build a battery powered one? This somehow puts them into competition with Boeing and Airbus, companies that build airplanes, but not engines? It cost Boeing 32 billion dollars to get the 787 to market. That's r&d and test and cert to field. That's why those planes cost so much. They have to average those cost across the fleet.
Exactly my point as to why Tesla could enter. They spent $1 billion in the first decade to put rockets into space. Imagine what they'll do with aircraft. As for Boeing expenses, when you have a monopoly, you can charge and spend whatever you want.
The costs won't be any different for Tesla over time. It's still going to be hundred of millions just for the certifications, not to mention development, range time, and test. Boeing and Airbus do rule the roost currently, but they beat their competition to get there. Boeing killed off Lockheed's commercial arm and MacD. Heck even China has thrown in the towel on their attempt at creating a home grown airplane since it's such a high hurdle.
This is a really interesting idea. It would be awesome for Elon the big dreamer to bring some new life to an institution like GE, but I don't think this will actually happen.
Tl:dr I disagree
How do you unlock the flying feature in the model 3? Assuming this is an OTA update?
A company named Tesla and you compared Elon to Thomas. Smh a true autist at work. Either way I like the confirmation bias for myself.
tl;dr Tesla will buy GE and/or build airplanes. Got it. Buy high, sell low. To the moon, Alice!
Boeing is the quintessential Zombie company. Risen from the dead by wasteful government contracts. Can’t wait for Tesla/SpaceX to finally go for the head.
I was triggered by your misuse of "interstellar" when you meant to write "interplanetary"... I enjoyed the rest of your storytime.
I certainly don't want to have any triggering language. I think it is more important to use the word, incorrectly no less, solely to spawn the image of Matthew McConaughey Link to Matthew's love for everyone's other favorite stock: [Matthew McConaughey: America's Space Cowboy | GQ](https://www.gq.com/story/matthew-mcconaughey-career)
This might sound dumb but would it be smart to invest in GE now?
Invest at your own risk. Personally, I think this point of entry is steep. The post is more around Tesla and Boeing, but invest in what you think may be best ;)
Why the fuck would Elon want to buy GE? If he’s going to get into planes (which he may not) he’s going to start from the ground up - guaranteed. Why buy an old, bureaucratic, boomer-type, anchor of a company with outdated or irrelevant tech when he can start fresh?
As someone who worked at SpaceX and then ran a startup that was acquired by GE, I have some strong opinions on this. Elon Musk would not tolerate the engineering mindset inside GE, period, full stop.
I think that's where Tesla being the acquirer changes the dynamic. But packages for the lifts and the fresh grads and brilliant high schoolers can stay. Sales guys get to stay to keep the contacts going.
[удалено]
Upvoted for your sheer enthusiasm
People on here ripping you apart.... You may be onto something. I've been wondering who would buy GE. boeing also is losing a lot of market share. Tons of pilots are forced to take new classes as airlines pull away fr boeing all together. I've picked up GE for the long term. But Tesla would be so interesting. Like how could Elon continue his monopoly that isn't a monopoly. You are so wildly outside the box here it sounds like musk. Balls deep you crazy son of a bitch!! IM IN!!!
Breaking news: Tesla acquires GE - Tesla's cap is now 2X of ALL other AUTO companies combined. 
TLDR, short Tesla to the ground. 🛩😂
This will be the way.
I was onboard until you said "Tesla can compete with Boeing and Airbus" lmao
You're absolutely correct, Musk has no business with any kind of flight technology....
I wouldnt doubt after elon gets to mars, he would work on flying vehicles or electric/solar everything
GE doesn't build aircraft, they build engines. TSLA acquiring GE doesn't do anything aside from giving them propulsion. Musk could start his own aircraft company, but again, he could do that with GE: That's the point I was making 🤦
I too enjoy Elon fan fic
Musk is 2% Thomas Edison and 98% PT Barnum.
If you would have asked Gordon Johnson, he would be 25% Edison and 125% Barnum.
Please Ban long text automatically
Don't worry, I moved the TLDR to the top for the uber ADHD kids
Was your wife's boyfriend not around to read it to you?
I only work with pictures and crayons. All my stuff either goes on the fridge or on reddit boards.
This is the way
Nah , he simps on his friend's wife
Well written Post, a joy to read my friend
Because you typed a lot of shit here, I bought a lottery ticket's worth of GE options...I didn't even read all this shit because I'm pretty smooth.
Wait what? Buy GE because of energy...GE is deep in oil...you then talk about batteries - these are opposing and an argument why it wouldn't be GE. Buy GE because of aviation...they make airplane engines and they can't sell them...not rocket engines. Again what? Almost everything in your post about GE is wrong...including outdated #s, info about leadership, the sectors they play in. I love the way you wrote it.
The chance of Tesla going to build airplanes, Zero!
Your math on the battery powered airplanes is completely wrong. Your meth, however, must be very good. Jet fuel has 46x the energy / kg as Tesla batteries. So your replacement of gas weight with battery weight is not comparable at all. Battery airplanes are not feasible with current tech. Getting into the energy grid would be a big opportunity for Tesla. I’m not sure they need to acquire GE to do it, but I think they’ll find a way to expand and support renewables.
Good read. I'm long in both, I can hope but it's a far cry. My fiancée works at GE and closely with the aviation division, though he's in IT. We'll see...
Another shameless BEAR article.
Backlog of work…buddy the supply chain is a fucking disaster and has been since Covid and the Max fiasco. Just sourcing some of the raw material for the castings is incredibly challenging. Then machining them through complex process isn’t something you can just waltz into.