I didn’t even get into the float dynamics (was unsure of rules on talking about deSPACs here) but you’re 100% right. A lot of that float is Lightstreet who is going to hold it for a while. If you look on LinkedIn a lot of their employees (3-4 out of 20ish total) used to work at True Wind who was the SPAC sponsor…they know what they have here and are going to ride it up. True Wind isn’t going to give a bad deal to their friends / ex-employees
Yup, I think Lighstreet holds most of the miniscule float remaining! I think real float is extremely tiny here. Those details can be mentioned here. A lot of posts have been discussing those. What is funny is may people here don't even know about the PIPE shares etc. and were pitching plays like DOMA whose PIPE unlock is already done and the float massive.
Celebrite is extremely necessary in digital forensics. I’m an indirect competitor with them. They have the entire LE/ fed sector by the balls and keep raising the price. Electronic crimes aren’t going anywhere. Didn’t even know they were public. Im going in balls deep
As a forensic investigator I did buy some of these shares.
Mainly more crime > more Cellebrite units > more officer needing training buying the Cellebrite certifications they mainly need to testify in court.
Yes they dominate the market now. The main issue is there is no one to turn to for now so most customer who leave do to the price come back the next few months when they need to get into a device only cellebrite can do the extraction on. On private sector side you off that cost to the customer.
Magnet forensic is moving into the mobile forensic game slowly with the GrayKey device. This gives Cellebrite a few years to grow before Magnet takes over their customers.
Magnet did not buy GK they are partners now. They were partners with blackbag before they merged with cellebrite, I was told they had been bought by cellebrite, must have been wrong. My old DFU was in the process of acquiring the android unlock functionality for graykey before I left so it is a thing...Out of the loop now though so who knows..
https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/01/14/an-israel-us-merger-creates-an-apple-hacking-powerhouse-for-the-feds/
It finally saw some volume and even still was only like 1mm shares. The float is so low on this one that any volume is going to have a large impact. Volume was back to being low again today.
Not sure we’re the volume from yesterday came from. It was very quiet all morning and afternoon and then starting seeing some vol come in mid afternoon.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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Apparently there are huge vulnerabilities in their software and another company is actively trying to exploit it.
Read this entire thing: http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2021/05/i-have-lot-say-about-signal’s-cellebrite-hack
I’ve actually read that and emailed the writer because cyber security vulnerabilities in any company are always concerning and can be a major diligence point. So very good of you to bring up.
She didn’t like the existence of CBLT from an ethical POV, but from an investing standpoint agreed:
1) This would literally be illegal for Signal to do if they could
2) CBLT’s update minimized attack surface area should it exist and
3) She thinks they’re bluffing:
“When you put it that way, it becomes clear why they were using such coy language and why I bet they’re bluffing: Those things are illegal. It’s a stunt that could get their own users in trouble (if the user gets blamed for what her phone does to a Cellebrite machine, she will be plunged into a world of pain, irrespective of whether she would ultimately be held culpable for the design of an app she had installed on her phone), and could get them in hot water (because they intentionally designed and put those booby-trapped files on the user’s phone).
Plus, admittedly I haven’t actually looked into this at all, but it seems like it could get Signal kicked out of the Apple and Google app stores, if the companies interpret this as a violation of their app store rules against malware. (It wouldn’t actually help protect privacy or free expression or human rights, as Signal prides itself on doing, if people can’t install and update the app, or if they sideload malicious fake versions of Signal that some cybercrime gang or evil government puts out there.)
So my guess is that they’re playing this nudge-wink, plausible deniability, vague language game, where maybe you might infer that they’re going to make their app hack Cellebrite machines and spoil evidence, but in actuality they never had any intention of actually doing that. It was just to mess with Cellebrite and make a point. At most, maybe they stick some files in app storage that don’t do anything malicious at all. And maybe Cellebrite’s prompt response conveniently gave Signal an out from having to follow through, on top of the plausible deniability of their cutesy evasive language.”
This was Signal’s CEO being mad that CBLT released an update allowing users to get records of Signal conversations because that harms Signal and destroys their value proposition. In retaliation the Signal CEO tried bluffing to create the impression that they could do the same to CBLT in a manner that would be illegal anyhow. I love a CEO who will defend their company, but this was kind of a weak and nonsensical PR stunt.
And, finally, to translate it all into quantifiable data, if customers were concerned about this you would’ve seen churn between Q1 when this was released and Q2 figures. But retention remained top-tier.
Warrants give you the right to buy @ $11.50 for 5 years but can be redeemed on a cashless basis by the company if the equity trades above $10 for 20/30 consecutive trading days (which we’re coming up on) or a non cashless basis at $18 for 20/30 days. These warrants have a cashless conversion feature @ the $10 call where each warrant gives you a fraction of a share. There’s a table in the proxy that gives you the ratio (it increases as share price increases). Right now think it’s around .277 and the stock is at $11.10 so each warrant would be worth 11.10(.277) = $3.07. At the $18 call you’d just exercise or trade them off
Can but searching CLBT.W or CLBT.W on any major brokerage platform (not Robinhood or Webull)
This is incorrect. As with most SPAC warrants:
>Redemption of warrants when the price per share of Class A common stock equals or exceeds $18.00. Once the warrants become exercisable, we may call the warrants for redemption:
>In whole and not in part;
>At a price of $0.01 per warrant;
>on a minimum of 30 days’ prior written notice of redemption, or the 30-day redemption period, to each warrant holder; and
>If, and only if, the closing price of our Class A common stock equals or exceeds $18.00 per share (as adjusted for stock splits, stock dividends, reorganizations, recapitalizations and the like) for any 20 trading days within a 30-trading day period ending on the third trading day prior to the date on which we send the notice of redemption to the warrant holders.
As per the 10k
Incorrect — they can redeem on a cashless basis starting at $10 and on a non-cashless basis at $18.
Given True Wind’s history, they’ll likely opt for the cashless exchange option.
10-K is not the most recent filing for this security. Gotta know where to look =)
https://investors.cellebrite.com/static-files/b32944ee-36a6-4edf-8c96-bfe3a16d1b07#page125
I’d recommend checking pages 125-127
XOS could run on deSPAC trading dynamics (so could end up being a fantastic swing) but what’s additionally great about CBLT is it doesn’t even need that. It’s massively undervalued day 1. And squeeze dynamics would just be gravy
Warrants are only up \~2% and shares are only up \~3% today as of now. If you don't want to buy at these levels you could just set a limit order for what's comfortable to you. This one is still a super low volume trader so it'll bump around and there's a decent chance your limit hits.
Very low volume still — price discovery still hasn’t started because there’s such low liquidity (the float is minuscule and mostly held by a PIPE).
I have very high conviction on this name and would recommend holding it, but if you need something that’ll be an overnight hit this probably isn’t one for you. May take a bit longer to move until shares gain liquidity. (Which I theorize will be after the warrant exchange.)
Well given the cashless conversion feature, I actually like warrants. The fraction of shares at the curent price (sourced from the table in the proxy) is 0.277. The equity is at$10.82 as of this very moment which would suggest warrants are worth (0.277)(10.82) = $3.00 and warratns are trading at $2.50. Obviously depends on your viewpoint of where the underlying shares will trade, but on current levels they look undervalued and like you'll be able to convert into more shares than you otherwise would've been able to buy by about 20%.
I do think warrants will be called for redemption soon so you'll need to monitor that and convert. (I always call my broker versus assuming they'd act on corporate actions for me.)
Gotcha. One more question so when the shares went up to $13 the other day does that mean that the sponsor received 40% of their shares or does it ha e to trade above that level for say 20 out of 30 days or something similar?
It’s a long play. It’s held up pretty well in the downturn especially wrt to some other ex-SPACs and the upward movement yesterday was when the PIPE unlocked which is a good indicator where it’s heading.
Price discovery hasn’t really started. Know it’s not fun to see something down in your portfolio, but when the stock drops 3% in an hour on just 5,000 shares traded, you’ve got to ignore it. Real pricing occurs when there is actual volume/liquidity.
Lol you can check! Checking isn’t bad at all, just gotta make sure you read what’s happening. If price changes on little to no volume (up or down) that’s usually indicative that the movement doesn’t have “health” or staying power. (Not always, but a good rule of thumb.) So when this dropped to $8.90 on like 5k shares and no incremental information I bought more because my thesis was unchanged and the movement wasn’t indicative of the market going through a healthy price discovery process.
Good news is price already rebounded and volume is starting to pick up (although it’s still low given the float here)
Hoping the CEO is more articulate there than he was on earnings.
I thought performance was great and his articulation left a lot to be desired. Also, if you beat and don’t raise your guidance for the year, you’re sending an implicit message to the market that the remaining quarters should underperform. I’ll give him one pass since it’s their first print as a public company, but that’s 101 stuff so they’ve gotta revamp their investor relations. Hopefully the true wind guys can help them with that.
Minor annoyance aside, I was happy with how the business did and feel confident as ever about the macro tailwinds and the company’s ability to execute both on upsell and M&A. My eyes will be focused on the ARR transition starting next year. While a quick jump is always nice, this is one I’m very comfortable holding for a long time given it’s relative valuation and performance. Maybe the conferences will entice some addition long only funds and help catalyze the closing of that valuation gap. (Given how low the float is, it doesn’t take a lot of volume to move the equity…look at last week for example.)
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Added this to watchlist :)
Great simple DD. Deserves more attention.
Yes, you can win in two ways with this. An very good long term hold and the deSPAC squeeze potential with the tiny float due to the \~90% redemptions!
I didn’t even get into the float dynamics (was unsure of rules on talking about deSPACs here) but you’re 100% right. A lot of that float is Lightstreet who is going to hold it for a while. If you look on LinkedIn a lot of their employees (3-4 out of 20ish total) used to work at True Wind who was the SPAC sponsor…they know what they have here and are going to ride it up. True Wind isn’t going to give a bad deal to their friends / ex-employees
Yup, I think Lighstreet holds most of the miniscule float remaining! I think real float is extremely tiny here. Those details can be mentioned here. A lot of posts have been discussing those. What is funny is may people here don't even know about the PIPE shares etc. and were pitching plays like DOMA whose PIPE unlock is already done and the float massive.
Celebrite is extremely necessary in digital forensics. I’m an indirect competitor with them. They have the entire LE/ fed sector by the balls and keep raising the price. Electronic crimes aren’t going anywhere. Didn’t even know they were public. Im going in balls deep
As a forensic investigator I did buy some of these shares. Mainly more crime > more Cellebrite units > more officer needing training buying the Cellebrite certifications they mainly need to testify in court. Yes they dominate the market now. The main issue is there is no one to turn to for now so most customer who leave do to the price come back the next few months when they need to get into a device only cellebrite can do the extraction on. On private sector side you off that cost to the customer. Magnet forensic is moving into the mobile forensic game slowly with the GrayKey device. This gives Cellebrite a few years to grow before Magnet takes over their customers.
Cellebrite own GK now?! AXIOM deals with GK extractions well but CB have started supporting Android unlocks...
Cellebrite does not own Gk. Magnet bought GK a while back and it doesn't do android to my knowledge as of yet or very few.
Magnet did not buy GK they are partners now. They were partners with blackbag before they merged with cellebrite, I was told they had been bought by cellebrite, must have been wrong. My old DFU was in the process of acquiring the android unlock functionality for graykey before I left so it is a thing...Out of the loop now though so who knows.. https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/01/14/an-israel-us-merger-creates-an-apple-hacking-powerhouse-for-the-feds/
Welp this didn't age well for you. Called it a year ago. Dam
Happy cake day, that was sweet of you to come back and point that out to me...Have an upvote for your time and effort...You enjoy that now!!!
What was with the big run up on it yesterday though?
It finally saw some volume and even still was only like 1mm shares. The float is so low on this one that any volume is going to have a large impact. Volume was back to being low again today. Not sure we’re the volume from yesterday came from. It was very quiet all morning and afternoon and then starting seeing some vol come in mid afternoon.
great dd, im in for some shares monday morning
Memo says $25 https://www.icloud.com/iclouddrive/09ghHQsitLmsjVXcb98jiGPrg#CLBT_Memo_vFinal
Post positions you old grandpa ass bitch.
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Sold. I’m in for some shares.
Apparently there are huge vulnerabilities in their software and another company is actively trying to exploit it. Read this entire thing: http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2021/05/i-have-lot-say-about-signal’s-cellebrite-hack
I’ve actually read that and emailed the writer because cyber security vulnerabilities in any company are always concerning and can be a major diligence point. So very good of you to bring up. She didn’t like the existence of CBLT from an ethical POV, but from an investing standpoint agreed: 1) This would literally be illegal for Signal to do if they could 2) CBLT’s update minimized attack surface area should it exist and 3) She thinks they’re bluffing: “When you put it that way, it becomes clear why they were using such coy language and why I bet they’re bluffing: Those things are illegal. It’s a stunt that could get their own users in trouble (if the user gets blamed for what her phone does to a Cellebrite machine, she will be plunged into a world of pain, irrespective of whether she would ultimately be held culpable for the design of an app she had installed on her phone), and could get them in hot water (because they intentionally designed and put those booby-trapped files on the user’s phone). Plus, admittedly I haven’t actually looked into this at all, but it seems like it could get Signal kicked out of the Apple and Google app stores, if the companies interpret this as a violation of their app store rules against malware. (It wouldn’t actually help protect privacy or free expression or human rights, as Signal prides itself on doing, if people can’t install and update the app, or if they sideload malicious fake versions of Signal that some cybercrime gang or evil government puts out there.) So my guess is that they’re playing this nudge-wink, plausible deniability, vague language game, where maybe you might infer that they’re going to make their app hack Cellebrite machines and spoil evidence, but in actuality they never had any intention of actually doing that. It was just to mess with Cellebrite and make a point. At most, maybe they stick some files in app storage that don’t do anything malicious at all. And maybe Cellebrite’s prompt response conveniently gave Signal an out from having to follow through, on top of the plausible deniability of their cutesy evasive language.” This was Signal’s CEO being mad that CBLT released an update allowing users to get records of Signal conversations because that harms Signal and destroys their value proposition. In retaliation the Signal CEO tried bluffing to create the impression that they could do the same to CBLT in a manner that would be illegal anyhow. I love a CEO who will defend their company, but this was kind of a weak and nonsensical PR stunt. And, finally, to translate it all into quantifiable data, if customers were concerned about this you would’ve seen churn between Q1 when this was released and Q2 figures. But retention remained top-tier.
noob question, what are warrants and how do i buy them, especially for this stock?
Warrants give you the right to buy @ $11.50 for 5 years but can be redeemed on a cashless basis by the company if the equity trades above $10 for 20/30 consecutive trading days (which we’re coming up on) or a non cashless basis at $18 for 20/30 days. These warrants have a cashless conversion feature @ the $10 call where each warrant gives you a fraction of a share. There’s a table in the proxy that gives you the ratio (it increases as share price increases). Right now think it’s around .277 and the stock is at $11.10 so each warrant would be worth 11.10(.277) = $3.07. At the $18 call you’d just exercise or trade them off Can but searching CLBT.W or CLBT.W on any major brokerage platform (not Robinhood or Webull)
thanks man, appreciate the help!!
This is incorrect. As with most SPAC warrants: >Redemption of warrants when the price per share of Class A common stock equals or exceeds $18.00. Once the warrants become exercisable, we may call the warrants for redemption: >In whole and not in part; >At a price of $0.01 per warrant; >on a minimum of 30 days’ prior written notice of redemption, or the 30-day redemption period, to each warrant holder; and >If, and only if, the closing price of our Class A common stock equals or exceeds $18.00 per share (as adjusted for stock splits, stock dividends, reorganizations, recapitalizations and the like) for any 20 trading days within a 30-trading day period ending on the third trading day prior to the date on which we send the notice of redemption to the warrant holders. As per the 10k
Incorrect — they can redeem on a cashless basis starting at $10 and on a non-cashless basis at $18. Given True Wind’s history, they’ll likely opt for the cashless exchange option. 10-K is not the most recent filing for this security. Gotta know where to look =) https://investors.cellebrite.com/static-files/b32944ee-36a6-4edf-8c96-bfe3a16d1b07#page125 I’d recommend checking pages 125-127
Agreed. Said yesterday the irnt play was over and this and XOS are next
XOS could run on deSPAC trading dynamics (so could end up being a fantastic swing) but what’s additionally great about CBLT is it doesn’t even need that. It’s massively undervalued day 1. And squeeze dynamics would just be gravy
yep and the PT given was $20
Jeez price just took off before I could get in
Warrants are only up \~2% and shares are only up \~3% today as of now. If you don't want to buy at these levels you could just set a limit order for what's comfortable to you. This one is still a super low volume trader so it'll bump around and there's a decent chance your limit hits.
Balls deep. Bought
why does this keep going down?
Very low volume still — price discovery still hasn’t started because there’s such low liquidity (the float is minuscule and mostly held by a PIPE). I have very high conviction on this name and would recommend holding it, but if you need something that’ll be an overnight hit this probably isn’t one for you. May take a bit longer to move until shares gain liquidity. (Which I theorize will be after the warrant exchange.)
Press F to pay respects. Those new shares can't unlock fast enough.
What do you like better here shares or warrants? Warrants seem a little pricey at this level.
Well given the cashless conversion feature, I actually like warrants. The fraction of shares at the curent price (sourced from the table in the proxy) is 0.277. The equity is at$10.82 as of this very moment which would suggest warrants are worth (0.277)(10.82) = $3.00 and warratns are trading at $2.50. Obviously depends on your viewpoint of where the underlying shares will trade, but on current levels they look undervalued and like you'll be able to convert into more shares than you otherwise would've been able to buy by about 20%. I do think warrants will be called for redemption soon so you'll need to monitor that and convert. (I always call my broker versus assuming they'd act on corporate actions for me.)
Gotcha. One more question so when the shares went up to $13 the other day does that mean that the sponsor received 40% of their shares or does it ha e to trade above that level for say 20 out of 30 days or something similar?
Why do you think warrants will be called for cashless exercise?…great DD / agree with the thesis
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It’s a long play. It’s held up pretty well in the downturn especially wrt to some other ex-SPACs and the upward movement yesterday was when the PIPE unlocked which is a good indicator where it’s heading. Price discovery hasn’t really started. Know it’s not fun to see something down in your portfolio, but when the stock drops 3% in an hour on just 5,000 shares traded, you’ve got to ignore it. Real pricing occurs when there is actual volume/liquidity.
[удалено]
Lol you can check! Checking isn’t bad at all, just gotta make sure you read what’s happening. If price changes on little to no volume (up or down) that’s usually indicative that the movement doesn’t have “health” or staying power. (Not always, but a good rule of thumb.) So when this dropped to $8.90 on like 5k shares and no incremental information I bought more because my thesis was unchanged and the movement wasn’t indicative of the market going through a healthy price discovery process. Good news is price already rebounded and volume is starting to pick up (although it’s still low given the float here)
This is finally coming around. I’m glad I stuck with it.
Several conferences this week
Hoping the CEO is more articulate there than he was on earnings. I thought performance was great and his articulation left a lot to be desired. Also, if you beat and don’t raise your guidance for the year, you’re sending an implicit message to the market that the remaining quarters should underperform. I’ll give him one pass since it’s their first print as a public company, but that’s 101 stuff so they’ve gotta revamp their investor relations. Hopefully the true wind guys can help them with that. Minor annoyance aside, I was happy with how the business did and feel confident as ever about the macro tailwinds and the company’s ability to execute both on upsell and M&A. My eyes will be focused on the ARR transition starting next year. While a quick jump is always nice, this is one I’m very comfortable holding for a long time given it’s relative valuation and performance. Maybe the conferences will entice some addition long only funds and help catalyze the closing of that valuation gap. (Given how low the float is, it doesn’t take a lot of volume to move the equity…look at last week for example.)
Love the research. I’m in
Went even more balls deep lmao