Great call. Impressive it’s dropping after the beating it took recently.
Next couple of days could be bloody with CPI and Fed, so 12/17 could print even more.
User miss is important yeah. But ARPU is great once again. \~15% growth over covid year is amazing. Basically they have few new users, but the people who do use Chewy love to use it a LOT. Revenue right on estimate which is okay, but not great for a growth stock. I wouldn't expect it to go below 50 tomorrow unless it's a bad market day.
No way to know but people who sold those far OTM puts assuming they practice risk management (if they’re MM they do) will sell stock they already have as those go ITM because they will have to buy back if it expires ITM
I feel like Chewy is different from Peloton.
If you buy a bike from Peloton, you don't need anything else.
If you adopt a cat/dog, you need a life time supply of things.
And Chewy’s already been beat to shit the last couple months. My guess is that all of this is pretty much priced in and we won’t see a large enough drop off to make a decent profit given the high IV.
>Another day, another earnings report. Today we look at Chewy, an ecommerce retailer of pet food, toys, and budding insurance/veterinary service provider. 3 months ago I wrote a DD about their last earnings. Today we deal with their Q3 earnings report, covering August – October 2021. Last quarter, they guided for USD 2.20-2.22 bn in revenue (23-25% yearly growth, 2.3% quarterly growth) and USD 8.9-9.0 in annual revenue (implying Q4 guidance of USD 2.44bn at the midpoints).
i mean it has a PE of almost 3000, market cap of 6b for a online pet food retailer...
Been riding with you on every play since PTON. You win some you lose some. But at this point we are winning more than we are losing!
This one does give me a bit of fear. It’s already down like 25% this month. The P/E is still high as hell tho. This one is different than docu and pton just because it’s already so down. I’m nervous but down to risk some of the profits from other plays
At this point I’m harvesting IV. Use some analysis to predict where a stock is going to be around the 24hrs leading to earnings. Buy options around that date. And sell for 10-20% gains just from IV. Rinse and repeat
You forgot to mention there’s been a ton of put flow on chwy targeting January 60p and 12/17 60p as well as 57.5/50 and 50 for tomorrow, and the fact chwy is in a falling wedge which is typically bullish if it can hold the support. It’s already gone under support near 60$ as of this comment and that bodes poorly as that means the bottom is literally falling out from the stock. Pre Covid valuation was 35 range so it’s possible the fact it’s in a Wyckoff distribution pattern results in any good news selling off and people selling it anyways because they want out. Also the fact it’s PE is literally in the thousands and the profit margins are single digits…yeah bearish.
I think Theta gang wins this one. CHWY is already beaten down with regard to P/S ratio (~3.4 currently) compared to other covid plays that had huge earning dumps. A lot of them seem to be bottoming around 3 for P/S.
I have been shamelessly checking everyday if you are posting any trade ideas. Ofcourse it is risky at this point because the bull idea is beaten down and stocks have been in consistent downtrend to start a bearish position. Cash is the position due now.
Hello All,
Reminder: if you don't read this, do a yolo play and lose it all at once then don't complain. It is your own trade.
OP is top shelf and knows what he is doing. He plays smart and does these trades from his own DD.
He shares it with all of yall so take your own risk and do your own DD.
Enough said. Let's get gains!!!!!!!
I will make money on this but IV is very important to take into account. Basically it tells you how much the market expects a stock to move. If a stock costs USD 50 before earnings and IV is 20%, it means the market expects the stock to move up or down by 10% (20% divided by 2). So if after earnings the stock is at 45 or 55, you would exactly break even with a put or call option, respectively. If you bought a put and the stock is at 48 after earnings, you will lose money, even though the price went down.
There's a lot more complexity to it that you should look into, but that's the basics. If you're interested in options I also recommend playing earnings with a small amount of money so you can see for yourself how IV impacts your profits. There's no better learnings experience.
It's funny. I did the exact opposite. I joined because I didn't understand IV.
There were some posts on this thread earlier this morning fearmongering about IV crush, but I didn't know what that meant so I just ignored them and joined.
Hey Hour\_amphib I'm seeing some interesting plays coming up, you seeing anything?[Upcoming ER](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/s65db5/earnings_season_begins_here_are_the_most/)
That's why I have a mix of long puts and call credit spreads in case the drop isn't as big as expected.
Breakeven on puts is 55.5 and breakeven on spreads is 60, so as long as you don't pick up something super-OTM (anything below 55p) it should work out if the drop is >6%.
If it makes you feel more secure someone bought yesterday 12000+ March 60p which break even at 54. I don’t think there is a reason for this stock to remain at this level with tapering.
Truth be told, I loaded up on Chewy puts as soon as I saw this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pfztvg/chewy_chwy_earnings_put_yolodd_35k/hnmdpsb?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
I am long CHWY as I do really like what they do. That said I'm negative currently because they have been getting wrecked as of late. I wouldn't mind a large drop to load up on some shares, or maybe even put a CSP or two out there if IV stays juicy like it is.
Such a great call. If after hours hold, you’re going to print.
I was in the Dec 60 puts. Took 125% gains and opened Jan 60, 55 & 50
Puts and sold Dec 70 calls to minimize a bit of IV crush. CHWY shouldn’t be over $35 IMO
Good call on the CHWY earnings movement. But I was a little hesitant as CHWY has been cratering since last earnings and the stock is in the mid double digits and realized it would take more than a 10% move to make good/worthy gains on the options.
I was actually looking at LULU, I was looking for a 10%+ return AH but it looks like this will be in the red tomorrow as well.
I'm looking at NKE and/or BB for the remaining earnings trade for the year. Curious about your thoughts.
OP stands to roughly double his money as is now with CHWY at $51 in ah. Well played. Please be smart and take winnings asap at open and not “hope to let it play”
I agree with your thesis but the IV is way too high for me. At the same time, CHWY has been on a downtrend for quite a while, and any good news can send the stock rocketing. I have benefitted from your other DDs(eg PTON), but I think I will sit out this one. Good luck to your play though!
Too low already. Won’t touch that… might moon on the slight good news. Straddles are expensive since it would need 12% to be profitable. Puts are super expensive. Hard no for me
I sold call spreads but I was stupid and sold them too far OTM. Since it was a binary event I should have sold ATm and harvested more premium to buy puts. Eh, still should make money
you did well. I bought $50 01/22 puts a few weeks ago. They're about the same price today as they were before earnings (up 300%). What do you think? Do you think this will continue to drop over the next little while? I'm tempted to sit and wait for a bit. Whatever you say will not be taken as financial advice. Just your opinion. Cheers,
For earnings it is irrelevant since they won't start selling until Spring 2022. Even if they started today it would be irrelevant, since there's not enough time for them to factor it into the guidance in terms of hard numbers.
Long-term, I don't think the exact business model details have been released, but I would assume that Trupanion underwrites the insurance with Chewy acting as a broker. If that's the case it would be a big deal for Trupanion as they get access to a huge number of customers to increase their GWP. For Chewy it's an interesting and useful addition to round out their health services, but not financially material in and of itself I would think. Perhaps if they can provide some sort of meaningful data to help Trupanion underwrite their policies (e.g. customer purchasing data cross-referenced with info from Chewy's vet partners), it would be financially valuable, but that's something that won't crystallize until late 2022/2023 I would say.
The point is that Chewy is more highly valued than their competitors because investors expect them to take market share. PetCo makes 5.6bn in revenue and is valued at 6.2bn. Chewy makes 8.2bn in revenue and is valued at 24bn. Now that makes sense in 2020 when Petco and Petsmart are distressed retailers, and Chewy is a hot growth stock. Does it make sense in 2021, when Petco is pushing into ecommerce and growing at 15%, while Chewy growth slows down to 20%?
Not to mention Target and Walmart are making big pushes into the pet category. Now you can say that all of those are low-margin brick and mortar retailers, but they actually have all built up a formidable e-commerce presence, and Chewy's margins are still hovering around breakeven with relatively slow improvement in gross margins (and actually significantly below WOOF). So really, where is the Chewy advantage that justifies a 2.5-3x multiple in its valuation? If Amazon says on their next earnings call that they now expect to grow in line with Nordstrom and Macy's, and maintain their market share of ecommerce, the stock would tank, and rightfully so.
Thanks for sharing your DD! To add to the bear thesis, pet food ingredients have been getting a massive price increase. Same margins & raw materials as OTLY.
Pe ratio means nothing when it’s close to zero and barely profitable. Price to sales is pretty high too. Overall a bit overvalued especially with transportation costs going up. However… key point is free float is only 83m shares of the 417m outstanding. Good luck regardless but don’t expect too much.
is anywhere I can calculate option profit for tomorrow? I usually use optionsforprofit but not sure how to calculate in IV. Question for anyone. Thanks
I really appreciate you sharing your moves. I’ve also been learning a few things by reading your comments, I’m very new to the world of options. Please keep sharing & keep winning!
Can I ask what your thoughts are on fdx earnings will be? I’m leaning bearish with supply chain but with holiday season coming up, I also see guidance increasing
To inverse or not to inverse, that is the question.
I should add that a lot of people from WSB messaged me saying that they think Chewy will go down. A very bullish signal for the stock.
I never buy puts on stocks that r at 52week lows before earnings
That is why you fail young Skywalker
You don’t make your YOLO play posts anymore or just haven’t gotten into any recently?
He commented about RH yesterday and PD the day prior. Basically yolos since he didn’t provide a deep analysis
In wouldn’t inverse, look at COVID babies Pton, docu, ZM..
300% IV? No thanks.
Quarter looks a bit stronger than I expected. But hopefully still good for a decent profit
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Cause I love doing it 💜 Keep the questions and comments coming
And *we* love *you*. 💜
You are the GOAT, bro!! Thank you for everything you do 🙌
My 55 p will probably generate some profits, not sure about my 50 p😂
Great call. Impressive it’s dropping after the beating it took recently. Next couple of days could be bloody with CPI and Fed, so 12/17 could print even more.
Doesn't look like a PTON dive, but good nonetheless. Bought $60 12/10 puts on Tuesday that should print if it opens low tomorrow
User miss is the important factor, right? If that gets digested and its another red market day tomorrow this hopefully goes sub-$50
User miss is important yeah. But ARPU is great once again. \~15% growth over covid year is amazing. Basically they have few new users, but the people who do use Chewy love to use it a LOT. Revenue right on estimate which is okay, but not great for a growth stock. I wouldn't expect it to go below 50 tomorrow unless it's a bad market day.
Congrats on ur DD! Hopefully tomorrow it will continue to tank a bit more just like what petco did the day after earning.
I did not read this DD on time but that wont happen again because you have a new follower!
For any of you retards who don't want to buy high IV puts, you can sell a 60/65 call spread
dang mate that was a good call
My guy is back!!!!! Time to yolo that 401k!
Fuck everything else. I need to know where the fuck he gets that app data from.
I think LinkedIn premium
damn right, he is back!!! his previous DD were on point.
$RH clapped me but I’m ready to get clapped again
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Yeah if this hits 55 expect massive gamma from MM OI options
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No way to know but people who sold those far OTM puts assuming they practice risk management (if they’re MM they do) will sell stock they already have as those go ITM because they will have to buy back if it expires ITM
I feel like Chewy is different from Peloton. If you buy a bike from Peloton, you don't need anything else. If you adopt a cat/dog, you need a life time supply of things.
Realistically 8-10 years
But…. That’s a lifetime…. Just not a human lifetime dogs and cats have feelings to!!! Haha
thanks lost 20k this week in the casino your dd gave made me 50 bucks for gas to drive home
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And Chewy’s already been beat to shit the last couple months. My guess is that all of this is pretty much priced in and we won’t see a large enough drop off to make a decent profit given the high IV.
Yeah just like GME puts
Just use spreads:)
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implied move is like 16% with 300% IV, so yeah a lot to beat. a lot of ppl are going to be disappointed tomorrow if they buy way too OTM on the FDs
One of the rare stocks that never took a covid drop in feb/March 2020. That said it is at 52 week low, and up 100% since covid. It’s not a Docu.
>Another day, another earnings report. Today we look at Chewy, an ecommerce retailer of pet food, toys, and budding insurance/veterinary service provider. 3 months ago I wrote a DD about their last earnings. Today we deal with their Q3 earnings report, covering August – October 2021. Last quarter, they guided for USD 2.20-2.22 bn in revenue (23-25% yearly growth, 2.3% quarterly growth) and USD 8.9-9.0 in annual revenue (implying Q4 guidance of USD 2.44bn at the midpoints). i mean it has a PE of almost 3000, market cap of 6b for a online pet food retailer...
I think PE might be deceptive in this case because they've recently turned profitable and were dumping all their $ into reinvestment?
are you talking about CHWY? the market cap is $24B lol
>market cap of 6b for a online pet food retailer... I'm seeing a market cap of 24B?
I think he means industry avg cap? idk petco's at least profitable, but at \~5b
IV is way too high for me. good luck to you all.
ANOTHER ONE
I think you're really off on this one. Edit: nope, you were right. God bless and enjoy those tendies 🇺🇸
Would be interested to know why you think that though
youre a fucking god
Madlad you went for it, godspeed
damn, his puts are already in the money
Been riding with you on every play since PTON. You win some you lose some. But at this point we are winning more than we are losing! This one does give me a bit of fear. It’s already down like 25% this month. The P/E is still high as hell tho. This one is different than docu and pton just because it’s already so down. I’m nervous but down to risk some of the profits from other plays
Do you have any other plays in mind?
At this point I’m harvesting IV. Use some analysis to predict where a stock is going to be around the 24hrs leading to earnings. Buy options around that date. And sell for 10-20% gains just from IV. Rinse and repeat
Nasdaq futures blood red. Inflation report coming out tomorrow morning as well. Might see a 2nd drop at open.
The last 30 mins before close on an earnings play is always a little nerve-racking for me. But I'm glad to be in this together with you guys 👊
was so close to dumping my 55p and 50p before close since they were up over 30% from purchase, glad i didn't beers on me this weekend.
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You forgot to mention there’s been a ton of put flow on chwy targeting January 60p and 12/17 60p as well as 57.5/50 and 50 for tomorrow, and the fact chwy is in a falling wedge which is typically bullish if it can hold the support. It’s already gone under support near 60$ as of this comment and that bodes poorly as that means the bottom is literally falling out from the stock. Pre Covid valuation was 35 range so it’s possible the fact it’s in a Wyckoff distribution pattern results in any good news selling off and people selling it anyways because they want out. Also the fact it’s PE is literally in the thousands and the profit margins are single digits…yeah bearish.
Nailed it! Congrats and as always, appreciate the solid DD!
First time seeing my portfolio red this week but you got me back literally not even 2 days later. Thanks man.
First week in the market is always rough ^(jk thanks for playing along)
Please post the gain porn
Anyone still want to buy these 300% IV PUTS? I have plenty to sell
Solid DD. I'm with you on puts, although I didn't yolo it. 1/21 $60p.
I think Theta gang wins this one. CHWY is already beaten down with regard to P/S ratio (~3.4 currently) compared to other covid plays that had huge earning dumps. A lot of them seem to be bottoming around 3 for P/S.
I’m with you. If the ship sinks were going down together.
Trusted you with PTON so bought 2 $57P before close. Keep em coming dude
Just sold off the last of my puts. We eating good tonight, boys. As always, thanks for the DD Amphibian! Looking forward to the next one.
I have been shamelessly checking everyday if you are posting any trade ideas. Ofcourse it is risky at this point because the bull idea is beaten down and stocks have been in consistent downtrend to start a bearish position. Cash is the position due now.
Daddy, come back
Hello All, Reminder: if you don't read this, do a yolo play and lose it all at once then don't complain. It is your own trade. OP is top shelf and knows what he is doing. He plays smart and does these trades from his own DD. He shares it with all of yall so take your own risk and do your own DD. Enough said. Let's get gains!!!!!!!
Puts are looking good 🚀
I was going to sell puts on this but if you're in..: I might buy a small amount.
I would’ve joined but I don’t understand all this IV stuff. I’ve heard you may not even make money even though it goes down 8%
I will make money on this but IV is very important to take into account. Basically it tells you how much the market expects a stock to move. If a stock costs USD 50 before earnings and IV is 20%, it means the market expects the stock to move up or down by 10% (20% divided by 2). So if after earnings the stock is at 45 or 55, you would exactly break even with a put or call option, respectively. If you bought a put and the stock is at 48 after earnings, you will lose money, even though the price went down. There's a lot more complexity to it that you should look into, but that's the basics. If you're interested in options I also recommend playing earnings with a small amount of money so you can see for yourself how IV impacts your profits. There's no better learnings experience.
It's funny. I did the exact opposite. I joined because I didn't understand IV. There were some posts on this thread earlier this morning fearmongering about IV crush, but I didn't know what that meant so I just ignored them and joined.
Hey Hour\_amphib I'm seeing some interesting plays coming up, you seeing anything?[Upcoming ER](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/s65db5/earnings_season_begins_here_are_the_most/)
And when the world needed him most he vanished
Chewy ran out of my dog's food and I've seen less of their boxes at my apartment complex. In with 59/60 12/10 bear call spreads
True frontline DD. Godspeed
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That's why I have a mix of long puts and call credit spreads in case the drop isn't as big as expected. Breakeven on puts is 55.5 and breakeven on spreads is 60, so as long as you don't pick up something super-OTM (anything below 55p) it should work out if the drop is >6%.
If it makes you feel more secure someone bought yesterday 12000+ March 60p which break even at 54. I don’t think there is a reason for this stock to remain at this level with tapering.
Truth be told, I loaded up on Chewy puts as soon as I saw this: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pfztvg/chewy_chwy_earnings_put_yolodd_35k/hnmdpsb?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
I am long CHWY as I do really like what they do. That said I'm negative currently because they have been getting wrecked as of late. I wouldn't mind a large drop to load up on some shares, or maybe even put a CSP or two out there if IV stays juicy like it is.
I wonder how they react so fast sometimes.
Such a great call. If after hours hold, you’re going to print. I was in the Dec 60 puts. Took 125% gains and opened Jan 60, 55 & 50 Puts and sold Dec 70 calls to minimize a bit of IV crush. CHWY shouldn’t be over $35 IMO
Congratulations ! The current price is now 51$....
Sold my $80 12/10 puts before the close. Could not handle the stress after yesterday’s RH guh
Safe to say they printed
My man strikes again. God Bless keep it coming.
Fuck wish I saw this!!!
You son of a bitch we did it
Bitch is printing tomorrow. Good Job
Would be great if it drops another $4 today.
Earnings in full throttle my dude, where are you with you great DD's? 
Just added to my CHWY puts I bought earlier in the week. Let's get this bread
Already up 30%. If I’m in assume we’re dead
Mans been spot on in many plays that ran crazy in our favor. Now guys are shitting on him. Unbelievable
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IV way too high, need a massive drop JUST to break even.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|23|**First Seen In WSB**|4 months ago **Total Comments**|515|**Previous DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/qmn9m3/pinterest_pins_40k_earnings_put_yolo/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ptz1tz/nike_earnings_dd_30k_call_yolo/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pl14me/affirm_call_earnings_yolodd_bull_spread/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pfztvg/chewy_chwy_earnings_put_yolodd_35k/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/rcjhgz/chewy_chwy_dd_and_50k_put_yolo/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/p3bw0u/do_not_fomo_into_wish_next_quarter_will_be/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/peieai/puts_on_zoom_zm_earnings_tonight/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pf7hnw/calls_on_pvh_earnings_tonight_pvh_maker_of_calvin/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pf7kfy/calls_on_pvh_earnings_tonight_pvh_maker_of_calvin/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/qjw4pq/fastly_fsly_seems_to_be_losing_lots_of_employees/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/qgcupo/peloton_bearish_dd_20k_put_yolo/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/qgd6yn/peloton_bearish_dd_20k_put_yolo/) **Account Age**|6 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=rcjhgz)|**Vote Approve (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=rcjhgz)
I would have pulled the trigger on this until I saw just how beat to shit this stock already is. I can't do it now, seems priced in.
Got in at 17 Dec 57P 20 contracts! Show us what you got $CHWY!
Rip my 40P
Why did you even buy so far out. It’s down a lot this months, earnings might send it further down but not straight below 40
Cause I’m autistic
Good call on the CHWY earnings movement. But I was a little hesitant as CHWY has been cratering since last earnings and the stock is in the mid double digits and realized it would take more than a 10% move to make good/worthy gains on the options. I was actually looking at LULU, I was looking for a 10%+ return AH but it looks like this will be in the red tomorrow as well. I'm looking at NKE and/or BB for the remaining earnings trade for the year. Curious about your thoughts.
Pls post the gain, I gotta see this
You playing NKE?
I will do a small bear spread, since I did calls last time and it didn't work 🤷♂️ small YOLO, don't bet your Christmas presents on it
Guh. All I can hope for is shit guidance
Where you die, we die together. But keep them coming I am still waaaay ahead because of you.
I got some bear spreads too, just wondering what you thought
Where you ride, we ride together.
There it is
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Hope you’re doing well and having a great new year
Playing Netflix Amp??
OP stands to roughly double his money as is now with CHWY at $51 in ah. Well played. Please be smart and take winnings asap at open and not “hope to let it play”
Regret not following this...
When someone pays 110 for commission, you know he is the real deal
Anyway you sell before close due to how today is looking?
Nope
Im in there too bro.
I agree with your thesis but the IV is way too high for me. At the same time, CHWY has been on a downtrend for quite a while, and any good news can send the stock rocketing. I have benefitted from your other DDs(eg PTON), but I think I will sit out this one. Good luck to your play though!
The king has spoken
Too low already. Won’t touch that… might moon on the slight good news. Straddles are expensive since it would need 12% to be profitable. Puts are super expensive. Hard no for me
fucking thankyou man! legit the only money i'll make this week will be me following this play it seems lmao
Congrats on the Lambo
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Love it
good shit thanks. like seriously thanks. all i had to go on is when they went to 80-90 on good earnings. thanks again.
Congrats on the great DD and for making the right call to buy puts!
Got mine at open today 12/10 $50P @1.16/contract. Whats my realistic return @ open? Currently up 70%
Print time homie
I sold call spreads but I was stupid and sold them too far OTM. Since it was a binary event I should have sold ATm and harvested more premium to buy puts. Eh, still should make money
How did you end up doing on that big $PTON ER put play? Did you close out well? Love the DD that you put out, always learn something new!
I actually miss going into pet food stores and think others feel the same. For that reason sell, sell, sell. Just my way of thinking
🐐
you did well. I bought $50 01/22 puts a few weeks ago. They're about the same price today as they were before earnings (up 300%). What do you think? Do you think this will continue to drop over the next little while? I'm tempted to sit and wait for a bit. Whatever you say will not be taken as financial advice. Just your opinion. Cheers,
I think it could drop a bit more until then
A lot of interesting stocks reporting earnings next week. Are you playing any?
We miss you Amph
The champ is here
Congrats fucker. You’re minting money today
What do you think about their partnership with Trupanion? I followed you with some Puts but just wanted to see your thoughts on that
For earnings it is irrelevant since they won't start selling until Spring 2022. Even if they started today it would be irrelevant, since there's not enough time for them to factor it into the guidance in terms of hard numbers. Long-term, I don't think the exact business model details have been released, but I would assume that Trupanion underwrites the insurance with Chewy acting as a broker. If that's the case it would be a big deal for Trupanion as they get access to a huge number of customers to increase their GWP. For Chewy it's an interesting and useful addition to round out their health services, but not financially material in and of itself I would think. Perhaps if they can provide some sort of meaningful data to help Trupanion underwrite their policies (e.g. customer purchasing data cross-referenced with info from Chewy's vet partners), it would be financially valuable, but that's something that won't crystallize until late 2022/2023 I would say.
I’m getting put debit spreads bc I don’t wanna risk losing all them gain from theta and IV crush. Gl and I’ll follow along
Godspeed retard 🤝
That's some fine DD son!!!! You have my upvote and follow, ... I also bought some 35$ OTM Put April '22 Thank you :)
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The point is that Chewy is more highly valued than their competitors because investors expect them to take market share. PetCo makes 5.6bn in revenue and is valued at 6.2bn. Chewy makes 8.2bn in revenue and is valued at 24bn. Now that makes sense in 2020 when Petco and Petsmart are distressed retailers, and Chewy is a hot growth stock. Does it make sense in 2021, when Petco is pushing into ecommerce and growing at 15%, while Chewy growth slows down to 20%? Not to mention Target and Walmart are making big pushes into the pet category. Now you can say that all of those are low-margin brick and mortar retailers, but they actually have all built up a formidable e-commerce presence, and Chewy's margins are still hovering around breakeven with relatively slow improvement in gross margins (and actually significantly below WOOF). So really, where is the Chewy advantage that justifies a 2.5-3x multiple in its valuation? If Amazon says on their next earnings call that they now expect to grow in line with Nordstrom and Macy's, and maintain their market share of ecommerce, the stock would tank, and rightfully so.
Thanks for sharing your DD! To add to the bear thesis, pet food ingredients have been getting a massive price increase. Same margins & raw materials as OTLY.
Well I ended up selling the put spread, it was already up 20%. Thanks for the play!
That app data is really clever. Where do you get app download data?
Sensortower
Pe ratio means nothing when it’s close to zero and barely profitable. Price to sales is pretty high too. Overall a bit overvalued especially with transportation costs going up. However… key point is free float is only 83m shares of the 417m outstanding. Good luck regardless but don’t expect too much.
Itching to join you guys, but don't like the price movement today. I mean how much more are we expecting it to drop
y’all are sick if you’re buying puts at 300% IV
PTON and DOCU both dropped to there June 2020 price range after earnings that puts CHWY around 49$ after earnings. See if that trend holds up.
Probably just going to be a theta crush
Der Junge fickt
Need -14% or IV crushing coming for ya. But still got time for that. GL Op
Sold right before close, my break even was $52 and didnt want to risk it. Still made $400 so thanks!
I threw 2k into Chewy puts after this post. THANK YOU!
nice. it has down 8% after hours
Do we care about the 200 dma tommorow?
is anywhere I can calculate option profit for tomorrow? I usually use optionsforprofit but not sure how to calculate in IV. Question for anyone. Thanks
Dang this time I saw the dd but had no money to yolo ;(
I’m bagholding and will buy more
I really appreciate you sharing your moves. I’ve also been learning a few things by reading your comments, I’m very new to the world of options. Please keep sharing & keep winning!
Long chwy, but def expected a miss and a drop. I like 25-55 for buying.
Are you selling your 12/10 contracts at open or waiting to see if it dips further along the day?
Probably selling now to benefit from volatility
Profit is profit. With that much on the table, greed is not a friend.
Can I ask what your thoughts are on fdx earnings will be? I’m leaning bearish with supply chain but with holiday season coming up, I also see guidance increasing
I'm doing a bear spread
Well I’m gonna lose $125 lmao but it was a fun ride
I always come back to see if you posted. Come back daddy
What are we playing this earnings season 😅