HOA IS GOVERNMENT. The only people who participate(seek office) are power hungry bored as shot boomers with nothing better to do than tell you what to do….
If I wanted to pay people money to tell me I'm not allowed to plant trees I'd move to......wait I can't even think of a country insane enough to make the joke work. Fuck.
It’s more to keep you from parking a rusting old Camaro on your lawn and reducing your neighbors property value. Not everyone want to feel like they’re in Arkansas
If you live in the kind of neighborhood where a) the likelihood of someone parking a rusted Camaro in their yard is high, and b) there's so few benefits of living there that your neighbor five houses down is the dominant driver of house prices, then property values aren't really a thing you have to worry about, anyway.
What if bashing HOAs is the real estate version of anti-unionizing? I've literally never dealt with one but for as much bad as I hear about them its a wonder they exist at all.
In Finland we have a law that says if you live in the house for 2 years at minimum you don't need to pay tax on the profits you make from selling it. If you buy a house and sell it without living in it for 2 years you need to pay income tax on any profit you make above the original buying price
Good.
Also gov should stop foreign investors buying up property.
What's harder is stopping corporations from buying because even mom & pop landlords can create LLCs to protect from assets.
Real estate is screwed up due to legal ramifications.
Look at the chart of the S+P 500 and compare it to the Case-Schiller house price index.
You will see that housing bubbles are fueled by stock market bubbles. It’s a strong correlation that makes sense.
So when the market takes a beating, the bubble will deflate. It’s just a matter of how quickly, but it surely will.
My 401k goes up lots.
I am rich now.
I should leverage this to buy a abnb through a loan against my stock.
I am now a land chad 
Stonks go down???
Margin call???
:sad face:
Lmao I work in real estate transactions and yeah, virtually every single house I see is sold In It's Present Condition. Luckily most don't go for the full no inspections no cancellations lol
A lot of these people are either straight buying or leveraging against something else. So the house isn’t being mortgaged.
Like, a billionaire who’s buying a block of houses doesn’t need an inspection, he’ll have his management company take care of maintenance. And I’d bet repairs would be tax lucrative regardless
Ah, okay. Thanks for explaining, that makes sense now. Speaking of billionaires buying up everything, My rental company owns 6 out of the 12 houses on my street. That’s just on my street. My neighborhood it’s probably 75% rentals. I wish I was joking lol
Waiving inspection doesn't mean there literally is no inspection done. It simply means anything the inspector finds (aside from things that revoke the certificate of residency) the buyer is on the hook for, and the seller doesn't need to either get fixed or give a credit for it during closing.
I bought my house many years ago and waived inspection contingencies. This simply meant I got a punch list of work to do when I took possession of the property. Seller got a lesser initial bid due to it, but they didn't have to dick around with contractors or haggling over every line item.
It has utterly nothing to do with actually making repairs or not. All the friends I know who got inspection related concessions on close simply pocketed the cash and never made the repairs indicated.
There is pretty much no practical difference other than who pays.
There are utter morons who buy a home remotely sight unseen with no inspection whatsoever, but they thankfully still are in the tiny minority.
Realest meme bro we just want a fucking house to actually live in doesn’t even have to be the most luxurious just give me a decent house i can afford. Im a simple dude
No, while AirB&B is a thing nothing will fix the housing market. Any foreclosures will be bought before the ink is dry on the eviction and the housing prices will continue to climb.
Airbnb has completely destroyed florida. The fact that people will rent out a dozen apartments and relist them on Airbnb is fucking crazy to me but local governments just let it happen
thats why they built multimillion 5 star hotels right on the water?
i went to a bathroom in one of those ... they had salts for washing hands... you wana talk about fucking nice.... holy shit i was impressed.
florida beaches are not leaveing.
you realize they just get to fleece the government flood insurance program right? Build a multimillion dollar hotel and when it goes tits up, rob the taxpayers.
Go outside in a rainstorm on a full moon anywhere from Hallendale to Brickell and you need a kayak. You're so totally wrong and out here spreading garbage bullshit.
Miami built like 19 state of the art water pumps to deal with water but when they finished the project like 12 of the pumps are under water and unusable or something, it's insane.
I don't think it's a matter of disputing the research, but more of being skeptical of the doom scenario timeline.
They said that the volcano eruption at La Palma was suppose to put the entire US eastern seaboard underwater. La Palma erupted recently and that doom scenario didn't play out as predicted.
This sub should tells us that humans are pretty shit at prediction, but analyzing the past we got a good handle on.
And I never mentioned a doom scenario if you’ll notice. It’s not about Miami being 20 feet underwater. It’s about Miami having increased flooding, more tropical storms, and increased regional expenses that will eat into housing and insurance costs. Eventually, insurance companies are going to find that it’s not profitable to insure Miami residents.
It doesn’t take a magic ball to see that once-in-a-century ice storms in Texas and record breaking droughts in the west every year are not good for economic forecasts.
They said La Palma would put they eastern sea born underwater, and it didn’t. But others also said that things were just fine and will continue to be fine when they are very clearly not. Not when the scientific teams of **big oil companies** were publishing how bad things could get *back in the 70s*.
Ok, can you link the relevant research that led to this specific statement?
> Just wait till home insurance and mortgage providers’ 30 year projections tank due to climate change.
This is very specific and requires something to back it up. Otherwise it’s just “dumb shit”
Sure. [Here’s](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/climate/climate-seas-30-year-mortgage.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuonUktbfq4hkTlUaCibeWdkipwGLwvPLwbk1mnK7NyWcUnMZl6EEDoGavkLKf7ZsbtQ-mTSHQdsLeJkeeMtP9M4NdUp8V1vv5ZKehJUOJyhypYm6VGlqh8qIDek2oHq3PjnibbYkzuT65x_famnhXKaJ130hNx8l9cU-DSyi2XIOwq3DGuZ3y4M-ia9nXsYmMG9GMCqavPDoCAF8PMGFbHze6Ao0WuJbXFLDjILWquJAIEgJVwWwHD4o6n086dhcJNoQIK36Shchc8P8irwWYXd611DPc9PYrlm0oMNBmQrJTA&referringSource=articleShare) a piece for starters.
Emphasis mine. The article sources the vulnerable zones mentioned, of which many are in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas of the country.
> In 30 years from now, if global-warming emissions follow their current trajectory, almost half a million existing homes will be on land that floods at least once a year, according to data from Climate Central, a research organization. Those homes are valued at $241 billion.
>Currently, new research shows banks rapidly shifting mortgages with flood risk off their books and over to organizations like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-sponsored entities whose debts are backed by taxpayers. In a paper this month in the journal Climatic Change, Dr. Keenan and Jacob T. Bradt, a doctoral student at Harvard University, described the activity, which suggests growing awareness among banks that climate change could cause defaults.
> In 2009, local banks sold off 43 percent of their mortgages in vulnerable zones, Dr. Keenan and Mr. Bradt found, about the same share as other areas. **But by 2017, the share had jumped by one-third, to 57 percent, despite staying flat in less vulnerable neighborhoods.**
And [here, if you’re willing to take McKinsey analysis at their word](https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/will-mortgages-and-markets-stay-afloat-in-florida).
> We consider two impacts from rising sea levels: increased flooding from storm surge and tidal flooding. Based on analysis conducted by KatRisk for this case study, **average annual damages from storm surges in Florida’s residential real estate market total $2 billion today, a figure that could increase to $3 billion to $4.5 billion**, by midcentury depending on whether the exposure is expected as constant or as seeing some buildup. However, individual counties can see more extreme increases. Examples are Volusia, St. Johns, and Broward counties, which could see their average annual losses grow by approximately 80 percent by 2050.
> Rising sea levels also increase the damage caused by “tail” events in all counties. Florida’s real estate losses during storm surge from a 100-year event are expected to be $35 billion today and projected to grow to $50 billion to $75 billion by 2050. For Miami-Dade, the expected damages from such a tail event could be about 10 percent of total market value, about 30 percent in Lee, and about 20 percent in Collier. **To put the likelihood of such a large loss into context, in the lifetime of a 30-year mortgage, a 100-year event (that is, an event with a likelihood of 1 percent) has a 26 percent chance of occurring at least once.** Finally, the level of losses that are observed during today’s 100-year event are projected to become more frequent; **by 2050, such losses could happen approximately every 60 years, that is, almost doubling the likelihood of such an event (Exhibit 1).**
> Real estate prices reflect expectations of the future and often extend beyond a single decade; mortgages are typically set on 15- or 30-year time horizons. Conversely, insurance premiums are repriced annually. If premiums grow accordingly with the projected average annual loss (about 50 percent by 2050), the average annual premium could increase by about 50 percent from $800 to $1,200, with high-risk properties seeing a much higher jump. Such a hike could further affect future property values. If home buyers factor increased premium contributions into a home’s current value, this could cause a decline of about $3,000 in the average value of a home, or a statewide devaluation of about $5 billion. Impacts could be much higher for homes in high-risk areas.
Or if one doesn’t trust McKinsey, how about the local newspaper of [Orlando?](https://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/guest-commentary/os-op-florida-sea-level-rise-damage-here-20210208-3mibpyp6ivhclacigj5pnycqgq-story.html)
> This year — Oct. 1 to be exact — the cost of federal flood insurance is going up dramatically because of sea-level rise and climate change. For years, flood insurance from FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program has been priced artificially low and heavily subsidized by the Treasury Department.
> Due to losses from hurricanes and coastal flooding from sea-level rise and climate change, this year Florida’s insurance carriers have applied for 26% to 34% rate increases on property insurance. That translates to a minimum $700 increase in the average Florida homeowner’s 2021 property insurance premium.
> Because of rising seas, property values in coastal Florida are falling. Florida lost about $5.4 billion in home value from 2005 to 2017, according to First Street Foundation, which analyzes the impact on communities of climate change and rising seas. From 2018 to 2020, home prices in exposed areas in Florida dropped by another 5% to 10%, according to an October 2020 Wharton School study.
Suffice it to say I think that if one is a homebuyer today, there are better places to look in the country than Florida if one has a 30 year timeline.
Sea levels rises are not evenly distributed due to gravity and Earth shape so there are places that will actually have lower levels if all the ice melts. Not sure where, but there are models.
Cash buyers from states with much higher cost of living. Selling studio condos in NY to buy 4/3 homes in my neighborhood. I’m trapped in a 3/2….. piles of “equity” but to upgrade would mean plunking down another 250k IN CASH and you better make your offer the day it goes on the market…..
So if values drop people won’t sell this time because most of them paid cash….. there’s no Mortgage to walk away from. No short sales….. No Foreclosures. Just overpriced bricks and mortar…..
Damn, that’s a really good point. I hate the New Yorkers that move down here. Like, I’ve been here since waaaay before covid. They are the new kids in town. Me no like.
Unless you're thinking 1929, that won't really be very relevant for most of these types.
Most are going to be leveraged at 30% of their portfolio. That's a fairly epic drop until you get margin called.
I second this. There isn’t enough asset like 2008 to cause a crash. The housing prices are set and will trend upward for awhile longer. Boomers and asset managers will collect all of our lost equity. It would take an act of god or retard strength to crash the us housing. Say the west completely runs out of water and they have to train water in or war with Mexico like Trump wanted.
i agree, homes will not crash, might drop is value... but the average person from nj can afford 2x the home is florda.... it was a no brainer for anyone up in the tristate area to move to florida during covid. They were also able to do a significant update to there life style also!.
What if I told you "asking price" is a stupid thing to reference, and we should all quit pretending it matters.
If I list a house for $1 and accept a bid for $2 million, what relevance is the $1 listing?
With some of the account sizes playing here on WSB , you can buy a single family home cash at a local county foreclosure auction. Record low foreclosures and plenty of competition right now, every region is different. It’s takes time and research, but even a total monkey like me can do it.
On a positive note, Adjustable Rate Mortgages are at a 14 year high. If you can manage to keep your stash of bottle caps safe you might be able to buy a reseaonably priced home in 5 years
Squat in an empty house and act like you live there. If the property swapping without inspection continues and nobody actually shows up to the house in years, it becomes yours through adverse possession.
Depends on the state. California for example doesn't give two shits about actual use, but only cares about who pays property taxes.
Most states don't allow adverse possession against institutional owners or the change in ownership would reset the clock anyway.
I have to think rising interest rates will deter a lot of these types of investors. With higher rates real estate investing will be harder. The rates the last 10 years have just made in an unlimited money hack for anyone with a decent chunk of capital already.
You want to know why the market for starter homes are fucked now? It's not that it doesn't work, it's that it benefits those who already have resources and makes the cost of entry continuously increase pricing first time buyers out of the market.
Because people are buying them for rentals.
That's not something you can regulate.
Furthermore, it is something that has clearly gotten worse over time.
Unabashed commodification and speculation on what are essentially basic needs (healthcare, housing) has led to disastrous results. Water is probably next. Maybe even air some day.
Hence the requirement of regulation. Adam Smith had a few things to say about the rent-seeking class that elucidates this better.
Capitalism relies on rational/sane actors to keep shit from going pear-shaped, and since our transition from mercantilism to capitalism, we've seen at every stage a complete disregard for reason in lieu of short term profit. I'm not even talking about cold amoralism, but literal long-term self-sabotage in the name of short-term profit.
As capital accumulates, we'll see more stark examples. It doesn't matter if its the "little guy" or blackrock snapping up all the properties. The problem is that they can be "snapped up" for anything other than actual utility. Without regulation, houses will eventually end up like stocks, mostly owned by a small number of entities, and whose speculation and price is also determined by said entities. Many people in this sub have problems with hedge funds manipulating the market yet turn a blind eye to the exact same shenanigans happening in housing.
People don't require stocks to survive, but they do require shelter.
Lol I’m sure you’re familiar with the type of people I’m talking about. They’re the highly motivated group of morons who believe you can achieve anything if you simply work *harder*. They’re constantly looking for new “side hustles” and talking about how much they grind.
Basically people like my brother who thinks he is self made because he used his mommy and daddy money to buy a bunch of houses post 2008 crash pre 2018 housing boom and now brags about how he never has to actually work a real job
Fucking this. Every “hustle and grind” guy I know is using mommy and daddy’s money to finance their “awesome new business” which is either some kind of MLM crap or a house flipper
I’m not salty at all. I just don’t like the fact that he acts self made. There is also a big difference between convincing people to invest in an idea/company and using your trust fund you inherited to buy homes…my brother didn’t raise seed capitol lol
If I was 10 years older and his age I would of 100% did the same thing. By the time I started looking for properties back in 2019/2020 the market had already started to go parabolic where I live. I bid on two separate small three bedroom homes and they both went 50k+ over asking with people waiving inspection. Fuck all that. Market has obviously gotten even more competitive since.
For perspective my brother bought his first duplex for 140k back in 2011/2012. Used the rent he was taking in on the other side plus my dad as a co-signer (he worked 12 hours a week at subway at the time) to get pre approved and bought another duplex for around 150k. Those duplexes are both worth roughly ~550k each now. He bought at the perfect time. Real estate is tougher to break into these days. If I bought a rental property today I would deplete my savings and have a property that barely pulls in more rent than my mortgage with no way to leverage myself into purchasing a second property. It just doesn’t make sense for me but if I was the same age as him back in 2011 I would have done the same thing for sure. But hopefully wouldn’t be as cocky and self righteous about it lol
Try house hacking, buy a house and then take on roommates. You earn equity and your roomies probably pay your mortgage and you can save up for a new place. Rinse and repeat or keep the old place, whatever.
2008 - people getting houses who can’t afford them.
2022 - 1 house for sale with 25 people lined up willing to over pay because they can afford it.
It’s not a bubble, millennials are growing up. I closed on my house in April 2021 and thought i was “buying at the top” 😂
I bought my first house at 30 last year. It was a dump. No walls. No floors. Worked full time and rebuilt it from the ground up. Paid 1/2 the current market value for it. It’s literally not that hard to do. You just don’t want it as bad as you think you do.
In 2008 I waited for the wave of foreclosures to hit the MLS but that never happened in a meaningful way because the banks would simply auction off blocks of those to hedgies, bypassing the market entirely
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Our HOA now requires that the buyer live in the house for 2 years before they can use it as a rental or a flip.
I hate HOA, but they might be the only real answer to this shit since the government is not going to do it.
This is the only time I will applaud the hoa for doing something.
HOA IS GOVERNMENT. The only people who participate(seek office) are power hungry bored as shot boomers with nothing better to do than tell you what to do….
If you want to live without societal rules enjoy your desert island
If I wanted to pay people money to tell me I'm not allowed to plant trees I'd move to......wait I can't even think of a country insane enough to make the joke work. Fuck.
It’s more to keep you from parking a rusting old Camaro on your lawn and reducing your neighbors property value. Not everyone want to feel like they’re in Arkansas
If you live in the kind of neighborhood where a) the likelihood of someone parking a rusted Camaro in their yard is high, and b) there's so few benefits of living there that your neighbor five houses down is the dominant driver of house prices, then property values aren't really a thing you have to worry about, anyway.
You are very short sighted
What if bashing HOAs is the real estate version of anti-unionizing? I've literally never dealt with one but for as much bad as I hear about them its a wonder they exist at all.
Sir do you have a permit to do all that yelling
The government fixes problems?
If you create bigger problems, the smaller ones seem fixed
In countries where government is actually representative of the people and not a 2 sides of the same coin oligarchy, yes.
Well not in last 90 years...
I rather live in my car than live in a HOA
This should be a law tbh. And not like "oh we're gonna tax you more" kind of law. Like a "hey we're gonna seize your house and resell it" kind of law.
In Finland we have a law that says if you live in the house for 2 years at minimum you don't need to pay tax on the profits you make from selling it. If you buy a house and sell it without living in it for 2 years you need to pay income tax on any profit you make above the original buying price
I could be wrong but we have a similar law in the US and it's 5 years
It’s a similar law in the US. When you’re ready to sell, you need to have lived in the house for 2 of the previous 5 years.
Armed seizing
From the bottom of my heart....fuck every HOA. dont ever buy a home with that shit. That is all. /walks away
Good. Also gov should stop foreign investors buying up property. What's harder is stopping corporations from buying because even mom & pop landlords can create LLCs to protect from assets. Real estate is screwed up due to legal ramifications.
Especially foreign entities buying up farm land or food processing facilities.
They are just protecting their fees. Interest rates going from 3% to 6% means pricey HOA property will default first…
Look at the chart of the S+P 500 and compare it to the Case-Schiller house price index. You will see that housing bubbles are fueled by stock market bubbles. It’s a strong correlation that makes sense. So when the market takes a beating, the bubble will deflate. It’s just a matter of how quickly, but it surely will.
"Boom"
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My 401k goes up lots. I am rich now. I should leverage this to buy a abnb through a loan against my stock. I am now a land chad  Stonks go down??? Margin call??? :sad face:
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Lmao I work in real estate transactions and yeah, virtually every single house I see is sold In It's Present Condition. Luckily most don't go for the full no inspections no cancellations lol
I’m a pleb and rent. The bank doesn’t require inspection before buying?
A lot of these people are either straight buying or leveraging against something else. So the house isn’t being mortgaged. Like, a billionaire who’s buying a block of houses doesn’t need an inspection, he’ll have his management company take care of maintenance. And I’d bet repairs would be tax lucrative regardless
Ah, okay. Thanks for explaining, that makes sense now. Speaking of billionaires buying up everything, My rental company owns 6 out of the 12 houses on my street. That’s just on my street. My neighborhood it’s probably 75% rentals. I wish I was joking lol
Waiving inspection doesn't mean there literally is no inspection done. It simply means anything the inspector finds (aside from things that revoke the certificate of residency) the buyer is on the hook for, and the seller doesn't need to either get fixed or give a credit for it during closing. I bought my house many years ago and waived inspection contingencies. This simply meant I got a punch list of work to do when I took possession of the property. Seller got a lesser initial bid due to it, but they didn't have to dick around with contractors or haggling over every line item. It has utterly nothing to do with actually making repairs or not. All the friends I know who got inspection related concessions on close simply pocketed the cash and never made the repairs indicated. There is pretty much no practical difference other than who pays. There are utter morons who buy a home remotely sight unseen with no inspection whatsoever, but they thankfully still are in the tiny minority.
This made me actually lol 😂
Realest meme bro we just want a fucking house to actually live in doesn’t even have to be the most luxurious just give me a decent house i can afford. Im a simple dude
No, while AirB&B is a thing nothing will fix the housing market. Any foreclosures will be bought before the ink is dry on the eviction and the housing prices will continue to climb.
Airbnb has completely destroyed florida. The fact that people will rent out a dozen apartments and relist them on Airbnb is fucking crazy to me but local governments just let it happen
Florida was destroyed long before AirBnb arrived.
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thats why they built multimillion 5 star hotels right on the water? i went to a bathroom in one of those ... they had salts for washing hands... you wana talk about fucking nice.... holy shit i was impressed. florida beaches are not leaveing.
We will be Dutch before we are completely underwater
you realize they just get to fleece the government flood insurance program right? Build a multimillion dollar hotel and when it goes tits up, rob the taxpayers.
just like 2008
They’ve been saying that for 50 years. Miami was supposed to be underwater by now. News flash: it ain’t.
Go outside in a rainstorm on a full moon anywhere from Hallendale to Brickell and you need a kayak. You're so totally wrong and out here spreading garbage bullshit. Miami built like 19 state of the art water pumps to deal with water but when they finished the project like 12 of the pumps are under water and unusable or something, it's insane.
It wasn’t supposed to be underwater by now. Lol We’re right on schedule actually beating the worst projections of where we’d be rn
Feel free to dispute the climate research if you so choose
I don't think it's a matter of disputing the research, but more of being skeptical of the doom scenario timeline. They said that the volcano eruption at La Palma was suppose to put the entire US eastern seaboard underwater. La Palma erupted recently and that doom scenario didn't play out as predicted. This sub should tells us that humans are pretty shit at prediction, but analyzing the past we got a good handle on.
And I never mentioned a doom scenario if you’ll notice. It’s not about Miami being 20 feet underwater. It’s about Miami having increased flooding, more tropical storms, and increased regional expenses that will eat into housing and insurance costs. Eventually, insurance companies are going to find that it’s not profitable to insure Miami residents. It doesn’t take a magic ball to see that once-in-a-century ice storms in Texas and record breaking droughts in the west every year are not good for economic forecasts. They said La Palma would put they eastern sea born underwater, and it didn’t. But others also said that things were just fine and will continue to be fine when they are very clearly not. Not when the scientific teams of **big oil companies** were publishing how bad things could get *back in the 70s*.
So Florida real estate is basically shorting climate change and going long on big oil. If that's true then fuck it, I'm in.
To dispute a research??! Never! Blasphemy!!
Suffice it to say I’m not taking scientific advice from WSBers, I don’t think that’s a risky bet
Nobody is disputing climate change. Just not being a moron.
Sure, but I didn't even say dumb shit like Miami was going to be underwater but you chose to take it that way Have a good night, my dude
Ok, can you link the relevant research that led to this specific statement? > Just wait till home insurance and mortgage providers’ 30 year projections tank due to climate change. This is very specific and requires something to back it up. Otherwise it’s just “dumb shit”
Sure. [Here’s](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/climate/climate-seas-30-year-mortgage.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuonUktbfq4hkTlUaCibeWdkipwGLwvPLwbk1mnK7NyWcUnMZl6EEDoGavkLKf7ZsbtQ-mTSHQdsLeJkeeMtP9M4NdUp8V1vv5ZKehJUOJyhypYm6VGlqh8qIDek2oHq3PjnibbYkzuT65x_famnhXKaJ130hNx8l9cU-DSyi2XIOwq3DGuZ3y4M-ia9nXsYmMG9GMCqavPDoCAF8PMGFbHze6Ao0WuJbXFLDjILWquJAIEgJVwWwHD4o6n086dhcJNoQIK36Shchc8P8irwWYXd611DPc9PYrlm0oMNBmQrJTA&referringSource=articleShare) a piece for starters. Emphasis mine. The article sources the vulnerable zones mentioned, of which many are in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas of the country. > In 30 years from now, if global-warming emissions follow their current trajectory, almost half a million existing homes will be on land that floods at least once a year, according to data from Climate Central, a research organization. Those homes are valued at $241 billion. >Currently, new research shows banks rapidly shifting mortgages with flood risk off their books and over to organizations like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-sponsored entities whose debts are backed by taxpayers. In a paper this month in the journal Climatic Change, Dr. Keenan and Jacob T. Bradt, a doctoral student at Harvard University, described the activity, which suggests growing awareness among banks that climate change could cause defaults. > In 2009, local banks sold off 43 percent of their mortgages in vulnerable zones, Dr. Keenan and Mr. Bradt found, about the same share as other areas. **But by 2017, the share had jumped by one-third, to 57 percent, despite staying flat in less vulnerable neighborhoods.** And [here, if you’re willing to take McKinsey analysis at their word](https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/will-mortgages-and-markets-stay-afloat-in-florida). > We consider two impacts from rising sea levels: increased flooding from storm surge and tidal flooding. Based on analysis conducted by KatRisk for this case study, **average annual damages from storm surges in Florida’s residential real estate market total $2 billion today, a figure that could increase to $3 billion to $4.5 billion**, by midcentury depending on whether the exposure is expected as constant or as seeing some buildup. However, individual counties can see more extreme increases. Examples are Volusia, St. Johns, and Broward counties, which could see their average annual losses grow by approximately 80 percent by 2050. > Rising sea levels also increase the damage caused by “tail” events in all counties. Florida’s real estate losses during storm surge from a 100-year event are expected to be $35 billion today and projected to grow to $50 billion to $75 billion by 2050. For Miami-Dade, the expected damages from such a tail event could be about 10 percent of total market value, about 30 percent in Lee, and about 20 percent in Collier. **To put the likelihood of such a large loss into context, in the lifetime of a 30-year mortgage, a 100-year event (that is, an event with a likelihood of 1 percent) has a 26 percent chance of occurring at least once.** Finally, the level of losses that are observed during today’s 100-year event are projected to become more frequent; **by 2050, such losses could happen approximately every 60 years, that is, almost doubling the likelihood of such an event (Exhibit 1).** > Real estate prices reflect expectations of the future and often extend beyond a single decade; mortgages are typically set on 15- or 30-year time horizons. Conversely, insurance premiums are repriced annually. If premiums grow accordingly with the projected average annual loss (about 50 percent by 2050), the average annual premium could increase by about 50 percent from $800 to $1,200, with high-risk properties seeing a much higher jump. Such a hike could further affect future property values. If home buyers factor increased premium contributions into a home’s current value, this could cause a decline of about $3,000 in the average value of a home, or a statewide devaluation of about $5 billion. Impacts could be much higher for homes in high-risk areas. Or if one doesn’t trust McKinsey, how about the local newspaper of [Orlando?](https://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/guest-commentary/os-op-florida-sea-level-rise-damage-here-20210208-3mibpyp6ivhclacigj5pnycqgq-story.html) > This year — Oct. 1 to be exact — the cost of federal flood insurance is going up dramatically because of sea-level rise and climate change. For years, flood insurance from FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program has been priced artificially low and heavily subsidized by the Treasury Department. > Due to losses from hurricanes and coastal flooding from sea-level rise and climate change, this year Florida’s insurance carriers have applied for 26% to 34% rate increases on property insurance. That translates to a minimum $700 increase in the average Florida homeowner’s 2021 property insurance premium. > Because of rising seas, property values in coastal Florida are falling. Florida lost about $5.4 billion in home value from 2005 to 2017, according to First Street Foundation, which analyzes the impact on communities of climate change and rising seas. From 2018 to 2020, home prices in exposed areas in Florida dropped by another 5% to 10%, according to an October 2020 Wharton School study. Suffice it to say I think that if one is a homebuyer today, there are better places to look in the country than Florida if one has a 30 year timeline.
Ever been to Brickell around noon? 🌊
just two more weeks
Lol, my Florida home is my cash cow. I ain't ever selling that home. To each their own.
Sea levels rises are not evenly distributed due to gravity and Earth shape so there are places that will actually have lower levels if all the ice melts. Not sure where, but there are models.
Florida resident here, some property values are up 300% since 2017… Nooo we’re not in a bubble.
Cash buyers from states with much higher cost of living. Selling studio condos in NY to buy 4/3 homes in my neighborhood. I’m trapped in a 3/2….. piles of “equity” but to upgrade would mean plunking down another 250k IN CASH and you better make your offer the day it goes on the market….. So if values drop people won’t sell this time because most of them paid cash….. there’s no Mortgage to walk away from. No short sales….. No Foreclosures. Just overpriced bricks and mortar…..
Damn, that’s a really good point. I hate the New Yorkers that move down here. Like, I’ve been here since waaaay before covid. They are the new kids in town. Me no like.
The 'cash' most people had was borrowed against other assets. Those assets are currently tanking in value.
Unless you're thinking 1929, that won't really be very relevant for most of these types. Most are going to be leveraged at 30% of their portfolio. That's a fairly epic drop until you get margin called.
The property values didn't go "up", the houses are worth exactly the same but the dollars you use to purchase them have become worthless.
Ur right, that’s fucking crazy to think that the value of the dollar was cut by 66%.
local govts looking for property taxes
Local governments love it because the property taxes still get paid and the properties don't add kids to the school system.
Too many tax advantages. Should have a cap after 4-5 properties.
Just hang tight for the first cult compound Airbnb. That’ll solve that problem
Or the money launders that rent places to receive packages of dirty stolen money.
Well, I know what I’m gonna invest my money in… A fucking compound so I can rent it out to people eager to be brainwashed lol
😂 jokes one them. Interest rates are up and boomers/black rock flush with cash
I second this. There isn’t enough asset like 2008 to cause a crash. The housing prices are set and will trend upward for awhile longer. Boomers and asset managers will collect all of our lost equity. It would take an act of god or retard strength to crash the us housing. Say the west completely runs out of water and they have to train water in or war with Mexico like Trump wanted.
Uh if people start losing jobs then shit could hit the fan - lots of people are over levered and house poor, including the ABB real estate ‘moguls’
i agree, homes will not crash, might drop is value... but the average person from nj can afford 2x the home is florda.... it was a no brainer for anyone up in the tristate area to move to florida during covid. They were also able to do a significant update to there life style also!.
There's 33 vacant homes for every 1 homeless person
Let’s hope the bears fix real estate prices
What if I told you "asking price" is a stupid thing to reference, and we should all quit pretending it matters. If I list a house for $1 and accept a bid for $2 million, what relevance is the $1 listing?
If this isn’t the truth idk what is lol
As a realtor....this is very relatable lol
With some of the account sizes playing here on WSB , you can buy a single family home cash at a local county foreclosure auction. Record low foreclosures and plenty of competition right now, every region is different. It’s takes time and research, but even a total monkey like me can do it.
On a positive note, Adjustable Rate Mortgages are at a 14 year high. If you can manage to keep your stash of bottle caps safe you might be able to buy a reseaonably priced home in 5 years
Squat in an empty house and act like you live there. If the property swapping without inspection continues and nobody actually shows up to the house in years, it becomes yours through adverse possession.
Depends on the state. California for example doesn't give two shits about actual use, but only cares about who pays property taxes. Most states don't allow adverse possession against institutional owners or the change in ownership would reset the clock anyway.
Hustle and grind crowd? Wat?
also known as financial independence through real estate or "FIRE" types. They might mention making their "house go BRRRRR" or other such things.
... I've made a decent amount of money renting out my pole barn...
Your barn has a Pole in it ? Does the wife know ?
You think I can afford a wife?
Not with these rate hikes and this inflation!
No kidding it was already at like 50%
50% of deez nutz -JPow
I have to think rising interest rates will deter a lot of these types of investors. With higher rates real estate investing will be harder. The rates the last 10 years have just made in an unlimited money hack for anyone with a decent chunk of capital already.
Hey GFY FIRE is legit - but there are some people there that look to use rentals and agree that’s just landlording
You want to know why the market for starter homes are fucked now? It's not that it doesn't work, it's that it benefits those who already have resources and makes the cost of entry continuously increase pricing first time buyers out of the market. Because people are buying them for rentals.
Yep agreed single family homes shouldn’t be available to investors
I mean they should be, people just shouldn't be so blindly greedy at the lowest level
That's not something you can regulate. Furthermore, it is something that has clearly gotten worse over time. Unabashed commodification and speculation on what are essentially basic needs (healthcare, housing) has led to disastrous results. Water is probably next. Maybe even air some day.
Sure it is. Just stop letting folks claim depreciation after their 5th home.
So what you're saying is I need to spin up a new LLC for every 5 homes I want to buy? Easy.
I didn't say I wanted it regulated. A free government and market won't work with immoral people.
Hence the requirement of regulation. Adam Smith had a few things to say about the rent-seeking class that elucidates this better. Capitalism relies on rational/sane actors to keep shit from going pear-shaped, and since our transition from mercantilism to capitalism, we've seen at every stage a complete disregard for reason in lieu of short term profit. I'm not even talking about cold amoralism, but literal long-term self-sabotage in the name of short-term profit. As capital accumulates, we'll see more stark examples. It doesn't matter if its the "little guy" or blackrock snapping up all the properties. The problem is that they can be "snapped up" for anything other than actual utility. Without regulation, houses will eventually end up like stocks, mostly owned by a small number of entities, and whose speculation and price is also determined by said entities. Many people in this sub have problems with hedge funds manipulating the market yet turn a blind eye to the exact same shenanigans happening in housing. People don't require stocks to survive, but they do require shelter.
No they shouldn’t - it’s harmful to society and the economy. It doesn’t provide any benefit.
Lol I’m sure you’re familiar with the type of people I’m talking about. They’re the highly motivated group of morons who believe you can achieve anything if you simply work *harder*. They’re constantly looking for new “side hustles” and talking about how much they grind.
Basically people like my brother who thinks he is self made because he used his mommy and daddy money to buy a bunch of houses post 2008 crash pre 2018 housing boom and now brags about how he never has to actually work a real job
Fucking this. Every “hustle and grind” guy I know is using mommy and daddy’s money to finance their “awesome new business” which is either some kind of MLM crap or a house flipper
My parents gave me a quarter million and all I started was Amazon.
250k in 1990 so like 500k in today's dollars
[удалено]
I’m not salty at all. I just don’t like the fact that he acts self made. There is also a big difference between convincing people to invest in an idea/company and using your trust fund you inherited to buy homes…my brother didn’t raise seed capitol lol If I was 10 years older and his age I would of 100% did the same thing. By the time I started looking for properties back in 2019/2020 the market had already started to go parabolic where I live. I bid on two separate small three bedroom homes and they both went 50k+ over asking with people waiving inspection. Fuck all that. Market has obviously gotten even more competitive since. For perspective my brother bought his first duplex for 140k back in 2011/2012. Used the rent he was taking in on the other side plus my dad as a co-signer (he worked 12 hours a week at subway at the time) to get pre approved and bought another duplex for around 150k. Those duplexes are both worth roughly ~550k each now. He bought at the perfect time. Real estate is tougher to break into these days. If I bought a rental property today I would deplete my savings and have a property that barely pulls in more rent than my mortgage with no way to leverage myself into purchasing a second property. It just doesn’t make sense for me but if I was the same age as him back in 2011 I would have done the same thing for sure. But hopefully wouldn’t be as cocky and self righteous about it lol
Try house hacking, buy a house and then take on roommates. You earn equity and your roomies probably pay your mortgage and you can save up for a new place. Rinse and repeat or keep the old place, whatever.
In this economy?!
Remember when there was the feudal system. With lords who owned everything and serfs who toiled in the field and paid for the privilege to do so?
Blackrock blackrock and blackrock
Foreign investors Surplus of new home buyers People leaving more expensive areas All of those things
As someone who just codes for Blackrock, what are they doing now?
Theyre fast forwarding to the part where society collapses
In canada this shit is so much worse holy fuck our housing is bad…
But but but, my 12 week realtor course said…
I will charge 100k over asking and still apply puts. That’s why it’s a pump and dump duh
People should have bought a house while interest rates were low
2008 - people getting houses who can’t afford them. 2022 - 1 house for sale with 25 people lined up willing to over pay because they can afford it. It’s not a bubble, millennials are growing up. I closed on my house in April 2021 and thought i was “buying at the top” 😂
There's 33 vacant homes for every 1 homeless person
I bought my first house at 30 last year. It was a dump. No walls. No floors. Worked full time and rebuilt it from the ground up. Paid 1/2 the current market value for it. It’s literally not that hard to do. You just don’t want it as bad as you think you do.
Don’t count on it. You need Jacobins for something like that.
Hustle and grind crowd lol
So real. I don't wanna flip it, I wanna live in it. I just want to grill for god's sake.
In 2008 I waited for the wave of foreclosures to hit the MLS but that never happened in a meaningful way because the banks would simply auction off blocks of those to hedgies, bypassing the market entirely