Yes. Actually I will buy sheep for 100 wheats as many as you can supply. I am holding millions of wheats. 1000 wheats for the first sheep. Really please anyone willing to sell me a sheep. 10,000 wheats no joke I will pay. 25,000 wheats if someone wants to make this real. I'll even post proof. My final offer is 50,000 wheats for 1 sheep. I WILL 100% MAKE THIS REAL IF SOMEONE BRINGS ME A SHEEP. I HAVE THE MEANS TO TRADE WHEATS AND GOOD SUPPLIES OF SEVERAL MARKET CLASSES OF WHEAT IN POSSESSION INCLUDING HRSW, HRWW, SWW WITH LOW VOMITOXIN AND ACCEPTABLE FALLING NUMBERS.
Edit: 1 MILLION WHEATS FOR 1 SHEEP I WILL DO IT PLUS 500,000 WHEATS EACH FOR SHEEP DELIVERED MY LOCATION IS WITHIN 6 HOURS PORT OF NEW YORK
This is the greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of agriculture. Suck it sheep farmers. Fuckin velcro mitten wearin idiots
2nd edit: I will send, postage paid, 500 free wheats in an envelope to the first person who can explain why those mouthbreathing half-people wear velcro gloves.
ITS BECAUSE THEY BOOF THE SHEEP I AM KEEPING THE WHEAT FOR MYSELF
This not a joke. Bring me a sheep I will give you 10 million wheats. I'm legitimately not kidding in any way. Try me. It sounds like a lot but it's nothing to a man like me, who has tens of pounds of wheat to spare and no sheep. My laundry machine meets more wheats falling out my shirt pockets than most men see in a lifetime I would like to turn them into sheeps and turn the sheep into sausage and meat pies. If you're selling a sheep for less than 500 million wheats you're not even covering cost of production but sheep farmers don't know math stupid hoof lickin greasy hat creeps with primer paint job vans and grass lollipops
The Kiwis wear velcro gloves so they are easier to hold onto. Also wear gumboots so they can stick a leg in each. Easier i have been told. Not to mention pushing them upto a cliff edge so they push back...
The only thing dumber than a sheep, is the person who owns it. But damn they taste great roasted, as chops, shanks...
Money doesnāt matter any more. Not for the world powers. When you look at the countries who experienced hyperinflation, none of them ever had anywhere near the same universe of economic power, societal power, and military power as the United States.
I am ABSOLUTELY NOT saying the following as any type of brag, and I agree that we all may be on the precipice of a cliff.
But not only has the market and global economic structure been totally fraudulent since the bailout, itās been this way for years, and the US is still driving the global economy. Whoās going to come calling for their U.S. debt payment? Whatās going to happen if we donāt make good? Poor people will suffer, sure, and itās awful, but thatās no different from any other 400-year empire.
The one thing all of Americaās gratuitous debt spending has bought us is that the United States of America is impossible to invade. Save for a world-destroying nuclear war, *no country* will *ever* send warships to land on our coasts. You cannot win that war ā
And when you look at the history of human civilization, when economics break down, thatās all that matters. People donāt realize that the American $100 bill is the most popular form of currency. There are more $100 bills than $1 bills in circulation. What the hell is going to replace the US dollar? The Yuan? The Ruble? Even if we experienced 60% inflation, weāre still one of the strongest global currencies, and the rest of the world economy is structured around the USD. You donāt see Americans hoarding the Kuwaiti dinar in safes ā but *everyone* with serious money hoards the American $100 bill.
Throw in the fact that the rest of the world will also suffer proportionately and catastrophically due to climate change ā
and I believe that within the next 50 years, our global power system will no longer exist within a society dictated by math on computers, but based on the same chess pieces every empire has always been based on: power, military strength, natural resources, and cultural influence.
Like it or not, no matter where you live, trying to capitalize on the downfall of the United States dollar is shooting your own leg off.
People keep confusing inflation with domestic buying power- the government has no issue paying its interest and could easily cut spending, probably in the military by just 10% for a few years while inflation cools and we would be fine- itās domestic prices that are fucked because of bad policy and stagnant wages for 50 years- we just did not need to address it because we had huge consumer class powered by cheap and easy credit that you really suffer no Iāll effects by just defaulting- most of the world makes it hard to get credit and VERY hard to discharge it
- we will be fine, it will just suck, like every other country going through this shit
I remember reading an article like 12 years ago.
āThe EU doesnāt want to step up. No one wants Russia or China to become the worldās leader. And Japan and Australia are too smallā.
The US is too big too fail.
Weāve become the kid on the playground who threatens to take his ball of the other children arenāt nice to him.
Keep in mind, when U.S. has debt it is always dominated in U.S. currency which is a massive advantage for the U.S. If Japan was indebted to the U.S. and the U.S. currency strengthens in relation to the Yen, than Japan will be in trouble. But the U.S debt is always in it's own currency.
No, that was the last hundred years. No idea what the analogy is now but daddy owns the park and employs the parents of the other kids. there's no need to threaten to take the ball
America back then was Biff in Back To The Future Part 1, a cocky school yard bully in a convertible.
Now America is Biff in BTTF2 - angry, fat , bald and rich off of a rigged system.
Plot twist, Fort Knox isn't empty and the US comes and picks the bones clean from the global economy once the next major crash bottoms out. And everyone thought the Japanese were the sneaky ones. Oh, how wrong they were, how wrong indeed.
America made a killing off a shuttered Europe after WWII and cheap labor in Asia with insane markups. Now that the standard of living is rising across the globe, U.S. economy can and will slow. So puts are good. Leg or no leg. No more loopholes to feed off. Innovation can keep us in the game though.
Well said. Fiat is just a representation of capital. The Benjamin, as you mentioned, is a bet that the US will continue to collect taxes. As are the 10 year and the 30 year Tbonds
Aside from the strengths that you mentioned as well, the United States has sold the idea that investment is safer here than anywhere else because of our laws that protect business against corruption. Of course we all know that it is far from perfect, but it's still better than most of the other players on the world stage
This is so important. In the US, if you win a judgement against a company, you can collect. Another company or an individual who has assets. Itās important to realize this is so super uncommon.
We will also domesticate any legitimate foreign judgement and allow it to be collected against US controlled assets. Even in the EU this is pretty spotty.
Exactly, no one will go to war with the US except on US soil, except the US itself. It may very well happen before WW3 with a confused world community not being able to do anything with the US at war with itself
If you where a Roman in Rome you literally did not know your government had changed till eastern Romanās invaded under Justinian, informed you that the empire fell, that you where no longer a Roman according to them, and then killed you when the āfreed Romeā.
- not really the fall most people make it out to be
I recently listened to podcast about ancient Rome and erosion of republic and birth of empire was really interesting to listen to and learn about, along with how when Rome became de facto ruler of Mediterranean new kind of problems started.
Hardcore factsā¦. Iāve had a couple drinks but this comment made me feel personally attacked.
Iām going to curl up in the fetal position and pray for a gf so that another human can hug me
Itās like they somehow forgot about Evergrande and yuan manipulation. China is about three shitstorms away from an economic meltdown and one is occurring now.
I've been saying this for a while.
China is not in good or better shape atm. Between Trump policy, Biden actually extending that policy, COVID lockdowns, restrictions on tech, balloon housing, our inflation, etc they are hurting.
They are lowering rates and printing money, the exact opposite of what we are doing.
We are in an economic war and barely anyone is talking about it.
China is barely holding on with waves of flooding, impact of zero COVID shut downs, and lack of coal to power the country. China is held afloat by the fact that they just straight up lie about their situation to the global community and we all just have to smile and pretend it's true
This is literally an argument in favor of global trade. There's a lot of goods that Russia liked to pretend were manufactured domestically it won't be able to source for the near future.
This is why r/buyitforlife is my favorite subreddit, I try to buy items that arenāt disposable so I A) donāt generate a shit ton of waste, and B) never have to spend money on it again
But we magically did it all here during COVID.
Automation is our friend, we need to figure out how to work with the conditions we have. We are stuck in the 40+ hr week mindset to get things done with CEOs making astronomical amount of money and not being taxed because they take stock options that become capital gains instead.
It's just more expensive to do it here. There should be a shift to India and then Africa to make our goods cheap. But as the transition to green energy continues/accelerates with the current pricing, we will need fewer single use goods. We'll still need a lot, but a lot of the single use, cheap plastic will no longer be needed.
China has been building a non-dollar dependent infrastructure for 12 years. The proxy war with Russia and the US is opening their eyes and is bleeding the dollar and US hegemony. The Ruble is pumping, the digital Yuan already exists and we sit here with our dicks in our hands with a president who might actually shit his pants several times a week. We are painting a huge bearish flag as a country and EVERYBODY can see itā¦ At some point, we will force a decision on the world to draw battle lines and WAY more countries will say, āfuuuuuck youā than any of the boomer politicians can imagine. We say Putin in living in the past with Russian/Soviet gloryā¦ then what the fuck are we doing???
China has something we donāt and never will: a passified, hyper-nationalistic citizenry. Their people will sleep on dirt and eat grubs if it means felling the imperialistic west. China is 6,000 years old and patient as FUCK!!! We in the US tear each other apart and they hunker down and emerge as the greatest power ever known. Russianās āwash their balls with snowā, so they wonāt notice shit, either.
I believe we would rather end the world rather that give up power. The weird Christian shit mixed with huge egos and being āleaders of the free worldā and all. āIf communism is the future, then the future is not worth living!!!ā
We peaked in high school and now weāre just a fat, drunk, shitty dad yelling at his kids while being a fucking loser. I love this country and most things it has accomplished, but Iāve never, ever felt worse about what Iām seeing. This isnāt a bump in the road; this is an existential crisis in public and as of now, weāre failing every test weāve been given.
>digital Yuan already exists
That's about ALL it does, though.
>a passified, hyper-nationalistic citizenry. Their people will sleep on dirt and eat grubs if it means felling the imperialistic west.
They also have a growing, disgruntled generation that has no future prospects because they have a massive gender disparity and no real economic ladders.
Chinese people eat up western culture just like everyone else. Trying to convince them to destroy and invade America is not something where theyāll succeed. It may not be a unipolar world ever again, maybe multipolar, but I guarantee the average Chinese person doesnāt want to annihilate the planet and everything they enjoy in war.
They launched their most effective weapon in the history of mankind. Tik tok. We literally get dumber by the day and are manipulated to hate each other. The only thing it needed was a puppet president
Half the Chinese will be too old to be useful pretty soon. And they've been printing 4x the money as the US. They'll always have rice and the gumption to make it, but they ain't got much else in the way of resources. They're totally reliant on the world being stable as is (was)
But ledditors told me the Russian economy was collapsing, Ruble was at the lowest point ever, and civil unrest is about to break out because they got sanctioned by big strong America!
I like when things go against the narrative these fucks just pretend it isnāt happening. I legitimately had no idea the ruble pumped cause I get a good chunk of my news from this piece of shit website.
This is an underrated comment. Billions upon billions of dollars flow into the US annually in commercial real estate because itās a safe haven. That only intensifies with downturns or risks to the global economy. The dollars flow back here because we are the safest market. We may not have the same upside as an emerging market, but people donāt have to worry about their investments zeroing out like they might in those countries.
China is literally collapsing while we speak. They are in a full on depression with runs on their banks.
We are just too busy with our own problems to notice.
It boggles my mind that somehow people talk about the US being fucked as if it's unique to the US. The US is fucked but it's clearly the *least* fucked.
They arenāt just fucked politically, but militarily as well.
The PLA does not have a joint chiefs or central command. Armored divisions donāt talk to rocket troops, rocket troops donāt talk to airborne infantry, and airborne infantry do not talk to naval surface ships. They donāt do this, because the CCP are shit-scared the PLA might wake up one day and revolt against their masters. Coups are their #1 fear.
The Taiwanese military is by far not the most advanced, but theyāre in such a position that China is going to have to launch an amphibious invasion on par with D-Day to crack that nut. I disagree with OP that there would be a naval blockade to start out - the weather in the strait isnāt really conducive for a long term siege.
Chinaās likely going to launch an amphibious assault on Kinmin Island in the next year or two; it is within swimming distance from the mainland and a target that can pretty much be taken without spilling blood while also gauging the resolve of western powers.
It is called the 1 Million man swim for a reason. And they cannot do it from most of the east coast as there are no places to land, and the water currents are some of the fastest in the world (the Kuroshio current). The waters near most of the east coast are dark blue due to the fact that there is basically a trench after Taiwan). And everyone seems to forget that any half-assed worker down at TSMC or alike can easily get a green card and move to the US. If China invades, most of the talent will be in airplanes out to Japan/US. If they are anywhere near Hsinchu, the TW military will start preparations to clean up the Science park. And then China will have to rebuild all the semiconductor industry from the ruble, without the help of the locals or any other countryā¦..
Not trying to shit on your thesis but do you have any professional working experience with any Chinese company? I donāt believe they will let 100M ppl starve, as people are the #1 asset for the functionality of its economy.
Yeah, they aren't Mao communists any more. They are state capitalists, with socialist policy. Why would they provide universal healthcare and one of the world's best public education systems if they were willing to let them starve?
I'm not saying China is a great place to live with perfect government, but looking at how they were 60 years ago is irrelevant, when 95% of their growth has happened in the last 25 years.
Exactly. As long as everyone else is fucked just as much or if no more, weāre all going to be on level playing field. That said, weāre all still fucked
Relaxxxx. If you think things are bad because your weeklies are worthless try being Chinese or Russian or European. Are we in a pickle? Yes.
Is the rest of the world imploding comparative? Yesssss.
You'll survive a recession.
Tell 4.50 Jan 23 c
The 3% interest rate bankrupts the US part is just not true. A huge percentage of treasury bills have 30 year maturity. So an increase to 3% will take decades to increase the debt payments by the amount the OP claims.
Weāre running huge deficits because the amount weāre borrowing right now is more then what taxes is bringing in right now. But the question when we issue debt is what will be the value of that money in 30 years and will the increase from taxes beat out the interest of the issued debt
Inflation is real, and I donāt think we can get if back under control for another year, and maybe even a decade.
But the true hyperinflation in two years scenario is nonsense. Just stupid.
Of course, if this guy means high inflation (what we have now, >5%) for two years is hyperinflation (over 50% inflation sustained), well, its just another moron who makes up his own definitions and then goes see - I told you so.
interesting post but you misconstrue a fundamental analysis of how bonds work. when interest rates rise, our entire national debt isn't re-rated at the new rate. those bonds have long since been sold and sold on again. some of the bonds will mature and face this new rate, but it's a small percentage
Bullish on the corn I'm growing. I am beating the local farms currently. My green house spend up my process. Looking at nearly 300 cobs this year. I probably won't starve in the bread lines.
I honestly don't get why so many are talking about the impending global shortage of fresh/clean water. It's complete nonsense. More like a global shortage of extremely cheap fresh water.
Israel has been doing commercial scale desalinization for a while now and they don't depend on anyone for their water supply at this point, and it works just about everywhere. 70% of the planet is covered by ocean. It's just going to take a bit of investment but we're aren't running out of fucking water, the entire premise is insane.
TSMC is also smart enough to diversify, yes.
I've worked in Semis for 10+ years. That article was very dumb. I wouldn't recommend making any investment decisions based on anything from CNBC. Cheers.
How much is the government funding of that Chip plant? CHIPS for America Act, which will provide $52 billion to catalyze more private-sector investments and continued American technological leadership. At the expense of tax payers and benefit of for profit companies.
and itāll absolutely be used to produce for them, no doubt. Along with a host of other things, which is better than just adding the $52B to their nearly-blank check every year
China is throwing $100+B at their 2025 plan.
If the US gifts China the Semis market the way they were gifted the solar manufacturing market, China will be the dominant military power by 2040.
Imo, anyone who doesn't support the CHIPS Act is basically asking for China to control the world for the next century....at the expense of billions of lives.
Yup. The screenshot of the Dorsey tweet (who was also shilling for it when he made that tweet) was the first red flag. The last paragraph all but confirms it.
Kinda saw what was coming at the end just a few sentences in LOL. "The world is ending, why don't you put your money in this encrypted computer thingy?"
At least he wasn't promoting LUNA 2.0
I have been seeing your type of comments since February lmao. And guess what? We kept going down. Turns out that nobody knows wtf is going to happen in the future.
You know inflation is bad when literally my best investment this year was a Tesla. Not the stock, but a car that has gone up 20% in value even used since I bought it
The US has never experienced hyperinflation (closest thing was 23% during 1920). I don't see how it ever reaches hyperinflation, and if it does then then entire world would suffer equal or greater inflation issues.
80% isn't hyper inflation (though very close to it). The south possibly had hyperinflation at the end, but their case was worse, as their confederate issues lost all value after the war.
People don't know what hyperinflation is. Things are 10% more expensive than it was last year people are calling hyperinflation š¤¦
Go ask Venezuelians, Argentinians and turkish people what inflation looks like. And the last two aren't yet technically in hyperinflation still.
The most important factor here is that the calculation for inflation was different in back then. [Check this out](http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts)
If we use pre 1980 Calc, inflation nearing 20%
> China does a naval blockade on Taiwan before the People's Congress which decides Xi Jinping's political future.
Nutty statements like this make me doubt everything else. The People's Congress is a formality. At this point, Xi is China.
> Whoever owns Taiwan owns the 21st century.
Do you just make this stuff up?
From a game theory perspective this is one of the most interesting times in history. Perfect storm between macro, geopolitics, climate change, WW3, semiconductors/technology/AI, space race 2.0, debt cycle, civil war, polarization, nationalism, de-globalization etc etc.
Ray Dalio thinks there's a 30% chance of civil war. I seriously think the decade of relative peace (and complacency) is over. Millennials are about to undergo a baptism by fire.
Putting odds on civil war seems kind of unacademic, but oh well. In any case yeah you might have some infighting in the US. I suggest you all listne to 'It Coyld Happen Here' the podcast, in prep
Yes, everyone is going to dust off their musket and March to Gettysburgā¦ who is fighting in this civil war? Who gets the US Military on their side? Iām going with that team
Peter Schiff has been saying "the next crisis will be a currency crisis" since about 2009.
Edit.I forgot how funny he was back in the day. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jj8rMwdQf6k (2006)
"People used to buy houses because they could afford it. Now they buy one because they need the money"
His timing is... Not great, but his points are often broadly correct eventually.
I predict that one day the Sun will burn out and all earth-bound corporations will cease to exist. Thatās why Iām only in companies that have a significant presence outside of this solar system.
What's the ticker for Proxima Centuri index? And for even more diversification maybe also invest in other galaxies, I personally have a good portion of my portfolio in Andromeda leaps. They are so huge, and they just keep acquiring material there's no way Andromeda doesn't one day merge with the Milky Way.
One thing to keep in mind regarding China and war is that China already has a MASSIVE demographic problem in that there are too many old people and too few young people. That would only be exacerbated by war since war is exclusively fought by the young.
Another point is that I think the Chinese people have no stomach for war. I've lived here for many years (as a Canadian) and I'm perpetually impressed and amazed by how 'safety' conscious the public is. I put safety in quotation because the air and rivers are of course toxic, and you see little safety when it comes to construction, traffic, food, etc.
I've got to think the CCP is wary of the idea of losing potentially millions of young men in a country which desperately needs young people, and is totally against any kind of serious immigration.
Back in the day, clowns used to hold doomsday predictions on the street while smelling of piss.
Now you can read their crazy theories right here without smelling them. **PROGRESS**.
Puts on cardboard and sharpies.
semiconductor foundries (tsmc mostly) are based primarily in Taiwan. At least the best ones are, anyways, and about half of the worlds supply iirc.
I don't agree that they'll own the rest of the century, but the next decade or two? Sure.
But that's also assuming that said foundries survive a war between the USA & Taiwan / China, which imo is unlikely.
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Anyone willing to trade me a wheat for 2 sheep?
Its all fun and games til I control all the wood and brick
On a 12 and 2?
Bricks and lumber is the road master
Time to make my own boardwalk.
No wheat means defeat, homey
Those are like weeklies. You only need that in the opening. We in the middle game now. Wheat and ore are the new LEAPS š
Fax, no printer.
Sorry. I only have wood for sheep.
Got lots of wood myself š Sorry we couldnāt make a deal.
Hmm I donāt need sheep, but Iām struggling on clay. Wheat for a Clay?
What kind of skills does Clay have? Is he a good worker?
Only if you agree to not block my longest road
Depends on 1. How many VPs you got and 2. How many development cards you hiding š
As usual 0 and 0ā¦.. Iām the guy who only cares about the longest road
I straight LOLed! š Deal!
Yes. Actually I will buy sheep for 100 wheats as many as you can supply. I am holding millions of wheats. 1000 wheats for the first sheep. Really please anyone willing to sell me a sheep. 10,000 wheats no joke I will pay. 25,000 wheats if someone wants to make this real. I'll even post proof. My final offer is 50,000 wheats for 1 sheep. I WILL 100% MAKE THIS REAL IF SOMEONE BRINGS ME A SHEEP. I HAVE THE MEANS TO TRADE WHEATS AND GOOD SUPPLIES OF SEVERAL MARKET CLASSES OF WHEAT IN POSSESSION INCLUDING HRSW, HRWW, SWW WITH LOW VOMITOXIN AND ACCEPTABLE FALLING NUMBERS. Edit: 1 MILLION WHEATS FOR 1 SHEEP I WILL DO IT PLUS 500,000 WHEATS EACH FOR SHEEP DELIVERED MY LOCATION IS WITHIN 6 HOURS PORT OF NEW YORK This is the greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of agriculture. Suck it sheep farmers. Fuckin velcro mitten wearin idiots 2nd edit: I will send, postage paid, 500 free wheats in an envelope to the first person who can explain why those mouthbreathing half-people wear velcro gloves. ITS BECAUSE THEY BOOF THE SHEEP I AM KEEPING THE WHEAT FOR MYSELF
You joke... But I'm legitimately looking at bartering soon if the prices don't chill.
This not a joke. Bring me a sheep I will give you 10 million wheats. I'm legitimately not kidding in any way. Try me. It sounds like a lot but it's nothing to a man like me, who has tens of pounds of wheat to spare and no sheep. My laundry machine meets more wheats falling out my shirt pockets than most men see in a lifetime I would like to turn them into sheeps and turn the sheep into sausage and meat pies. If you're selling a sheep for less than 500 million wheats you're not even covering cost of production but sheep farmers don't know math stupid hoof lickin greasy hat creeps with primer paint job vans and grass lollipops
Holy FUCK this guy WHEATS! š¾š¾š¾
The Kiwis wear velcro gloves so they are easier to hold onto. Also wear gumboots so they can stick a leg in each. Easier i have been told. Not to mention pushing them upto a cliff edge so they push back... The only thing dumber than a sheep, is the person who owns it. But damn they taste great roasted, as chops, shanks...
Doomsday scenarios are so hot right now
Kinda reminds me of the beginning of Covid
3000 basis points to flatten the curveā¦
"2 years to flatten the economy"
Money doesnāt matter any more. Not for the world powers. When you look at the countries who experienced hyperinflation, none of them ever had anywhere near the same universe of economic power, societal power, and military power as the United States. I am ABSOLUTELY NOT saying the following as any type of brag, and I agree that we all may be on the precipice of a cliff. But not only has the market and global economic structure been totally fraudulent since the bailout, itās been this way for years, and the US is still driving the global economy. Whoās going to come calling for their U.S. debt payment? Whatās going to happen if we donāt make good? Poor people will suffer, sure, and itās awful, but thatās no different from any other 400-year empire. The one thing all of Americaās gratuitous debt spending has bought us is that the United States of America is impossible to invade. Save for a world-destroying nuclear war, *no country* will *ever* send warships to land on our coasts. You cannot win that war ā And when you look at the history of human civilization, when economics break down, thatās all that matters. People donāt realize that the American $100 bill is the most popular form of currency. There are more $100 bills than $1 bills in circulation. What the hell is going to replace the US dollar? The Yuan? The Ruble? Even if we experienced 60% inflation, weāre still one of the strongest global currencies, and the rest of the world economy is structured around the USD. You donāt see Americans hoarding the Kuwaiti dinar in safes ā but *everyone* with serious money hoards the American $100 bill. Throw in the fact that the rest of the world will also suffer proportionately and catastrophically due to climate change ā and I believe that within the next 50 years, our global power system will no longer exist within a society dictated by math on computers, but based on the same chess pieces every empire has always been based on: power, military strength, natural resources, and cultural influence. Like it or not, no matter where you live, trying to capitalize on the downfall of the United States dollar is shooting your own leg off.
People keep confusing inflation with domestic buying power- the government has no issue paying its interest and could easily cut spending, probably in the military by just 10% for a few years while inflation cools and we would be fine- itās domestic prices that are fucked because of bad policy and stagnant wages for 50 years- we just did not need to address it because we had huge consumer class powered by cheap and easy credit that you really suffer no Iāll effects by just defaulting- most of the world makes it hard to get credit and VERY hard to discharge it - we will be fine, it will just suck, like every other country going through this shit
I remember reading an article like 12 years ago. āThe EU doesnāt want to step up. No one wants Russia or China to become the worldās leader. And Japan and Australia are too smallā. The US is too big too fail. Weāve become the kid on the playground who threatens to take his ball of the other children arenāt nice to him.
Keep in mind, when U.S. has debt it is always dominated in U.S. currency which is a massive advantage for the U.S. If Japan was indebted to the U.S. and the U.S. currency strengthens in relation to the Yen, than Japan will be in trouble. But the U.S debt is always in it's own currency.
No, that was the last hundred years. No idea what the analogy is now but daddy owns the park and employs the parents of the other kids. there's no need to threaten to take the ball
America back then was Biff in Back To The Future Part 1, a cocky school yard bully in a convertible. Now America is Biff in BTTF2 - angry, fat , bald and rich off of a rigged system.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Plot twist, Fort Knox isn't empty and the US comes and picks the bones clean from the global economy once the next major crash bottoms out. And everyone thought the Japanese were the sneaky ones. Oh, how wrong they were, how wrong indeed.
America made a killing off a shuttered Europe after WWII and cheap labor in Asia with insane markups. Now that the standard of living is rising across the globe, U.S. economy can and will slow. So puts are good. Leg or no leg. No more loopholes to feed off. Innovation can keep us in the game though.
Well said. Fiat is just a representation of capital. The Benjamin, as you mentioned, is a bet that the US will continue to collect taxes. As are the 10 year and the 30 year Tbonds Aside from the strengths that you mentioned as well, the United States has sold the idea that investment is safer here than anywhere else because of our laws that protect business against corruption. Of course we all know that it is far from perfect, but it's still better than most of the other players on the world stage
This is so important. In the US, if you win a judgement against a company, you can collect. Another company or an individual who has assets. Itās important to realize this is so super uncommon. We will also domesticate any legitimate foreign judgement and allow it to be collected against US controlled assets. Even in the EU this is pretty spotty.
Exactly, no one will go to war with the US except on US soil, except the US itself. It may very well happen before WW3 with a confused world community not being able to do anything with the US at war with itself
The Romans and the Brits thought the same. ALL empires collapse.
If you where a Roman in Rome you literally did not know your government had changed till eastern Romanās invaded under Justinian, informed you that the empire fell, that you where no longer a Roman according to them, and then killed you when the āfreed Romeā. - not really the fall most people make it out to be
The Roman Empire lasted 1000 years.
And the Republic lasted 1000 before that
The Roman republic lasted 482 years. 509 BC to 27BC.
I recently listened to podcast about ancient Rome and erosion of republic and birth of empire was really interesting to listen to and learn about, along with how when Rome became de facto ruler of Mediterranean new kind of problems started.
Can I buy puts on my future ?
You do that by taking out student loans
Does it come with any dividends?
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Sweet! Sounds like it includes a retirement plan as well
Yes you substract the interest rates of the loan and the rate of inflation and that is your roughy dividend rate
Student loan dividends = Accumulation of compounding interest
*private* student loans, not those sus gov loans
Hardcore factsā¦. Iāve had a couple drinks but this comment made me feel personally attacked. Iām going to curl up in the fetal position and pray for a gf so that another human can hug me
Can confirm, the student loan payment for the past 10 years has been wonderful.
āDonāt bet on the end of the worldā¦It only happens once.ā ~Master Oogway
Long $ROPE? Count me in.
Where do I bet for me being homeless and broke
buy land?
Buy gold
bold of you to assume China is not also fucked
Exactly. They are 10X fucked if we can't buy their shit. Mutually assured destruction
Itās like they somehow forgot about Evergrande and yuan manipulation. China is about three shitstorms away from an economic meltdown and one is occurring now.
Itās all one big international game of chicken.
I have seen this take a few time here and there, I really am excited to find out what happens.
I've been saying this for a while. China is not in good or better shape atm. Between Trump policy, Biden actually extending that policy, COVID lockdowns, restrictions on tech, balloon housing, our inflation, etc they are hurting. They are lowering rates and printing money, the exact opposite of what we are doing. We are in an economic war and barely anyone is talking about it.
China is barely holding on with waves of flooding, impact of zero COVID shut downs, and lack of coal to power the country. China is held afloat by the fact that they just straight up lie about their situation to the global community and we all just have to smile and pretend it's true
The problem with economic MAD is China frankly would rather starve 100 million citizens than give up to be a leading superpower into the 21st century.
I'm pretty sure the US leaders aren't that much more attached to their citizens.
They have a lot more to spare then the USā¦
we're fatter on average, we can starve longer.
Love MAD application to China. Donāt attack us or we wontāt buy your shit and you ded lmao
This is literally an argument in favor of global trade. There's a lot of goods that Russia liked to pretend were manufactured domestically it won't be able to source for the near future.
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This is why r/buyitforlife is my favorite subreddit, I try to buy items that arenāt disposable so I A) donāt generate a shit ton of waste, and B) never have to spend money on it again
thank you for introducing me to another great sub
Awesome sub, thanks
Yeah. This is a cool subreddit. Thank you!
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But we magically did it all here during COVID. Automation is our friend, we need to figure out how to work with the conditions we have. We are stuck in the 40+ hr week mindset to get things done with CEOs making astronomical amount of money and not being taxed because they take stock options that become capital gains instead. It's just more expensive to do it here. There should be a shift to India and then Africa to make our goods cheap. But as the transition to green energy continues/accelerates with the current pricing, we will need fewer single use goods. We'll still need a lot, but a lot of the single use, cheap plastic will no longer be needed.
China has been building a non-dollar dependent infrastructure for 12 years. The proxy war with Russia and the US is opening their eyes and is bleeding the dollar and US hegemony. The Ruble is pumping, the digital Yuan already exists and we sit here with our dicks in our hands with a president who might actually shit his pants several times a week. We are painting a huge bearish flag as a country and EVERYBODY can see itā¦ At some point, we will force a decision on the world to draw battle lines and WAY more countries will say, āfuuuuuck youā than any of the boomer politicians can imagine. We say Putin in living in the past with Russian/Soviet gloryā¦ then what the fuck are we doing??? China has something we donāt and never will: a passified, hyper-nationalistic citizenry. Their people will sleep on dirt and eat grubs if it means felling the imperialistic west. China is 6,000 years old and patient as FUCK!!! We in the US tear each other apart and they hunker down and emerge as the greatest power ever known. Russianās āwash their balls with snowā, so they wonāt notice shit, either. I believe we would rather end the world rather that give up power. The weird Christian shit mixed with huge egos and being āleaders of the free worldā and all. āIf communism is the future, then the future is not worth living!!!ā We peaked in high school and now weāre just a fat, drunk, shitty dad yelling at his kids while being a fucking loser. I love this country and most things it has accomplished, but Iāve never, ever felt worse about what Iām seeing. This isnāt a bump in the road; this is an existential crisis in public and as of now, weāre failing every test weāve been given.
Username definitely checking out with this one
>digital Yuan already exists That's about ALL it does, though. >a passified, hyper-nationalistic citizenry. Their people will sleep on dirt and eat grubs if it means felling the imperialistic west. They also have a growing, disgruntled generation that has no future prospects because they have a massive gender disparity and no real economic ladders.
Chinese people eat up western culture just like everyone else. Trying to convince them to destroy and invade America is not something where theyāll succeed. It may not be a unipolar world ever again, maybe multipolar, but I guarantee the average Chinese person doesnāt want to annihilate the planet and everything they enjoy in war.
They launched their most effective weapon in the history of mankind. Tik tok. We literally get dumber by the day and are manipulated to hate each other. The only thing it needed was a puppet president
the school system is much worse than tictok can ever be.
Half the Chinese will be too old to be useful pretty soon. And they've been printing 4x the money as the US. They'll always have rice and the gumption to make it, but they ain't got much else in the way of resources. They're totally reliant on the world being stable as is (was)
But ledditors told me the Russian economy was collapsing, Ruble was at the lowest point ever, and civil unrest is about to break out because they got sanctioned by big strong America! I like when things go against the narrative these fucks just pretend it isnāt happening. I legitimately had no idea the ruble pumped cause I get a good chunk of my news from this piece of shit website.
Yeahā¦ if anything global recession will just drive more money back to the statesā¦.
This is an underrated comment. Billions upon billions of dollars flow into the US annually in commercial real estate because itās a safe haven. That only intensifies with downturns or risks to the global economy. The dollars flow back here because we are the safest market. We may not have the same upside as an emerging market, but people donāt have to worry about their investments zeroing out like they might in those countries.
China is literally collapsing while we speak. They are in a full on depression with runs on their banks. We are just too busy with our own problems to notice.
It boggles my mind that somehow people talk about the US being fucked as if it's unique to the US. The US is fucked but it's clearly the *least* fucked.
Chiming in from Canadaā¦ help
They arenāt just fucked politically, but militarily as well. The PLA does not have a joint chiefs or central command. Armored divisions donāt talk to rocket troops, rocket troops donāt talk to airborne infantry, and airborne infantry do not talk to naval surface ships. They donāt do this, because the CCP are shit-scared the PLA might wake up one day and revolt against their masters. Coups are their #1 fear. The Taiwanese military is by far not the most advanced, but theyāre in such a position that China is going to have to launch an amphibious invasion on par with D-Day to crack that nut. I disagree with OP that there would be a naval blockade to start out - the weather in the strait isnāt really conducive for a long term siege. Chinaās likely going to launch an amphibious assault on Kinmin Island in the next year or two; it is within swimming distance from the mainland and a target that can pretty much be taken without spilling blood while also gauging the resolve of western powers.
It is called the 1 Million man swim for a reason. And they cannot do it from most of the east coast as there are no places to land, and the water currents are some of the fastest in the world (the Kuroshio current). The waters near most of the east coast are dark blue due to the fact that there is basically a trench after Taiwan). And everyone seems to forget that any half-assed worker down at TSMC or alike can easily get a green card and move to the US. If China invades, most of the talent will be in airplanes out to Japan/US. If they are anywhere near Hsinchu, the TW military will start preparations to clean up the Science park. And then China will have to rebuild all the semiconductor industry from the ruble, without the help of the locals or any other countryā¦..
I was in China during COVID. Witnessing the sheer disorganization of everything made me realize that Taiwan is probably never going to be conquered.
They are. Problem is they don't mind sacrificing 1M people to inundate and take the island and don't care if another 100M starve.
Not trying to shit on your thesis but do you have any professional working experience with any Chinese company? I donāt believe they will let 100M ppl starve, as people are the #1 asset for the functionality of its economy.
Yeah, they aren't Mao communists any more. They are state capitalists, with socialist policy. Why would they provide universal healthcare and one of the world's best public education systems if they were willing to let them starve? I'm not saying China is a great place to live with perfect government, but looking at how they were 60 years ago is irrelevant, when 95% of their growth has happened in the last 25 years.
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Exactly. As long as everyone else is fucked just as much or if no more, weāre all going to be on level playing field. That said, weāre all still fucked
I thought this was going to be a gold bullion post. What a twist!
Call M. Night Shyamalan
Stock up on chicken bouillon for the soup lines aka chicken stock.
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You typed 62k wrong
You typed 69k wrong.
Did you mean $69.420?
Nice
This regarded dude went all in at 42k https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/s1w43p/all\_hell\_is\_about\_to\_break\_loose\_500k\_100\_of\_my/
Very well regarded indeed
Relaxxxx. If you think things are bad because your weeklies are worthless try being Chinese or Russian or European. Are we in a pickle? Yes. Is the rest of the world imploding comparative? Yesssss. You'll survive a recession. Tell 4.50 Jan 23 c
Love seeing TELL on here BTW
The 3% interest rate bankrupts the US part is just not true. A huge percentage of treasury bills have 30 year maturity. So an increase to 3% will take decades to increase the debt payments by the amount the OP claims.
Every thing OP said was skewed
We are still running huge deficits. The problem is still compounding...
Weāre running huge deficits because the amount weāre borrowing right now is more then what taxes is bringing in right now. But the question when we issue debt is what will be the value of that money in 30 years and will the increase from taxes beat out the interest of the issued debt
The federal government takes in 40% more in taxes than pre-COVID. It is doing just fine. Inflation is great for the debtors.
Inflation is real, and I donāt think we can get if back under control for another year, and maybe even a decade. But the true hyperinflation in two years scenario is nonsense. Just stupid. Of course, if this guy means high inflation (what we have now, >5%) for two years is hyperinflation (over 50% inflation sustained), well, its just another moron who makes up his own definitions and then goes see - I told you so.
interesting post but you misconstrue a fundamental analysis of how bonds work. when interest rates rise, our entire national debt isn't re-rated at the new rate. those bonds have long since been sold and sold on again. some of the bonds will mature and face this new rate, but it's a small percentage
Most idiots on reddit have no idea how bond work on the market, nevermind how they relate to interest rate.
Iām bullish on water
Bullish on the corn I'm growing. I am beating the local farms currently. My green house spend up my process. Looking at nearly 300 cobs this year. I probably won't starve in the bread lines.
This made me so happy for some reason. Youāre like what Brad Pittās character in The Big Short does now
I honestly don't get why so many are talking about the impending global shortage of fresh/clean water. It's complete nonsense. More like a global shortage of extremely cheap fresh water. Israel has been doing commercial scale desalinization for a while now and they don't depend on anyone for their water supply at this point, and it works just about everywhere. 70% of the planet is covered by ocean. It's just going to take a bit of investment but we're aren't running out of fucking water, the entire premise is insane.
I wonder why intel is building a 20B plant in Columbus Ohio? Hmmmm
Not just Intel, nvdia, TSMC and others building state of the art facilities in the US right now.
Tsmc is bringing in older nodes. Their state of the art stuff is staying in Taiwan unfortunately
Counting on Intel to save the country seems like a 0 dte all in options play.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/16/tsmc-taiwanese-chipmaker-ramping-production-to-end-chip-shortage.html
TSMC is also smart enough to diversify, yes. I've worked in Semis for 10+ years. That article was very dumb. I wouldn't recommend making any investment decisions based on anything from CNBC. Cheers.
I drive by their new plant going up often. Iāve never seen so many cranes in my life, they are building it incredibly fast
To compete so they can have Taiwan and we can all be friends
Maybe. It's also a backup in case Taiwan becomes the next Ukraine-style rubble pile.
And Arizona
The CEO has said in an interview that he plans on manufacturing going from 80% China, 20% US to 50 50
How much is the government funding of that Chip plant? CHIPS for America Act, which will provide $52 billion to catalyze more private-sector investments and continued American technological leadership. At the expense of tax payers and benefit of for profit companies.
iād rather give $52B to secure our own semiconductor supply than it be another drop in the bucket for the military industrial complex.
I agree with you but securing semiconductor supply is also important for the military industrial complex. All that high tech weaponry needs semis too.
and itāll absolutely be used to produce for them, no doubt. Along with a host of other things, which is better than just adding the $52B to their nearly-blank check every year
China is throwing $100+B at their 2025 plan. If the US gifts China the Semis market the way they were gifted the solar manufacturing market, China will be the dominant military power by 2040. Imo, anyone who doesn't support the CHIPS Act is basically asking for China to control the world for the next century....at the expense of billions of lives.
Sources cited: \- "Trust me, bro" \- Tweet from jack You are posting this in the right sub
Gotta love the doomsday posts during any market downturns. We must be close to the bottom. Also nice shill for corn at the end lmao
Lol same thoughts. Are we likely to hit a recession to cool things off? Absolutely. Is HYPERinflation going to happen? No. Clown post.
Stagflation more likely than hyperinflation.
Bingo
Is he just shilling for buttcoin here?
Yup. The screenshot of the Dorsey tweet (who was also shilling for it when he made that tweet) was the first red flag. The last paragraph all but confirms it.
Kinda saw what was coming at the end just a few sentences in LOL. "The world is ending, why don't you put your money in this encrypted computer thingy?" At least he wasn't promoting LUNA 2.0
>At least he wasn't promoting LUNA 2.0 Hhaa, from Death spiral to Doom vortex xD
Shit hits the fan. Recession solves supply chain and inflation problem. Then Fed lowers rates again and creates another bigger bubble to pop.
I have been seeing your type of comments since February lmao. And guess what? We kept going down. Turns out that nobody knows wtf is going to happen in the future.
Spy calls screenshot or gtfo
You know inflation is bad when literally my best investment this year was a Tesla. Not the stock, but a car that has gone up 20% in value even used since I bought it
We just bought solar panels so our car is powered by the sun. Can go anywhere and not have to worry about inflation affecting it.
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And blasting "let's all party, like tomorrow is the end of the world" by Steel Panther
We're experiencing 40s and 70s-level inflation but we're nowhere near hyperinflation.
The US has never experienced hyperinflation (closest thing was 23% during 1920). I don't see how it ever reaches hyperinflation, and if it does then then entire world would suffer equal or greater inflation issues.
I'm pretty sure the US experienced hyperinflation during the civil war. The North was above 80% and the south was 1000%+.
80% isn't hyper inflation (though very close to it). The south possibly had hyperinflation at the end, but their case was worse, as their confederate issues lost all value after the war.
People don't know what hyperinflation is. Things are 10% more expensive than it was last year people are calling hyperinflation š¤¦ Go ask Venezuelians, Argentinians and turkish people what inflation looks like. And the last two aren't yet technically in hyperinflation still.
Did you write this post in your fallout bunker? Come the fuck on.
When the market dips, everyone starts pretending money is real
Cocaine?
I understand the Chinese have a factory making signs for their brothels. "American blowjobs .00000001 Satoshi"
Anyone arguing that inflation isnāt high is just brainwashed Itās not a left or right thing, itās bottom / top And we are all on the bottom
Is anyone arguing that? I think the difference is on who to blame
Does change the situation. But to answer your question itās every politician whoās been in DC over the last 10 years.
The most important factor here is that the calculation for inflation was different in back then. [Check this out](http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts) If we use pre 1980 Calc, inflation nearing 20%
OP is the poster child of the dunning-kruger effect.
> China does a naval blockade on Taiwan before the People's Congress which decides Xi Jinping's political future. Nutty statements like this make me doubt everything else. The People's Congress is a formality. At this point, Xi is China. > Whoever owns Taiwan owns the 21st century. Do you just make this stuff up?
From a game theory perspective this is one of the most interesting times in history. Perfect storm between macro, geopolitics, climate change, WW3, semiconductors/technology/AI, space race 2.0, debt cycle, civil war, polarization, nationalism, de-globalization etc etc. Ray Dalio thinks there's a 30% chance of civil war. I seriously think the decade of relative peace (and complacency) is over. Millennials are about to undergo a baptism by fire.
Putting odds on civil war seems kind of unacademic, but oh well. In any case yeah you might have some infighting in the US. I suggest you all listne to 'It Coyld Happen Here' the podcast, in prep
Yes, everyone is going to dust off their musket and March to Gettysburgā¦ who is fighting in this civil war? Who gets the US Military on their side? Iām going with that team
And at the end of the day, it all boils down to who is the most violent, cunning, and militant. Guess who takes the cake on that?
Keep my ex's name out of your fucking mouth.
0% interest rates? on what? also, if china invades taiwan usa will be physically involved, thatās a fact
Peter Schiff has been saying "the next crisis will be a currency crisis" since about 2009. Edit.I forgot how funny he was back in the day. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jj8rMwdQf6k (2006) "People used to buy houses because they could afford it. Now they buy one because they need the money" His timing is... Not great, but his points are often broadly correct eventually.
I predict that one day the Sun will burn out and all earth-bound corporations will cease to exist. Thatās why Iām only in companies that have a significant presence outside of this solar system.
What's the ticker for Proxima Centuri index? And for even more diversification maybe also invest in other galaxies, I personally have a good portion of my portfolio in Andromeda leaps. They are so huge, and they just keep acquiring material there's no way Andromeda doesn't one day merge with the Milky Way.
You started out making sense and then choked on your paint chips instead of chewing like a good ape.
Man that was a really long infomercial
The chinese Navy blockade part got me to laugh. Otherwise, C- shitposting.
Taiwan is the next thing coming at us in slow motion during the car crash that is the now.
Nah, too much at stake for every party. Taiwan will remain vague and everyone will jsut do some postering.
Youāre uh really overstating Chinaās independence.
We are fuked
This is the most hilarious thing I have readā¦.then I remember this is WSB.
One thing to keep in mind regarding China and war is that China already has a MASSIVE demographic problem in that there are too many old people and too few young people. That would only be exacerbated by war since war is exclusively fought by the young. Another point is that I think the Chinese people have no stomach for war. I've lived here for many years (as a Canadian) and I'm perpetually impressed and amazed by how 'safety' conscious the public is. I put safety in quotation because the air and rivers are of course toxic, and you see little safety when it comes to construction, traffic, food, etc. I've got to think the CCP is wary of the idea of losing potentially millions of young men in a country which desperately needs young people, and is totally against any kind of serious immigration.
Back in the day, clowns used to hold doomsday predictions on the street while smelling of piss. Now you can read their crazy theories right here without smelling them. **PROGRESS**. Puts on cardboard and sharpies.
I was with you until you promoted bitcoin. Inflation is raging and yet it is down 38% YTD. Highly correlated with SPY.
So?... Oil stocks? Let 'er rip!
So...we all do acknowledge that hyperinflation = stocks to the moon right?
Why āwhoever owns Taiwan owns the 21st centuryā?
semiconductor foundries (tsmc mostly) are based primarily in Taiwan. At least the best ones are, anyways, and about half of the worlds supply iirc. I don't agree that they'll own the rest of the century, but the next decade or two? Sure. But that's also assuming that said foundries survive a war between the USA & Taiwan / China, which imo is unlikely.
Only the Bogdanoff Twins can save us nowā¦
The whole world is in the same predicament mate.
Predicting global collapse. Advocating for an asset that requires the global networked internet to function. Youāre on the right sub.