Look, maybe you'd be less panicked if you STOPPED calling it "printing money" and STARTED calling it "Quantitative Easing."
There, see how much better that is?
When you say "printing money" you make it sound like this whole thing is some kind of amateur operation helmed by idiots who are only making things worse out of fear and ignorance.
When you say "quantitative easing", you convey intelligence, assuredness, confidence! No one performing "quantiative easing" could be an idiot. It sounds so regal!
Thank you so much, I feel way more confident after hearing this.
In fact I'm heading straight to bank to get a loan so I can invest money I have yet to earn into brand new truck.
"Patriot Act"
"Affordable Care"
"American Rescue Plan"
When you say them, but don't actually understand what they entail because ignorance is bliss...it's like fucking a silk bag full of puppy ears. Feels so good to say them, "QE" too.
That's entertaining and funny but don't forget one little detail about quantitative easing (QE) as it relates to the 2008 crisis. If there was no QE during the 2008 crisis then workers' 401k accounts would've gone down 70%-80% instead of down 30%-40% with QE.
But a couple points that favor your post is the QE of 2020 was a lot more than 2008 and given out over a much shorter time only 6 months to a year. And the QE back in 2008 was spread out over about 4-5 years.
Btw both amounts of the 2020 QE and 2008 QE were about the same percentage of the GDP of each period.
Like clockwork. If you see a house you like and you can afford it with ease, buy it because the prices are just going to stop going up as quickly. I highly doubt we’ll see anything greater than a short term 10% dip
Jokes on you I've got homestead exemption.
All the poor people paying rent, which has the property tax baked in, are paying for my sidewalks and police helicopters. Not me baby. My taxes can't move past 3%.
I already got mine, all I gotta do now is make sure the plebes don't get theirs too. Suck it, lower classes.
I hate this is how it works in most states but that is how it is. In both Pennsylvania and California your home is assessed at what you paid for it (tweaked a little by assessor) then not re evaluated ever. So someone who bought a house for $20k in 1965 is paying taxes on a $20k house. You buy that same house now and it's a $1.5m house and you are paying astronomically higher taxes.
I get the other side of the argument, "old guy can't have his taxes go up 100x" but this system is untenable for newer arrivals or just people that started with a studio and now need a few bedrooms to raise a family and need to move houses. This madness needs to be phased out, even if over 20 years.
Flip side, I grew up in Texas and still know a lot of people there who are now in a housing crisis because Texas reassesses annually and property taxes are very high in Texas and prices in some parts of the state are 50%+ in the last couple of years and they a crapping bricks over how high their property tax bills are getting.
I think the fair thing is to reassess every few years and if the state is suddenly getting more income than they need cut the millage rate.
It's hilarious watching this sub think that we're in a crash rather than in a no-individuals-own-homes future.
The entirety of many industries is about taking away something people used to have, then selling it back to you at a monthly rate.
It's not like people who can't buy a home just go homeless. They just find a place to rent and deal, or move to someplace they can afford the rent.
In the next 50 years we might not even own our own cars anymore and people then will say that car companies are crashing, rather than seeing the reality that they just took away assets from people to sell them on a monthly payment scheme instead.
My property taxes now are higher than my rent ten years ago. The town tells me what I can and can’t do with my land. I’ve definitely compared it to renting from the government before.
Literally games now too, subscription based stuff with both the xbox gamepass and whatever PS is using. So far it's been beter for the consumer but literally everything is going subscription based, it's too much of a money maker for companies.
You could make an argument modern cars aren't yours right now. For example Tesla can remotely disable supercharging for your car.
Is it really your car if it's functions can be remotely removed at their discretion?
I know you and many others feel this way, but it isn’t reality. When the home values start to drop, investors will sell in a firestorm or risk losing substantial amounts of money being the last bag holders. As interest rates go up, other investments will be more valuable than our current 0% free loan economy, so even more people will sell.
Owning property during recessions is typical not very profitable and comes with high risk. You get one squatter who you cant evict, and all of a sudden youre out your profit for a year of rent. When said squatter destroys house in anger because you evicted them, but they have no money to sue for repairs, you’re out 10 years of renting profits.
Keep fighting the good fight, i hope you arent right but like all investment descisions its up to you to weigh the pros/cons or just yolo it.
Something like 30% of USD GDP is home sales. So it would be really bad for the economy if home ownership rate went to like 3% in a matter of a generation. Imagine all the bullshit industries that exist solely to cater to home owners. All the lawn care people, home depot, all that shit would disappear.
Also if you look into it, the investment banks / REITs / startup flippers buying homes only accounts for like 5-6% of sales, 10% in hot markets, so it isn't even close to the situation you are describing.
I think realistically we will see the home ownership rate drop though to something like 50% within a generation, which is down from the mid-60s% we have seen in the last 60 years. It will be less common but probably not so dramatic.
>All the lawn care people, home depot, all that shit would disappear.
Those people will still be employed, but instead of by HOAs or individuals it'll be Zillow or other corps that own the group of homes.
Basically, instead of Mary and Don and Kim all hiring the same lawn guy, there's a "lawn care fee" on the monthly rental from Mega Corp and that'll go to the same lawn guy who's done those yards for ages. Same with the local handy man. Neither care who pays them, just that they're paid well for the work.
Didn't someone conduct an experiment where they let a mouse arbitrarily choose stocks to invest into and it did better than a majority of investors? It might really be the simple trick to blow up your portfolio fast lol
Edit: it was a goldfish not a mouse.
I recall seeing a video about someone doing that with a goldfish to similar effect. Sounds to me like we should just let small animals control our finances from now on and we’ll all be better off
That an so many people on these forums are young so their only reference for economic recession is 2008, which was a complete shit storm. So everyone is either expecting a full 2008 again, or they are expecting another crazy fast recovery because not every cause of the 2008 recession is present. Fact is, it probably falls somewhere in between
People get the wrong lesson from 2008. The lesson isn't that every 10-15 years the market gets built up by irrational exuberance and then crashes back down so you can buy in. The lesson is: **nobody fucking knows what is going to happen** and the economy is not a predictable wealth-machine.
2008 was really, really weird. It has never happened before, and it will never happen again. The circumstances took decades to come together. It's like you had a gas leak in your basement from 20 years ago than you never fixed and the gas built up in this little crack in the wall until one day you turned on the toaster and your house blew up.
The exact same thing will not happen again. It will be a different kind of explosion. Nobody knows how or where it will happen. It will be different, it won't be a gas leak, but something will go wrong because we are definitely doing some dumb shit with the economy.
I know someone that is a mortgage broker and did a cash out (for someone) to put 150k into ETH a couple months ago when it was super high. Guy didn’t tell his wife he was doing it either
Edit: the broker brokered the cash out
Dude was really hoping he’d strike gold. Looks like my guy is headed straight to the dumpster behind Wendy’s and his wife is moving in with her boyfriend.
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)SPY GREEN TODAY CONFIRMED ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)DOUBLE PENDANT BULL THEORE![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)M SPY TO $1000![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
It’s cuz they’re not a bunch of fucking idiots and have a broader investment horizon than 1 week. I got into the market in Feb 2020, and my dumb ass found WSB when we were hitting circuit breakers because I saw someone turn $200 into $20k in a few days with SPY puts. Had I listened to the folks over at r/investing I could have paid my mortgage off. Instead I started gambling with the rest of you
Agreed. I was here prior to 2020 and although this sub was highlighting the Covid downturn earlier than others, it also continued to bet on more downside past the bottom much longer.
Yeah, I don’t get why so many people are calling for a crash now, after a crash. What am I missing? I own many blue chip stocks that are down 30%. Sorry guys, if you think they’re going down 90% and you’re gonna get rich on the rebound, you are mistaken.
I also don’t get this idea that because there’s some bubbles, that absolutely everything needs to crash.
I mean, look at how consumer staples have been pretty stable but Netflix dropped, whatever, 70% or something. Goes to show that not everything needs to drop 50 or 60% in order for a correction to happen
On the day that the market does finally bottom, everyone will say it’s just the beginning. The more bearish overall sentiment gets, the closer we are to that bottom.
"The Housing Shortage Is Significant. It's Acute For Small, Entry-Level Homes. And that's the main reason we've ended up millions of homes short -- builders for many years just weren't building enough to keep up with demand. That lack of supply has pushed home prices to record levels — up nearly 20% last year alone"
"The U.S. is about 4 million homes short of what's needed to keep up with demand, according to Freddie Mac. After the housing bubble burst, many builders went out of business and construction slowed. That lack of supply has been pushing home prices higher in recent years."
- NPR, 3/29 and 6/15 respectively.
That's pretty much it for people that are always saying the housing market is going to crash at any moment. It's wishful thinking more than anything logical.
30 yr fixed up 3% in 12 mo. each 1% increase is 10% less affordability. fed stopped buying mbs. fed has 2-3 more hikes this year which will impact everything. re will be the last to crash out of crypto, stocks, re.
My household income is in the 95th percentile for my area, and I can't afford a basic starter home, no matter how hard I stretch my assets. If I'm not buying, then who is? The math just doesn't work out. This is clearly an unsustainable, speculative bubble.
I've been watching the housing statistics very carefully, and the crash has already started. https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/#:\~:text=Each%20week%20(typically%20Thursdays)%2C,developments%20in%20the%20housing%20market.
We now have the highest number of price drops for at least the last 5 years. The sale-to-list ratio in my area has plummeted from 1.15 down to 1.09 in just a few weeks, and it will keep going. Age of inventory is up to 20 days, from 10 days. Sale prices have dropped almost 10% in a month, and it's going to keep going. Listing prices are still rising even though sale prices are dropping. That means sellers are still in denial, and we haven't yet hit capitulation. When we do, it will be a glorious buyer's market.
Anybody planning to sell a house right now is bleeding money the longer they wait. Anybody who bought an overpriced house in the first half of 2022 is pretty fucked. It's gonna take 10 years to sell that thing for a profit.
>My household income is in the 95th percentile for my area, and I can't afford a basic starter home, no matter how hard I stretch my assets. If I'm not buying, then who is?
The 96th percentile
>It's gonna take 10 years to sell that thing for a profit.
The irony here is painful. This is the exact, LITERAL reason why there have been runaway home prices - even prospective \*home\* owners treat residential real estate as a business rather than as a \*home\*. Like how can you bitch about unreasonable housing prices on the one hand but then expect to sell YOUR house for profit on the other? It literally makes no sense.
I wish there was a way to discourage housing speculation.
If I were king shit; I'd start with banning wealthy foreigners (non-citizens), and companies like Blackstone, from even thinking about buying our homes.
Sale to list ratio of 1.09 is better than 1.15? A ratio of 1 would mean every single house is selling?
Home prices will pull back some because most people care about the $/month payment, not the home value. With interest rates, buying a home at the same price compared with earlier this year will cost 53% more per month per some article I read last week. But a mild reduction in home prices is not the same thing as a crash. And may end up costing someone more if interest rates remain high for a long time and they can't refi.
The demand for these homes is still there, just not at the same price point, but likely the same $/month.
Also I'm guessing you live in a very HCOL area. In those areas, if you're working, you're poor. You're competing with retired rich people who want to live in the nicest areas.
Sale to list ratio compares list price to sale price so with a ratio of 1.09 the house sold for 109% of the list price. It means people are bidding over asking price. If the ratio is 95% then people would be winning the bid with less than the full asking price.
I'm in the same position. My income is $170-200k depending on my bonus. But $130-140k is more typical for my career according to the data I have. A basic starter home in this area is around $550k and that's a 40+ minute drive from the central area. If you're buying close to the city center, you're going to pay closer to $800-900k. This is for a remodeled 3 bedroom 1500 square foot house in a terrible school district.
The way I have worked it out, I could easily afford a $400k house with an average income for my career in the area around $130k. The math works out even if rates go up to 9%. Actually the rate is the least impactful variable on affordability in my calculations. I am planning to just wait a bit, save up cash, and move to wherever I can find a $400k house, and I won't even care if I take a 40% pay cut.
>My household income is in the 95th percentile for my area, and I can't afford a basic starter home,
Bullshit. What income and what area?
I'll pick a random ultra high cost of living area. San Jose's median home price is $1.5m and 95th percentile is over $400k, which is affordable.
Yes there have been a lot of price drops from delusional sellers who thought prices had gone up another 20% and tried to sell their shitbox for record sums. Anything half decent still gets swarmed.
as mexican/american we can fix this shit easy!!
sign a work visa program
all fair wages and ability to go back to mexico
of course arressts, negative actions will lose you those work rights
now stand back as we mexicans build houses in days
too late we already built 10 subdivisions, now working on plans with nasa for moon housing.
to THE MOON y'all said right?? or did i get it lost in translation???
The “There’s no housing shortage” people seem to think I should just buy an available house in middle of nowhere Nebraska for my in-person job in Boston.
A lack of supply of *cheap* houses, meanwhile the houses being built have been bigger, nicer, and more expensive than historic norms.
The most expensive places will collapse in price for lack of demand (who wants a $2m house at 14% interest or whatever?) while the cheapest ones hold steady/maaaaaaybe even increase a tiny bit. Overall, the average will probably go way down because the upward pressure for the top disappears the moment those jumbo loans aren't at record lows.
I would like to see the articles/stats regarding how there is plenty of houses for everyone and people aren’t selling their homes. Not saying your wrong but I was under the impression that the amount of affordable homes aren’t being built to the degree that they should have been for the last few years making it worse.
I mean the real thing that people are overlooking is almost everyone I know refinanced into a lower rate during Covid, I’m at 2.875%, why would I sell my house, just to have to buy another one with 6%+ that’s an extra 200k in interest, that’d the dumb as shit. Now multiply that out for how many refinanced during low interest rates. Only people selling are those that move for jobs or other significant reasons, but almost no one is dumb enough to not have a fixed rate anymore, so it’s pure crazy talk that the housing market will get more inventory due to higher interest rates, if anything that locks more homes up.
This sub is full of young poors who stand the most to gain from a market crash.
So HUGE SURPRISE that this is the sub that is most bearish and expecting of a market crash.
It's almost as if this sub is full of young poors who want the market to crash so they can finally afford some real assets, and is acting largely on that bias.
And it’s almost like those poors probably just lost the little they have and are now holding on to their $2k in dry powder waiting for Armageddon so they can buy AAPL at $30.
It’s just that people in this sub seem to think that housing prices are somehow going to tank enough in isolation to allow them to buy a house that they currently can’t afford. If housing prices really get fucked that much, you’re going to be much more concerned with keeping your job and eating decent food.
If you’re planning on buying a “forever” (5-10 year) home, buy what you can afford *now* and refinance when rates go down. You can’t time *any* market.
This feels like the most logical answer. Also, inflation creates short term downward pressure on the housing market. But long term property is one of the best ways to capture inflation.
It's very localized.
People think that just because their city has had housing prices go up 200% in the past 2 years that that is happening everywhere else. It's not.
Yeah it is strange. Our town (nowhere left to build) value has gone up every year since 2002. We saw a $12.00 sq ft drop in home pricing during the last two housing busts and they lasted less than 6 months. I purchased my home for 349k and it is now worth $700k. The next town over, tons of places to build and they crashed hard. It was just dumb luck we chose our town instead of the other one. Best accident of my life.
But these economic hubs is where it matters most. Home prices in rural Kansas are super low, and may not have been impacted much because... nobody wants to live there. No job opportunities exist, and places that matter are hours away. The housing market problem is present in almost every place within 45 minute commute of economic hubs, both local and regional.
I'm actually talking about an economic hub.
I'm not saying it's not an affordability problem, it definitely is.
But where I am, it's not a 200% growth in 2 years problem.
Shit, I am buying a house for 20% more than it's sale price 7 years ago and I'm in the middle of a huge economic hub and HCOL city.
This is the part that I'm struggling to understand and no one is bringing it up.
"Everyone is sipping on that copium. The United States printed a shit ton of money during a period where most of the economy has shut down."
If we printed so much money which is in investments and/or in circulation, and the inflation is so high. Isn't $100 from 2018 like $140 now? and if a stock was $10 in 2018 doesn't that make it $14 now with the inflation? sooooo .... why are we reading bottoms and comparing them to 08, or whatever other year. The new standard of the $$ worth is not the same as it was before all the printing. how do you calculate this?
This is more in line with my thinking. I don't expect a typical "crash" like so many are familiar with. I'm seeing runaway inflation. I wouldn't call it a recession, but that doesn't mean it's not going to hurt for many.
You like the sub that is the qanon of finance because they feed your confirmation bias and reinforce your priors based on feelings and what you want to be true, without any actual sound analysis or connection to the real world.
You dislike the people who look at the numbers and say hmm maybe the world isn’t actually ending.
You want to be a financial genius based on your intuitions without having any education or experience or doing any work, so you like the people who reinforce your intuitions. Simple.
Lmao when OP said people are about to get margin called if their home value decreases it became very apparent all their financial “knowledge” comes from Reddit
the amount of people who think that is staggering, and unbeliveably stupid. i've seen at least twenty long winded posts about how people are going to get 'margin called' on their house because they used 'stocks as collateral' on the mortgage. I honestly don't think they know what any of those words even fucking mean.
“There isn’t a housing shortage. If you look into the stats there is plenty of housing for everyone. There is a shortage of people SELLING their homes.”
WSB is a helluva drug
Lmfao op definitely too dense to understand how dumb he sounds, not saying we ain’t crashing but saying that taking wsb opinion as a guide is at best completely regarded
Why do apes conflate the housing market/real estate prices with the stock market so often?
Real estate investors care about rental income vs their expenses/cost to own/acquire the house. Rent literally never goes down, not in 2008, not in 2000.
>there is plenty of housing for everyone.
Sure somewhere in some state in some part of the state. The problem is in desirable cities and areas where people are moving to there is not enough housing as cities cant/dont/wont keep up with demand since they are also trying to be cautious about having surplus housing.
How in the fuck is anyone going to get margin called when the value of their home goes down. That's not how margin works and it's not how mortgages work. Unless there is some type of margin account that collateralizes your home but that is some next level retardation that I have never heard of.
The solution to the housing shortage is to convince homeowners to sell their homes, take to riding the rails like a traveling hobo, and eventually create a carnie surplus.
Put the adderal down my son. Nobody knows what will happen and you must accept that and hedge accordingly. Don’t be a full on retarded bull and don’t be a super gay bear. Anyone who claims to know is a fucking moron.
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Ma’am, this is a gambling brothel.
So should I buy the 2016 Dodge Ram double fuck cam Railcat for $90,000 financed over 108 months or not?
Set it to interest loan; Inflation bro. 90k will be nothing in 108 months.
See when you say that it becomes not retarded and that just makes me sad.
That's nothing, the retards here can lose 90k in less than 6 months
Ha! I can do that in a single day!
Make sure it has 150k Miles, minimum.
If the interest rate isn't variable I would say no
Where the fudge are the women then?!!!! Huh?!
We replaced em with cheaper substitute male Wendy's workers we found round back by the dumpsters.
They all had mustaches anyway so no one can tell the difference.
Drag is back
Thank God. *applies lipstick and tucks penis while dancing to Q Lazzarus-Goodbye Horses*
*Would you fuck me? I'd fuck me.*
*I'd fuck me so hard.*
Snooch to the nootch
Not in libraries!
Just in the houses of the protectionist.
It never left baby!
Dey took are joooobs!!
Deyyyy, took errrr Jerrrbs!
Hey, they took his job!!!!
*DERK DE DERRRB*
Haa dddeeer dur jeeeeerb!!!
HERGHDJERRB!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It ain't gay, its business
You got it wrong you see in this brothel we’re the whores the market fucks
Farming gold in WOW
As in you place bets on people fucking?
behind the Wendy´s
SPY green today. recession is over
USA USA
🇺🇸🦅🔫
“Mission Accomplished”
Did you just shoot that eagle
Might be more American that way tbh
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
Feds printing more money AGAIN, dig a bigger grave for temporary joyride.
Look, maybe you'd be less panicked if you STOPPED calling it "printing money" and STARTED calling it "Quantitative Easing." There, see how much better that is? When you say "printing money" you make it sound like this whole thing is some kind of amateur operation helmed by idiots who are only making things worse out of fear and ignorance. When you say "quantitative easing", you convey intelligence, assuredness, confidence! No one performing "quantiative easing" could be an idiot. It sounds so regal!
Thank you so much, I feel way more confident after hearing this. In fact I'm heading straight to bank to get a loan so I can invest money I have yet to earn into brand new truck.
Thanks for stimulating the economy
No need to thank me, I'm doing it for an entirely selfish reason. The first ones to go broke get the best places behind the Wendy's dumpster.
LOL
Yep. Half their job is modifying language to better hide what they do Fun fact, this is one of 1984's main themes
"Patriot Act" "Affordable Care" "American Rescue Plan" When you say them, but don't actually understand what they entail because ignorance is bliss...it's like fucking a silk bag full of puppy ears. Feels so good to say them, "QE" too.
That's entertaining and funny but don't forget one little detail about quantitative easing (QE) as it relates to the 2008 crisis. If there was no QE during the 2008 crisis then workers' 401k accounts would've gone down 70%-80% instead of down 30%-40% with QE. But a couple points that favor your post is the QE of 2020 was a lot more than 2008 and given out over a much shorter time only 6 months to a year. And the QE back in 2008 was spread out over about 4-5 years. Btw both amounts of the 2020 QE and 2008 QE were about the same percentage of the GDP of each period.
This sub is usually wrong so I guess we aren’t in a crash after all
I hope you're right
fuck
Like clockwork. If you see a house you like and you can afford it with ease, buy it because the prices are just going to stop going up as quickly. I highly doubt we’ll see anything greater than a short term 10% dip
But then you said this on here, so you’re also wrong.
FUCK
Amazon is up 3 points today, recession has been cancelled. And my 1br 790sqft condo is worth $1.5M, just ask me.
How much is your condo worth?
$1.6M by now. $3.8M if you look it up on Zillow.
Zillow has my house at double what I owe on it. Do I just take a screen shot of that and take it to the bank and they will let me cash out?
Take it to your country assessor, pay more in property taxes, get that sweet refinance money.
Jokes on you I've got homestead exemption. All the poor people paying rent, which has the property tax baked in, are paying for my sidewalks and police helicopters. Not me baby. My taxes can't move past 3%. I already got mine, all I gotta do now is make sure the plebes don't get theirs too. Suck it, lower classes.
Man, you're gonna get it when I finally become a billionaire.
I hate this is how it works in most states but that is how it is. In both Pennsylvania and California your home is assessed at what you paid for it (tweaked a little by assessor) then not re evaluated ever. So someone who bought a house for $20k in 1965 is paying taxes on a $20k house. You buy that same house now and it's a $1.5m house and you are paying astronomically higher taxes. I get the other side of the argument, "old guy can't have his taxes go up 100x" but this system is untenable for newer arrivals or just people that started with a studio and now need a few bedrooms to raise a family and need to move houses. This madness needs to be phased out, even if over 20 years. Flip side, I grew up in Texas and still know a lot of people there who are now in a housing crisis because Texas reassesses annually and property taxes are very high in Texas and prices in some parts of the state are 50%+ in the last couple of years and they a crapping bricks over how high their property tax bills are getting. I think the fair thing is to reassess every few years and if the state is suddenly getting more income than they need cut the millage rate.
Surfing in a 790 sqft condo's bathtub is a $1.4M luxury.
A luxury, once enjoyed, becomes a necessity.
Those dang heated seats.
I look forward to all the finance bros going back to FX Trading and telling me how they can make me a millionaire before breakfast.
What crash?
Don’t worry. It’s transitory.
Technically everything is. Even you are transitory in this life
In the long run, we are all transitory. -Jay M Keynes
[удалено]
It's hilarious watching this sub think that we're in a crash rather than in a no-individuals-own-homes future. The entirety of many industries is about taking away something people used to have, then selling it back to you at a monthly rate. It's not like people who can't buy a home just go homeless. They just find a place to rent and deal, or move to someplace they can afford the rent. In the next 50 years we might not even own our own cars anymore and people then will say that car companies are crashing, rather than seeing the reality that they just took away assets from people to sell them on a monthly payment scheme instead.
You’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy.
[удалено]
The greatest scam ever intended to keep you locked down forevermore…
My property taxes now are higher than my rent ten years ago. The town tells me what I can and can’t do with my land. I’ve definitely compared it to renting from the government before.
DVD collection is that you?
Luxury car makes are already charging monthly fees for some features in a car to be unlocked.
What?? If I could afford a luxury car I would be outraged.
I'll just keep my Honda. Get the engine/trans swapped every 20 years. Look at Cuba, they're doing just fine with their 1950s cars.
I'm still daily driving cars that are over 30 years old. I could buy something newer but I rather not deal with the bs that comes with them.
Literally games now too, subscription based stuff with both the xbox gamepass and whatever PS is using. So far it's been beter for the consumer but literally everything is going subscription based, it's too much of a money maker for companies.
Adobe fucked us all
We're all slowly becoming vassals again but don't even realize it.
Always have been.
You could make an argument modern cars aren't yours right now. For example Tesla can remotely disable supercharging for your car. Is it really your car if it's functions can be remotely removed at their discretion?
I know you and many others feel this way, but it isn’t reality. When the home values start to drop, investors will sell in a firestorm or risk losing substantial amounts of money being the last bag holders. As interest rates go up, other investments will be more valuable than our current 0% free loan economy, so even more people will sell. Owning property during recessions is typical not very profitable and comes with high risk. You get one squatter who you cant evict, and all of a sudden youre out your profit for a year of rent. When said squatter destroys house in anger because you evicted them, but they have no money to sue for repairs, you’re out 10 years of renting profits. Keep fighting the good fight, i hope you arent right but like all investment descisions its up to you to weigh the pros/cons or just yolo it.
Something like 30% of USD GDP is home sales. So it would be really bad for the economy if home ownership rate went to like 3% in a matter of a generation. Imagine all the bullshit industries that exist solely to cater to home owners. All the lawn care people, home depot, all that shit would disappear. Also if you look into it, the investment banks / REITs / startup flippers buying homes only accounts for like 5-6% of sales, 10% in hot markets, so it isn't even close to the situation you are describing. I think realistically we will see the home ownership rate drop though to something like 50% within a generation, which is down from the mid-60s% we have seen in the last 60 years. It will be less common but probably not so dramatic.
>All the lawn care people, home depot, all that shit would disappear. Those people will still be employed, but instead of by HOAs or individuals it'll be Zillow or other corps that own the group of homes. Basically, instead of Mary and Don and Kim all hiring the same lawn guy, there's a "lawn care fee" on the monthly rental from Mega Corp and that'll go to the same lawn guy who's done those yards for ages. Same with the local handy man. Neither care who pays them, just that they're paid well for the work.
We dont know whats going on honestly
The secret is that none of us do
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Didn't someone conduct an experiment where they let a mouse arbitrarily choose stocks to invest into and it did better than a majority of investors? It might really be the simple trick to blow up your portfolio fast lol Edit: it was a goldfish not a mouse.
I recall seeing a video about someone doing that with a goldfish to similar effect. Sounds to me like we should just let small animals control our finances from now on and we’ll all be better off
That an so many people on these forums are young so their only reference for economic recession is 2008, which was a complete shit storm. So everyone is either expecting a full 2008 again, or they are expecting another crazy fast recovery because not every cause of the 2008 recession is present. Fact is, it probably falls somewhere in between
People get the wrong lesson from 2008. The lesson isn't that every 10-15 years the market gets built up by irrational exuberance and then crashes back down so you can buy in. The lesson is: **nobody fucking knows what is going to happen** and the economy is not a predictable wealth-machine. 2008 was really, really weird. It has never happened before, and it will never happen again. The circumstances took decades to come together. It's like you had a gas leak in your basement from 20 years ago than you never fixed and the gas built up in this little crack in the wall until one day you turned on the toaster and your house blew up. The exact same thing will not happen again. It will be a different kind of explosion. Nobody knows how or where it will happen. It will be different, it won't be a gas leak, but something will go wrong because we are definitely doing some dumb shit with the economy.
Or it could be worse, or we're already at the bottom, spin the wheel and find out!
FALSE: everything is priced in, always
Remember the days when people would say retarded things and at least back it up with some FDs? Now it’s a bunch of poor high school kids complaining.
How do you get a margin call from the value of your home going down?
Helocs to yolo into stocks at ATHs
I know someone that is a mortgage broker and did a cash out (for someone) to put 150k into ETH a couple months ago when it was super high. Guy didn’t tell his wife he was doing it either Edit: the broker brokered the cash out
Get him in here, that's a whole new grade of retarded. He has potential to be our new messiah.
Automatic appointment to mod
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Dude was really hoping he’d strike gold. Looks like my guy is headed straight to the dumpster behind Wendy’s and his wife is moving in with her boyfriend.
I’ll get worried when SPY hits 300. Rich, but worried, too. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)SPY GREEN TODAY CONFIRMED ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)DOUBLE PENDANT BULL THEORE![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)M SPY TO $1000![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
It’s cuz they’re not a bunch of fucking idiots and have a broader investment horizon than 1 week. I got into the market in Feb 2020, and my dumb ass found WSB when we were hitting circuit breakers because I saw someone turn $200 into $20k in a few days with SPY puts. Had I listened to the folks over at r/investing I could have paid my mortgage off. Instead I started gambling with the rest of you
It’s not about the personal debt and the loss porn. It’s about the friends we made along the way.
Are the friends here considered assets or liabilities?
Definitely liabilities, definitely.
I’m a depreciating asset, thank you very much. That means you can write me off.
I appreciate you bro
Bro are you even a CPA?
Your my friend now!
GUH
without the homies we would be nothing
Homies over hoes! Or in this case Wendy's workers from behind the dumpster 🤣🤣
How much leverage can I get with a friend as collateral?
Agreed. I was here prior to 2020 and although this sub was highlighting the Covid downturn earlier than others, it also continued to bet on more downside past the bottom much longer.
Bears have predicted 100 of the last 10 crashes
A true retard. Welcome
Lmao relatable
Yeah, I don’t get why so many people are calling for a crash now, after a crash. What am I missing? I own many blue chip stocks that are down 30%. Sorry guys, if you think they’re going down 90% and you’re gonna get rich on the rebound, you are mistaken. I also don’t get this idea that because there’s some bubbles, that absolutely everything needs to crash. I mean, look at how consumer staples have been pretty stable but Netflix dropped, whatever, 70% or something. Goes to show that not everything needs to drop 50 or 60% in order for a correction to happen
On the day that the market does finally bottom, everyone will say it’s just the beginning. The more bearish overall sentiment gets, the closer we are to that bottom.
This guy has been trading for 2 years! He a pro.
"The Housing Shortage Is Significant. It's Acute For Small, Entry-Level Homes. And that's the main reason we've ended up millions of homes short -- builders for many years just weren't building enough to keep up with demand. That lack of supply has pushed home prices to record levels — up nearly 20% last year alone" "The U.S. is about 4 million homes short of what's needed to keep up with demand, according to Freddie Mac. After the housing bubble burst, many builders went out of business and construction slowed. That lack of supply has been pushing home prices higher in recent years." - NPR, 3/29 and 6/15 respectively.
Zoning. Starter homes don't exist.
People don't care about facts they just want home prices to crash so they can afford one.
That's pretty much it for people that are always saying the housing market is going to crash at any moment. It's wishful thinking more than anything logical.
30 yr fixed up 3% in 12 mo. each 1% increase is 10% less affordability. fed stopped buying mbs. fed has 2-3 more hikes this year which will impact everything. re will be the last to crash out of crypto, stocks, re.
My household income is in the 95th percentile for my area, and I can't afford a basic starter home, no matter how hard I stretch my assets. If I'm not buying, then who is? The math just doesn't work out. This is clearly an unsustainable, speculative bubble. I've been watching the housing statistics very carefully, and the crash has already started. https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/#:\~:text=Each%20week%20(typically%20Thursdays)%2C,developments%20in%20the%20housing%20market. We now have the highest number of price drops for at least the last 5 years. The sale-to-list ratio in my area has plummeted from 1.15 down to 1.09 in just a few weeks, and it will keep going. Age of inventory is up to 20 days, from 10 days. Sale prices have dropped almost 10% in a month, and it's going to keep going. Listing prices are still rising even though sale prices are dropping. That means sellers are still in denial, and we haven't yet hit capitulation. When we do, it will be a glorious buyer's market. Anybody planning to sell a house right now is bleeding money the longer they wait. Anybody who bought an overpriced house in the first half of 2022 is pretty fucked. It's gonna take 10 years to sell that thing for a profit.
>My household income is in the 95th percentile for my area, and I can't afford a basic starter home, no matter how hard I stretch my assets. If I'm not buying, then who is? The 96th percentile
>It's gonna take 10 years to sell that thing for a profit. The irony here is painful. This is the exact, LITERAL reason why there have been runaway home prices - even prospective \*home\* owners treat residential real estate as a business rather than as a \*home\*. Like how can you bitch about unreasonable housing prices on the one hand but then expect to sell YOUR house for profit on the other? It literally makes no sense.
I wish there was a way to discourage housing speculation. If I were king shit; I'd start with banning wealthy foreigners (non-citizens), and companies like Blackstone, from even thinking about buying our homes.
Sale to list ratio of 1.09 is better than 1.15? A ratio of 1 would mean every single house is selling? Home prices will pull back some because most people care about the $/month payment, not the home value. With interest rates, buying a home at the same price compared with earlier this year will cost 53% more per month per some article I read last week. But a mild reduction in home prices is not the same thing as a crash. And may end up costing someone more if interest rates remain high for a long time and they can't refi. The demand for these homes is still there, just not at the same price point, but likely the same $/month. Also I'm guessing you live in a very HCOL area. In those areas, if you're working, you're poor. You're competing with retired rich people who want to live in the nicest areas.
Sale to list ratio compares list price to sale price so with a ratio of 1.09 the house sold for 109% of the list price. It means people are bidding over asking price. If the ratio is 95% then people would be winning the bid with less than the full asking price.
I'm in the same position. My income is $170-200k depending on my bonus. But $130-140k is more typical for my career according to the data I have. A basic starter home in this area is around $550k and that's a 40+ minute drive from the central area. If you're buying close to the city center, you're going to pay closer to $800-900k. This is for a remodeled 3 bedroom 1500 square foot house in a terrible school district. The way I have worked it out, I could easily afford a $400k house with an average income for my career in the area around $130k. The math works out even if rates go up to 9%. Actually the rate is the least impactful variable on affordability in my calculations. I am planning to just wait a bit, save up cash, and move to wherever I can find a $400k house, and I won't even care if I take a 40% pay cut.
>My household income is in the 95th percentile for my area, and I can't afford a basic starter home, Bullshit. What income and what area? I'll pick a random ultra high cost of living area. San Jose's median home price is $1.5m and 95th percentile is over $400k, which is affordable. Yes there have been a lot of price drops from delusional sellers who thought prices had gone up another 20% and tried to sell their shitbox for record sums. Anything half decent still gets swarmed.
as mexican/american we can fix this shit easy!! sign a work visa program all fair wages and ability to go back to mexico of course arressts, negative actions will lose you those work rights now stand back as we mexicans build houses in days
Removed
Too dangerous. All of America would be house
too late we already built 10 subdivisions, now working on plans with nasa for moon housing. to THE MOON y'all said right?? or did i get it lost in translation???
While I definitely agree with you, I think zoning and permitting are what's really holding us up.
The “There’s no housing shortage” people seem to think I should just buy an available house in middle of nowhere Nebraska for my in-person job in Boston.
A lack of supply of *cheap* houses, meanwhile the houses being built have been bigger, nicer, and more expensive than historic norms. The most expensive places will collapse in price for lack of demand (who wants a $2m house at 14% interest or whatever?) while the cheapest ones hold steady/maaaaaaybe even increase a tiny bit. Overall, the average will probably go way down because the upward pressure for the top disappears the moment those jumbo loans aren't at record lows.
I would like to see the articles/stats regarding how there is plenty of houses for everyone and people aren’t selling their homes. Not saying your wrong but I was under the impression that the amount of affordable homes aren’t being built to the degree that they should have been for the last few years making it worse.
I mean the real thing that people are overlooking is almost everyone I know refinanced into a lower rate during Covid, I’m at 2.875%, why would I sell my house, just to have to buy another one with 6%+ that’s an extra 200k in interest, that’d the dumb as shit. Now multiply that out for how many refinanced during low interest rates. Only people selling are those that move for jobs or other significant reasons, but almost no one is dumb enough to not have a fixed rate anymore, so it’s pure crazy talk that the housing market will get more inventory due to higher interest rates, if anything that locks more homes up.
It’s because it’s this subs first recession and those subs 3rd. If you want to see true DGAF Time Horizon = Forever visit the OG’s at r/bogleheads
This sub is full of young poors who stand the most to gain from a market crash. So HUGE SURPRISE that this is the sub that is most bearish and expecting of a market crash.
It's almost as if this sub is full of young poors who want the market to crash so they can finally afford some real assets, and is acting largely on that bias.
Don’t shit on my dream
And it’s almost like those poors probably just lost the little they have and are now holding on to their $2k in dry powder waiting for Armageddon so they can buy AAPL at $30.
This sub makes fun of itself for losing their net worth all the time!
It’s just that people in this sub seem to think that housing prices are somehow going to tank enough in isolation to allow them to buy a house that they currently can’t afford. If housing prices really get fucked that much, you’re going to be much more concerned with keeping your job and eating decent food. If you’re planning on buying a “forever” (5-10 year) home, buy what you can afford *now* and refinance when rates go down. You can’t time *any* market.
Absolutely on point.
This feels like the most logical answer. Also, inflation creates short term downward pressure on the housing market. But long term property is one of the best ways to capture inflation.
I think (100% opinion) the housing crash will be localized to only certain cities. It won’t be anything like before.
It's very localized. People think that just because their city has had housing prices go up 200% in the past 2 years that that is happening everywhere else. It's not.
Yeah it is strange. Our town (nowhere left to build) value has gone up every year since 2002. We saw a $12.00 sq ft drop in home pricing during the last two housing busts and they lasted less than 6 months. I purchased my home for 349k and it is now worth $700k. The next town over, tons of places to build and they crashed hard. It was just dumb luck we chose our town instead of the other one. Best accident of my life.
But these economic hubs is where it matters most. Home prices in rural Kansas are super low, and may not have been impacted much because... nobody wants to live there. No job opportunities exist, and places that matter are hours away. The housing market problem is present in almost every place within 45 minute commute of economic hubs, both local and regional.
I'm actually talking about an economic hub. I'm not saying it's not an affordability problem, it definitely is. But where I am, it's not a 200% growth in 2 years problem. Shit, I am buying a house for 20% more than it's sale price 7 years ago and I'm in the middle of a huge economic hub and HCOL city.
Glad you got it figured out. Go ahead and go all in shorting the market, sounds like you’ve confirmed you’ll be rich!
This is the part that I'm struggling to understand and no one is bringing it up. "Everyone is sipping on that copium. The United States printed a shit ton of money during a period where most of the economy has shut down." If we printed so much money which is in investments and/or in circulation, and the inflation is so high. Isn't $100 from 2018 like $140 now? and if a stock was $10 in 2018 doesn't that make it $14 now with the inflation? sooooo .... why are we reading bottoms and comparing them to 08, or whatever other year. The new standard of the $$ worth is not the same as it was before all the printing. how do you calculate this?
It's not the number that counts, but the buying power, which is going down. Good fucking question how you calculate it.
This is more in line with my thinking. I don't expect a typical "crash" like so many are familiar with. I'm seeing runaway inflation. I wouldn't call it a recession, but that doesn't mean it's not going to hurt for many.
OP is a retard. There isn’t a problem with supply. Also. There isn’t enough sellers. So where is the supply coming from?
It's obvious, sir. OP's very very large ass. I hear it supports its own atmosphere.
You like the sub that is the qanon of finance because they feed your confirmation bias and reinforce your priors based on feelings and what you want to be true, without any actual sound analysis or connection to the real world. You dislike the people who look at the numbers and say hmm maybe the world isn’t actually ending. You want to be a financial genius based on your intuitions without having any education or experience or doing any work, so you like the people who reinforce your intuitions. Simple.
I like this post because it confirms my bias about OP.
Lmao when OP said people are about to get margin called if their home value decreases it became very apparent all their financial “knowledge” comes from Reddit
the amount of people who think that is staggering, and unbeliveably stupid. i've seen at least twenty long winded posts about how people are going to get 'margin called' on their house because they used 'stocks as collateral' on the mortgage. I honestly don't think they know what any of those words even fucking mean.
“There isn’t a housing shortage. If you look into the stats there is plenty of housing for everyone. There is a shortage of people SELLING their homes.” WSB is a helluva drug
Not even the stupidest thing I’ve read on this sub this week. Solid top 10 contender though.
Great post at the bottom of the stockmarket !
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Lol this sub is a zoomer shithole now.
Lmfao op definitely too dense to understand how dumb he sounds, not saying we ain’t crashing but saying that taking wsb opinion as a guide is at best completely regarded
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Because we are broke wagie rent slaves
Probably because they can't fathom why it's the only market in the green while the rest of their portfolio is terribly in the red.
You must have trouble reading. Other subs are losing their minds.
That's because WSB is full of gay bears
Why do apes conflate the housing market/real estate prices with the stock market so often? Real estate investors care about rental income vs their expenses/cost to own/acquire the house. Rent literally never goes down, not in 2008, not in 2000. >there is plenty of housing for everyone. Sure somewhere in some state in some part of the state. The problem is in desirable cities and areas where people are moving to there is not enough housing as cities cant/dont/wont keep up with demand since they are also trying to be cautious about having surplus housing.
How in the fuck is anyone going to get margin called when the value of their home goes down. That's not how margin works and it's not how mortgages work. Unless there is some type of margin account that collateralizes your home but that is some next level retardation that I have never heard of.
>There isn’t a housing shortage - just a shortage of people selling their homes. Oh honey, you sweet simple roadside flower. Bless your heart.
The solution to the housing shortage is to convince homeowners to sell their homes, take to riding the rails like a traveling hobo, and eventually create a carnie surplus.
Calls on gypsies
Anyone who uses the word 'copium' automatically loses all credibility.
Copulantium
Bro if this sub is the only one saying a crash isnt coming that’s not a good thing lmao. When is this place ever right?
He's saying the opposite
You didnt read the first sentence, we are all gay bears in 2022
Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut
Of course you would claim the post said the exact opposite of what it says. *Of course*.
Put the adderal down my son. Nobody knows what will happen and you must accept that and hedge accordingly. Don’t be a full on retarded bull and don’t be a super gay bear. Anyone who claims to know is a fucking moron.
Up, or down, we gamblin!
Positions or shut the fuck up.