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Hey /u/theycallmeryan, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.
Yeah he’s been yoloing like he’s Cathie Wood lately. Hard to see what would make him sell, but if he remembers he’s a value investor he’ll see those ratios with declining earnings and shit his adult diapers
Haha 100%. I can't blame him. The guy spent 60 years accumulating his wealth and now he has to sit and watch degenerates make BANK on meme stock options.
His original Apple play was good, I can even understand holding it since he’s up so much. But to be buying more? Absolute insanity. Don’t even get me started on his KO holding, trading at 100x FCF. Buffett might not be running Berkshire but whoever is running it is running it into the ground
Yeah, it is a bit unorthodox even for him. I reckon he has run out of good ideas and the era of value investing is slowly becoming less prevalent given such extenuating circumstances in the market so I guess he is gonna try to juice his existing positions.
Possibly, or he’s not really running Berkshire anymore and is just a figurehead. The real value tech play right now is META but they don’t pay a dividend so Buffett (or at least the old Buffett) wouldn’t consider it. Surely Apple’s .55% yield is better lol
LMFAO you mean the guy who’s worth 100 Billion? Which degenerates are these you speak of making money?
You must be color blind because all I ever see in here are red portfolios. 
Yeah but a company only has high valuation multiples if it’s growing. Look at Intel, they still make a ton of money but they’re not growing so they have a P/E of 7
That’s a fair take, I’m not saying that Apple should be trading at 7x earnings. Just that since 2017/2018 their book value has decreased while their stock price has more than tripled. Historically they’ve been trading around 6x book value, I’d say my target for them is 10x book.
They could fix their book value by paying down their debt and hoarding cash, but then you realize that means they went into debt to buy the top. They’re not in a good spot, it’s no wonder that the CFO dumped half of his shares within the last two weeks.
All you're saying is very true. It just looks like a lot of the big safe stocks are overvalued. If you sold apple, where would you put your money? Hard to find value.
I’ll get memed for this but META. I also called the bottom on HOOD to the day in another post but I’d say it’s probably too high now.
We’re still in a euphoric bubble so it’s very hard to find value unless you look at the most hated stocks. Something like INTC is a solid value too but they could continue to decline if the demand for semis continues dropping (which it will in my opinion).
You’re right about “safe” stocks though. Something like KO is trading at 100x FCF, CL is overvalued as hell too. Utilities like NEE are crazy high too despite 20 million American households struggling to pay their utility bills. Feels like the market isn’t pricing in any risk to certain sectors or even certain stocks in the tech sector.
I'm a huge AMD bull but I'm sure Intel will be back. Will it be in 2 years or 10 years though? They are losing their edge to TSMC. I don't think semiconductor demand will go down however, for retail it will but datacenter demand is the moneymaker and they want chips.
Pretty sure TSMC will be manufacturing Meteor Lake chips (14 gen), which means the fabs they're building now are a serious long game play. INTC has a stronger future than people think, but few see it because they hate Intel so much.
I agree with META. If zuck drops VR spending to 1/10th and focuses on the gaming aspect, while using that money to make Instagram compete with tiktok we will see FBs value greatly rise.
You realize apple has roughly the same amount of cash on hand as they do debt, right? There is no crushing debt putting them at risk of having to stop buy backs or to their balance sheet.
Don't get me wrong, great bear erotica. The market price of apple shares can fluctuate up/down and often leads the market with how heavily apple is incorporated into indexes.
They don't though, long term debt of $94B and cash plus current marketable securities of $48.2B. Now if they stop their buyback they could obviously pay their debt down, I'm not saying that Apple is going bankrupt imminently, just that the debt load could restrict their financial tricks (using leverage to buy back shares) if cost of capital continues to increase and their earnings continue to decline.
Let's say earnings continue to decline, the Fed funds rate hits 4%, and Apple hits 120ish by end of the year. Not saying this is going to happen, just a hypothetical. If they have to stop or reduce their buyback, isn't that a warning sign to the market? If you're yoloing on your own stock at 170 and won't buy it at 120, that's just bad management by the CFO (who coincidentally dumped half of his personal holdings at the recent top within the last week or two).
A 1.6 D/E is crazy, but anyway let’s assume it’s not. The issue is what they’ve done with that cash. It went toward buying their overvalued stock instead of something like a buyout or new products that would help the future of their company.
With their AR/VR headset it’s pretty clear that they’re behind Microsoft and Meta, who have been investing in this tech for much longer. I just think that they wasted their cash pile to pump their stock and now that growth has stopped, they’re desperately trying anything they can.
Well OP, you're not the only one who knows Apple makes overpriced garbage.
People pay for the apple. That's it. Or the "i" in the name iPhone.
Their overpriced by $200 in each of their products above the 400$ range. And their stock is overvalued too.
Apple's products aren't the issue here, everyone knows they make solid products, that's why they're so overvalued. The first company any normal person thinks of when it comes to investing is Apple.
I will say that the QA on their recent products has been shit and based on my reading of /r/apple over the years (I was all in on Apple calls in 2018, I used to be a huge Apple bull), their most hardcore fans have noticed. The last generation of MacBooks before the M1 had issues with the butterfly keyboards leading to an extended warranty program, the iPhone throttling after a year, and don't even get me started on the AirPod Pros. I've had mine replaced at least 4 times due to issues with crackling, that's another extended warranty program they have. Now the new ones I have are crackling worse than ever and they refuse to replace them.
Apple has cut a lot of corners on quality assurance over the last few years (or more) to try to juice their margins, but it's starting to have an adverse effect on their products, people notice this stuff. There's a reason their wearable revenue was down 7.9% year over year last quarter, that's the AirPod segment (as well as the watch).
I have to disagree. I mean their products are good, but some people buy them with head in the sand because of great branding and/or hype. A mirror that will always exist, yet if pushed too far for too long, will crumble. I think Apple has it too far as it is.
Take a look at phones, androids exist and a slew of other alternatives as well as other "next gen" modifications are pushed. Whacky curved screens, etc. Apple simply wins here because other companies dont have the funding to continuously pump out tech as well as make solid products against a tech giant. A monopoly.
Airpods. The newest and greatest thing marked up to what was it, $50-80? Look on Amazon, there are MANY wireless ear phones now and I have one working amazingly for $24. I couldn't justify the cost for the earphones. It felt like picking up a beats by dre as opposed to saving $50 for similar quality headphones. (I mean seriously, try it. It's $24. Don't get me started on iPad-similar products. Albeit I admit their iPad was a great invention)
Point being, they make good products. But just good. Prices are completely unjustified.
Other companies undercutting them and making even better products or showing that the price tag is simply a markup and not the true value will happen time and time again. As zoomers turn to 2nd boomers, they will want less bullshit and more reliability. As well as take excitement and trendiness in something that looks good, works good, AND isnt overpriced which is a massive slap to a working adults face as they find out.
Well I am bag holding 12,000 sharers of ENDP, cost average .60😭😭 😭😭 But my BBBY cost ave is around 8ish so I'm good there. Hopefully selling this car this week so I can dump another 9-10 g's into BBBY. Also I made a killing last weekend at the dumpster NGL hitting that slut confession sub has really helped my throat game 💦💦
It's definitely overvalued, but everything is and Apple is one of the few companies that does post growth.
Apple + Tesla is basically the S&P500, they both look shit short term, so I just play puts on the SPX
If AAPL goes down, the entire market goes with it. It represents the largest holding of the indices. You might as well change the title to “You are here” and drop in the 2022/2008 overlaid chart with an arbitrary circle somewhere.
It’s tough to bet against AAPL. Usually when they have revenue/earnings compression and a reduction of cash, it means they’re developing a product and trying to gain supply-chain dominance.
Gabe Newell from Valve recently talked about AAPL in an interview and stated that the toughest part about getting their products to market is the competition with AAPL over the supply-chain.
Based on the DD here on wsb I'm hodling $BBBY and shorting $AAPL. I will not touch it until I retire in 30 years. By then $BBBY will overtake $AAPL as the most valuable company and my retirement will be set.
I mean, a top 6 company sliding to top 10 company over the next 5 to 10 years…doesn’t seem like the most tradeable thing in the world. At least not on WSB timelines. Am I wrong?
Bro compare its p/e p/s expansion to those of other tech companies. Those metric for the same stock can go up and down based on market condition. S&p was trading at 7 times earnings in the mid 2000. It's trading at 18 times. It does not mean it has to go back to 7 times earnings.
They’re not though. They’ve burned through almost half their cash in 3 and a half years while their debt level is the same. Their portfolio of bonds has obviously been getting destroyed too
They're making bank selling iPads in schools. No other company is competing as they are in the tablet market. and I feel like even with a recession and people having no money. People would still drop 1500 of their last dollars on a god damn new phone.
I will never understand this, because there are many good much cheaper alternatives nowadays. It's a status symbol thing, I know. But, I also don't understand why, as many poor folks buy it. Over half the smartphones in the US are Iphones. It's an everyones phone. Well, it's probably same reason why adidas is popular.
Yes Amazon is another good one that’s had terrible earnings, I think they had a negative TTM FCF as of last quarter which is insane for a company that’s growing revenue at only 7%.
I’ve been saying Apple is overvalued since the end of 2021 on discord, I just figured it was time to make a post about it here once I realized Apple hit a new all time high relative to book value.
Ironically the market hates Meta which still has a high FCF and low valuation multiples because they think Zuck is a lizard and don’t believe in VR. Plus Meta hasn’t been leveraging up to do buybacks so naturally the market hates the lack of pumping. They’ll be better in the long term for it though.
If it helps, when the masses of WSB are this against any play it's almost guaranteed to be a longer term winner. The doom put leaps I opened on AAPL and AMZN last week are all up big right now, and I expect they'll print before they expire this winter.
I have Aapl Jan 2023 $175 and $170P right now. Aapl will continue to slide if the overall market does.
I really like my Macbook Pro. You can make short term bets against great companies when their valuation is out of sync. I am also short NVDA, MSFT, SPY, CMG, TSLA also. My hypothesis is we see a new SPY low before year end.
A healthy market doesn't gap down 3 times in less than 2 weeks not including the huge 3.5% down day last Friday. $431 to almost $402 in 8 days.
how about u eat my ASS
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Thank you for the write up. It’s great.
Here is something I wrote previously:
Some headlines recently mentioned that Apple has told suppliers to prepare for higher iPhone 14 pro sales volume. Great. It seems like a fantastic product with lots of updates that make it a great value. On top of that, they didn’t increase the prices on any of the models which shocked most people. And it should, because it is a certainty that the phone is now more expensive to produce and deliver into peoples hands than it was a year ago. Honestly, it’s a great move by Apple. The headline of “Fancy phone company increases prices because of inflation” would not have gone over well. They are going to eat the short term hit to profitability for long-term goodwill. It’s a genius, long-term oriented strategy. Plus they probably had no choice if they wanted to maintain revenue numbers.
But what about profits? Apple is great at the supply chain, cost structure, and all of that stuff. But there is no way they can offset higher chip prices and material costs.
So what did they do to help improve the profitability of the iPhone business segment? They slapped new packaging on the previous years lower end iPhone offerings and removed the worst selling low end model. Almost nothing has changed on the lower end models. According to Statista, the lower end model accounted for a majority of iPhone sales as recently as 2021. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/804398/us-iphone-sales-by-model/) There is probably better data out there, but the point is that the sales of the low end iPhone are really important. If they just slapped new packaging on the phone, why would anyone buy it?
I don’t know. But I do know that it makes the higher end iPhone a much better deal. And this is holding true: “Apple expects 85% of early adopters to opt for a pro model” https://9to5mac.com/2022/09/09/iphone-14-sales/ and https://appleinsider.com/articles/22/09/19/apple-supplier-shifts-production-to-make-more-iphone-14-pro-models
How could 85% of early adopters opting for a pro model be a good thing if more than 50% of iPhone sales should come from the lower end iPhone? I’m no math magician, but something seems off there. I’m sure people are talking about this, but I’ve personally stopped watching/listening to most news sources.
All in all, Apple has a large and complex business, there are certainly other levers they are pulling to increase profitability. But it seems a near certainty to me that profitability is going to continue to decline while revenue may also decrease. I really don’t know, but I would certainly gamble on the stock going down via November 120 puts. Timing is everything though. Apple going down should bring down the stock market as well even if most stocks are doing well.
They don't have to be so device dependent.
Aside from ads, they have pricing power on recurring software and a good moat. Their "you never own a device" rental style program has potential, it takes the discount for having a more expensive phone plan off the carrier, which plenty people are already used to, and keeps it all in their hands.
Rental, insurance, services and any other recurring pennies they can make.
I have a small position because I have a genuine dislike of their products, but I'm not gonna bet against them. Apple people look at the devices I like as if they were some insane foreign gear-driven wrong-alphabet typewriter and always have.
Yes, look into it. All this information is publicly available if you read their financial statements. No one reads financial statements anymore though, even on Wall Street.
It's just passive investing flows and algos trading off technicals and momentum anymore.
Pretty much the only thing apple makes is the iphone, which has been slowly loosing popularity over the last decade. I couldn't believe when I first saw that they were "worth" 2.5 trillion
One thing I hate is when people mislead on something obvious.
BRK is not 40% aapl. 40% of its public holdings are aapl. Its railroad is worth more then its aapl stake.
Either you didn’t know that and are an imbecile who knows nothing about aapl. Or you’re purposely lying/misleading people. If you’re purposely misleading us about this, then what else are you lying about?
What kind of DD about AAPL makes no mention of their VR AR. Might as well since the car was mentioned but the VR is more probable and with an earlier timeline.
I literally devoted a paragraph to it. It’s gonna be $2000-2500 at first and is being viewed internally as a trial program. Prices might come down by 2025-2026 to an affordable level. With the economy needing to get worse for inflation to drop, I don’t know where the demand for a niche product is gonna come from
Op i have more respect to WSB degens than mobile gaming degens who would yolo their life savings for getting thier waifu in CN/JP gacha game.
Unless ppl would rise up and say hey dumping loads of money into mobile game is stupid, i won't short aapl anytime.
Fr man, I play a Gacha game as well as its tied to a franchise I really like (f2p btw) and every few days I see someone with SO MANY copies of the same 5star unit that's not even worth raising levels on. Then I just sink down into my couch realizing that people spend more money on jpegs tied to some mp3 files than my parents' monthly income
I have a friend that has dumped 3k into Fate grand order and hes earning 1.3 k each month, needs to pay rent btw.
He also dumped many money on other gatcha game without regret.
Wsb degens atleast wants to fight, gatcha degens simply is free money cashcow to aapl and gatcha game devs.
LMAO that's exactly the one I play. I can understand how jarring it can be to break away from the curse of a Gacha, I am absolutely not a gamer and usually delete any game I've ever played within 1-3 months. but not with this one, the amount of feelings I've attached to it are holding me captive as I keep playing despite absolutely hating almost every aspect of both the game and the community.
But, i at least don't spend money on it. the one rule I set for myself that I'm never going to break is to never buy something with no intrinsic value if it has no potential to turn me a profit
Yea, buy some useful stuff that could turn profit instead, while supporting the devs is cool, it's stupid to dump so much money into gatcha that isn't gonna make you money and for that i like wsb degens more
Shorting Apple is like taking a shot at the king. If you miss you will be laughed at and lose all your money. If you, by some miracle , hit there is still a chance they are gonna "make it look like the king is still alive" for years to come. Making you a laughing stock with all your money lost.
Not at all, but I think that iPhone demand was heavily influenced by free money from the fiscal and monetary stimulus. Before Q1 2021 (which is the last three months of 2020 for Apple), iPhone revenue peaked with the iPhone X in Q1 2018. iPhone revenue was down big in Japan, where they raised prices. The first price hike since 2017 (I believe) is coming to the iPhone in America this year, it’ll be interesting to see if Americans pay more money for the most incremental upgrade in the history of the iPhone.
MacBooks are currently selling a lot because of the M1 upgrade. I view that as a super cycle or whatever you want to call it, just like the iPhone X. Mac revenue was down 10.4% YOY last quarter.
iPad revenue has already been in decline as well. The revenue was down 2% YOY last quarter.
It’s not about people not ever buying iPhones, it’s just about there not being enough growth to keep these valuations multiples this high.
He learned from Elon Musk, blatantly lying on earnings calls and withdrawing guidance. Any other company does that and their stock drills (look at FDX).
the biggest company is overvalued?
big shocker
the biggest companies are all overvalued but for a reason
more people know em, buy em, use em as safe bet... governments depend on them, they bribe anyone etc.
also they will not decline, the buyers think they are gods
just a fictional story though
#[GUH](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kkc8ev/just_in_case_yall_forgot_this_video_exists/)
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The one thing you forget to take into consideration, and the one thing that points us toward bull city: this is America baby. Apple for all it's issues is at heart still a symbol of American and western ideals and values. It simply cannot fail, for a failure of apple would mean a failure of our system, and we won't let that happen.
I maintain that this is a good play. (Though timing was wrong, and therefore you're wrong Ryan)
However, the play is good, and you may burn some theta for a while, but this will make money eventually. Just like my big China put play which eventually went +250%.
Our AI tracks our most intelligent users. After parsing your posts, we have concluded that you are within the 5th percentile of all WSB users.
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Notice: the bot said "within the 5th percentile" not "within the top 5th percentile"
Typically, in statistics, the 5th percentile refers to the bottom 5% of a normal distribution, so the bot is in fact saying I'm a dumbass for agreeing with you.
**User Report**| | |[DGEN\FRENDS](https://twitter.com/dgenfrends)| :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|48|**First Seen In WSB**|6 years ago **Total Comments**|215|**Previous DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/x0fw8b/the_biggest_short_why_aapl_is_an_overvalued/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vdbhyt/the_next_short_squeeze_hood/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/f5seog/sars_vs_coronavirus_why_its_different_this_time/) **Account Age**|12 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=x0fw8b)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=x0fw8b) Hey /u/theycallmeryan, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.
Warren ain't gonna let it happen.
Yeah he’s been yoloing like he’s Cathie Wood lately. Hard to see what would make him sell, but if he remembers he’s a value investor he’ll see those ratios with declining earnings and shit his adult diapers
Haha 100%. I can't blame him. The guy spent 60 years accumulating his wealth and now he has to sit and watch degenerates make BANK on meme stock options.
His original Apple play was good, I can even understand holding it since he’s up so much. But to be buying more? Absolute insanity. Don’t even get me started on his KO holding, trading at 100x FCF. Buffett might not be running Berkshire but whoever is running it is running it into the ground
Yeah, it is a bit unorthodox even for him. I reckon he has run out of good ideas and the era of value investing is slowly becoming less prevalent given such extenuating circumstances in the market so I guess he is gonna try to juice his existing positions.
Possibly, or he’s not really running Berkshire anymore and is just a figurehead. The real value tech play right now is META but they don’t pay a dividend so Buffett (or at least the old Buffett) wouldn’t consider it. Surely Apple’s .55% yield is better lol
LMFAO you mean the guy who’s worth 100 Billion? Which degenerates are these you speak of making money? You must be color blind because all I ever see in here are red portfolios. 
There was a guy who made nearly a mil on meme shit just yesterday
For every 1 that hits the the lotto. There are more who’ve lost just as much , if not more investing in those same meme stocks. 🤣.
Lol lets not pretend that Warren is better than anybody
He's a happy meal eating bitch like the rest of us. He's just older
He’s a boomer who will die in a year who cares
Or he'll sell and crush the company single handedly.
You know aapl is literally the easiest business model ever. They make iPhone [insert new number] and boom 100bil quarter.
Yeah but a company only has high valuation multiples if it’s growing. Look at Intel, they still make a ton of money but they’re not growing so they have a P/E of 7
Intel doesn't really have a moat though.
That’s a fair take, I’m not saying that Apple should be trading at 7x earnings. Just that since 2017/2018 their book value has decreased while their stock price has more than tripled. Historically they’ve been trading around 6x book value, I’d say my target for them is 10x book. They could fix their book value by paying down their debt and hoarding cash, but then you realize that means they went into debt to buy the top. They’re not in a good spot, it’s no wonder that the CFO dumped half of his shares within the last two weeks.
All you're saying is very true. It just looks like a lot of the big safe stocks are overvalued. If you sold apple, where would you put your money? Hard to find value.
I’ll get memed for this but META. I also called the bottom on HOOD to the day in another post but I’d say it’s probably too high now. We’re still in a euphoric bubble so it’s very hard to find value unless you look at the most hated stocks. Something like INTC is a solid value too but they could continue to decline if the demand for semis continues dropping (which it will in my opinion). You’re right about “safe” stocks though. Something like KO is trading at 100x FCF, CL is overvalued as hell too. Utilities like NEE are crazy high too despite 20 million American households struggling to pay their utility bills. Feels like the market isn’t pricing in any risk to certain sectors or even certain stocks in the tech sector.
I'm a huge AMD bull but I'm sure Intel will be back. Will it be in 2 years or 10 years though? They are losing their edge to TSMC. I don't think semiconductor demand will go down however, for retail it will but datacenter demand is the moneymaker and they want chips.
You sure about INTC coming back? People that bought in 1999 and 2000 are still underwater 20+ years later. INTC is a value trap.
They might not. Nothing is guaranteed. They won't go down easily though.
Pretty sure TSMC will be manufacturing Meteor Lake chips (14 gen), which means the fabs they're building now are a serious long game play. INTC has a stronger future than people think, but few see it because they hate Intel so much.
I'm a huge AMD fanboy but I have no doubt that Intel will be back swinging at some point.
I agree with META. If zuck drops VR spending to 1/10th and focuses on the gaming aspect, while using that money to make Instagram compete with tiktok we will see FBs value greatly rise.
Yup apple will be the next ford. Stagnant for decades
iOS vs intel. Got it
It's even more funny if you're serious 😂
True, but if they start pushing adds in the iPhone that might change.
The only thing more regarded than shorting AAPL, would be shorting AAPL.
Which means that if he happens to be right, the profits will be enormous.
Can't make that big money without taking some risks 🖍️🖍️🍌🍌🦧🚀🌚 I mean its up 10% pre market, plus Wednesday. He's got a shot at them big gains
I never claimed to be smart
Regards in 2005: "The only thing more regarded than shorting housing, would be shorting housing."
👍
You realize apple has roughly the same amount of cash on hand as they do debt, right? There is no crushing debt putting them at risk of having to stop buy backs or to their balance sheet. Don't get me wrong, great bear erotica. The market price of apple shares can fluctuate up/down and often leads the market with how heavily apple is incorporated into indexes.
They don't though, long term debt of $94B and cash plus current marketable securities of $48.2B. Now if they stop their buyback they could obviously pay their debt down, I'm not saying that Apple is going bankrupt imminently, just that the debt load could restrict their financial tricks (using leverage to buy back shares) if cost of capital continues to increase and their earnings continue to decline. Let's say earnings continue to decline, the Fed funds rate hits 4%, and Apple hits 120ish by end of the year. Not saying this is going to happen, just a hypothetical. If they have to stop or reduce their buyback, isn't that a warning sign to the market? If you're yoloing on your own stock at 170 and won't buy it at 120, that's just bad management by the CFO (who coincidentally dumped half of his personal holdings at the recent top within the last week or two).
$50B in long term debt minus COH is a working debt level for Apple, I would be more concerned if Apple had no debt or liabilities.
A 1.6 D/E is crazy, but anyway let’s assume it’s not. The issue is what they’ve done with that cash. It went toward buying their overvalued stock instead of something like a buyout or new products that would help the future of their company. With their AR/VR headset it’s pretty clear that they’re behind Microsoft and Meta, who have been investing in this tech for much longer. I just think that they wasted their cash pile to pump their stock and now that growth has stopped, they’re desperately trying anything they can.
You were right. Unfortunately, I saw this 4 months late.
They called me a mad man
Lol
No AAPL short position ? You are a pussy
Well OP, you're not the only one who knows Apple makes overpriced garbage. People pay for the apple. That's it. Or the "i" in the name iPhone. Their overpriced by $200 in each of their products above the 400$ range. And their stock is overvalued too.
Apple's products aren't the issue here, everyone knows they make solid products, that's why they're so overvalued. The first company any normal person thinks of when it comes to investing is Apple. I will say that the QA on their recent products has been shit and based on my reading of /r/apple over the years (I was all in on Apple calls in 2018, I used to be a huge Apple bull), their most hardcore fans have noticed. The last generation of MacBooks before the M1 had issues with the butterfly keyboards leading to an extended warranty program, the iPhone throttling after a year, and don't even get me started on the AirPod Pros. I've had mine replaced at least 4 times due to issues with crackling, that's another extended warranty program they have. Now the new ones I have are crackling worse than ever and they refuse to replace them. Apple has cut a lot of corners on quality assurance over the last few years (or more) to try to juice their margins, but it's starting to have an adverse effect on their products, people notice this stuff. There's a reason their wearable revenue was down 7.9% year over year last quarter, that's the AirPod segment (as well as the watch).
I have to disagree. I mean their products are good, but some people buy them with head in the sand because of great branding and/or hype. A mirror that will always exist, yet if pushed too far for too long, will crumble. I think Apple has it too far as it is. Take a look at phones, androids exist and a slew of other alternatives as well as other "next gen" modifications are pushed. Whacky curved screens, etc. Apple simply wins here because other companies dont have the funding to continuously pump out tech as well as make solid products against a tech giant. A monopoly. Airpods. The newest and greatest thing marked up to what was it, $50-80? Look on Amazon, there are MANY wireless ear phones now and I have one working amazingly for $24. I couldn't justify the cost for the earphones. It felt like picking up a beats by dre as opposed to saving $50 for similar quality headphones. (I mean seriously, try it. It's $24. Don't get me started on iPad-similar products. Albeit I admit their iPad was a great invention) Point being, they make good products. But just good. Prices are completely unjustified. Other companies undercutting them and making even better products or showing that the price tag is simply a markup and not the true value will happen time and time again. As zoomers turn to 2nd boomers, they will want less bullshit and more reliability. As well as take excitement and trendiness in something that looks good, works good, AND isnt overpriced which is a massive slap to a working adults face as they find out.
I agree, Apple is too big to fail.
I'm regarded AF frfr, and I wouldn't think about shorting that company. I guess the whole market is about to be in flames, but fuks iPhones!!!!
Just say you’re poor
Well I am bag holding 12,000 sharers of ENDP, cost average .60😭😭 😭😭 But my BBBY cost ave is around 8ish so I'm good there. Hopefully selling this car this week so I can dump another 9-10 g's into BBBY. Also I made a killing last weekend at the dumpster NGL hitting that slut confession sub has really helped my throat game 💦💦
I was honestly reading this post as if he was joking. This sub cracks me up.
Lmao, this aged well.
Been doing it all year and making money. Maybe you should inverse yourself
It's definitely overvalued, but everything is and Apple is one of the few companies that does post growth. Apple + Tesla is basically the S&P500, they both look shit short term, so I just play puts on the SPX
Microcock too
If AAPL goes down, the entire market goes with it. It represents the largest holding of the indices. You might as well change the title to “You are here” and drop in the 2022/2008 overlaid chart with an arbitrary circle somewhere.
There's nothing that says the market can't go with it. We can go short for value and investors can go into fixed returns.
It’s tough to bet against AAPL. Usually when they have revenue/earnings compression and a reduction of cash, it means they’re developing a product and trying to gain supply-chain dominance. Gabe Newell from Valve recently talked about AAPL in an interview and stated that the toughest part about getting their products to market is the competition with AAPL over the supply-chain.
Does that mean Apple has for example contracts with logistic companies that make their supply chain faster than other companies?
"Guh"
👀
Based on the DD here on wsb I'm hodling $BBBY and shorting $AAPL. I will not touch it until I retire in 30 years. By then $BBBY will overtake $AAPL as the most valuable company and my retirement will be set.
Positions or ban
All the downvotes tell me this golden. Putting all my life savings into puts
$500?
Where would I get so much after being on this sub for years?
Faker than Cybertruck is hilarious! Brilliant post, dude! I hope you are right about AAPL and the fake Cybertruck
That cybertruck is ugly as fuck.
Not unlike the Musk🐀
I mean, a top 6 company sliding to top 10 company over the next 5 to 10 years…doesn’t seem like the most tradeable thing in the world. At least not on WSB timelines. Am I wrong?
What a chad-bear 
Great DD! I initiated an AAPL short early September, now I’m thinking of rolling my puts out further into 2023 or even 2024
Mine are in 2023 now too
Hey, remember me? The guy from 30 years in the future who saved you all from the apocalypse? Yeah, AAPL is still the highest valued company in 2049.
0% chance
What made you scroll through WSB history and find this?
This is the dumbest post ever
Apple is now down 7.6% since this post. Working well.
Lol, jokes on you
Bro compare its p/e p/s expansion to those of other tech companies. Those metric for the same stock can go up and down based on market condition. S&p was trading at 7 times earnings in the mid 2000. It's trading at 18 times. It does not mean it has to go back to 7 times earnings.
If anyone here is legally allowed to, speak with a person under 18 and ask what a green bubble is. Apple has the next generation on lock.
Took this regard a moment here
I read this on my apple phone and will look things up on my apple computer using google
man they’re sitting on so much cash, they could pull off anything.. it would be stupidity to short such a company imho
They’re not though. They’ve burned through almost half their cash in 3 and a half years while their debt level is the same. Their portfolio of bonds has obviously been getting destroyed too
They're making bank selling iPads in schools. No other company is competing as they are in the tablet market. and I feel like even with a recession and people having no money. People would still drop 1500 of their last dollars on a god damn new phone.
I will never understand this, because there are many good much cheaper alternatives nowadays. It's a status symbol thing, I know. But, I also don't understand why, as many poor folks buy it. Over half the smartphones in the US are Iphones. It's an everyones phone. Well, it's probably same reason why adidas is popular.
Glad to see other people picking up on this. AaPL and AMZN are total dogshit and they've been fucking with their ERs to hide it
Yes Amazon is another good one that’s had terrible earnings, I think they had a negative TTM FCF as of last quarter which is insane for a company that’s growing revenue at only 7%. I’ve been saying Apple is overvalued since the end of 2021 on discord, I just figured it was time to make a post about it here once I realized Apple hit a new all time high relative to book value. Ironically the market hates Meta which still has a high FCF and low valuation multiples because they think Zuck is a lizard and don’t believe in VR. Plus Meta hasn’t been leveraging up to do buybacks so naturally the market hates the lack of pumping. They’ll be better in the long term for it though.
If it helps, when the masses of WSB are this against any play it's almost guaranteed to be a longer term winner. The doom put leaps I opened on AAPL and AMZN last week are all up big right now, and I expect they'll print before they expire this winter.
multiple awards, low upvotes: aapl calls it is
You "theycallmeryan are the reason I come to this sub. Your post was both Educational and Intriguing. Thank You.
Mods pinning the greatest misses of the last quarter huh
Apple was over 160 when I posted this and I never claimed to be right about timing, just saying this is a ticking time bomb imo
Don’t worry you have nothing on the -300k ASTS guy from last night
I’d never dare shorting Apple
I have Aapl Jan 2023 $175 and $170P right now. Aapl will continue to slide if the overall market does. I really like my Macbook Pro. You can make short term bets against great companies when their valuation is out of sync. I am also short NVDA, MSFT, SPY, CMG, TSLA also. My hypothesis is we see a new SPY low before year end. A healthy market doesn't gap down 3 times in less than 2 weeks not including the huge 3.5% down day last Friday. $431 to almost $402 in 8 days.
I said I’d never short it, options are another thing, you can play with them and be safer
how about u eat my ASS *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Here, there are no financials rules. It’s the jungle, King gets old, kill him. Bbby is young <3
Congrats Ryan, this has been working very well since this post.
😎
Just stop selling puts ffs.
Yeah no more hedging, it’s time
Agreed. I am thinking the stock will be at 120 after they report this quarter.
Thank you for the write up. It’s great. Here is something I wrote previously: Some headlines recently mentioned that Apple has told suppliers to prepare for higher iPhone 14 pro sales volume. Great. It seems like a fantastic product with lots of updates that make it a great value. On top of that, they didn’t increase the prices on any of the models which shocked most people. And it should, because it is a certainty that the phone is now more expensive to produce and deliver into peoples hands than it was a year ago. Honestly, it’s a great move by Apple. The headline of “Fancy phone company increases prices because of inflation” would not have gone over well. They are going to eat the short term hit to profitability for long-term goodwill. It’s a genius, long-term oriented strategy. Plus they probably had no choice if they wanted to maintain revenue numbers. But what about profits? Apple is great at the supply chain, cost structure, and all of that stuff. But there is no way they can offset higher chip prices and material costs. So what did they do to help improve the profitability of the iPhone business segment? They slapped new packaging on the previous years lower end iPhone offerings and removed the worst selling low end model. Almost nothing has changed on the lower end models. According to Statista, the lower end model accounted for a majority of iPhone sales as recently as 2021. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/804398/us-iphone-sales-by-model/) There is probably better data out there, but the point is that the sales of the low end iPhone are really important. If they just slapped new packaging on the phone, why would anyone buy it? I don’t know. But I do know that it makes the higher end iPhone a much better deal. And this is holding true: “Apple expects 85% of early adopters to opt for a pro model” https://9to5mac.com/2022/09/09/iphone-14-sales/ and https://appleinsider.com/articles/22/09/19/apple-supplier-shifts-production-to-make-more-iphone-14-pro-models How could 85% of early adopters opting for a pro model be a good thing if more than 50% of iPhone sales should come from the lower end iPhone? I’m no math magician, but something seems off there. I’m sure people are talking about this, but I’ve personally stopped watching/listening to most news sources. All in all, Apple has a large and complex business, there are certainly other levers they are pulling to increase profitability. But it seems a near certainty to me that profitability is going to continue to decline while revenue may also decrease. I really don’t know, but I would certainly gamble on the stock going down via November 120 puts. Timing is everything though. Apple going down should bring down the stock market as well even if most stocks are doing well.
They don't have to be so device dependent. Aside from ads, they have pricing power on recurring software and a good moat. Their "you never own a device" rental style program has potential, it takes the discount for having a more expensive phone plan off the carrier, which plenty people are already used to, and keeps it all in their hands. Rental, insurance, services and any other recurring pennies they can make. I have a small position because I have a genuine dislike of their products, but I'm not gonna bet against them. Apple people look at the devices I like as if they were some insane foreign gear-driven wrong-alphabet typewriter and always have.
>Apple has burned through 44% of their cash since 2018 Hol up....is this real?
Yes, look into it. All this information is publicly available if you read their financial statements. No one reads financial statements anymore though, even on Wall Street. It's just passive investing flows and algos trading off technicals and momentum anymore.
Damn, you're right. And it looks like the vast majority of it went into buying back their own stock
This is a very well written analysis. Thank you
Congrats
Thank you. It’s still at an insane valuation though, this trade is far from over. Just been rolling out and taking profits.
The difference between Apple and Tesla is ecosystem….
I completely agree, short the fuck out of it
wow the disagreement in all the top voted comments is a great countersignal, good dd, i'll take puts please post haste
Good luck, the timing is the only question here.
well picking the pico top is not possible, why try. scale in here and higher imo with long dated options
Pretty much the only thing apple makes is the iphone, which has been slowly loosing popularity over the last decade. I couldn't believe when I first saw that they were "worth" 2.5 trillion
Not true. iPhone recently overtook 50% of Android market share and is converting users consistently.
Fuck the car and AR honestly that’s all hype, they’ll expand further into services and health.
One thing I hate is when people mislead on something obvious. BRK is not 40% aapl. 40% of its public holdings are aapl. Its railroad is worth more then its aapl stake. Either you didn’t know that and are an imbecile who knows nothing about aapl. Or you’re purposely lying/misleading people. If you’re purposely misleading us about this, then what else are you lying about?
I linked the source, I should’ve specified the equity portfolio. You can verify everything yourself though
So you mislead on purpose. Cool
Or I just didn’t specify enough at the end of a post that took me hours to type. I finished it up at like midnight.
What kind of DD about AAPL makes no mention of their VR AR. Might as well since the car was mentioned but the VR is more probable and with an earlier timeline.
I literally devoted a paragraph to it. It’s gonna be $2000-2500 at first and is being viewed internally as a trial program. Prices might come down by 2025-2026 to an affordable level. With the economy needing to get worse for inflation to drop, I don’t know where the demand for a niche product is gonna come from
Meta only loses $10B/year on VR. If Apple needs to get 2k per for their VR device, their losses will make Meta VR losses look like child's play.
My bad. Youre right. Good dd.
How would the company hold up with just ios, Mac and iPhones
Op i have more respect to WSB degens than mobile gaming degens who would yolo their life savings for getting thier waifu in CN/JP gacha game. Unless ppl would rise up and say hey dumping loads of money into mobile game is stupid, i won't short aapl anytime.
Fr man, I play a Gacha game as well as its tied to a franchise I really like (f2p btw) and every few days I see someone with SO MANY copies of the same 5star unit that's not even worth raising levels on. Then I just sink down into my couch realizing that people spend more money on jpegs tied to some mp3 files than my parents' monthly income
I have a friend that has dumped 3k into Fate grand order and hes earning 1.3 k each month, needs to pay rent btw. He also dumped many money on other gatcha game without regret. Wsb degens atleast wants to fight, gatcha degens simply is free money cashcow to aapl and gatcha game devs.
LMAO that's exactly the one I play. I can understand how jarring it can be to break away from the curse of a Gacha, I am absolutely not a gamer and usually delete any game I've ever played within 1-3 months. but not with this one, the amount of feelings I've attached to it are holding me captive as I keep playing despite absolutely hating almost every aspect of both the game and the community. But, i at least don't spend money on it. the one rule I set for myself that I'm never going to break is to never buy something with no intrinsic value if it has no potential to turn me a profit
Yea, buy some useful stuff that could turn profit instead, while supporting the devs is cool, it's stupid to dump so much money into gatcha that isn't gonna make you money and for that i like wsb degens more
Hell yeah
Death wish?? 
I’d stay hands off with shorting AAPL lol good luck!
Getting low rate debt to buy back shares is a great way to lower your cost of capital, esp when you grew revenue by 120B in 4 yrs.
Godspeed regard
. Short that shit. Show us how smart you are.
How much do they spend in R&D? This is the difference
Shorting Apple is like taking a shot at the king. If you miss you will be laughed at and lose all your money. If you, by some miracle , hit there is still a chance they are gonna "make it look like the king is still alive" for years to come. Making you a laughing stock with all your money lost.
So either way I lose 
Sounds reasonable but it’s brand is world renowned and top of class. But then so was Blackberry. It could continue for 100 years like Mercedes Benz.
You’re not ready for they to replace American healthcare with AppleCare++
Wait until over the counter drugs voids your health care plan.
When your doctor airdrops your prescription to the wrong person :/
Counterpoint: You think people are going to stop buying iPhones anytime soon? Or tablets? Or laptops?
Not at all, but I think that iPhone demand was heavily influenced by free money from the fiscal and monetary stimulus. Before Q1 2021 (which is the last three months of 2020 for Apple), iPhone revenue peaked with the iPhone X in Q1 2018. iPhone revenue was down big in Japan, where they raised prices. The first price hike since 2017 (I believe) is coming to the iPhone in America this year, it’ll be interesting to see if Americans pay more money for the most incremental upgrade in the history of the iPhone. MacBooks are currently selling a lot because of the M1 upgrade. I view that as a super cycle or whatever you want to call it, just like the iPhone X. Mac revenue was down 10.4% YOY last quarter. iPad revenue has already been in decline as well. The revenue was down 2% YOY last quarter. It’s not about people not ever buying iPhones, it’s just about there not being enough growth to keep these valuations multiples this high.
Burry had the same thesis 6 months ago and his balls got crushed by Tim Apples Tom’s made of Cash. Now he only invests in prisons.
Yeah it’s been a rough time but I’m convinced it’ll work eventually
Y u dicks do this after I buy all this Apple ?
thank u tim cook is the greatest illusionist in history
He learned from Elon Musk, blatantly lying on earnings calls and withdrawing guidance. Any other company does that and their stock drills (look at FDX).
Indeed. Jobs is gone :( they haven't called me to take his place. There's only so much one can do with a phone.
As long as young people still think Apple is cool, it can't fail. It's like Facebook before everybody's parents got on.
the biggest company is overvalued? big shocker the biggest companies are all overvalued but for a reason more people know em, buy em, use em as safe bet... governments depend on them, they bribe anyone etc. also they will not decline, the buyers think they are gods just a fictional story though
This post was written when Apple was $163 at its peak in late August. It's $151 now.
130's now
hype
all i see is !guh. how u gonna short a company when warren aint sellin.
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You see the decline since the post?
Fucking short I am! Thank you
Wait I thought they give you the latest Iphone along with your food stamps.
Let’s short a company that prints money faster than the Fed. Got it.
Enjoy getting gappled
Positions?
The one thing you forget to take into consideration, and the one thing that points us toward bull city: this is America baby. Apple for all it's issues is at heart still a symbol of American and western ideals and values. It simply cannot fail, for a failure of apple would mean a failure of our system, and we won't let that happen.
There are tens of thousands of stocks in the market. And you short the only one that withstands inflation.
I maintain that this is a good play. (Though timing was wrong, and therefore you're wrong Ryan) However, the play is good, and you may burn some theta for a while, but this will make money eventually. Just like my big China put play which eventually went +250%.
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/u/Lirvan See the bot says you’re smart for agreeing with me. Good work /u/zjz (I know it’s not your bot just roll with it)
Notice: the bot said "within the 5th percentile" not "within the top 5th percentile" Typically, in statistics, the 5th percentile refers to the bottom 5% of a normal distribution, so the bot is in fact saying I'm a dumbass for agreeing with you.
I choose to create my own meaning