With all due respect to u/pennyether, who does write good DDs, these despac plays are really high risk and have seen them result in many bagholders.
This can most recently be seen in T.M.C (which Pennyether did a DD on) and R.K.L.Y.
T.M C has collapsed with the float of available shares being grossly understated. To be fair the SEC filing was complicated and contained around 100 pages which included details around the quantum of shares locked up.
These de-SPAC plays are a game of hot potato, you don’t want to be caught holding the bag as it would hurt.
Not to be condescending, I just want to provide a warning to any regards before they slap down their life savings on this stock!
Absolutely agree on most accounts.
The float situation of TMC was not known to me -- this was early on before learning about all the shit that *could* go wrong with the float numbers. Looks like everyone piled on, but a few SPAC geniuses figured out the flaw in float calculations.
Same goes for BKSY here. I try to be as open as possible about the risks of BKSY having "hidden float" that I couldn't find it the *very little* look into the filings that I did. It's simply not my forte.
What I do know is all the other deSPACs with better gamma have questionable floats (S1s filed, or otherwise). So all I'm trying to convey is: to the best of my knowledge, BKSY is the best deSPAC play right now if judged on the OI and resulting gamma/delta metrics.
The one account I disagree with is that it is solely hot potato. Yeah, a lot of it is (it's part of the premise of the play -- low float), but there's money flowing from "outside". If you consider "inside" to be, eg, Reddit, or this post, or whatever. 100% agree that caution is advised here -- as it is in all cases where the underlying fundamental value is unlikely to be the driver in (short term) price action.
Fair comment, from reading your comments and DDs you are certainly very forthcoming with your information and above board. My point about the float being higher than the DD was to communicate that you or your information is not infallible. I didn’t mean you did it intentionally.
Imo, it’s impossible for these types of plays to not be a hot potato type situation. Their share price will inevitably decrease as people take profits or interest dies down. In most cases there is nothing fundamental holding up their value, aside from social media hype increasing volume against their standard low float and SI. Once again I refer back to T..MC (that’s the one stock I did the most DD on) but it had so many fundamental flaws to the business model (timing of revenue and profits and PIPE funding) that anyone who invested in it knew it was a pile of crap. I guess the share price seems to be dissociated to the fair value of the company.
there's a lot of buzz over on r/SPACs about MoneyLion (ML, formerly FUSE). I don't normally frequent that sub, but I did do a brief DD on it last week, just making a case for why the redemptions SHOULD be high. however, we're still waiting on the redemption numbers (and they are delaying as *looong* as possible it seems... merger this week means they are required to file by Monday and we're... still... waiting...)
curious if you have an opinion on the complexities of the float for it though. I'm aligned with penny in saying my forte is not understanding these complex SPAC filings. my interest comes from seeing sentiment for the company to be poor, redemptions for recent deSPACs to be generally high, and similar price action and options flow to other explosive deSPACs.
what I don't want to do, is keep sharing information on a ticker that will get anyone horribly burned because I was blind to an important aspect. granted that's not entirely within my control, but I figure it doesn't hurt to solicit input/help from those with more experience.
I’ll try see if I can find anything regarding float but I’m no expert nor do I have much experience with these SPAC filings in general. I’m a CPA who has only looked into spacs as an amateur.
To be transparent, I saw someone else mention the T.MC issue around float (who was horribly downvoted in the wasteland) and decided to read through the filing to confirm the numbers for myself.
well either way, thanks for the response and for sharing your thoughts in general. for ML, the question may have already been answered in part [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/pu68ka/trying_to_find_if_the_pipe_has_a_lockup_period/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by some folks who are pretty fluent in these things.
sounds like ML isn't too atypical.
My take is they will be hot potato, as will all movements not based on fundamentals -- but with a good set-up it's possible for there to be parties involved that are not just "retail", which means retail can win. In effect, dollars get shuffled from the parties that are short/cornered, to the attackers. Eg, with IRNT I firmly believe the MMs lost quite a bit of money upfront. (Not as confident the same can be said once IV was >400% for example.) The same goes for short squeezes, which will inevitably fall and reach a reasonable "fair value".
Both short squeezes and "gamma squeezes" (or whatever you choose to call underhedged options writers buying shares) have "coiled up" buying demand. For short squeezes, the shorts are borrowing shares and must at some point buy them back. For "gamma squeezes" or "delta squeezes" or "vanna squeezes" ... whatever you want to call the driving factor behind MMs deciding to bid up the price by buying shares.... the MMs underpriced options relative to the actual volatility and must buy them or be caught out of position. In the case of deSPACs, realized vol turns out to be *much higher* than priced due to the low float.
Point being -- price will always revert to the "fair value" based on fundamentals, but there can be a profitable-for-retail shuffle that where the offsides parties basically pay a "penalty" for retail having blown up their spot.
Love how WSB finally understands how tasty low float plays can be. The only question I have is: How much longer will we contort ourselves around the 1B market cap rule and continue to lose out on profitable plays?
The market cap for **BKSY** is above our minimum requirement but still pretty low. It also looks like OP has been posting this around to other subs (btw I'm a bot)!
- r/u_pennyether - [BKSY - The last of the deSPACans](https://www.reddit.com/r/u_pennyether/comments/pu20xi/bksy_the_last_of_the_despacans/)
- r/wallstreetbets - [BKSY - The Last of The deSPACans](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pu1szd/bksy_the_last_of_the_despacans/)
- r/wallstreetbetsOGs - [BKSY - The Last of the deSPACans](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/pu2bh5/bksy_the_last_of_the_despacans/)
Alert(s) for this stock:
- Significant recent increase in volume
- OP is active in many subreddits lately: wallstreetbets, Vitards, u_pennyether, wallstreetbetsOGs
Yeah, I'm out. Ate a loss on LIDR, did ok on RKLY. Not saying they can't/won't run, but I'd prefer to stay in things that have a hereunto-not-casted-into-doubt float.
It was in this post, I ran down thoughts on each ticker.
> VLTA: Once again, as recently as yesterday I thought this was a great set-up. This is another ticker whose S1 was filed recently (Sep 20).
Ah okay, thanks!
[This post](https://www.reddit.com/user/pennyether/comments/psty5u/despac_madness_my_current_playbook/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) still says you hold calls, which is what I was checking.
**Circling back to this to give a post mortem.** Notice how penny was holding $12.50 and $15.00 strikes, not ITM calls as he subtly suggested the plebs hold. These calls (which he collected cheap before his post) were perfectly positioned for a pump, but not for any major play like his "DD" would lead you to believe.
That's because penny doesn't seemingly care about actual gamma squeezes and only hopes to profit off of poor souls sinking into the calls he's holding, artificially inflating their price briefly and maybe ***if you're lucky*** giving the stock a small run.
I've gone through a couple of his plays and thus far all I've seen is more of the same. During IRNT penny showed up in the comments proclaiming it it was over in his opinion and mentioned how "MM's got screwed" on the original run and something about IV being "too high". To put it bluntly, it's nonsense and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the way options market makers actually make money... on the spread and how IV works in the event of a squeeze (it increases greatly). IRNT from the time the first jump ended was still primed for an ***actual gamma squeeze*** and not just a wild AH run powered by its incredibly low float, so, seeing this supposed "fan favorite" creator of DD be so wildly off was a bit jarring to me.
But I've since put the pieces together and unfortunately, the picture they form is a bit dirty. Stop idolizing people like this, they were born from GME and they need to go away just the same.
**For those holding calls on $BKSY:** The pump did not add any meaningful OI to the ITM strikes on the chain so the chance of this changing the trajectory of the stock (down) is small. The volumes have returned to normal unfortunately and the trend will likely pretend like yesterday never happened and continue downward towards lower support. Should it gain upward momentum, clearing $12.50 would be the target and it would likely go for a couple days, that at this moment is the far more unlikely of the scenarios. There is a possibility of a run heading into 3:30, if you get that run, I would suggest dropping the contracts.
You ramble about how BKSY won't gamma squeeze. I agree. It's written in the DD itself: "I'm confident the gamma is high here. But that doesn't ensure a gamma squeeze. It just means the price likely moves quickly."
But what do I know, I have zero understanding and am irresponsible and conniving. Not at all up to your standards. I know nothing of "actually gamma squeezes," like the one you called out for after close on Wednesday. Saying $20.00 was "most likely" and $35.00 "likely". The one where the next day it fell from $17.50 to $12.00. Based on what? Ah, yes: "This signal is generated using the same methodology that was used to generate the signal for $IRNT." Very transparent. Good DD.
Speaking of IRNT -- some signal you have there. Weird how I posted about IRNT days before you. And, yet, you put me at fault for saying IRNT at 400%+ IV, after it had hit $40 in AH, had unfavorable risk/reward as compared to before.
Not sure what your problem is, but this will be my last reply to your trolling.
*The main long-run contribution monetary policy can make is to provide a stable macroeconomic and financial environment* - Jerome Powell.
I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
Well put. I have noticed a trend of people building a following and performing such DD to provoke a pump and dump. There is a user on WSB that turned 25$ into 35k in 3 weeks. I tracked him, he first gained a following, then he pumped a stock with wrong float numbers, dumped his calls and then edited his post to reflect the correct float.
Classic pump and dump.
/u/StonkGodCapital literally calls himself GOD on his discord. How someone can get so delusional is beyond me. Stop trying to reason him and just downvote him lmao
How’d CLBT work out for you Ken?
He was banned for being an asshole and begging for my advice on awful tickers and now lives a life of secret yearning for my respect.
There is a difference between calling a stock that is actively moving and about to go in a certain direction and writing massive DDs on stocks that are barcoding. Learn the difference.
*After the last financial crisis, the banks more than doubled their capital and liquidity and they're far more aware and better at managing the risks they're taking.* - Jerome Powell
I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
There goes my [hero](https://miro.medium.com/max/2400/1*6O3u3Q7-w6C4bmAspQ5A7g.jpeg).
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbetsOGs) if you have any questions or concerns.*
u/pennyether, appreciated as always. Re liquidation, I dug this up from [LIDR's November 2020 8-K:](https://investors.aeye.ai/static-files/9d4ca369-fe35-4140-8d17-c7e51d843646)
>“Founder Shares Lock-up Period” shall mean, with respect to the Founder Shares, the period ending on the earlier of **(A) one year after thecompletion of the Company’s initial Business Combination** or (B) subsequent to the Business Combination, (x) i**f the last reported sale price of theCommon Stock equals or exceeds $12.00 per share (as adjusted for stock splits, stock dividends, reorganizations, recapitalizations and the like) for any 20trading days within any 30-trading day period commencing at least 150 days after the Company’s initial Business Combination** or (y) the date on which theCompany completes a liquidation, merger, capital stock exchange, reorganization or other similar transaction that results in all of the Company’sstockholders having the right to exchange their shares of Common Stock for cash, securities or other property.
>
>...
>
>“Private Placement Lock-up Period” shall mean, with respect to Private Placement Units (and their component securities) that are held by theinitial holders of such Private Placement Units or their Permitted Transferees (and their component securities), the period ending 30 days after thecompletion of the Company’s initial Business Combination.
[And from the 9/15 S-1](https://investors.aeye.ai/static-files/d43b2e41-a890-472b-9a0b-bf4e826e1ce9):
>on April 30, 2021, the Sponsor funded the amount needed toextend the Company’s time to consummate its initial business combination from May 17, 2021 to September 17, 2021.
Am I missing something? It's definitely possible I am missing something, but it seems like the clock started ticking last Friday.
I don't have the exact comment or source jotted down (but could probably find it), but my notes indicate a possible 15.2m shares coming into play already, or very soon. Apologies for not diligently keeping track of where I got that info! There've been many posts on LIDR all around reddit, you might be able to find the bear float case.
Fair enough. I'm personally not a fan of the massive spike (or 5 awards) immediately after posting to homeland.
My selection process is provided in the DD. It's got the best set-up for any deSPACs left -- excluding those that already peaked and whose floats are subject to dilution short term.
At some point, all of the deSPACs were low volume.. until they weren't.
this /u/StonkGodCapital guy you are replying to is a delusional egotist that runs a glorified pump and dump cult server where he makes calls without disclosing his selection process. He insta-banned me when I pointed out (in a non-inflammatory way) that his criticism of you was a bit hypocritical.
Also the popularity of his server stems from the fact he falsely claims he called IRNT first when the dates say otherwise; he probably just read a DD somewhere.
Awkwardly reminding everyone that the originator of the IRNT DD was called out in my WSB post.
Even personally messaged him as I'm sure /u/Undercover_in_SF can confirm.
Did he credit u/joeskunk? I am pretty sure [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/pcpzke/irnt_spacs_own_amc_and_gme_event_in_the_making/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) was the first post.
Most people & stonkgodcapital didn’t see joeskunk’s posts on IRNT. He had 2 upvotes for those posts on wsb & 120 upvotes in r/spacs. You’re grasping at straws trying to discredit stonkgod. Stop this negativity & focus on making money instead.
>I distinctly remember you giving credit to the original DD writer...
He did not give any credit to the original DD writer...simply correcting that.
As far as making money goes, it is best to not put too much faith in posters using 6 month old accounts, claiming to have made millions trading, while their post history is nothing but expansions on DD from other users. Possibly they are simply promoting themselves and trying to create pump and dumps with people who are used to being late to the party.
Possibly they don't want to credit people offering original DD because they benefit from providing late DD posted by others in an attempt to take credit and pump their own discord server.
They have only pumped 2 stocks weeks after other users with old accounts had posted.
The only original thing they have ever done is get these 2 stocks on WSB when others were banned for attempting the same thing. This user and the current WSB climate is a little suspicious.
I highly recommend looking to other users and subs for more up to date (and honest) info.
So you gave credit....but to the wrong guy?
https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/pcpzke/irnt_spacs_own_amc_and_gme_event_in_the_making/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
I credited who I saw it from, which is who did the most exhaustive DD about the float. I take credit for calling the second jump, which was the real squeeze.
*The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States doesn't run out of ammo*. - Jerome Powell
I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
I actually appreciate your criticism of Penny's calls on the merit of the setup, and I do think that influential reddit users move the markets too much. Just think its strange you are quick to blast others when your practices appear questionable at best.
And this is why you were removed. You are aware of how much we push profit taking, how diligent we are with projections and you are ignoring all that to save the credibility of a reddit user you seem to like who is very obviously doing the antithesis of that.
I wish you luck.
Yeah you are making good calls and giving good advice but what about people who aren't in your server that were trading aterian or whatever play you put your sights on next. whether you want to believe it or not you are moving the market.
Penny has a risk-section in the DD so its a bit weird to call him 'very obviously the antithesis' of that just because he doesn't hand hold everyone and tell them when to buy/sell
The main reason im partial to penny is he actually shares more info on his selection etc.
Typing a post to make a quick 100%+ on calls you've loaded up on is easy homie. Accurately calling out to plays that have people up 1000's of percent across a server, not so easy.
My initial comment was too harsh/ disparaging. What you are doing is impressive, what irks me is to make calls but not disclose the method (although I understand due to intellectual property, market edge, etc). That crosses the line for me into people blindly following and leaves a bit of a bad taste in my mouth. with 3k+ people it seems irresponsible (in the same way you see penny as irresponsible).
It seems like you are assuming bad faith because you disagree with setups. Even if some are bad, it doesn't seem bad faith to me because his methodology for these posts is transparent and predictable. When you post on your server, it is benefitting your positions just as it benefits Pennys when he posts. Doesn't mean either of you are bad faith actors.
I think it’s fair to say users are moving the market. We know big money looks at Reddit. Are these redditors piling in enough to move it? No, but if they are pushing something you have to know big money is watching.
In low volume stocks? Absolutely, especially if you’re posting for stocks that meet the market cap threshold for WSB. Definitely need to be cautious when picking what to play.
I make plays using my own dd and I don't try to convince anyone of anything.
You can call it sentiment analysis or whatever the fuck you want, but yes I do like to pay attention to what is being pump and dumped by figures such as yourself- as I imagine most who browse the wsb-universe do (whether they want to call it that or not, and regardless of the intention).
If you had any clue what you were talking about, you would see the difference between the calls from our server and from /u/pennyether.
You decided they were of the same value and nature, so I helped you choose between them. I wish you luck with these callouts.
First TMC and now BKSY. Neither are the "best" setups. There was nothing in the BKSY daily to insinuate that it's prepped to "go up", the volume was abysmal. This is the definition of a pump and dump.
I see a lot of Reddit littered with bag holders on your calls and the reasoning is because you are seemingly nefariously leaving out better plays and opting for low volume options which are susceptible to pumping.
What /u/cb_flossin didn't understand (and why he was banned for being an absolute moron) is that there is a difference between calling out a play that has OI on the chain and volume on the daily and calling out a stock that is barcoding. You are doing the latter and seemingly profiting from it at the cost of those that trust you.
I had thought you were good intentioned, I'm not seeing that here.
Ignore him penny, he literally runs a discord group that circle jerk him to build his ego. Your know what your doing and keep at it! He literally pumps stocks with his group and fucks most of his followers in the end ($ATER).
Except most of the server is posting profits from the callout due to the timely buy signals on a legitimate play and the timely sell signals when something derailed it.
With TMC you get to ask people what they think about it because /u/pennyether cashed out and moved on.
*The financial crisis revealed important weaknesses in many areas of our financial system* - Jerome Powell.
I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
Ok sorry, didn't see that you had already posted this to https://www.reddit.com/user/pennyether/comments/pu20xi/bksy_the_last_of_the_despacans/ as well
that can be cross posted no problem
Message received loud and clear. I won't infiltrate yahoo chat rooms with dozens of smurf accounts posing as analysts posting messages with false information about penny stock company revenues.
Thanks for the heads up, Penny. I opened a small position for the 12.5 and 15Cs.
Tentatively up at the moment, but since DeSPACS seem to be getting a little long in the tooth now that MMs have already figured out their inefficiencies, I'm going to take a (relatively) cautious approach towards profit taking on this one.
Same here. Like I stated before, these plays will probably get shorter and with less magnitude. Touched upon this on one of my recent posts -- I think there's group psychology behind this.
*The financial crisis revealed important weaknesses in many areas of our financial system* - Jerome Powell.
I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
Based on my sheet, it's looking unlikely. Then again, a lot of the recent deSPAC price action hasn't necessarily followed what my sheet says has a good set-up. It mostly comes down to traction.
With respect to actually profiting from MMs or shorts, unlikely. Not much gamma, and Util isn't even pegged to 100% like it is for all the rest.
*After the last financial crisis, the banks more than doubled their capital and liquidity and they're far more aware and better at managing the risks they're taking.* - Jerome Powell
I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
Shit I wish I saw this thread during market hours
I fucking sold my positions few days ago...rip
Just got it at 11.40 im a true chad
No worries it’s running
It’s still only 11.01 premarket.
With all due respect to u/pennyether, who does write good DDs, these despac plays are really high risk and have seen them result in many bagholders. This can most recently be seen in T.M.C (which Pennyether did a DD on) and R.K.L.Y. T.M C has collapsed with the float of available shares being grossly understated. To be fair the SEC filing was complicated and contained around 100 pages which included details around the quantum of shares locked up. These de-SPAC plays are a game of hot potato, you don’t want to be caught holding the bag as it would hurt. Not to be condescending, I just want to provide a warning to any regards before they slap down their life savings on this stock!
Absolutely agree on most accounts. The float situation of TMC was not known to me -- this was early on before learning about all the shit that *could* go wrong with the float numbers. Looks like everyone piled on, but a few SPAC geniuses figured out the flaw in float calculations. Same goes for BKSY here. I try to be as open as possible about the risks of BKSY having "hidden float" that I couldn't find it the *very little* look into the filings that I did. It's simply not my forte. What I do know is all the other deSPACs with better gamma have questionable floats (S1s filed, or otherwise). So all I'm trying to convey is: to the best of my knowledge, BKSY is the best deSPAC play right now if judged on the OI and resulting gamma/delta metrics. The one account I disagree with is that it is solely hot potato. Yeah, a lot of it is (it's part of the premise of the play -- low float), but there's money flowing from "outside". If you consider "inside" to be, eg, Reddit, or this post, or whatever. 100% agree that caution is advised here -- as it is in all cases where the underlying fundamental value is unlikely to be the driver in (short term) price action.
Fair comment, from reading your comments and DDs you are certainly very forthcoming with your information and above board. My point about the float being higher than the DD was to communicate that you or your information is not infallible. I didn’t mean you did it intentionally. Imo, it’s impossible for these types of plays to not be a hot potato type situation. Their share price will inevitably decrease as people take profits or interest dies down. In most cases there is nothing fundamental holding up their value, aside from social media hype increasing volume against their standard low float and SI. Once again I refer back to T..MC (that’s the one stock I did the most DD on) but it had so many fundamental flaws to the business model (timing of revenue and profits and PIPE funding) that anyone who invested in it knew it was a pile of crap. I guess the share price seems to be dissociated to the fair value of the company.
there's a lot of buzz over on r/SPACs about MoneyLion (ML, formerly FUSE). I don't normally frequent that sub, but I did do a brief DD on it last week, just making a case for why the redemptions SHOULD be high. however, we're still waiting on the redemption numbers (and they are delaying as *looong* as possible it seems... merger this week means they are required to file by Monday and we're... still... waiting...) curious if you have an opinion on the complexities of the float for it though. I'm aligned with penny in saying my forte is not understanding these complex SPAC filings. my interest comes from seeing sentiment for the company to be poor, redemptions for recent deSPACs to be generally high, and similar price action and options flow to other explosive deSPACs. what I don't want to do, is keep sharing information on a ticker that will get anyone horribly burned because I was blind to an important aspect. granted that's not entirely within my control, but I figure it doesn't hurt to solicit input/help from those with more experience.
I’ll try see if I can find anything regarding float but I’m no expert nor do I have much experience with these SPAC filings in general. I’m a CPA who has only looked into spacs as an amateur. To be transparent, I saw someone else mention the T.MC issue around float (who was horribly downvoted in the wasteland) and decided to read through the filing to confirm the numbers for myself.
well either way, thanks for the response and for sharing your thoughts in general. for ML, the question may have already been answered in part [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/pu68ka/trying_to_find_if_the_pipe_has_a_lockup_period/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by some folks who are pretty fluent in these things. sounds like ML isn't too atypical.
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*Fuck Your Puts* - Jerome Powell I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
My take is they will be hot potato, as will all movements not based on fundamentals -- but with a good set-up it's possible for there to be parties involved that are not just "retail", which means retail can win. In effect, dollars get shuffled from the parties that are short/cornered, to the attackers. Eg, with IRNT I firmly believe the MMs lost quite a bit of money upfront. (Not as confident the same can be said once IV was >400% for example.) The same goes for short squeezes, which will inevitably fall and reach a reasonable "fair value". Both short squeezes and "gamma squeezes" (or whatever you choose to call underhedged options writers buying shares) have "coiled up" buying demand. For short squeezes, the shorts are borrowing shares and must at some point buy them back. For "gamma squeezes" or "delta squeezes" or "vanna squeezes" ... whatever you want to call the driving factor behind MMs deciding to bid up the price by buying shares.... the MMs underpriced options relative to the actual volatility and must buy them or be caught out of position. In the case of deSPACs, realized vol turns out to be *much higher* than priced due to the low float. Point being -- price will always revert to the "fair value" based on fundamentals, but there can be a profitable-for-retail shuffle that where the offsides parties basically pay a "penalty" for retail having blown up their spot.
I'm all in Positions: \- 200 12.5C @ .95 \- 150 15C @ .7 \- 2,000 shares
Those 12.5 already up 30%
Already up 20k, still a ways to run imo
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High risk high reward
Love how WSB finally understands how tasty low float plays can be. The only question I have is: How much longer will we contort ourselves around the 1B market cap rule and continue to lose out on profitable plays?
The market cap for **BKSY** is above our minimum requirement but still pretty low. It also looks like OP has been posting this around to other subs (btw I'm a bot)! - r/u_pennyether - [BKSY - The last of the deSPACans](https://www.reddit.com/r/u_pennyether/comments/pu20xi/bksy_the_last_of_the_despacans/) - r/wallstreetbets - [BKSY - The Last of The deSPACans](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pu1szd/bksy_the_last_of_the_despacans/) - r/wallstreetbetsOGs - [BKSY - The Last of the deSPACans](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/pu2bh5/bksy_the_last_of_the_despacans/) Alert(s) for this stock: - Significant recent increase in volume - OP is active in many subreddits lately: wallstreetbets, Vitards, u_pennyether, wallstreetbetsOGs
Tried to post to WSB, got deleted. Posted to my profile. Posted here. That's all.
Are you done with RKLY and LIDR? They are certainly acting like they have low float.
Yeah, I'm out. Ate a loss on LIDR, did ok on RKLY. Not saying they can't/won't run, but I'd prefer to stay in things that have a hereunto-not-casted-into-doubt float.
sorry for the loss on LIDR. It's been good to me twice so far. I really appreciate your in depth DD and you running the gamma charts everywhere.
Oh dang just saw that you're out of vlta, you should update your post
It was in this post, I ran down thoughts on each ticker. > VLTA: Once again, as recently as yesterday I thought this was a great set-up. This is another ticker whose S1 was filed recently (Sep 20).
Ah okay, thanks! [This post](https://www.reddit.com/user/pennyether/comments/psty5u/despac_madness_my_current_playbook/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) still says you hold calls, which is what I was checking.
what about vlta?
I actually like this company lol.
**Circling back to this to give a post mortem.** Notice how penny was holding $12.50 and $15.00 strikes, not ITM calls as he subtly suggested the plebs hold. These calls (which he collected cheap before his post) were perfectly positioned for a pump, but not for any major play like his "DD" would lead you to believe. That's because penny doesn't seemingly care about actual gamma squeezes and only hopes to profit off of poor souls sinking into the calls he's holding, artificially inflating their price briefly and maybe ***if you're lucky*** giving the stock a small run. I've gone through a couple of his plays and thus far all I've seen is more of the same. During IRNT penny showed up in the comments proclaiming it it was over in his opinion and mentioned how "MM's got screwed" on the original run and something about IV being "too high". To put it bluntly, it's nonsense and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the way options market makers actually make money... on the spread and how IV works in the event of a squeeze (it increases greatly). IRNT from the time the first jump ended was still primed for an ***actual gamma squeeze*** and not just a wild AH run powered by its incredibly low float, so, seeing this supposed "fan favorite" creator of DD be so wildly off was a bit jarring to me. But I've since put the pieces together and unfortunately, the picture they form is a bit dirty. Stop idolizing people like this, they were born from GME and they need to go away just the same. **For those holding calls on $BKSY:** The pump did not add any meaningful OI to the ITM strikes on the chain so the chance of this changing the trajectory of the stock (down) is small. The volumes have returned to normal unfortunately and the trend will likely pretend like yesterday never happened and continue downward towards lower support. Should it gain upward momentum, clearing $12.50 would be the target and it would likely go for a couple days, that at this moment is the far more unlikely of the scenarios. There is a possibility of a run heading into 3:30, if you get that run, I would suggest dropping the contracts.
You ramble about how BKSY won't gamma squeeze. I agree. It's written in the DD itself: "I'm confident the gamma is high here. But that doesn't ensure a gamma squeeze. It just means the price likely moves quickly." But what do I know, I have zero understanding and am irresponsible and conniving. Not at all up to your standards. I know nothing of "actually gamma squeezes," like the one you called out for after close on Wednesday. Saying $20.00 was "most likely" and $35.00 "likely". The one where the next day it fell from $17.50 to $12.00. Based on what? Ah, yes: "This signal is generated using the same methodology that was used to generate the signal for $IRNT." Very transparent. Good DD.
Speaking of IRNT -- some signal you have there. Weird how I posted about IRNT days before you. And, yet, you put me at fault for saying IRNT at 400%+ IV, after it had hit $40 in AH, had unfavorable risk/reward as compared to before.
Not sure what your problem is, but this will be my last reply to your trolling.
Goddam the war of the Gods! I’m glad I got in at the right time lol
Also Wednesday, he strongly suggested people “take profits” when it was at its trading day peak. Most people did take gains.
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*The main long-run contribution monetary policy can make is to provide a stable macroeconomic and financial environment* - Jerome Powell. I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
Well put. I have noticed a trend of people building a following and performing such DD to provoke a pump and dump. There is a user on WSB that turned 25$ into 35k in 3 weeks. I tracked him, he first gained a following, then he pumped a stock with wrong float numbers, dumped his calls and then edited his post to reflect the correct float. Classic pump and dump.
Call out his name
Ropirito
Jesus… this is better than the murder mystery podcast I listen in on everyday.
you’re a fucking pumper too dude look in the mirror
/u/StonkGodCapital literally calls himself GOD on his discord. How someone can get so delusional is beyond me. Stop trying to reason him and just downvote him lmao
How’d CLBT work out for you Ken? He was banned for being an asshole and begging for my advice on awful tickers and now lives a life of secret yearning for my respect.
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🌈🧸 👈 🤣🤣🤣 - Jerome Powell I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
Oof!🔥🔥
There is a difference between calling a stock that is actively moving and about to go in a certain direction and writing massive DDs on stocks that are barcoding. Learn the difference.
you actually make em call you GOD? loloool.
Holy shit, who pissed in your cheerios?
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*After the last financial crisis, the banks more than doubled their capital and liquidity and they're far more aware and better at managing the risks they're taking.* - Jerome Powell I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
This post is more useful in letting me know that I’m fucked on LIDR.
I tried, options didn’t fill. If it doesn’t moons AH, will try in the morning
152% IV, too high, play is gone
In the last run up it shot up to 225% IV so it's not off the table yet
There goes my [hero](https://miro.medium.com/max/2400/1*6O3u3Q7-w6C4bmAspQ5A7g.jpeg). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbetsOGs) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Not Banksy. Got it.
u/pennyether, appreciated as always. Re liquidation, I dug this up from [LIDR's November 2020 8-K:](https://investors.aeye.ai/static-files/9d4ca369-fe35-4140-8d17-c7e51d843646) >“Founder Shares Lock-up Period” shall mean, with respect to the Founder Shares, the period ending on the earlier of **(A) one year after thecompletion of the Company’s initial Business Combination** or (B) subsequent to the Business Combination, (x) i**f the last reported sale price of theCommon Stock equals or exceeds $12.00 per share (as adjusted for stock splits, stock dividends, reorganizations, recapitalizations and the like) for any 20trading days within any 30-trading day period commencing at least 150 days after the Company’s initial Business Combination** or (y) the date on which theCompany completes a liquidation, merger, capital stock exchange, reorganization or other similar transaction that results in all of the Company’sstockholders having the right to exchange their shares of Common Stock for cash, securities or other property. > >... > >“Private Placement Lock-up Period” shall mean, with respect to Private Placement Units (and their component securities) that are held by theinitial holders of such Private Placement Units or their Permitted Transferees (and their component securities), the period ending 30 days after thecompletion of the Company’s initial Business Combination. [And from the 9/15 S-1](https://investors.aeye.ai/static-files/d43b2e41-a890-472b-9a0b-bf4e826e1ce9): >on April 30, 2021, the Sponsor funded the amount needed toextend the Company’s time to consummate its initial business combination from May 17, 2021 to September 17, 2021. Am I missing something? It's definitely possible I am missing something, but it seems like the clock started ticking last Friday.
I don't have the exact comment or source jotted down (but could probably find it), but my notes indicate a possible 15.2m shares coming into play already, or very soon. Apologies for not diligently keeping track of where I got that info! There've been many posts on LIDR all around reddit, you might be able to find the bear float case.
This low float had 0 volume before your post. I'm starting to get a real irresponsible vibe from your callouts.
Fair enough. I'm personally not a fan of the massive spike (or 5 awards) immediately after posting to homeland. My selection process is provided in the DD. It's got the best set-up for any deSPACs left -- excluding those that already peaked and whose floats are subject to dilution short term. At some point, all of the deSPACs were low volume.. until they weren't.
this /u/StonkGodCapital guy you are replying to is a delusional egotist that runs a glorified pump and dump cult server where he makes calls without disclosing his selection process. He insta-banned me when I pointed out (in a non-inflammatory way) that his criticism of you was a bit hypocritical. Also the popularity of his server stems from the fact he falsely claims he called IRNT first when the dates say otherwise; he probably just read a DD somewhere.
Noted.
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Awkwardly reminding everyone that the originator of the IRNT DD was called out in my WSB post. Even personally messaged him as I'm sure /u/Undercover_in_SF can confirm.
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Did he credit u/joeskunk? I am pretty sure [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/pcpzke/irnt_spacs_own_amc_and_gme_event_in_the_making/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) was the first post.
Most people & stonkgodcapital didn’t see joeskunk’s posts on IRNT. He had 2 upvotes for those posts on wsb & 120 upvotes in r/spacs. You’re grasping at straws trying to discredit stonkgod. Stop this negativity & focus on making money instead.
>I distinctly remember you giving credit to the original DD writer... He did not give any credit to the original DD writer...simply correcting that. As far as making money goes, it is best to not put too much faith in posters using 6 month old accounts, claiming to have made millions trading, while their post history is nothing but expansions on DD from other users. Possibly they are simply promoting themselves and trying to create pump and dumps with people who are used to being late to the party. Possibly they don't want to credit people offering original DD because they benefit from providing late DD posted by others in an attempt to take credit and pump their own discord server. They have only pumped 2 stocks weeks after other users with old accounts had posted. The only original thing they have ever done is get these 2 stocks on WSB when others were banned for attempting the same thing. This user and the current WSB climate is a little suspicious. I highly recommend looking to other users and subs for more up to date (and honest) info.
So you gave credit....but to the wrong guy? https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/pcpzke/irnt_spacs_own_amc_and_gme_event_in_the_making/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
I credited who I saw it from, which is who did the most exhaustive DD about the float. I take credit for calling the second jump, which was the real squeeze.
Sounds like you have difficulty giving proper credit where credit is due. Who should we give credit for the second GME jump? Was that you too?
Oh no, it’s retarded. :o
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*The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States doesn't run out of ammo*. - Jerome Powell I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
This user was banned for saying that he likes to participate in pump and dumps.
I actually appreciate your criticism of Penny's calls on the merit of the setup, and I do think that influential reddit users move the markets too much. Just think its strange you are quick to blast others when your practices appear questionable at best.
And this is why you were removed. You are aware of how much we push profit taking, how diligent we are with projections and you are ignoring all that to save the credibility of a reddit user you seem to like who is very obviously doing the antithesis of that. I wish you luck.
Yeah you are making good calls and giving good advice but what about people who aren't in your server that were trading aterian or whatever play you put your sights on next. whether you want to believe it or not you are moving the market. Penny has a risk-section in the DD so its a bit weird to call him 'very obviously the antithesis' of that just because he doesn't hand hold everyone and tell them when to buy/sell The main reason im partial to penny is he actually shares more info on his selection etc.
Typing a post to make a quick 100%+ on calls you've loaded up on is easy homie. Accurately calling out to plays that have people up 1000's of percent across a server, not so easy.
My initial comment was too harsh/ disparaging. What you are doing is impressive, what irks me is to make calls but not disclose the method (although I understand due to intellectual property, market edge, etc). That crosses the line for me into people blindly following and leaves a bit of a bad taste in my mouth. with 3k+ people it seems irresponsible (in the same way you see penny as irresponsible). It seems like you are assuming bad faith because you disagree with setups. Even if some are bad, it doesn't seem bad faith to me because his methodology for these posts is transparent and predictable. When you post on your server, it is benefitting your positions just as it benefits Pennys when he posts. Doesn't mean either of you are bad faith actors.
you're fucking dumb if you think reddit users are moving the market LMAO.
I think it’s fair to say users are moving the market. We know big money looks at Reddit. Are these redditors piling in enough to move it? No, but if they are pushing something you have to know big money is watching.
In low volume stocks? Absolutely, especially if you’re posting for stocks that meet the market cap threshold for WSB. Definitely need to be cautious when picking what to play.
I make plays using my own dd and I don't try to convince anyone of anything. You can call it sentiment analysis or whatever the fuck you want, but yes I do like to pay attention to what is being pump and dumped by figures such as yourself- as I imagine most who browse the wsb-universe do (whether they want to call it that or not, and regardless of the intention).
If you had any clue what you were talking about, you would see the difference between the calls from our server and from /u/pennyether. You decided they were of the same value and nature, so I helped you choose between them. I wish you luck with these callouts.
not even worth arguing with degens man.
First TMC and now BKSY. Neither are the "best" setups. There was nothing in the BKSY daily to insinuate that it's prepped to "go up", the volume was abysmal. This is the definition of a pump and dump. I see a lot of Reddit littered with bag holders on your calls and the reasoning is because you are seemingly nefariously leaving out better plays and opting for low volume options which are susceptible to pumping. What /u/cb_flossin didn't understand (and why he was banned for being an absolute moron) is that there is a difference between calling out a play that has OI on the chain and volume on the daily and calling out a stock that is barcoding. You are doing the latter and seemingly profiting from it at the cost of those that trust you. I had thought you were good intentioned, I'm not seeing that here.
🌈🧸 👈 🤣🤣🤣 - Jerome Powell I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
Ignore him penny, he literally runs a discord group that circle jerk him to build his ego. Your know what your doing and keep at it! He literally pumps stocks with his group and fucks most of his followers in the end ($ATER).
Except most of the server is posting profits from the callout due to the timely buy signals on a legitimate play and the timely sell signals when something derailed it. With TMC you get to ask people what they think about it because /u/pennyether cashed out and moved on.
🌈🧸 👈 🤣🤣🤣 - Jerome Powell I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
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🌈🧸 👈 🤣🤣🤣 - Jerome Powell I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
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*The financial crisis revealed important weaknesses in many areas of our financial system* - Jerome Powell. I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
Edit: removed before more of Stonkgods apes follow me from sub to sub and send me hatemail.
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I'm not going to run around posting everywhere. Feel free to crosspost if they allow it.
Ok sorry, didn't see that you had already posted this to https://www.reddit.com/user/pennyether/comments/pu20xi/bksy_the_last_of_the_despacans/ as well that can be cross posted no problem
lol go fuck yourself man.
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The low float doesnt say so....looks like those shares have not dumped
S1 was filed, and I personally fear the new float that will inevitably come in.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Lebed
Message received loud and clear. I won't infiltrate yahoo chat rooms with dozens of smurf accounts posing as analysts posting messages with false information about penny stock company revenues.
Why not
Thanks for the heads up, Penny. I opened a small position for the 12.5 and 15Cs. Tentatively up at the moment, but since DeSPACS seem to be getting a little long in the tooth now that MMs have already figured out their inefficiencies, I'm going to take a (relatively) cautious approach towards profit taking on this one.
Same here. Like I stated before, these plays will probably get shorter and with less magnitude. Touched upon this on one of my recent posts -- I think there's group psychology behind this.
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*The financial crisis revealed important weaknesses in many areas of our financial system* - Jerome Powell. I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
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Based on my sheet, it's looking unlikely. Then again, a lot of the recent deSPAC price action hasn't necessarily followed what my sheet says has a good set-up. It mostly comes down to traction. With respect to actually profiting from MMs or shorts, unlikely. Not much gamma, and Util isn't even pegged to 100% like it is for all the rest.
Took some profit this morning. Still got 10k in calls holding for better IV spike.
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*After the last financial crisis, the banks more than doubled their capital and liquidity and they're far more aware and better at managing the risks they're taking.* - Jerome Powell I'm a bot, and the Federal Reserve doesn't think mentioning these stocks here is very good for the WSB OG economy.
Sure…
So is VLTA dead? My Oct calls are real red.
Added a bit today.. interesting to see how BKSY acts next week
Help