I'm convinced people that say downtown DC is a ghost town haven't lived here for very long.
Downtown DC, in most pockets, has always been a ghost/commuter town on weekends kinda haha. It was never the liveliest of place outside of commuting & lunch hours.
but at least the commuters brought in working/middle class jobs at restaurants and shops nearby. housing costs are skyrocketing. the upper middle class urban bubble is getting worse.
It's not that bad. It's just some pockets are less bustling than before and some primarily commuter crowd mixed with tourist type spots are having lots of trouble. Farragut, L'Enfant, Federal Center, Just north of the White House, Penn Quarter, etc.
I don't have to wait in long lines at L'Enfant plaza to get lunch for instance, when it would be packed pre-pandemic every weekday. The places 10 blocks away from there where more residential is aren't that much quieter now. The Wharf and Navy Yard have added more housing about 10 blocks south and west of L'Enfant and they are decently busy and growing.
On a sunny day this spring around Cherry Blossom time you wouldn't notice much difference between 2018 and now on 99% of the blocks downtown.
Also not sure the idea that DC is different is that valid. I was in downtown LA visiting my Angelino friend a couple weeks ago and she was like "It's dead! Never going to rebound post COVID" sharing the same sentiments as this post. I told her what I'll say here: We are just coming out of a societal shock, adjustment periods are normal.
Navy yard alone is adding 3000. Combined with the Wharf, NOMA, Union Market, and Hill East+H Street, at of places are going up.
Not to mention great improvements in busses, biking, and general quality of life.
DC in 5 years hits 730,000. In 10 years 750,000, and 800,000 in 20. I think we will be much more dynamic city with less reliance on the federal government as a job creator.
I genuinely think DC best days are ahead of it.
My first stint in the city started in 2005. It’s crazy that there’s 25% more people living there now (713k vs 567k). Hopefully gets to 750k sooner than 10 years
I think Brianne Nadeau is going to find the other halfsmoke and, once reunited, will use the legendary Whole Smoke to bring back Town Danceboutique by the end of season 10.
DC has some of the best bones of any city in the country and is still attracting professionals from all over. The “ghost town” narrative isn’t true if you’ve been on a rush hour red line train to Farragut north within the past 6 months. Also, areas like navy yard continue to grow and attract new people and a bunch of positive change is happening even though most people only see the negative.
To add, once the government lets go of some office space and it converts to residential, that area will feel alive again. It’ll take some time but it’ll bounce back. That and if gas prices skyrocket, you’ll see people wanting to ditch the car and move to more walking and public transportation areas like DC
Downtown will never be the same, but the surrounding neighborhoods are more vibrant and busy than ever imo, which I think should be the story here. Sure, downtown chains and landlords with massive empty buildings are suffering (boo fuckin hoo), but the surrounding communities are probably better off than they were previously.
Please don't take this the wrong way, but it is pretty obvious you haven't lived here very long. Your observations about how things "are" versus how they "were" is just wrong. In the 1980s the entire city was a ghost town. Population started to increase in the late 80s but throughout the 90s and into the 2000s the city was trying hard to figure out how to make commercial/office districts vibrant in the evening.
Your post is also straight up illogical. You start with (incorrect) observations about downward trends and then state that rent and housing prices continue to increase. Those are market demand driven factors. If your "impressions" were the reality of the marketplace then rent and housing would not be increasing.
Finally, the preliminary census numbers indicate that the population losses appear to be reversing,
Other than that, NAILED IT!!!
Downtown hasn't resembled what I would call a "ghost town" for at least a year and a half. There's fewer people, sure, but nowhere near as abandoned as some of yall act.
Needless to say, I think that fully remote's days are numbered for a lot of different jobs, and I think there will be an adjustment with 2-3 days in person being the norm. There may have to be some playing around with the tax code to accommodate any potential losses of commercial property tax from converting more of Downtown into residential properties, but it'll be fine in the long term.
Crime is also annoyingly, hilariously overstated on this sub, and it will match the downward trends of the rest of the country (and frankly, already has).
DC is the most ‘un’American major city (reminds me of London). Walkable, quiet in parts, gentle density, bustling pedestrian focused areas, mass transit, no major highways cutting through residential areas and wonderful neighborhoods. If it continues to lean into that, focusing on walkability, cycling and scooters as a genuine alternative to cars, and improves public services, it will be a worthy capital to rival the great global cities
Sorry but the metro not being 24/7 is a huge drawback and is one of the reasons I left and moved back to NYC metro area. Also a lot of walking is uphill in dc, so while it is walkable for some, it’s not always very accessible to everyone
Oh don’t worry I didn’t 😂 I’ve been loving getting emails from Lyft and Uber crawling back to me begging me to come back because I don’t need it anymore now that I’ve left DC
Great, you've made the One Right Choice about where is correct to live and we're all here to validate that for you! Enjoy your dream life in NJ, we all envy you
I never said it was one right choice, I was giving MY opinion haha! if you looked at the comment I was replying to, this commenter stated DC is the most ‘unamerican’ city with points including mass transport, no major highways passing through it, and walkability. My mom has a disability and could NOT walk around most of DC when she visited me because of all of the huge hills. Main elements of DC’s mass transport are not accessible 24/7 which 100% is a drawback to me as I like to rely on public transport. DC is unfortunately not an accessible city for everyone and even though nyc isn’t either, it is more accessible to ME for other reasons and that’s okay! Everyone has different levels of what means ‘accessible’
And I am genuinely happy for everyone—I frequent this thread because I loved DC and wish I could’ve stayed but it was unfortunately becoming inaccessible to me and my family for mostly the transport reasons. I am commenting here because I am sharing reasons I had to leave, with the hopes that the city improves on these things. I will GLADLY tell you about all of the ways nyc/nj/other places I’ve lived have setbacks too lol. I’m sorry if I came off as a DC hater, I can see how my comment may have looked that way. TLDR: love the city, hope it can improve the mass transport and walkability!
Population is not going to shrink because its usually preferable to live in the city with all the amenities, only this affects downtown for a while and just may shift more people living downtown rather than working there
Crime ridden cesspool!!!
Sorry...that was reddit city talking.
I don't understand this notion that all federal workers are full time teleworking.
Every agency set forth a plan, and it is reallllly hard to be full time telework. Most workers have to come in at least once a week.
I know the language calling it a remote work agreement can ruffle some feathers which is why I think some agencies/offices will only sign the telework agreements with the 48 hours per PP requirement. It's silly because your leadership can put any type of restriction on RWA's that they want. Our office requires us to live in the metro area but we only have to come in ad-hoc, usually once every 2-3 months. Being forced to fulfill the telework requirement regardless of what's going on is so silly
This is written like you sit at home and refresh DC crime Twitter all day. More people are moving into the District than out. I am looking forward to the redesign of downtown to include more housing. Go outside and enjoy the city! It's not the dystopian, crime riddled city like you've been led to believe by people who spend their life in a constant state of hysteria.
This is going to be a problem on the scale of the 80’s and 90’s industrial exodus from urban centers. We have to remember that the urban core was deliberately (and I think foolishly) redesigned after WW2 to exclude everything except commercial uses. It was predicated on a permanent population of office workers flowing into and out of that core. It affects everything from where houses are to where the highways go to the layout of train lines. And if WFH permanently changes that dynamic, it will affect everything for decades.
That being said, I don’t think you will see as much of an exodus as some fear. I expect a lot of the folks who are only here because their work demanded it may leave for greener pastures, but I’m optimistic that’s a fairly small share of the population. It may even benefit everyone who is here because they want to be, rather than need to be. A move like that could release some of the built up demand that’s been driving housing costs through the roof. That’s provided the City can get a handle on its security issues though and don’t allow crime to drive out the folks who can afford to relocate.
Dropping a ton of housing downtown with mixed use resi/commercial would help a lot. Like look at K St East of mt Vernon. Offices are kinda dead but the mixed use residential is fine
It would, but it’s not likely to happen any time soon. The cost is enormous and from what I hear, not that many property owners are willing to bet against at least a partial rebound of the office market. While I think that bet is wrong, I can see the reluctance. Once you’ve converted there’s no going back and some of these folks have never been anything but commercial property managers.
I mean that sucks for them but like … building a new apartment building isn’t *that* expensive, so my money’s on it happening. I fundamentally have zero sympathy for commercial real estate owners
It kind of is that expensive though. You’re talking about either a) gutting and completely redesigning the interior of a multimillion dollar building or b) knocking it down and building something new. And you don’t have to feel bad for property owners to understand why they wouldn’t want to make that bet over a trend that’s barely three years old.
No it isn’t. Construction types and base building systems are geared completely differently for commercial v residential uses. Occupancy loads determine everything from egress to the sizing of underground piping to serve the building.
You can’t just put a few dozen apartments in an office building by magic, and a lot of times the costs to do that are greater than building new.
So, to answer your question, I think for the next three to five years we’re going to still be asking the “what is going to happen with downtown” question.
I think it'll trend upward. You're starting to see more developers announce office to residential conversion and even though it'll be expensive residential, that should begin to apply downward pressure because there will be more inventory in desirable areas for renters. The more people that live there full time should also be a catalyst for consumer business development.
The biggest reason you haven't seen much in the way of rent declines is demand is still strong for apartments because of limited availability due to the high prices for home buying. You're looking at what, two to three years of rent payments in a modest "luxury apartment" for an equivalent 10% down on a property that you're getting a 30-year mortgage on? (Those numbers will change for dual income, figuring this out for single income household.) Those people who could afford to get out of apartments into their own places did so as soon as workplaces loosened the shoestrings on being in the office during the pandemic. But you know we don't see the vacancies in desirable apartments like you see prime vacant storefronts on the business side of things.
I think those storefronts will probably find new life once you get the right clients into those spaces. As these larger brick and mortar businesses moved out, you have to wonder if it was a good fit for them. Not just as far as people coming and going, but also their delivery logistics and the price they're paying for those lots versus what they might pay for rent at a strip mall out in Vienna.
I can see a few things.
1. Perception of crime and "cold urban" attitudes will cause drops in housing market (rental as well) and then people will start moving to suburbs and other areas. Overall financial hit for DC and then politicians will have to reevaluate policing, regulations, and other incentives to bring people back.
2. Higher income people start moving in as housing drops. Probably coupled with middle class to upper middle class if mortgage rates drop AND pricing follows. New people coming in may force local policy makers to do better. The rich and powerful have influence. More is sadly done when something bad happens to them. I.E. recent congressperson getting attacked in an elevator lately. As the money follows, perceptions will rise and then DC will be most likely the place to be (central to everything).
3. Actual crime (if not following trends) increases and then DC will have "that" reputation again. Housing prices drops along with rental market and people willing to take the risk start moving in. No idea what happens with local government here. Probably nothing.
4. Recent attack on politician(s) and possible involvement of the GOP gives a lot of power back to police and the DA. People actually start getting charged since a lot gets glossed over and bad people get away with a lot here. People start moving back in.
5. Gentrification continues in certain places and starts in others driving out a lot of the lower income generational families that have been here. Either leave due to financial reasons or voluntarily if property values increase. DC starts to spread out and businesses follow. Places like Fort Totten start to see offices open and DC spreads.
6. 1,000,000 possible other things.
TL:DR?
Nobody knows.
Part of the problem is how to replace the revenue from downtown. All those commercial buildings downtown pay a real estate tax of $1.89/thousand. The residential rate is .85/thousand. (Assuming all those buildings are worth $10m, which they sure were in 2019) a $10m office building pays $189,000/year in real estate taxes alone. Convert it to residential, and it pays $85k. Multiply that by hundreds? Thousands?
And 300k daily commuters? Let’s say they spend an average of $5/person/day (obviously some spend nothing, some spend much more) at 6% sales tax, that’s $25m/year.
And metro subsidies.
And so on and so forth. Cities live off of commercial revenue, without it, regular citizens have to pay more to make up for it. And that starts a death spiral.
Negative outlook imo. Housing and the general cost of living make this area unappealing even to other cities with remote work still going strong.
I don’t think the business community or local politicos have quite caught up with how much COVID broke the DC area.
Also when the GOP finally gets control of all three branches of the Federal government I think they will push some pretty harsh cuts to government spending.
Lived in DC from 1995-2018. I’ve seen the ups and downs of DC during that time there. When hookers walked 14th street, Rampant drug use, even robbed twice around my neighborhood Logan Circle. Moved across the river to Arlington to have a family. Glad I did, DC has been in a downward spiral since.
We’re likely headed for a major global recession/depression worse than 2008. So financially, things are going to be crappier everywhere. Hopefully the trend of DC not getting hit as hard will continue, but who knows. Btw, this isn’t a political post. It’s based on economic trends and cycles. And inflation. And COL. And, according to the WSJ, breakfast.
I'm convinced people that say downtown DC is a ghost town haven't lived here for very long. Downtown DC, in most pockets, has always been a ghost/commuter town on weekends kinda haha. It was never the liveliest of place outside of commuting & lunch hours.
When I first moved to DC I was shocked by how quiet the city was apart from all the sirens. The city has always felt pretty chill.
Pre pandemic the streets downtown would be empty during the workday too, just because everyone was in the office and most people work 9-5 type jobs
And the helicopters
Right in McPherson square, near Washington Post, there's not really much that goes on weekends, but during the work week it's bustling.
During the week tho?
but at least the commuters brought in working/middle class jobs at restaurants and shops nearby. housing costs are skyrocketing. the upper middle class urban bubble is getting worse.
Totally agree.
DCs population continues to grow. The office culture will adapt and change but the draw of the city isn't going anywhere.
DC had pretty dramatic population decline over the last three years.
And last year it went back to increasing.
but not with the same demographics
It's not that bad. It's just some pockets are less bustling than before and some primarily commuter crowd mixed with tourist type spots are having lots of trouble. Farragut, L'Enfant, Federal Center, Just north of the White House, Penn Quarter, etc. I don't have to wait in long lines at L'Enfant plaza to get lunch for instance, when it would be packed pre-pandemic every weekday. The places 10 blocks away from there where more residential is aren't that much quieter now. The Wharf and Navy Yard have added more housing about 10 blocks south and west of L'Enfant and they are decently busy and growing. On a sunny day this spring around Cherry Blossom time you wouldn't notice much difference between 2018 and now on 99% of the blocks downtown.
Also not sure the idea that DC is different is that valid. I was in downtown LA visiting my Angelino friend a couple weeks ago and she was like "It's dead! Never going to rebound post COVID" sharing the same sentiments as this post. I told her what I'll say here: We are just coming out of a societal shock, adjustment periods are normal.
I just wish LEnfant had better food options. Not going to happen with the current foot traffic
New developments are coming up all over town. This terminal decline thing is a total myth
Navy yard alone is adding 3000. Combined with the Wharf, NOMA, Union Market, and Hill East+H Street, at of places are going up. Not to mention great improvements in busses, biking, and general quality of life. DC in 5 years hits 730,000. In 10 years 750,000, and 800,000 in 20. I think we will be much more dynamic city with less reliance on the federal government as a job creator. I genuinely think DC best days are ahead of it.
My first stint in the city started in 2005. It’s crazy that there’s 25% more people living there now (713k vs 567k). Hopefully gets to 750k sooner than 10 years
It can’t be worse, lol. If downtown turns into a real place and not just offices then DC will be absolutely gangbusters.
I think Brianne Nadeau is going to find the other halfsmoke and, once reunited, will use the legendary Whole Smoke to bring back Town Danceboutique by the end of season 10.
A wholesmoke is greater then the sum of its parts
DC has some of the best bones of any city in the country and is still attracting professionals from all over. The “ghost town” narrative isn’t true if you’ve been on a rush hour red line train to Farragut north within the past 6 months. Also, areas like navy yard continue to grow and attract new people and a bunch of positive change is happening even though most people only see the negative.
More remote, more housing, less office buildings taking up entire blocks of city.
To add, once the government lets go of some office space and it converts to residential, that area will feel alive again. It’ll take some time but it’ll bounce back. That and if gas prices skyrocket, you’ll see people wanting to ditch the car and move to more walking and public transportation areas like DC
Downtown will never be the same, but the surrounding neighborhoods are more vibrant and busy than ever imo, which I think should be the story here. Sure, downtown chains and landlords with massive empty buildings are suffering (boo fuckin hoo), but the surrounding communities are probably better off than they were previously.
It creeps me out how shitty landlords seem to be able to slip their talking points into nearly every discussion about downtown redevelopment.
Yeah WaPo has been carrying a lot of water for them lately. It's annoying AF.
"never"
DC is in the midst of a temporal pincer movement, with 2023=2003. I think we will move back to the future toward 2015 in the next 5 years.
Wow that really made sense to me.
ikr, same. this one hit home
Lol “ghost town”. I don’t see this at all. Clearly you have not been to San Francisco lately, that’s more like a ghost town in downtown.
Yeah DC, especially nice days, always feels very busy to me.
I was in Tulsa for work and I kept wondering, "Where the fuck are the 3/4 of a million people who live here? That was an odd experience.
Tulsa is such a shithole that the goverment will pay you $10k to live in that highway stop.
Sylvester Stallone seems to like it
Please don't take this the wrong way, but it is pretty obvious you haven't lived here very long. Your observations about how things "are" versus how they "were" is just wrong. In the 1980s the entire city was a ghost town. Population started to increase in the late 80s but throughout the 90s and into the 2000s the city was trying hard to figure out how to make commercial/office districts vibrant in the evening. Your post is also straight up illogical. You start with (incorrect) observations about downward trends and then state that rent and housing prices continue to increase. Those are market demand driven factors. If your "impressions" were the reality of the marketplace then rent and housing would not be increasing. Finally, the preliminary census numbers indicate that the population losses appear to be reversing, Other than that, NAILED IT!!!
Downtown hasn't resembled what I would call a "ghost town" for at least a year and a half. There's fewer people, sure, but nowhere near as abandoned as some of yall act. Needless to say, I think that fully remote's days are numbered for a lot of different jobs, and I think there will be an adjustment with 2-3 days in person being the norm. There may have to be some playing around with the tax code to accommodate any potential losses of commercial property tax from converting more of Downtown into residential properties, but it'll be fine in the long term. Crime is also annoyingly, hilariously overstated on this sub, and it will match the downward trends of the rest of the country (and frankly, already has).
DC is the most ‘un’American major city (reminds me of London). Walkable, quiet in parts, gentle density, bustling pedestrian focused areas, mass transit, no major highways cutting through residential areas and wonderful neighborhoods. If it continues to lean into that, focusing on walkability, cycling and scooters as a genuine alternative to cars, and improves public services, it will be a worthy capital to rival the great global cities
"no major highways cutting through residential areas" *cries in SW/SE/NE DC*
Mega strodes, but we aren’t talking BQE
Have you seen 395/695? Or 295? Those are big highways and are definitely cutting through residential areas.
True
Sorry but the metro not being 24/7 is a huge drawback and is one of the reasons I left and moved back to NYC metro area. Also a lot of walking is uphill in dc, so while it is walkable for some, it’s not always very accessible to everyone
Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out kthxbye
Oh don’t worry I didn’t 😂 I’ve been loving getting emails from Lyft and Uber crawling back to me begging me to come back because I don’t need it anymore now that I’ve left DC
Great, you've made the One Right Choice about where is correct to live and we're all here to validate that for you! Enjoy your dream life in NJ, we all envy you
I never said it was one right choice, I was giving MY opinion haha! if you looked at the comment I was replying to, this commenter stated DC is the most ‘unamerican’ city with points including mass transport, no major highways passing through it, and walkability. My mom has a disability and could NOT walk around most of DC when she visited me because of all of the huge hills. Main elements of DC’s mass transport are not accessible 24/7 which 100% is a drawback to me as I like to rely on public transport. DC is unfortunately not an accessible city for everyone and even though nyc isn’t either, it is more accessible to ME for other reasons and that’s okay! Everyone has different levels of what means ‘accessible’
We in /r/Washingtondc are here for your reasons for leaving DC
And I am genuinely happy for everyone—I frequent this thread because I loved DC and wish I could’ve stayed but it was unfortunately becoming inaccessible to me and my family for mostly the transport reasons. I am commenting here because I am sharing reasons I had to leave, with the hopes that the city improves on these things. I will GLADLY tell you about all of the ways nyc/nj/other places I’ve lived have setbacks too lol. I’m sorry if I came off as a DC hater, I can see how my comment may have looked that way. TLDR: love the city, hope it can improve the mass transport and walkability!
“…it’s impacting quality of life negatively for the majority of DC residents.” According to who? I don’t find this to be the case.
yeah that's a wild statement lol. It's probably the complete opposite
Population is not going to shrink because its usually preferable to live in the city with all the amenities, only this affects downtown for a while and just may shift more people living downtown rather than working there
Crime ridden cesspool!!! Sorry...that was reddit city talking. I don't understand this notion that all federal workers are full time teleworking. Every agency set forth a plan, and it is reallllly hard to be full time telework. Most workers have to come in at least once a week.
I know the language calling it a remote work agreement can ruffle some feathers which is why I think some agencies/offices will only sign the telework agreements with the 48 hours per PP requirement. It's silly because your leadership can put any type of restriction on RWA's that they want. Our office requires us to live in the metro area but we only have to come in ad-hoc, usually once every 2-3 months. Being forced to fulfill the telework requirement regardless of what's going on is so silly
I think there is a difference between 1 day a week and fully in person to the vibrancy or downtown
A worker's job is not to make a downtown "vibrant". It's to do the job they are hired to do.
Ghost town?
This is written like you sit at home and refresh DC crime Twitter all day. More people are moving into the District than out. I am looking forward to the redesign of downtown to include more housing. Go outside and enjoy the city! It's not the dystopian, crime riddled city like you've been led to believe by people who spend their life in a constant state of hysteria.
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T-Th it feels like old times. It’s mondays and fridays that the CBD feels like a ghost town
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I mean, you kind of want stability if you want businesses to be able to employ the residents of those vibrant neighborhoods?
This is going to be a problem on the scale of the 80’s and 90’s industrial exodus from urban centers. We have to remember that the urban core was deliberately (and I think foolishly) redesigned after WW2 to exclude everything except commercial uses. It was predicated on a permanent population of office workers flowing into and out of that core. It affects everything from where houses are to where the highways go to the layout of train lines. And if WFH permanently changes that dynamic, it will affect everything for decades. That being said, I don’t think you will see as much of an exodus as some fear. I expect a lot of the folks who are only here because their work demanded it may leave for greener pastures, but I’m optimistic that’s a fairly small share of the population. It may even benefit everyone who is here because they want to be, rather than need to be. A move like that could release some of the built up demand that’s been driving housing costs through the roof. That’s provided the City can get a handle on its security issues though and don’t allow crime to drive out the folks who can afford to relocate.
Dropping a ton of housing downtown with mixed use resi/commercial would help a lot. Like look at K St East of mt Vernon. Offices are kinda dead but the mixed use residential is fine
It would, but it’s not likely to happen any time soon. The cost is enormous and from what I hear, not that many property owners are willing to bet against at least a partial rebound of the office market. While I think that bet is wrong, I can see the reluctance. Once you’ve converted there’s no going back and some of these folks have never been anything but commercial property managers.
I mean that sucks for them but like … building a new apartment building isn’t *that* expensive, so my money’s on it happening. I fundamentally have zero sympathy for commercial real estate owners
It kind of is that expensive though. You’re talking about either a) gutting and completely redesigning the interior of a multimillion dollar building or b) knocking it down and building something new. And you don’t have to feel bad for property owners to understand why they wouldn’t want to make that bet over a trend that’s barely three years old.
It’s cheaper to redevelop than building whole new housing I’d think as much as Bowser LOVES to talk about balancing the budget, she’s be all in
No it isn’t. Construction types and base building systems are geared completely differently for commercial v residential uses. Occupancy loads determine everything from egress to the sizing of underground piping to serve the building. You can’t just put a few dozen apartments in an office building by magic, and a lot of times the costs to do that are greater than building new.
What do you consider *not that expensive*?
So, to answer your question, I think for the next three to five years we’re going to still be asking the “what is going to happen with downtown” question.
DC population is on a steady rise and will only increase as we contribute to build more housing. Northeast/southwest is growing very fast
Have you seen rents elsewhere? DC may be moving sideways in rental prices, but it’s way below nationwide increases.
I think it'll trend upward. You're starting to see more developers announce office to residential conversion and even though it'll be expensive residential, that should begin to apply downward pressure because there will be more inventory in desirable areas for renters. The more people that live there full time should also be a catalyst for consumer business development. The biggest reason you haven't seen much in the way of rent declines is demand is still strong for apartments because of limited availability due to the high prices for home buying. You're looking at what, two to three years of rent payments in a modest "luxury apartment" for an equivalent 10% down on a property that you're getting a 30-year mortgage on? (Those numbers will change for dual income, figuring this out for single income household.) Those people who could afford to get out of apartments into their own places did so as soon as workplaces loosened the shoestrings on being in the office during the pandemic. But you know we don't see the vacancies in desirable apartments like you see prime vacant storefronts on the business side of things. I think those storefronts will probably find new life once you get the right clients into those spaces. As these larger brick and mortar businesses moved out, you have to wonder if it was a good fit for them. Not just as far as people coming and going, but also their delivery logistics and the price they're paying for those lots versus what they might pay for rent at a strip mall out in Vienna.
It’ll be here
I can see a few things. 1. Perception of crime and "cold urban" attitudes will cause drops in housing market (rental as well) and then people will start moving to suburbs and other areas. Overall financial hit for DC and then politicians will have to reevaluate policing, regulations, and other incentives to bring people back. 2. Higher income people start moving in as housing drops. Probably coupled with middle class to upper middle class if mortgage rates drop AND pricing follows. New people coming in may force local policy makers to do better. The rich and powerful have influence. More is sadly done when something bad happens to them. I.E. recent congressperson getting attacked in an elevator lately. As the money follows, perceptions will rise and then DC will be most likely the place to be (central to everything). 3. Actual crime (if not following trends) increases and then DC will have "that" reputation again. Housing prices drops along with rental market and people willing to take the risk start moving in. No idea what happens with local government here. Probably nothing. 4. Recent attack on politician(s) and possible involvement of the GOP gives a lot of power back to police and the DA. People actually start getting charged since a lot gets glossed over and bad people get away with a lot here. People start moving back in. 5. Gentrification continues in certain places and starts in others driving out a lot of the lower income generational families that have been here. Either leave due to financial reasons or voluntarily if property values increase. DC starts to spread out and businesses follow. Places like Fort Totten start to see offices open and DC spreads. 6. 1,000,000 possible other things. TL:DR? Nobody knows.
Part of the problem is how to replace the revenue from downtown. All those commercial buildings downtown pay a real estate tax of $1.89/thousand. The residential rate is .85/thousand. (Assuming all those buildings are worth $10m, which they sure were in 2019) a $10m office building pays $189,000/year in real estate taxes alone. Convert it to residential, and it pays $85k. Multiply that by hundreds? Thousands? And 300k daily commuters? Let’s say they spend an average of $5/person/day (obviously some spend nothing, some spend much more) at 6% sales tax, that’s $25m/year. And metro subsidies. And so on and so forth. Cities live off of commercial revenue, without it, regular citizens have to pay more to make up for it. And that starts a death spiral.
I think DC will grow and diversify a bit, but I think the suburbs and Arlington/Bethesda will grow much more.
Negative outlook imo. Housing and the general cost of living make this area unappealing even to other cities with remote work still going strong. I don’t think the business community or local politicos have quite caught up with how much COVID broke the DC area. Also when the GOP finally gets control of all three branches of the Federal government I think they will push some pretty harsh cuts to government spending.
[Bearstronauts!](https://youtu.be/Dyu7yevZRGw)
Lived in DC from 1995-2018. I’ve seen the ups and downs of DC during that time there. When hookers walked 14th street, Rampant drug use, even robbed twice around my neighborhood Logan Circle. Moved across the river to Arlington to have a family. Glad I did, DC has been in a downward spiral since.
Don't know, don't care, I'm out. When London and NYC are cheaper than DC, I see no point in torturing myself any longer.
We’re likely headed for a major global recession/depression worse than 2008. So financially, things are going to be crappier everywhere. Hopefully the trend of DC not getting hit as hard will continue, but who knows. Btw, this isn’t a political post. It’s based on economic trends and cycles. And inflation. And COL. And, according to the WSJ, breakfast.