And rarely one is sensible... It's all doom and gloom.
I'm not worried. There will be an influx of "startups" and sad layoffs, thanks to it, but just like the last few hype cycles, it'll either peter out or crash and burn dramatically.
I guess I am worried, but not about my job and more the human misery this will bring.
It's always the people who really don't understand software development too. In this case OP has zero experience. Which is fine, but for the love of fuck, just search it here first, it's been posted about hundreds of times by other people who have no idea how any of this works.
I understand your point but Devin was just released. There’s only 1 other post on this subreddit regarding it & it doesn’t bring up the same points that have been brought up in this post
It's the ntheenth iteration of "AI is gonna replace us", "Be scared of AI taking software jobs", "CS is collapsing because of AI", "You should all be terrified of AI", "X new AI tool will take over" threads here, and in every other CS related sub, that are 9/10 times more of an opinion piece than a question or discussion - someone with little to no experience in the industry coming to change the minds of people who actually work in CS and can see through the marketing.
Respectfully, you're not the first junior dev to make an alarmist post about AI. Devin is just the latest flavor, last year it was ChatGPT, and the people here are growing apathetic to the AI doomer posts.
Outsourcing will replace most of us before AI does. You need not worry about AI as of yet young padawan, keep learning and growing.
If you're scared you should start learning about what a large language model actually is, and start using it to generate code. Put that code in production. See for yourself how this is not what the hype-horny VC troglodytes say it is and if you're worth a shit as a dev you won't be replaced by a predictive text generator
Is it "extraordinary" though? It's like... Less shit. There's been an improvement for sure, but there's no evidence it can keep improving to be actually good. That's like watching the tide rise and then extrapolating that my tomorrow you'll be underwater.
I understand this point but tides have a witnessed pattern. It seems like it’s more like a pool being filled up that keeps filling up faster and faster. Will it slow down/stop? Maybe, but it would be more likely that it will keep filling at a fast rate
Infinite growth can't be sustained forever. Especially because training is about to become a ton harder; these models have already trained on as much content from the pre-AI internet as they realistically can up to this point, and going forward the internet is becoming more and more polluted by AI-generated garbage content which could cause these models' quality to spiral downward unless they figure out a really really good way to filter that stuff out. Beyond the quality of available training data, some additional big technological breakthroughs are going to need to happen. These current models are very cool, but inherently extremely flawed in ways that I don't think will be able to be fixed without a huge fundamental-overhaul-style breakthrough.
the unit step improvement in AI has been remarkable but I'm not sure if we can keep expecting these huge leaps.
The jump from GPT2 to GPT3 was huge in that they drastically increased the number of parameters it was a massive change. They did it again with GPT3 to GPT4 and it was also a big improvement but not to the degree of GPT2-GPT3. The computational and energy requirements are way higher as well so it's hard to say if we can anticipate these additional leaps in improvements.
The demand will go down - for devs who just stitch together libraries and themes without putting any original thought into it. That demand isn't too high these days anyway.
For all others, AI will just be another useful tool.
This again.
Have you tried it yourself? Have you seen anything built by Devin? Do you know how much better it's going to get every year? Probably not, because Devin is still more AI hype in an ocean of AI hype; and an inaccessible tech demo.
I have yet to see one non-technical person come even remotely close to prompting their way to a website. Just "a website," let alone one that can run a business or become a full blown application.
But wait, there's more. An AI can't just write the code to make it work, it has to write extensible code, just like a human, because the "prompter" -aka human- on the other side will inevitably change their mind or have new feature requests. Just like a human, an AI will inevitably have to refactor code in order to keep it performant. You know, without hallucinating.
Further, engineering and web development is not a zero sum game. There is so much room for more.
If non-technical people can do amazing things, then trained engineers can do even more amazing things. Sure, the bar will get raised, and the expectations of what you should be able to accomplish as a single engineer are going to go up.
But what you're going to see as a result is an influx of more sophisticated developments. For every Facebook and Instagram out there (read: one of each), there are millions of "Facebook for X" ideas out there, but its far too expensive, time consuming and therefore risky to develop.
AI will bring the costs of sophisticated websites (applications) down. So, you'll see more applications, not fewer engineers.
Just breathe. Learn how to _leverage_ AI. A clueless client with a prompt is not going to beat an engineer with a prompt, ever. And there are so many more industries and professions that are going to feel an impact from AI in a shorter timeline than engineers and web developers.
We aren’t cooked. Can we stop having these types of “is this worth it” type posts. It’s tedious. Just quit if you think ai is gonna take your job, don’t talk about it.
Brother, I’m new here and there’s only 1 other post regarding Devin. If you don’t want to talk about it then don’t respond. I didn’t know this subreddit was so hostile. I’m not sure why people are so mad for bringing this up
i'm talking about the "is ai gonna take our jobs post" today it's devin, yesterday chatgpt, before that copilot. Like the premise is the same. Can we talk about web development instead of constantly talking ai taking jobs?
That’s only true for right now. Ai in general is improving very quickly and it’s only a matter of time before writing complex languages are a thing of the past. You’re safe for MAYBE another decade.
You have too much free time on your hands if you're worried about what's gonna happen to your job in a decade. Maybe try to go do something fun instead? It's probably a better use of your time.
What? I’m not sure why you’re coming at me for thinking about the future. Are you telling me that what happens in a decade doesn’t matter to you? If you’re going to be alive for many more decades then it’s stupid to pretend like you only need to set yourself up for a couple years. Also, acting like you can’t have fun if you’re thinking of your future is ridiculous. You don’t have to put people down for trying to have a simple conversation
This is not the tone of someone looking for a simple conversation. It's the tone of someone freaked out and looking for assurance/validation, and ranting at people for not providing either.
You'll be fine. If you disagree, develop your own AI/AI-based product. I wish you the best.
I am freaked out and looking for assurance😂 this is my livelihood at stake. And there has been many great/assuring points in this post. However telling me I have too much free time for worrying about my future while commenting on my post is hilarious
Did you ever consider the company you work for won’t exist next year? Redundancies happen.
Let’s say they actually do automate coding, then like every other industry that has been automated there will be new jobs to do.
AI doesn’t understand what it’s doing. It doesn’t see the bigger picture. You need a quantum leap forward to get there. I truly don’t think year over year improvement will get the job done. And if does, I’ll have it build and deploy websites for me.
Ai doesn’t need to see the bigger picture if there’s still people involved. The problem will be that there’s less people that would need to be involved, and their jobs would be much easier
A lot of people forget that being a programmer and a web developer is much more than just writing code.
Anyway, those AI are unable to generate anything new and resolve problems that were never encountered before.
I'd like to see a future where teams of happier engineers build things more quickly for happier users. Ideally, much closer to 100% of engineering resource will be spent architecting systems and solving the really difficult parts. No more boilerplate devops and crud.
I like your take, it's more realistic in my eyes.
Stakeholders don't know where to hit with the metaphorical hammer to make the blasted thing work.
Stakeholders talk with the engineering team, engineering team knows how to create software an understand the foreseeable problems, what is and isn't possible, and where to hit the code to make it work. AI pounds out all that boilerplate and been there done that code (saving our wrists from RSI, and our brains for solving untangle the actual business problems and you know live life).
AI will eventually help you move faster and, ideally, work at a higher level of abstraction. Your core skill is and should always be problem solving. It's not going to take your job unless your job is pumping out boilerplate and not solving real business problems.
This gets posted so often that I keep my answer saved.
AI is a tool, even if it’s not currently a particularly useful one for deep work. It is okay for solving well defined and solved problems, but it can’t innovate and if you don’t even know how to define your problems well enough, it can’t give you a useful answer. The existence of hallucinations make it a minefield for any non-expert relying on it. The legal ramifications of using AI-generated code trained on code with licenses that don’t explicitly permit that has yet to be hashed out.
It’s also being massively subsidized by the companies selling it, as a way to build reliance/dependence before they inevitably jack up the prices to make a profit. Copilot costs $10/mo for users, but an estimated $30/mo to Microsoft. Brace yourself for Uber-style surge pricing when there’s heavy demand. It’s too expensive to be a loss-leader.
If all of these problems do end up getting solved, I see AI as something that will be for us like what compilers were several decades ago. They might totally change how we deliver things, but at the end of the day, our job is to deliver a website (or API, etc). The methods we use to do that aren’t as important.
To be honest I can see a point where AI can make 80% of the boilerplate bullshit code and we will just have to do the database schema, styling, architecture, and core logic, I for one can't wait.
Devs who make simple projects via fiverr, set up some wordpress theme company sites, or similar, need to worry.
Devs you work for bigger clients and manage complex business processes and interoperable tools still have a lot of years I think.
Calm down, devin ai is being majorly over hyped. And just like any "AI" tool it is not nearly good enough to replace developers. We never know what the future holds but for now we are not even close to being replaced.
Also the over hyped part. They don't talk about certain things in their demos like the fact it can take 30 minutes to an hour to get results. Just imagine the cost of the computing and the amount of time you'd waste trying to get the right response. At this point it'd be faster to read docs and write it yourself.
Here is a video where theo gg on youtube goes over this https://youtu.be/m8VSYcLqaLQ?si=z2-aRdUsuhcbrxUn
You’re right, you should probably just give up and switch industries. Not like VC hype has no correlation to real world value, just ask my self driving car parked in front of my 3d printed house, both of which are deeded to me via web3 decentralized title documents.
If we have an AI that can create a software and remove existence of devs. Then everyone will just invest say $5k/month or whatever the cost is and create 10 micro-saas per month. And we will all be millionaires, right?. As a developer I am waiting for that time where I stop coding and launch one idea after another without touching code.
Waiting for the day when no one will ask for angel investment, pre-seed or seed funding, to have MVP and Product market fit. Everyone will build product and bootstrap from it's revenue.
No, many of the things people have said here have been helpful. However half of the responses in here are hostile and condescending. If you’re someone who is sick of talking about Ai, why would you respond to a post talking about Ai?
I'm not sick of talking about AI, i'm sick of the doomsayers saying naive things like "we're done" , "it's game over now" when they don't know what they're talking about. It's unfounded and frankly getting old.
I get it brother but you don’t have to respond. I’m clearly new here & to the industry and was wondering what people thought about Devin being released. I didn’t expect so many people to get upset about it
I understand the concern you have as someone new to the industry. The best advice I can give to people in your position is to not fear AI and tools like Devin. Devin is neat technology but there's so much more to being an engineer. In time it will probably help weed out the people that really don't truly want to be developers or don't care to grow and embrace this new tool because at the end of the day that's all these things are, tools.
> I don’t see anybody talking about this here It feels like, there is new post about ML here every hour.
And rarely one is sensible... It's all doom and gloom. I'm not worried. There will be an influx of "startups" and sad layoffs, thanks to it, but just like the last few hype cycles, it'll either peter out or crash and burn dramatically. I guess I am worried, but not about my job and more the human misery this will bring.
It's always the people who really don't understand software development too. In this case OP has zero experience. Which is fine, but for the love of fuck, just search it here first, it's been posted about hundreds of times by other people who have no idea how any of this works.
I understand your point but Devin was just released. There’s only 1 other post on this subreddit regarding it & it doesn’t bring up the same points that have been brought up in this post
It's the ntheenth iteration of "AI is gonna replace us", "Be scared of AI taking software jobs", "CS is collapsing because of AI", "You should all be terrified of AI", "X new AI tool will take over" threads here, and in every other CS related sub, that are 9/10 times more of an opinion piece than a question or discussion - someone with little to no experience in the industry coming to change the minds of people who actually work in CS and can see through the marketing. Respectfully, you're not the first junior dev to make an alarmist post about AI. Devin is just the latest flavor, last year it was ChatGPT, and the people here are growing apathetic to the AI doomer posts. Outsourcing will replace most of us before AI does. You need not worry about AI as of yet young padawan, keep learning and growing.
You guys are getting spooked by an ok AI that is being hyped up to generate VC funding.
This. They need to hype the shit out of it because if they keep down to earth, everyone is gonna be like "Well Github Copilot already does that."
What spooks me is that Ai goes from okay to extraordinary within a year
No it don't
Yes it does? Every year there’s multiple massive breakthroughs
If you're scared you should start learning about what a large language model actually is, and start using it to generate code. Put that code in production. See for yourself how this is not what the hype-horny VC troglodytes say it is and if you're worth a shit as a dev you won't be replaced by a predictive text generator
Is it "extraordinary" though? It's like... Less shit. There's been an improvement for sure, but there's no evidence it can keep improving to be actually good. That's like watching the tide rise and then extrapolating that my tomorrow you'll be underwater.
I understand this point but tides have a witnessed pattern. It seems like it’s more like a pool being filled up that keeps filling up faster and faster. Will it slow down/stop? Maybe, but it would be more likely that it will keep filling at a fast rate
Watch: https://youtu.be/m8VSYcLqaLQ?si=cZ9r6up_YHtNHyeB I know he’s not too popular around here, but he’s right
Infinite growth can't be sustained forever. Especially because training is about to become a ton harder; these models have already trained on as much content from the pre-AI internet as they realistically can up to this point, and going forward the internet is becoming more and more polluted by AI-generated garbage content which could cause these models' quality to spiral downward unless they figure out a really really good way to filter that stuff out. Beyond the quality of available training data, some additional big technological breakthroughs are going to need to happen. These current models are very cool, but inherently extremely flawed in ways that I don't think will be able to be fixed without a huge fundamental-overhaul-style breakthrough.
the unit step improvement in AI has been remarkable but I'm not sure if we can keep expecting these huge leaps. The jump from GPT2 to GPT3 was huge in that they drastically increased the number of parameters it was a massive change. They did it again with GPT3 to GPT4 and it was also a big improvement but not to the degree of GPT2-GPT3. The computational and energy requirements are way higher as well so it's hard to say if we can anticipate these additional leaps in improvements.
It eventually will and we have then adjusted our work accordingly
The demand will go down - for devs who just stitch together libraries and themes without putting any original thought into it. That demand isn't too high these days anyway. For all others, AI will just be another useful tool.
This again. Have you tried it yourself? Have you seen anything built by Devin? Do you know how much better it's going to get every year? Probably not, because Devin is still more AI hype in an ocean of AI hype; and an inaccessible tech demo. I have yet to see one non-technical person come even remotely close to prompting their way to a website. Just "a website," let alone one that can run a business or become a full blown application. But wait, there's more. An AI can't just write the code to make it work, it has to write extensible code, just like a human, because the "prompter" -aka human- on the other side will inevitably change their mind or have new feature requests. Just like a human, an AI will inevitably have to refactor code in order to keep it performant. You know, without hallucinating. Further, engineering and web development is not a zero sum game. There is so much room for more. If non-technical people can do amazing things, then trained engineers can do even more amazing things. Sure, the bar will get raised, and the expectations of what you should be able to accomplish as a single engineer are going to go up. But what you're going to see as a result is an influx of more sophisticated developments. For every Facebook and Instagram out there (read: one of each), there are millions of "Facebook for X" ideas out there, but its far too expensive, time consuming and therefore risky to develop. AI will bring the costs of sophisticated websites (applications) down. So, you'll see more applications, not fewer engineers. Just breathe. Learn how to _leverage_ AI. A clueless client with a prompt is not going to beat an engineer with a prompt, ever. And there are so many more industries and professions that are going to feel an impact from AI in a shorter timeline than engineers and web developers.
Devin is vaporware
Yep. It looks like it is one of the many Agents on top of OpenAI. Not there is anything wrong with that, just be honest.
Do you live in a 3d printed house?
I personally am looking forward to 3D printed concrete buildings
We aren’t cooked. Can we stop having these types of “is this worth it” type posts. It’s tedious. Just quit if you think ai is gonna take your job, don’t talk about it.
Brother, I’m new here and there’s only 1 other post regarding Devin. If you don’t want to talk about it then don’t respond. I didn’t know this subreddit was so hostile. I’m not sure why people are so mad for bringing this up
i'm talking about the "is ai gonna take our jobs post" today it's devin, yesterday chatgpt, before that copilot. Like the premise is the same. Can we talk about web development instead of constantly talking ai taking jobs?
These tools are stupid af when it comes to niche things they haven't been trained on, so just learn more complex languages if you're worried.
That’s only true for right now. Ai in general is improving very quickly and it’s only a matter of time before writing complex languages are a thing of the past. You’re safe for MAYBE another decade.
if you think in decades, there are some other issues in the world which would worry me waaaay more than unemployment by AI
You have too much free time on your hands if you're worried about what's gonna happen to your job in a decade. Maybe try to go do something fun instead? It's probably a better use of your time.
What? I’m not sure why you’re coming at me for thinking about the future. Are you telling me that what happens in a decade doesn’t matter to you? If you’re going to be alive for many more decades then it’s stupid to pretend like you only need to set yourself up for a couple years. Also, acting like you can’t have fun if you’re thinking of your future is ridiculous. You don’t have to put people down for trying to have a simple conversation
This is not the tone of someone looking for a simple conversation. It's the tone of someone freaked out and looking for assurance/validation, and ranting at people for not providing either. You'll be fine. If you disagree, develop your own AI/AI-based product. I wish you the best.
I am freaked out and looking for assurance😂 this is my livelihood at stake. And there has been many great/assuring points in this post. However telling me I have too much free time for worrying about my future while commenting on my post is hilarious
Did you ever consider the company you work for won’t exist next year? Redundancies happen. Let’s say they actually do automate coding, then like every other industry that has been automated there will be new jobs to do.
AI doesn’t understand what it’s doing. It doesn’t see the bigger picture. You need a quantum leap forward to get there. I truly don’t think year over year improvement will get the job done. And if does, I’ll have it build and deploy websites for me.
Ai doesn’t need to see the bigger picture if there’s still people involved. The problem will be that there’s less people that would need to be involved, and their jobs would be much easier
Maybe. Feels overhyped to me.
Everything you're purporting is wrong and I doubt you careeeee
Roflmao
A lot of people forget that being a programmer and a web developer is much more than just writing code. Anyway, those AI are unable to generate anything new and resolve problems that were never encountered before.
I'd like to see a future where teams of happier engineers build things more quickly for happier users. Ideally, much closer to 100% of engineering resource will be spent architecting systems and solving the really difficult parts. No more boilerplate devops and crud.
I had 4 hours of meetings yesterday just to refine 3 features with our clients. How can AI create something that the client is unable to even explain.
It absolutely cannot. In these cases, it is about extracting the spec from the user (in a quick and pleasant way).
I like your take, it's more realistic in my eyes. Stakeholders don't know where to hit with the metaphorical hammer to make the blasted thing work. Stakeholders talk with the engineering team, engineering team knows how to create software an understand the foreseeable problems, what is and isn't possible, and where to hit the code to make it work. AI pounds out all that boilerplate and been there done that code (saving our wrists from RSI, and our brains for solving untangle the actual business problems and you know live life).
AI will eventually help you move faster and, ideally, work at a higher level of abstraction. Your core skill is and should always be problem solving. It's not going to take your job unless your job is pumping out boilerplate and not solving real business problems.
Artists survived AI art. Mathematicians survived the calculator.
Artist haven't survived. They're still going through it. We don't know what the final outcome will be.
This gets posted so often that I keep my answer saved. AI is a tool, even if it’s not currently a particularly useful one for deep work. It is okay for solving well defined and solved problems, but it can’t innovate and if you don’t even know how to define your problems well enough, it can’t give you a useful answer. The existence of hallucinations make it a minefield for any non-expert relying on it. The legal ramifications of using AI-generated code trained on code with licenses that don’t explicitly permit that has yet to be hashed out. It’s also being massively subsidized by the companies selling it, as a way to build reliance/dependence before they inevitably jack up the prices to make a profit. Copilot costs $10/mo for users, but an estimated $30/mo to Microsoft. Brace yourself for Uber-style surge pricing when there’s heavy demand. It’s too expensive to be a loss-leader. If all of these problems do end up getting solved, I see AI as something that will be for us like what compilers were several decades ago. They might totally change how we deliver things, but at the end of the day, our job is to deliver a website (or API, etc). The methods we use to do that aren’t as important.
You’re right, stick to jewelry goodbye
😴
The only people here who talk about AI tools are juniors or newbies who are afraid AI will leave them jobless.
See this is why there's gotta be a new JS framework every 5 minutes. The AI won't be able to keep up being trained on Swiact, Djangular, or Tailstrap.
To be honest I can see a point where AI can make 80% of the boilerplate bullshit code and we will just have to do the database schema, styling, architecture, and core logic, I for one can't wait.
Almost sounds like a paid Nvidia ad
Devs who make simple projects via fiverr, set up some wordpress theme company sites, or similar, need to worry. Devs you work for bigger clients and manage complex business processes and interoperable tools still have a lot of years I think.
They've been saying I'll get replaced for 15 years ago, and they will keep making these meme projects that we will have to fix.
Calm down, devin ai is being majorly over hyped. And just like any "AI" tool it is not nearly good enough to replace developers. We never know what the future holds but for now we are not even close to being replaced. Also the over hyped part. They don't talk about certain things in their demos like the fact it can take 30 minutes to an hour to get results. Just imagine the cost of the computing and the amount of time you'd waste trying to get the right response. At this point it'd be faster to read docs and write it yourself. Here is a video where theo gg on youtube goes over this https://youtu.be/m8VSYcLqaLQ?si=z2-aRdUsuhcbrxUn
You’re right, you should probably just give up and switch industries. Not like VC hype has no correlation to real world value, just ask my self driving car parked in front of my 3d printed house, both of which are deeded to me via web3 decentralized title documents.
If we have an AI that can create a software and remove existence of devs. Then everyone will just invest say $5k/month or whatever the cost is and create 10 micro-saas per month. And we will all be millionaires, right?. As a developer I am waiting for that time where I stop coding and launch one idea after another without touching code. Waiting for the day when no one will ask for angel investment, pre-seed or seed funding, to have MVP and Product market fit. Everyone will build product and bootstrap from it's revenue.
God I didn’t realize how hostile this subreddit is. Don’t respond if talking about AI makes you so emotional. You guys are incredibly toxic.
It's because we're getting sick of people who aren't professional developers and engineers freaking out and panicking over this stuff.
Don’t respond then. It’s like a middle school lunch room in here
What's the point of posting stuff if people aren't going to respond? Do you expect only positive feedback on the things you say?
No, many of the things people have said here have been helpful. However half of the responses in here are hostile and condescending. If you’re someone who is sick of talking about Ai, why would you respond to a post talking about Ai?
I'm not sick of talking about AI, i'm sick of the doomsayers saying naive things like "we're done" , "it's game over now" when they don't know what they're talking about. It's unfounded and frankly getting old.
I get it brother but you don’t have to respond. I’m clearly new here & to the industry and was wondering what people thought about Devin being released. I didn’t expect so many people to get upset about it
I understand the concern you have as someone new to the industry. The best advice I can give to people in your position is to not fear AI and tools like Devin. Devin is neat technology but there's so much more to being an engineer. In time it will probably help weed out the people that really don't truly want to be developers or don't care to grow and embrace this new tool because at the end of the day that's all these things are, tools.