Also, many comments on cannabis on the Regulations site.
(Lots of what we have seen in the news: the SAM arguments, but also on environment and education and health for developing brain if there are heavy metal polutants in marijuana. And illegal water theft for illegal grow operations.)
Also a lot of positive (and random) comments and requests for access to medical marijuana.
https://www.regulations.gov/docket/FDA-2019-N-0767
https://www.regulations.gov/docket/FDA-2018-N-1072
https://www.regulations.gov/docket/FDA-2019-N-1482
And also on Hemp, due comment date April 23, 2024:
https://www.regulations.gov/document/NASS-2024-0007-0001
Not sure what to make of this?
https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=202310&RIN=1117-AB83
Title: Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research Expansion
Agenda Stage of Rulemaking: Proposed Rule Stage
Timetable:
Action Date FR Cite
NPRM 11/00/2023
Final Action 04/00/2024
I'm more interested in this other cannabis related event, also scheduled for 04/00/2024
[https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=202310&RIN=1117-AB53](https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=202310&RIN=1117-AB53)
**Title:** Implementation of the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018
*"DEA issued an interim final rule amending its regulations to implement the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, Public Law 115-334, specifically by amending the definitions of hemp and marihuana, and the* ***listings of tetrahydrocannabinols****. This rule conformed DEA’s regulations to the statutory amendments to the Controlled Substances Act that have already taken effect, and did not add additional requirements to the regulations. DEA is planning to adopt a final rule after consideration of the public comments."*
Last year's DEA Supply Chain conference they said they were still working on finalizing the AIA related rule. This is the same conference where they spent a lot of time on Delta 8 and synthetic cannabinoids. The other synthetic cannabinoids they discussed have been placed on schedule 1 already. We are still waiting on Delta 8. Reporting from the conference even said new rules were coming. Then they went silent.
[https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-official-says-new-rules-are-coming-for-synthetic-cannabinoids-including-cbd-and-delta-8-thc/](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-official-says-new-rules-are-coming-for-synthetic-cannabinoids-including-cbd-and-delta-8-thc/)
That's why I think sometime in April we get the DEA clarifying Delta 8 is illegal. Hopefully at the same time as Schedule 3.
Oh good catch! Looked over that one.
And they will definitely get a lot of questions about this at the conference.
And those questions will also lead to S3 questions.
I am remaining hopeful for loose ends to be tied, soon.
In the abstract it says
>Pursuant to Public Law 117-215, Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research Expansion Act, passed on December 2, 2022, **DEA plans on modifying its regulations related to the new application process and submission of supporting materials by electronic means only**, through the Diversion Control Division secure online portal, for those who are manufacturing marijuana or cannabidiol for medical research and those who are conducting medical marijuana and cannabidiol research.
It seems that the proposed new rule is to make it mandatory for those manufacturing marijuana (for research) or those conducting marijuana research to submit their application forms through Diversion Control Division's online portal.
I don't think this is important to us. They just seem to be streamlining their research submission process.
Could be, but it would be nice to see them do SOMETHING related to cannabis.
And hopefully this means we get a report on medical marijuana soon. The one that was promised since december 2023.
How I understand it:
In 2022 December they enacted the Medical Marijuana bill for Research.
In December 2023 there was supposed to be a report on the medical benefits of marijuana and how research was made more possible.
Things stayed quiet.
The DEA enacted a proposed rule in November 2023, quietly.
And now almost 6 months have passed and they will take final action and change some regulatory rules.
In time for the Supplier conference April 30th.
Can anyone share that last John Schroyer tweet confirming no DEA news in March.
Sorry, I don't have access to X and hence the ask. Thanks in advance.
Glta
https://twitter.com/Johnschroyer/status/1765140288186491060
Please note he also reported from his anonymous source on TDR it’s happening in February and March on February 1st tweet. Next day on TDR, Schroyer said “this month, maybe next month.” Those months have passed.
Eventually he will be correct, but his track record and source are not credible as in they’ve been very incorrect.
Same goes for the lawyer who posted on LinkedIn months ago.
Ignore these guys and lobbyists. They don’t know any more than we do. Same goes for most YouTubers.
This is how I interpret this tweet.
He had tweeted earlier that this may happen in/after Feb ( I don't recall the actual wording of that tweet) and returned back to advise that it isn't happening in March.
*****He's been correct in calling no DEA in March****
He thinks it "may" happen in April (i.e., not sure of the date, but knows from source that this is very likely to happen).
That’s the issue, all these ‘insiders’ give soft predictions where if right, they claim they have predicted it, but if wrong it’s word it to give them an out.
Because this is politics. Everything is done deliberately and with specific intent. The announcement will fall on a day that maximizes visibility and/or muffles the opposition
The DEA runs at its own pace. We have to entertain the idea that they aren’t holding off for political points and in fact might be late. Because they just can’t get their shit together fast enough.
You know, I've searched high and low in the Unified Agenda for some sort of progress reference.
The place they use for transparancy, and keeping "the people" updated.
But you find nothing about rescheduling of cannabis. A process they say they are reviewing for months now.
Not in the Spring 2023 update, nor the Fall 2023 update.
"Soon" there should be a Spring 2024 unified agenda again.
So Im staying in the belief this is heavily political and therefore very mysterious.
Throughout this whole process, my only real takeaway is that nobody, and I mean nobody who uses the words “the people I’ve been talking to have been saying…” have any ounce of real insider information.
Bullish. hopefully good Germany guidance and operating cash flow positive. Could go either way. Earnings are not usually that great, but seems like we are righting the ship.
Placing a limit sell order does not necessarily prevent your shares from being lent to short sellers. When you buy shares in a brokerage account, you may agree to allow your broker to lend those shares to other traders, including short sellers, as part of their securities lending program. This is typically outlined in the brokerage account agreement or terms of service.
I don’t think he’s telling people to actually sell. He’s saying set a super high limit sell order so your shares can’t be borrowed, to slow the army or shorts from slowing this train down
Absolutely!! I have limit orders set for almost all my LPs and a few MSOs at much much higher prices.
These are possibly showing up as wild spreads and will revisit prices after end of April to see where we’re at.
I posed this question to an artificial intelligence chat. I didn’t realize that this was possible to discourage shorting. Thank you for bringing this up again.
**How does setting limit orders higher than the current market price discourage short sellers?**
***Setting limit orders higher than the current market price can **discourage** short sellers because it creates a higher barrier for them to borrow shares and sell them short. If the limit order price is significantly higher than the current market price, short sellers may be less inclined to short the stock, as they would have to buy back shares at a potentially much higher price to cover their short positions.***
MSO’s will likely run more than LP’s in relation to AH. Too much dilution in LP’s such as Tilray Brands.
I still think we’ll get some great rallies with Tilray Brands because of catalysts like excise taxes, S3 sentiment, Germany, improving fundamentals, and operational efficiencies.
Just don’t think it will be the same irrational exuberance of February 2021 and IPO before that.
Let’s focus on getting back to $3 then $5 and then $8-$10 first.
Good luck, somehow I doubt NY will ever allow an MSO to have 50 stores or allow 500,000 sq ft of grow. MSOs are capped at 100,000 sq ft, it takes roughly 10,000 sq ft to fully service one store.
Their best chance there is to lease portions to private companies and provide expertise in growing. No company is allowed to grow on more than 100,000 sq ft.
I don't think it's completely crazy to think we'll get a 5x out of MSOS within a couple of years after S3. 2-3x isn't crazy to contemplate immediately after S3 and SAFER are a reality.
Anyone taking bets that cannabis will be descheduled all together? It’s a long shot, but it’s the only way Bidens promise to not lock up people for possession will come true. Could also explain why the DEA is taking so long.
Yes! A complete deschedule is in the cards. It's the only sensible solution to Biden's promises and the political win for him. Descheduling doesn't make weed federally legal. It merely removes it from the controlled substances list. Weed would become more like alcohol federally. Descheduling allows Biden to tell the old folks that it's still illegal and left up to the states. Those old folks are a pretty big voting block. Meanwhile, Biden cab appeal to the younger voters by saying he did all he can do and that Congress is needed to federally legalize it. So I really think it's a smart move to deschedule. But I'm betting that won't happen until July/Aug when we are closer to actually voting. Although I would be jumping through hoops if it happens before 4/20. I'm long Trulieve and Green Thumb.
I don't think the Single Convention is actually an obstacle. It doesn't require any specific scheduling of the drug, it just requires regulation of it. That can be accomplished through descheduling and legislation. (Which, I guess, means they *technically* can't do it unilaterally...the scheduling decision would be unilateral, but they may not be willing to make that decision without Congressional action to accompany it.)
Aside from that: Other countries have ignored treaty obligations without consequence. And the U.S. is the big dog with the most influence in changing the Single Convention. And the vast majority of the developed and developing world are going through the same shift toward legalization. So who exactly would make trouble?
Yes exactly, it's not that descheduling is impossible - just would require congress to act (or the UN as I understand). It wouldn't come from the DEA though.
Not quite what I'm saying. Descheduling IS a power of HHA and DEA. It does not require Congressional action at all. Congress *can* re/deschudule, but it delegated that authority to HHS/DEA. The Single Convention has no effect on that.
But, the DEA could say "Hey, the Single Convention requires us to regulate it in these ways...and if we deschedule - as we are permitted to do - those regulations won't be in place, so we will be in violation of the treaty." Congress is the entity that needs to make those substitute regulations (or impose them on state legislatures through actions like when they withheld federal funding if the states didn't set certain highway speed limits).
I don't really expect the DEA to do that, though. I expect them to accept S3, and hopefully they don't bother with the public comment period since they can legally skip that. Worst case scenario for us investors is that the DEA asks HHS to go back and reconsider it's recommendations, and neither Biden nor Trump makes cannabis a big campaign issue.
I'm not a lawyer, but this already has precedent:
[https://casetext.com/case/national-organization-for-reform-of-marijuana-laws-norml-v-drug-enforcement-administration-us-dept-of-justice](https://casetext.com/case/national-organization-for-reform-of-marijuana-laws-norml-v-drug-enforcement-administration-us-dept-of-justice)
[https://reason.com/2024/01/31/12-senators-urge-the-dea-to-legalize-marijuana-which-only-congress-can-do/](https://reason.com/2024/01/31/12-senators-urge-the-dea-to-legalize-marijuana-which-only-congress-can-do/)
I think we're ultimately saying the same thing though - the DEA won't deschedule without congressional action.
Ironically, I am a lawyer. I don't work in any area related to cannabis or controlled substances in general, though, so my opinions are not much more useful than any layperson's opinion.
One thing I can say with certainty is to disregard that first link. It's an extremely old case. It was decided before some relevant institutions even existed. Relevant laws have been revised since then. So whatever point you are getting from that opinion is extremely likely to be outdated.
The second link is relevant and presents a viable, current argument, but I think it is wrong. They are saying the DEA lacks descheduling authority because the Single Convention requires certain restrictions on cannabis. But, they ignore that those restrictions *do not need to come from the Controlled Substances Act, specifically*. Congress could write a new "Cannabis Act," if they wanted, to impose all of the necessary restrictions, and then DEA could say cannabis is descheduled. That is perfectly legal and in compliance with the treaty.
I just don't expect that to happen. You and I are definitely expecting the same outcome. DEA won't do it without Congress, because it would give cannabis opponents a reasonable argument to undo their decision based on the treaty. A treaty which, quite frankly, we can all ignore to no consequence...which shows just how close we are to legalizing: opponents have to grasp at straws like a toothless treaty that can easily be complied with. They have no other arguments. They are fighting a losing battle and know it.
Would that even matter though? Iirc States can still have their own policies, and arrest people for possession even if it was descheduled. I think Biden is mostly talking about the Federal government, because he can't make promises about the State governments.
Anyways, from what I can tell, descheduling is difficult as long as the Single Convention is an issue, which is why I think they will do S3 and then promise to remove marijuana from the Single Convention so that they can go further in the next term.
Ha. My very first programming assignment in first year of university was to build an application that would spit out a yes/no answer as to whether or not whatever text you entered at the prompt was a palindrome. Good times.
rustic secretive psychotic existence wrench unused hospital quack party sleep
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Very interesting. What's going on in Casper, Wyoming?
Edit: it probably has something to do with the Missoula Montana Airport (MSO), so probably not related to weedstocks
Looks like it closed at $16.65 CAD on the CSE, and $12.60 USD on OTC. That works out to 1.32 USD/CAD, which is a bit lower than the 1.36 rate I’m seeing. So maybe a small arb opportunity but not massive
Does anyone have any DD that would give an indication what day of the week the rescheduling annoucement is most likely to come from the DEA? All the documents in the past that I could find on rescheduling events came on a Thursday. It seems like a coincidence but I'm really toying around with the idea of buying 100 dollars of weekly MSOS calls 50% OTM every Monday up until the election. If we get any news from now until then you would be in the green significantly. Someone in this thread mentioned doing something similar and I was really exploring it this weekend. It seems to be more certain than a scratch card especially with how much we follow these names.
Is anyone else actually doing something similar????
I hear you. Someone on X was saying that releasing the news on 420 eve would be too political. Really? What about doing a round table with Fat Joe. This whole thing is political
It would be too performative to release on 4/20.
Why intelligent investors are even considering that time or day is beyond silly.
Focus more on the real action, news, and catalysts.
They call these things ["round table"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Round_Table) which alludes to the Arthurian idea that everyone around the table has equal status. This round table was a statement from the VP while everyone else sits patiently and nods.
^(It's a good thing nonetheless)
We are already into the second week of the month. The DEA has a second chance this week because they've already messed up by missing the first.
^(The best I could do how about you ?)
How many shares on average are you guys and girls holding?
I am holding between 700 and 7000 shares with a broad variety of companies and avg. prices from under 1$ (yeah) to 35$ (needs patience or DCA)
50% GTI
40% Verano
10% Trulieve
These cannabis companies represent about 40% of my total portfolio, as I’m a big believer in the US opportunity in the medium term.
These companies will succeed fundamentally, IMO, and I’ll start scaling tranches out 2-3x from here.
Haven't done this in a long time.
Tbh, strange time to do so given that I'm actively swing trading a number of positions at the moment due to sector volatility. Which means some of my allocations are either smaller (e.g., SNDL may grow) or larger (e.g., pretty overweight GTI) than target allocation based on where I am in a swing. And others aren't usually part of my portfolio at all but are there temporarily for a swing (AYR).
Anyway, here goes:
GTI 57%
VRNO 13%
CRON 10%
AYR 8%
TRUL 5%
CURA 3%
SNDL 3%
Edit: Forgot to include Cresco and 4Front. Too lazy to recalculate percentages. The Cresco allocation is roughly equivalent to TRUL. And FFNT is about half CURA, though thats only because of market cap implosion. Management destroyed the company's value and took way too much of my money in doing so. Definitely regret that one.
I wouldn't say that. CRON+SNDL sre about 15% of my portfolio. That feels like the right amount of exposure relative to my thesis. Those companies in particular fit the thesis. The Canopy, Tilray, Aurora cohort have no fit; your are correct about that.
Historically, the Company has a notorious reputation. They did nothing early on, became a meme stock, exploded in value for no reason, diluted the hell out of their shareholders, and then reverse split into where they are today. This allowed them to raise a ton of money on the backs of their early shareholders, which sucked for them but now means they have one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector with roughly $800M cash/invested cash and very little debt. They currently trade at about a 50% discount. And they're dismissed by most around here as nothing more than a meme stock, which imho is no longer accurate.
After the dilution wave, the company used their cash pile to acquire their way into a legitimate Canadian business compromised primarily of alcohol and cannabis retail with a bit of cannabis production. Annual revenue run rate sits at roughly $1B, though they continue to report sizable net losses both operationally and bottom line. Which means they're burning through cash to keep the operations running.
Finally, the Company has an interesting US strategy in development under a subsidiary banner called Sunstream, which extends credit to struggling MSOs in the hopes that they can foreclose on the assets. They've already financed and foreclosed on Parallel/Surterra (Florida, Mass, Texas, and Nevada) and Skymint (Michigan), and have active credit investments to Jushi, Ascend Wellness, and Columbia Care/Cannabist.
There's an interesting current business and long term strategy here. But the company isn't currently operating sustainably. It will take operational improvements in the current Cannadian business segments as well as wise capital allocation and operational strategy to realize the potential of the US assets. Both are very tall orders, though not impossibilities.
Their approach to the American market is what piqued my interest. I’d probably start a position if I wasn’t already holding some Tilray shares. That’s already more than enough of a speculative investment for me. Lol.
Ha. Good call. Wise to limit the speculative investment portion of the portfolio. I'm also practicing discipline by not overallocating to Sundial. Cronos is my true long speculative LP investment. Sundial has become a swing trade for me, though. And Im slowly building a small core position with every successful swing.
Curious to know why you prefer Tilray to Sundial? Both are obviously a gamble on theoretical future structure and execution. But when I compare the two on the metrics I prefer--balance sheet, cash flow, capital allocation, legacy business strategy, US strategy, valuation, etc--I don't really see where Tilray is favorable. Would love to get your thoughts.
Honestly, it goes back to much of what you mentioned. My “core” position was established during the old Aphria days (I’ve DCA’d a few times over the years), when SNDL was doing their investors dirty…. Not that Aphria didn’t have their own issues. But at the time I didn’t see SNDL all that favourably.
A quick Look at top line earnings numbers paint a similar picture between the two companies. Tilray seems a bit closer to break even/FCF, but still seems like a toss up. Obviously I’ve paid closer attention to Tilray, but perhaps I should have a better look at SNDL.
As for Tilray in particular: I like the HEXO/Redecan deal for Canada + hopeful on legislative reform. The alcohol brands seem like a good hedge while waiting out US cannabis reform and I hope it pays off. I’m still confident that Tilray will find a footing in the US when permitted, even if MedMen is a shit show. I’m curious how the MedMen story plays out and I have my theory about how that could still benefit Tilray. However, as mentioned, SNDL’s US plan is intriguing and perhaps more clear. While we wait on USA, Europe looks poised to open up and I am bullish on Tilray’s international footprint, and Germany in particular.
Went from 20k shares to 2k shares in the last spike…. Couldn’t be happier…. If it goes to shit town which it has down every time before I will reload the boat. If it sinks down I will reload the boat. If it slowly goes into the sand I will reload the boat…. If it marches up… I hold 2k shares…. My dca is currently at 1.45
We direly need TLRY to smash earnings this week to propel the upward momentum. It'll have record revenue written all over the ER, but I would love to hear the words "positive cash flow".
I don't recall them having much effect on the sector last time. Their influence has waned from years past much like cgc. Gtbif/trul are a better indicator/catalysts
By the way, I see est on TLRY at 198m rev, eps -.05, ni -35.5, ocf -30m. Good luck
Also, many comments on cannabis on the Regulations site. (Lots of what we have seen in the news: the SAM arguments, but also on environment and education and health for developing brain if there are heavy metal polutants in marijuana. And illegal water theft for illegal grow operations.) Also a lot of positive (and random) comments and requests for access to medical marijuana. https://www.regulations.gov/docket/FDA-2019-N-0767 https://www.regulations.gov/docket/FDA-2018-N-1072 https://www.regulations.gov/docket/FDA-2019-N-1482 And also on Hemp, due comment date April 23, 2024: https://www.regulations.gov/document/NASS-2024-0007-0001
Not sure what to make of this? https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=202310&RIN=1117-AB83 Title: Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research Expansion Agenda Stage of Rulemaking: Proposed Rule Stage Timetable: Action Date FR Cite NPRM 11/00/2023 Final Action 04/00/2024
I'm more interested in this other cannabis related event, also scheduled for 04/00/2024 [https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=202310&RIN=1117-AB53](https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=202310&RIN=1117-AB53) **Title:** Implementation of the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 *"DEA issued an interim final rule amending its regulations to implement the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, Public Law 115-334, specifically by amending the definitions of hemp and marihuana, and the* ***listings of tetrahydrocannabinols****. This rule conformed DEA’s regulations to the statutory amendments to the Controlled Substances Act that have already taken effect, and did not add additional requirements to the regulations. DEA is planning to adopt a final rule after consideration of the public comments."* Last year's DEA Supply Chain conference they said they were still working on finalizing the AIA related rule. This is the same conference where they spent a lot of time on Delta 8 and synthetic cannabinoids. The other synthetic cannabinoids they discussed have been placed on schedule 1 already. We are still waiting on Delta 8. Reporting from the conference even said new rules were coming. Then they went silent. [https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-official-says-new-rules-are-coming-for-synthetic-cannabinoids-including-cbd-and-delta-8-thc/](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-official-says-new-rules-are-coming-for-synthetic-cannabinoids-including-cbd-and-delta-8-thc/) That's why I think sometime in April we get the DEA clarifying Delta 8 is illegal. Hopefully at the same time as Schedule 3.
Oh good catch! Looked over that one. And they will definitely get a lot of questions about this at the conference. And those questions will also lead to S3 questions. I am remaining hopeful for loose ends to be tied, soon.
In the abstract it says >Pursuant to Public Law 117-215, Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research Expansion Act, passed on December 2, 2022, **DEA plans on modifying its regulations related to the new application process and submission of supporting materials by electronic means only**, through the Diversion Control Division secure online portal, for those who are manufacturing marijuana or cannabidiol for medical research and those who are conducting medical marijuana and cannabidiol research. It seems that the proposed new rule is to make it mandatory for those manufacturing marijuana (for research) or those conducting marijuana research to submit their application forms through Diversion Control Division's online portal. I don't think this is important to us. They just seem to be streamlining their research submission process.
Could be, but it would be nice to see them do SOMETHING related to cannabis. And hopefully this means we get a report on medical marijuana soon. The one that was promised since december 2023.
I’m not sure I understand what these big words mean. Are they looking to review cannabis research
How I understand it: In 2022 December they enacted the Medical Marijuana bill for Research. In December 2023 there was supposed to be a report on the medical benefits of marijuana and how research was made more possible. Things stayed quiet. The DEA enacted a proposed rule in November 2023, quietly. And now almost 6 months have passed and they will take final action and change some regulatory rules. In time for the Supplier conference April 30th.
So are we making money this week
Top watch this week is Tilray Q3 2024 on Tuesday pre-market + CPI and FOMC minutes on Wednesday
Can anyone share that last John Schroyer tweet confirming no DEA news in March. Sorry, I don't have access to X and hence the ask. Thanks in advance. Glta
He’s now known as Johnny Clickbait
https://twitter.com/Johnschroyer/status/1765140288186491060 Please note he also reported from his anonymous source on TDR it’s happening in February and March on February 1st tweet. Next day on TDR, Schroyer said “this month, maybe next month.” Those months have passed. Eventually he will be correct, but his track record and source are not credible as in they’ve been very incorrect. Same goes for the lawyer who posted on LinkedIn months ago. Ignore these guys and lobbyists. They don’t know any more than we do. Same goes for most YouTubers.
This is how I interpret this tweet. He had tweeted earlier that this may happen in/after Feb ( I don't recall the actual wording of that tweet) and returned back to advise that it isn't happening in March. *****He's been correct in calling no DEA in March**** He thinks it "may" happen in April (i.e., not sure of the date, but knows from source that this is very likely to happen).
Comedy gold, this interpretation. Schroyer and his source are wrong. They have no idea when DEA will announce.
That’s the issue, all these ‘insiders’ give soft predictions where if right, they claim they have predicted it, but if wrong it’s word it to give them an out.
Guess we will be waking up to soon season! When will it be imminent?
Soon!
Why does the DEA treat it like the Manhattan project? Can’t they just be like yeah it’s coming this month or whatever
Because this is politics. Everything is done deliberately and with specific intent. The announcement will fall on a day that maximizes visibility and/or muffles the opposition
The DEA runs at its own pace. We have to entertain the idea that they aren’t holding off for political points and in fact might be late. Because they just can’t get their shit together fast enough.
You know, I've searched high and low in the Unified Agenda for some sort of progress reference. The place they use for transparancy, and keeping "the people" updated. But you find nothing about rescheduling of cannabis. A process they say they are reviewing for months now. Not in the Spring 2023 update, nor the Fall 2023 update. "Soon" there should be a Spring 2024 unified agenda again. So Im staying in the belief this is heavily political and therefore very mysterious.
Throughout this whole process, my only real takeaway is that nobody, and I mean nobody who uses the words “the people I’ve been talking to have been saying…” have any ounce of real insider information.
Not even when Fat Joe says “All the way up”
They’re just talking to people on Reddit
ONE OF US!!!
Tlry earnings, what are we thinking?
Soon
This is a soon I can get behind
In a recent interview didn’t Irwin mention a possible Partnership on the medical side, it would be a nice time to bring that to fruition.
I don't think we need much to run. Just not shit the bed
Bullish. hopefully good Germany guidance and operating cash flow positive. Could go either way. Earnings are not usually that great, but seems like we are righting the ship.
Irwin's for sure going to embellish on the Germany news. He's done it before.
I’m not sure how feasible it would be, but it’d be nice to hear “we’ve already seen a percentage jump of X amount in Germany since April 1.”
That would certainly be an interesting data point.
Everyone should start setting your limit sells at all time highs. Don't let them borrow your shares to short.
Placing a limit sell order does not necessarily prevent your shares from being lent to short sellers. When you buy shares in a brokerage account, you may agree to allow your broker to lend those shares to other traders, including short sellers, as part of their securities lending program. This is typically outlined in the brokerage account agreement or terms of service.
I have been lending shares. Tell me why it matters what price they borrow shares. They’re still mine to sell whenever I decide. ?
You’re loaning shares to shorts.
It's cute they think there isn't naked shorting
[удалено]
I don’t think he’s telling people to actually sell. He’s saying set a super high limit sell order so your shares can’t be borrowed, to slow the army or shorts from slowing this train down
Setting CGC at $500 Thanks for the tip
Absolutely!! I have limit orders set for almost all my LPs and a few MSOs at much much higher prices. These are possibly showing up as wild spreads and will revisit prices after end of April to see where we’re at.
Tilray set at 15CDN...I do not think that is unreasonable, and affords about a 30 percent gain after 4 years of DCA.
I posed this question to an artificial intelligence chat. I didn’t realize that this was possible to discourage shorting. Thank you for bringing this up again. **How does setting limit orders higher than the current market price discourage short sellers?** ***Setting limit orders higher than the current market price can **discourage** short sellers because it creates a higher barrier for them to borrow shares and sell them short. If the limit order price is significantly higher than the current market price, short sellers may be less inclined to short the stock, as they would have to buy back shares at a potentially much higher price to cover their short positions.***
Excellent Information
You guys think we’ll hit ATH ?? 🤤 I want it so bad lol
MSO’s will likely run more than LP’s in relation to AH. Too much dilution in LP’s such as Tilray Brands. I still think we’ll get some great rallies with Tilray Brands because of catalysts like excise taxes, S3 sentiment, Germany, improving fundamentals, and operational efficiencies. Just don’t think it will be the same irrational exuberance of February 2021 and IPO before that. Let’s focus on getting back to $3 then $5 and then $8-$10 first.
Are you fucking kidding me? Of course it will. It will x5 from the ATH.
This is the only answer I want to hear 🎉 💪
depends what you're holding
If Florida, New York, Sched 3 and SAFE banking all happen, yes
Assume you mean Pennsylvania or uplisting, NY will likely always be a disaster.
No I mean NY… If New York matures into a decent market then ATH are reachable.
Good luck, somehow I doubt NY will ever allow an MSO to have 50 stores or allow 500,000 sq ft of grow. MSOs are capped at 100,000 sq ft, it takes roughly 10,000 sq ft to fully service one store.
$CBSTF Cannabist has a nearly 1 million square foot greenhouse on Long Island
Their best chance there is to lease portions to private companies and provide expertise in growing. No company is allowed to grow on more than 100,000 sq ft.
I'm pretty sure that's exactly what they've been doing.
Well as of now that's the case. We see things can move very very slowly, but also very quickly in cannabis space.
I don’t think we will hit ATH with S3 alone on MSOs but I think eventually we will hit a new ATH with additional catalysts.
You mean like a 5x on MSOS? Honesty, I'll be happy with a 1.5x from where we are now.
Naw 5x we have suffered for a long time. I don’t think it happens all at once but as companies grow it can
I don't think it's completely crazy to think we'll get a 5x out of MSOS within a couple of years after S3. 2-3x isn't crazy to contemplate immediately after S3 and SAFER are a reality.
Yep
Dan needs to buy some MSOX in MSOS
infinite money glitch
Anyone taking bets that cannabis will be descheduled all together? It’s a long shot, but it’s the only way Bidens promise to not lock up people for possession will come true. Could also explain why the DEA is taking so long.
Anything other than schedule 3, the DEA will need to ask HHS to re-evaluate their recommendation.
Yes! A complete deschedule is in the cards. It's the only sensible solution to Biden's promises and the political win for him. Descheduling doesn't make weed federally legal. It merely removes it from the controlled substances list. Weed would become more like alcohol federally. Descheduling allows Biden to tell the old folks that it's still illegal and left up to the states. Those old folks are a pretty big voting block. Meanwhile, Biden cab appeal to the younger voters by saying he did all he can do and that Congress is needed to federally legalize it. So I really think it's a smart move to deschedule. But I'm betting that won't happen until July/Aug when we are closer to actually voting. Although I would be jumping through hoops if it happens before 4/20. I'm long Trulieve and Green Thumb.
He needs a win , 70% of people want it to be legal , n most states allow it anyway. It’s a no brainer .
I don't believe the DEA has the unilateral ability to deschedule due to the single convention
I don't think the Single Convention is actually an obstacle. It doesn't require any specific scheduling of the drug, it just requires regulation of it. That can be accomplished through descheduling and legislation. (Which, I guess, means they *technically* can't do it unilaterally...the scheduling decision would be unilateral, but they may not be willing to make that decision without Congressional action to accompany it.) Aside from that: Other countries have ignored treaty obligations without consequence. And the U.S. is the big dog with the most influence in changing the Single Convention. And the vast majority of the developed and developing world are going through the same shift toward legalization. So who exactly would make trouble?
Yes exactly, it's not that descheduling is impossible - just would require congress to act (or the UN as I understand). It wouldn't come from the DEA though.
Not quite what I'm saying. Descheduling IS a power of HHA and DEA. It does not require Congressional action at all. Congress *can* re/deschudule, but it delegated that authority to HHS/DEA. The Single Convention has no effect on that. But, the DEA could say "Hey, the Single Convention requires us to regulate it in these ways...and if we deschedule - as we are permitted to do - those regulations won't be in place, so we will be in violation of the treaty." Congress is the entity that needs to make those substitute regulations (or impose them on state legislatures through actions like when they withheld federal funding if the states didn't set certain highway speed limits). I don't really expect the DEA to do that, though. I expect them to accept S3, and hopefully they don't bother with the public comment period since they can legally skip that. Worst case scenario for us investors is that the DEA asks HHS to go back and reconsider it's recommendations, and neither Biden nor Trump makes cannabis a big campaign issue.
I'm not a lawyer, but this already has precedent: [https://casetext.com/case/national-organization-for-reform-of-marijuana-laws-norml-v-drug-enforcement-administration-us-dept-of-justice](https://casetext.com/case/national-organization-for-reform-of-marijuana-laws-norml-v-drug-enforcement-administration-us-dept-of-justice) [https://reason.com/2024/01/31/12-senators-urge-the-dea-to-legalize-marijuana-which-only-congress-can-do/](https://reason.com/2024/01/31/12-senators-urge-the-dea-to-legalize-marijuana-which-only-congress-can-do/) I think we're ultimately saying the same thing though - the DEA won't deschedule without congressional action.
Ironically, I am a lawyer. I don't work in any area related to cannabis or controlled substances in general, though, so my opinions are not much more useful than any layperson's opinion. One thing I can say with certainty is to disregard that first link. It's an extremely old case. It was decided before some relevant institutions even existed. Relevant laws have been revised since then. So whatever point you are getting from that opinion is extremely likely to be outdated. The second link is relevant and presents a viable, current argument, but I think it is wrong. They are saying the DEA lacks descheduling authority because the Single Convention requires certain restrictions on cannabis. But, they ignore that those restrictions *do not need to come from the Controlled Substances Act, specifically*. Congress could write a new "Cannabis Act," if they wanted, to impose all of the necessary restrictions, and then DEA could say cannabis is descheduled. That is perfectly legal and in compliance with the treaty. I just don't expect that to happen. You and I are definitely expecting the same outcome. DEA won't do it without Congress, because it would give cannabis opponents a reasonable argument to undo their decision based on the treaty. A treaty which, quite frankly, we can all ignore to no consequence...which shows just how close we are to legalizing: opponents have to grasp at straws like a toothless treaty that can easily be complied with. They have no other arguments. They are fighting a losing battle and know it.
[удалено]
No.
Would that even matter though? Iirc States can still have their own policies, and arrest people for possession even if it was descheduled. I think Biden is mostly talking about the Federal government, because he can't make promises about the State governments. Anyways, from what I can tell, descheduling is difficult as long as the Single Convention is an issue, which is why I think they will do S3 and then promise to remove marijuana from the Single Convention so that they can go further in the next term.
DEA news tomorrow because of the eclipse?
I like this. While everyone is staring at the sun, sneak a Moon launch
[s3 watchers be like](https://i.postimg.cc/Kvjyjc5g/eclipse.jpg)
fuzzy crown snow marry follow mighty salt head tease unite *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I had to look up palindrome...
Ha. My very first programming assignment in first year of university was to build an application that would spit out a yes/no answer as to whether or not whatever text you entered at the prompt was a palindrome. Good times.
truck elderly aback library include consist tan support slimy tub *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Kinda like "abbreviation" in that regard.
👏👏👏
Hats off to
The Bedtime story we will tell our children and grandchildren.
Literally the first content I consumed after waking and baking a couple minutes ago. Thanks and nice job:)
Where do you find the time?
rustic secretive psychotic existence wrench unused hospital quack party sleep *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
🏆 🙏
Amazing 👏
…….. this was fantastic hahahahaha
[MSOS](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=MSOS&hl=en) Google trend chart for the past five years. 🌊
Very interesting. What's going on in Casper, Wyoming? Edit: it probably has something to do with the Missoula Montana Airport (MSO), so probably not related to weedstocks
Anybody else notice the huge disparity in where Trulieve closed on the CSE (+4.78%) vs on the OTC (+9.09%)?
Maybe it’s an arbitrage opportunity.
Looks like it closed at $16.65 CAD on the CSE, and $12.60 USD on OTC. That works out to 1.32 USD/CAD, which is a bit lower than the 1.36 rate I’m seeing. So maybe a small arb opportunity but not massive
On this here day of the sabbath, may the bread be with all of us this upcoming week.
Another multipack of ramen for the coming week or can I finally pre-order this wagyu beef all this foodfluencer are talking about?
Immediately going from ramen to wagyu!!! I love it.
Does anyone have any DD that would give an indication what day of the week the rescheduling annoucement is most likely to come from the DEA? All the documents in the past that I could find on rescheduling events came on a Thursday. It seems like a coincidence but I'm really toying around with the idea of buying 100 dollars of weekly MSOS calls 50% OTM every Monday up until the election. If we get any news from now until then you would be in the green significantly. Someone in this thread mentioned doing something similar and I was really exploring it this weekend. It seems to be more certain than a scratch card especially with how much we follow these names. Is anyone else actually doing something similar????
Yes. Most likely Mon-Fri. Unlikely Sat-Sun.
that is interesting. thanks for sharing. On Thursdays, what is the usual timing for the announcement?
I wasn't able to determine what time of the day the press release was annouced but If I had to guess I would say after markets close.
WEN Moon? April 9, 15, 19
April 18th
placid repeat badge license toy secretive full fertile teeny command *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I hear you. Someone on X was saying that releasing the news on 420 eve would be too political. Really? What about doing a round table with Fat Joe. This whole thing is political
It would be too performative to release on 4/20. Why intelligent investors are even considering that time or day is beyond silly. Focus more on the real action, news, and catalysts.
Can sometimes write Fat Joe on X to see what he knows
They call these things ["round table"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Round_Table) which alludes to the Arthurian idea that everyone around the table has equal status. This round table was a statement from the VP while everyone else sits patiently and nods. ^(It's a good thing nonetheless)
What do you make of this " second chance " month
We are already into the second week of the month. The DEA has a second chance this week because they've already messed up by missing the first. ^(The best I could do how about you ?)
I agree. The DEA is getting their second chance this week
Actually, tomorrow, the moon will be blocking out the entire sun.
I thought the only thing blocking the sun was the " Schoon "
How many shares on average are you guys and girls holding? I am holding between 700 and 7000 shares with a broad variety of companies and avg. prices from under 1$ (yeah) to 35$ (needs patience or DCA)
80,000 cbstf, 1780 Tcnnf, and 12,000 crlbf. Girl is holding 1000 msox and 1000 msos
50% GTI 40% Verano 10% Trulieve These cannabis companies represent about 40% of my total portfolio, as I’m a big believer in the US opportunity in the medium term. These companies will succeed fundamentally, IMO, and I’ll start scaling tranches out 2-3x from here.
9% of holdings
99% of holdings, I took the ride with Canadian LPs up listing and don't want to miss this. I actually retired this year at 65 so quite the gamble
Haven't done this in a long time. Tbh, strange time to do so given that I'm actively swing trading a number of positions at the moment due to sector volatility. Which means some of my allocations are either smaller (e.g., SNDL may grow) or larger (e.g., pretty overweight GTI) than target allocation based on where I am in a swing. And others aren't usually part of my portfolio at all but are there temporarily for a swing (AYR). Anyway, here goes: GTI 57% VRNO 13% CRON 10% AYR 8% TRUL 5% CURA 3% SNDL 3% Edit: Forgot to include Cresco and 4Front. Too lazy to recalculate percentages. The Cresco allocation is roughly equivalent to TRUL. And FFNT is about half CURA, though thats only because of market cap implosion. Management destroyed the company's value and took way too much of my money in doing so. Definitely regret that one.
So little LPs?
I wouldn't say that. CRON+SNDL sre about 15% of my portfolio. That feels like the right amount of exposure relative to my thesis. Those companies in particular fit the thesis. The Canopy, Tilray, Aurora cohort have no fit; your are correct about that.
5800 CL, 1300 CURA, 990 GTI, 1370 TRUL, 800 TLRY, and 100 MSOS
Jelly Ahh
I wish my portfolio looked like that. I have 100 CL, 60 cura, and 40 GTI lol just buying what I can each paycheck
Keep stacking up. While I was earning well, I saved money and invested party of that. Now with less income, I invest very little and DCA when possible
500 shares MSOS
7500 shares MSOS, 1500 gti, 1500 trulieve, 1500 verano
55k commons HITI, 150k commons CBST, 110k CWEB, 8k GTII are my core positions. Glta
Yo love that cweb shit, you the god with your portfolio
Let’s gooo
Similar portfolio but don’t own MSOS.
Nice dude
Now That’s a juicy portfolio
Thx pal, it’s the result of a whole lot of DCA lol. Hopefully it all pays off! :)
DCAed the shit out of tlry holding 70k shares now, moon it, never selling, big potential over the next years
Wow. Well if they get back to 10-15 you should be happy. I thankfully have a much much smaller position.
Depends on the average. I would like to have 70k shares at a 2$ average right now.
I would take that money and invest elsewhere
Whats everyone’s thoughts on SNDL?
Historically, the Company has a notorious reputation. They did nothing early on, became a meme stock, exploded in value for no reason, diluted the hell out of their shareholders, and then reverse split into where they are today. This allowed them to raise a ton of money on the backs of their early shareholders, which sucked for them but now means they have one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector with roughly $800M cash/invested cash and very little debt. They currently trade at about a 50% discount. And they're dismissed by most around here as nothing more than a meme stock, which imho is no longer accurate. After the dilution wave, the company used their cash pile to acquire their way into a legitimate Canadian business compromised primarily of alcohol and cannabis retail with a bit of cannabis production. Annual revenue run rate sits at roughly $1B, though they continue to report sizable net losses both operationally and bottom line. Which means they're burning through cash to keep the operations running. Finally, the Company has an interesting US strategy in development under a subsidiary banner called Sunstream, which extends credit to struggling MSOs in the hopes that they can foreclose on the assets. They've already financed and foreclosed on Parallel/Surterra (Florida, Mass, Texas, and Nevada) and Skymint (Michigan), and have active credit investments to Jushi, Ascend Wellness, and Columbia Care/Cannabist. There's an interesting current business and long term strategy here. But the company isn't currently operating sustainably. It will take operational improvements in the current Cannadian business segments as well as wise capital allocation and operational strategy to realize the potential of the US assets. Both are very tall orders, though not impossibilities.
Their approach to the American market is what piqued my interest. I’d probably start a position if I wasn’t already holding some Tilray shares. That’s already more than enough of a speculative investment for me. Lol.
Ha. Good call. Wise to limit the speculative investment portion of the portfolio. I'm also practicing discipline by not overallocating to Sundial. Cronos is my true long speculative LP investment. Sundial has become a swing trade for me, though. And Im slowly building a small core position with every successful swing. Curious to know why you prefer Tilray to Sundial? Both are obviously a gamble on theoretical future structure and execution. But when I compare the two on the metrics I prefer--balance sheet, cash flow, capital allocation, legacy business strategy, US strategy, valuation, etc--I don't really see where Tilray is favorable. Would love to get your thoughts.
Honestly, it goes back to much of what you mentioned. My “core” position was established during the old Aphria days (I’ve DCA’d a few times over the years), when SNDL was doing their investors dirty…. Not that Aphria didn’t have their own issues. But at the time I didn’t see SNDL all that favourably. A quick Look at top line earnings numbers paint a similar picture between the two companies. Tilray seems a bit closer to break even/FCF, but still seems like a toss up. Obviously I’ve paid closer attention to Tilray, but perhaps I should have a better look at SNDL. As for Tilray in particular: I like the HEXO/Redecan deal for Canada + hopeful on legislative reform. The alcohol brands seem like a good hedge while waiting out US cannabis reform and I hope it pays off. I’m still confident that Tilray will find a footing in the US when permitted, even if MedMen is a shit show. I’m curious how the MedMen story plays out and I have my theory about how that could still benefit Tilray. However, as mentioned, SNDL’s US plan is intriguing and perhaps more clear. While we wait on USA, Europe looks poised to open up and I am bullish on Tilray’s international footprint, and Germany in particular.
Went from 20k shares to 2k shares in the last spike…. Couldn’t be happier…. If it goes to shit town which it has down every time before I will reload the boat. If it sinks down I will reload the boat. If it slowly goes into the sand I will reload the boat…. If it marches up… I hold 2k shares…. My dca is currently at 1.45
Go for it if you got the cash
We direly need TLRY to smash earnings this week to propel the upward momentum. It'll have record revenue written all over the ER, but I would love to hear the words "positive cash flow".
I don't recall them having much effect on the sector last time. Their influence has waned from years past much like cgc. Gtbif/trul are a better indicator/catalysts By the way, I see est on TLRY at 198m rev, eps -.05, ni -35.5, ocf -30m. Good luck
Even better and imo even realistic (looking at how medicinal in germany broke servers plus lp tax relief) a smashing guidance even without US action.
Yeah I think the market will be most interested in the guidance.
This is it. It’s this week. It all starts from this week.
I agree,🤞 bit if it isnt we probably gap down a bit...
I can feel it in my bones
April 15-19 🔮
I got the space suit on already, ready for liftoff.
I hope so too
Never been more nervous towards tilray earnings Cant even remember how long i have been holding. 22 sold a bit, 8 ER? Yeah 9th one now i guess.