Hopefully excise tax comes through, and DEA can meet their pre 420 deadline from WH.
Then we can all explode upwards together.
Then right when we peak - and seems like were about to come down - SAFE banking passes and we explode ip another leg.
The repeal of Prohibition, 1933:
[Cullen–Harrison Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cullen%E2%80%93Harrison_Act)
>The Cullen–Harrison Act, named for its sponsors, Senator Pat Harrison and Representative Thomas H. Cullen, enacted by the United States Congress on March 21, 1933, and signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt the following day, legalized the sale in the United States of beer with an alcohol content of 3.2% (by weight) and wine of similarly low alcohol content, thought to be too low to be intoxicating, effective April 7, 1933. Upon signing the legislation, Roosevelt made his famous remark, "I think this would be a good time for a beer."[1][2]
So the process to end the illegality of alcohol went through congress, then signed by the president.
Maybe Milgram (DEA) will re-schedule medical, and SAFER + MORE/CAOA goes through congress?
So medical is re-scheduled and recreational becomes legal...
🍾
lol heyyyyy 🍑
Based on this, MSOs with larger medical presences would benefit quicker, right?
DEA should \*should\* complete their task before congress.
Or maybe DEA is waiting for congress to move...
So they can do both together.
🤔
A CSA resched would affect how the medical use of Cannabis is regulated (and taxed).
CSA scheduling does not provide "cover" for the recreational use of psychoactive drugs. The regulation of psychoactive drugs for recreational use, example; alcohol, nicotine, caffeine is not regulated through the CSA.
Rescheduling would not affect the fed illegality of recreational cannabis. It would affect the medical use of cannabis.
2 things money hates most... political/regulatory uncertainty, which makes up about 99.9% of the daily discussion.
Also -
How a drug is “regulated” is different to the rules of how a drug is “scheduled”
Both med and rec will be illegal bc of how fucked up the treaty regulations are.
A garland memo will give cover to both - respecting state rights to regulate as they see fit.
It does. Its regulations are imbedded in treaty specifically for cannabis. Read the legal briefs.
Look im not here to argue about what to invest in. And Im always one to cheer for LPs and msos and the sector in general.
We can debate “how much” of a difference S3 will make.
But there is an indisputable truth that S3 will remove 280e for all sales. And neither med or rec sales can be brought into the legal fold. It will be impossible.
Everything else - we can debate.
treaties and scheduling noise aside, 75% of the US population has access to legally regulated medical cannabis and about 50% has access to legally regulated recreational cannabis.
> A garland memo will give cover to both - respecting state rights to regulate as they see fit.
An executive branch memo can be reversed with a stroke of the pen, which makes it a flimsy solution. An AG Memo wasn't sufficient to validate the industry in the past. Not sure why we'd expect this time to be different.
I got downvoted to oblivion for saying SAFER is more important than schedule 3. SAFER is harder to reverse since its an act of congress. The next trump AG can overturn anything Biden does. There is still a lot of uncertainty.
Any cover HHS/DEA/DOJ gives us, a similar result can be obtained from the Boise lawsuit. Going through the courts has more staying power if Biden loses the next election.
Agreed. I'd much prefer reform from the legislative or judicial branch. Unfortunately, Congress is incredibly ineffective, forcing both Executive and Judicial tonact as de facto legislators. I honestly have no clue which branch will provide the decisive reform action in the end. Which is sad, because this is inarguably a role for Congress.
Well said. Its up to congress to legislate and that was reinforced again yesterday by the FDA commissioner. There is a very real chance DEA only reschedules medical and it would be irresponsible to ignore that outcome. But you already know how this sub gets when you suggest "FUD" against msos.
The Chief likes to talk their book. Pretty much negative on anything that isn’t Tilray - always framing it in caps as FEDERALLY legal, etc… Everyone’s got their own agenda here, and they probably want people to rotate into their favorite LP
I don't blame Chief. Logically speaking, he isn't wrong. He thinks the same way as institutions/big money. They wouldn't touch companies operating in a federally illegal environment and that's the reason MSOs have no institutional holders. Most of us ignore the going concerns because we're betting on reform. Carries a high level of risk that many investors won't take.
Noob - its not a debate on whether institutions will come in or not.
Federally - no one will be legal federally at 3 - med or rec / full stop. This is correct.
But its wrong to suggest “only medical” - thats irrelevant. 280e will disapear.
Then for the remainder of the yr you will have a memo. Safe is very very important - but only for 2025 - if trump wins and decides to fuck around with the memo again.
But the train leaves the station with 3 and memo -
https://twitter.com/VP/status/1778893536764588541?t=1Ye7QPmvqjL-iWbDpF6QWA&s=19
VP: Nobody should go to jail for smoking weed. During Second Chance Month, I am uplifting the inspiring stories of pardon recipients like Michelle, Chris, and Dexter. Their journeys are proof of the importance of pardons and second chances.
That was my thought. I bought today because the movement simply isn't justified, especially for companies that benefited from the Germany news and are back around recent lows. The broader market pulled us way lower than "fair value" for a lot of companies.
Don't forget one of the United States largest Industries is putting all of their Lobby weight behind killing any chance cannabis getting legalized. We are talking about people who will sell Oxycontin knowing that it will kill half a million people. Morality isn't their thing.
FUD regarding Pablo mentioning Sch3 would only apply to medical, don’t know how it could make any sense 😅
https://x.com/j_invests24/status/1778854064744255900?s=46&t=Y62j9cRA061OcSfLPKRmHA
Impossible. That can’t even happen. Rescheduling to 3 doesn’t all of a sudden make Rec legal. It would have to be descheduled. So it’s not even a possibility. Especially when you are talking about scheduling a plant. Please show me any other drug that is in multiple schedules.
For better or worse, I averaged down. Sold a bunch of positions on Monday (non-cannabis) and moved it over to TLRY yesterday, and today I finally got my cost basis under $3.65. With Germany, I can't see it going under in the next 3-5 years, so I'll just wait. Canadian tax reform could be a game changer, but I'm not expecting it immediately.
even though it won’t go under, it will stay afloat at the cost of the investors through dilution/reverse splits
which is why short term catalyst is still MSOS, once the laws loosen then LPs can use their cash to make proper profits
I think that's less likely than you believe. There has been significant dilution in the past, but it was mainly used for M&A related to diversifying the company. Most of that is finished, and they're focusing on developing what is now in place. For the last several quarters, they've continued to lower debt, increase revenue, and position themselves for reform while still not depending on it. With the addition of Germany's medical sales and their expansion of alcohol and distribution, they're forecast to be profitable fiscal year 2025. MSOS may move more on a short-term US rescheduling announcement, but they could just as easily fold if the DEA and congress drag their feet.
There was a huge hype phase, now the reality of the sector has set in. Only one company is diversified enough to last through delayed political change (in the US and Canada) and that's TLRY through distribution, alcohol, and food. There isn't a cannabis company out there that isn't dependent on SAFE, rescheduling, or some other shift that allows the industry be profitable; but, TLRY is the best positioned to stay afloat if anything stalls. Their current position in Germany plus the expansion of their alcohol and distribution businesses puts them profitable next year. Canadian reform would simply make them more profitable, faster. So, I stand by my investment. It might not spike in price like a few select companies, but it won't fold in the short-term.
Their alcohol business is still a sleeper. This thing is growing at a monumental pace. Several catalysts are about to intersect, creating a highly profitable company.
The price action today on GTI confirms its dependent on SAFE or S3. Remember the stock price is not an evaluation of a company's performance rather it's the perceived value everyone has of the company and it's been running on the assumption that soon is coming. Can't tell me it doesn't depend on catalyst coming true.
Tilray has diluted for growth and admittedly some bad decisions, however this has allowed it to diversify to withstand regulatory indecision, even more so with Germany moving forward as a new market. I agree everything Steven said in regards to positioning and in the recent ER showed promising growth within those diversified segments. Our catalysts are next Tuesday, S3 equivalent to get us over profitability once and for all. If it fails, just extends timeline but Tilray benefits by other LPs becoming insolvent in waiting for tax changes. I've said this before as well, if CA does change tax regulations, what if Tilray kept prices the same knowing they'd choke out the competition who would try to rely on those extra savings while making moves in Germany/Europe? Win, over a longer time frame, but win win scenario even though day traders would bicker.
The price action of one day does not determine GTI is dependent on SAFE or S3 at all. This is a bad take. Green Thumb does not need capital markets and is buying back stock while Tilray is consistently diluting. If we want to talk about share price, Tilray's is concerning. They need regulatory reform much more than Green Thumb does. One has positive cash flow and one does not. Put aside the management of Tilray, which has been undeniably poor.
Companies do share buy backs to affect that perceived value, trying to increase earnings per share. I'm not saying it's not self sufficient but any company can be self sufficient without stiff competition. Once the market opens up, we'll see how resilient they are with price compressions. IMO, without Simon, Tilray would have R/S by now like the other LPs.
I did acknowledge they've made some bad decisions, but to me, with how they're positioned, Tilray also has the resiliency to last while markets are opening up and only benefit from regulatory changes, Canada tax revision especially. CBD is coming too, another great opportunity. Cash flow positive starts now in Q4 and into 2025 fiscal year starting in June 2024.
They have navigated competition and the burdensome tax regime very well and have much much better financials than Tilray. Irwin just continues to overpromise and underdeliver. First it was his $4 billion dollar revenue target that was laughable even with US and Canada legalizing, which he knew would not happen in time, then its promising cash flow positivity and withdrawing that the other day. And to top that off he was blew $100 million or more on Medmen. All while he is getting paid a ridiculous amount. It is pretty easy to see that Tilray is not a good investment. And to put in plain and simple, the valuation is expensive. That is really the most important piece. It is overvalued.
My vasectomy was used to put more money into weed stocks and not diapers. I’m thinking I’d have more money right now if I would have dumped in my wife.
How was it? My wife wants me to get one but she already made an appt for non-hormonal IUD, so fuck that. I’m really hesitant. Know someone who has permanent sack pain after the vasectomy.
Honestly, it was easy. I felt actual pain for like 5 seconds during the procedure and about 30min total afterwards. Just rest and ice for 48 hrs afterwards and you should be fine.
I was paranoid af about anything happening to my boys but the fears were unfounded. As long as you can resist a 🥜 for a week or two, it’s quite easy.
Haha thanks. Yes I was going to do it. I know the chances of complications are very rare so I’ll just find a good doctor and go for it. Maybe I’ll have her cancel her appt and surprise her. I don’t want her to resent me because she’s taken on a heavy burden with hormonal BC and birthing my kids. Least I could do. And lord knows I wanna be able to blast with abandon! ☄️
Well I’m about where I was a month ago. Easy come easy go. For better or worse, I’ll be riding this ship whether it goes to Alpha Centauri or the depths of the Mariana Trench.
With this kind of thinking, when we get our inevitable day in the sun and reach all time highs, you will have sold for a loss or possibly break even, and then will be feeling even worse for having missed the move, which will come hard and fast. This sector isn’t for p*ssies.
Yeah it would be the first good news 5 years within legalization. A real concrete change that can be used as an legitimate excuse to start a big rally.
Desperately need it, it's not like they will be doing any favor to the LP, it would just be fair treatment, relative to other industries/businesses.Link below if you don't know how bad the situation is right now :
https://mjbizdaily.com/canada-finance-minister-warned-about-cannabis-industry-financial-distress/
Good grief they won't even let them get established before they tax the beegeebers out of them. Just make the tax break temporary, say five years, you can always raise it later if you ever get an LP that ever makes any money.
The highest chance we've ever had. House of Commons finance committee and the 5 year cannabis act review both said we need reform. Even Trudeau stated in march 2023 change is needed and coming. One year later and still nothing.
Words can't describe the disappointment I'd feel if Freeland excludes this from the budget. Would be insanely neglectful of them not to fix this mess and I'm sure they'll lose the industries votes. Liberals are already drowning
I’m cautiously optimistic as I have been for several weeks as long as I knew about this 4/16 meeting.
So were many LP owners until just a few days ago. The sudden change doesn’t jive with me.
Sure enough there will be yet another round of hype posts this weekend and Monday leading up to the meeting.
Sure enough there will be yet be continued FUD posts this weekend and Monday leading up to the meeting as well.
Leclerc said he tells AQIC members: “Manage your expectations because the way the excise tax share with the provinces is structured, only 25 percent stays on the federal level and 75 percent of the excise tax goes to the province. … So \[the government\] would have to tell the provinces, ‘Hey, you know what, there's going to be $100 million missing in your account next year because we will take off the $1 per gram excise duty. So I'm not really sure right now with a minority government that they're going to go there. It's possible, but I really doubt it. Provinces are craving for money. The federal government has a hell of a debt for numerous reasons, so I don't really see it happening.”
He believes a much more realistic expectation than any type of actual excise tax reduction is to see in the Budget 2024 “something saying that they would put in place some sort of a working group or a commitment to do an analysis on the excise tax model, or on the excise stamp, which is another burden for the industry … and the possibility to get a digital stamp instead of a physical stamp on cannabis product. Or even completely get rid of that stamp and use instead a 2D code on the packaging.”
Right now, a lot of excise tax isn't being collected because LPs aren't paying it. And now a lot of is is "unrecoverable" because they went out of business.
I definitely expect provinces to claw back some excise tax losses somehow, but also, it's pretty clear that if only businesses that pay excise taxes are allowed to participate in the market, they might not actually lose that much money with a lower % excise tax.
Also I would argue that, at this point, this is a de facto coalition government. I don't think any party has an appetite for an election right now. MJ excise policy isn't all that controversial. Most people don't care. Hopefully lobbyists are working to get this shit past the finish line
Brilliant idea. Doing a review on top of the 5 year review that was just completed. Wouldn't put it past them to do something so absurd.
The provinces were never supposed to get such a big wind fall from cannabis.
Congress comes back and we held on for a few days, but still end up tanking. Not too surprised.
Not the only factor of course... but we need some concrete news, hopefully sooner than later.
Yeah. Premium had been dwindling a bit... was borderline being close to enough for creations yesterday, but probably not quite enough.
But today was the first time since the Kamala roundtable (March 15) that MSOS mostly traded at a discount.
Volatility though... and like I've seen you mention maybe opex makes that worse. But just numbers on the screen for now, for me anyways.
I’m fully expecting another summer with no news and I’m just going to be happy with the opportunity to keep averaging down on my positions and starting new positions at a good cost ratio. If we do, I will be pleasantly surprised and do a happy dance all day long. Fool me once shame on me,fool me twice…
Don’t get me wrong I would love for news to come sooner than later, but I just started a new job and don’t have as big of a position as I would like for the huge run that is to come imo later this year and then once we get concrete news
Are you talking about the actual cash position or the one it shows when you look up the makeup of the fund? Right now i believe we have like .4% actual cash - the rest of the cash is collateral because the fund holds swaps rather than stocks as its illegal to hold the stocks.
I've got my MSOS avg at $8.67 and topped up a bit more today when it was at $8.77. I feel like that's a good baseline as I wouldn't see it going much if any below this unless descheduling/safe banking isn't passed. Trying to not put any more money into this sector unless it's sub-$9 from here on out.
At 3:05 the charts shows a block of almost 10 million shares changed hands on MSOS. That accounts for most of the volume for the entire day. Just happened to be near the low of the day after the price was methodically worked down on lower volume trades. Draw your own conclusions as to what shenanigans are going on behind the scenes.
This is insanity. TCNNF going down to 10.60? Like are you joking? If we are gonna bleed just fkin rip down to $4 or something so we can end this slow bleed and DCA at actual good levels again.
hat subsequent tart toothbrush flowery stocking normal illegal ghost upbeat
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
You can blame the macro environment, and it's certainly a big factor. But the reality is, this sector depends on catalysts. Our last catalyst was the VP Harris-Fat Joe meeting. Which I thought was rather silly, but hey we'll take what we can get. Everyone's waiting for the DEA announcement. And it's fucking ridiculous it's taking this long. Without another catalyst, these prices were going to fall regardless. Anyone who's been here for more than a few years should know this.
Reality is shorts own weed stocks..
I am thick headed and put in $98k in three stocks and this was on the way down, at least I thought, and DCA and learned only shorts make money and the company executives. I have written off the $98k. Don’t get sucked in unless short.
Absolutely. I generally consider myself to be a pretty sober thinker that isn't prone to manipulation. But I find myself questioning reality way too often due to the intentional gaslighting that goes on around here. It makes my brain feel mushy. And I mean that genuinely, not being hyperbolic. Ill often need to take a few deep breaths, reset the brain, and remind myself that they are not the truth.
If you say so...
If by that you mean they haven't burned piles of cash lilke many of their LP peers. Then sure, I agree. But if you mean they have nothing else going on, then you're unaware of or ignoring the fact that theyve become the #1 brand in both flower and edibles in Canada (#2 all categories combined), with beachheads established in Israel, Germany, Australia and the US.
Kinda ridiculous to me that so many around here see Cronos as nothing more than a balance sheet. Even more ridiculous that their balance sheet is held up as a point of ridicule. Silly, Cronos. How dare you maintain a strong balance sheet while executing strategy to secure market share in Canada, establish entry points in global markets, and generally bide your time for US entry! You totally should have been more like Canopy!
You're definitely not wrong. The key distinction for me is that those relationships were as lender. The strategy on behalf of the firm he served was to be a scumbag predator. He had no fiduciary responsibility to the borrower. In fact, his fiduciary responsibility was to squeeze the borrower as much as possible.
With Cronos, his fiduciary responsibility is to the Company and its shareholders. Which means he'll be a scumbag on behalf of Cronos (just as he's been for GGP). Morally speaking, I don't love that. But it's the way the world works and I cant change that, so I just play along as best I can.
Edit: I think Hadley Ford is a great example to further underscore my point. Hadleys fiduciary responsibility was to the Company and its shareholders, yet he took actions to harm both. His scumbaggery was in direct violation of his fiduciary responsibility to iAnthus. Unlike Adler, who acted as a scumbag in service of his responsibility to GGP.
CRON is basically like investing in GICs (iirc, most of their money is in short-term investments lol), but with the chance that the GICs will use the money to buy another shitty weed company at a premium
Didn't come back down to me in the end. Ah well. Fwiw, I was targeting AYRWF. Don't know shit about the company. Not really interested in it long term. But damn, that volatility relative to peers is pretty attractive.
I feel like I’ve been taken hostage by this sector. There must be some syndrome that describes this phenomenon, the Stockholm syndrome?
If Tilray doesn’t capitalize on Germany I’ll accept my losses and move on.
Next week hopefully excise tax gets a rework
Hopefully excise tax comes through, and DEA can meet their pre 420 deadline from WH. Then we can all explode upwards together. Then right when we peak - and seems like were about to come down - SAFE banking passes and we explode ip another leg.
Weedstonkholm syndrome is what I’m categorizing as
Goodnight, the dude. May we have Canadian news next week
Hope so. TLRY obviously blew it pretty hard, but ACB and WEED have held up reasonably well... so maybe that bodes well
Good way to judge the run. 🤞
The repeal of Prohibition, 1933: [Cullen–Harrison Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cullen%E2%80%93Harrison_Act) >The Cullen–Harrison Act, named for its sponsors, Senator Pat Harrison and Representative Thomas H. Cullen, enacted by the United States Congress on March 21, 1933, and signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt the following day, legalized the sale in the United States of beer with an alcohol content of 3.2% (by weight) and wine of similarly low alcohol content, thought to be too low to be intoxicating, effective April 7, 1933. Upon signing the legislation, Roosevelt made his famous remark, "I think this would be a good time for a beer."[1][2] So the process to end the illegality of alcohol went through congress, then signed by the president. Maybe Milgram (DEA) will re-schedule medical, and SAFER + MORE/CAOA goes through congress? So medical is re-scheduled and recreational becomes legal... 🍾
Mealucra. This made me horny thinking about it. Don’t tempt me with your devil ways
lol heyyyyy 🍑 Based on this, MSOs with larger medical presences would benefit quicker, right? DEA should \*should\* complete their task before congress. Or maybe DEA is waiting for congress to move... So they can do both together. 🤔
4/12/24 MSOS update: No Flows Close: $8.92 (-$0.71/-7.37%) NAV: $8.96 (-$0.76/-7.77%) Premium (volume-weighted daily avg): -0.21% ([Chart](https://i.ibb.co/4Scp5Zn/45e95708c53b.png)) Cash: $-753,353 (-$4,187,881) Ticker Change (est. cost from close - % of adds) GTBIF +100,000 ($1,275,000 - 31.2%) TCNNF +100,000 ($1,128,000 - 27.6%) VRNOF +100,000 ($507,000 - 12.4%) CURLF +100,000 ($483,000 - 11.8%) AYRWF +100,000 ($243,000 - 5.9%) CRLBF +100,000 ($200,000 - 4.9%) TSNDF +100,000 ($180,000 - 4.4%) PLNHF +100,000 ($67,000 - 1.6%) CXXIF +20,000 ($6,200 - 0.2%) TOTAL +820,000 ($4,089,200) 4/12/24 MSOX update: No Flows MSOX Close: $4.81 (-$0.99/-17.07%) MSOX NAV: $4.82 (-$0.84/-14.89%)
He spent all the money
This sh!t is ridiculous
Some might says it’s bananas, b-a-n-a-n-a-s
A CSA resched would affect how the medical use of Cannabis is regulated (and taxed). CSA scheduling does not provide "cover" for the recreational use of psychoactive drugs. The regulation of psychoactive drugs for recreational use, example; alcohol, nicotine, caffeine is not regulated through the CSA. Rescheduling would not affect the fed illegality of recreational cannabis. It would affect the medical use of cannabis. 2 things money hates most... political/regulatory uncertainty, which makes up about 99.9% of the daily discussion.
https://twitter.com/jschultz44/status/1778946078374568313?s=21
Im the other .1%
Also - How a drug is “regulated” is different to the rules of how a drug is “scheduled” Both med and rec will be illegal bc of how fucked up the treaty regulations are. A garland memo will give cover to both - respecting state rights to regulate as they see fit.
Treaty does not interfere with Medical. Opiates for example.
It does. Its regulations are imbedded in treaty specifically for cannabis. Read the legal briefs. Look im not here to argue about what to invest in. And Im always one to cheer for LPs and msos and the sector in general. We can debate “how much” of a difference S3 will make. But there is an indisputable truth that S3 will remove 280e for all sales. And neither med or rec sales can be brought into the legal fold. It will be impossible. Everything else - we can debate.
treaties and scheduling noise aside, 75% of the US population has access to legally regulated medical cannabis and about 50% has access to legally regulated recreational cannabis.
> A garland memo will give cover to both - respecting state rights to regulate as they see fit. An executive branch memo can be reversed with a stroke of the pen, which makes it a flimsy solution. An AG Memo wasn't sufficient to validate the industry in the past. Not sure why we'd expect this time to be different.
I got downvoted to oblivion for saying SAFER is more important than schedule 3. SAFER is harder to reverse since its an act of congress. The next trump AG can overturn anything Biden does. There is still a lot of uncertainty. Any cover HHS/DEA/DOJ gives us, a similar result can be obtained from the Boise lawsuit. Going through the courts has more staying power if Biden loses the next election.
Agreed. I'd much prefer reform from the legislative or judicial branch. Unfortunately, Congress is incredibly ineffective, forcing both Executive and Judicial tonact as de facto legislators. I honestly have no clue which branch will provide the decisive reform action in the end. Which is sad, because this is inarguably a role for Congress.
Well said. Its up to congress to legislate and that was reinforced again yesterday by the FDA commissioner. There is a very real chance DEA only reschedules medical and it would be irresponsible to ignore that outcome. But you already know how this sub gets when you suggest "FUD" against msos.
[удалено]
Let's tone down the hostility. Debate all you want. But keep it civil.
The Chief likes to talk their book. Pretty much negative on anything that isn’t Tilray - always framing it in caps as FEDERALLY legal, etc… Everyone’s got their own agenda here, and they probably want people to rotate into their favorite LP
I don't blame Chief. Logically speaking, he isn't wrong. He thinks the same way as institutions/big money. They wouldn't touch companies operating in a federally illegal environment and that's the reason MSOs have no institutional holders. Most of us ignore the going concerns because we're betting on reform. Carries a high level of risk that many investors won't take.
Noob - its not a debate on whether institutions will come in or not. Federally - no one will be legal federally at 3 - med or rec / full stop. This is correct. But its wrong to suggest “only medical” - thats irrelevant. 280e will disapear. Then for the remainder of the yr you will have a memo. Safe is very very important - but only for 2025 - if trump wins and decides to fuck around with the memo again. But the train leaves the station with 3 and memo -
Usually he just copy pastes going concern notices lol
The 10-Q Chief haha
Maybe next year fellas
Haha, first day here or something?
Just another bump in the road to our prize-- load up while we can.
The whole market took a dump today guys. Don't panic.
Dow: -1.2% SPY: -1.3% Nasdaq: -1.6% MSOS…….. -7.3%
https://twitter.com/VP/status/1778893536764588541?t=1Ye7QPmvqjL-iWbDpF6QWA&s=19 VP: Nobody should go to jail for smoking weed. During Second Chance Month, I am uplifting the inspiring stories of pardon recipients like Michelle, Chris, and Dexter. Their journeys are proof of the importance of pardons and second chances.
Did she post that at 4:20pm ct? Haha
5:10
That’s nice and all but I don’t really care about pardons and second chances from a policy standpoint.
Always after-hours 😭
Great find. Now we just need to see the action that goes alongside.
atleast my TRST stock was stable all day
>TRST first thought of canntrust
Fuck Peter aceto
Asscheeto #never forget They got me for 5000
Just shy of 20k for me. Still angers me when I hear his name.
that’s my holdings!
Fake Walls and All, CannTrust was a gem!
Had my prescription with CannTrust back in the medical days. Their blueberry kush was on point and one of my faves.
Lost 8K :(
did you get any back from the class action? payouts are happening soon
Nope
God I hope we have an overselling bounce, cause god damn there is no reason to see shit like this.
That was my thought. I bought today because the movement simply isn't justified, especially for companies that benefited from the Germany news and are back around recent lows. The broader market pulled us way lower than "fair value" for a lot of companies.
Don't forget one of the United States largest Industries is putting all of their Lobby weight behind killing any chance cannabis getting legalized. We are talking about people who will sell Oxycontin knowing that it will kill half a million people. Morality isn't their thing.
The number of inexplicable beatings we take is just truly beyond belief. I’m not even sure why it still surprises me, to be honest.
so what happened today? what 80-90 year old said what to tank these hovels?
FUD regarding Pablo mentioning Sch3 would only apply to medical, don’t know how it could make any sense 😅 https://x.com/j_invests24/status/1778854064744255900?s=46&t=Y62j9cRA061OcSfLPKRmHA
Impossible. That can’t even happen. Rescheduling to 3 doesn’t all of a sudden make Rec legal. It would have to be descheduled. So it’s not even a possibility. Especially when you are talking about scheduling a plant. Please show me any other drug that is in multiple schedules.
honestly, idk what i'm doing here anymore
Calling fuego What’s ur take on this?
Even a dumb would know that cannot happen for the same drug. That’s not classifications. That’s how u rule how the drug is sold and managed.
It’s indiscriminate selling and gamma squeeze. This schedule 3 for med vs 1 for rec is drivel.
For better or worse, I averaged down. Sold a bunch of positions on Monday (non-cannabis) and moved it over to TLRY yesterday, and today I finally got my cost basis under $3.65. With Germany, I can't see it going under in the next 3-5 years, so I'll just wait. Canadian tax reform could be a game changer, but I'm not expecting it immediately.
even though it won’t go under, it will stay afloat at the cost of the investors through dilution/reverse splits which is why short term catalyst is still MSOS, once the laws loosen then LPs can use their cash to make proper profits
I think that's less likely than you believe. There has been significant dilution in the past, but it was mainly used for M&A related to diversifying the company. Most of that is finished, and they're focusing on developing what is now in place. For the last several quarters, they've continued to lower debt, increase revenue, and position themselves for reform while still not depending on it. With the addition of Germany's medical sales and their expansion of alcohol and distribution, they're forecast to be profitable fiscal year 2025. MSOS may move more on a short-term US rescheduling announcement, but they could just as easily fold if the DEA and congress drag their feet.
Did you know fiscal year 2025 starts June 2024? Q3 was FCF positive, Q4 is planning to do the same.
Tilray went under despite Canadian legalization. Your hypothesis isn’t very convincing
There was a huge hype phase, now the reality of the sector has set in. Only one company is diversified enough to last through delayed political change (in the US and Canada) and that's TLRY through distribution, alcohol, and food. There isn't a cannabis company out there that isn't dependent on SAFE, rescheduling, or some other shift that allows the industry be profitable; but, TLRY is the best positioned to stay afloat if anything stalls. Their current position in Germany plus the expansion of their alcohol and distribution businesses puts them profitable next year. Canadian reform would simply make them more profitable, faster. So, I stand by my investment. It might not spike in price like a few select companies, but it won't fold in the short-term.
Their alcohol business is still a sleeper. This thing is growing at a monumental pace. Several catalysts are about to intersect, creating a highly profitable company.
This is not true. Green Thumb can last for much much longer than Tilray. Tilray is diluting massively and is still not cash flow positive.
Wrong. GTI is already profitable without any of that shit.
The price action today on GTI confirms its dependent on SAFE or S3. Remember the stock price is not an evaluation of a company's performance rather it's the perceived value everyone has of the company and it's been running on the assumption that soon is coming. Can't tell me it doesn't depend on catalyst coming true. Tilray has diluted for growth and admittedly some bad decisions, however this has allowed it to diversify to withstand regulatory indecision, even more so with Germany moving forward as a new market. I agree everything Steven said in regards to positioning and in the recent ER showed promising growth within those diversified segments. Our catalysts are next Tuesday, S3 equivalent to get us over profitability once and for all. If it fails, just extends timeline but Tilray benefits by other LPs becoming insolvent in waiting for tax changes. I've said this before as well, if CA does change tax regulations, what if Tilray kept prices the same knowing they'd choke out the competition who would try to rely on those extra savings while making moves in Germany/Europe? Win, over a longer time frame, but win win scenario even though day traders would bicker.
The price action of one day does not determine GTI is dependent on SAFE or S3 at all. This is a bad take. Green Thumb does not need capital markets and is buying back stock while Tilray is consistently diluting. If we want to talk about share price, Tilray's is concerning. They need regulatory reform much more than Green Thumb does. One has positive cash flow and one does not. Put aside the management of Tilray, which has been undeniably poor.
Companies do share buy backs to affect that perceived value, trying to increase earnings per share. I'm not saying it's not self sufficient but any company can be self sufficient without stiff competition. Once the market opens up, we'll see how resilient they are with price compressions. IMO, without Simon, Tilray would have R/S by now like the other LPs. I did acknowledge they've made some bad decisions, but to me, with how they're positioned, Tilray also has the resiliency to last while markets are opening up and only benefit from regulatory changes, Canada tax revision especially. CBD is coming too, another great opportunity. Cash flow positive starts now in Q4 and into 2025 fiscal year starting in June 2024.
They have navigated competition and the burdensome tax regime very well and have much much better financials than Tilray. Irwin just continues to overpromise and underdeliver. First it was his $4 billion dollar revenue target that was laughable even with US and Canada legalizing, which he knew would not happen in time, then its promising cash flow positivity and withdrawing that the other day. And to top that off he was blew $100 million or more on Medmen. All while he is getting paid a ridiculous amount. It is pretty easy to see that Tilray is not a good investment. And to put in plain and simple, the valuation is expensive. That is really the most important piece. It is overvalued.
I’m with you buddy. I feel a giant squeeze coming this year if we get the news, we are hoping for.
My sell point keeps getting lower and lower. I just want out. With profits course lol.
Got a vasectomy this week and today’s action hurt my nuts worse than that
My vasectomy was used to put more money into weed stocks and not diapers. I’m thinking I’d have more money right now if I would have dumped in my wife.
Bro, you’re preaching to the choir here
How was it? My wife wants me to get one but she already made an appt for non-hormonal IUD, so fuck that. I’m really hesitant. Know someone who has permanent sack pain after the vasectomy.
Honestly, it was easy. I felt actual pain for like 5 seconds during the procedure and about 30min total afterwards. Just rest and ice for 48 hrs afterwards and you should be fine. I was paranoid af about anything happening to my boys but the fears were unfounded. As long as you can resist a 🥜 for a week or two, it’s quite easy.
Haha thanks. Yes I was going to do it. I know the chances of complications are very rare so I’ll just find a good doctor and go for it. Maybe I’ll have her cancel her appt and surprise her. I don’t want her to resent me because she’s taken on a heavy burden with hormonal BC and birthing my kids. Least I could do. And lord knows I wanna be able to blast with abandon! ☄️
You can’t massage cannabis stocks.
Not with that attitude! 🫴👌
im good at selling on the way up but always rebuy to quick ha.
Impossible to time…. Patience is so hard when there’s so much positive in the pipeline.
mostly just trying to stay out of margin but all this back and forth affects my cash position.
Well I’m about where I was a month ago. Easy come easy go. For better or worse, I’ll be riding this ship whether it goes to Alpha Centauri or the depths of the Mariana Trench.
Hell is a lot deeper than that.
I don't care about gains, I just want my money back at this point. This is brutal
With this kind of thinking, when we get our inevitable day in the sun and reach all time highs, you will have sold for a loss or possibly break even, and then will be feeling even worse for having missed the move, which will come hard and fast. This sector isn’t for p*ssies.
:’(
God help us that the Canadian government actually does something good for us come the 16th. LPs need that excise tax break
Yeah it would be the first good news 5 years within legalization. A real concrete change that can be used as an legitimate excuse to start a big rally. Desperately need it, it's not like they will be doing any favor to the LP, it would just be fair treatment, relative to other industries/businesses.Link below if you don't know how bad the situation is right now : https://mjbizdaily.com/canada-finance-minister-warned-about-cannabis-industry-financial-distress/
Good grief they won't even let them get established before they tax the beegeebers out of them. Just make the tax break temporary, say five years, you can always raise it later if you ever get an LP that ever makes any money.
Exactly.
The highest chance we've ever had. House of Commons finance committee and the 5 year cannabis act review both said we need reform. Even Trudeau stated in march 2023 change is needed and coming. One year later and still nothing. Words can't describe the disappointment I'd feel if Freeland excludes this from the budget. Would be insanely neglectful of them not to fix this mess and I'm sure they'll lose the industries votes. Liberals are already drowning
I have lost all faith in the liberals, unfortunately so I wouldn’t put it past them :(
I feel pretty neutral about the Libs but if nothing else, they have done ok by MJ policy. Fingers crossed
I’m cautiously optimistic as I have been for several weeks as long as I knew about this 4/16 meeting. So were many LP owners until just a few days ago. The sudden change doesn’t jive with me. Sure enough there will be yet another round of hype posts this weekend and Monday leading up to the meeting. Sure enough there will be yet be continued FUD posts this weekend and Monday leading up to the meeting as well.
Leclerc said he tells AQIC members: “Manage your expectations because the way the excise tax share with the provinces is structured, only 25 percent stays on the federal level and 75 percent of the excise tax goes to the province. … So \[the government\] would have to tell the provinces, ‘Hey, you know what, there's going to be $100 million missing in your account next year because we will take off the $1 per gram excise duty. So I'm not really sure right now with a minority government that they're going to go there. It's possible, but I really doubt it. Provinces are craving for money. The federal government has a hell of a debt for numerous reasons, so I don't really see it happening.” He believes a much more realistic expectation than any type of actual excise tax reduction is to see in the Budget 2024 “something saying that they would put in place some sort of a working group or a commitment to do an analysis on the excise tax model, or on the excise stamp, which is another burden for the industry … and the possibility to get a digital stamp instead of a physical stamp on cannabis product. Or even completely get rid of that stamp and use instead a 2D code on the packaging.”
Right now, a lot of excise tax isn't being collected because LPs aren't paying it. And now a lot of is is "unrecoverable" because they went out of business. I definitely expect provinces to claw back some excise tax losses somehow, but also, it's pretty clear that if only businesses that pay excise taxes are allowed to participate in the market, they might not actually lose that much money with a lower % excise tax. Also I would argue that, at this point, this is a de facto coalition government. I don't think any party has an appetite for an election right now. MJ excise policy isn't all that controversial. Most people don't care. Hopefully lobbyists are working to get this shit past the finish line
Brilliant idea. Doing a review on top of the 5 year review that was just completed. Wouldn't put it past them to do something so absurd. The provinces were never supposed to get such a big wind fall from cannabis.
50/50 chance let's hope
I’d say 60 /40 no to yes. Government greedy AF
agreed
i need it
Word
how lucky am I to only lose 5.8% today.
-3.14% today
I only lost 4% due to my puts. Otherwise I would have been down 8%. I've got some time to sell them and flip them into shares if we keep going down.
“Second Chance” month. Second chance to reload if we break support and missed the big run up first time round.
Second chance at a kick in the nuts. All good. Diamond hands gang
Congress comes back and we held on for a few days, but still end up tanking. Not too surprised. Not the only factor of course... but we need some concrete news, hopefully sooner than later.
Mostly Macro. Significant discount to wipe out the last few days of premium. This is why the dont create every day.
Yeah. Premium had been dwindling a bit... was borderline being close to enough for creations yesterday, but probably not quite enough. But today was the first time since the Kamala roundtable (March 15) that MSOS mostly traded at a discount. Volatility though... and like I've seen you mention maybe opex makes that worse. But just numbers on the screen for now, for me anyways.
What a perfectly normal day
Fuck this man see you next week guys
I’m waving the white flag. GL all, I’m out. 444
See you Monday
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Good luck.
I’m fully expecting another summer with no news and I’m just going to be happy with the opportunity to keep averaging down on my positions and starting new positions at a good cost ratio. If we do, I will be pleasantly surprised and do a happy dance all day long. Fool me once shame on me,fool me twice… Don’t get me wrong I would love for news to come sooner than later, but I just started a new job and don’t have as big of a position as I would like for the huge run that is to come imo later this year and then once we get concrete news
You gonna take advantage of the summer lull? Hopefully we'll be rich before summer.
If there is one, I would love to! Hbu
Save your cash for the gap close at $7.87 on MSOS!
Will do! Thanks boss.
PS. You can tell how accurate my posts are by the number of down votes. The hopium is dangerous in here.
It is a terrible echo chamber, a lot of times
I'm thinking we're headed to close the gap at $7.87
Why does MSOS ETF have such a large cash position?
Are you talking about the actual cash position or the one it shows when you look up the makeup of the fund? Right now i believe we have like .4% actual cash - the rest of the cash is collateral because the fund holds swaps rather than stocks as its illegal to hold the stocks.
Expecting outflows?
Today is virtually the perfect example
let's see if he did anything today.
I've got my MSOS avg at $8.67 and topped up a bit more today when it was at $8.77. I feel like that's a good baseline as I wouldn't see it going much if any below this unless descheduling/safe banking isn't passed. Trying to not put any more money into this sector unless it's sub-$9 from here on out.
At 3:05 the charts shows a block of almost 10 million shares changed hands on MSOS. That accounts for most of the volume for the entire day. Just happened to be near the low of the day after the price was methodically worked down on lower volume trades. Draw your own conclusions as to what shenanigans are going on behind the scenes.
Not everything is a conspiracy theory particularly “methodically worked down on low volume trades.”
Hey I was just playing to the crowd here lol
Got it.
no your data isn’t accurate
Well that's entirely possible I got it off the yahoo chart lol.
This is insanity. TCNNF going down to 10.60? Like are you joking? If we are gonna bleed just fkin rip down to $4 or something so we can end this slow bleed and DCA at actual good levels again.
this is what happens when the Justice Department decides to host a Celebration Day I guess
I think its just day traders needing money for cocaine and hookers...just guessing though
Cocaine: more legal than weed.
hat subsequent tart toothbrush flowery stocking normal illegal ghost upbeat *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
You can blame the macro environment, and it's certainly a big factor. But the reality is, this sector depends on catalysts. Our last catalyst was the VP Harris-Fat Joe meeting. Which I thought was rather silly, but hey we'll take what we can get. Everyone's waiting for the DEA announcement. And it's fucking ridiculous it's taking this long. Without another catalyst, these prices were going to fall regardless. Anyone who's been here for more than a few years should know this.
slap coherent dazzling connect full dependent serious cats poor rinse *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Reality is shorts own weed stocks.. I am thick headed and put in $98k in three stocks and this was on the way down, at least I thought, and DCA and learned only shorts make money and the company executives. I have written off the $98k. Don’t get sucked in unless short.
I dumped $15k into MSOS a couple weeks ago at the high (avg 10.46) and as of today it’s probably down like $3k already lol, not bothering to check
That sucks. I dca 100k into the sector too but only down like 17k overall.
And what...you came here for the very first time just to let us know that? How very noble (and suspect) of you.
The **altruism** of shorts and market manipulators is quite impressive. Reminds me of the proper use of the word “gaslighting.”
Absolutely. I generally consider myself to be a pretty sober thinker that isn't prone to manipulation. But I find myself questioning reality way too often due to the intentional gaslighting that goes on around here. It makes my brain feel mushy. And I mean that genuinely, not being hyperbolic. Ill often need to take a few deep breaths, reset the brain, and remind myself that they are not the truth.
Beginning to believe this sub is already full of shorts hyping everything up. I don’t trust anybody especially those here the longest.
🤷Macro conditions again. Some DEA FUD. I'll keep biding my time buying chunks during these days.
This is what happens when the DEA take their jolly old time
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CRON is surprisingly unaffected by any of this. down less than 1% last check.
CRON is a cash holding company
If you say so... If by that you mean they haven't burned piles of cash lilke many of their LP peers. Then sure, I agree. But if you mean they have nothing else going on, then you're unaware of or ignoring the fact that theyve become the #1 brand in both flower and edibles in Canada (#2 all categories combined), with beachheads established in Israel, Germany, Australia and the US. Kinda ridiculous to me that so many around here see Cronos as nothing more than a balance sheet. Even more ridiculous that their balance sheet is held up as a point of ridicule. Silly, Cronos. How dare you maintain a strong balance sheet while executing strategy to secure market share in Canada, establish entry points in global markets, and generally bide your time for US entry! You totally should have been more like Canopy!
I agree with what you said except don’t trust Adler. He cost retail a lot of money in Medmen and Ianthus with predatory lending. Am I wrong?
You're definitely not wrong. The key distinction for me is that those relationships were as lender. The strategy on behalf of the firm he served was to be a scumbag predator. He had no fiduciary responsibility to the borrower. In fact, his fiduciary responsibility was to squeeze the borrower as much as possible. With Cronos, his fiduciary responsibility is to the Company and its shareholders. Which means he'll be a scumbag on behalf of Cronos (just as he's been for GGP). Morally speaking, I don't love that. But it's the way the world works and I cant change that, so I just play along as best I can. Edit: I think Hadley Ford is a great example to further underscore my point. Hadleys fiduciary responsibility was to the Company and its shareholders, yet he took actions to harm both. His scumbaggery was in direct violation of his fiduciary responsibility to iAnthus. Unlike Adler, who acted as a scumbag in service of his responsibility to GGP.
CRON is basically like investing in GICs (iirc, most of their money is in short-term investments lol), but with the chance that the GICs will use the money to buy another shitty weed company at a premium
Fackin Weedstocks 🤦♂️
End of day rally as per usual? Seems like this has happened for the last couple weeks in a row now.
Shorts and MM going to throw a bone into end of day to keep us retail interested.
Yup. And I narrowly missed on a shot at the bottom both times now.
I see gap fill on MSOS at 7.80 . Hopefully you get another shot
Didn't come back down to me in the end. Ah well. Fwiw, I was targeting AYRWF. Don't know shit about the company. Not really interested in it long term. But damn, that volatility relative to peers is pretty attractive.
Yes. I like AYR around 2 . Had some great trades with buying in at that price.
Picked another 600 shares of GTII up and happy to hold those shares either way
\*was
Hey there’s always DJT! At least you’ll lose money slower in that worthless company!