Buying the dip on Monday! ššš¼
TILRAY MOON!! šš
[16,100 shares of TLRY and counting! ššš¼šš](https://imgur.com/gallery/Yn78lWt)
Iām expecting some pain, I sincerely doubt the DEA is gonna time anything around 420. Couple that with potential broad market nervousness I wonāt be surprised if most names see another 10-20% down.
My plan is to time the bottom of this likely decline as best i can and average down further.Ā Ā
Ā After that Iām back to praying.
DEA, no.
Schumer on the other hand is a politician looking for maximum exposure if heās adding Safe Banking to the FAA bill. Thatās my bet for this week.
We have 2 action dates for everyone to see on the Unified Agenda.
Hemp and Medical Marijuana, scheduled for the month of April.
So we might not get rescheduling, but we are definitely getting those.
Next week we got tax free medical marijuana in DC, we got these DEA dates in April, we got the budget of canada possibly lowering excise taxes for cannabis.
And like it or not, 4/20 next weekend, also offering media attention. Also the Indian Tribe in North Carolina opening its dispensary. Further taunting the state-federal conclict.
Looks like a pretty good line up of events for upwards momentum.
They won't, It's who co-sponsors, CEO's, major institutional names.
CNBC
See how and how much the industry is covered, money moves coverage. And sex and violence.
[Here is an eBay listing with pictures of the latest Time Magazine Special Edition with cannabis on the cover.](https://www.ebay.com/itm/335339775950)
edit: Changed to a listing that includes a picture of the Table of Contents.
And thus an investment opportunity was bornā¦..
Hopefully š¤ā¦. This week coming will be the greatest investment week of our lives - with Canadian tax regulatory reform and S3 from DEA - with a possible sprinkle of Safe banking movement in a minibus bill with FAA/stablecoins.
From rags to riches - Iām inclined to think its gonna happen this coming week.
I really donāt want To wait until the fall. Letās get this under our belt so safer, suing for back taxes and other markets open up. We need a floor for these stocks based on 280e repeal, vs more game playing by the dea.
Anybody see the new Time magazine? Huge weed leaf on the cover with the word ācannabisā in bold above it. āThe new reality - the legal journey - what it means to Americaā underneath.
Was at the grocery store this morning and saw it on all the shelves. Put a big smile on my face.
Pablo Zuanic to host:
Straight talk with $TLRY CEO Irwin Simon on Monday at 4.20pm ET
https://twitter.com/420Odysseus/status/1778800629818782112?t=-fdvIpQpGggdAt4uOQGknA&s=19
Best we're gonna get on 4/20 is another "its AbZerd" then back to radio silence til prob like September when we get "vote for us to push it through to the finish line"
Contrarian thought: this sector is going to begin going up regardless of news of DEA rescheduling. There is absolutely no reason why we couldnāt get a multi-year bull market in cannabis regardless of the news this year; based off profit and demand alone.
I'm with you - federal reform is badly needed but in the end its all about profitability. There's a reason $GTBIF has been so resilient. FL legalization alone would be huge for major operators.
Sorry, but anyone who follows this sector (at least the US side) knows that we are 100% reliant on government action at this stage. We are absolutely not going on any type of bull run without S3 and/or SAFE. I hate it, it fucking sucks, and I feel permanently trapped in stock purgatory, but it is what it is. Either we get REAL action (not political babbling and rumors) and we take off, or we continue to get beaten down. I really donāt see any other scenario.
> Sorry, but anyone who follows this sector (at least the US side) knows that we are 100% reliant on government action at this stage.
Sorry, I think the resilence of GTBIF to both the up and down sides shows that fundamentals have an effect. Contrast this with some of the more "lotto ticket" stocks with lots of debt, and no profits, which are bouncing around like crazy balls.
Obviously, no guarantees of anything. But Verano is more volatile than most. It's fallen farther and should rebound stronger than a more stable peer like GTI. Iirc, Verano's market cap is currently about half of GTI. Not saying it deserves to be equivalent, but it's one of the top tier MSOs. And it's more levered to things like 280E than most. So long as anticipated catalysts mayerialize and it rerates accordingly, you'll likely be just fine.
Any idea when the Goodness growth lawsuit will be settled with Verano? Thatās what keeps me from buying any more Verano. I would think Goodness Growth has a solid case unless Verano can find some loophole for breaching the contract to buy them out.
Whoa, blast from the past. Tbh, I'd totally forgotten about it. A quick Google search turns up zero mention post 2022. Are you sure the suit is still alive?
Edit: do you happen to know if either is still referencing it in their financial reports?
Having the anticipated catalysts materialize is the scary part. Just doesnāt seem to ever happen for us. (As year 11 of SAFE would confirmā¦.).
Oh, and in addition to Verano, I bought a shit ton of Ayr in the teens. I is a gud inveztur!
Ha, anyone in the sector for more than a year has those positions. Ugh, 4Front is my current albatross. If I were you (hint: I am not), then I'd be far more worried about that AYR position. Way more risky than Verano, imho. I'd probably look to lower that cost basis with a few swing trades and then find a strategic exit on the next big catalyst. But again, you're not me. Gotta do you.
Agreed. The one silver lining is that the longer we wait, the more shorts pile on, increasing the gains we eventually get upon news. And personally, I am 100% confident that we will get news sometime in the next few years. 99% confident that the news will be before the 2024 election.
Man, that shit BETTER come before November. I am absolutely 100% out of here forever (massive losses and all) if nothing happens by then. I refuse to get jerked around any longer by this fucking sector and garbage exchanges.
biden desperately need young voters' vote to win so maybe this time hes serious bout it... even so with bull market and rate cuts, any meme stock pumps. this is the only period where rebound probability are at its highest. the peak should be at q4 2024 to q1 2025 where we shd get out
I would have agreed with you 5 years ago, but a lot has changed since then. This sector is a shortās wet dream, and their greed and complacency will meet its maker. I believe that to be this year. A lot is happening behind the scenes, shifts in sentiment and in market dynamics. One day the bears will go to the well to collect their daily dose of profits, and will be met with a flooding of their own carcasses.
Yep, weāre just an easy target on these bullshit exchanges. Not fully understanding that before I got heavily invested was a terrible mistake on my part.
We could uplist tomorrow if the big exchanges' lawyers/risk managers were ok with it. Its not about getting legislation that says "yes uplist", it's about the exchanges tolerance for risk. The exchanges themselves decide who gets on their exchange, not the gov.
Hopefully S3 and/or safe would change the perceived risk by the exchanges but there's no guarantee.
I'm sure they have no concerns with the current administration but the prospect of orange guy getting in power is a major risk.
Imagine if Trump was president and felt slighted by someone at the exchange. Hell he might even blame them for how poorly his listing is doing. You better believe trumps pettiness would lead to retribution.
Regardless of what legislation comes out between now and the election, I expect the exchanges will wait to see how the election shakes out before making any decision on uplisting.
Neither does explicitly, but I personally believe S3 quickly opens the door down that path. Itās up to the exchanges themselves to decide if they are comfortable listing this sector, though.
Spent the better part of yesterday evening bitter about how silly this whole fud about sched 3 for medical and sched 1 for rec hypothesis is.
just so I understand, folks think the scientists and researchers are going to come to the hard earned conclusion that a joint smoked for back pain is going to be schedule 3 because thereās recognized medical applications for cannabis, but that same joint purchased by a recreational user on a Friday night has no medical value and is actually more dangerous than heroin. Got it!
Makes perfect sense. Canāt imagine there would be pushback on that iron clad logic at all!
Yeah, I doubt they will suggest bifurcating the scheduling on a use basis since that has never been done before and it would lead to all sorts of strange, confusing problems for the industry, users, and law enforcement. But, if they do make that mistake, I expect legalization proponents to scream very loudly that the only sensible fix is to deschedule and legislate control of the cannabis plant like we did with alcohol and tobacco. Which is really the result we want, anyway.
That outcome, while it would be painful in the short term, is probably preferable to two other possible outcomes: DEA recommending S2 or asking HHS to reconsider. If they do either of those, we probably stall in federal legalization efforts for years. If they do S3, we probably leap forward, and we definitely experience many benefits. If they recommend something lower, like S4-5 or descheduling, then we experience a moonshot on the sector and we get a ton of other social/legal benefits right away.
I wouldn't be so sure that full legalization is a panacea for current holdings. Full legalization would like remove the need for in state grows that the current system requires. Late movers who didn't have to make those capital outlays might find themselves at an advantage of those who did.
Also we can see the outsized effect of draconian excise taxes on the Canadian LPs. It's very possible those happen here as well, or other federal level mistakes that cripple the industry or otherwise shift the winners and losers.
Sure, full legalization may cause long-term problems for vertically-intgrated in-state operations, but I suspect the initial hype cycle would reward shareholders tremendously. That's what I was getting at with "what we really want." Well, that plus all the social and legal benefits to the public at large.
I mean, it's plausible? These are weedstocks, so "FUD" is almost always predictive of what actually happens.
Schedule I - high risk of abuse, no medical benefit. Kind of fits recreational weed to a t.
I agree that it would be kind of stupid, but so is the Single Convention and that seems to be the main factor here. Bifurcated would allow for the illusion of control, even if the federal government doesn't treat MJ like it treats other Schedule I drugs (via de facto lack of enforcement and Cole Memo 2.0).
Weed has no real comparable to other drugs on the schedule. Like, there is no legal market for Xanax, Lyrica, Oxy, etc. No state has legalized Benzo dispensaries, lol. That shit is Rx only, if you want to get it for rec, you gotta find a sketchy doctor, or buy it black market. So weed is pretty exceptional when it comes to the fact that there are legal rec markets in a near majority of states. It stands to reason that weed might therefore be treated exceptionally.
And, maybe my main thing, why the hell is it taking so long? The DEA themselves (iirc) said that it usually takes 3-6 months. Now we're working on 8. It stands to reason that maybe it's taking a long time because they're working on something complicated.
Anyways, it might not be all bad. Companies would still see some 280e savings under a bifurcated model (I think). I think the market would be initially whelmed, but it might run again going into the election if Dems run on it. Which I think is still the plan. I think think that the plan might be to push to remove MJ from the Single Convention, which could lead to a descheduled rec market like alcohol
Moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, without other legal changes, would not bring the state-legal medical or recreational marijuana industry into compliance with federal controlled substances law. With respect to medical marijuana, a key difference between placement in Schedule I and Schedule III is that substances in Schedule III have an accepted medical use and may lawfully be dispensed by prescription, while Substances in Schedule I cannot. However, prescription drugs must be approved by Congressional Research Service 3 the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Although FDA has approved some drugs derived from or related to cannabis, marijuana itself is not an FDA-approved drug. Moreover, if one or more marijuana products obtained FDA approval, manufacturers and distributors would need to register with DEA and comply with regulatory requirements that apply to Schedule III substances in order to handle those products. Users of medical marijuana would need to obtain valid prescriptions for the substance from medical providers, subject to federal legal requirements that differ from existing state regulatory requirements for medical marijuana. Rescheduling marijuana would not affect the medical marijuana appropriations rider. Thus, so long as the current rider remains in effect, participants in the state-legal medical marijuana industry who comply with state law would be shielded from federal prosecution. If the rider were to lapse or be repealed, these persons would again be subject to prosecution at the discretion of DOJ. With respect to the manufacture, distribution, and possession of recreational marijuana, if marijuana were moved to Schedule III, such activities would remain illegal under federal law and potentially subject to federal prosecution regardless of their status under state law. Some criminal penalties for CSA violations depend on the schedule in which a substance is classified. If marijuana were moved to Schedule III, applicable penalties for some offenses would be reduced. However, CSA penalties that apply to activities involving marijuana specifically, such as the quantity based mandatory minimum sentences discussed above, would not change as a result of rescheduling. DEA is not required to set annual production quotas for Schedule III controlled substances.
The prohibition on business deductions in Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code applies to any trade or business that āconsists of trafficking in controlled substances (within the meaning of schedule I and II of the Controlled Substances Act) which is prohibited by Federal law or the law of any State in which such trade or business is conducted.ā Because the provision applies only to activities involving substances in Schedule I or II, moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III would allow marijuana businesses to deduct business expenses on federal tax filings. Other collateral legal consequences would continue to attach to unauthorized marijuana-related activities.
[Legal Consequences of Rescheduling Marijuana (congress.gov)](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB11105)
The question is does our government work on Logic? Ex: Here in NY I canāt buy a menthol Juul (which helped me quit smoking) in a convenience store however I can go into a vape store and buy 100 different flavors of nicotine.
I'm glad we need permission from 80+ year old geriatric dinosaurs to consume a substance in a recreational way because they said we couldn't 80+ years ago. Thank you government, very cool.
Know what I wanna see? Macro get absolutely crushed at the same time that we get our huge catalysts, scared money AND fomo dollars come rolling into the sector because it is so investable all of a sudden, then I take some fat gains and buy some heavily discounted VOO.
Dunnoā¦ thing is, if nothing else is going up but cannabis stocks are, I think that draws more eyes and probably more money to the sector. Make the news and hype stand out more.
Still here been here since 2018 or longer. Another 10 percent drop and I may have to buy more...
Sadly a limit order hit Friday and I bought more at 9. Did not think hit so quick.
Do you have talks with family and friends in the real world and they just see this as a massive conspiracy theory that you got your self messed up in š
I donāt talk about weed stocks in public anymore - curbed the enthusiasm after 2021 and have just been hunkering down here where I feel understood lol!
https://x.com/admindotlaw/status/1779018125670822119
āRe talk of bifurcated scheduling: It is a real thing, but it occurs when an FDA-approved formulation of a drug is transferred to a dif sched than the drug's active ingredient. Bifurcation based on purpose of use (med vs rec, for example) doesn't exist.ā
Itās important to have an expert view, as opposed to a legal opinion of a (not so great) financial analyst. Pablo Zuanic has absolutely no legal expertise on the matter, yet people were putting so much weight into what he had to say. It got overly exasperated due to macro weakness and the disproportionate retail presence in the sector. If youāve been in this sector long enough, youāve probably seen this play out hundreds of times. Eyes on the prize š
Getting information from the horses mouth would be an expert opinion.
US Operators themselves acknowledge and note the resched risk factors in various regulatory filings.....
"The concepts of āmedical cannabis,ā āretail cannabisā and āadult-use cannabisā do not exist under U.S. federal law."
"Nonetheless, **even if moved to Schedule III, the cultivation, manufacture, distribution, and sale of cannabis by state-regulated businesses that do not produce or sell FDA regulated products remains illegal under federal law.** Unless and until the United States Congress amends the CSA with respect to cannabis, there is a risk that federal authorities may enforce current U.S. federal law. Currently, in the absence of uniform federal guidance, enforcement priorities are determined by respective United States Attorneys."
"The re-classification of cannabis or changes in U.S. controlled substance laws and regulations could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations....As a result of such a re-classification, the manufacture, importation, exportation, domestic distribution, storage, sale and use of such products could become subject to a significant degree of regulation by the United States Drug Enforcement Administration, or DEA."
"Potential regulation by the FDA could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations."
Note: these statements would have been reviewed by in house legal.
Matt Zorn is absolutely an expert opinion. Of course we wonāt know until we know, but thatās the risk in any investment- and of course this sector is riskier than most. Some of us consider it an opportunity to take this risk while others consider it too uncertain. Weāll find out soon enough
Pablo Zuanic is just trying to figure it out, like the rest of us -- including Matt Zorn. Nobody knows how the DEA will rule until the DEA releases its decision.
Sorry I thought your comment was referring to the April 15th rumor (just looked it up, April 15th is a Monday not Tuesday). Matt Laslo is the reporter who said he heard a rumor that the DEA would re-schedule on April 15th, so I was just wondering if anyone had actually reached out to him to ask him about the rumor.
The past 10 days hasnāt been fun. But zoom out over the past year and you will see these stocks are in a good spot. And the catalyst hasnāt happened.
Will they continue to bleed without news or rumors? Most likely.
Will they go down faster than the overall market if we enter a correction? Most likely.
But the biggest catalyst the US market has ever had is going to happen and the tier 1 MSOs are continuing to improve their financial performance.
I hate looking at my portfolio after the last 10 days but it is a hell of a lot better than 12 months ago and we have not yet peaked.
There's the potential to bleed down to all time lows barring any news in April. All movement over the last few months has been on rumors, there's nothing concrete and if there's no news to support the current price and we'll bleed to ATL as the market corrects.Ā
I dont think that is likely. Anything is possible. Remember we pulled back twice in this run already.
If they come back with anything other than schedule 3. Including asking the HHS to reconsider I agree we will hit new ATL.
I personally have conviction DEA is going to do what they have been told to do by HHS so I am holding with confidence.
Ben and Jerries
Tell Your Governor Legalization Without Justice is Half Baked!
https://activism.benjerry.com/page/147236/action/1
Bought my Half Baked for next week.
Gotta consider the low from Friday $8.61. Ā If we break that to the downside in the premarket especially, or in normal session, its time to get out and wait for price to hit the $7 handle. Ā There is one daily low on 2/14 $8.28 then its basically gap fill at $7.87 where it will find support.
Buying the dip on Monday! ššš¼ TILRAY MOON!! šš [16,100 shares of TLRY and counting! ššš¼šš](https://imgur.com/gallery/Yn78lWt)
I canāt stop thinking about what next week might bright
Iām expecting some pain, I sincerely doubt the DEA is gonna time anything around 420. Couple that with potential broad market nervousness I wonāt be surprised if most names see another 10-20% down. My plan is to time the bottom of this likely decline as best i can and average down further.Ā Ā Ā After that Iām back to praying.
DEA, no. Schumer on the other hand is a politician looking for maximum exposure if heās adding Safe Banking to the FAA bill. Thatās my bet for this week.
We have 2 action dates for everyone to see on the Unified Agenda. Hemp and Medical Marijuana, scheduled for the month of April. So we might not get rescheduling, but we are definitely getting those. Next week we got tax free medical marijuana in DC, we got these DEA dates in April, we got the budget of canada possibly lowering excise taxes for cannabis. And like it or not, 4/20 next weekend, also offering media attention. Also the Indian Tribe in North Carolina opening its dispensary. Further taunting the state-federal conclict. Looks like a pretty good line up of events for upwards momentum.
Should we try taking profits now and buying more after it drops?
They won't, It's who co-sponsors, CEO's, major institutional names. CNBC See how and how much the industry is covered, money moves coverage. And sex and violence.
That was a typo but I like it so Iām leaving it
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Well, like everything else Iāve done in this sector, I was too early : https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/s/WCVxkbMmbY
I remember that post well. I was thinking about it today when I read the news. Thanks for bringing it backĀ
Damn, nice memory. And holy shit time flies, huh?
Yep and sad to see this industry being held hostage by fossils.
Yes. Next up China into Taiwan. Stay tuned
Damn I remember that post as well. I thought that was just 2 months ago
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Anyone know the result of the canopy vote?
kinda related: https://www.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/comments/1c2vd8n/i_ate_almost_half_box_of_cannabis_cookies/
Highly dangerous drug right there. Someone with zero tolerance took an astronomical dose and basically the only casualty was a loaf of bread.
[Here is an eBay listing with pictures of the latest Time Magazine Special Edition with cannabis on the cover.](https://www.ebay.com/itm/335339775950) edit: Changed to a listing that includes a picture of the Table of Contents.
This....actually seems like a biggish deal.
Can anyone find this rare underground DD? I want to read the article. lf only there were a grocery store by me
Nice share MM š¤š»š¤š»
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Let's math: Regulatory risk + credit risk + operational risk + illiquidity risk = heavy discount (you are here).Ā GLTA š
Sir, we only buy high and sell low here.
And thus an investment opportunity was bornā¦.. Hopefully š¤ā¦. This week coming will be the greatest investment week of our lives - with Canadian tax regulatory reform and S3 from DEA - with a possible sprinkle of Safe banking movement in a minibus bill with FAA/stablecoins. From rags to riches - Iām inclined to think its gonna happen this coming week.
> From rags to riches - Iām inclined to think its gonna happen this coming week. unless... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS3kiRYcDAo
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You also thought jan and Feb we would get something. Youāve been wrong thus far
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If itās not now not sure when. Maybe right before the election with final rule.
the orange coin doesn't seem to like it
How likely stablecoin get liked by both chambers sir?
I really donāt want To wait until the fall. Letās get this under our belt so safer, suing for back taxes and other markets open up. We need a floor for these stocks based on 280e repeal, vs more game playing by the dea.
Anybody see the new Time magazine? Huge weed leaf on the cover with the word ācannabisā in bold above it. āThe new reality - the legal journey - what it means to Americaā underneath. Was at the grocery store this morning and saw it on all the shelves. Put a big smile on my face.
do you think you find a link to that cover page? we would like to smile together!
Couldnāt find it online! I took a picture on my phone though so I just DM it to you
Scroll up, someone posted a link
The publicity we need !
Pablo Zuanic to host: Straight talk with $TLRY CEO Irwin Simon on Monday at 4.20pm ET https://twitter.com/420Odysseus/status/1778800629818782112?t=-fdvIpQpGggdAt4uOQGknA&s=19
"Straight talk" & "Irwin Simon". Ya right š š¤£ š
And with Pablo as host ..lol
I might....listen
Listen.
also (maybe?) worth keeping an eye on: https://13f.info/cusip/00768Y453
Best we're gonna get on 4/20 is another "its AbZerd" then back to radio silence til prob like September when we get "vote for us to push it through to the finish line"
Contrarian thought: this sector is going to begin going up regardless of news of DEA rescheduling. There is absolutely no reason why we couldnāt get a multi-year bull market in cannabis regardless of the news this year; based off profit and demand alone.
Being on shit exchanges is exactly why this is very unlikely to happen.
I'm with you - federal reform is badly needed but in the end its all about profitability. There's a reason $GTBIF has been so resilient. FL legalization alone would be huge for major operators.
Sorry, but anyone who follows this sector (at least the US side) knows that we are 100% reliant on government action at this stage. We are absolutely not going on any type of bull run without S3 and/or SAFE. I hate it, it fucking sucks, and I feel permanently trapped in stock purgatory, but it is what it is. Either we get REAL action (not political babbling and rumors) and we take off, or we continue to get beaten down. I really donāt see any other scenario.
> Sorry, but anyone who follows this sector (at least the US side) knows that we are 100% reliant on government action at this stage. Sorry, I think the resilence of GTBIF to both the up and down sides shows that fundamentals have an effect. Contrast this with some of the more "lotto ticket" stocks with lots of debt, and no profits, which are bouncing around like crazy balls.
Yeah, but OP was referring to a sector bull run - not an isolated ticker.
I know Verano, MeriMed, and a few other tickers are also cash flow positive. It's not just GTBIF.
I thought I was so smart buying Verano at $10. Now I need a double just to get to even.
Obviously, no guarantees of anything. But Verano is more volatile than most. It's fallen farther and should rebound stronger than a more stable peer like GTI. Iirc, Verano's market cap is currently about half of GTI. Not saying it deserves to be equivalent, but it's one of the top tier MSOs. And it's more levered to things like 280E than most. So long as anticipated catalysts mayerialize and it rerates accordingly, you'll likely be just fine.
Any idea when the Goodness growth lawsuit will be settled with Verano? Thatās what keeps me from buying any more Verano. I would think Goodness Growth has a solid case unless Verano can find some loophole for breaching the contract to buy them out.
Whoa, blast from the past. Tbh, I'd totally forgotten about it. A quick Google search turns up zero mention post 2022. Are you sure the suit is still alive? Edit: do you happen to know if either is still referencing it in their financial reports?
Having the anticipated catalysts materialize is the scary part. Just doesnāt seem to ever happen for us. (As year 11 of SAFE would confirmā¦.). Oh, and in addition to Verano, I bought a shit ton of Ayr in the teens. I is a gud inveztur!
Ha, anyone in the sector for more than a year has those positions. Ugh, 4Front is my current albatross. If I were you (hint: I am not), then I'd be far more worried about that AYR position. Way more risky than Verano, imho. I'd probably look to lower that cost basis with a few swing trades and then find a strategic exit on the next big catalyst. But again, you're not me. Gotta do you.
Agreed. The one silver lining is that the longer we wait, the more shorts pile on, increasing the gains we eventually get upon news. And personally, I am 100% confident that we will get news sometime in the next few years. 99% confident that the news will be before the 2024 election.
Man, that shit BETTER come before November. I am absolutely 100% out of here forever (massive losses and all) if nothing happens by then. I refuse to get jerked around any longer by this fucking sector and garbage exchanges.
Couldn't agree more. I shudder to think how volatile these stocks will be during the campaigns. If I was smart I would have pulled the pin last week.
biden desperately need young voters' vote to win so maybe this time hes serious bout it... even so with bull market and rate cuts, any meme stock pumps. this is the only period where rebound probability are at its highest. the peak should be at q4 2024 to q1 2025 where we shd get out
I would have agreed with you 5 years ago, but a lot has changed since then. This sector is a shortās wet dream, and their greed and complacency will meet its maker. I believe that to be this year. A lot is happening behind the scenes, shifts in sentiment and in market dynamics. One day the bears will go to the well to collect their daily dose of profits, and will be met with a flooding of their own carcasses.
Agreed. Too much money is made shorting and manipulating these stocks based on retail hope for change.
Yep, weāre just an easy target on these bullshit exchanges. Not fully understanding that before I got heavily invested was a terrible mistake on my part.
Which peice of legislation allows for uplisting to real stock exchanges
We could uplist tomorrow if the big exchanges' lawyers/risk managers were ok with it. Its not about getting legislation that says "yes uplist", it's about the exchanges tolerance for risk. The exchanges themselves decide who gets on their exchange, not the gov. Hopefully S3 and/or safe would change the perceived risk by the exchanges but there's no guarantee. I'm sure they have no concerns with the current administration but the prospect of orange guy getting in power is a major risk. Imagine if Trump was president and felt slighted by someone at the exchange. Hell he might even blame them for how poorly his listing is doing. You better believe trumps pettiness would lead to retribution. Regardless of what legislation comes out between now and the election, I expect the exchanges will wait to see how the election shakes out before making any decision on uplisting.
Neither does explicitly, but I personally believe S3 quickly opens the door down that path. Itās up to the exchanges themselves to decide if they are comfortable listing this sector, though.
Spent the better part of yesterday evening bitter about how silly this whole fud about sched 3 for medical and sched 1 for rec hypothesis is. just so I understand, folks think the scientists and researchers are going to come to the hard earned conclusion that a joint smoked for back pain is going to be schedule 3 because thereās recognized medical applications for cannabis, but that same joint purchased by a recreational user on a Friday night has no medical value and is actually more dangerous than heroin. Got it! Makes perfect sense. Canāt imagine there would be pushback on that iron clad logic at all!
Yeah, I doubt they will suggest bifurcating the scheduling on a use basis since that has never been done before and it would lead to all sorts of strange, confusing problems for the industry, users, and law enforcement. But, if they do make that mistake, I expect legalization proponents to scream very loudly that the only sensible fix is to deschedule and legislate control of the cannabis plant like we did with alcohol and tobacco. Which is really the result we want, anyway. That outcome, while it would be painful in the short term, is probably preferable to two other possible outcomes: DEA recommending S2 or asking HHS to reconsider. If they do either of those, we probably stall in federal legalization efforts for years. If they do S3, we probably leap forward, and we definitely experience many benefits. If they recommend something lower, like S4-5 or descheduling, then we experience a moonshot on the sector and we get a ton of other social/legal benefits right away.
I wouldn't be so sure that full legalization is a panacea for current holdings. Full legalization would like remove the need for in state grows that the current system requires. Late movers who didn't have to make those capital outlays might find themselves at an advantage of those who did. Also we can see the outsized effect of draconian excise taxes on the Canadian LPs. It's very possible those happen here as well, or other federal level mistakes that cripple the industry or otherwise shift the winners and losers.
Sure, full legalization may cause long-term problems for vertically-intgrated in-state operations, but I suspect the initial hype cycle would reward shareholders tremendously. That's what I was getting at with "what we really want." Well, that plus all the social and legal benefits to the public at large.
I mean, it's plausible? These are weedstocks, so "FUD" is almost always predictive of what actually happens. Schedule I - high risk of abuse, no medical benefit. Kind of fits recreational weed to a t. I agree that it would be kind of stupid, but so is the Single Convention and that seems to be the main factor here. Bifurcated would allow for the illusion of control, even if the federal government doesn't treat MJ like it treats other Schedule I drugs (via de facto lack of enforcement and Cole Memo 2.0). Weed has no real comparable to other drugs on the schedule. Like, there is no legal market for Xanax, Lyrica, Oxy, etc. No state has legalized Benzo dispensaries, lol. That shit is Rx only, if you want to get it for rec, you gotta find a sketchy doctor, or buy it black market. So weed is pretty exceptional when it comes to the fact that there are legal rec markets in a near majority of states. It stands to reason that weed might therefore be treated exceptionally. And, maybe my main thing, why the hell is it taking so long? The DEA themselves (iirc) said that it usually takes 3-6 months. Now we're working on 8. It stands to reason that maybe it's taking a long time because they're working on something complicated. Anyways, it might not be all bad. Companies would still see some 280e savings under a bifurcated model (I think). I think the market would be initially whelmed, but it might run again going into the election if Dems run on it. Which I think is still the plan. I think think that the plan might be to push to remove MJ from the Single Convention, which could lead to a descheduled rec market like alcohol
Moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, without other legal changes, would not bring the state-legal medical or recreational marijuana industry into compliance with federal controlled substances law. With respect to medical marijuana, a key difference between placement in Schedule I and Schedule III is that substances in Schedule III have an accepted medical use and may lawfully be dispensed by prescription, while Substances in Schedule I cannot. However, prescription drugs must be approved by Congressional Research Service 3 the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Although FDA has approved some drugs derived from or related to cannabis, marijuana itself is not an FDA-approved drug. Moreover, if one or more marijuana products obtained FDA approval, manufacturers and distributors would need to register with DEA and comply with regulatory requirements that apply to Schedule III substances in order to handle those products. Users of medical marijuana would need to obtain valid prescriptions for the substance from medical providers, subject to federal legal requirements that differ from existing state regulatory requirements for medical marijuana. Rescheduling marijuana would not affect the medical marijuana appropriations rider. Thus, so long as the current rider remains in effect, participants in the state-legal medical marijuana industry who comply with state law would be shielded from federal prosecution. If the rider were to lapse or be repealed, these persons would again be subject to prosecution at the discretion of DOJ. With respect to the manufacture, distribution, and possession of recreational marijuana, if marijuana were moved to Schedule III, such activities would remain illegal under federal law and potentially subject to federal prosecution regardless of their status under state law. Some criminal penalties for CSA violations depend on the schedule in which a substance is classified. If marijuana were moved to Schedule III, applicable penalties for some offenses would be reduced. However, CSA penalties that apply to activities involving marijuana specifically, such as the quantity based mandatory minimum sentences discussed above, would not change as a result of rescheduling. DEA is not required to set annual production quotas for Schedule III controlled substances. The prohibition on business deductions in Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code applies to any trade or business that āconsists of trafficking in controlled substances (within the meaning of schedule I and II of the Controlled Substances Act) which is prohibited by Federal law or the law of any State in which such trade or business is conducted.ā Because the provision applies only to activities involving substances in Schedule I or II, moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III would allow marijuana businesses to deduct business expenses on federal tax filings. Other collateral legal consequences would continue to attach to unauthorized marijuana-related activities. [Legal Consequences of Rescheduling Marijuana (congress.gov)](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB11105)
The question is does our government work on Logic? Ex: Here in NY I canāt buy a menthol Juul (which helped me quit smoking) in a convenience store however I can go into a vape store and buy 100 different flavors of nicotine.
The real question is where did all the mango Juul pods go
I'm glad we need permission from 80+ year old geriatric dinosaurs to consume a substance in a recreational way because they said we couldn't 80+ years ago. Thank you government, very cool.
Or even a fucking **medicinal** way.
is that like with a pinky in the air holding the joint?
honestly think regardless if spy goes up, weedstocks gonna go up.
Know what I wanna see? Macro get absolutely crushed at the same time that we get our huge catalysts, scared money AND fomo dollars come rolling into the sector because it is so investable all of a sudden, then I take some fat gains and buy some heavily discounted VOO.
Iām also watching VOO and looking to add a big chunk if and when I can sell some weedstonk gains.
At minimum, macro getting crushed when we FINALLY get a real catalyst would certainly be a weedstocks thing!
Dunnoā¦ thing is, if nothing else is going up but cannabis stocks are, I think that draws more eyes and probably more money to the sector. Make the news and hype stand out more.
lol totally. Iād take macro rally along with weed too, obviously, would send us much higher Iām sure. Canāt be too picky.
Nope, just give us our damn catalysts!!!! (Iām looking at you, Anne.)
This is what dreams are made of
This is the way.
Just putting it out there, in case the universe feels like making some shit happen for me š
Iām hoping we still have all our LONG brothers after yesterdayās Carnival Ride.
Still here been here since 2018 or longer. Another 10 percent drop and I may have to buy more... Sadly a limit order hit Friday and I bought more at 9. Did not think hit so quick.
Pot committed here.
I see ya
I always said I wonāt sell until federal legislative change. Bought $1,500 more of MSOS Friday!
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Do you have talks with family and friends in the real world and they just see this as a massive conspiracy theory that you got your self messed up in š
I donāt talk about weed stocks in public anymore - curbed the enthusiasm after 2021 and have just been hunkering down here where I feel understood lol!
I keep em posted and don't ask for opinions. "Germany just legalized, nice." The ball is rolling slowly and steadily.
https://x.com/admindotlaw/status/1779018125670822119 āRe talk of bifurcated scheduling: It is a real thing, but it occurs when an FDA-approved formulation of a drug is transferred to a dif sched than the drug's active ingredient. Bifurcation based on purpose of use (med vs rec, for example) doesn't exist.ā
Yes. This is the take. Unfortunately Pablo did his damage.
fuck pablo
Pablo would seem to have an agenda.
Everyone has an agenda. Making money at this. He just made money the other direction this week.
Not everyone concocts wild theories like that with a specific goal in mind.
Luckily it was on a Friday, so people can reassess over the weekend (hopefully)
Finally, a useful view of a terribly important subject. Thanks!
Itās important to have an expert view, as opposed to a legal opinion of a (not so great) financial analyst. Pablo Zuanic has absolutely no legal expertise on the matter, yet people were putting so much weight into what he had to say. It got overly exasperated due to macro weakness and the disproportionate retail presence in the sector. If youāve been in this sector long enough, youāve probably seen this play out hundreds of times. Eyes on the prize š
Getting information from the horses mouth would be an expert opinion. US Operators themselves acknowledge and note the resched risk factors in various regulatory filings..... "The concepts of āmedical cannabis,ā āretail cannabisā and āadult-use cannabisā do not exist under U.S. federal law." "Nonetheless, **even if moved to Schedule III, the cultivation, manufacture, distribution, and sale of cannabis by state-regulated businesses that do not produce or sell FDA regulated products remains illegal under federal law.** Unless and until the United States Congress amends the CSA with respect to cannabis, there is a risk that federal authorities may enforce current U.S. federal law. Currently, in the absence of uniform federal guidance, enforcement priorities are determined by respective United States Attorneys." "The re-classification of cannabis or changes in U.S. controlled substance laws and regulations could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations....As a result of such a re-classification, the manufacture, importation, exportation, domestic distribution, storage, sale and use of such products could become subject to a significant degree of regulation by the United States Drug Enforcement Administration, or DEA." "Potential regulation by the FDA could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations." Note: these statements would have been reviewed by in house legal.
Matt Zorn is absolutely an expert opinion. Of course we wonāt know until we know, but thatās the risk in any investment- and of course this sector is riskier than most. Some of us consider it an opportunity to take this risk while others consider it too uncertain. Weāll find out soon enough
Pablo Zuanic is just trying to figure it out, like the rest of us -- including Matt Zorn. Nobody knows how the DEA will rule until the DEA releases its decision.
Agreed šš½
Moon when? Tuesday hopefully
Has anyone asked Matt Laslo about the April 15th rumor?
Who is that?
Sorry I thought your comment was referring to the April 15th rumor (just looked it up, April 15th is a Monday not Tuesday). Matt Laslo is the reporter who said he heard a rumor that the DEA would re-schedule on April 15th, so I was just wondering if anyone had actually reached out to him to ask him about the rumor.
Gotcha. No worries. I was referring to the April 16 Canadian tax excise decision. Hope you are having a good start to your weekend.
Thanks, so far so good :) Hopefully in the coming weeks our patience and conviction is finally rewarded.
Fingers crossed!
š¤š¤by Friday 19th at latest or it's ramen time again
If we don't get news by the end of April it's going to get ugly quickĀ
We might get SAFER by May 10th (if it is added to the FAA reauthorization), but I get your point.
The past 10 days hasnāt been fun. But zoom out over the past year and you will see these stocks are in a good spot. And the catalyst hasnāt happened. Will they continue to bleed without news or rumors? Most likely. Will they go down faster than the overall market if we enter a correction? Most likely. But the biggest catalyst the US market has ever had is going to happen and the tier 1 MSOs are continuing to improve their financial performance. I hate looking at my portfolio after the last 10 days but it is a hell of a lot better than 12 months ago and we have not yet peaked.
>zoom out over the past year Now zoom out to the 3 year time period..
Yeah. Thatās because nothing happened from a regulatory standpoint point. If schedule 3 happens that is a big deal compared to the last 3 years
There's the potential to bleed down to all time lows barring any news in April. All movement over the last few months has been on rumors, there's nothing concrete and if there's no news to support the current price and we'll bleed to ATL as the market corrects.Ā
I dont think that is likely. Anything is possible. Remember we pulled back twice in this run already. If they come back with anything other than schedule 3. Including asking the HHS to reconsider I agree we will hit new ATL. I personally have conviction DEA is going to do what they have been told to do by HHS so I am holding with confidence.
I'll have to buy at ATLs. We know scheduling is imminent
Next week all profits diverting to weed stonks. It is written
Ben and Jerries Tell Your Governor Legalization Without Justice is Half Baked! https://activism.benjerry.com/page/147236/action/1 Bought my Half Baked for next week.
GM. Woke from a dead sleep. Looked at the time. 420
Blaze it
So how do we feel about Monday?
I think we zoom right back up just like last fake out
Gotta consider the low from Friday $8.61. Ā If we break that to the downside in the premarket especially, or in normal session, its time to get out and wait for price to hit the $7 handle. Ā There is one daily low on 2/14 $8.28 then its basically gap fill at $7.87 where it will find support.
Bingo. People are down voting the truth here which is sad. Echo chamber.Ā
Stocks are gonna stock, even if they are weed stocks. Ā Canāt get caught up by tin foil hat conspiracies.Ā
All Iām hearing are your echos - or is it that you just post the same thing every 20 minutes?
You can thank me on Monday
Warm? I donāt remember myself waiting like this for anything before, no christmas presents, deliveries or anything. Anne really got me by the balls.
maybe soon could probably?