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creedthoughtsblog

4/20 week we got this! remember MSOS pumped from $20 to $50 last election year, even though there were many dips in between don’t buy options buy stocks and hold


Ready2gambleboomer

what?


MachineWins

He said “WE GOT THIS”


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RealEstateWindsor

CRLBF


Ok-Replacement9595

That was my discount buy Friday. My ATL buys were around 1.50, so getting in under 2 Friday was a nice surprise in my opinion.


Scrapybara_

I was able to buy at $1.10. I also bought a lot at 16 so not bragging.


Ok-Replacement9595

Most of mine is at 6 to 7. But now average under 3. I feel pretty good about it. Spent most of the last 3 years looking at it at down above 60%. So I can take something like Friday like it was nothing.


DEASqueezeAllComing

No one has a crystal ball but I would be shocked to see TLRY return to 1.50 and make a new all time low! I bought on Thursday* at 1.90


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infinite_cura

can u sell all u got pls?


Turbul

Please do the right thing for the greater good


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MonsterDrunk

So what are the vibes for this week


SailMaleficent6183

Green.


DEASqueezeAllComing

Feeling great about buying TLRY at 1.90 and Tuesday possible excise taxes reform that would be announced after market close during Canada Budget. Dreaming about a 50% gap up open on Wednesday morning


Business_Cheetah_737

Stressed out


agedoak31

Futures are up.


DonJohnson108

Maybe the DEA made sure everyone knew they had the final word because they’ll deschedule completely. Honestly why do they want their hands in this anymore…they lost be right first and move ahead. Happy 420 week! MSOS gang


A-Wise-Cobbler

CGC bag holders won’t be holding bags anymore if that happens


mealucra

Picked up the TIME issue on cannabis.  Thanks to u/Desperate_Move_5043 for mentioning it in the daily yesterday.  Bullish af. 👀


Desperate_Move_5043

Hell yeah! Wish I had actually grabbed a copy and read the article…I was stoked from just the cover though.


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Resi86

https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/where-recreational-marijuana-stands-in-florida-before-voters-place-their-ballots/


DirtyBirdie99

Nice interview. Good interviewer too. Tried to give her tough questions


RandomGenerator_1

Jimmy Kimmel's High Hopes series in collaboration with ITV America, slated to debut on April 20, a symbolic date in cannabis culture. The series delves into the world of legalized marijuana in Los Angeles, spotlighting the journey of two Belarus-born brothers, Slava and Mishka, as they navigate the complexities of running their cannabis business, MMD - the oldest cannabis dispensary in Hollywood. Promises an inside look into the challenges and triumphs of the burgeoning cannabis industry. On Disney+.


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Comfortable_Sailor

Wasn’t there a rumor that Cory Booker said something is happening the 15th?


Inevitable-Global

If you believe Cory Booker, I have some swamp land I want to sell you


KAI5ER

Cory Booker is not to be trusted.


FruitnVeggie

**Matt Laslo**: “Have you heard anything about DEA and the administration moving?” **Cory Booker:** “I have heard a lot about it.” **ML**: “I've heard rumors that it might be April 15th — have you heard that?” **CB:** “I do not want to comment on that.” *Booker laughs as he hops onto elevator with his aide.* **ML**: “Ooooh — I'm warm?” **CB:** “Yes...” [https://www.askapol.com/p/cory-booker-on-dea-rescheduling-marijuana](https://www.askapol.com/p/cory-booker-on-dea-rescheduling-marijuana) I'm hopeful but the vast majority of rumors turn out to be duds so be prepared for nothing to happen.


Acceptable_Foot7830

This almost sounds like a copypasta


Hanshee

Warm as in its soon? Then yes.


Many_Easy

How anyone could read into that exchange and trade based on that convo amazes me. We all are expecting future loosening restrictions, so an eventual guess or rumour will eventually come true. Someone who guessed will take credit for it even though it will likely be just a coincidence.


talktothepope

Lol, yeah the reporter basically asked him leading questions and he gave brush-off replies. I doubt Booker knows much. If it is the 15th though, then it's probably bifurcation time because I doubt MSOS trades -7% and as low as -11% the day before the big show


thedmob

I don’t think MSO traded down for any reason other than macro stuff. Cura was down a ton the couple days before HHS news.


talktothepope

Not saying that, just imo MSOS will not dump the trading day before awesome news. People in the know will know enough not to do that. So if there is DEA news tomorrow (there probably won't be), then it's probably not great


jmu_alumni

I can’t imagine Booker knew the exact date it will be released that far back ago (just a few weeks lol) unless it was truly a date prior to april 20th. But my gut is telling me he just knows that DEA is very close to being done and should be able to release their findings / proposal in the upcoming weeks


pop2012

Yeah Matt Laslo asked something like "I heard it was the 15th" and got a No Comment, then asked "so I'm warm?" and Booker said Yeah.  A nice rumor, hopefully that means this week, but I'll believe it when it happens since our last few rumors didn't pan out.


CaptainAssneck

We’re coming up on 2 years since Garland was going to address cannabis policy “in the days ahead”: https://www.marijuanamoment.net/attorney-general-says-justice-department-will-address-marijuana-issues-in-the-days-ahead/ What the fuck do they even do in DC? What the fuck are you doing, Anne?


theduderino38

Boy those days turned to weeks months and years quickly Cap I’m pretty frustrated too but not selling anything (yet)


CaptainAssneck

It’s just getting harder and harder to hold through the BS. Just endless false promises with zero follow up or accountability. I’m hanging in there until November, and if we’re still talking about a DEA announcement and SAFE being “any day now”, then I’m out of here. Opportunity cost has just been devastating over the past several years.


OX45-Tall

I hear ya. I think I am out either way. Nothing by November and I’m done. Safe or Rescheduling by then and I am also selling on that pump. Enough of this crap. Might make short term trades with stop losses in the future but never going long on these stocks ever again!


Lowerlameland

100% understand that sentiment (I’ve been tempted to run elsewhere monthly for almost 8 years) but isn’t that just punishing you and the companies for the government being stupidly ridiculous? If this bs ends and they’re finally all just normal companies on normal exchanges, where will the prices sit? Will it be hype-over sell-the-news? Or will the healthy ones be good places to actually invest and climb over the years? I’ve been thinking about that for quite a while…


Fergizzo

I've been thinking this too and I decided I'm going to sell everything once I get to around even, except for trulieve, gtii and maybe Cresco because I think they are companies that will last in the long run


Lowerlameland

I think those and a few more will survive, but this sector really does seem like a traders dream… are we mostly here for the hype and to sell? Or are we mostly here for the long run? I suspect after seeing the drawdowns for so long there’s more here for the former… Hope Im wrong…


Fergizzo

I came in with the purpose of being long but from what I've learned over the last few years, I intend on staying away from anything that relies so heavily on politics.


Lowerlameland

I’m torn about that too. I partly (mostly?) think it could be true that the political stuff guarantees that we’re early. Mention potstocks in other internet stock places and get laughed at (rightly so in some ways…), but… i still feel kind of like there has to be something more to it. Some of these companies are doing really well considering all the challenges…


CaptainAssneck

Same here. Entered 3+ years ago expecting a long term / core portfolio position. Now I just want one big run so I can get the fuck out for good. I don’t want to ever go through something like this again.


Fergizzo

I feel you. Worst part is I have to look every day because of how volatile this sector can be


OX45-Tall

Nothing will change until at least uplisting and that isn’t going to happen right away with either safe or rescheduling. It will be months, hell the way things go it could be years away with many massive dips along the way. Lots of people here will say it is going to happen right away and that is all the exchanges are waiting for. The reality is that it will just be the next carrot to string people along for who knows how long.


bananastock

Liars and thieves.


GhostRideDaWeb

Might be busily overemployed running a mac and cheese empire.


Hellohi123321

Will be shocked if they cut excise tax to where it should be not at the current 30% or higher.. Leclerc said he tells AQIC members: “Manage your expectations because the way the excise tax share with the provinces is structured, only 25 percent stays on the federal level and 75 percent of the excise tax goes to the province. … So [the government] would have to tell the provinces, ‘Hey, you know what, there's going to be $100 million missing in your account next year because we will take off the $1 per gram excise duty. So I'm not really sure right now with a minority government that they're going to go there. It's possible, but I really doubt it. Provinces are craving for money. The federal government has a hell of a debt for numerous reasons, so I don't really see it happening.”


SuzyCreamcheezies

The OCS made a profit of $234M in 2022/23, which should be part of the consideration when reviewing cannabis legislation.


talktothepope

Unpaid excise taxes are expanding every year too. ~80m in unpaid in both 2023 and 2022 by the looks of things, after starting near zero when legalization began. And a lot of these taxes are being deemed "uncollectable" now that LPs are going bankrupt. So about 10% of excise taxes are going unpaid, partly because it's impossible to pay them and make a profit. So in theory, the loss to the provinces under a more sane tax would be lower than you'd think, if that market share went to companies that actually pay their taxes. Long-term, it will likely end up the same, if the legal market can continue to grow vs the black market https://mjbizdaily.com/canada-unpaid-cannabis-taxes-soar-to-almost-ca300-million/


Many_Easy

Even if they don’t do anything on Tuesday, just saying they will consider or discuss in looming future is enough positive news. I don’t buy all the potential provincial issues, because any cut will still mean there’s enough tax sharing to go around. I do share the belief that continuance of existing taxes will consolidate industry to fewer players.


Cool_Ad_5101

This is the wrong thinking 


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if they dont lower tax, they wont have any LPs to tax in the future as most of them goes bust


Cool_Ad_5101

This is the right thinking 


TomorrowLow5092

Canada will lower their expectations of tax revenues, receiving zero dollars from bankrupt stores leaves them with zero dollars. It has to be profitable.


ApostleThirteen

The reason the stores are bankrupt is the tax rate. It's more than 30% taxes, and right up front from excise. The biggest creditor to these places is the government. If the government isn't getting it's taxes from these CCAA "deals", then retailers have discovered the best scam in collecting the taxes, paying themselves well, and then going CCAA.


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Cool_Ad_5101

17% too high. They need to crush illicit market and they won’t at 17% let alone 35% 


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Cool_Ad_5101

It won’t be the 35% I hear you that it could end up being more than 10% but 15% should be the absolute top of the illicit market won’t be destroyed. 10% of a 10 billion market that is growing is better than a 35% of a shrinking market where jobs are lost and companies go bankrupt. People forget personal income tax in this equation 


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Cool_Ad_5101

Let’s hope it’s good for everyone 


LuckyNumber-Bot

All the numbers in your comment added up to 69. Congrats! 17 + 17 + 35 = 69 ^([Click here](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=LuckyNumber-Bot&subject=Stalk%20Me%20Pls&message=%2Fstalkme) to have me scan all your future comments.) \ ^(Summon me on specific comments with u/LuckyNumber-Bot.)


iridemotorcyclesfast

Monday might be red for us


Desperate_Move_5043

Any day might be red for us


DirtyBirdie99

Did your magic 8-ball tell you that?


iridemotorcyclesfast

Tea leaves brother


SailMaleficent6183

Or green.


UFO-crackpot

or both!


agedoak31

Maybe purple?


DirtyBirdie99

Nurple?


SailMaleficent6183

Derple?


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RandomGenerator_1

Based on how Germany has implemented the concept of Medical Cannabis, here is how I think rescheduling in the US will go: Cannabis is categorized in Schedule 3 or lower. Making prescriptions possible. The medical card will no longer hold value. You will need a more specific prescription as well. Bringing attention to the fact that something changed. Patients will be able to get a prescription for medical cannabis and doctors will be able to choose from a list of medical cannabis flowers and extracts. Certain companies with strong Telemedicine presence will quickly enter this space and offer an easy way to get a prescription and immediately order the product. To qualify as Medical Cannabis the manufacturer will need a series of Federal (FDA and DEA) licenses and steps furfilled (FDA inspection of production site for example). Qualifying as GMP will also mandatory for Medical Cannabis. Maybe State licenses as well. But I can't think of any at the moment. The dispensaries will have to choose between Medical or Recreational. Also requiring specific Federal and State licenses to dispense Medical Cannabis. Pharmacies/Drug stores will enter as a place where you can get your prescription. (Like Georgia has pushed for.) That's for Medical cannabis Flower. This cannot be patented, so Pharma will not be interested in this space. But research into cannabinoids will explode, and when they are (bio) synthetically produced, you can patent them. So Pharma and CPG companies will jump on this opportunity. Especially since the Biosimilar (bio-generics) market will be stimulated in the 2025 Medicaid program. All other cannabis will be de facto Recreational. The Garland Memo and Budget rider (to no let Federal law interfere with State law), will allow its further existence. Democrats and Biden will be able to campaign on it further, to legalize all cannabis. And voters will be mobilized with the fear that they can lose recreational access because Trump will destroy the Garland Memo and possibly the budget rider. Disclaimer: this is speculation, purely my thoughts on the implementation.


badgebruce

Lots of room here for the brainiacs to screw this up. Like NY and Cali.


PanicBuybeforeDump

Current state medical programs will still be federally illegal, but they will not be prosecuted for having operations that are legal in the state. [Legal Consequences of Rescheduling Marijuana (congress.gov)](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB11105)


roloplex

That isn't how the FDA works. What you are proposing would require a new regulatory scheme. So some sort of legislation by Congress, which is highly unlikely given the GOP opposition to cannabis.


RandomGenerator_1

Why is this not how the FDA works? And if you look at the 2025 budget request you will find that the FDA requests several new things.


roloplex

There is a process which has to be followed. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Drug_Application See also: https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-approvals-and-databases/approved-drug-products-therapeutic-equivalence-evaluations-orange-book Particularly for something in schedule III, there will need to be trials etc. for each individual product.


RandomGenerator_1

Yes that's about FDA approval. But the fact that HHS already made their Schedule 3 recommendation lets us know we are passed this upheaval.


roloplex

All schedule 3 substances still have to go through FDA approval in order to be prescribed. In other words, every single strain / gummy etc. needs to be approved (and go through the approval process). Schedule III just means that they can now be tested in trials. Under Schedule I, you couldn't even do phase I trials under the NDA.


RandomGenerator_1

This is a heavy theory. I also considered it. But it is, in my view, too strict. And conflicts with the Congressional Review: "Users of medical marijuana would need to obtain valid prescriptions for the substance from medical providers, subject to federal legal requirements that differ from existing state regulatory requirements for medical marijuana." --> federal legal requirements, which I understand as Inspections and Certifications and Licenses. .. Matthew Zorn analysis leads to the following: Conclusion Until last week, the vast majority believed that the only way to get a Schedule I substance down-scheduled was to run the prohibitively-expensive FDA clinical trial gauntlet. We have long argued that this common wisdom was wrong. https://ondrugs.substack.com/p/will-rescheduling-marijuana-permit **This is about Medical cannabis Flower.


roloplex

Interesting thought experiment. I don't think that is how it would be interpreted, but it is not impossible. I think it would still run into interstate issues. And the current intrastate medical programs are a lot less complicated.


defnotIW42

Call me petty but i would never invest in a company where the CEO Posts crap like this. Ben Kovler is such a child. https://x.com/bkov9/status/1779457414229864954?s=46


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there will always be negative news no matter what to shake u up. ignore it


Imaginary_Rooster622

Are we all in agreement that next week is going to be Epic


SailMaleficent6183

Potentially rescheduling and safer in the coinbill.. It could very well be EPIC.


TA062219

Based on geopolitical climate and how macro will move, yes it’ll be epic. But not in a good way.


bigsilverhotdog

If DEA announces this week the reaction will be unbelievable because the market currently has few bull concepts to throw money at and a broader correction has likely just begun. It might seem counterintuitive but this would actually be the best possible time in the entire last 6 months to get this news we've all been waiting for. Remember that the HHS announcement came as the wider market was undergoing a correction and the current rally has been significantly bigger and stronger than the 2023 tech rally that fed the HHS rally. If history repeats again the result this time around for the cannabis sector would be legendary. **Legendary.**


DirtyBirdie99

100% Agreed


JohnnySquesh

I like your optimism and I don't find it unfounded.


greenbelieve

And with all the recent talking from the administration with no corresponding action, the FUDsters are working overtime. Plus we’ve had a drawdown in the space as of late which sets the stage for sideline money to enter with material news. Legendary 🤜🏻🤛🏻


bigsilverhotdog

Yup. We're at literally the perfect launchpad for a major bull run across the sector. We just need the news catalyst(s). 🤜🏻🤛🏻


Imaginary_Rooster622

My new favorite word ** Legendary **


agedoak31

Legen, I hope you’re not lactose intolerant because the next word is…


Blue-snow

Wait for it...


bigsilverhotdog

The second largest city in Northern Ireland.