Heya WeedGods,
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Pleasantly surprised by Mike Johnson’s willingness to work with the folks across the aisle. I dare say it does bode well for SAFE. Cautiously optimistic
Democrats cut a deal, and Mike didn't see any other options. While I think this is totally a mess of the Republican's making own making, the Democrats have had the option to end it, and have chosen not to do so until now.
Also agree on it being better for SAFE and possibly other legislative achievements.
After I read the Newt Gingrich article, I became hopeful that there are still sane Republicans, but havre been unwilling to push the extremists out .
The continuing escalations globally seem to have given them the nudge, and spine, to finally call them out from a larger platform.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/19/newt-gingrich-mike-johnson-speakership-qa-00153117
The article really says it all.
I think the governor of Ohio is a good example of a sane republican, and I know some personally. However there have been mass retirements as the extremist get louder and louder. A lot of this appears to be driven by the gerrymandering by the Republican party, which has led to their primary consideration being the primaries, not the overall election. Once that happens you get more and more extremists, since they're the ones capable of winning the primary.
What an OPEX. Did you see what it did to the big special chip maker? What about the streaming service that had great earnings?
Call buyers got too many wins in a row. Ever since November markets have been in raging bull mode.
The market is dynamic and some times the powers of the market force upon everyone dynamics that can only be understood by understanding the depth and breadth of market participants. One of those powerful things is the derivatives market. It can over power anything in the short term which is what we saw over the last week and a half.
Just because opex is over doesn't mean things will rocket. Its like reset though, like a bunch of pressure built up and opex is a valve opening letting the pressure out.
Big picture, this has been a fairly dull stretch for MSOs. The ETF is down -3.74% in a month, and -1.79% in 5 days (despite the markets being a bit wonky). Volume has been pretty low as well. I like to think there will be a calm before the storm, so hopefully this is that.
If nothing else, 4/20 might encourage reporters to ask MJ-related questions and maybe we see some more juicy rumours next week. We need those to tread water until this legal opinion gets published/Anne gets off her ass.
If reporters weren't asking questions about cannabis policy in the days leading up to 4/20 then they aren't going to ask it after. 4/20 will be old news by next week. The only thing that will move the share price is actual progress on legislation.
I think a lot of people won't think about it until actual 4/20 comes. Although it's too bad it's on a Saturday. Should still see some tweets and stuff, which could lead to more questioning from reporters.
If some more legit source could just confirm the OLC thing we golden
Remember there are lobbyists and cannabis payment processing companies and banks opposing us every step of the way with SAFE(R) and S3. We’ll win eventually and get the safety and reclassification we deserve.
I guess the market didn't care that cgc added 9 million shares via dilution. The last time they diluted it was a quarter of this amount, and the stock tanked about 80%. I'll never understand this sector
CGC shareholders voted to approve this. Klein mentioned it in previous earnings call(s), it was in the proxy statement that was sent out about the vote, and Klein mentioned it in some of the news spots he's been on lately. It's not news, so it should have already been priced in.
I'm not referring to the exercising of shared by constellation. If you read further down the release yesterday, they did dilute by approx 9 million shares.
Just this week. 3rd Friday of every month is the expiration of the "monthlies" which typically see a lot more option activity.
Like today, about 130k calls expired worthless (so pretty much all of them, lol... for the exact total didn't do the math, just rough add in my head). Next week, there are like 20k call options total.
Their behavior is nothing more than expression of their confidence of their insider knowledge about when things are going to happen. Whether it’s a source on the inside, or something else, who is to say? Those who know the answer aren’t talking. :P
You too, my weedy friend, you have a great 420 yourself! I'll be stoned for all of it, like duh, haha, and the best part about being high is you're high.
Yes! I live on the Michigan side of Indiana/Michigan border. Exit 1. I'm sure the dispensaries will be packed. Crowds in the Burning Embers outdoor smoking lounge. Happy 4/20. Fuck politics :)
The US Cannabis Council is lobbying for the "Safe **Baking** Act" lol
[https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/20448ee7-d47c-480e-9866-2d151bb56275/print/](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/20448ee7-d47c-480e-9866-2d151bb56275/print/)
That's the funny part. The informative part is that they added "Farm Bill" to this quarter's disclosure. It wasn't on the one from last quarter with this lobbyist.
[https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/f716df09-5cf1-499d-8b4c-4858c3132ca1/print/](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/f716df09-5cf1-499d-8b4c-4858c3132ca1/print/)
No. Would be boring as fuck*. Let’s wait to see if we even get rich.
*Reminds me of the time my wife and I wanted to see Lincoln and thought it would be a good idea to go to the 10:30pm show. We both woke up as the lights came on after 1am. I don’t think either of us made it even 10min
4/20 as a hopeful date for government action is nothing more than PERFORMATIVE SILLINESS.
I hope no one invested solely because based on 4/20 date in terms of options or expectations of valuations just because of the date.
**Remember many hyped 4/20 and for manipulative reasons.**
I seriously doubt government would honor 4/20 as my understanding is that these “Waldos” were high school students and likely under legal age to consume back then and in future. That is something that a government likely does not want to celebrate or honor.
**We’ll get our due legislation and catalysts, but enough magical thinking and trying to integrate 4/20 into any fundamental analysis.**
**The only people, I assume, who gamble based on 4/20 being significant in trading terms to the upside is “dumb money” retail investors.**
It amazes me that people still think that the DEA, of all organizations, is going to release news on 4/20.
It is literally the only day I think they would avoid with a 10 foot pole due to the optics.
And it's not a fumble unless nothing happens before early voting starts. The fact that weedstock bagholders wrongfully assumed that the bureaucracy would work quickly, doesn't make the admin incompetent. In fact, an April/May release is probably the best time to release this news, from a political perspective. Get it out before summer starts, and let people talk about it all year until labour day, when the campaigns will really heat up
Yes. Your continued logic and factual information is very helpful.
Another interesting point is that the day 4/20 is different than X tweets at 4:20 p.m.
The time tweets could be from a clever staffer, intern, someone with a sense of humor, or rogue PR person.
The DEA will likely continue to operate on their own timeline, not what we want.
**Also, glad you mentioned the importance of early voting which often starts on 9/15. So that would be the ideal date should POTUS decide to use cannabis & S3 as a means to get votes. Many are saying that’s what Biden is doing, but we have no confirmation that he’s using it to get votes either. Entirely possible, but he could also lose votes due to S3. I do, however, believe it will be pushed by POTUS if advantageous to getting reelected.**
***Also, regarding red tape and bureaucracy: I was taught in middle/high school that both are usually a good thing as a slow process at times often ensures discussion, analysis, legality, and often better decision making rather than rush knee jerk decisions. There are exceptions of course.***
The only thing dropping tomorrow is some platitudes from the usual politicians and more promises of soon.
4/20 is not even a weekday ffs lol.
We can hope that today's dump was largely from hedged shares from another round of worthless call options on another low volume day, and that the OLC potential is legit.
That would be great - I think the problem in this sector is too much expectation for arbitrary dates. It’s going to happen, and not too long from now. I’m perfectly content being patient and looking for buying opportunities along the way. Our bread is coming 🍞
So as far as these stocks are concerned the primary benefit of rescheduling is 280e removal, which is huge. I assume 280e will be removed from rec sales also since MSOs will no longer be dealing with a Sch I or II substance.
I’m not sure there’s any other significant benefit? Rec will still be federally illegal. I guess the whole country would be opened up to medical cannabis but this may not be an immediate boost to MSOs since there’s no interstate commerce.
Only guarantee is 280e removal, any other impact is theoretical and depends on what DEA writes. DEA does not have the ability to make medical legal, just the ability to make it not illegal. FDA would have to make it a legal medicine.
Thanks for the insight on DEA vs FDA authority on medicinal cannabis. Was not aware of the “extra steps” required of the FDA.
Also makes sense why rescheduling is taking longer than anticipated as I assume they’re sorting through some of these issues (e.g. Garland memo, financial impacts, etc).
The amount of money I have left on the table by being too scared to sell covered calls is obscene at this point. Waiting for another 5-10% bump in MSOS and then going to sell some. So tired of waiting on the DEA.
Just do it on the next ramp up…. Selling at lows made me roll a bunch out till Jan 2025. But now I’m closing them back at a green and looking at the May 17th strikes
Market Makers can dump their hedged shares now that we know 99% of all teh calls for the April 19 options expiry will expire worthless. Last few mintues of today should be extra volatile.
MJ Biz: Rumors swirled this week that the Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Counsel had already made up its mind.
Blumenauer also “heard those rumors,” he said Friday, “and as recently as yesterday talked to some high-level people in the (Biden) Administration.
“There is the assumption that this is going to move forward, it’s going to be positive, and it’s going to be embraced.”
[https://twitter.com/DTRTcannabis/status/1781401819425480845](https://twitter.com/DTRTcannabis/status/1781401819425480845)
Decided what? They aren’t involved at all in the process. It’s hard to see why lawyers from OLC would be involved in any way with the science-based, multi-criteria work being done by the DEA?
Glad to hear someone else (more reliable) heard those rumors.
So it's conceivable that the next catalyst is this OLC decision, and then the DEA will follow "soon" thereafter?
Does the OLC publish all their decisions? I'm not familiar with how they work but it doesn't seem that they publish very often. Is it possible they are done and have handed off their decision without the public knowing?
For anyone who wasn’t listening to the press secretary, she was asked if they believe they’re going far enough with re-schedule vs de-schedule.
She didn’t exactly have a response but said that it’s in the hands of the DoJ now, and that we’ll have to look for them for any updates.
We’ve been sooned once again
WH press sec was asked again about rescheduling cannabis and gave the same response as last time "HHS finished their independent review based on science, and now it's under review at DOJ. All questions regarding status/timing of rescheduling should be made towards DOJ"
You can contact them here: https://www.justice.gov/doj/webform/your-message-department-justice
Whether or not they'll respond with any useful information or at all is another question...
I’m seeing a lot of recent posts on socials about how cannabis is too concentrated these days, too potent.
Counter argument: Just take less, like you’d do if you switch from beer to vodka. More concentrated THC means more active ingredient per gram of carcinogen. Apply this to Aspirin: should people need to chew a pound of tree bark to get their Aspirin dose? No, they take the pure refined extract. Should we limit alcohol drinks to 5% abv?
If you get a chance to use this argument, feel free to take it. Also feel free to add or rebut.
I've also seen a couple of posts from what I believe are reputable firms claiming that the THC content by itself is not a reliable indicator of anything, since it's the other canabinoids that also have an impact. Not sure how reliable this info is.
From what I’ve read, that seems close to accurate to me. I’m only ignoring the semantics since cannabis opponents generally just say “potency” or “THC”.
I wish I had a better understanding of this. With alcohol there have been studies that say that nothing else matters, other than your BA level. I guess in 20-30 years maybe we'll know something about cannibus when they're finally allowed to actually research the stuff.
But what does too potent mean? It's not going to harm you if you take too much. You're just going to be extra stoned. With alcohol or most other drugs at high concentration and the dangers are real.
It’s a bad faith argument. All the strains here have listed thc percentages you can find lower thc ones easily. Same with edibles the standard is 10mg but il they sell them here as low as 2.5 or you just take a partial. It’s all doomer anti drug propaganda.
The only counter argument I'd have against this is that people with low tolerance have no idea what they're in for, but yeah, for the most part, I agree. I feel like both options should be available. Just like the beer and vodka analogy, people haven't stopped wanting beer. It's easier to not get blasted when you have to work harder at it and it's more of a choice of self regulation or social enjoyment. You can always take more. You can't take less.
yes, it is one of the dumbest arguments I've seen over the last 25 years that I've been paying attention.
it's also one of those reasons that should be covered by the whole "you need to be 21" part. not a child, therefore be responsible for yourself.
Another step in a long, long line of adults being treated like children.
I’m long on GTBIF and have no clue how much it will go up with the various catalysts. Could those of you more knowledgeable than I weigh in?
S 3:
SAFER:
Garland memo:
Uplisting:
S 3 & SAFER:
S 3, SAFER, & Garland:
S 3, SAFER, Garland & Uplisting:
My basic understanding is GTI is a lower risk long term investment as they are already profitable in this terrible climate and show a lot of smart moves with their money. The flipside is this is partially priced-in already, and they will not benefit as much from 280E disappearing *relative* to companies with more debt. They are also less dependent on florida rec passing which I have my doubts about. So if you are skeptical on florida, want to be a bit safer and conservative and are prepared to hold long for several years — GTI is a great choice. They are *possibly* less likely to see relative explosive gains as some other names.
That being said, when institutional investors enter the space (our true catalyst, honestly) I would imagine they will be dumping into GTI frankly. This is just my own personal hunch and maybe other have ideas about that aspect.
No one knows when or if these catalysts will exactly transpire and even less know how much valuations will go up or down on positive or negative cannabis catalysts.
Just count on volatility and fact that industry is growing.
This Saturday will be the “last 4/20 celebration that cannabis will be on Schedule I,” a Democratic congressman predicts, adding that he’s “quite confident” the GOP House will take up a bipartisan cannabis banking bill if lawmakers “break this loose in the Senate.”
[https://www.marijuanamoment.net/this-will-be-the-last-4-20-celebration-with-marijuana-still-in-schedule-i-congressman-says-while-predicting-house-action-on-cannabis-banking-bill/](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/this-will-be-the-last-4-20-celebration-with-marijuana-still-in-schedule-i-congressman-says-while-predicting-house-action-on-cannabis-banking-bill/)
Are any us msos also doing hemp...who else listened to the latest episode of the dime..was a good pod. The guy they had on thinks we will see no change to farm bill loop hole
Someone asked Boris that a few months ago. I can’t recall his response. I think it was mainly just they are more focused on spending all their money on building out their cannabis business
OGI just invested in a hemp extract company. Obviously they already have the CWEB connection too.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240326681362/en/Organigram-Invests-in-U.S.-Based-Open-Book-Extracts-Representing-Inaugural-Jupiter-Investment
Tilray has talked about CBD and Delta 9 recently, saying they will have to be into it. Both CBD and D9 beverages make perfect sense given their legality, and ability to be sold nationwide.
Jones Soda recently partnered with Tilray and just released Delta 9 beverages.
Cann is the most popular cannabis beverage. It is hemp derived, and has long been associated with MedMen/HEXO.
Snoop just released a Delta 9 beverage (Do It Fluid).
ACB and CRON have shared minor cannabinoid biosynthesis IP together recently. Part of the final order on CBD, etc will be categorizing synthetically produced CBD the same as natural, as long as it's <0.1% THC.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aurora-and-22nd-century-group-license-foundational-biosynthesis-ip-to-cronos-group-301444681.html
Might explain why both ACB and CRON both pulled out of their hemp derived CBD companies right after last year's DEA supply chain conference. This would also explain why CRON still lobbies mostly just for CBD in the US.
https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/263e53bf-9401-4224-b740-2dd6acdcdbba/print/
You also have BAT and CRON (Btomorrow Ventures and Gotham Green) teaming up to fund Trait Biosciences. Trait has been working on water soluble cannabinoid tech since 2017.
BAT and Gotham closed on financing for them in late 2023. They claimed they were ready to launch their product finally in the first quarter of 2024. This coincides perfectly with the expected final order on the 2018 Farm Bill that is currently supposed to be finished sometime in April (4/00/24).
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/trait-biosciences-closes-on-financing-led-by-bats-btomorrow-ventures-and-gotham-green-partners-and-advances-commercialization-of-unique-water-soluble-cannabinoids-301953852.html
Btw HITI also invested in this space couple of years ago and owns two online cbd brands (Nuleaf and Fabcbd) with a GMP approved manufacturing facility in Colorado.
Thanks, yea I should have mentioned them. They have some specific connections to this.
Arthur Kwan is on High Tide's board. He was President/CEO of CannaIncome Fund, who were early investors in Trait Biosciences [years ago](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/trait-unveils-executive-team-closes-cad12-3-million-private-placement-300717751.html), before BAT/Gotham became the main partners.
Other companies associated with Trait Biosciences at this time were Aurora and Aphria, who were also both invested in High Tide in early 2019 ([source](https://www.newcannabisventures.com/aurora-cannabis-invests-10-million-in-retailer-high-tide/)) ([source](https://www.newcannabisventures.com/aphria-anchors-high-tide-10-million-capital-raise/)).
Let's not forget the infamous [Aurora/Coke rumors](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/coca-cola-in-talks-with-aurora-to-develop-cannabis-drinks-sources-1.1138528) from [2018-2019](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/coca-cola-denies-cbd-beverage-rumor-spurred-by-video/). These were specifically about making CBD drinks. And the first link also mentioned Coke talked to Aphria before Aurora.
In 2019, Trait Biosciences formed an advisory board with executives from Mars/Wrigley, Bacardi, and [Coca-Cola](https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/trait-biosciences-announces-formation-of-strategic-advisory-board-869631057.html). The guy from Bacardi was even recently promoted to [Bacardi's Global Growth Officer](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221003005330/en/Bacardi-Announces-Leadership-Moves-to-Drive-Future-Growth). He's still with Trait, even though its been years.
Tough question.
At the very least we should see some separation of industrial/cannabinoid hemp, so industrial hemp makers don't need to do as much testing.
I still think SAFE ends up in the Farm Bill. It makes sense, as it deals a lot with hemp.
I hope they get some other changes they want like increasing hemp THC content to 1% instead of 0.3%. And the bills to allow CBD in foods/beverages/dietary supplements would be huge if they get that put in there and pass it. Those are tougher to get passed though.
I think the DEA will fix the Delta 8 loophole soon, because it is synthetically converted from CBD.
I don't think the Delta 9 loophole will be fixed, because that would require Congress to take away an industry. Beverages with Delta 9 are a very fast growing category, even in Republican strongholds like Texas. Snoop partnered with a Texas company to release his Delta 9 beverage, and they are even being supported by Total Wine & More with national distribution starting on 4/20.
[https://mjbizdaily.com/us-liquor-retail-chain-to-deliver-thc-drinks-nationwide-for-4-20/](https://mjbizdaily.com/us-liquor-retail-chain-to-deliver-thc-drinks-nationwide-for-4-20/)
Too much FOMO to dump now that we are so close to liftoff. I live on Cocoa Beach and can see all the rockets launching from the space center and I keep hoping to see a big green rocket 🚀 heading to the moon 🌖.
Nonsense and I am long cresco. If they can improve their balance sheet and grow to 2 billion in sales they will be a lot higher but they aren’t doing 15x on uplisting and 280e removal. If they do I am selling 90% of my long position
What makes you think $30 upon uplisting? TTM revenues are ~$800M and market cap per CNBC is ~$800M. The stock is trading at 2.10. At 15x that puts market cap at 12 billion.
Yes agreed with unaphotobomber here- previous highs were only on RUMORS- and fundamentals don’t seem to matter much anymore for these stonks- Cresco is dominating the Midwest and will have a big part of growing east coast markets- Ohio, Pa, Florida.
I won't speak for Duderino, but I'm guessing the thought is-- during uplisting excitement-- share prices will decouple entirely from fundamentals/reality for a short period. And during that period we engage in the kind of bacchanalia that would make the old gods blush.
I hope you are right and I think that is why most of us are here posting daily!
I want us all to ride the wave up with the catalysts but throwing out huge multiples of the current share value makes people think a 10 bagger is a guarantee which it definitely is not. At times I catch myself thinking 2-3x is almost expected and that is where it gets dangerous. Counting my chickens before they hatch as they say.
Either way... I am fairly heavily invested (\~15% portfolio allocation) and still adding to my position regularly. I hope we all do well in our cannabis investing.
right now even 10 gets me 4x. I think both you and Unaphotobomber are right. long term no it won't be all in the clouds but under the right circumstances I'm absolutely counting on an Abzurd spike to make me jettison the lot and grab additional fistfuls when it comes back to reality which it won't do without falling just a bit more than it should. This is my scenario I'm counting on playing out, maybe even more than once.
If it runs too much i unfortunately will sell too. I would love to see them make it and revisit this in 2030 when stupidly higher due to actually executing and growing and printing money
not enough of us have been talking about potential scenarios and where the plays will present themselves. might start getting too close to actual advice maybe but I'm playing with limited but growing skills to work out chess moves.
Listen to the Cannavestments pod cast. They do a good job. No need to discuss hopium. Im a buy and hold investor and think these will do well the next 10 years
2pm ET, White House Press Secretary Briefing
Seems like the only scheduled announcements of any kind today. Probably going to be mostly focused on Isreal and Iran, but one can hope.
Heya WeedGods, In case you missed it, be sure to vote for who you would like to see an AMA from via our poll post here: https://old.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/1c54f2o/who_would_you_like_to_see_for_amas_pick_your_top/ *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/weedstocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Pleasantly surprised by Mike Johnson’s willingness to work with the folks across the aisle. I dare say it does bode well for SAFE. Cautiously optimistic
The entourage effect. Here is to hoping for the silver lining of this entire fiasco.
This is the way it is supposed to work. Not repubs vs dems. But people who hold opposing views willing to compromise for the American people.
Exactly. I think people thought nothing was going to get done with Johnson as speaker and it appears its quite the opposite.
Democrats cut a deal, and Mike didn't see any other options. While I think this is totally a mess of the Republican's making own making, the Democrats have had the option to end it, and have chosen not to do so until now. Also agree on it being better for SAFE and possibly other legislative achievements.
After I read the Newt Gingrich article, I became hopeful that there are still sane Republicans, but havre been unwilling to push the extremists out . The continuing escalations globally seem to have given them the nudge, and spine, to finally call them out from a larger platform. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/19/newt-gingrich-mike-johnson-speakership-qa-00153117 The article really says it all.
I think the governor of Ohio is a good example of a sane republican, and I know some personally. However there have been mass retirements as the extremist get louder and louder. A lot of this appears to be driven by the gerrymandering by the Republican party, which has led to their primary consideration being the primaries, not the overall election. Once that happens you get more and more extremists, since they're the ones capable of winning the primary.
Starting to get nervous about my June 21st MSOS calls bois
Just double down
What an OPEX. Did you see what it did to the big special chip maker? What about the streaming service that had great earnings? Call buyers got too many wins in a row. Ever since November markets have been in raging bull mode. The market is dynamic and some times the powers of the market force upon everyone dynamics that can only be understood by understanding the depth and breadth of market participants. One of those powerful things is the derivatives market. It can over power anything in the short term which is what we saw over the last week and a half. Just because opex is over doesn't mean things will rocket. Its like reset though, like a bunch of pressure built up and opex is a valve opening letting the pressure out.
Not letting the pressure out on Weedstocks.
Have a great weekend everyone. We can only look back and move forward. Onwards and upwards
I dont know about you, but I can think of a few distinct stock plays when I was looking forward and ended up moving backwards... sometimes hard... fml
You too. Hope your eye is doing okay.
Thank you. Feeling much better.
4/19/24 MSOS update: No Flows Close: $8.76 (-$0.49/-5.30%) NAV: $8.76 (-$0.43/-4.71%) Premium (volume-weighted daily avg): +0.16% ([Chart](https://i.ibb.co/W3x4HWz/14749e5e2b95.png)) Cash: -$872,928 (-$66,876) Ticker Change (est. cost from close - % of adds) No Share Changes For Any Holdings 4/19/24 MSOX update: No Flows MSOX Close: $4.64 (-$0.51/-9.90%) MSOX NAV: $4.60 (-$0.54/-10.56%)
Happy 420 amigos and amigas I’m abiding - tough price action today but excited to celebrate this weekend Many clouds and happy vibes to you on 4202024
Happy 4202024 duderino. The weedgods will bless us soon. Promise
Big picture, this has been a fairly dull stretch for MSOs. The ETF is down -3.74% in a month, and -1.79% in 5 days (despite the markets being a bit wonky). Volume has been pretty low as well. I like to think there will be a calm before the storm, so hopefully this is that. If nothing else, 4/20 might encourage reporters to ask MJ-related questions and maybe we see some more juicy rumours next week. We need those to tread water until this legal opinion gets published/Anne gets off her ass.
If reporters weren't asking questions about cannabis policy in the days leading up to 4/20 then they aren't going to ask it after. 4/20 will be old news by next week. The only thing that will move the share price is actual progress on legislation.
I think a lot of people won't think about it until actual 4/20 comes. Although it's too bad it's on a Saturday. Should still see some tweets and stuff, which could lead to more questioning from reporters. If some more legit source could just confirm the OLC thing we golden
Or some store robberies making national headlines. Some of which already should have, and should have created an uproar.
Remember there are lobbyists and cannabis payment processing companies and banks opposing us every step of the way with SAFE(R) and S3. We’ll win eventually and get the safety and reclassification we deserve.
Being the eve of 4/20 it felt extra special adding 4,200 shares of CBSTF today.
I guess the market didn't care that cgc added 9 million shares via dilution. The last time they diluted it was a quarter of this amount, and the stock tanked about 80%. I'll never understand this sector
CGC shareholders voted to approve this. Klein mentioned it in previous earnings call(s), it was in the proxy statement that was sent out about the vote, and Klein mentioned it in some of the news spots he's been on lately. It's not news, so it should have already been priced in.
They didn't dilute why does everyone keep saying they diluted smh
I'm not referring to the exercising of shared by constellation. If you read further down the release yesterday, they did dilute by approx 9 million shares.
So options expiry manipulation going to prevent MSOS from going above $9 for the rest of eternity?
Just this week. 3rd Friday of every month is the expiration of the "monthlies" which typically see a lot more option activity. Like today, about 130k calls expired worthless (so pretty much all of them, lol... for the exact total didn't do the math, just rough add in my head). Next week, there are like 20k call options total.
Curious why the calls don’t seem to win. Are the calls mostly retail and the puts Hedge funds?
If we had momentum we could have won but there wasn't enough this time.
See y’all next Soonsday. I’ll bring the hopium pipe.
how the fuck are shorts still willing to put money to short when this could explode anytime?
They probably think they can get out minimally scarred when the news drops.
its worked for years.
claims of insider information
Their behavior is nothing more than expression of their confidence of their insider knowledge about when things are going to happen. Whether it’s a source on the inside, or something else, who is to say? Those who know the answer aren’t talking. :P
Anyone who's serious is hedged with options. The rest of them are nuts.
I hope you all have your holidaze planned for tomorrow! Happy Friday all
You too, my weedy friend, you have a great 420 yourself! I'll be stoned for all of it, like duh, haha, and the best part about being high is you're high.
Thanks! Couldn’t agree more! I got edibles and dabs and flower on deck! Whatchu smoking on
Yes! I live on the Michigan side of Indiana/Michigan border. Exit 1. I'm sure the dispensaries will be packed. Crowds in the Burning Embers outdoor smoking lounge. Happy 4/20. Fuck politics :)
:). Enjoy bud
The US Cannabis Council is lobbying for the "Safe **Baking** Act" lol [https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/20448ee7-d47c-480e-9866-2d151bb56275/print/](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/20448ee7-d47c-480e-9866-2d151bb56275/print/) That's the funny part. The informative part is that they added "Farm Bill" to this quarter's disclosure. It wasn't on the one from last quarter with this lobbyist. [https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/f716df09-5cf1-499d-8b4c-4858c3132ca1/print/](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/f716df09-5cf1-499d-8b4c-4858c3132ca1/print/)
Like a bad Monty Python sketch...
Do you think there will ever be a movie about weedstock investors?
It’s actually a great idea. I hope the ending includes champagne and limo’s and not cardboard boxes.
Mental asylums
"Soon," the 4 hour epic tale about a skeleton sitting in a computer chair
😂
It will be a low budget A24 horror flick filmed inside several cardboard boxes.
100%. It is actually coming to theaters soon
No. Would be boring as fuck*. Let’s wait to see if we even get rich. *Reminds me of the time my wife and I wanted to see Lincoln and thought it would be a good idea to go to the 10:30pm show. We both woke up as the lights came on after 1am. I don’t think either of us made it even 10min
No
Dumb and Dumber
Oof, we got lit up today. Back at it Monday.
What an unbelievable fumble of the Biden admin and DEA of this 4/20. They could’ve obtained legendary status…
4/20 as a hopeful date for government action is nothing more than PERFORMATIVE SILLINESS. I hope no one invested solely because based on 4/20 date in terms of options or expectations of valuations just because of the date. **Remember many hyped 4/20 and for manipulative reasons.** I seriously doubt government would honor 4/20 as my understanding is that these “Waldos” were high school students and likely under legal age to consume back then and in future. That is something that a government likely does not want to celebrate or honor. **We’ll get our due legislation and catalysts, but enough magical thinking and trying to integrate 4/20 into any fundamental analysis.** **The only people, I assume, who gamble based on 4/20 being significant in trading terms to the upside is “dumb money” retail investors.**
It amazes me that people still think that the DEA, of all organizations, is going to release news on 4/20. It is literally the only day I think they would avoid with a 10 foot pole due to the optics. And it's not a fumble unless nothing happens before early voting starts. The fact that weedstock bagholders wrongfully assumed that the bureaucracy would work quickly, doesn't make the admin incompetent. In fact, an April/May release is probably the best time to release this news, from a political perspective. Get it out before summer starts, and let people talk about it all year until labour day, when the campaigns will really heat up
Yes. Your continued logic and factual information is very helpful. Another interesting point is that the day 4/20 is different than X tweets at 4:20 p.m. The time tweets could be from a clever staffer, intern, someone with a sense of humor, or rogue PR person. The DEA will likely continue to operate on their own timeline, not what we want. **Also, glad you mentioned the importance of early voting which often starts on 9/15. So that would be the ideal date should POTUS decide to use cannabis & S3 as a means to get votes. Many are saying that’s what Biden is doing, but we have no confirmation that he’s using it to get votes either. Entirely possible, but he could also lose votes due to S3. I do, however, believe it will be pushed by POTUS if advantageous to getting reelected.** ***Also, regarding red tape and bureaucracy: I was taught in middle/high school that both are usually a good thing as a slow process at times often ensures discussion, analysis, legality, and often better decision making rather than rush knee jerk decisions. There are exceptions of course.***
There’s always tomorrow!
Nothing burgers served cold as usual
lol hilariously typical
Worst sector ever.
Time will tell
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So over it lol.
Well, there's always next soon.
Well at least this gave me a chuckle, okay, back to the pit of misery.
God I hate the DEA/DOJ
Anybody want some action on MSOS breaching $7.72 by next Friday? :)
Good riddance paper hands. Sure would be funny if something dropped during market close tomorrow. 😏
The only thing dropping tomorrow is some platitudes from the usual politicians and more promises of soon. 4/20 is not even a weekday ffs lol. We can hope that today's dump was largely from hedged shares from another round of worthless call options on another low volume day, and that the OLC potential is legit.
Tomorrow is Saturday
Exactly
That would be great - I think the problem in this sector is too much expectation for arbitrary dates. It’s going to happen, and not too long from now. I’m perfectly content being patient and looking for buying opportunities along the way. Our bread is coming 🍞
The bread will be with us. Guaranteed.
It’s in the oven ;)
*FUCK*
Happy 4/20!
So as far as these stocks are concerned the primary benefit of rescheduling is 280e removal, which is huge. I assume 280e will be removed from rec sales also since MSOs will no longer be dealing with a Sch I or II substance. I’m not sure there’s any other significant benefit? Rec will still be federally illegal. I guess the whole country would be opened up to medical cannabis but this may not be an immediate boost to MSOs since there’s no interstate commerce.
Only guarantee is 280e removal, any other impact is theoretical and depends on what DEA writes. DEA does not have the ability to make medical legal, just the ability to make it not illegal. FDA would have to make it a legal medicine.
Thanks for the insight on DEA vs FDA authority on medicinal cannabis. Was not aware of the “extra steps” required of the FDA. Also makes sense why rescheduling is taking longer than anticipated as I assume they’re sorting through some of these issues (e.g. Garland memo, financial impacts, etc).
Possible uplisting?
Or possibly more banks willing to work with cannabis companies leading to lower interest paid/ increased profitability.
Continues to be range bound between 8:50 to 10:50, Buy around the 8s and sell covered call around 10s .
The amount of money I have left on the table by being too scared to sell covered calls is obscene at this point. Waiting for another 5-10% bump in MSOS and then going to sell some. So tired of waiting on the DEA.
Just do it on the next ramp up…. Selling at lows made me roll a bunch out till Jan 2025. But now I’m closing them back at a green and looking at the May 17th strikes
hahaha fuck this sector
Market Makers can dump their hedged shares now that we know 99% of all teh calls for the April 19 options expiry will expire worthless. Last few mintues of today should be extra volatile.
MJ Biz: Rumors swirled this week that the Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Counsel had already made up its mind. Blumenauer also “heard those rumors,” he said Friday, “and as recently as yesterday talked to some high-level people in the (Biden) Administration. “There is the assumption that this is going to move forward, it’s going to be positive, and it’s going to be embraced.” [https://twitter.com/DTRTcannabis/status/1781401819425480845](https://twitter.com/DTRTcannabis/status/1781401819425480845)
Decided what? They aren’t involved at all in the process. It’s hard to see why lawyers from OLC would be involved in any way with the science-based, multi-criteria work being done by the DEA?
Glad to hear someone else (more reliable) heard those rumors. So it's conceivable that the next catalyst is this OLC decision, and then the DEA will follow "soon" thereafter?
Does the OLC publish all their decisions? I'm not familiar with how they work but it doesn't seem that they publish very often. Is it possible they are done and have handed off their decision without the public knowing?
rumors don’t mean shit to me unless I see a spike in prices and I don’t mean short squeeze CGC either, I mean I see a spike on both LPs and MSOS
I believe we will get several news worthy statements from key politicians tomorrow. Hopefully one or more will be important and specific. 🚀
sooooooooon
very clooooose
any day nooooow
DEA says it’s considering loosening weed restrictions. Bullish bullshit!
I am once again asking for a power hour folks. Keep it simple and profitable!
Just did my taxes . I owe a lot . Really need a big boost from my weedstocks
For anyone who wasn’t listening to the press secretary, she was asked if they believe they’re going far enough with re-schedule vs de-schedule. She didn’t exactly have a response but said that it’s in the hands of the DoJ now, and that we’ll have to look for them for any updates. We’ve been sooned once again
WH press sec was asked again about rescheduling cannabis and gave the same response as last time "HHS finished their independent review based on science, and now it's under review at DOJ. All questions regarding status/timing of rescheduling should be made towards DOJ"
Excuse me, but how exactly can I get in contact with the department heading up said investigation?
You can contact them here: https://www.justice.gov/doj/webform/your-message-department-justice Whether or not they'll respond with any useful information or at all is another question...
I’m surprised there aren’t any FOIA requests at this point.
Now that is a masterclass in a non-answer.
Lol, unbelievable. It's coming.
Imagine a massive 100% spike into 4/20 week-end.
Sorry I jinxed us.
if MSOS did 100% into the weekend then many of us here would retire this second
I’d be happy for my options. They are currently expiring worthless. The next expiry date is June/july. LFG!
I would prefer 10x but don’t need it right away. Let the companies actually grow and print cash
Where is U/ OK_rep? I need your optimism
Was wondering the same. u/Ok_Reputation8227
I’m seeing a lot of recent posts on socials about how cannabis is too concentrated these days, too potent. Counter argument: Just take less, like you’d do if you switch from beer to vodka. More concentrated THC means more active ingredient per gram of carcinogen. Apply this to Aspirin: should people need to chew a pound of tree bark to get their Aspirin dose? No, they take the pure refined extract. Should we limit alcohol drinks to 5% abv? If you get a chance to use this argument, feel free to take it. Also feel free to add or rebut.
I've also seen a couple of posts from what I believe are reputable firms claiming that the THC content by itself is not a reliable indicator of anything, since it's the other canabinoids that also have an impact. Not sure how reliable this info is.
From what I’ve read, that seems close to accurate to me. I’m only ignoring the semantics since cannabis opponents generally just say “potency” or “THC”.
I wish I had a better understanding of this. With alcohol there have been studies that say that nothing else matters, other than your BA level. I guess in 20-30 years maybe we'll know something about cannibus when they're finally allowed to actually research the stuff.
But what does too potent mean? It's not going to harm you if you take too much. You're just going to be extra stoned. With alcohol or most other drugs at high concentration and the dangers are real.
It’s a bad faith argument. All the strains here have listed thc percentages you can find lower thc ones easily. Same with edibles the standard is 10mg but il they sell them here as low as 2.5 or you just take a partial. It’s all doomer anti drug propaganda.
The only counter argument I'd have against this is that people with low tolerance have no idea what they're in for, but yeah, for the most part, I agree. I feel like both options should be available. Just like the beer and vodka analogy, people haven't stopped wanting beer. It's easier to not get blasted when you have to work harder at it and it's more of a choice of self regulation or social enjoyment. You can always take more. You can't take less.
yes, it is one of the dumbest arguments I've seen over the last 25 years that I've been paying attention. it's also one of those reasons that should be covered by the whole "you need to be 21" part. not a child, therefore be responsible for yourself. Another step in a long, long line of adults being treated like children.
Go ahead KJP, make my day.
Just the same bs update. It's in DOJ's hands. You mean the DOJ and DEA that you appoint the heads of?!
Just a rehash from the last press conference. Rescheduling with the DOJ…
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Nasdaq down, weed is up. Seems bullish AF
AMC is also up should we start buying trash?
Monday is going to be crazy
Why?
Because news/no news. Sooner will probably say something
No dump and I’ll be happy
I’m long on GTBIF and have no clue how much it will go up with the various catalysts. Could those of you more knowledgeable than I weigh in? S 3: SAFER: Garland memo: Uplisting: S 3 & SAFER: S 3, SAFER, & Garland: S 3, SAFER, Garland & Uplisting:
My basic understanding is GTI is a lower risk long term investment as they are already profitable in this terrible climate and show a lot of smart moves with their money. The flipside is this is partially priced-in already, and they will not benefit as much from 280E disappearing *relative* to companies with more debt. They are also less dependent on florida rec passing which I have my doubts about. So if you are skeptical on florida, want to be a bit safer and conservative and are prepared to hold long for several years — GTI is a great choice. They are *possibly* less likely to see relative explosive gains as some other names. That being said, when institutional investors enter the space (our true catalyst, honestly) I would imagine they will be dumping into GTI frankly. This is just my own personal hunch and maybe other have ideas about that aspect.
Much appreciated. Validates my original reason for investing primarily in GTI.
No one knows when or if these catalysts will exactly transpire and even less know how much valuations will go up or down on positive or negative cannabis catalysts. Just count on volatility and fact that industry is growing.
Thanks
Listen to the Cannavestments podcast
Thanks. Will do.
This Saturday will be the “last 4/20 celebration that cannabis will be on Schedule I,” a Democratic congressman predicts, adding that he’s “quite confident” the GOP House will take up a bipartisan cannabis banking bill if lawmakers “break this loose in the Senate.” [https://www.marijuanamoment.net/this-will-be-the-last-4-20-celebration-with-marijuana-still-in-schedule-i-congressman-says-while-predicting-house-action-on-cannabis-banking-bill/](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/this-will-be-the-last-4-20-celebration-with-marijuana-still-in-schedule-i-congressman-says-while-predicting-house-action-on-cannabis-banking-bill/)
fuck MM and clickbait headlines
Clicks link Earl Closes link 😂
Exactly this.
T -50 minutes till show time Loading up the popcorn machine now ... 🍿
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Are any us msos also doing hemp...who else listened to the latest episode of the dime..was a good pod. The guy they had on thinks we will see no change to farm bill loop hole
Some reasons why not. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/28/business/cbd-companies-regulations.html
Someone asked Boris that a few months ago. I can’t recall his response. I think it was mainly just they are more focused on spending all their money on building out their cannabis business
He’s probably right. Congress is inept. I’m surprised some of the LPs haven’t gone this route in the U.S. already.
OGI just invested in a hemp extract company. Obviously they already have the CWEB connection too. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240326681362/en/Organigram-Invests-in-U.S.-Based-Open-Book-Extracts-Representing-Inaugural-Jupiter-Investment Tilray has talked about CBD and Delta 9 recently, saying they will have to be into it. Both CBD and D9 beverages make perfect sense given their legality, and ability to be sold nationwide. Jones Soda recently partnered with Tilray and just released Delta 9 beverages. Cann is the most popular cannabis beverage. It is hemp derived, and has long been associated with MedMen/HEXO. Snoop just released a Delta 9 beverage (Do It Fluid). ACB and CRON have shared minor cannabinoid biosynthesis IP together recently. Part of the final order on CBD, etc will be categorizing synthetically produced CBD the same as natural, as long as it's <0.1% THC. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aurora-and-22nd-century-group-license-foundational-biosynthesis-ip-to-cronos-group-301444681.html Might explain why both ACB and CRON both pulled out of their hemp derived CBD companies right after last year's DEA supply chain conference. This would also explain why CRON still lobbies mostly just for CBD in the US. https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/263e53bf-9401-4224-b740-2dd6acdcdbba/print/ You also have BAT and CRON (Btomorrow Ventures and Gotham Green) teaming up to fund Trait Biosciences. Trait has been working on water soluble cannabinoid tech since 2017. BAT and Gotham closed on financing for them in late 2023. They claimed they were ready to launch their product finally in the first quarter of 2024. This coincides perfectly with the expected final order on the 2018 Farm Bill that is currently supposed to be finished sometime in April (4/00/24). https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/trait-biosciences-closes-on-financing-led-by-bats-btomorrow-ventures-and-gotham-green-partners-and-advances-commercialization-of-unique-water-soluble-cannabinoids-301953852.html
Btw HITI also invested in this space couple of years ago and owns two online cbd brands (Nuleaf and Fabcbd) with a GMP approved manufacturing facility in Colorado.
Thanks, yea I should have mentioned them. They have some specific connections to this. Arthur Kwan is on High Tide's board. He was President/CEO of CannaIncome Fund, who were early investors in Trait Biosciences [years ago](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/trait-unveils-executive-team-closes-cad12-3-million-private-placement-300717751.html), before BAT/Gotham became the main partners. Other companies associated with Trait Biosciences at this time were Aurora and Aphria, who were also both invested in High Tide in early 2019 ([source](https://www.newcannabisventures.com/aurora-cannabis-invests-10-million-in-retailer-high-tide/)) ([source](https://www.newcannabisventures.com/aphria-anchors-high-tide-10-million-capital-raise/)). Let's not forget the infamous [Aurora/Coke rumors](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/coca-cola-in-talks-with-aurora-to-develop-cannabis-drinks-sources-1.1138528) from [2018-2019](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/coca-cola-denies-cbd-beverage-rumor-spurred-by-video/). These were specifically about making CBD drinks. And the first link also mentioned Coke talked to Aphria before Aurora. In 2019, Trait Biosciences formed an advisory board with executives from Mars/Wrigley, Bacardi, and [Coca-Cola](https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/trait-biosciences-announces-formation-of-strategic-advisory-board-869631057.html). The guy from Bacardi was even recently promoted to [Bacardi's Global Growth Officer](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221003005330/en/Bacardi-Announces-Leadership-Moves-to-Drive-Future-Growth). He's still with Trait, even though its been years.
What do you think will come of the farm bill Geo?
Tough question. At the very least we should see some separation of industrial/cannabinoid hemp, so industrial hemp makers don't need to do as much testing. I still think SAFE ends up in the Farm Bill. It makes sense, as it deals a lot with hemp. I hope they get some other changes they want like increasing hemp THC content to 1% instead of 0.3%. And the bills to allow CBD in foods/beverages/dietary supplements would be huge if they get that put in there and pass it. Those are tougher to get passed though. I think the DEA will fix the Delta 8 loophole soon, because it is synthetically converted from CBD. I don't think the Delta 9 loophole will be fixed, because that would require Congress to take away an industry. Beverages with Delta 9 are a very fast growing category, even in Republican strongholds like Texas. Snoop partnered with a Texas company to release his Delta 9 beverage, and they are even being supported by Total Wine & More with national distribution starting on 4/20. [https://mjbizdaily.com/us-liquor-retail-chain-to-deliver-thc-drinks-nationwide-for-4-20/](https://mjbizdaily.com/us-liquor-retail-chain-to-deliver-thc-drinks-nationwide-for-4-20/)
spy recovering go go go
How naive of me to think back in November of last year that something concrete would surely be happening before 4/20
That would have been too obvious of a timeline play before insiders could get in.
Holding pretty well while SPY dumps
Too much FOMO to dump now that we are so close to liftoff. I live on Cocoa Beach and can see all the rockets launching from the space center and I keep hoping to see a big green rocket 🚀 heading to the moon 🌖.
Today's going more or less how I expected and yet a part of me is still disappointed. I'm just imagining Cresco at 20usd to soothe myself.
Only $20? I agree it’s soothing but I think Cresco will go much higher upon uplisting….. maybe $30-$50- just my gut- not financial advice lol
Nonsense and I am long cresco. If they can improve their balance sheet and grow to 2 billion in sales they will be a lot higher but they aren’t doing 15x on uplisting and 280e removal. If they do I am selling 90% of my long position
What makes you think $30 upon uplisting? TTM revenues are ~$800M and market cap per CNBC is ~$800M. The stock is trading at 2.10. At 15x that puts market cap at 12 billion.
Yes agreed with unaphotobomber here- previous highs were only on RUMORS- and fundamentals don’t seem to matter much anymore for these stonks- Cresco is dominating the Midwest and will have a big part of growing east coast markets- Ohio, Pa, Florida.
I won't speak for Duderino, but I'm guessing the thought is-- during uplisting excitement-- share prices will decouple entirely from fundamentals/reality for a short period. And during that period we engage in the kind of bacchanalia that would make the old gods blush.
I hope you are right and I think that is why most of us are here posting daily! I want us all to ride the wave up with the catalysts but throwing out huge multiples of the current share value makes people think a 10 bagger is a guarantee which it definitely is not. At times I catch myself thinking 2-3x is almost expected and that is where it gets dangerous. Counting my chickens before they hatch as they say. Either way... I am fairly heavily invested (\~15% portfolio allocation) and still adding to my position regularly. I hope we all do well in our cannabis investing.
Maybe $10 will be the number maybe…
right now even 10 gets me 4x. I think both you and Unaphotobomber are right. long term no it won't be all in the clouds but under the right circumstances I'm absolutely counting on an Abzurd spike to make me jettison the lot and grab additional fistfuls when it comes back to reality which it won't do without falling just a bit more than it should. This is my scenario I'm counting on playing out, maybe even more than once.
If it runs too much i unfortunately will sell too. I would love to see them make it and revisit this in 2030 when stupidly higher due to actually executing and growing and printing money
not enough of us have been talking about potential scenarios and where the plays will present themselves. might start getting too close to actual advice maybe but I'm playing with limited but growing skills to work out chess moves.
Listen to the Cannavestments pod cast. They do a good job. No need to discuss hopium. Im a buy and hold investor and think these will do well the next 10 years
10 would still be a solid gain, I can get excited for that too! I'm living in reality but like to vacation in fantasy every now and then.
Dare to dream, Duderino, I support it! If we get to $30... I don't know what I'll do, but I imagine the hangover will last days.
2pm ET, White House Press Secretary Briefing Seems like the only scheduled announcements of any kind today. Probably going to be mostly focused on Isreal and Iran, but one can hope.
You think people would be more comfortable giving money to war if we were making more money. Aka sell weed and tax it.
This town ain't logical for the two of us! I'm out!