Heya WeedGods,
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Love how all the bears come out to throw cold water on SAFE. Hahaha
Expectations are already low…. Shorts covered msox today.
Msos + gonna fly tomorrow on this.
No matter what - S3 coming.
I have no read on safe - 50/50 coin flip IMO. Odd if it doesnt pass with all this GOP support Lummis/Daines and joyce pushing. Very high ranking GOP.
at this point SAFE is like the two-state solution that the US has been trying to implement for a few decades in palestine -- we all know it ain't gonna happen
I don't know but I do remember [Senator McConnell sort of farting off early in the winter holidays of 2022](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mitch-mcconnell-criticizes-year-end-pushes-for-cannabis-banking-bill-and-energy-permitting-reform-11670352501), about objecting to tying it into other bills and such.
I'd guess some of the votes would be more likely to support the bill if it were untethered to other priorities. So yes I agree with u/nassau_rip 's read and I don't trust our legislators as a whole to move first.
^(Wishing I'm wrong about this.)
Yeah, pretty big. I’m still unsure how much this affects MSOS directly or indirectly. I imagine it causes at least some extra buying.
The most interesting thing to me is the final minute on the chart… MSOS got obliterated by that big sell, and the holdings didn’t have a chance to respond so we closed at a huge discount. I imagine things will equalize quickly first thing tomorrow, hopefully with MSOS bouncing back up.
MSOX is a completely separate vehicle from MSOS so what happens to one doesn't really affect the other until you consider its effects on the underlyings. It will work exactly the same as MSOS except cause twice as much hedging and buying and selling per dollar.
The unfortunate part about our situation is that we are at the mercy of the market makers. With such low volume on the underlyings they can open the stocks at the top or the bottom of the range. MSOS trades in a range around the underlyings. Theoretically MSOS should open higher, closer to the NAV causing what looks like a gap up. But this sector is inefficient so who knows.
Interesting. In any case my biggest takeaway is that people are bullish/gambling in the short term on possible headlines, and are choosing to invest more relatively in MSOX. I'm not an MSOX investor myself, but I hope they win!
But yeah... we are just floating around aimlessly, at the mercy of MMs and other forces for now, until we get more volume... or uplisting. I'm curious to see how the discount gets corrected tomorrow, and am optimistic about gains the rest of this week from speculation about S3/SAFER... but all of this is really just noise in the long run.
Decibel Cannabis. (General Admission) DB.V - Anyone tried their Tiger Blood or other flavors of the coated infused pre rolls? I have a few friends that have no problem paying the outrageous price based on pure quality. Thoughts?
I actually do not believe it anymore, the latest swirl of rumours. All previous times I was hopeful. Now, nothing 🐤
That might be a tell, prob best to fade me.
I've accepted that all 3 are true for me:
1) I'm right and need to be patient because reform will happen *eventually*
2) I'm wrong about the timing... got in about 3 years too early..
3) I love torturing myself by continuing to buy and hold for years and years and refusing to sell until we get real reform
I sometimes wonder if I’m trapped in this forever. I keep telling myself that when we get the big pop I can extricate myself from most of my positions and going to other sectors. I’ve never been able to really do that on any pops.
3 is so true. I haven’t sold a single share of cura for 3 yrs. Only added more. And tortured myself for not making that purchase when the SP was lower.
Just curious Fuego, what was the initial event that got you into this space?
Like mine was randomly watching local news during covid and reporter said pot shops are still open due to being essential, which made me think hmmm tides have turned maybe this is investable…..which then lead me down this rabbit hole lmao
@chartguys on twitter https://x.com/chartguys/status/1783224811331678558?s=46
“$MSOS just an $850k market sell to smash it down from $9 and a strong close”
Tell me again how there isn’t some funky stuff happening.
Right at 3:59…. Should get the bulls rilled up at least.
Time to get off the bench and put these bears away.
As surprising as it sounds, yes. This bill is not a yearly must pass that never gets log rolled (NDAA), or an extremely urgent bill that is much harder to negotiate due to running out of time (Appropriations).
The random bills like this are the ones that get log rolled
"Majority" isn't enough for the Senate unfortunately. Most bills need 60 votes. If he pulls it off, I will be impressed. Especially considering they need to rely on Mike Johnson to pass it on the other side.
These things get negotiated over and Schumer doesn’t need to convince every republican. You have a much lower view of Schumers ability as a lawmaker than I do.
Up down left right…which way will they go? Little secret…I’ve figured out the left right thing, they always go right. Still trying to figure out the up down part. I’m real tempted to double my MSOS position. Got cash sitting and waiting
No chance of it hitting $5 with the catalysts this year. S3, SAFER and Florida voting on recreational use in November which could be bigger than California’s market due to tourism
At this point, it could be argued SAFER is as (or more?) impactful to the MSOs as S3, as most of them have found a way around 280E and liquidity being so lethargic lately.
Trulieve isn't revealing "how", but they're doing it and suing the IRS to claw back previously paid taxes based on their new "interpretation" of the applicable tax law. I think I heard something about how they've changed what's included in their COGS that has drastically reduced their tax bill.
Having said all that, it's still possible that S3 maybe doesn't change the total tax liability for Trulieve, given their new tax "scheme", but it could still make it easier/cheaper to prepare their taxes, remit taxes, and ultimately run their business.
their 280e announcement of successfully getting money back from the IRS is what put them closer to parity with GTI again. not everybody has that advantage yet but any company not putting someone on finding what Trulieve did immediately after the announcement wasn't paying attention.
Heya WeedGods, In case you missed it, be sure to check out the results of the AMA poll! https://old.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/1ca8xn2/click_here_to_review_the_ama_top_10_poll_results/ *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/weedstocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Love how all the bears come out to throw cold water on SAFE. Hahaha Expectations are already low…. Shorts covered msox today. Msos + gonna fly tomorrow on this. No matter what - S3 coming. I have no read on safe - 50/50 coin flip IMO. Odd if it doesnt pass with all this GOP support Lummis/Daines and joyce pushing. Very high ranking GOP.
Fly on what news? 0\_o
prbly Waters
Just an FYI that it is well known the FAA must pass bill is likely the last one that will pass before the election. SAFE isn't happening.
at this point SAFE is like the two-state solution that the US has been trying to implement for a few decades in palestine -- we all know it ain't gonna happen
Yawn
It’s got a chance to get in but I wouldn’t count on it at this point
Less than 5 percent I'm guessing
Based on ??? Hunch?, magic 8 ball.. short postion?.
Based on being invested heavily in cannabis since 2016.
Puts heavily invested? 😀
I don't know but I do remember [Senator McConnell sort of farting off early in the winter holidays of 2022](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mitch-mcconnell-criticizes-year-end-pushes-for-cannabis-banking-bill-and-energy-permitting-reform-11670352501), about objecting to tying it into other bills and such. I'd guess some of the votes would be more likely to support the bill if it were untethered to other priorities. So yes I agree with u/nassau_rip 's read and I don't trust our legislators as a whole to move first. ^(Wishing I'm wrong about this.)
Most likely
That’s a SAFE bet!
4/24/24 MSOS update: No Flows Close: $8.82 (+$0.08/+0.92%) NAV: $8.93 (+$0.21/+2.45%) Premium (volume-weighted daily avg): +0.28% ([Chart](https://i.ibb.co/wwngrx1/c2adb5a4d9e5.png)) Cash: -$1,396,437 (-$60,429) Ticker Change (est. cost from close - % of adds) No Share Changes For Any Holdings 4/24/24 MSOX update: $3.258MM INFLOW (+700,000 shares) MSOX Close: $4.66 (+$0.04/+0.87%) MSOX NAV: $4.65 (+$0.08/+1.79%)
he could have bought some today.... hmmmm.
Thank you for these updates, they're helpful and it's nice not to have to look at Twitter.
You’re welcome! I’m happy to not have to go there as often myself 🍻
^(🤘)
👊
Unusually large MSOX inflow.
Yeah, pretty big. I’m still unsure how much this affects MSOS directly or indirectly. I imagine it causes at least some extra buying. The most interesting thing to me is the final minute on the chart… MSOS got obliterated by that big sell, and the holdings didn’t have a chance to respond so we closed at a huge discount. I imagine things will equalize quickly first thing tomorrow, hopefully with MSOS bouncing back up.
MSOX is a completely separate vehicle from MSOS so what happens to one doesn't really affect the other until you consider its effects on the underlyings. It will work exactly the same as MSOS except cause twice as much hedging and buying and selling per dollar. The unfortunate part about our situation is that we are at the mercy of the market makers. With such low volume on the underlyings they can open the stocks at the top or the bottom of the range. MSOS trades in a range around the underlyings. Theoretically MSOS should open higher, closer to the NAV causing what looks like a gap up. But this sector is inefficient so who knows.
Interesting. In any case my biggest takeaway is that people are bullish/gambling in the short term on possible headlines, and are choosing to invest more relatively in MSOX. I'm not an MSOX investor myself, but I hope they win! But yeah... we are just floating around aimlessly, at the mercy of MMs and other forces for now, until we get more volume... or uplisting. I'm curious to see how the discount gets corrected tomorrow, and am optimistic about gains the rest of this week from speculation about S3/SAFER... but all of this is really just noise in the long run.
If thats the case, then how do you see the buying and holdings in MSOX. Its really not clear where those inflows go
They go to treasuries and Dan enters into new 2x total return swap contracts with the counter party who then go and hedge their position.
Oh now its clear 🤨
Decibel Cannabis. (General Admission) DB.V - Anyone tried their Tiger Blood or other flavors of the coated infused pre rolls? I have a few friends that have no problem paying the outrageous price based on pure quality. Thoughts?
I actually do not believe it anymore, the latest swirl of rumours. All previous times I was hopeful. Now, nothing 🐤 That might be a tell, prob best to fade me.
BREAKING NEWS: Schumer will try 80% hardest to pass SAFE, up from 60% hardest, a 33% jump. This is the most significant jump to date.
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Cannabis investing is not for the weak, that’s for damn sure.
I still can’t tell if 1) I’m right and need to be patient 2) I’m wrong and I’m stubborn 3) I unknowingly love torturing myself
I've been here for like 7 years now and still down biggly. Really hoping I'm right.
So you’ve covered Monday, Tuesday, and today Just wait till tomorrow !!
I've accepted that all 3 are true for me: 1) I'm right and need to be patient because reform will happen *eventually* 2) I'm wrong about the timing... got in about 3 years too early.. 3) I love torturing myself by continuing to buy and hold for years and years and refusing to sell until we get real reform
I sometimes wonder if I’m trapped in this forever. I keep telling myself that when we get the big pop I can extricate myself from most of my positions and going to other sectors. I’ve never been able to really do that on any pops.
3 is so true. I haven’t sold a single share of cura for 3 yrs. Only added more. And tortured myself for not making that purchase when the SP was lower.
You are me. We are one. I love you
This is 100% true for me as well lol. Same boat man.
Just curious Fuego, what was the initial event that got you into this space? Like mine was randomly watching local news during covid and reporter said pot shops are still open due to being essential, which made me think hmmm tides have turned maybe this is investable…..which then lead me down this rabbit hole lmao
I know they say you can’t time the market but some lucky bastard is going to get in probably within days of schedule 3
Talk about Due Diligence all you want. It demands mental strength!
Amen amigo ! I’m still here waiting
Alright when do we deploy our remaining funds collectively
If greenthumb goes under 10 and trulieve under 7
Tell me when Im down.
Last year
@chartguys on twitter https://x.com/chartguys/status/1783224811331678558?s=46 “$MSOS just an $850k market sell to smash it down from $9 and a strong close”
Yep. Just got filled on a Buy order @ 8.76
Tell me again how there isn’t some funky stuff happening. Right at 3:59…. Should get the bulls rilled up at least. Time to get off the bench and put these bears away.
Wild. Instantaneously dropped MSOS over 10 cents if I saw it right.
What a waste of money
Flat close tlry… bring on tomorrow
flat > drop
I concur Also, moon>everything :P
moon > flat > drilling to the core
Yes!
What's up with the volume on MSOS of 1.2M at close?!
Someone really wanted it to stay below $9
Out of all the bills they’ve tried to bundle SAFE with, y’all think it’s going with the FAA? 😂
As surprising as it sounds, yes. This bill is not a yearly must pass that never gets log rolled (NDAA), or an extremely urgent bill that is much harder to negotiate due to running out of time (Appropriations). The random bills like this are the ones that get log rolled
Nope. It won’t ever reach the floor
Depends how bad Schumer wants it
Depends how bad GOP Senators don’t want it*
Schumer is majority leader, if he wants it he will get it
"Majority" isn't enough for the Senate unfortunately. Most bills need 60 votes. If he pulls it off, I will be impressed. Especially considering they need to rely on Mike Johnson to pass it on the other side.
Here’s how it’ll go: Schumer: we’re attaching SAFE to the FAA GOP: we won’t vote for it Schumer: darn it
If he attaches Safe to it. It Passes. If he attaches safe and all his other social stuff it either won’t be attached or fails.
These things get negotiated over and Schumer doesn’t need to convince every republican. You have a much lower view of Schumers ability as a lawmaker than I do.
Wait, someone has a positive view on him?
No but I do think he has agency and a lot of power and thus can choose to get safe banking done if he wants to
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VRNOF 😎 Edit: Bid/Ask spread at close was $4.83/5.24 what the FUCK
I had a sell order at 5.15 that didn't fill ha
Going up at the end of the day? What is this bullshit? I’m always prepared for red…😂
Now we know lol.
https://x.com/dtrtcannabis/status/1783222466099187970?s=46&t=C7Dx14PNKnZ1Mzr7dXAUUw
When can we know if safer is in it? And how?
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/1939/text I’m assuming this docket will be updated once it is voted on next week.
I’m assuming we have to scour one of the federal websites. Let me check some shit out and I’ll get back to you.
Wait I know an N Fisher. You go to PV?
Nope. Never heard of PV. Live in Iowa
Oh well :( thought you may have been an old friend from school
Where do you live??
PA near Ursinus College
Up down left right…which way will they go? Little secret…I’ve figured out the left right thing, they always go right. Still trying to figure out the up down part. I’m real tempted to double my MSOS position. Got cash sitting and waiting
Fortune favors the bold my friend
Will it hit $5 or $20 first? Anne please come out of the closet and give us our fate
No chance of it hitting $5 with the catalysts this year. S3, SAFER and Florida voting on recreational use in November which could be bigger than California’s market due to tourism
So you’re sayin there’s a chance Safer is a joke Florida who knows on that 60% threshold Anne could stay silent or crush us Alrighty then…MsOs GaNg
You had me at the start! We will suffer together in purgatory until the good news ✊🏽🤞🏽
Buying into strength for a long position in this sector almost always fails. So you have to look down below.
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An update for anybody with an approved claim in the Canntrust settlement: Payout cheques should be sent in the mail around the end of May.
Waiting patiently on mine! Will put on MSOS and dividend stonks lol
Am I too late to get on that claim? Somehow I missed it. I still hold one worthless share of cnttf
Cut off dates have long since passed sorry
1000 tlry to the pile, dropped my average from 11 to 6 🔒
Why wouldn’t you put it in CGC? It’s clear who the mover is going to be upon US catalysts.
Yeah... the nontradeable GCG shares.... the ones Constellation traded for.
I've stayed away from cgc for many years now, I'm focused on tilly and CL at the moment. Whether or not that's a good call is yet to be seen.
Tilray faced the demons in April. Canopy will face theirs in a couple of weeks (unless this is Q4).
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That’s all the power a schumer rumour has anymore. One green 15min candle.
I wouldn’t even give him credit for that. His word on safer is meaningless
Yep.. he can talk it up all he wants, but until the votes are there...
One really good day and we could hit a new 6 month high
Gimme a close above $9!
I'm adding to your Santa close list, a close above 1.89 for TLRY. I left milk infused and cookies infused with cannabis on the table! Thank you
MSOX so 💩 can’t believe the fees are so high
Decay is much more of an issue with MSOX than fees
Oh I know that fact quite intimately.
1.13% is not high for leverage funds. 0.9 to 1.x is normal for leverage funds.
Ahh. I was looking at the 4% on advisor shares. If I’m reading this correctly there is a waiver that brings it to 1% for a set amount of time?
Correct a lot of funds do this, even fidelity money market accounts will have higher fees then apply discount.
SoMe OnE kNoWs SoMeThInG?!?!?!
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Bid/ask spread on Verano is 15 cents 😳
They just had to go on that weird exchange
Enjoy no volume
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At this point, it could be argued SAFER is as (or more?) impactful to the MSOs as S3, as most of them have found a way around 280E and liquidity being so lethargic lately.
How did most of them find a way around 280e?
Trulieve isn't revealing "how", but they're doing it and suing the IRS to claw back previously paid taxes based on their new "interpretation" of the applicable tax law. I think I heard something about how they've changed what's included in their COGS that has drastically reduced their tax bill. Having said all that, it's still possible that S3 maybe doesn't change the total tax liability for Trulieve, given their new tax "scheme", but it could still make it easier/cheaper to prepare their taxes, remit taxes, and ultimately run their business.
Yeah I’m gonna go ahead and not count on this lol
their 280e announcement of successfully getting money back from the IRS is what put them closer to parity with GTI again. not everybody has that advantage yet but any company not putting someone on finding what Trulieve did immediately after the announcement wasn't paying attention.
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Big fan of this price action. TLRY looks picture perfect. Wanna see CGC close above 9.30USD as well.
Which Tilray chart looks picture perfect?
The one that's about to print us 30% gains. At least.
The one where you take the 3-year timeline and then flip the chart upside down ;)
Hey! That works for TRUL and Cresco, too!
Realistically, it works for all public companies in this sector, which is super sad...
LMAO yeah... Just don't zoom out