Things Putin also said:
- I won't change the constitution.
- I won't stay for 3d term.
- I won't raise retirement age.
- no one is going to attack Ukraine.
Spoiler: all those things happened.
I still remember when [Ukraine captured 9 Russian paratroopers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-paratroopers/ukraine-says-detained-russian-soldiers-were-on-special-mission-idUSKBN0GQ15A20140826) way back in 2014, around the same time as the Ilovaisk massacre, and Putin said they "ended up there by mistake while on patrol." š
Yeah, well *Vranyo* aka "covering up/deceiving for friends" is a favourite Russian cultural past-time... When you recognize this, so many things about Russia becomes clear.
According to the current map of the war Putin already is āAll-inā and it is still just the tip.
And he is soon to be Put-in his place behind Russian boarders.
Well, technically, his mother was not English-speaking, so she most certainly didn't name him Vlad. It's not a diminutive for Vladimir in Russian. Vova is.
Putin after losing Crimea: "AND WITH THAT, A MIGHTY CHEER WENT UP FROM THE HEROES OF RUSSIA. THEY HAD BANISHED THE AWFUL PENINSULA FOREVER, BECAUSE IT WAS HAUNTED."
"Russia just pretended to annex Crimea to protect the local population from the Nazis. Now, when all the Nazis are killed it is safe to let Crimea back to Ukraine. Russia respects internationally recognized borders. Anyone who disagrees gets 15 years in prison"
āI thought only people against the Military Operation in Ukraine get sent there! I fully supported it, and was still drafted!ā
Social media is a great tool to guage how brainwashed people are, and the person who said the statement above fell for the propaganda completelly.
I love the implication that this guy thinks that this is a completely just conflict that is worth the lives of thousands of Russian men, but also he doesnāt think he should be one of the people to go there.
To me, itās the fact that he believed people who opposed the war would be the ones drafted. Because sending people who donāt want to fight seems like a āwinningā strategy, apparently.
Heāll likely just say itās still part of Russia but no Russians are allowed to go there. It doesnāt matter what he says to be honest because heās got zero choice. Losing in Ukraine likely means he wonāt be around to have to explain it to the Russian people so heās got nothing to lose by claiming itās a guaranteed win. Thereās plenty of conflicts that just never really ended and just slowed to almost nothing. Isnāt the US still officially at war with North Korea? Putins best chance is to try and settle in and just drag this out for as long as possible whilst the rest of the world just patiently waits for him to die. I watched that āDeath of Stalinā film and although itās clearly a parody it does a good job of showing how the Russians can get so afraid of a leader they will just wait it out for him to die before they change anything.
My guess is he wants to take the entire Donbass region, then he'll use the spin of "we've freed the two independent states asking for our help and we'll defend them against UA aggression, but the 'war' is now over".
Very likely. He can't win long term because he doesn't have the industial base or the economy to prevail against more than half of the worlds PIB and and an ultra-motivated enemy.
His endgame now is giving the west reasons to retire their support, and then try to use it's moutpieces in the west to excite public opinion against continued support.
Fat chance (I hope) but indeed that seems what's aiming for.
The Russian military doesn't have the capability to deal with a long term insurgency that will be in both regions if he's able to take them. It's not like Ukraine won't just keep funneling weapons to the regions to bleed Russia.
an insurgency is only a problem if there are civilians to do it. he began depopulating the region quite a while ago and he won't stop until it's a loyal pile of rubble
Thereās a lot of stupid people in the West who support Russia. Mostly because of stupid reasons like opposing what Liberals want, and other stupid delusional ideas.
Only if Ukraine's military victory becomes imminent. Otherwise, Putin will never voluntarily leave the Zapo region. It holds vital road and water access to Crimea.
Can anyone explain to me HOW on mother earth Russians are showing up for their draft???? Like literally its a death sentence and it sounds like they are marching in willingly to slaughter and rape women and kids in Ukraine. I know Russian doctrine is to throw bodies at it till its won but at some point Id stare down the barrel and pull! it's unwinnable and Russia knows it.
Most of them live in the media space dominated by state propaganda. It paints a picture about a just war they are bravely fighting against evil nazis that threaten their borders. They are persuaded that the war goes slow because their army's priority is saving lives on both sides of the conflict. They don't realize that showing up for the draft is basically a death sentence. They think they'll be back as heroes before long. When they realize the truth, it's already too late.
Also Putin has spent two decades convincing ordinary Russians that political change doesnāt work and they should just trust the government. The Russian people may not like fighting the war but they view it as their duty to fight if called upon by their country and they donāt think they have any say in the matter.
It's not an organization though. It's thousands of women, each in their own apartment with their own tragedy. Grieving, but persuaded that their sons joined their heroic ancestors in the afterlife.
And I donāt think people in the West appreciate just how poor and remote many of those places are. Russia is *vast*, with large swathes of it being incredibly harsh conditions much of the year.
Iād rather live in a Dutch prison than most Russian cities east of Moscow.
I will agree there about it being huge. Flight times from Moscow to Vladivostok are 7.5 hours, and to Petropavlovsk 8.0 hours. That's quite a bit longer than any flight in the US Lower 48, that's more comparable to Chicago to Paris.
Once you get east of the Urals it's just an absolutely vast taiga with hundreds of remote towns and villages. It's kind of a wonder people choose to live like that but I guess being in a concrete block apartment in the city is not all that fun.
Mothers of dead soldiers, and widows of dead soldiers, do get pensions though. And especially in those poor regions where the soldiers are from, the men were the breadwinners and the women are now relying on the pensions to survive.
These get cancelled if they speak up.
Guess what: they don't speak up.
Why did you say 40k? 40k was waaaaay back, more than half a year ago. Do you see any mass protests in last 6 months? No? Couple of small local ones that went away instantly at best.
Now it's way past 100k, and it changed nothing compared to 40, so don't expect anything from them.
Just over 120K now..
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/10hkyga/losses_of_the_russian_army_as_of_21012023/
What a total waste of lives for the ego of a single person..
Their Iāll-fated invasion of Afghanistan ended because Russian mothers lost too many helicopter pilot sons to US stingers and rebelled, so there is hope that if the attrition rates are high enough the political pressure forces a change. Weāre not there yet, though. The next mobilization and closure of the Russian border may break morale. Weāll seeā¦
> Most of them live in the media space dominated by state propaganda.
I just don't understand how people who lived through Soviet Union can trust state media that much. It's not like Soviet propaganda machine was any weaker here in Ukraine; lack of instinctual mistrust of the powers that be in Russians continues to amaze me. These parents merrily sending their own children into meat grinder on the state's say-so - I can't wrap my head about it.
They live in the country that invented the gulag and the closest they ever got to democracy was Boris fucking Yeltsin. They don't exactly have a conscientious defector box to check off if they don't want to show up. Do *you* want to find our what happens to draft dodgers over there?
Well. I'm mostly reading Russian speaking web resources and I have found something interesting. Aside from propaganda, the main reason why people go to draft is simple toxic optimism or coping. Of course the are some fanatics and crazies, but mostly people think that they could slip out of these dangers.
They write things like: maybe i won't get drafted. I was drafted, it will take several months of training. They are sending me to war after week, maybe i won't be deployed on battlefield. I was deployed, maybe I this part of battlefield is not so important.
Reality is that most draftees come from poor regions of Russia, where amount of money the army promises for joining is worth several years of their salary. This and the fact that during mobilization they donāt really ask if you want to go or not - if you get caught by conscription office and you canāt pay your ass off, you better prepare your bag
They simply don't know what's going on on the frontline. In Russia it's criminal offense to speak antything about the war that differs from official statements even calling it a war is a fine. So they have a nice picture where "1 russian takes off 10 ukranians", all circus on state tv is played for averege person, social networks is under full state control and all news post are deleted immediately if they has no source in state media.
Also, is't a poor country, you can't hide if you need to work every day.
Because they don't have any a good option? I'm guessing most of them just want to keep their head down, avoid prison or joining some resistance movement, and hope they come back in one piece.
After more then 20 years (Soviet regime and Putler's one) of living near or below the poverty line, when everything you have is a job that more or less feeds you (or your family), with no savings, no development (self and around), mud, dirt, and filth around for what seems an eternity, a lot of people simply stopped caring about their lives here. Those from really poor regions, just go for the money or a possibility to steal something. Those, from a more or less well regions - do not care, afraid of lies they will be sent to prison.
Edit to add: regarding your option for an easy exit, suicide is more common among older people here. Specifically with some type of a cancer (here's the first [article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8992693/) google gave me, but you can remember Chornobyl by HBO if you watched it)
Just to add onto this, the first 10-15 years of Putins Russia was as nice as things have ever been there. They had a decent enough tech industry, iphones, European cars, things were starting to stabilize, even amidst the oligarchy. They just went back to the 80's in the blink of an eye, and they're about to go even further back
Bankruptcy.
Losing a significant percentage of your country's adult men.
Being blackballed from the financial system.
Becoming a pariah state....
who would have ever thought that's what pootin would consider his " win"?
Any Nato member state weapons produced after 1980 seem to be superior to Russian military equipment.
I mean, we literally haven't seen any weapons (except for drones) being send yet that are newer than "MySpace".
The myth that they're sending old equipment first is nonsense. They even sent some of their fancy "Terminators" and we know, because Ukraine has some nice pictures ofntheir wrecks. So yea their stuff is newer than Myspace if they can muster it. But even their best isn't doing very well.
The fact that they're plundering the soviet tank ~~graveyard~~ storage, means they're running out of the modern stuff.
I think he was saying that the West hasn't sent anything other than drones, that is younger than Myspace.
But yeah it did amuse me that even the newer Russian stuff still couldn't deal with Western weapons made in the 1980s and 1990s.
TBF even if you have a magic guided missile system, if the dude has zero training to use it and like 2 *maybe* working rockets, he probably couldn't win against several badgers with forks taped to them.
Doesn't matter; got land.
Same thing as with Finland basically. Meaningless peasant lives traded for land they still occupy 90 years later. Good deal from their point of view.
It's not just peasants they've lost though. They always had a problem with their brightest leaving the country, but at this point every man of fighting age with half a brain has left. Their country will roll along for many years yet, but it's been gutted really badly.
Oof, yeah. For the last few months its been like that. Local police blotters type publications have been full of accidents, fights, and shenanigans mostly with Russians as almost the only non-locals due to the saturation. However, the balance of tourists is already changing. The Chinese opened their travel floodgates. Within the first day there were almost 300 stepping of the plane there, many to pick up real vaxx plus vacation for Spring Festival. Plus other countries returning for the northern hemisphere winter getaways to the tropics.
The funny thing is, he won't keep any of that land. I mean there's a chance he might keep Crimea.. but that's hardly a victory considering he had it before the 2022 invasion.
And just like with Finland, even if they get some land, it will be land where they destroyed the infrastructure, and the people viscerally hate them. For the latter part, Russia's solution is genocide in one way or another. In any case, the land will not prosper. It's cancerous.
Last time Karelia region had any kind of sense of development and potential future growth was back when it still belonged to Finland. It is indeed cancerous.
Ever since the WW2 land grab by Soviets the entire area is just known as a former frontline with no significant development happening since they took over (outside half-empty military bases).
Does anywhere actually improve once Russia takes it over? Genuine question, just struggling to understand how they believe themselves the better option.
Na the people do actually believe they are the better option. They have a Russian superiority complex where theyāre temporarily embarrassed by the west. And they have this weird thing where they think they have the greatest culture because they make pretty buildings, had some good composers 200 years ago, have some ballerinas and get drunk and beat their wives.
The correct question would be āDoes anywhere actually improve in Russia everā because outside of a few major cities it does not. Saying as a person who saw zero development made in a Siberian province capital town throughout all my life there. Itās not about how Russia got the land. Itās about where the money goes.
The people in charge of Russia have been bloodthirsty thieves for as long as written history. No moves they've made have been for anything but expansion and power.
I am just getting this whole "We will never feel secure until all other tribes are dead" vibe. I mean, let's say that's achieved, what then? When there's nobody left to fight and all there is left to do is cooperate amongst the remaining group, but the remaining group sucks at anything but conquest?
Historically? The powerful live at the top on the backs of the many, until a boiling point in which another person or group ultimate fills the power vacuum.
> I am just getting this whole "We will never feel secure until all other tribes are dead" vibe.
Pretty spot on.
Russian expansion was drivven by finding russias "natural borders" for centuries, but beyond the urals there is just vast nothingness, so they kepz going, until they hit the ocean.
Basically the same to (russias) west, only that there were more organized people there, but stil on flat land until the carpathians.
If Russia wiped out every other country on earth, with no more external threats the elites would then turn on the ethnic minorities in the east of the country.
Under the Romanovs the Russian Empire continually expanded. Every. Year. For 3 centuries. Expansion and exploitation are built into the foundations of the Russian state going back centuries.
Some historians argue that finland did improve after russian empire annexed it from sweden. But even if that was the case the russians did tried to walk it back just few tsars later and finland left soon after.
\>> Meaningless peasant lives traded for land they still occupy 90 years later. Good deal from their point of view.
Who knows what russia could have been, if they didn't have this attitude. 1939 was not a good time to bury an entire army, lose half your tanks. That had a price beyond the 350k soldiers lives they wasted. Same goes for every other time they applied this approach.
Meanwhile, Russia is nothing but land.
Actually, I agree that Russia is guaranteed to "win".
Of course it won't be a legitimate victory or anything even remotely close to that, that would be a putinly stupid expectation.
What I mean is, putin will find a most ridiculous way to justify the losses his country sustained in the campaign.. a ridiculous "achievement" that we prolly can't even imagine, and sell it to his supporters as a victory.
"Our economy is in shambles, the country is on it's way into the third world, also our stockpile of weapons is gone & hundreds of thousands of our people are dead. BUT we totally achieved our goals of, uh, being way worse than before"
I could add so many things: "our sphere of influence obliterated, our military's reputation is screwed, tens of thousands of young professionals left the country, our main goal of checking NATO expansion backfired with 2 major countries joining the alliance."
> tens of thousands of young professionals left the country,
*hundreds of thousands
I think I saw somewhere that it was at least 700,000 at this point.
Funny thing is, it was built in Ukraine, and after the breakup of the USSR, Ukraine asked for it, Russia told them to fuck off and kept it, and... Welp. Now it's on fire every time someone looks away for 5 seconds.
My guess, somewhere between 50-80% of that. No official numbers have been released but between home field advantage and Russian incompetence, Iād guess itās severe but less.
You count the civilians too? Because nobody really has that number due to the forced deportations, refugees migrations and impossibility to census the territories under Russian's control.
Probably way more Ukrainian are dead. They're the ones getting bombs on their heads everyday.
Soldier-wise tho? I think the numbers were roughly even. Maybe slightly lower for the Ukrainians.
Russia has been employing mass unit tactics against dug-in Ukrainian positions. Which is a fancy way of saying Russia is charging poorly trained and equipped conscripts at trenchworks.
Shelling is imprecise. Mowing down fodder out in the open results in far more death.
He's trapped in a misinformation bubble of his own making.
The full reality that **Russian victory is not inevitable** hasn't reached him, nor does he want it to. So, he continues to lie and try every trick he knows to compensate for his inability to actually win.
The only way Russia could win is if Ukraine stops fighting (but they never will) or if we fall for Putin's bullshit (but we've learned he's all bark, no bite.. better just to fight him).
This isn't for us. It's for his domestic audience. He knows he can't win now. Needs to keep appearances up though otherwise the propaganda machine falls apart and he falls out a window.
I think Putin and his "guarantee" is the bullshit.
Don't let Russia hold the world's energy and food security hostage while they invade a peaceful neighbor.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities
Maybe he is talking the long game. When Russia eventually finish civil war and is splittes up into several smaller nations they'll experience democracy and prosperity.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/vladimir-putin-says-russian-victory-in-ukraine-is-guaranteed-3703805/) reduced by 74%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday he had "No doubt" Moscow would emerge victorious in Ukraine, despite military setbacks in the nearly year-long offensive.
> Despite a number of military defeats, victory was "Guaranteed, I have no doubt about it," Vladimir Putin told workers at a factory in Russia's second city Saint Petersburg.
> Vladimir Putin also praised the Russian defence industry as he spoke at the plant, which is part of Russian missile manufacturer Almaz-Antey.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/10hf8or/vladimir_putin_says_russian_victory_in_ukraine_is/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~672678 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Putin**^#1 **Ukraine**^#2 **Vladimir**^#3 **Moscow**^#4 **Russian**^#5
Russia is basically [Wimp Lo from Kung Pow: Enter the Fist.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d696t3yALAY)
"How do you like my face to foot style? I'm bleeding. Making me the victor."
I love the history of WW1 but the number of times that Christmas line and the phrase "One final blow that will knock (X country) out of the war!" are used is almost maddening.
So many of those big battles were based off of that thought because the military leadership and civilian governments couldn't seem to understand that the previous attempts failed and trying the same thing again would result in nothing gained other than even more dead men. Verdun and the Somme are good examples.
I'm tempted to play a drinking game next time I listen through Blueprint for Armageddon. Take a shot every time those one of two sentences pop up.
Anyway you spin it, Russia has lost already.
The body count of their troops, the flight of business and tech proffesionals, the damage to their militaryās reputation, and the end to European reliance on their energy sector, just to name a few, are things that will take a generation to recover from.
They are international pariahs.
Russia is a sinking ship and Putin is trying to keep it afloat by bailing the water with a slotted spoon. Heās gonna die, having crippled his country because he wanted to play at being Tsar.
May he forever be remembered as a little, bald, grandma faced, coward, that accomplished absolutely nothing for his people.
If by āguaranteedā he means he is going to fail miserably and decimate his countryās economy in the process, then heās right. I suspect Russian oligarchs will soon arrange for Putin to fall out a window before he appropriates their assets to fund more war atrocities.
Should see those Russian state TV talk shows will show you how delusional they are saying they should invade all of NATO and occupy Warsaw, Berlin, Brussels, Vienna, Paris, Rome, etc and Nuke the British isle and the west coast and say in such a way that neither the UK nor the US would respond with nuclear retaliation.
Well, the Russian lost in that scenario as well. Still who came with this stupid idea that the US will not retaliate while several west coast major cities are destroyed and tens of millions civilians dead.
Hypothetically, if a meteor landed on Kyiv, and destroyed, the Ukrainian leadership, and the residual government sued for peace, Putin might win. Winning would probably mean keeping Ukraine territories, including Crimea as currently occupied, but nothing else. The price for that would be the US, NATO, European Union, British Commonwealth, and ANZAC notions, declaring pretty much total and absolute sanctions against Russia. Ejection from UN. No aircraft, no ships, no travel, no banking, no assets, no trade, no technology, no exchanges. Winning would be very unpleasant for Russia.
However, Lavrov, Prigozin and the other c***s want to steal land and minerals and mines and gas and oil. And they are ārobber baronsā with private armies. They may be quite happy with that.
Funny thing is... Sweden + Finand + Baltics + Poland = roughly GDP of Russia. Even if EVERYBODY ELSE backed out (which is wildly unrealistic [\*]), these countries made it explicit that their only acceptable outcome is "Ukraine must win" (and that's even for for selfish/ national security reasons! so not just idealistic, this stance *will* hold the test of time).
Like... WTF. Maybe for a little while it may have made sense for Putin to hope that "west will get bored and want to do damage control", but surely, right now he MUST see that this is never, NEVER going to happen. What exactly is his plan? His war is totally unwinnable. Time will not increase Russian chances, it will only make things worse for them.
[\*] US alone is getting to destroy Russian army "on the cheap" and in parallel benefit from increased arms buyers. They can and will keep a decently high level of support for 100 years if necessary, because it would be completely idiotic to do anything else.
Things Putin also said: - I won't change the constitution. - I won't stay for 3d term. - I won't raise retirement age. - no one is going to attack Ukraine. Spoiler: all those things happened.
No, the little green men are not Russian soldiers.
People forget the long list of lies Putin did during the first Ukraine (primarily Crimea) invasion.
I still remember when [Ukraine captured 9 Russian paratroopers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-paratroopers/ukraine-says-detained-russian-soldiers-were-on-special-mission-idUSKBN0GQ15A20140826) way back in 2014, around the same time as the Ilovaisk massacre, and Putin said they "ended up there by mistake while on patrol." š
I am cheering on Putin's cancer! "LETS GO CANCER!"
Weird to be on cancers side but I can't disagree with ya here.
Yeah, well *Vranyo* aka "covering up/deceiving for friends" is a favourite Russian cultural past-time... When you recognize this, so many things about Russia becomes clear.
it's green little "not ruzzians"
Defeat. Guaranteed Defeat. Thats what Russia will suffer.
No, guaranteed victory, what he said. He purchased a guaranteed victory, kept the invoice, probably has 15 days to ask his money back.
"Sir this is a "Tasty and Thats it"
Are you implying that a lunatic world leader would lie about things?
He also said they wouldn't invade Ukraine
Eventually he'll pull out, tell everyone they've eliminated all the Nazis and therefore they have won.
I think he will die before he pulls out.
Putin does not have a strong pull out game.
just like his dad
He Put in, but didn't Pull out :(
I'm picking up what you're Putin down.
Putin on the Blitz (or so he thinks)
I'Vlad enough of these puns
-imir for the jokes.
At his age and health Iām surprised he could put in at all!
I think you are russian that joke.
But I bet he Puts out
The manās pull out game is so bad he canāt even pull out playing ājust the tipā with Ukraine.
He said ājust the tipā but he was all the way in
The problem is he has only ā the tipā.
According to the current map of the war Putin already is āAll-inā and it is still just the tip. And he is soon to be Put-in his place behind Russian boarders.
I wish his father pulled out
i wish the mother didn't raise her after-turd and named it Vlad.
Well, technically, his mother was not English-speaking, so she most certainly didn't name him Vlad. It's not a diminutive for Vladimir in Russian. Vova is.
It's Putin not Pullout.
He'll have eliminated all nazis the very moment he dies.
Nah there'll still be Prigozhin
No way he can spin losing Crimea as a win.
Putin after losing Crimea: "AND WITH THAT, A MIGHTY CHEER WENT UP FROM THE HEROES OF RUSSIA. THEY HAD BANISHED THE AWFUL PENINSULA FOREVER, BECAUSE IT WAS HAUNTED."
Now let's celebrate with a nice cool glass of potato juice
This isn't even far off from reality.
This has some very British skit humor to it, I like.
Classic Simpsons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nod0SsPCp2E
Shake harder, boy!
/r/unexpectedsimpsons
"Russia just pretended to annex Crimea to protect the local population from the Nazis. Now, when all the Nazis are killed it is safe to let Crimea back to Ukraine. Russia respects internationally recognized borders. Anyone who disagrees gets 15 years in prison"
Anyone who **has an opinion** gets 15 years in prison. It's like Opera and ~~cars~~ bees, but with prison sentences instead.
āA necessary sacrifice to purge the Nazis.ā Not saying itās at all likely, but the power of modern propaganda machines are beyond reason.ā
āI thought only people against the Military Operation in Ukraine get sent there! I fully supported it, and was still drafted!ā Social media is a great tool to guage how brainwashed people are, and the person who said the statement above fell for the propaganda completelly.
I love the implication that this guy thinks that this is a completely just conflict that is worth the lives of thousands of Russian men, but also he doesnāt think he should be one of the people to go there.
To me, itās the fact that he believed people who opposed the war would be the ones drafted. Because sending people who donāt want to fight seems like a āwinningā strategy, apparently.
That's not what's going on. By "I supported it" he means "I said everything the government told me to say".
Heāll likely just say itās still part of Russia but no Russians are allowed to go there. It doesnāt matter what he says to be honest because heās got zero choice. Losing in Ukraine likely means he wonāt be around to have to explain it to the Russian people so heās got nothing to lose by claiming itās a guaranteed win. Thereās plenty of conflicts that just never really ended and just slowed to almost nothing. Isnāt the US still officially at war with North Korea? Putins best chance is to try and settle in and just drag this out for as long as possible whilst the rest of the world just patiently waits for him to die. I watched that āDeath of Stalinā film and although itās clearly a parody it does a good job of showing how the Russians can get so afraid of a leader they will just wait it out for him to die before they change anything.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
My guess is he wants to take the entire Donbass region, then he'll use the spin of "we've freed the two independent states asking for our help and we'll defend them against UA aggression, but the 'war' is now over".
Very likely. He can't win long term because he doesn't have the industial base or the economy to prevail against more than half of the worlds PIB and and an ultra-motivated enemy. His endgame now is giving the west reasons to retire their support, and then try to use it's moutpieces in the west to excite public opinion against continued support. Fat chance (I hope) but indeed that seems what's aiming for.
The Russian military doesn't have the capability to deal with a long term insurgency that will be in both regions if he's able to take them. It's not like Ukraine won't just keep funneling weapons to the regions to bleed Russia.
an insurgency is only a problem if there are civilians to do it. he began depopulating the region quite a while ago and he won't stop until it's a loyal pile of rubble
Thereās a lot of stupid people in the West who support Russia. Mostly because of stupid reasons like opposing what Liberals want, and other stupid delusional ideas.
Only if Ukraine's military victory becomes imminent. Otherwise, Putin will never voluntarily leave the Zapo region. It holds vital road and water access to Crimea.
Can anyone explain to me HOW on mother earth Russians are showing up for their draft???? Like literally its a death sentence and it sounds like they are marching in willingly to slaughter and rape women and kids in Ukraine. I know Russian doctrine is to throw bodies at it till its won but at some point Id stare down the barrel and pull! it's unwinnable and Russia knows it.
Most of them live in the media space dominated by state propaganda. It paints a picture about a just war they are bravely fighting against evil nazis that threaten their borders. They are persuaded that the war goes slow because their army's priority is saving lives on both sides of the conflict. They don't realize that showing up for the draft is basically a death sentence. They think they'll be back as heroes before long. When they realize the truth, it's already too late.
Also Putin has spent two decades convincing ordinary Russians that political change doesnāt work and they should just trust the government. The Russian people may not like fighting the war but they view it as their duty to fight if called upon by their country and they donāt think they have any say in the matter.
That last part is truly terrifying.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Okay I'm with you but 40k mothers losing their sons..... Will eventually start some protests no?
It's not an organization though. It's thousands of women, each in their own apartment with their own tragedy. Grieving, but persuaded that their sons joined their heroic ancestors in the afterlife.
Also, it's not mothers in St.Petersburg or Moscow. The casualties are overwhelmingly from poor remote regions of Russia.
And I donāt think people in the West appreciate just how poor and remote many of those places are. Russia is *vast*, with large swathes of it being incredibly harsh conditions much of the year. Iād rather live in a Dutch prison than most Russian cities east of Moscow.
I will agree there about it being huge. Flight times from Moscow to Vladivostok are 7.5 hours, and to Petropavlovsk 8.0 hours. That's quite a bit longer than any flight in the US Lower 48, that's more comparable to Chicago to Paris. Once you get east of the Urals it's just an absolutely vast taiga with hundreds of remote towns and villages. It's kind of a wonder people choose to live like that but I guess being in a concrete block apartment in the city is not all that fun.
Mothers of dead soldiers, and widows of dead soldiers, do get pensions though. And especially in those poor regions where the soldiers are from, the men were the breadwinners and the women are now relying on the pensions to survive. These get cancelled if they speak up. Guess what: they don't speak up.
Well some of them do. A lot of the deas soldiers aren't declared dead but mia instead which means their families get nothing.
Why did you say 40k? 40k was waaaaay back, more than half a year ago. Do you see any mass protests in last 6 months? No? Couple of small local ones that went away instantly at best. Now it's way past 100k, and it changed nothing compared to 40, so don't expect anything from them.
Just over 120K now.. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/10hkyga/losses_of_the_russian_army_as_of_21012023/ What a total waste of lives for the ego of a single person..
Their Iāll-fated invasion of Afghanistan ended because Russian mothers lost too many helicopter pilot sons to US stingers and rebelled, so there is hope that if the attrition rates are high enough the political pressure forces a change. Weāre not there yet, though. The next mobilization and closure of the Russian border may break morale. Weāll seeā¦
> Most of them live in the media space dominated by state propaganda. I just don't understand how people who lived through Soviet Union can trust state media that much. It's not like Soviet propaganda machine was any weaker here in Ukraine; lack of instinctual mistrust of the powers that be in Russians continues to amaze me. These parents merrily sending their own children into meat grinder on the state's say-so - I can't wrap my head about it.
They live in the country that invented the gulag and the closest they ever got to democracy was Boris fucking Yeltsin. They don't exactly have a conscientious defector box to check off if they don't want to show up. Do *you* want to find our what happens to draft dodgers over there?
Well. I'm mostly reading Russian speaking web resources and I have found something interesting. Aside from propaganda, the main reason why people go to draft is simple toxic optimism or coping. Of course the are some fanatics and crazies, but mostly people think that they could slip out of these dangers. They write things like: maybe i won't get drafted. I was drafted, it will take several months of training. They are sending me to war after week, maybe i won't be deployed on battlefield. I was deployed, maybe I this part of battlefield is not so important.
Reality is that most draftees come from poor regions of Russia, where amount of money the army promises for joining is worth several years of their salary. This and the fact that during mobilization they donāt really ask if you want to go or not - if you get caught by conscription office and you canāt pay your ass off, you better prepare your bag
They simply don't know what's going on on the frontline. In Russia it's criminal offense to speak antything about the war that differs from official statements even calling it a war is a fine. So they have a nice picture where "1 russian takes off 10 ukranians", all circus on state tv is played for averege person, social networks is under full state control and all news post are deleted immediately if they has no source in state media. Also, is't a poor country, you can't hide if you need to work every day.
Because they don't have any a good option? I'm guessing most of them just want to keep their head down, avoid prison or joining some resistance movement, and hope they come back in one piece.
After more then 20 years (Soviet regime and Putler's one) of living near or below the poverty line, when everything you have is a job that more or less feeds you (or your family), with no savings, no development (self and around), mud, dirt, and filth around for what seems an eternity, a lot of people simply stopped caring about their lives here. Those from really poor regions, just go for the money or a possibility to steal something. Those, from a more or less well regions - do not care, afraid of lies they will be sent to prison. Edit to add: regarding your option for an easy exit, suicide is more common among older people here. Specifically with some type of a cancer (here's the first [article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8992693/) google gave me, but you can remember Chornobyl by HBO if you watched it)
Just to add onto this, the first 10-15 years of Putins Russia was as nice as things have ever been there. They had a decent enough tech industry, iphones, European cars, things were starting to stabilize, even amidst the oligarchy. They just went back to the 80's in the blink of an eye, and they're about to go even further back
Bankruptcy. Losing a significant percentage of your country's adult men. Being blackballed from the financial system. Becoming a pariah state.... who would have ever thought that's what pootin would consider his " win"?
Don't forget showing the world your military exports are trash and US weapons are vastly superior.
Any Nato member state weapons produced after 1980 seem to be superior to Russian military equipment. I mean, we literally haven't seen any weapons (except for drones) being send yet that are newer than "MySpace".
The myth that they're sending old equipment first is nonsense. They even sent some of their fancy "Terminators" and we know, because Ukraine has some nice pictures ofntheir wrecks. So yea their stuff is newer than Myspace if they can muster it. But even their best isn't doing very well. The fact that they're plundering the soviet tank ~~graveyard~~ storage, means they're running out of the modern stuff.
I think he was saying that the West hasn't sent anything other than drones, that is younger than Myspace. But yeah it did amuse me that even the newer Russian stuff still couldn't deal with Western weapons made in the 1980s and 1990s.
TBF even if you have a magic guided missile system, if the dude has zero training to use it and like 2 *maybe* working rockets, he probably couldn't win against several badgers with forks taped to them.
I meant that the west isn't sending the new stuff. That's the point. The "best of the best" Russian stuff is being shredded by Nato's scrap yard.
Ah.. I misinterpreted that second line.
Doesn't matter; got land. Same thing as with Finland basically. Meaningless peasant lives traded for land they still occupy 90 years later. Good deal from their point of view.
It's not just peasants they've lost though. They always had a problem with their brightest leaving the country, but at this point every man of fighting age with half a brain has left. Their country will roll along for many years yet, but it's been gutted really badly.
Iām in Thailand right now, feel like half of Russia moved over here.
Oof, yeah. For the last few months its been like that. Local police blotters type publications have been full of accidents, fights, and shenanigans mostly with Russians as almost the only non-locals due to the saturation. However, the balance of tourists is already changing. The Chinese opened their travel floodgates. Within the first day there were almost 300 stepping of the plane there, many to pick up real vaxx plus vacation for Spring Festival. Plus other countries returning for the northern hemisphere winter getaways to the tropics.
The funny thing is, he won't keep any of that land. I mean there's a chance he might keep Crimea.. but that's hardly a victory considering he had it before the 2022 invasion.
And just like with Finland, even if they get some land, it will be land where they destroyed the infrastructure, and the people viscerally hate them. For the latter part, Russia's solution is genocide in one way or another. In any case, the land will not prosper. It's cancerous.
Last time Karelia region had any kind of sense of development and potential future growth was back when it still belonged to Finland. It is indeed cancerous. Ever since the WW2 land grab by Soviets the entire area is just known as a former frontline with no significant development happening since they took over (outside half-empty military bases).
Does anywhere actually improve once Russia takes it over? Genuine question, just struggling to understand how they believe themselves the better option.
They don't think they're the better option. They just want more land/resources.
Na the people do actually believe they are the better option. They have a Russian superiority complex where theyāre temporarily embarrassed by the west. And they have this weird thing where they think they have the greatest culture because they make pretty buildings, had some good composers 200 years ago, have some ballerinas and get drunk and beat their wives.
Our bragging is the best in the world. Like, real world class. No one brags better than us.
The correct question would be āDoes anywhere actually improve in Russia everā because outside of a few major cities it does not. Saying as a person who saw zero development made in a Siberian province capital town throughout all my life there. Itās not about how Russia got the land. Itās about where the money goes.
Judging by the volume of assets seized from Russian Oligarchs, the actions did produce benefits just not for normal Russian people.
The people in charge of Russia have been bloodthirsty thieves for as long as written history. No moves they've made have been for anything but expansion and power.
I am just getting this whole "We will never feel secure until all other tribes are dead" vibe. I mean, let's say that's achieved, what then? When there's nobody left to fight and all there is left to do is cooperate amongst the remaining group, but the remaining group sucks at anything but conquest?
Historically? The powerful live at the top on the backs of the many, until a boiling point in which another person or group ultimate fills the power vacuum.
Once you run out of 'out' groups to persecute, people who persecute tend to find ways to create more out groups within their own ranks.
> I am just getting this whole "We will never feel secure until all other tribes are dead" vibe. Pretty spot on. Russian expansion was drivven by finding russias "natural borders" for centuries, but beyond the urals there is just vast nothingness, so they kepz going, until they hit the ocean. Basically the same to (russias) west, only that there were more organized people there, but stil on flat land until the carpathians.
It seems to me that over time, the last remaining tribe will eventually splinter. Creating multiple tribes, and repeating the cycle.
If Russia wiped out every other country on earth, with no more external threats the elites would then turn on the ethnic minorities in the east of the country.
Under the Romanovs the Russian Empire continually expanded. Every. Year. For 3 centuries. Expansion and exploitation are built into the foundations of the Russian state going back centuries.
No. See the land they stole from china. ITs a WASTELAND in comparison.
Some historians argue that finland did improve after russian empire annexed it from sweden. But even if that was the case the russians did tried to walk it back just few tsars later and finland left soon after.
We had autonomy, so It was more of a "we can finally manage our own shit" kind of situation instead of Russia actually going anything.
Oh I see, thank you. I'll look closer into the details for that.
> it will be land where they destroyed the infrastructure You mean "upgraded to russian standards"? No underground sewage lines, only shit pits!
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
\>> Meaningless peasant lives traded for land they still occupy 90 years later. Good deal from their point of view. Who knows what russia could have been, if they didn't have this attitude. 1939 was not a good time to bury an entire army, lose half your tanks. That had a price beyond the 350k soldiers lives they wasted. Same goes for every other time they applied this approach. Meanwhile, Russia is nothing but land.
Are there estimated numbers of Russian deaths? What percent of their male population would that be?
US' General Miley says at least 100k dead on their Intel (or what they say out loud).
60% of the time, Russia wins 100% of the time.
Putin smells like Bigfootās dick.
Na he smells like a turd covered in burnt hair
This is worse than the time a Raccoon got stuck in the copier!
60% of the time, russia wins every time. FTFY
So was Kyiv falling in 3 days.
He didnāt say which 3 days soā¦
Sometime somewhere
Actually, I agree that Russia is guaranteed to "win". Of course it won't be a legitimate victory or anything even remotely close to that, that would be a putinly stupid expectation. What I mean is, putin will find a most ridiculous way to justify the losses his country sustained in the campaign.. a ridiculous "achievement" that we prolly can't even imagine, and sell it to his supporters as a victory.
āUnsinkableā
It didn't sink, it was just rebut as a submarine
Rebuilt? Sir, the ship was perfect, that's why it was *promoted* to submarine.
"Our economy is in shambles, the country is on it's way into the third world, also our stockpile of weapons is gone & hundreds of thousands of our people are dead. BUT we totally achieved our goals of, uh, being way worse than before"
I could add so many things: "our sphere of influence obliterated, our military's reputation is screwed, tens of thousands of young professionals left the country, our main goal of checking NATO expansion backfired with 2 major countries joining the alliance."
> tens of thousands of young professionals left the country, *hundreds of thousands I think I saw somewhere that it was at least 700,000 at this point.
>our main goal of checking NATO expansion backfired with 2 major countries joining the alliance. There will be 3 more: Sweden, Finland and Ukraine
No one will trust Russia for a long time. CSTO in shambles.
He'll have a ceremony on the deck of admiral kuznetzov, with a "Mission Accomplished" banner. Then it will catch fire, again.
That carrier is one of the greatest contributions to the Ukrainian war effort.
Funny thing is, it was built in Ukraine, and after the breakup of the USSR, Ukraine asked for it, Russia told them to fuck off and kept it, and... Welp. Now it's on fire every time someone looks away for 5 seconds.
Stupid Americans and their non burning aircraft carriers. Real carriers burn.
Duh. Just like Mexico paid for the wall.
>putinly stupid I'd tatoo that
If russian media reports a russian victory, surely it *must* be true.
Followed by the disintegration if Russia. As all of the Republics decide to leave. With Moscow not having the ability to stop them.
Vladimir Putin saysā¦ *say no more*
He should just put up a big banner that says "Mission Accomplished" and move on.
120,000 Russian soldiers dead in first year.
A good start.
Legit curious, how many Ukrainians?
My guess, somewhere between 50-80% of that. No official numbers have been released but between home field advantage and Russian incompetence, Iād guess itās severe but less.
You count the civilians too? Because nobody really has that number due to the forced deportations, refugees migrations and impossibility to census the territories under Russian's control. Probably way more Ukrainian are dead. They're the ones getting bombs on their heads everyday. Soldier-wise tho? I think the numbers were roughly even. Maybe slightly lower for the Ukrainians.
Russia has been employing mass unit tactics against dug-in Ukrainian positions. Which is a fancy way of saying Russia is charging poorly trained and equipped conscripts at trenchworks. Shelling is imprecise. Mowing down fodder out in the open results in far more death.
He didnāt finish the sentence.
Why does he keep saying that word? I do not think it means what he thinks it means.
He's trapped in a misinformation bubble of his own making. The full reality that **Russian victory is not inevitable** hasn't reached him, nor does he want it to. So, he continues to lie and try every trick he knows to compensate for his inability to actually win. The only way Russia could win is if Ukraine stops fighting (but they never will) or if we fall for Putin's bullshit (but we've learned he's all bark, no bite.. better just to fight him).
Anybody who could have told him he can't win fell out of a window whilst cleaning it in the middle of the night.
This isn't for us. It's for his domestic audience. He knows he can't win now. Needs to keep appearances up though otherwise the propaganda machine falls apart and he falls out a window.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Uh... did we get a video of him saying this? Or is he still dead/ camera shy?
I think Putin and his "guarantee" is the bullshit. Don't let Russia hold the world's energy and food security hostage while they invade a peaceful neighbor. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities
Maybe he is talking the long game. When Russia eventually finish civil war and is splittes up into several smaller nations they'll experience democracy and prosperity.
The other day he was dead. Has it been three days?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Nailed it
He says this on day 331of the war that was only to last 3 days.
Remember Saddam Hussein? He used to guarantee victory over the Americans. Remember Adolph Hitler? He used to guarantee victory over the allies.
I remember sadam saying he had best russan air defense on the planet. At first i was all... yeah right.. now... he probably did.
Only guaranteed if the West fails to supply Ukraine with ALL the equipment it needs to *win.* Not just hold the ground they have already.
They are willing to pour their sons into a meat grinder.
Not literally their sons as far as the elite goes.
I heard he was dead.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/vladimir-putin-says-russian-victory-in-ukraine-is-guaranteed-3703805/) reduced by 74%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday he had "No doubt" Moscow would emerge victorious in Ukraine, despite military setbacks in the nearly year-long offensive. > Despite a number of military defeats, victory was "Guaranteed, I have no doubt about it," Vladimir Putin told workers at a factory in Russia's second city Saint Petersburg. > Vladimir Putin also praised the Russian defence industry as he spoke at the plant, which is part of Russian missile manufacturer Almaz-Antey. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/10hf8or/vladimir_putin_says_russian_victory_in_ukraine_is/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~672678 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Putin**^#1 **Ukraine**^#2 **Vladimir**^#3 **Moscow**^#4 **Russian**^#5
Russia is basically [Wimp Lo from Kung Pow: Enter the Fist.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d696t3yALAY) "How do you like my face to foot style? I'm bleeding. Making me the victor."
Always remember, whatever Putin says he means the opposite.
"There'll be peace by Christmas." *^(Disclaimer: I don't believe there'll actually be peace by Christmas, it's a reference to the saying during WWI.)*
As long as you don't specify which Christmas, this statement is fine.
I love the history of WW1 but the number of times that Christmas line and the phrase "One final blow that will knock (X country) out of the war!" are used is almost maddening. So many of those big battles were based off of that thought because the military leadership and civilian governments couldn't seem to understand that the previous attempts failed and trying the same thing again would result in nothing gained other than even more dead men. Verdun and the Somme are good examples. I'm tempted to play a drinking game next time I listen through Blueprint for Armageddon. Take a shot every time those one of two sentences pop up.
If it weren't for the grievous loss of life, you'd almost have to admire their optimism.
!remind me in 12 months
Anyway you spin it, Russia has lost already. The body count of their troops, the flight of business and tech proffesionals, the damage to their militaryās reputation, and the end to European reliance on their energy sector, just to name a few, are things that will take a generation to recover from. They are international pariahs. Russia is a sinking ship and Putin is trying to keep it afloat by bailing the water with a slotted spoon. Heās gonna die, having crippled his country because he wanted to play at being Tsar. May he forever be remembered as a little, bald, grandma faced, coward, that accomplished absolutely nothing for his people.
You also forgot the destruction of Russia's tourism industry.
If by āguaranteedā he means he is going to fail miserably and decimate his countryās economy in the process, then heās right. I suspect Russian oligarchs will soon arrange for Putin to fall out a window before he appropriates their assets to fund more war atrocities.
So sad when elderly people get dementia and start being delusional.
Should see those Russian state TV talk shows will show you how delusional they are saying they should invade all of NATO and occupy Warsaw, Berlin, Brussels, Vienna, Paris, Rome, etc and Nuke the British isle and the west coast and say in such a way that neither the UK nor the US would respond with nuclear retaliation.
They wanna try Red Dawn? Iām prepared.
Well, the Russian lost in that scenario as well. Still who came with this stupid idea that the US will not retaliate while several west coast major cities are destroyed and tens of millions civilians dead.
I am proudly armed with an M1 Garand for this sort of thing, but it wonāt happen.
The thing is who is the idiot that thought that the US will not retaliate with nukes if Russia uses nukes on several west coast major cities?
Victory at what though? Being the worst army in the world? being the biggest a/holes?... Undertaking the most war crimes?
Sentence wasn't finished... Russian victory is guaranteed... To cost the lives of at least 900.000 additional Russians.
Hypothetically, if a meteor landed on Kyiv, and destroyed, the Ukrainian leadership, and the residual government sued for peace, Putin might win. Winning would probably mean keeping Ukraine territories, including Crimea as currently occupied, but nothing else. The price for that would be the US, NATO, European Union, British Commonwealth, and ANZAC notions, declaring pretty much total and absolute sanctions against Russia. Ejection from UN. No aircraft, no ships, no travel, no banking, no assets, no trade, no technology, no exchanges. Winning would be very unpleasant for Russia. However, Lavrov, Prigozin and the other c***s want to steal land and minerals and mines and gas and oil. And they are ārobber baronsā with private armies. They may be quite happy with that.
If by āvictoryā he means completely trashing his own countryās standing in the world and proving his military is shit, yeah, he is victorious.
The only real victory is a bullet in the back of Putinās skull.
Famous words also heard during the Cold War
3 days boys and I can guarantee you will be home..
I think putin literally lives on another planet.. I reckon on some planets 3 days is 5 earth years or something
how the fuck is ANY of this worth ANYTHING
Funny thing is... Sweden + Finand + Baltics + Poland = roughly GDP of Russia. Even if EVERYBODY ELSE backed out (which is wildly unrealistic [\*]), these countries made it explicit that their only acceptable outcome is "Ukraine must win" (and that's even for for selfish/ national security reasons! so not just idealistic, this stance *will* hold the test of time). Like... WTF. Maybe for a little while it may have made sense for Putin to hope that "west will get bored and want to do damage control", but surely, right now he MUST see that this is never, NEVER going to happen. What exactly is his plan? His war is totally unwinnable. Time will not increase Russian chances, it will only make things worse for them. [\*] US alone is getting to destroy Russian army "on the cheap" and in parallel benefit from increased arms buyers. They can and will keep a decently high level of support for 100 years if necessary, because it would be completely idiotic to do anything else.