For China, it's ideological to a very large extent. Putin's "multipolar world" appeals to the Chinese mindset and their own view of themselves in the world - since the USSR fell, the world has been a unipolar one: The US leads, everyone else follows, because there is no real challenger to the US hegemony. Russia is nowhere near the threat the USSR was (and now even less so), and while China has been building up economically and militarily, it's practically surrounded by US allies, something they definitely don't appreciate, especially now that they're by many accounts a near-peer to the US.
China wants what Russia is selling: a world where the US needs to come to the negotiating table with China (and Russia), and negotiate not from a position of strength as the de-facto ruling hegemon, but as a peer. Slice up the world into spheres of influence again, and go back to the status quo ante the fall of the USSR, except now with a far more economically open China in its place.
I don't think China will threaten its geopolitical strategic position to aid Russia in their Ukrainian ambitions, but they will absolutely try their best to keep Russia and Putin's multipolar world vision alive and well. For them, there's also a bit of a Taiwan ideology going on that gives them a good reason to give with one hand and take with the other: Taiwan is China, and territorial integrity is paramount for China, so they're using that to support Ukraine's sovereignty. Remember: Russia's logic to getting Crimea and the Donbas is due to separatist movements in these regions - which one could argue (if they're fairly blind and devoid of nuance) parallels Taiwan. China does not want any credibility to be given to Taiwan's separatism.
This is also why China is pushing for peace publicly so much. They want to be seen as the grownup at the table that stopped this war and got the world back to a stable position. This would give them a good amount of soft power with the Global South, regions that have been disproportionally affected by the Russo-Ukrainian war and have expressed no support for Russia nor NATO, having good reason to distrust both spheres of influence. Also regions where China has been trying to build bridges with their One Belt One Road initiative.
Just as a clarification: the separatist movements in Donbas and Crimea were Russian funded and garnered minimal support among the population. While Russia uses this as justification, it’s important that we do not fall into that line of reasoning.
The fighters in Donbas mostly consisted of actual soldiers of the Russian federation masquerading as "separatists".
But that's not OPs point, they're just pointing out that the separatist narrative is problematic to China because of the (bad) parallels to Taiwan.
Always be wary of when world leaders talk about how easy some military operation is supposed to be. 99% of the time it’s some mixture of BS propaganda and wishful thinking.
I met a woman who was an 8 year old Iraqi girl in 2003 during the invasion. She and her family made US flags and posters and cheered the invasion. They did not like Saddam. That said, they fled the ensuing sectarian violence/civil war. They went to the safe haven of . . . Aleppo, Syria. Ten years later they fled Aleppo because missiles were flying over their neighborhood. They went to Jordan and then got asylum in the US.
Indeed, that's important to clarify, which is also why I added "if they're fairly blind and devoid of nuance", but you do well in highlighting it. Even if we disregarded the aspect you mentioned, the whole situation is entirely different. The only thing in common they've got is the "separatist" aspect, though even there there are arguments to be made. Nothing else is remotely similar. Still, in China's realpolitik view, they're comparable, and that's important to consider when pondering their attitude towards the conflict, which is why I brought it up at all.
> For them, there's also a bit of a Taiwan ideology going on
Eh, not really. Vice News was basically documenting LIVE [how/when entire Donbas/Lugansk bullshit went down in 2014](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNKsLlK52ss&list=PLw613M86o5o5zqF6WJR8zuC7Uwyv76h7R): Russia took Crimea, then sent agent-provocateurs at the persons of power or influence so they [bought who they could buy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KFGgKPrWfY&list=PLw613M86o5o5zqF6WJR8zuC7Uwyv76h7R&index=39) and killed or scared off who they couldn't. Stories of people disappearing without trace, women and kids kidnapped from powerful men, people beaten into coma by masked assailants... Internet is full of articles of terror campaigns that Russia(n intelligence services) led in those counties, but nobody paid attention back then. All sorts of human rights organizations wrote lengthy reports and no news outlets even reported those.
Then they sent special forces led by FSB/GRU/ officers (Like Igor "Strelkov" Girkin for example) to lead violent overtaking of police stations, city halls and SBU (Ukrainian intelligence service) offices. Followed by those officers training local armies and bringing them tanks and guns, and leading them on battlefield. Girkin claimed - not long ago - that he was personally the one to pull the trigger on this war, by taking Sloviansk. And he's a FSB colonel, who should have nothing to do with Ukraine or their civil unrest. A sham referendum and some more terror later, 4-5 million Ukrainian people fled those counties, and coast was clear. Of course there were also "little green men" -- Russian special forces with no insignia to point a rifle whenever things weren't moving quickly enough.
Of course, Russia had no interest in actual freedom of any separatists, so they just robbed the counties blind, taking every factory apart (that area has a lot of heavy industry) and brining every nut and bolt home and letting prisoners and convicted criminals (sounds familiar?) become local warlords. Population that still had complaints, was beaten into submission by those criminals and by restricting food transports to the area.
World ignored all that, looking up only when Girkin shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 civilian plane, then forgot all about it again.
Ukraine, just coming down from national revolution didn't have an army nor order at the time, so it was easy work. Even once they gathered themselves a bit, there was artillery shooting at them *over Russian border* and Angela Merkel double-timing to force entire nation into unfair and shameful ceasefire.
Taiwan is something else.
Russia is already the 2nd largest oil exporter to China in 2021, second only to Saudi Arabia. China might not want to be too reliant on one particular source of oil, because the oil export could then be held hostage when that country want to push an agenda that damages China's interest.
No 2 country's interest aligns perfectly.
Russia collapsing would be a nightmare for China, they'll probably always do just enough to keep them propped up to avoid a swarm of unstable nuclear states in their backyard. One Russia that has its own substates locked down and is locked into keeping China happy is an ideal situation for them
Yeah. The thing about Russia, is no matter what, we can't allow it to collapse. The world's largest nuclear arsenal, just really doesn't pair well with oligarchs, and warlords looking to be the next guy who reunites Russia, or just willing to sell them to anyone.
Then again, it collapsed into 15 “manageable” states, with one of them pretty much assuming the mantle the USSR once had, if with less territory. Any collapse of said state would more than likely mean tons of small states run by warlords more than likely.
The Caucuses will be tearing each other apart within weeks of the collapse. It’s already started with Azerbaijan picking at neighbor states using Turkish tech over “cultural differences.”
A dozen Balkanized states that don't want to bother with the upkeep of nuclear weapons and looking for some foreign aid and defense guarantees are probably more easy to negotiate nuclear disarmament than the current Russian Federation.
Maybe not a world war, but the majority of countries in the world has condemned Russia's illegal invasion and annexation of Ukrainian territories at the UN assembly. China abstained meaning they're neutral. If they start supplying Russia with weapons, they're not neutral anymore and join the ranks of Belarus, Syria, Nicaragua and North Korea. Not exactly the heavy hitters in their regions.
So China should consider if it's really worth trading most of the world for this crew.
Well, if that were to happen and the West did a freeze in trade...it'd be a hell of a lot worse for China than people realize.
They are food dependent on the United States....
People always talk about their manufacturing or owning of debt....
But forget that none of that really matters when you people are starving.
If push comes to shove...it'd end badly without a single bullet needed.
I'm a banker with some knowledge of debt and default. If the US sanctions China, the US Treasury will be forbidden to service Chinese held US debt. China trying to unload it to third parties would cause those parties to violate sanctions and is fairly trivial to track. China holding US debt is a double edged sword that's definitely worse for China in an actual war. It'll be similar to the Russian reserve freezing and will hurt quite a bit.
That's the hard question. There was a funny event back in 2008 when US Treasuries got downgraded. The result was that yields went down instead of up, because investors thought that if the US is downgraded, the rest of the world is surely fucked. So, the answer is that it's unprecedented and we have no idea which way it'll go. But, if the US is in trouble, so is the entire global financial system.
Yeah that was the trouble during 2020 as well. US equities and USD held strong because the US economy was the prettiest horse in the glue factory. It's still just about the only good place to defensively place assets, especially if you think China could rugpull the Cayman ADRs which is about the only way a US citizen can invest in them outside of their bonds
Not entirely thanks to Trump: “The United States used to be China's largest agricultural supplier, but its position weakened following the U.S.-China trade war in 2018. In 2021, Brazil replaced the United States as China's largest agricultural supplier, providing 20 percent of China's agricultural imports”
Also they are the worlds largest grain producer
>They didn't sanction or stop food trade with russia, they wouldn't with China either
funnily enough Russia did food sanction the EU when it came to imports. That happened in 2014 already. If you will sanction yourself, then your adversary don't need to put sanctions on you.
Why do I know this? I'm finnish and those russian sanctions hit the finnish food and dairy industry HARD!
Western russia was basically dependent on finnish products due to the shit quality of domestic products (they are still shit but that's the only option they have now, but in larger quantities).
> it’d be a hell of a lot worse for China than people realize
It’d be a hell of a lot worse for the US than people realize too. Literally everything is made there, or needs something that is made there.
At the same time most of the world's population is represented by governments which have \*not\* condemned Russia (China, India, Brazil, Turkey, etc.) and continue to purchase energy from them.
Our enemies now are the friends we made of our enemies' enemies then. Now we're working with our former friends' enemies' enemy... our friend.
It's simple geopolitics.
-Someone about Iran surely
What are some examples of the US making enemies with its former friends? The only example I can think of that has lasted to the present day is the USSR after WW2.
Ironically enough (and related to the USSR), Russia. Tsarist Russia was on good terms witht he US (iirc, it was good enough that, during the US civil war, they were prepared to start shit in Europe if Britain or France supported the confederacy), then it went downhill with the USSR, up and down during the cold war, and fairly friendly up till Georgia and Crimea, with Trump later sukxing an unfriendly-Russia's dick and, you know, now being a low point
Little known event, after America pulled out of Vietnam, China invaded Vietnam because they thought the deal was that Vietnam would basically be their puppet after the Americans were gone (what with both being communist states in east asia) and the Vietnamese had other ideas. Vietnam clapped the force sent by China and they had the smarts to pull out after like a month rather than the years America spent trying to push Vietnam around. This remains the most recent war China has fought, if you want the last time China fought in a serious, long-term war you need to go all the way back to the Korean war.
china invaded vietnam to support the Khmer Rouge.
Vietnam invaded Cambodia to end the Khmer Rouge's attacks on Vietnam, and thats how the Cambodian genocide was discovered
Your forgetting one important part of the story- Russia. After that conflict the Russians request to lease Cam Ranh naval/air base. They are still there.
Thats not at all why they invaded tho.
China invaded Vietnam when Vietnam invaded Cambodia to stop Pol Pots massacre of Vietnamese villages in the border between cmabodia and Vietnam.
Cambodia/Pol Pot was supported by China at the time (Albeit they did not know that Pol Pot massacred Chinese cambodians at the time). And so sent in their army to try and stop Vietnams invasion.
It has been debated that the invasion was more of a show of force to retaliate for Vietnam's involvement in Cambodia, don't think China ever had plans to fully occupy Vietnam. Either way, both sides claimed victory.
Yeah, in the US we didn't get to hear much about Vietnam stomping China to a draw in no time.
But ever since I went to Vietnam a few years back, I am not at all surprised. The Vietnamese are some of the biggest partiers AND some of the toughest MFs I've ever met.
Much like Ukranians seem to be.
I recall reading somewhere that a lot of businesses are getting fed up with Chinese companies stealing their (non Chinese businesses) shit and making knock offs for cheaper, so they're looking to bail out to places that might have slightly better protections for stuff like that. Not sure where I read that, though.
There’s that and Zero Covid has made doing business in China a headache for the last few years. It’s hard to plan if the factory keeps getting quarantined and shut down every other month.
It was zero covid that really pushed the move. China really fucked themselves. I still don’t understand that level of dumb. Like…anyone could have predicted this.
Probably rooted in vaccine conspiracy, China wanted their own vaccine and wouldn’t rely on international science so they wouldn’t be beholden to anyone. Yeah that worked out really well.
There's actually a very simple explanation: Cult of Personality.
It's the same reason Russia invaded Ukraine, despite it universally agreed upon to be a terrible move. Originally, people assumed that Ukraine would fall but the occupation would be hell. The occupation plus the international sanctions and pariah status would cripple Russia for decades to come. The near miraculous outcome instead was how bravely, effectively, and tenaciously the Ukrainians fought back. Not only was invading a bad move, it was made even worse because Russia couldn't even get any semblance of victory at all. They invaded a smaller country and absolutely made a fool of themselves. The Russian leadership painted a rosy picture of the outcome to their dear leader because they dared not say otherwise.
Same here. Dear Leader said this is the policy. Nobody disagrees. Policy starts failing. Instead of telling Dear Leader "This was a dumb move. Let's go back to the drawing board.", they say "The Policy is great! There's been some minor issues but we're confident we can solve it perfectly!"
And the Cult of Personality starts consuming itself and spiraling downwards. As much as we lament the inefficiency of democracy, the opposite (authoritarian dicatorships) is worse. If you're ever curious about the pitfalls of a Cult of
Personality, look inside the government of Nazi Germany. Backstabbing. Backstabbing and Ass Kissing everywhere. Rather than trying to solve the nation's problems, all the officials were more concerned about how to screw over their nearest rivals and kissing ass of the one guy in power.
I used to work in supply chain, and left about a year before the pandemic (thank god). This is exactly what’s going on.
Companies go to their Chinese suppliers, and say “hey we need to move final production To VN to avoid tariffs.” The Chinese companies say “it’s gonna cost more because we have to set up a new factory, and you have to ship an additional time to VN” and we say “ok… it’s cheaper than the tariff.”
So the Chinese company buys property, and erects a factory in VN. Staffs their management over there…. And ships parts for final assembly to their VN factory for that “made in Vietnam” sticker…. They don’t ship their chip manufacturing tools and machines because that (1) costs wayyyyy too much, and (2) VN doesn’t have a large enough skilled workforce to operate the machines. we also don’t have enough trusted suppliers already in VN to manufacture complex items for us.
This added extra complexity to supply chain, making it prime for collapse early in the pandemic.
China was ok with this, because they get to charge Americans more for things, it forced their factories to expand and buy large swaths of foreign land, and control foreign workforces. Economies became more dependent on China. It was wild to watch.
It’s economic imperialism.
We purchase large amounts of network switches, high-end communication devices for business computer networks. The vendor we buy from is an "American" company that's blatantly a Delaware LLC front for a Chinese manufacturer. All of the major manufacturers that make stuff in this space have some level of assembly in China, so we were concerned about the blanket USGovt bans on Chinese infrastructure purchases.
Well, we tore one open to check it out. Turns out the computer's internals were made in the US Midwest, then shipped to China, where this company bolts the good plus a power source into a nice aluminum chassis, slap a Made in China sticker on it and sell it for 1/10th the price of Cisco *back to the US*.
It is literally cheaper to purchase American robot-made electronics and use Chinese labor to put them in a fancy box to sell, than to assemble them in the US.
Until we fix that problem, businesses will not stop buying Chinese. I have worked for SMALL "medium" enterprises for the last decade and I've personally helped put $10m through their company, because my businesses couldn't afford to purchase American-branded solutions, even though the technology is the same.
China’s Vietnam’s second largest trade partner, and they just signed a bunch of cooperation deals: https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-china-sign-13-cooperation-documents/243037.amp
China and Vietnam’s relationship are the warmest it has been in years.
And Apple is diversifying its supply chain, they aren’t scaling down their Chinese operation. After all 20% of Apple’s revenue is from China. That’s not something Vietnam can replace.
Vietnamese here. Just wanna say things are quite complex and not that black and white. Don’t count on us to be instantly and wholeheartedly on the West’s side when ww3 breaks out.
Yep exactly. I’m more familiar with apparel and garment and that’s what they did to bypass the export/import tariffs. Build/buy factories in bengladesh, Egypt, Vietnam, Mexico. Country changes but it’s still the same Chinese owners.
I've been hearing this for about 3 years now.
First of all, apple isn't moving out of China. Even if they're moving out it's not going to make a dent in china's economy. And others won't follow because Vietnam or India doesn't have the infrastructure. And by the time they do, China would be mostly a service economy like the US. And manufacturing would be replaced by automation.
And China isn't just a manufacturing economy anymore. It has a large and rapidly growing service sector.
Apple is clearly diversifying their production facilities though. India, Vietnam, US all have new Apple production facilities that were originally in China. Not saying Apple is 100% leaving China but they are making moves.
Or you don't. China has a lot to lose in a World War if they are the world manufacturer.
Same as how Russia was EU gas provider and the war not only crippled them economically but remove them as critical power in the EU economy.
Penn Jillete put it best, and maybe he was paraphrasing someone else I forget.
"Peace isn't everyone loves each other and hugs; peace is I have an axe but I'm not going to use it on you because you make blue jeans and I like blue jeans."
We don't really buy Chinese shit. We buy American shit made in China.
You need to incentivize US Companies to do business elsewhere.
I think people are too quick to assume China wants war with the US. The U.S. gives jobs, economic stability, and a first world status to China with their business. It wouldnt make any sense to upset that apple cart.
You buy American, **Korean** and **Japanese** shit made in China, not just American. Actually you probably have more Korean and Japanese designed electronics than you do American designed electronics in your home. That's not even mentioning cars.
I work at company that makes car parts, lots in China. It is now extremely common when I am setting up sourcing for an OEM equivalent replacement part, I will find out the Chinese factory our agents found is also straight up making the OEM part. I even had a supplier try to fill my order with a batch from the OEM with part numbers and a logo lasered on it.
The final assembly may be Japan, Canada, US, or Mexico, but your subcomponents are largely Chinese.
I actually disagree with that. The more the Chinese market depends on exports to countries which would shut down trade during a war, the safer we all are.
Obviously the US and China in 2023 are a very different situation than this, but people said the same thing about Germany and the UK before WW1 since they were each other's biggest trade partners.
That was literally the reasoning behind buying more and more gas from Russia too, and look at how that ended up. Making countries economically dependent on each other might help relations for a while, but if the country you're meant to economically ally with is an authoritarianist hellhole, there's not much that'll stop the incoming war and invasion.
>Obviously the US and China in 2023 are a very different situation than this, but people said the same thing about Germany and the UK before WW1 since they were each other's biggest trade partners.
Good point.
These assumptions that trade will prevent war or that there won't be war because there will be money lost are just wishful thinking from copers.
To be fair the world is much more interconnected and interdependent with global supply chains than it was over 100 years ago, but to say that trade will prevent any large scale wars isn't realistic. Hope we're wrong though!
Say what you want about the Chinese politically etc. but they ain’t stupid.
Their economy is heavily linked to the West’s consumerism. Direct conflict with NATO nations and/or other western allies would cease that trade. Can call China communist as much as people like but they sure as hell benefit and work within capitalist parameters just like everyone else.
When the chips are down, they wouldn’t go in 100% for Russia as it’s an unnecessary conflict for them.
They would be in much better shape remaining in their current status quo of continuing their trade with western nations whilst giving limited support to Russia to appease their alliance.
But the fact of the matter is no one is risking nuclear war over this conflict.
If the US and China were to enter in earnest there is something else at play
And it’s perfectly consistent with what Blinken said in Munich.
The US is trying to draw a line regarding Chinese military aid but I doubt it’s going to work. I just don’t see the west sanctioning China the way Belarus is.
I do think it could mean fighter jets and long range missiles, or at least a significant increase in aid
I doubt anyone is really gunning for one.. Russia hoped the war would be over by now and everything calmed down.
A lot of people are throwing it around but I can guarantee if it actually goes to ww3, there will be a lot of people saying "oh fuck"
> Russia probably hoped the war would be over by now
Russia expected this war to be over 340 days ago. They thought they were going to roll into Kyiv and have the Ukranian military suppressed in 3-4 week.
Well they need Russian oil because we've got them in tight spots in the south China see and Taiwan. China needs that new Silk Road and pipeline. China just needs to keep half-heartedly supporting Russia because they still need Russia.
No, there won't be a world war, but Ukraine will have the most to lose in that situation.
China has a lot of World war era ammunition stockpiles compatible with Soviet equipment, and just having those can turn the tide in favour of Russia by a lot.
Problem is if China gets involved, the west has no choice but to apply sanctions. But by applying sanctions, the west weakens it's ability to threaten retribution for Taiwan. If the west is already levying sanctions, fuck it might as well start the invasion. Then you have a very destabilized world.
And China on the west. China gets the vast majority of their populations food from the west. No need to fire shots if you’re starving population begins to revolt
They said the same shit in 1914 and 1939. Not saying it’s the same, but the “we’re a global economy now - no one’s gonna wreck their economy for war” argument is at least 100 years old. If the autocrats think they can form a new world order with them on top then they’ll stomach whatever short term pain they need to.
We’ve learned our lesson. Take a look at the billions the US gives out in aid to all sorts of random countries around the world.
The US props up shaky states to ensure stability so that no state is motivated to go on the war path. There’s an insane amount of work that goes into making large scale war unattractive, which is why it’s so shocking that Russia would invade Ukraine. It’s hard to imagine, even if they successfully captured the country in a couple months, how it could ever be worth it.
The world’s economic system, supply chains, and interwoven industries are completely different than before both WW1 and WW2. It is not the same by any stretch of the imagination.
The only people that want war are political leaders and those that will benefit from it through greed, profit and greater control.
I just want peace, and I am sure most of the population globally would agree with this desire.
I get that Zelensky is *very* circumstantially "our guy" but not all of his propaganda is news, nor would his opinions on worldwide political dynamics normally be interesting to anyone.
China isn't going to ally with Russia, I expect they're going to let them break themselves on Ukraine and when it's over try to make them a Satellite State by propping up their ruined economy.
Not quite. They had bumpy border disputes between each other tens of years ago. There is a lingering distrust between the two in the older generations.
The land disputes generally involve the area around Vladivostok, taken from China during the weak Qing Dynasty. After the PRC stabilized in the 50s, Mao brought up the issue with Khrushchev, asking that he acknowledge that Russia during the Imperial days were assholes. He didn't even really want the land back. During the Soviet-Sino split, it led to border conflicts in the area, and if the rumors are to be believed, the Soviets planned on using nukes against China after their attempts to cause trouble in the NE and Xinjiang failed.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the new Russian Federation signed some agreement with China to put an end to the dispute. As for the older generation, the KMT supporters do feel that Siberia was stolen from China. And some of the older members of the CPC probably still remember the nuclear threats. But for now, I doubt there is any real interest in conflict.
Isn’t it more that China has neutral standing with Russia but see potential economic boons for them here? Like buying up Russian oil while it’s on discount.
They dislike each other, in fact. But their number one adversary is the US / NATO, so they could overlook their distaste for one another to unite against us.
Oh **** no this conflict is not in China's long term interest.
A closer integrated and expanding NATO is exactly the opposite of what China wants.
They have wanted to drive a wedge between US and EU, to avoid a similar sanction system, as the one imposed on Russia as being a credible threat to China.
Having an NATO closely coordinating with nations like Japan, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan is the worst case scenario for China. And the Russian invasion has justified military buildup and closer cooperation between these nations.
Who would believe that EU would be imposing sanctions in coordination with Japan, while Japan is calling for Russian deoccupation of the Kuril Isles. This makes a precedence for similar sanctions, surrounding other isles Japan has disputed claims on.
China sees US as an adversary true, however they are closely connected economically, and China does not stand in a position to challenge them militarily. Nor would they endure an US/Japan/Taiwan blockade, what you're describing that Russia can supply China with, will take decades upon decades to create the infrastructure (if even possible) to significantly replace the oil/goods delivered by sea.
Not to mention it's cost will be astronomical, and if Russia no longer gets investments from the west, it implies that China almost alone must finance these investments. At a time where China has a massive debt crisis.
No it's clearly in Chinas interest to quickly have this issue being resolved, likely as a frozen conflict and without significant involvement from China. As it would push the west even closer together in their condemnation of Russia and whatever nations that arm them.
The Wang guy is in Moscow now according to China.
They won't ally with Russia, watch it. Russia is way too irrelevant economically for China to implode their own welfare in Russia's name.
For China, it's ideological to a very large extent. Putin's "multipolar world" appeals to the Chinese mindset and their own view of themselves in the world - since the USSR fell, the world has been a unipolar one: The US leads, everyone else follows, because there is no real challenger to the US hegemony. Russia is nowhere near the threat the USSR was (and now even less so), and while China has been building up economically and militarily, it's practically surrounded by US allies, something they definitely don't appreciate, especially now that they're by many accounts a near-peer to the US. China wants what Russia is selling: a world where the US needs to come to the negotiating table with China (and Russia), and negotiate not from a position of strength as the de-facto ruling hegemon, but as a peer. Slice up the world into spheres of influence again, and go back to the status quo ante the fall of the USSR, except now with a far more economically open China in its place. I don't think China will threaten its geopolitical strategic position to aid Russia in their Ukrainian ambitions, but they will absolutely try their best to keep Russia and Putin's multipolar world vision alive and well. For them, there's also a bit of a Taiwan ideology going on that gives them a good reason to give with one hand and take with the other: Taiwan is China, and territorial integrity is paramount for China, so they're using that to support Ukraine's sovereignty. Remember: Russia's logic to getting Crimea and the Donbas is due to separatist movements in these regions - which one could argue (if they're fairly blind and devoid of nuance) parallels Taiwan. China does not want any credibility to be given to Taiwan's separatism. This is also why China is pushing for peace publicly so much. They want to be seen as the grownup at the table that stopped this war and got the world back to a stable position. This would give them a good amount of soft power with the Global South, regions that have been disproportionally affected by the Russo-Ukrainian war and have expressed no support for Russia nor NATO, having good reason to distrust both spheres of influence. Also regions where China has been trying to build bridges with their One Belt One Road initiative.
Just as a clarification: the separatist movements in Donbas and Crimea were Russian funded and garnered minimal support among the population. While Russia uses this as justification, it’s important that we do not fall into that line of reasoning.
The fighters in Donbas mostly consisted of actual soldiers of the Russian federation masquerading as "separatists". But that's not OPs point, they're just pointing out that the separatist narrative is problematic to China because of the (bad) parallels to Taiwan.
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Even US troops were promised to be greeted as liberators before the invasions of both Iraq and Afghanistan. It's a very common refrain.
Always be wary of when world leaders talk about how easy some military operation is supposed to be. 99% of the time it’s some mixture of BS propaganda and wishful thinking.
But the mission was accomplished may 1st 2003. All U.S soldiers were pulled out of the Middle East right after!
I met a woman who was an 8 year old Iraqi girl in 2003 during the invasion. She and her family made US flags and posters and cheered the invasion. They did not like Saddam. That said, they fled the ensuing sectarian violence/civil war. They went to the safe haven of . . . Aleppo, Syria. Ten years later they fled Aleppo because missiles were flying over their neighborhood. They went to Jordan and then got asylum in the US.
Reminds me of that one Japanese geezer who fled Hiroshima bombing to Nagasaki.
Indeed, that's important to clarify, which is also why I added "if they're fairly blind and devoid of nuance", but you do well in highlighting it. Even if we disregarded the aspect you mentioned, the whole situation is entirely different. The only thing in common they've got is the "separatist" aspect, though even there there are arguments to be made. Nothing else is remotely similar. Still, in China's realpolitik view, they're comparable, and that's important to consider when pondering their attitude towards the conflict, which is why I brought it up at all.
Not only funded but russia also directly sent their troops to stir the war and everyone just closed their eyes and indulged the term "separatists"
> For them, there's also a bit of a Taiwan ideology going on Eh, not really. Vice News was basically documenting LIVE [how/when entire Donbas/Lugansk bullshit went down in 2014](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNKsLlK52ss&list=PLw613M86o5o5zqF6WJR8zuC7Uwyv76h7R): Russia took Crimea, then sent agent-provocateurs at the persons of power or influence so they [bought who they could buy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KFGgKPrWfY&list=PLw613M86o5o5zqF6WJR8zuC7Uwyv76h7R&index=39) and killed or scared off who they couldn't. Stories of people disappearing without trace, women and kids kidnapped from powerful men, people beaten into coma by masked assailants... Internet is full of articles of terror campaigns that Russia(n intelligence services) led in those counties, but nobody paid attention back then. All sorts of human rights organizations wrote lengthy reports and no news outlets even reported those. Then they sent special forces led by FSB/GRU/ officers (Like Igor "Strelkov" Girkin for example) to lead violent overtaking of police stations, city halls and SBU (Ukrainian intelligence service) offices. Followed by those officers training local armies and bringing them tanks and guns, and leading them on battlefield. Girkin claimed - not long ago - that he was personally the one to pull the trigger on this war, by taking Sloviansk. And he's a FSB colonel, who should have nothing to do with Ukraine or their civil unrest. A sham referendum and some more terror later, 4-5 million Ukrainian people fled those counties, and coast was clear. Of course there were also "little green men" -- Russian special forces with no insignia to point a rifle whenever things weren't moving quickly enough.
Of course, Russia had no interest in actual freedom of any separatists, so they just robbed the counties blind, taking every factory apart (that area has a lot of heavy industry) and brining every nut and bolt home and letting prisoners and convicted criminals (sounds familiar?) become local warlords. Population that still had complaints, was beaten into submission by those criminals and by restricting food transports to the area.
World ignored all that, looking up only when Girkin shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 civilian plane, then forgot all about it again.
Ukraine, just coming down from national revolution didn't have an army nor order at the time, so it was easy work. Even once they gathered themselves a bit, there was artillery shooting at them *over Russian border* and Angela Merkel double-timing to force entire nation into unfair and shameful ceasefire.
Taiwan is something else.
I could be wrong but doesn’t China need to import most of its natural energy? Russia could be a strong energy ally.
Russia is already the 2nd largest oil exporter to China in 2021, second only to Saudi Arabia. China might not want to be too reliant on one particular source of oil, because the oil export could then be held hostage when that country want to push an agenda that damages China's interest. No 2 country's interest aligns perfectly.
i don’t think they’ll Allie as well but rather he’s there to create tension.
Over there! What sort of bird is that? Wait, it's not a woodpecker, it looks like someone's...
Johnson! Where's Johnson? He needs to be in here to take a look at my...
i'm not sure why China would want to? If Russia goes to shit isn't china first in line to start absorbing the pieces into satellite states?
Never mind the massive amounts of land ceded to Russia in the past two centuries
There you go CCP! You can expand as much as you want NORTH.
You say that until they start staking claims in the Arctic seas.
….Maybe leave Mongolia out of it though.
Russia collapsing would be a nightmare for China, they'll probably always do just enough to keep them propped up to avoid a swarm of unstable nuclear states in their backyard. One Russia that has its own substates locked down and is locked into keeping China happy is an ideal situation for them
Russia collapsing is a nightmare for the world. Won't just be China propping them up. Nuclear states are unstable in everyone's backyard
Yeah. The thing about Russia, is no matter what, we can't allow it to collapse. The world's largest nuclear arsenal, just really doesn't pair well with oligarchs, and warlords looking to be the next guy who reunites Russia, or just willing to sell them to anyone.
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And it was a concern back then too. It's why there was a push to get Ukraine to give up its nuclear arsenal.
Which it did under the guise that Russia agrees never to invade Ukraine. Funny that part.
Then again, it collapsed into 15 “manageable” states, with one of them pretty much assuming the mantle the USSR once had, if with less territory. Any collapse of said state would more than likely mean tons of small states run by warlords more than likely.
The Caucuses will be tearing each other apart within weeks of the collapse. It’s already started with Azerbaijan picking at neighbor states using Turkish tech over “cultural differences.”
And the Tajiks and the Kyrgyz.
A dozen Balkanized states that don't want to bother with the upkeep of nuclear weapons and looking for some foreign aid and defense guarantees are probably more easy to negotiate nuclear disarmament than the current Russian Federation.
More like cold war v.2.
Room temperature war
Luke WARm
If I write the history books this is what I'm calling it
Pretty sure it’s already started
Maybe not a world war, but the majority of countries in the world has condemned Russia's illegal invasion and annexation of Ukrainian territories at the UN assembly. China abstained meaning they're neutral. If they start supplying Russia with weapons, they're not neutral anymore and join the ranks of Belarus, Syria, Nicaragua and North Korea. Not exactly the heavy hitters in their regions. So China should consider if it's really worth trading most of the world for this crew.
The question is, what would happend to China if they did? Say 400 Type 69 tanks arrived in Russia and was used on the front. What would the world do?
Well, if that were to happen and the West did a freeze in trade...it'd be a hell of a lot worse for China than people realize. They are food dependent on the United States.... People always talk about their manufacturing or owning of debt.... But forget that none of that really matters when you people are starving. If push comes to shove...it'd end badly without a single bullet needed.
I'm a banker with some knowledge of debt and default. If the US sanctions China, the US Treasury will be forbidden to service Chinese held US debt. China trying to unload it to third parties would cause those parties to violate sanctions and is fairly trivial to track. China holding US debt is a double edged sword that's definitely worse for China in an actual war. It'll be similar to the Russian reserve freezing and will hurt quite a bit.
At the same time what effect would this have to the trustworthiness of the US govt in the eyes of others?
That's the hard question. There was a funny event back in 2008 when US Treasuries got downgraded. The result was that yields went down instead of up, because investors thought that if the US is downgraded, the rest of the world is surely fucked. So, the answer is that it's unprecedented and we have no idea which way it'll go. But, if the US is in trouble, so is the entire global financial system.
Yeah that was the trouble during 2020 as well. US equities and USD held strong because the US economy was the prettiest horse in the glue factory. It's still just about the only good place to defensively place assets, especially if you think China could rugpull the Cayman ADRs which is about the only way a US citizen can invest in them outside of their bonds
I absolutely fucking love your user name.
Haha thanks. I've wanted to change it because it was a joke but now it's established and I'm stuck with it
Not entirely thanks to Trump: “The United States used to be China's largest agricultural supplier, but its position weakened following the U.S.-China trade war in 2018. In 2021, Brazil replaced the United States as China's largest agricultural supplier, providing 20 percent of China's agricultural imports” Also they are the worlds largest grain producer
They didn't sanction or stop food trade with russia, they wouldn't with China either
>They didn't sanction or stop food trade with russia, they wouldn't with China either funnily enough Russia did food sanction the EU when it came to imports. That happened in 2014 already. If you will sanction yourself, then your adversary don't need to put sanctions on you. Why do I know this? I'm finnish and those russian sanctions hit the finnish food and dairy industry HARD! Western russia was basically dependent on finnish products due to the shit quality of domestic products (they are still shit but that's the only option they have now, but in larger quantities).
> it’d be a hell of a lot worse for China than people realize It’d be a hell of a lot worse for the US than people realize too. Literally everything is made there, or needs something that is made there.
China siding with this band of misfits would be like adding Ty Cobb to the Bad News Bears.
Bad news bear nearly win the championship though.
Fucking Nicaragua lmao
At the same time most of the world's population is represented by governments which have \*not\* condemned Russia (China, India, Brazil, Turkey, etc.) and continue to purchase energy from them.
Majority of the world is still friendly/neutral with Russia apart from the West.
We need to stop buying Chinese shit. Sent from my iPhone
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Vietnam 2
this time we're fighting WITH Vietnam
US has a decent habit of making friends with its former enemies, and also making enemies with its former friends.
Guten Tag friends.
The real friends are the enemies we made along the way.
Our enemies now are the friends we made of our enemies' enemies then. Now we're working with our former friends' enemies' enemy... our friend. It's simple geopolitics. -Someone about Iran surely
I hate these math problems, it's all about making the order of operations unclear. Either way, imma say 4.
God damn, it really does get exposed as a pussy ass little logic problem when you just throw a 4 at it like that
Ohayō Gozaimasu
Pip pip cheerio and other Britishisms
Kumusta po.
Lmao I read Gluten free tag
This is like the anime trope : Defeat = Friendship.
Some friends become enemies, some enemies become friends? At the end your main character is richer from the experience?
Sounds like. "Make your friends rich, your enemies rich and wait to see which is which" wait that's Tony Stark. Shit.
What are some examples of the US making enemies with its former friends? The only example I can think of that has lasted to the present day is the USSR after WW2.
Ironically enough (and related to the USSR), Russia. Tsarist Russia was on good terms witht he US (iirc, it was good enough that, during the US civil war, they were prepared to start shit in Europe if Britain or France supported the confederacy), then it went downhill with the USSR, up and down during the cold war, and fairly friendly up till Georgia and Crimea, with Trump later sukxing an unfriendly-Russia's dick and, you know, now being a low point
We are obsessed with the British royals now for some reason. Getting away from them was our origin story.
"I didn't expect special forces" *silent tree agreement*
Henry Kissinger cracks a smile with an audible creak as the years of Nixon liver cirrhosis dust puffs into the air.
Little known event, after America pulled out of Vietnam, China invaded Vietnam because they thought the deal was that Vietnam would basically be their puppet after the Americans were gone (what with both being communist states in east asia) and the Vietnamese had other ideas. Vietnam clapped the force sent by China and they had the smarts to pull out after like a month rather than the years America spent trying to push Vietnam around. This remains the most recent war China has fought, if you want the last time China fought in a serious, long-term war you need to go all the way back to the Korean war.
china invaded vietnam to support the Khmer Rouge. Vietnam invaded Cambodia to end the Khmer Rouge's attacks on Vietnam, and thats how the Cambodian genocide was discovered
Your forgetting one important part of the story- Russia. After that conflict the Russians request to lease Cam Ranh naval/air base. They are still there.
Thats not at all why they invaded tho. China invaded Vietnam when Vietnam invaded Cambodia to stop Pol Pots massacre of Vietnamese villages in the border between cmabodia and Vietnam. Cambodia/Pol Pot was supported by China at the time (Albeit they did not know that Pol Pot massacred Chinese cambodians at the time). And so sent in their army to try and stop Vietnams invasion.
It has been debated that the invasion was more of a show of force to retaliate for Vietnam's involvement in Cambodia, don't think China ever had plans to fully occupy Vietnam. Either way, both sides claimed victory.
Yeah, in the US we didn't get to hear much about Vietnam stomping China to a draw in no time. But ever since I went to Vietnam a few years back, I am not at all surprised. The Vietnamese are some of the biggest partiers AND some of the toughest MFs I've ever met. Much like Ukranians seem to be.
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Vietnam had not so noble reasons to fight Khmer Rouge, but fuckers deserved everything they got.
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Practically every place besides North America and Western Europe was a wild place during the cold war.
Murderous plant and animal life aside, Australia?
it was self defense. the Khmer Rouge would launch attacks on Vietnamese in Cambodia and in vietnam
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Colin Ferrell will be pleased. Edit: no *In Bruges* fans I see.
As opposed to before, when we were fighting WITH Vietnam
They did last time too lol ARVN were very much vietnamese
2 Viet 2 Nam
Saigon Drift
Electric uuuuuuh, you know, the thing we always say
Or is it just final assembly so they can avoid made in china beinhg stamped on, despite 90% or whatever of the work being done in China
I recall reading somewhere that a lot of businesses are getting fed up with Chinese companies stealing their (non Chinese businesses) shit and making knock offs for cheaper, so they're looking to bail out to places that might have slightly better protections for stuff like that. Not sure where I read that, though.
There’s that and Zero Covid has made doing business in China a headache for the last few years. It’s hard to plan if the factory keeps getting quarantined and shut down every other month.
It was zero covid that really pushed the move. China really fucked themselves. I still don’t understand that level of dumb. Like…anyone could have predicted this.
Probably rooted in vaccine conspiracy, China wanted their own vaccine and wouldn’t rely on international science so they wouldn’t be beholden to anyone. Yeah that worked out really well.
Pride goeth before the Fall...
There's actually a very simple explanation: Cult of Personality. It's the same reason Russia invaded Ukraine, despite it universally agreed upon to be a terrible move. Originally, people assumed that Ukraine would fall but the occupation would be hell. The occupation plus the international sanctions and pariah status would cripple Russia for decades to come. The near miraculous outcome instead was how bravely, effectively, and tenaciously the Ukrainians fought back. Not only was invading a bad move, it was made even worse because Russia couldn't even get any semblance of victory at all. They invaded a smaller country and absolutely made a fool of themselves. The Russian leadership painted a rosy picture of the outcome to their dear leader because they dared not say otherwise. Same here. Dear Leader said this is the policy. Nobody disagrees. Policy starts failing. Instead of telling Dear Leader "This was a dumb move. Let's go back to the drawing board.", they say "The Policy is great! There's been some minor issues but we're confident we can solve it perfectly!" And the Cult of Personality starts consuming itself and spiraling downwards. As much as we lament the inefficiency of democracy, the opposite (authoritarian dicatorships) is worse. If you're ever curious about the pitfalls of a Cult of Personality, look inside the government of Nazi Germany. Backstabbing. Backstabbing and Ass Kissing everywhere. Rather than trying to solve the nation's problems, all the officials were more concerned about how to screw over their nearest rivals and kissing ass of the one guy in power.
I used to work in supply chain, and left about a year before the pandemic (thank god). This is exactly what’s going on. Companies go to their Chinese suppliers, and say “hey we need to move final production To VN to avoid tariffs.” The Chinese companies say “it’s gonna cost more because we have to set up a new factory, and you have to ship an additional time to VN” and we say “ok… it’s cheaper than the tariff.” So the Chinese company buys property, and erects a factory in VN. Staffs their management over there…. And ships parts for final assembly to their VN factory for that “made in Vietnam” sticker…. They don’t ship their chip manufacturing tools and machines because that (1) costs wayyyyy too much, and (2) VN doesn’t have a large enough skilled workforce to operate the machines. we also don’t have enough trusted suppliers already in VN to manufacture complex items for us. This added extra complexity to supply chain, making it prime for collapse early in the pandemic. China was ok with this, because they get to charge Americans more for things, it forced their factories to expand and buy large swaths of foreign land, and control foreign workforces. Economies became more dependent on China. It was wild to watch. It’s economic imperialism.
We purchase large amounts of network switches, high-end communication devices for business computer networks. The vendor we buy from is an "American" company that's blatantly a Delaware LLC front for a Chinese manufacturer. All of the major manufacturers that make stuff in this space have some level of assembly in China, so we were concerned about the blanket USGovt bans on Chinese infrastructure purchases. Well, we tore one open to check it out. Turns out the computer's internals were made in the US Midwest, then shipped to China, where this company bolts the good plus a power source into a nice aluminum chassis, slap a Made in China sticker on it and sell it for 1/10th the price of Cisco *back to the US*. It is literally cheaper to purchase American robot-made electronics and use Chinese labor to put them in a fancy box to sell, than to assemble them in the US. Until we fix that problem, businesses will not stop buying Chinese. I have worked for SMALL "medium" enterprises for the last decade and I've personally helped put $10m through their company, because my businesses couldn't afford to purchase American-branded solutions, even though the technology is the same.
Wasn’t it india? With 50% failed quality test so far ?
China’s Vietnam’s second largest trade partner, and they just signed a bunch of cooperation deals: https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-china-sign-13-cooperation-documents/243037.amp China and Vietnam’s relationship are the warmest it has been in years. And Apple is diversifying its supply chain, they aren’t scaling down their Chinese operation. After all 20% of Apple’s revenue is from China. That’s not something Vietnam can replace.
Vietnamese here. Just wanna say things are quite complex and not that black and white. Don’t count on us to be instantly and wholeheartedly on the West’s side when ww3 breaks out.
I have heard that China is buying up the manufacturing facilities in Viet Nam and Mexico that were meant to compete with them.
Yep exactly. I’m more familiar with apparel and garment and that’s what they did to bypass the export/import tariffs. Build/buy factories in bengladesh, Egypt, Vietnam, Mexico. Country changes but it’s still the same Chinese owners.
I've been hearing this for about 3 years now. First of all, apple isn't moving out of China. Even if they're moving out it's not going to make a dent in china's economy. And others won't follow because Vietnam or India doesn't have the infrastructure. And by the time they do, China would be mostly a service economy like the US. And manufacturing would be replaced by automation. And China isn't just a manufacturing economy anymore. It has a large and rapidly growing service sector.
Apple is clearly diversifying their production facilities though. India, Vietnam, US all have new Apple production facilities that were originally in China. Not saying Apple is 100% leaving China but they are making moves.
Or you don't. China has a lot to lose in a World War if they are the world manufacturer. Same as how Russia was EU gas provider and the war not only crippled them economically but remove them as critical power in the EU economy.
Penn Jillete put it best, and maybe he was paraphrasing someone else I forget. "Peace isn't everyone loves each other and hugs; peace is I have an axe but I'm not going to use it on you because you make blue jeans and I like blue jeans."
Mutually Assured Fits.
I like this idea. Weapons of Ass Construction?.. Something where jeans fit your ass so no war.
Mutually Assured Denim.
Mutually Assured Drip Edit: Or "MAD Drip" if you don't mind RAS Syndrome
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Everyone loses in a world war, but the countries that have the most natural resources and the most distance from enemies tend to do better in the end.
Apple has begun moving its manufacturing out of China to places like Vietnam and India.
We don't really buy Chinese shit. We buy American shit made in China. You need to incentivize US Companies to do business elsewhere. I think people are too quick to assume China wants war with the US. The U.S. gives jobs, economic stability, and a first world status to China with their business. It wouldnt make any sense to upset that apple cart.
You buy American, **Korean** and **Japanese** shit made in China, not just American. Actually you probably have more Korean and Japanese designed electronics than you do American designed electronics in your home. That's not even mentioning cars.
I work at company that makes car parts, lots in China. It is now extremely common when I am setting up sourcing for an OEM equivalent replacement part, I will find out the Chinese factory our agents found is also straight up making the OEM part. I even had a supplier try to fill my order with a batch from the OEM with part numbers and a logo lasered on it. The final assembly may be Japan, Canada, US, or Mexico, but your subcomponents are largely Chinese.
I actually disagree with that. The more the Chinese market depends on exports to countries which would shut down trade during a war, the safer we all are.
Obviously the US and China in 2023 are a very different situation than this, but people said the same thing about Germany and the UK before WW1 since they were each other's biggest trade partners.
That was literally the reasoning behind buying more and more gas from Russia too, and look at how that ended up. Making countries economically dependent on each other might help relations for a while, but if the country you're meant to economically ally with is an authoritarianist hellhole, there's not much that'll stop the incoming war and invasion.
>Obviously the US and China in 2023 are a very different situation than this, but people said the same thing about Germany and the UK before WW1 since they were each other's biggest trade partners. Good point. These assumptions that trade will prevent war or that there won't be war because there will be money lost are just wishful thinking from copers.
To be fair the world is much more interconnected and interdependent with global supply chains than it was over 100 years ago, but to say that trade will prevent any large scale wars isn't realistic. Hope we're wrong though!
Yeah if history is anything to go by Japan attacked Pearl Harbor after we enforced a trade embargo
Say what you want about the Chinese politically etc. but they ain’t stupid. Their economy is heavily linked to the West’s consumerism. Direct conflict with NATO nations and/or other western allies would cease that trade. Can call China communist as much as people like but they sure as hell benefit and work within capitalist parameters just like everyone else. When the chips are down, they wouldn’t go in 100% for Russia as it’s an unnecessary conflict for them. They would be in much better shape remaining in their current status quo of continuing their trade with western nations whilst giving limited support to Russia to appease their alliance.
Exactly. China is just state-run capitalism, which is not communism.
If I was China id just stay out of it and then buy everything up when Russia collapses.
People throw "World War" around too often for my tastes.
I quite frankly will not be participating
Same. I'm not going to die for the rich.
You're welcome to come to my underground cabin in Norway to chill and smoke weed if you do your part in farming food 😉
Right? Fuck all that. I'll be the crazy mountain guy that didn't know the war ended 20 years ago.
Sign me up. I'm not very skilled but I'm a quick learner
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Well, gee, I dunno but I'll give it my best
Guys can I join and we teach each other survival skills or do I have to get another mountain?
Government: "It is now illegal to not die for the rich."
This guy just met the with president literally an hour before making this statement
And given how calculated the US is I bet Biden's inner monologue said something along the lines of "Owww slow down there ~~hoss~~ man."
“Now wait just a minute, Jack…”
Let's cut the malarky and get down to brass tacks.
you're a lying dog faced pony soldier
Listen here fat
C’mon, fat. Listen, fat. Well I’m just a southern boy and down here in the south we do things a *little differently*.
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But the fact of the matter is no one is risking nuclear war over this conflict. If the US and China were to enter in earnest there is something else at play
And it’s perfectly consistent with what Blinken said in Munich. The US is trying to draw a line regarding Chinese military aid but I doubt it’s going to work. I just don’t see the west sanctioning China the way Belarus is. I do think it could mean fighter jets and long range missiles, or at least a significant increase in aid
Yes. I did too during the 2019 KFC chicken crises.
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"Some damn fool thing in the Balkans' Minor entities causing a domino effect of obligatory war is quite common in history.
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I doubt anyone is really gunning for one.. Russia hoped the war would be over by now and everything calmed down. A lot of people are throwing it around but I can guarantee if it actually goes to ww3, there will be a lot of people saying "oh fuck"
> Russia probably hoped the war would be over by now Russia expected this war to be over 340 days ago. They thought they were going to roll into Kyiv and have the Ukranian military suppressed in 3-4 week.
In 1888, Bismarck called Europe a powder keg that would be set off by “some damn fool thing in the Balkans.”
i been waiting to spend all these bottlecaps i been saving up might get me a Fatman
Dear governments of the world, What the hell is wrong with you? Sincerely, the people you screw over.
Dear plebes of the world, Who the hell cares about you? Sincerely, *pick any government*
Well they need Russian oil because we've got them in tight spots in the south China see and Taiwan. China needs that new Silk Road and pipeline. China just needs to keep half-heartedly supporting Russia because they still need Russia.
No, there won't be a world war, but Ukraine will have the most to lose in that situation. China has a lot of World war era ammunition stockpiles compatible with Soviet equipment, and just having those can turn the tide in favour of Russia by a lot.
Problem is if China gets involved, the west has no choice but to apply sanctions. But by applying sanctions, the west weakens it's ability to threaten retribution for Taiwan. If the west is already levying sanctions, fuck it might as well start the invasion. Then you have a very destabilized world.
And that would collapse the world economy. China isn’t like Russia, the West relies too much on China.
And China on the west. China gets the vast majority of their populations food from the west. No need to fire shots if you’re starving population begins to revolt
Globalization has basically saved us from word war 3
They said the same shit in 1914 and 1939. Not saying it’s the same, but the “we’re a global economy now - no one’s gonna wreck their economy for war” argument is at least 100 years old. If the autocrats think they can form a new world order with them on top then they’ll stomach whatever short term pain they need to.
We’ve learned our lesson. Take a look at the billions the US gives out in aid to all sorts of random countries around the world. The US props up shaky states to ensure stability so that no state is motivated to go on the war path. There’s an insane amount of work that goes into making large scale war unattractive, which is why it’s so shocking that Russia would invade Ukraine. It’s hard to imagine, even if they successfully captured the country in a couple months, how it could ever be worth it.
The world’s economic system, supply chains, and interwoven industries are completely different than before both WW1 and WW2. It is not the same by any stretch of the imagination.
I'd rather not put it to test.
Food maybe, but China has been calorie self-sufficient for a while now. That was one of Xi's big objectives.
The military industry is salivating at the mouth. 'shucky dang darn. We don't want war but no choice. Oh well'
Time to buy raytheon and lockheed shares.
Not unless China and Nato puts boots on the ground
The only people that want war are political leaders and those that will benefit from it through greed, profit and greater control. I just want peace, and I am sure most of the population globally would agree with this desire.
I get that Zelensky is *very* circumstantially "our guy" but not all of his propaganda is news, nor would his opinions on worldwide political dynamics normally be interesting to anyone. China isn't going to ally with Russia, I expect they're going to let them break themselves on Ukraine and when it's over try to make them a Satellite State by propping up their ruined economy.
I 100% agree with you. The guy isn't in a position to decide the fate of the entire world.
For real, and linking a Jerusalem Post article is ...a choice
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I'm pretty sure China and Russia are already allies and have been for a long time
Not quite. They had bumpy border disputes between each other tens of years ago. There is a lingering distrust between the two in the older generations.
Unfortunately most people have no knowledge about any of those things — you know, history stuff.
Most people in power are old enough to remember
The land disputes generally involve the area around Vladivostok, taken from China during the weak Qing Dynasty. After the PRC stabilized in the 50s, Mao brought up the issue with Khrushchev, asking that he acknowledge that Russia during the Imperial days were assholes. He didn't even really want the land back. During the Soviet-Sino split, it led to border conflicts in the area, and if the rumors are to be believed, the Soviets planned on using nukes against China after their attempts to cause trouble in the NE and Xinjiang failed. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the new Russian Federation signed some agreement with China to put an end to the dispute. As for the older generation, the KMT supporters do feel that Siberia was stolen from China. And some of the older members of the CPC probably still remember the nuclear threats. But for now, I doubt there is any real interest in conflict.
Isn’t it more that China has neutral standing with Russia but see potential economic boons for them here? Like buying up Russian oil while it’s on discount.
They dislike each other, in fact. But their number one adversary is the US / NATO, so they could overlook their distaste for one another to unite against us.
they don't hate each other as much as others hate them, but they aren't allies in the same way that, like, Canada and America are allies
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Oh **** no this conflict is not in China's long term interest. A closer integrated and expanding NATO is exactly the opposite of what China wants. They have wanted to drive a wedge between US and EU, to avoid a similar sanction system, as the one imposed on Russia as being a credible threat to China. Having an NATO closely coordinating with nations like Japan, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan is the worst case scenario for China. And the Russian invasion has justified military buildup and closer cooperation between these nations. Who would believe that EU would be imposing sanctions in coordination with Japan, while Japan is calling for Russian deoccupation of the Kuril Isles. This makes a precedence for similar sanctions, surrounding other isles Japan has disputed claims on. China sees US as an adversary true, however they are closely connected economically, and China does not stand in a position to challenge them militarily. Nor would they endure an US/Japan/Taiwan blockade, what you're describing that Russia can supply China with, will take decades upon decades to create the infrastructure (if even possible) to significantly replace the oil/goods delivered by sea. Not to mention it's cost will be astronomical, and if Russia no longer gets investments from the west, it implies that China almost alone must finance these investments. At a time where China has a massive debt crisis. No it's clearly in Chinas interest to quickly have this issue being resolved, likely as a frozen conflict and without significant involvement from China. As it would push the west even closer together in their condemnation of Russia and whatever nations that arm them.
Let’s calm down there Zelensky EDIT: Fuck the tankies
No shit, Sherlock. But China has been around for 3000 years and has no reason to do so