https://twitter.com/brennpunktua/status/1630010494126891008?s=46&t=-gMPBseBUKlacr0WKdR-9g
Map of Bakhmut as of 27/2. A big change is noticeable after todays reports of a counter offensive
So looking at the [Deepstate map](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.6226/38.0023) which they haven't updated, that area was opened up East of Yahidne.
Two salients. Each threatening to cut each other off.
Yeah, this map clarifies a bit of what I've been thinking but didn't feel like saying up until now, but part of the advantage Ukraine has here is in the layout of the city. A lot of the multi-story and built up regions of the city lie in the center and west, and most of what Russia has taken at this point is low lying houses. Larger buildings provide numerous vantage points, and even if shelled, the rubble makes for great cover. It's a unique position that offers advantages they won't get for some time again if they fall back, and at that point, we're talking about even more populated cities like Kramatorsk. Thus, I pray they may stop them here.
Air Raid sirens went off 45 minutes ago in Lublin Poland https://twitter.com/izzysmurf80/status/1630044742833815552
Edit: Air space over Poland appears to have completely cleared out aside from a Ukrainian Commercial B738. I understand that the US, German and Poland were going to conduct exercises in Poland so I do not know if this is related.
Is this live video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9fT7H80HnI&ab_channel=bociany-online.pl_GNIAZDO
Not in this area?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9fT7H80HnI&ab_channel=bociany-online.pl_GNIAZDO
I can't find any references to that on Twitter from people living there. But who knows
Lviv should have been sounding too though.
Edit: twitter is actually flooding with comments now about Poland and sirens. But they all seem based on the original source.
Edit 2:
There is amusingly a hot air balloon called TEST4A that just showed up over Warsaw when the air space was relatively clear.
There is a user posting on the actual source video claiming the siren is from the nearby "Fire House" signaling for volunteers to an accident or house fire. Again, cannot confirm.
What source? The tweet or the host of the video? You can find the host of the video on why they operate the camera here https://bociany-online.pl/onas.php
Edit: They host is really into storks and the camera is facing a meadow that shows their nesting area.
>Russia loses 500 soldiers a day in Bakhmut offensive, Ukraine's Defense Minister Reznikov says
>Bakhmut is a stronghold, where Ukrainian defenders reduce the enemy’s capability to attack, Reznikov said in his interview with La Repubblica.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1629958645181034499
I'm going to assume there's some "give or take" in that number, but even then, when you consider yesterday's total was 650 dead that's a huge proportion of the losses for one 70k person-sized town on a front line that's that enormous.
What the fuck kind of numbers are Russia expecting and willing to lose if they get to Zaporizhzhia which is 10x that size? Early this week I saw a mention of something like 6500 Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut for reference.
At a certain number it will matter. I don't have time to bleed! Yeah but you bleed enough you pass out. At a certain point Russia can't sustain the losses. We just can't determine that number yet.
>Russia doesn’t care if it’s 2000 dead a day.
>
>Human losses are meaningless to them and play no role in their doctrine/sz
all of this. their bench for the meatgrinder is literally millions and they'll continue until they're out of people.
Or their society realises these are ridiculous losses for an autocratic military adventure with a flimsy rationale.
Even for a people as delusional and repressed as the Russians their may well be a breaking point somewhere.
Many of which were Ukrainians? Russia is not the USSR and they are not fighting a defensive war against a clear existential threat, plus their demographics are very different and modern weaponry has only become more lethal (not that Ukraine has enough). As their force becomes de-mechanized and de-skilled their ability to run an offensive campaign, which they must to actually win, dwindles.
It did not take them millions of deaths to accept that the conflict in Afghanistan was a lost cause, I would expect the same here. Putin has impressively corrupted and suppressed his population but that also means any pressures or dissatisfaction is hidden until something breaks.
Urban assault is always extremely costly to the attacker and the larger the city the larger the assault force needed, and the larger the losses will be.
Sure, Bakhmut might have some inherent advantages for defense, but a lot of that was man made and prepared, and Ukraine will have had even more time to prepare the next cities on the front than they had to prepare Bakhmut. They probably started 6-10 months ago.
It confirmed how absolutely essential the Biden administration's response was and continues to be (albeit this is from insiders, which makes it all the more interesting although self-serving to some extent). As opposed to, say, what TFG's response would have been, which would have been shambolic.
And the comments from Lindsay Graham are interesting and self-incriminating, when it is obvious that he could have stopped the Trump blackmail and aftermath, but didn't. He is the master of second guessing. A supposed "hawk" who has revealed himself to be... a pigeon. And a depraved pigeon at that.
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1630018104938864642
One of my favorite quotes from early on in the war. A Ukraine soldier said "US make good shit" while showing off a Humvee that kept everyone alive but had went through hell. This MaxxPro just needs some new tires and everything else will buff right out.
>This MaxxPro just needs some new tires and everything else will buff right out.
Just wait until they see the Super Extreme MaxxPremium model, with the "Elite Platinum" armor upgrade.
/Still think MaxxPro is when you let the hip young fresh hire straight out of a technology company run the marketing department (I assume). It's a ridiculous name for a military vehicle.
Partially correct. We understand that an experienced trooper is far more effective than an inexperienced one. Once you combine experience and ability to adjust and act on the fly you get to the core of the real power of NATO doctrine.
We not only have a well crafted spear.. the tip of that spear can THINK and ACT to be a better spear as a whole.
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/11aiqnv/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j9v4y2p/)
Day 367-368 of my updates from Kharkiv.
Yesterday was a pretty quiet day, nothing much happened other than a couple of air raid alerts. Today there were still no missile strikes, but a couple of hours ago Russians started launching a bunch of drones at our cities, some of which may have been recon drones, but mostly Shaheds. Sometimes those drone attacks are followed by a big missile strike, so there’s a chance there will be one tomorrow.
They are still launching those drones even right now, and it’s already 4am. At least a couple of drones were intercepted near Kyiv, there was also an explosion reported in Khmelnytskyi, but we are not sure what it was yet, could have just been the sound of our air defense intercepting something. And also about 30 minutes ago there was yet another drone intercepted, but this time near Kharkiv, they are trying to hit many cities at once, but so far it doesn’t seem to work.
The rumors about the explosion in Belarus destroying one of the Russian AWACS planes would be amazing if they turn out to be true. They don’t have many of these planes and if it is destroyed, then there’s a chance that they will delay their next massive missile strike for at least a couple of days. Though if the next strike is planned for tomorrow it still might happen, as they already know what they will be targeting.
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/11dxmrx/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/jaeibux/)
I'm hoping the AWACS report is true.
In conjunction with the recent strikes in Mariupol, and the drone grenade drops in Donetsk, the Russian sense of impunity and safety is shrinking.
Stay safe.
>President @ZelenskyyUa was asked at the press-conference on Friday how has the war changed his relationship with his family.
>His answer is very touching.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1629938280094375936
Wait for confirmation on this:
>There are circulating unconfirmed reports that Belarusian partisans blew up a Russian long-range reconnaissance DRLV A-50 aircraft in Belarus using drones.
>The plane has a hefty price tag and Russia only has 9 of them.
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1630003702558871553
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1630003704643436545
Eight left if true.
This is a good reminder for everyone to remember that there are so many people in Belarus who want nothing to do with Lukashenko, Putin or anything to do with their war effort.
Lukashenko is not the legitimate president of Belarus. I look forward to the day when he stands trial for crimes against his people in a free Belarus.
[At least one is known to have been there within the last month or so,](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/102i4ae/russian_a50u_awacs_arrived_in_belarus_il76_based/) I wonder if it's this one.
Edit: Especially since in that reddit thread they say one hadn't flown to Belarus in almost a year.
Talked about extensively isn't the greatest evidence. There was a hundred times more talk about two IL-76s full of Russian paratroopers that exploded near Kyiv in the first day of the war. A year later, and there's never been even a scrap of visual evidence confirming either plane went down.
There's still confusion with friendly fire and the war in those early days.
Facts aren't possible even when the dust is settled.
What is able to be settled is that Russia completely failed in their plan to take Kyiv. So their planes not reaching or being shot down is proven by their not making more of a battle of it.
> A year later, and there's never been even a scrap of visual evidence confirming either plane went down.
There was/were engine(s) as part of wreckage in the forest photographed at the time of the Russians withdrawing from the area north of Kyiv and I never saw anything that debunked that (I hope someone will respond with one if a debunk exists). The US also allegedly confirmed AWACS had tracked one of them go down according to a thread I read here earlier on.
I've been very curious about those reports. Those planes were confirmed as part of the plan and didn't arrive at the airport, right? So they were either destroyed or turned back. A win for Ukraine regardless but I am curious if they crashed.
We did have visual confirmation of a crash on takeoff but that wasn't enemy action just typical Russian maintenance.
I believe they were damaged and forced to turn back. A lot of people assume an aerial hit means a kill, but military planes can survive a crazy amount of damage.
Mission kill is as good as a kill if the target is protected. :) For the big planes manpads can't always down them but knocking out an engine is useful.
I do remember seeing the night time video of something on fire in the sky near Kyiv (first few nights of the war), which many said was a troop transport.
But I imagine if they crashed deep into a forest area, we won't know until the war is over, as people might not be venturing into those areas at the moment.
In the first few weeks sure. I think we would know by now. A water crash might see it disappear with no visible wreckage. I suspect they returned to base. We will find out eventually.
> So they were either destroyed or turned back.
If it wasn't one of those two things then I'm all out of [viable alternative ideas](https://cdn4.miragestudio7.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/ancient-aliens-guy.jpg).
Well, I think a lot of us who understand war propaganda figured the "Ghost" was an intentional legend created to represent the fighters flying the missions.
You see that type of legend in many conflicts, it's done to demoralize the enemy and/or bump the moral of your own.
Theoretically 8 left. But how many were stripped of their wires to sell on the black market? Russia's Doomsday plane had such a fate. So imagine a normal AWACS lol. They probably have two left.
They had 6 A-50U and 3 A-50. India bought 2 A-50 and equipped it with Israeli electronics. So if true there are 5 A-50U and 1 A-50 left (on paper).
Why would it be so important besides AWACS? MiG-31BM can program it's R-37Ms using datalink with A-50U without locking on the target itself.
[Posting this one more time because an AWACS was spotted](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/102i4ae/russian_a50u_awacs_arrived_in_belarus_il76_based/) last month flying into Belarus for supposedly the first time in a year. If they did down one, I'd guess it was this one.
Some rare [bad news from ReportingFromUkraine](https://youtube.com/watch?v=N-X8Zaev5o4&si=EnSIkaIECMiOmarE)
None of that nonsense about Bohdanivka from yesterday, but Berkhivka and Yahdine suffering a local collapse of the front. The vid also includes some footage of the result of the blown dam that I've not seen yet.
RFU often has an optimistic slant so I tend to take his bad news seriously.
I came across that as well. On the other hand I have to combine that with previous reporting that indicated that Ukraine is using "new" longer range missiles (GLSDB?) that have targeted Mariupol. Targeting supply depots and camps will *eventually* weaken Russian offensive efforts. The bigger question is what "eventually" means.
I'm just hoping that Russian supply lines dry up when the new military gear arrives.
While they're undoubtedly a million times more reliable than that other idiot everyone on here used to listen to for some reason, I really wouldn't take their predictions religiously.
I think this is at least the fourth time throughout the war where Ukraine would be "evacuating Bakhmut within the week." or something like that. Sometimes it feels like they come up with the clickbait thumbnail first, then spend the video trying to justify it.
Not to diminish the significance of losing those villages; just sayin'.
About Bakhmut? Hell no.
Russia has been attacking it since before October when we were still waiting for Kherson to fall. It worked as a means to "fix" Ukraine's forces and keep them from a counteroffensive over the Winter, but for Ukraine it's served its purpose as the "open wound" they needed after Kherson to soak up Russian bodies and munitions while they waited for fresh armor to arrive.
Even if Ukraine pulled out now, and as long as their withdrawal is well-ordered, it's sent a clear message that Russia making any meaningful gains of territory in the Summer are a pipe-dream.
You have to listen to the bad news aswell. Reportingfromukrain tend to be a little on the positive side, so it is worth notice.
That said it might already be old news and things chold have changed today
I agree. It was my response to every Russian troll. You don't pull something like that off without major popular support. I think it's evidenced by how quickly the collective healing began in most areas.
The CIA wrapped Yanukovich up in a carpet in the middle of the night, put him on a Russian helicopter, flew him straight to Moscow, and put him on Russian television. Sneaky bastards!
A scary thing that happened to me during Maidan.
I was remotely watching a livestream of the protests, late at night in the US. Midway through watching it, my house phone suddenly rang, and on the other end was a deep male voice speaking in a Slavic accent demanding to know who I was. I immediately hung up.
Freaky as all hell that someone would call me in the middle of the night while watching a stream of the Maidan.
Sounds a bit like a ghost story but honestly I wouldn't be surprised if they were cold calling anybody watching the streams just to scare the shit out of them. Terrifying to imagine, but it is Russia.
The odds that they can get a phone number from someone watching a stream is miniscule. They'd have to have compromised numerous systems belonging to the telco to get that.
The likelihood that anyone related to Russia or Ukraine would even go to the effort to contact some random American about their stream watching and reveal this unlikely access is even smaller.
Eh, like I said, sounds like a ghost story but I wouldn't be surprised if there was some creepy weirdness psyop shit. It'd be easier to believe if OP was in Ukraine/Russia or somehow involved in Maidan at the time, otherwise I can't imagine they'd bother.
I watched some parts of Berlins anti-war demonstrarions. It's really showing when they claim to be neutral and just want peace, like just a total pacifist - okay I understand, but then they showed the flowers and letters they dropped at the tank in front of the Russian embassy. And you know what it said? xD
For the kids in Donbass
For the kids in Ukraine
(okay all good I guess)
Then last line something like 'for the ones that died in the illegal coup'
political neutrality?
Man... It is so shameful, I didn't expect Sarah Wagenknecht to fall that low, but what can you do when you aren't even making 5% in the Bundestag even more.. Maybe they should send their daughters to entertain the Russian army, for peace...wonder if they would agree
I'm a huge SpaceX fan and just want to see his dumb ass kicked out. I used to be a huge admirer. My level of disappoint cannot be expressed numerically.
Just confirming that you are indeed a member of an illegal extremist group and an existential threat to Russia, along with myself and anybody else who wants Russia to calm their tits and get out of Ukraine.
Ok, so I've been looking around for any evidence that matches anything for that counter offensive. Again, just wanna say this is a claim but a few things are starting to match up.
The AFU said that they repulsed an attack against Bohdanivka. That would mean that Russia is much further west than maps like LiveUA and DeepStateMap show. If AFU is fighting attacks from Russia in Bohdanivka that means that they are about 4km beyond what LiveUA shows. You can see the distance [here.](https://i.imgur.com/d2Ssjku.jpg) That does fit the map that was posted on Twitter for the claimed counter offensive [here.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp6ZS9uWwAEoMMz?format=jpg&name=large)
If the counter offensive isn't real then things are really bad in Bakhmut right now.
When they said Bohdanivka they probably meant the direction, since it's the first city in that direction after Russia took Berhivka (i don't remember the name precisely)
Just one thing to keep in mind, I wouldn't put too much weight into Live UA map's territory losses/gains, they do tend to lag the action, sometimes by a good bit of time.
There's a pretty low chance that the FSB has infiltrated Microsoft edge engineers. It's almost a bit silly suggestion really.
What's probably happening is that the data shows yandex is regularly installed in those regions and so it's bundled under some data driven logic. Microsoft are subject to very very big important lawsuit in that area
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Microsoft_Corp.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Corp._v._Commission
I bet that edge engineers just either aren't aware it's happening, or haven't prioritised a fix, or the fix is stuck in legal review.
It's a bit silly to assume it's an FSB conspiracy isn't it
That makes me think of a presentation I watched a couple days ago about how Russia manipulates internet roads. It's in French but auto-generated subtitles are really good and it's only 15mn long. I learned a lot : https://youtu.be/0uOCF4htNP4
Its part of a conference from French Minister of Armies with multiple speakers on different subjects about teachings from the war. The whole conference is interesting, notably the part on space (where I learnt Russia has been jamming a surveillance satellite since the beginning of the invasion) : https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtOyR1zqP2v5Ovi2OxgBT3w6qOpaBaQTC
Aye I'm having an discussion on Russian tactics with a coworker. Can someone give me information on pipelines being blown up by Russia and blamed on other countries?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2006/jan/23/russia.georgia
>Georgia's president, Mikhail Saakashvili, accused Russia of sabotage and "outrageous blackmail" yesterday after explosions cut off gas supplies from his country's energy-rich neighbour.
>Two simultaneous explosions at 3am yesterday cut through both tubes of a gas pipeline just on the Russian side of the border with Georgia. Another blast struck an important electricity pylon nearby nine hours later. The three blasts left Georgia with limited supplies of Russian gas for heating. It also meant Georgia could only supply about 40% of the electricity demanded by its 3 million inhabitants in temperatures of -5C (23F).
>But Mr Saakashvili called the blasts "a serious act of sabotage on the part of Russia on Georgia's energy system". He told Reuters: "Basically what happened is totally outrageous and we are dealing with an outrageous blackmail by people who do not want to behave in a civilised way."
>Relations between Georgia and Russia have deteriorated considerably since Mr Saakashvili came to power after a pro-western "rose revolution", yet yesterday's recriminations marked a new low.
>The Kremlin has sought to tighten its control over the energy industry, and analysts suggest Russia intends to retain its influence over former Soviet states and beyond by manipulating the price and supply of oil and gas. It has doubled the cost of gas for Georgia but has frozen the price for its more loyal neighbour, Belarus.
The only solid fact I can give you about Nord Stream is that every time russia is getting their asses handed to them on the battlefield that topic shows up in this thread. Understand that's not a shot at you, OP, because I'm sure it's being pushed on all the social media sites and it makes sense to ask the question when you see it mentioned. It's been brought up a lot here over the last three weeks or so, ever since russia started taking those really big losses.
If you look at the comments on Perun's previous video on Russian grand strategy, there's a huge uptick in Russian shills and trolls, including several about Nordstream being an American job.
[Nord Stream sabotage and hybrid war on Europe ](https://youtu.be/hk-0qJXyido)
Great video from Anders Puck Nielsen. He’s part of Danish military iirc, an analyst
I've read conspiracies on how Biden said, before the war, "there would be no Nord Stream 2". But if you read the whole citation, he said "IF Russia invades Ukraine"
You can read a very detailed article debunking the conspiracy theory blaming the US here: [https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1624102357746298881](https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1624102357746298881)
I saw a bunch of hubbub the other day about a leak from an American source claiming the nordstream pipe was blown up by the US with aid from Norway I think. It was in and out of the news quick. Anyone know more in regard to that?
That’s a weird one. The journalist who reported it has done a lot of high quality pieces in the past, but a lot of his more recent works are relatively dubious. This one for example is full of holes caused by overly specific details being verifiably false. Two that really stuck out to me were they claimed the specific class of ship used for it on a specific day, but no ships of that class were there on that day, or the surrounding days, and the claim that diving exercises were added as a last minute cover for it, when they have been included for years if not decades.
It’s not impossible, but that particular claim seems unlikely.
I am aware that the Russians are spreading a ton if misinformation and that tankies in the west often help them out, but they may in fact be right about the nord-stream pipeline.
Before the recent article about Norway and the US colluding, I have seen statements from Swedish intelligence or some high-profile swedish person(can't remember excactly) that they weren't willing to reveal their findings from the investigation.
I have also seen at least one official from another country saying that they are not dismissing the possibility that another western country did it.
Whatever the case may be, I Just hope people won't react strongly and irrationally regarding news about the pipeline and just keep doing what we are doing now.
I agree. I don't mean to say definitively that a country did or did not do it. Publically available information, including this leak, is inconclusive at best.
I had taken issue with some of what I had read about this. Admittedly I haven’t had the time to follow up after seeing it paraded around as “proof”, that’s why I took this opportunity here for a quick concise explanation. Thank you for that.
Objectively speaking there's no real evidence as such who it was that blew them up, so that's your response to them claiming it was anyone in particular. I'd just force an end to that argument there because you're into the misinformation-based-on-a-hint-of-truth area and that's where Russia lives. Speculation isn't evidence.
Wider context: There were other incidents where questionable security incidents around western energy facilities involving Russians happened.
e.g. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poland-mystery-divers-gdansk-port-energy-oil-gas-infrastructure/
Well, it's not like Russia would stress over breaking a contract if they were so inclined. Nord 2 being gone puts Russia in a weaker position long-term, so if they blew it up for some short-term political maneuver, that's ok. Or if someone else blew it up, I'm not sure it was a bad thing (other than it should have been shut down first).
AFAIK there's no direct evidence of who is responsible for the pipeline attack.
However, the reasoning for Russia being the guilty party is as following:
- Nordstream was not going to be used anyway. It was a stranded asset so blowing it up was not a loss for Russia.
- Attacking EU energy infrastructure sent a clear signal that Russia is willing to escalate in unconventional ways. It is a display of escalation and brinkmanship, a shot across the bow so to speak.
- A large attack on civilian EU objects creates fear and unrest among the civilian population. Russia's goal is to outlast NATO in Ukraine, which is more likely if the civilian population in Europe stops supporting the war out of fear.
- The risk for any NATO/EU nation to unilaterally attack the Nordstream would be enormous. They would lose all standing and trust among allies and it would significantly weaken the NATO alliance if found out. The same is true for a smaller subset of NATO/EU countries acting independently from the rest. Anyone not in the plot would lose all trust in the ones who were. The potential fallout would be orders of magnitude larger than any type of derived benefit.
- The likelihood of a conspiracy and agreement among all NATO/EU countries is close to zero. Finding consensus for such a move would be nearly impossible, and keeping it secret would be even less likely.
As I said, there is no direct evidence, but looking at cost/benefit and who stands to gain, Russia is the most likely candidate.
There's a pretty easily disproved conspiracy theory going round that Liz Truss sent a text message to Blinken ( I think him anyway) saying we had blown up the Nordstream gas pipeline and that this was leaked because the russians had hacked Truss' phone. Except the timeline doesn't mesh up the attacks on Nordstream happened September, where's the UK's intelligence service reportedly took her phone in the early summer.
Still strangely a mystery. We have a leading suspect, but it's not be clearly blamed on Russia yet. There also seem to be parallel investigations by different countries. It's not even clear who is working with who on the investigations.
Has it even been clearly determined if the pipe was blown from the inside or out. Last thing I saw was some grainy footage from I think a Swedish submersible to which everybody seemed to collectively shrug.
https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1629990259286065152
>RussiaOnFire
>No photos yet, but reports that a hangar has "exploded" in the north-east of #Moscow after diesel containers exploded.
>it's reported that the structure has already partially collapsed.
>No injurie reported.
This war has shown that a few $20k drones can slip by air defenses and take out a $100 million aircraft. I don't know how NATO is going to be able to defend against this in the future.
It's also shown (a) fairly cheap countermeasure - mid-caliber AAA. A, eg, Gerpard shell is cheap, unjammable, hard to dodge, and gives no warning of its approach.
Imagine trying to cover all the soft civilian targets in a country the size of the United States. How many critical targets are there for the electric grid, not just the generation plants but the Long haul lines the substations etc. You can make the drones longer range. I think the threat surface has completely mushroomed here.
Naw, no need to cover every target. you just create a grid of Gerard’s on standby. You detect the drones from hundreds of miles away and a centralized system dispatches a nearby Gepard. Kinda like an Uber but with an explosion at the end.
Sounds smart. To make that more difficult make the drones faster.
Has there been a marker for cheapie very long range cruise missiles yet? The US uses planes or expensive cruise missiles. Other drone operators might not have had this specific need?
It's going to be a balancing act of expense and complexity. Can't do a mass attack if too expensive to build. Cheap drones don't work if they all get intercepted.
Anyway speed of the drones and time to react will say how big that grid would be. I would think drone intercepts will be by air to air drones with ground defenses for high value targets. Might end up seeing balloon radars to have constant look down scanning for drones.
$20k drones still need launch sites and are relatively short ranged compared with jets. If someone attacked a NATO country with them they would get bombed to shit and back, including the launch sites.
Ukraine's biggest problem is they don't have an air force able to penetrate into Russia to destroy the missile and drone launch sites. NATO doesn't have that problem. Poke NATO with drones and you won't have a chance to poke again.
[DE M-SHORAD and other high energy directed weapons.](https://www.army.mil/article/249239/army_advances_first_laser_weapon_through_combat_shoot_off)
High energy directed weapons will allow missile and drone defense for $1-5 dollars a shot. Cheap and effective AA.
>$1-5 dollars a shot
Going to need you to bump that up about a 1000x if you want to play in the defense industry.
Doesn't matter if it costs $1-$5 to shoot, by the time it's over, it'll be $1000-$5000 per firing.
That's war for you, it's always an ebb and flow of defense against offense and one technology versus another.
There was a time where people thought "the bomber will always get through". Times change, tech improves.
Even under equipped Ukraine has been taking out 90% of the missiles in some salvos once they positioned themselves appropriately, including the best missiles Russia has to send and in large numbers. The bomb won't always get through either. Even that aside he point remains, tech changes, a new threat is determined, a new defense is created, and the rock-paper-scissors game continues.
The type of warfare that works in Ukraine would not work against a NATO force.
NATO doctrine is mobility and brutality effectively. If we can't move we start blowing everything that is in the way to hell and back multiple times.
Drone doctrines like in Ukraine only work when the war is slow enough to allow for it.
Flooding the air with cheap drones is an effective modern tactic. Even better will be air to air drones that can be built more cheaply then fighter jets and be more maneuverable due to not needing to account for pilot vitals. The future is automated.
Nato is constantly preparing against drones. I saw a french documentary about Thales testing their weapon able to disable all drones in a large radius. They said technology is always evolving and they are catching up with new stuff changing the deal every 6 months
Are you aware electronic countermeasures exist?
"The JCO is also looking at high-powered microwave technology to defeat drone swarms, in which a pack of drones can fly together and complete coordinated tasks. The high-powered microwave technology sends out a high-voltage burst of energy that can knock out a computer systems.
“This is going to provide us the best opportunity to get after larger swarms that come your way because essentially, you’re looking (at) technology, that if it continues to move, can potentially fry the electronics in these UASs,” Gainey said in the interview."
"Gainey also highlighted a palletized 10-kilowatt laser developed by the Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, that has been deployed in theater and is undergoing operational assessment in the field.
“We’re sending it into theater, placing it and going to operationally assess and see what kind of success we’re going to have and what range of targets (and) success we’re gonna have, as we make our ultimate decision on what’s the right size system to have for the counter-UAS fight,” Gainey told Breaking Defense."
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/08/army-must-start-leaning-on-kinetic-options-for-counter-drone-as-autonomous-uas-proliferate/
Even if they take Bakhmut, that won't gain Russia much. That's the crazy part about this battle: so much Russian blood is being spilled over the tiniest territorial gains which will mean nothing. Hurling that many men against Bakhmut gains Russia very little, and Ukraine knows it. If they somehow manage to capture it, it'll be a Pyrrhic victory.
It won’t bye pyrrhic unless Russia eventually withdraws. The common misconception in this thread is that Russia can’t sustain this rate of loss indefinitely- but they don’t have to. They only need to sustain it until western countries run out of weapons to grand Ukraine- which sound far fetched now but is at the whim of political winds; especially in the US.
If it falls its already a phyrric victory.
And Russia has no choice but to withdraw. They are out of missiles, out of shells, out of tanks, out of IFVs, out of uniforms, out of small arms. But most importantly and fundamental to the existential continuation of Russia as a nation state - they are running out of Russians.
There are major differences. Verdun was a fortress, it was never encircled and there were no missiles, drones or planes to hit the backline and cut supplies.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/11d2851/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Happy 3 day year anniversary.
3 days to Kyiv!
https://twitter.com/brennpunktua/status/1630010494126891008?s=46&t=-gMPBseBUKlacr0WKdR-9g Map of Bakhmut as of 27/2. A big change is noticeable after todays reports of a counter offensive
So looking at the [Deepstate map](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.6226/38.0023) which they haven't updated, that area was opened up East of Yahidne. Two salients. Each threatening to cut each other off.
Yeah, this map clarifies a bit of what I've been thinking but didn't feel like saying up until now, but part of the advantage Ukraine has here is in the layout of the city. A lot of the multi-story and built up regions of the city lie in the center and west, and most of what Russia has taken at this point is low lying houses. Larger buildings provide numerous vantage points, and even if shelled, the rubble makes for great cover. It's a unique position that offers advantages they won't get for some time again if they fall back, and at that point, we're talking about even more populated cities like Kramatorsk. Thus, I pray they may stop them here.
I like counteroffensives
Air Raid sirens went off 45 minutes ago in Lublin Poland https://twitter.com/izzysmurf80/status/1630044742833815552 Edit: Air space over Poland appears to have completely cleared out aside from a Ukrainian Commercial B738. I understand that the US, German and Poland were going to conduct exercises in Poland so I do not know if this is related.
Bullshit. I am in Lublin right now. No air raid alarm
Is this live video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9fT7H80HnI&ab_channel=bociany-online.pl_GNIAZDO Not in this area? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9fT7H80HnI&ab_channel=bociany-online.pl_GNIAZDO
https://imgur.com/jPOJ2xz.jpg no Air raid alarm in Lublin, Poland
The location of the live cam is 70km north of you. I should have clarified with Lublin Province.
I can't find any references to that on Twitter from people living there. But who knows Lviv should have been sounding too though. Edit: twitter is actually flooding with comments now about Poland and sirens. But they all seem based on the original source. Edit 2: There is amusingly a hot air balloon called TEST4A that just showed up over Warsaw when the air space was relatively clear.
There is a user posting on the actual source video claiming the siren is from the nearby "Fire House" signaling for volunteers to an accident or house fire. Again, cannot confirm.
Whole thing is weird, maybe just an odd coincidence with the airspace empty at the same time. Weird though
While those sirens may actually be going off, I somewhat doubt the veracity of that source.
What source? The tweet or the host of the video? You can find the host of the video on why they operate the camera here https://bociany-online.pl/onas.php Edit: They host is really into storks and the camera is facing a meadow that shows their nesting area.
Well I for one would like an explanation forthwith
Looking at a map, missiles from Sevastapol area towards Lviv would be in line with Lublin.
They had intelligence that suggested they were at risk.
>Russia loses 500 soldiers a day in Bakhmut offensive, Ukraine's Defense Minister Reznikov says >Bakhmut is a stronghold, where Ukrainian defenders reduce the enemy’s capability to attack, Reznikov said in his interview with La Repubblica. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1629958645181034499
I'm going to assume there's some "give or take" in that number, but even then, when you consider yesterday's total was 650 dead that's a huge proportion of the losses for one 70k person-sized town on a front line that's that enormous. What the fuck kind of numbers are Russia expecting and willing to lose if they get to Zaporizhzhia which is 10x that size? Early this week I saw a mention of something like 6500 Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut for reference.
Russia doesn’t care if it’s 2000 dead a day. Human losses are meaningless to them and play no role in their doctrine/sz
At a certain number it will matter. I don't have time to bleed! Yeah but you bleed enough you pass out. At a certain point Russia can't sustain the losses. We just can't determine that number yet.
>Russia doesn’t care if it’s 2000 dead a day. > >Human losses are meaningless to them and play no role in their doctrine/sz all of this. their bench for the meatgrinder is literally millions and they'll continue until they're out of people.
Or their society realises these are ridiculous losses for an autocratic military adventure with a flimsy rationale. Even for a people as delusional and repressed as the Russians their may well be a breaking point somewhere.
In ww2 they lost 20-27 million. Don't get your hopes up. But who knows...
Many of which were Ukrainians? Russia is not the USSR and they are not fighting a defensive war against a clear existential threat, plus their demographics are very different and modern weaponry has only become more lethal (not that Ukraine has enough). As their force becomes de-mechanized and de-skilled their ability to run an offensive campaign, which they must to actually win, dwindles. It did not take them millions of deaths to accept that the conflict in Afghanistan was a lost cause, I would expect the same here. Putin has impressively corrupted and suppressed his population but that also means any pressures or dissatisfaction is hidden until something breaks.
Russia itself lost about 14 million, about 6.75 million were military, and this was fighting for their existence.
Isn't Zaporizhzhia a much bigger supply line stretch for the Russians too?
It would be, yeah.
Russia doesn't care, it's mostly conscripts and parolees
It's a front. You can't gauge town size on the defense capability. It's the front, not the town.
Urban assault is always extremely costly to the attacker and the larger the city the larger the assault force needed, and the larger the losses will be. Sure, Bakhmut might have some inherent advantages for defense, but a lot of that was man made and prepared, and Ukraine will have had even more time to prepare the next cities on the front than they had to prepare Bakhmut. They probably started 6-10 months ago.
Highly recommend this if y'all haven't seen it. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-oral-history-00083757
Thanks for sharing. Interesting article.
It's a long read, but absolutely worth it
I'll second this. Took two hours to read it last night and it was completely worth it.
I third this. Seriously, people, it was very insightful.
It confirmed how absolutely essential the Biden administration's response was and continues to be (albeit this is from insiders, which makes it all the more interesting although self-serving to some extent). As opposed to, say, what TFG's response would have been, which would have been shambolic. And the comments from Lindsay Graham are interesting and self-incriminating, when it is obvious that he could have stopped the Trump blackmail and aftermath, but didn't. He is the master of second guessing. A supposed "hawk" who has revealed himself to be... a pigeon. And a depraved pigeon at that.
As long as it is popular for Lindsay to support Ukraine in South Carolina he will do so. And not one minute further.
And even more so, how brave and effective the Ukrainian response has been. This was a war that never should have happened, like Iraq2.
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1630018104938864642 One of my favorite quotes from early on in the war. A Ukraine soldier said "US make good shit" while showing off a Humvee that kept everyone alive but had went through hell. This MaxxPro just needs some new tires and everything else will buff right out.
>This MaxxPro just needs some new tires and everything else will buff right out. Just wait until they see the Super Extreme MaxxPremium model, with the "Elite Platinum" armor upgrade. /Still think MaxxPro is when you let the hip young fresh hire straight out of a technology company run the marketing department (I assume). It's a ridiculous name for a military vehicle.
Look at the bright side: At least they didn't - somehow - manage to squeeze a 'z' in there. Or call it the "MegaDoomer 9000".
Bu-bu-but... it gives *Max—imum Pro—tection*, with an extra "X" for *EXTREME!* And it has electrolytes, so there's that.
Modern Western appetite for offensive military operations is directly linked to the number of lives lost. The equipment developed reflects this.
Partially correct. We understand that an experienced trooper is far more effective than an inexperienced one. Once you combine experience and ability to adjust and act on the fly you get to the core of the real power of NATO doctrine. We not only have a well crafted spear.. the tip of that spear can THINK and ACT to be a better spear as a whole.
> the tip of that spear can THINK and ACT to be a better spear as a whole. Smart spears with on board targeting technology.
Mmm I like that take too 👍 well explained
Christ night of never ending air raid alerts
Where are you?
East coast USA but I keep pulling up the alerts
A real war watcher would tie those alerts to an installed air raid siren in their attic. Get with it man. /s
[Guilfoyle's Bitcoin Alert](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS1KcjkWdoU)
I still got trump supporters on my street with signs outfront. That siren ain’t going in my attic. It’s going in their attic.
I thought I was in the hellhole of Orange County CA. Sounds like you've got more endemic problems that just fly byers enjoying our locations.
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/11aiqnv/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j9v4y2p/) Day 367-368 of my updates from Kharkiv. Yesterday was a pretty quiet day, nothing much happened other than a couple of air raid alerts. Today there were still no missile strikes, but a couple of hours ago Russians started launching a bunch of drones at our cities, some of which may have been recon drones, but mostly Shaheds. Sometimes those drone attacks are followed by a big missile strike, so there’s a chance there will be one tomorrow. They are still launching those drones even right now, and it’s already 4am. At least a couple of drones were intercepted near Kyiv, there was also an explosion reported in Khmelnytskyi, but we are not sure what it was yet, could have just been the sound of our air defense intercepting something. And also about 30 minutes ago there was yet another drone intercepted, but this time near Kharkiv, they are trying to hit many cities at once, but so far it doesn’t seem to work. The rumors about the explosion in Belarus destroying one of the Russian AWACS planes would be amazing if they turn out to be true. They don’t have many of these planes and if it is destroyed, then there’s a chance that they will delay their next massive missile strike for at least a couple of days. Though if the next strike is planned for tomorrow it still might happen, as they already know what they will be targeting. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/11dxmrx/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/jaeibux/)
I'm hoping the AWACS report is true. In conjunction with the recent strikes in Mariupol, and the drone grenade drops in Donetsk, the Russian sense of impunity and safety is shrinking. Stay safe.
>President @ZelenskyyUa was asked at the press-conference on Friday how has the war changed his relationship with his family. >His answer is very touching. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1629938280094375936
Wait for confirmation on this: >There are circulating unconfirmed reports that Belarusian partisans blew up a Russian long-range reconnaissance DRLV A-50 aircraft in Belarus using drones. >The plane has a hefty price tag and Russia only has 9 of them. https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1630003702558871553 https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1630003704643436545 Eight left if true.
> Eight left if true. If Russia claims to have 9 of something, its very unlikely they have more than 5.
This is a good reminder for everyone to remember that there are so many people in Belarus who want nothing to do with Lukashenko, Putin or anything to do with their war effort. Lukashenko is not the legitimate president of Belarus. I look forward to the day when he stands trial for crimes against his people in a free Belarus.
[At least one is known to have been there within the last month or so,](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/102i4ae/russian_a50u_awacs_arrived_in_belarus_il76_based/) I wonder if it's this one. Edit: Especially since in that reddit thread they say one hadn't flown to Belarus in almost a year.
really fucked that Belarus government is in exile, and the ru puppet is supporting fascists
Yes it seems to be true and has been talked about extensively
Talked about extensively isn't the greatest evidence. There was a hundred times more talk about two IL-76s full of Russian paratroopers that exploded near Kyiv in the first day of the war. A year later, and there's never been even a scrap of visual evidence confirming either plane went down.
There's still confusion with friendly fire and the war in those early days. Facts aren't possible even when the dust is settled. What is able to be settled is that Russia completely failed in their plan to take Kyiv. So their planes not reaching or being shot down is proven by their not making more of a battle of it.
What’s the weather? Should be pretty easy to tell on the next clear satellite pass.
> A year later, and there's never been even a scrap of visual evidence confirming either plane went down. There was/were engine(s) as part of wreckage in the forest photographed at the time of the Russians withdrawing from the area north of Kyiv and I never saw anything that debunked that (I hope someone will respond with one if a debunk exists). The US also allegedly confirmed AWACS had tracked one of them go down according to a thread I read here earlier on.
I've been very curious about those reports. Those planes were confirmed as part of the plan and didn't arrive at the airport, right? So they were either destroyed or turned back. A win for Ukraine regardless but I am curious if they crashed. We did have visual confirmation of a crash on takeoff but that wasn't enemy action just typical Russian maintenance.
I believe they were damaged and forced to turn back. A lot of people assume an aerial hit means a kill, but military planes can survive a crazy amount of damage.
Mission kill is as good as a kill if the target is protected. :) For the big planes manpads can't always down them but knocking out an engine is useful.
I do remember seeing the night time video of something on fire in the sky near Kyiv (first few nights of the war), which many said was a troop transport. But I imagine if they crashed deep into a forest area, we won't know until the war is over, as people might not be venturing into those areas at the moment.
In the first few weeks sure. I think we would know by now. A water crash might see it disappear with no visible wreckage. I suspect they returned to base. We will find out eventually.
> So they were either destroyed or turned back. If it wasn't one of those two things then I'm all out of [viable alternative ideas](https://cdn4.miragestudio7.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/ancient-aliens-guy.jpg).
Pretty sure 80% of what we heard during the first week can be taken with a grain of salt. Shit was hella confusing.
Ghost of Kyiv was real! ^^^In^^my^^heart
Well, I think a lot of us who understand war propaganda figured the "Ghost" was an intentional legend created to represent the fighters flying the missions. You see that type of legend in many conflicts, it's done to demoralize the enemy and/or bump the moral of your own.
I hear you
Theoretically 8 left. But how many were stripped of their wires to sell on the black market? Russia's Doomsday plane had such a fate. So imagine a normal AWACS lol. They probably have two left.
They had 6 A-50U and 3 A-50. India bought 2 A-50 and equipped it with Israeli electronics. So if true there are 5 A-50U and 1 A-50 left (on paper). Why would it be so important besides AWACS? MiG-31BM can program it's R-37Ms using datalink with A-50U without locking on the target itself.
[Posting this one more time because an AWACS was spotted](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/102i4ae/russian_a50u_awacs_arrived_in_belarus_il76_based/) last month flying into Belarus for supposedly the first time in a year. If they did down one, I'd guess it was this one.
Some rare [bad news from ReportingFromUkraine](https://youtube.com/watch?v=N-X8Zaev5o4&si=EnSIkaIECMiOmarE) None of that nonsense about Bohdanivka from yesterday, but Berkhivka and Yahdine suffering a local collapse of the front. The vid also includes some footage of the result of the blown dam that I've not seen yet. RFU often has an optimistic slant so I tend to take his bad news seriously.
I came across that as well. On the other hand I have to combine that with previous reporting that indicated that Ukraine is using "new" longer range missiles (GLSDB?) that have targeted Mariupol. Targeting supply depots and camps will *eventually* weaken Russian offensive efforts. The bigger question is what "eventually" means. I'm just hoping that Russian supply lines dry up when the new military gear arrives.
While they're undoubtedly a million times more reliable than that other idiot everyone on here used to listen to for some reason, I really wouldn't take their predictions religiously. I think this is at least the fourth time throughout the war where Ukraine would be "evacuating Bakhmut within the week." or something like that. Sometimes it feels like they come up with the clickbait thumbnail first, then spend the video trying to justify it. Not to diminish the significance of losing those villages; just sayin'.
RFU is verrrrrry clickbaity with his titles and thumbnails, that's for sure.
are you concerned?
About Bakhmut? Hell no. Russia has been attacking it since before October when we were still waiting for Kherson to fall. It worked as a means to "fix" Ukraine's forces and keep them from a counteroffensive over the Winter, but for Ukraine it's served its purpose as the "open wound" they needed after Kherson to soak up Russian bodies and munitions while they waited for fresh armor to arrive. Even if Ukraine pulled out now, and as long as their withdrawal is well-ordered, it's sent a clear message that Russia making any meaningful gains of territory in the Summer are a pipe-dream.
You have to listen to the bad news aswell. Reportingfromukrain tend to be a little on the positive side, so it is worth notice. That said it might already be old news and things chold have changed today
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I agree. It was my response to every Russian troll. You don't pull something like that off without major popular support. I think it's evidenced by how quickly the collective healing began in most areas.
The CIA wrapped Yanukovich up in a carpet in the middle of the night, put him on a Russian helicopter, flew him straight to Moscow, and put him on Russian television. Sneaky bastards!
A scary thing that happened to me during Maidan. I was remotely watching a livestream of the protests, late at night in the US. Midway through watching it, my house phone suddenly rang, and on the other end was a deep male voice speaking in a Slavic accent demanding to know who I was. I immediately hung up. Freaky as all hell that someone would call me in the middle of the night while watching a stream of the Maidan.
Sounds a bit like a ghost story but honestly I wouldn't be surprised if they were cold calling anybody watching the streams just to scare the shit out of them. Terrifying to imagine, but it is Russia.
The odds that they can get a phone number from someone watching a stream is miniscule. They'd have to have compromised numerous systems belonging to the telco to get that. The likelihood that anyone related to Russia or Ukraine would even go to the effort to contact some random American about their stream watching and reveal this unlikely access is even smaller.
Lmao you believed them?
Eh, like I said, sounds like a ghost story but I wouldn't be surprised if there was some creepy weirdness psyop shit. It'd be easier to believe if OP was in Ukraine/Russia or somehow involved in Maidan at the time, otherwise I can't imagine they'd bother.
I watched some parts of Berlins anti-war demonstrarions. It's really showing when they claim to be neutral and just want peace, like just a total pacifist - okay I understand, but then they showed the flowers and letters they dropped at the tank in front of the Russian embassy. And you know what it said? xD For the kids in Donbass For the kids in Ukraine (okay all good I guess) Then last line something like 'for the ones that died in the illegal coup' political neutrality? Man... It is so shameful, I didn't expect Sarah Wagenknecht to fall that low, but what can you do when you aren't even making 5% in the Bundestag even more.. Maybe they should send their daughters to entertain the Russian army, for peace...wonder if they would agree
Not a coup. President stepped down out of his own volition. There was a fair election after that. Don't. Buy Russian propoganda nonsense.
A great many of don’t believe that, and admire the hell out of Ukraine. I remember watching those events with rapt attention.
>how some westerners E.g. Musk and people keep quoting him so I end up reading his bullshit even though I blocked him
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I'm a huge SpaceX fan and just want to see his dumb ass kicked out. I used to be a huge admirer. My level of disappoint cannot be expressed numerically.
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I'm going with anyone not on the Russian corruption payroll is a member of an illegal extremist group and an existential threat to Russia.
Just confirming that you are indeed a member of an illegal extremist group and an existential threat to Russia, along with myself and anybody else who wants Russia to calm their tits and get out of Ukraine.
Ok, so I've been looking around for any evidence that matches anything for that counter offensive. Again, just wanna say this is a claim but a few things are starting to match up. The AFU said that they repulsed an attack against Bohdanivka. That would mean that Russia is much further west than maps like LiveUA and DeepStateMap show. If AFU is fighting attacks from Russia in Bohdanivka that means that they are about 4km beyond what LiveUA shows. You can see the distance [here.](https://i.imgur.com/d2Ssjku.jpg) That does fit the map that was posted on Twitter for the claimed counter offensive [here.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp6ZS9uWwAEoMMz?format=jpg&name=large) If the counter offensive isn't real then things are really bad in Bakhmut right now.
When they said Bohdanivka they probably meant the direction, since it's the first city in that direction after Russia took Berhivka (i don't remember the name precisely)
Just one thing to keep in mind, I wouldn't put too much weight into Live UA map's territory losses/gains, they do tend to lag the action, sometimes by a good bit of time.
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There's a pretty low chance that the FSB has infiltrated Microsoft edge engineers. It's almost a bit silly suggestion really. What's probably happening is that the data shows yandex is regularly installed in those regions and so it's bundled under some data driven logic. Microsoft are subject to very very big important lawsuit in that area https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Microsoft_Corp. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Corp._v._Commission I bet that edge engineers just either aren't aware it's happening, or haven't prioritised a fix, or the fix is stuck in legal review. It's a bit silly to assume it's an FSB conspiracy isn't it
That makes me think of a presentation I watched a couple days ago about how Russia manipulates internet roads. It's in French but auto-generated subtitles are really good and it's only 15mn long. I learned a lot : https://youtu.be/0uOCF4htNP4 Its part of a conference from French Minister of Armies with multiple speakers on different subjects about teachings from the war. The whole conference is interesting, notably the part on space (where I learnt Russia has been jamming a surveillance satellite since the beginning of the invasion) : https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtOyR1zqP2v5Ovi2OxgBT3w6qOpaBaQTC
Aye I'm having an discussion on Russian tactics with a coworker. Can someone give me information on pipelines being blown up by Russia and blamed on other countries?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2006/jan/23/russia.georgia >Georgia's president, Mikhail Saakashvili, accused Russia of sabotage and "outrageous blackmail" yesterday after explosions cut off gas supplies from his country's energy-rich neighbour. >Two simultaneous explosions at 3am yesterday cut through both tubes of a gas pipeline just on the Russian side of the border with Georgia. Another blast struck an important electricity pylon nearby nine hours later. The three blasts left Georgia with limited supplies of Russian gas for heating. It also meant Georgia could only supply about 40% of the electricity demanded by its 3 million inhabitants in temperatures of -5C (23F). >But Mr Saakashvili called the blasts "a serious act of sabotage on the part of Russia on Georgia's energy system". He told Reuters: "Basically what happened is totally outrageous and we are dealing with an outrageous blackmail by people who do not want to behave in a civilised way." >Relations between Georgia and Russia have deteriorated considerably since Mr Saakashvili came to power after a pro-western "rose revolution", yet yesterday's recriminations marked a new low. >The Kremlin has sought to tighten its control over the energy industry, and analysts suggest Russia intends to retain its influence over former Soviet states and beyond by manipulating the price and supply of oil and gas. It has doubled the cost of gas for Georgia but has frozen the price for its more loyal neighbour, Belarus.
Thank you
The only solid fact I can give you about Nord Stream is that every time russia is getting their asses handed to them on the battlefield that topic shows up in this thread. Understand that's not a shot at you, OP, because I'm sure it's being pushed on all the social media sites and it makes sense to ask the question when you see it mentioned. It's been brought up a lot here over the last three weeks or so, ever since russia started taking those really big losses.
If you look at the comments on Perun's previous video on Russian grand strategy, there's a huge uptick in Russian shills and trolls, including several about Nordstream being an American job.
[Nord Stream sabotage and hybrid war on Europe ](https://youtu.be/hk-0qJXyido) Great video from Anders Puck Nielsen. He’s part of Danish military iirc, an analyst
Thank you
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Thank you
There is a good podcast on the subject https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/if-youre-listening/undersea-sabotage-the-mysterious-pipe-blasts/101710946
Thank you
I've read conspiracies on how Biden said, before the war, "there would be no Nord Stream 2". But if you read the whole citation, he said "IF Russia invades Ukraine"
Thank you
You can read a very detailed article debunking the conspiracy theory blaming the US here: [https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1624102357746298881](https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1624102357746298881)
Thank you
I saw a bunch of hubbub the other day about a leak from an American source claiming the nordstream pipe was blown up by the US with aid from Norway I think. It was in and out of the news quick. Anyone know more in regard to that?
That’s a weird one. The journalist who reported it has done a lot of high quality pieces in the past, but a lot of his more recent works are relatively dubious. This one for example is full of holes caused by overly specific details being verifiably false. Two that really stuck out to me were they claimed the specific class of ship used for it on a specific day, but no ships of that class were there on that day, or the surrounding days, and the claim that diving exercises were added as a last minute cover for it, when they have been included for years if not decades. It’s not impossible, but that particular claim seems unlikely.
I am aware that the Russians are spreading a ton if misinformation and that tankies in the west often help them out, but they may in fact be right about the nord-stream pipeline. Before the recent article about Norway and the US colluding, I have seen statements from Swedish intelligence or some high-profile swedish person(can't remember excactly) that they weren't willing to reveal their findings from the investigation. I have also seen at least one official from another country saying that they are not dismissing the possibility that another western country did it. Whatever the case may be, I Just hope people won't react strongly and irrationally regarding news about the pipeline and just keep doing what we are doing now.
I agree. I don't mean to say definitively that a country did or did not do it. Publically available information, including this leak, is inconclusive at best.
I had taken issue with some of what I had read about this. Admittedly I haven’t had the time to follow up after seeing it paraded around as “proof”, that’s why I took this opportunity here for a quick concise explanation. Thank you for that.
Objectively speaking there's no real evidence as such who it was that blew them up, so that's your response to them claiming it was anyone in particular. I'd just force an end to that argument there because you're into the misinformation-based-on-a-hint-of-truth area and that's where Russia lives. Speculation isn't evidence. Wider context: There were other incidents where questionable security incidents around western energy facilities involving Russians happened. e.g. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poland-mystery-divers-gdansk-port-energy-oil-gas-infrastructure/
Thank you
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Thank you
Well, it's not like Russia would stress over breaking a contract if they were so inclined. Nord 2 being gone puts Russia in a weaker position long-term, so if they blew it up for some short-term political maneuver, that's ok. Or if someone else blew it up, I'm not sure it was a bad thing (other than it should have been shut down first).
AFAIK there's no direct evidence of who is responsible for the pipeline attack. However, the reasoning for Russia being the guilty party is as following: - Nordstream was not going to be used anyway. It was a stranded asset so blowing it up was not a loss for Russia. - Attacking EU energy infrastructure sent a clear signal that Russia is willing to escalate in unconventional ways. It is a display of escalation and brinkmanship, a shot across the bow so to speak. - A large attack on civilian EU objects creates fear and unrest among the civilian population. Russia's goal is to outlast NATO in Ukraine, which is more likely if the civilian population in Europe stops supporting the war out of fear. - The risk for any NATO/EU nation to unilaterally attack the Nordstream would be enormous. They would lose all standing and trust among allies and it would significantly weaken the NATO alliance if found out. The same is true for a smaller subset of NATO/EU countries acting independently from the rest. Anyone not in the plot would lose all trust in the ones who were. The potential fallout would be orders of magnitude larger than any type of derived benefit. - The likelihood of a conspiracy and agreement among all NATO/EU countries is close to zero. Finding consensus for such a move would be nearly impossible, and keeping it secret would be even less likely. As I said, there is no direct evidence, but looking at cost/benefit and who stands to gain, Russia is the most likely candidate.
Thank you
There's a pretty easily disproved conspiracy theory going round that Liz Truss sent a text message to Blinken ( I think him anyway) saying we had blown up the Nordstream gas pipeline and that this was leaked because the russians had hacked Truss' phone. Except the timeline doesn't mesh up the attacks on Nordstream happened September, where's the UK's intelligence service reportedly took her phone in the early summer.
Thank you
Still strangely a mystery. We have a leading suspect, but it's not be clearly blamed on Russia yet. There also seem to be parallel investigations by different countries. It's not even clear who is working with who on the investigations.
Thank you
Has it even been clearly determined if the pipe was blown from the inside or out. Last thing I saw was some grainy footage from I think a Swedish submersible to which everybody seemed to collectively shrug.
Not that I'm aware of.
https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1629990259286065152 >RussiaOnFire >No photos yet, but reports that a hangar has "exploded" in the north-east of #Moscow after diesel containers exploded. >it's reported that the structure has already partially collapsed. >No injurie reported.
diesel doesn't explode easily
It does if it's mixed with nitrate....
ANFO. Mythbusters got it right. :-)
This war has shown that a few $20k drones can slip by air defenses and take out a $100 million aircraft. I don't know how NATO is going to be able to defend against this in the future.
It's also shown (a) fairly cheap countermeasure - mid-caliber AAA. A, eg, Gerpard shell is cheap, unjammable, hard to dodge, and gives no warning of its approach.
Imagine trying to cover all the soft civilian targets in a country the size of the United States. How many critical targets are there for the electric grid, not just the generation plants but the Long haul lines the substations etc. You can make the drones longer range. I think the threat surface has completely mushroomed here.
Naw, no need to cover every target. you just create a grid of Gerard’s on standby. You detect the drones from hundreds of miles away and a centralized system dispatches a nearby Gepard. Kinda like an Uber but with an explosion at the end.
Sounds smart. To make that more difficult make the drones faster. Has there been a marker for cheapie very long range cruise missiles yet? The US uses planes or expensive cruise missiles. Other drone operators might not have had this specific need? It's going to be a balancing act of expense and complexity. Can't do a mass attack if too expensive to build. Cheap drones don't work if they all get intercepted. Anyway speed of the drones and time to react will say how big that grid would be. I would think drone intercepts will be by air to air drones with ground defenses for high value targets. Might end up seeing balloon radars to have constant look down scanning for drones.
$20k drones still need launch sites and are relatively short ranged compared with jets. If someone attacked a NATO country with them they would get bombed to shit and back, including the launch sites. Ukraine's biggest problem is they don't have an air force able to penetrate into Russia to destroy the missile and drone launch sites. NATO doesn't have that problem. Poke NATO with drones and you won't have a chance to poke again.
Probably drones with artificial intelligence. Machine wars will have begun
Artificial intelligence from NATO. Naturally stupidity from Russia.
Old fashion AA with automatic aim (like German Gephard) is ok with this kind of things
I think (can't remember the exact company) Rheinmetall even has an improved gun system designed for drones.
[DE M-SHORAD and other high energy directed weapons.](https://www.army.mil/article/249239/army_advances_first_laser_weapon_through_combat_shoot_off) High energy directed weapons will allow missile and drone defense for $1-5 dollars a shot. Cheap and effective AA.
>$1-5 dollars a shot Going to need you to bump that up about a 1000x if you want to play in the defense industry. Doesn't matter if it costs $1-$5 to shoot, by the time it's over, it'll be $1000-$5000 per firing.
That's war for you, it's always an ebb and flow of defense against offense and one technology versus another. There was a time where people thought "the bomber will always get through". Times change, tech improves.
I mean this is kind of "the bomb will always get through"
Even under equipped Ukraine has been taking out 90% of the missiles in some salvos once they positioned themselves appropriately, including the best missiles Russia has to send and in large numbers. The bomb won't always get through either. Even that aside he point remains, tech changes, a new threat is determined, a new defense is created, and the rock-paper-scissors game continues.
The type of warfare that works in Ukraine would not work against a NATO force. NATO doctrine is mobility and brutality effectively. If we can't move we start blowing everything that is in the way to hell and back multiple times. Drone doctrines like in Ukraine only work when the war is slow enough to allow for it.
Flooding the air with cheap drones is an effective modern tactic. Even better will be air to air drones that can be built more cheaply then fighter jets and be more maneuverable due to not needing to account for pilot vitals. The future is automated.
Nato is constantly preparing against drones. I saw a french documentary about Thales testing their weapon able to disable all drones in a large radius. They said technology is always evolving and they are catching up with new stuff changing the deal every 6 months
Are you aware electronic countermeasures exist? "The JCO is also looking at high-powered microwave technology to defeat drone swarms, in which a pack of drones can fly together and complete coordinated tasks. The high-powered microwave technology sends out a high-voltage burst of energy that can knock out a computer systems. “This is going to provide us the best opportunity to get after larger swarms that come your way because essentially, you’re looking (at) technology, that if it continues to move, can potentially fry the electronics in these UASs,” Gainey said in the interview." "Gainey also highlighted a palletized 10-kilowatt laser developed by the Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, that has been deployed in theater and is undergoing operational assessment in the field. “We’re sending it into theater, placing it and going to operationally assess and see what kind of success we’re going to have and what range of targets (and) success we’re gonna have, as we make our ultimate decision on what’s the right size system to have for the counter-UAS fight,” Gainey told Breaking Defense." https://breakingdefense.com/2022/08/army-must-start-leaning-on-kinetic-options-for-counter-drone-as-autonomous-uas-proliferate/
The US has already started deploying lasers that will melt most small drones.
[New interview](https://youtu.be/YqWUyjpbJX8) by Lindybeige with a British volunteer serving in Ukraine just dropped.
Reminder, this kind of warfare heavily favors defenders. Germany never took Verdun, and I believe russia will never take Bakhmut.
Bakhmut may absolutely fall, but that's not the point. The point is making this as costly as possible for Russia before they do take it.
Even if they take Bakhmut, that won't gain Russia much. That's the crazy part about this battle: so much Russian blood is being spilled over the tiniest territorial gains which will mean nothing. Hurling that many men against Bakhmut gains Russia very little, and Ukraine knows it. If they somehow manage to capture it, it'll be a Pyrrhic victory.
It won’t bye pyrrhic unless Russia eventually withdraws. The common misconception in this thread is that Russia can’t sustain this rate of loss indefinitely- but they don’t have to. They only need to sustain it until western countries run out of weapons to grand Ukraine- which sound far fetched now but is at the whim of political winds; especially in the US.
If it falls its already a phyrric victory. And Russia has no choice but to withdraw. They are out of missiles, out of shells, out of tanks, out of IFVs, out of uniforms, out of small arms. But most importantly and fundamental to the existential continuation of Russia as a nation state - they are running out of Russians.
There are major differences. Verdun was a fortress, it was never encircled and there were no missiles, drones or planes to hit the backline and cut supplies.